Effects of Enclosure on Grassland Ecological and Economic Benefits in Northern China

Grasslands in northern China serve the country as both an ecological barrier and a livestock production base.There,installing enclosures has been becoming the major grassland restoration measure adopted by many local governments.However,the effects of restoration on both ecological and production benefits of grassland remain unclear for implemented grassland restoration policies.Therefore,a representative rangeland in northern China,the Maodeng pasture in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region was selected as the study area,and remote sensing monitoring analyses were carried out to quantify the ecological benefits and economic benefits from 2015 to 2021.The results showed that:1) in terms of ecological benefits,the grassland area with a grassland coverage rate of more than 60% accounts for 32.3% of the regional area,and 86.4% of its grassland grew significantly better than the same period in2015,showing a significant improvement in grassland growth.Using the average amount of carbon per unit area as the ecological benefit evaluation index,it increased by 27.1% to 32.48Tg C/yr from 2015 to 2021.2) In terms of economic benefits,both theoretical grass production and livestock carrying capacity increased from 2015 to 2021.Compared to 2015,the theoretical grass production in 2021 increased by 24.8% to 71 900 t.The livestock carrying capacity reached 52 100 sheep units in 2021,nearly 11 000 sheep units more than that in 2015.During the study period,multiple economic indicators(on a per capita basis of permanent residents) for the pastoral area of Xilinhot City to which the Maodeng pasture belongs,have grown steadily.Per capita total income rose from 29 630 yuan(RMB) in2015 to 62 859 yuan(RMB) in 2021.Relying on grassland resources to develop the pastoral ecology also broadens the potential economic development space.Overall,the establishment of the reserve and the experiment of implanting an enclosure policy have had a significant and positive impact on Maodeng pasture’s development from both an ecological and economic perspective.With the support of scientific evidence,enclosure policy can be extended to more than 110 000 km~2 of grasslands in northern China with similar precipitation and temperature conditions,enhancing the productive and ecological potential of grasslands.The above research results will contribute to the scientific formulation of grassland pasture quality improvement plans in northern China.

Lower Boundary of the Marine Pleistocene in Northern Shelf of the South China Sea

A marine stratigraphic sequence across the Pliocene / Pleistocene boundary has been found in the north-ern continental shelf of the South China Sea. The marine Quaternary deposits in the Yinggehai Basin may ex-ceed 2,000 m in thickness, probably providing the best section for studying the lower boundary of the marinePleistocene in South China. The vertical succession with planktonic foraminifers and nannofossils revealed inboreholes in the basin has been well correlated with that in the international stratotype section of thePliocene / Pleistocene boundary at Vrica, Italy, resulting in the acquirement of a biostratigraphic boundary at1.64 Ma. This boundary, however, does not coincide with any prominent lithological palaeoenvironmentalchanges in the study area and can hardly be used in geological practice. There are, in contrast, significantchanges at the level of LAD of Globorotalia multicamerata sensu lato located below the above-mentionedboundary. The percentage of planktonic foraminifers in the total population and preservation of foraminiferaltests display great changes at this level corresponding to a clear onlap on the seismic profiles and indicating adepositional hiatus at ca. 2.0-2.5 Ma. Since the level can be widely traced in the Pearl River Mouth Basin andthe Beibu Gulf Basin and well corresponds with the marked depositional environmental changes recorded inthe west Pacific and other regions, it is recommended that the Plio / Pleistocene boundary be drawn at the levelof Gr. multicamerata sensu lato LAD, roughly concurrent with the Gauss / Matuyama turn.

Ecological pressures on grassland ecosystems and their conservation strategies in Northern China

In this study,we identified ecological pressures on grassland ecosystems and adaptive countermeasures in Northern China.Our research revealed that the main sources of these pressures included population growth,economic development,resources exploitation,and global climate change,with human-related activities being overriding factors.Overgrazing was an important reason for grassland imbalance,causing soil erosion and desertification,especially during the sensitive spring greening phase.In steppe zones,commercial coal mining was destructive to the ecological environment.Regarding long-term strategies,we recommend that policy-makers devote more consideration to a new conceptual approach for transforming grasslands through shifting the focus from die grassland's traditional production functions to meir ecological functions.Applying this concept,adaptive countermeasures should be developed to reduce human impacts based on the environmental capacities of grasslands.Moreover,we recommend the development of environment-friendly industries and reduction of pressures from human activities as effective measures for maintaining the balance between sustainable economic development and grassland conservation.Lastly,we suggest that restoration of degraded grasslands should conform to the principle of natural vegetation to further improve the ecological adaptability of plants and ecosystem stability.This study is expected to provide scientific support for policy-makers engaged in grassland protection.

N_2O emissions from forest and grassland soils in northern China

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Possible Trajectories of Agricultural Cropping Systems in China from 2011 to 2050

Predicting the possible impacts of future climate change on cropping systems can provide important theoretical support for reforming cropping system and adjusting the distribution of agricultural production in the future. The study was based on the daily data of future B2 climate scenario (2011-2050) and baseline climate condition (1961-1990) from high resolution regional climate model PRECIS (~50 km grid interval). According to climatic divisions of cropping systems in China, the active accumulated temperature stably passing the daily average temperature of 0°C, the extreme minimum temperature and the termination date passing the daily average temperature of 20°C which were justified by dominance as a limitation of different cropping systems in zero-grade zone were investigated. In addition, the possible trajectories of different cropping systems in China from 2011 to 2050 were also analyzed and assessed. Under the projected future B2 climate scenario, from 2011 to 2050, the northern boundaries of double cropping area and triple cropping area would move northward markedly. The most of the present double cropping area would be replaced by the different triple cropping patterns, while current double cropping area would shift towards areas presently dominated by single cropping systems. Thus the shift of multiple cropping areas would lead to a significant decrease of single cropping area. Compared with China’s land area, the percentage cover of single cropping area and double cropping area would decrease slowly, while percentage cover of triple cropping area would gradually increase.

Responses of Grassland Net Primary Productivity to Environmental Variables in Northern China

Various environmental factors affect net primary productivity （NPP） of grassland ecosystem. Extensive reports on the effects of environmental variables on NPP can be found in literature. However, the agreement on the relative importance of various factors in shaping the spatial pattern of grassland NPP has not yet been reached. Here a grassland in situ NPP database comprising 602 samples in northern China for 1980-1999 was developed based on a literature review of published biomass and forage yield field measurements. Correlation analyses and dominance analysis were used to quantify the separate and combined effects of environmental variables （climate topography and soil） on spatial variation in NPP separately. Grassland NPP ranged from 4.76 g C m-2a-1 to 975.94gCm-2a-1, showing significant variations in space. NPP increased with annual precipitation and declined with annual mean temperature significantly. Specifically, precipitation had the greatest impact on deserts, followed by steppes and meadows. Grassland NPP decreased with increasing altitude because of water limitation, and positively correlated with slope, but weakly correlated with aspect. Soil quality showed positive effects on NPP. Annual precipitation was the dominant factor affecting the spatial variability of net primary productivity, followed by elevation.

Shrubs proliferated within a six-year exclosure in a temperate grassland—Spatiotemporal relationships between vegetation and soil variables

Overgrazing has been considered one of the maj or causes that trigger shrub encroachment of grassland. Proliferation of shrubs in grassland is recognized as an important indicator of grassland degradation and desertification. In China, various conservation measures, including enclosures to reduce livestock grazing, have been taken to reverse the trend of grassland desertification, yet shrubs have been reported to increase in the grasslands over the past decades. In late 2007, we set up a 400-m-by-50-m exclosure in a long-term overgrazed temperate grassland in Inner Mongolia, with the ob- jective to quantify the spatiotemporal relationship between vegetation dynamics, soil variables, and grazing exclusion. Soil moisture was continuously monitored within the exclosure, and cover and aboveground biomass of the shrubs were measured inside the exclosure in 2007, 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2013, and outside the exclosure in 2012 and 2013. We found the average shrub cover and biomass significantly increased in the six years by 103 % and 120%, respectively. The result supported the hypothesis that releasing grazing pressure following long-term overgrazing tends to trigger shrub invasion into grassland. Our results, limited to a single gradient, suggest that any conservation measures with quick release of overgrazing pressure by enclosure or other similar means might do just the opposite to accelerate shrub en- croachment in grassland. The changes in vegetation cover and biomass were regressed on the temporal average of the soil moisture content by means of the generalized least square technique to quantify the effect of the spatial autocor- relation. The result indicates that the grass cover and biomass significantly increased with the top, but decreased with the bottom layer soil moisture. The shrub cover and biomass, on the other hand, decreased with the top, but increased with bottom soil moisture, although the regression coefficients for the shrubs were not statistically significant. Hence this study supports the two-layered soil model which assumes grasses and shrubs use belowground resources in dif- ferent depths.

Species richness and composition of shrub-encroached grasslands in relation to environmental factors in northern China

Aims Shrub encroachment has taken place in many of China’s northern grasslands.This study attempts to answer the following questions:which plant communities are present in these shrub-encroached grasslands(SEGs)?What are the species richness and composition of these communities?Which environmental factors determine the spatial distribution thereof?Methods We investigated the community characteristics of 255 SEG plots with a size of 20 m×20 m at 69 locations across grasslands in northern China.In each plot,paired 1-m^(2) quadrats were estab-lished within shrub patches and the neighbouring grassy matrix to record herb species composition.The quantitative character-istics(abundance,coverage and height)of herbs were meas-ured in 0.25-m2 subquadrats,and soil samples were collected in the quadrats.Two-way indicator species analysis(TWINSPAN),detrended canonical analysis(DCA)and canonical correspond-ence analysis(CCA)were used for community clustering and ordination.Important Findings The DCA and TWINSPAN results suggested that the SEGs in northern China can be divided into six community types:Potentilla fruticosa+Carex atrofusca,Spiraea hypericifolia+Festuca ovina,Caragana acanthophylla+Stipa sareptana,Caragana microphylla+Leymus chinensis,Caragana microphylla+Stipa klemenzii and Caragana tibetica+Cleistogenes songorica.At a regional scale,climate and soil nutrients controlled the spatial patterns of species richness and community composition of the SEGs in northern China.Temperature exerted a negative impact,whereas precipitation and nutrients had positive effects on species richness.Among the environmental factors used,climate was the major controller of the variations in commu-nity structure.These results provide new insights into the community composition of SEGs in China and enrich the global dataset of SEGs.

Determinants and identification of the northern boundary of China's tropical zone

The influence of monsoon climatic characteristics makes the tropics of China different from those of other parts of the world. Therefore, the location of the northern boundary of China's tropical zone has been one of the most controversial issues in the study of comprehensive physical regionalisation in China. This paper introduces developments in the study of the northern boundary of China's tropical zone, in which different scholars delimit the boundary with great differences based on different regionalisation objectives, indexes, and methods. The main divergence of opinion is found in different understandings of zonal vegetation, agricultural vegetation type, cropping systems, tropical soil type and tropical characteristics. In this study, we applied the Geo Detector model, which measures the spatial stratified heterogeneity, to validate the northern boundaries of the tropical zone delimited by six principal scholars. The results show that the mean q-statistic value of the higher latitude boundary delimited by Ren Mei'e is the largest(q=0.37), suggesting that, of the rival views, it best reflects the regional differences between China's tropical and subtropical zones, but it is not necessarily suitable for guiding the development of tropical agriculture. The mean values of the q-statistics of Zheng Du's line and Yu Xianfang's line around the Leizhou Peninsula at a lower latitude were smaller, at 0.10 and 0.08 respectively, indicating that the regional differences were smaller than those of Ren Mei'e's boundary. Against the background of global climate change, the climate itself is changing in fluctuation. It is, thus, worth our further research whether the northern boundary of the tropical zone should not be a fixed line but rather should fluctuate within a certain scope to reflect these changes.

中国北方草地生态系统服务评估

北方草地是我国天然草地主体部分,其生态功能对提升生态系统稳定性、保障国家生态安全具有重要的作用。在北方草地生态功能分区基础上,开展2011—2015年不同功能区内防风固沙、土壤保持、水源涵养等生态功能评估,探明其现状和空间格局,为北方草地生态功能分区研究提供评估数据,也为推进草地生态系统保护与修复工作提供科技支撑。结果表明:(1)北方草地防风固沙能力为32.44 t hm^(-2) a^(-1),防风固沙量为89.22亿t/a。半干旱草原区防风固沙能力和固沙量最大,分别为68.76 t hm^(-2) a^(-1)和29.16亿t/a,其固沙量占北方草地固沙总量的32.68%。(2)北方草地土壤保持能力为124.5 t hm^(-2) a^(-1),土壤保持量为243.59亿t/a。土壤保持功能的空间异质性较大,暖性灌草丛区土壤保持能力最大,为431.52 t hm^(-2) a^(-1);高寒草甸区土壤保持量最多,为105.36亿t/a,占北方草地土壤保持总量的43.19%。(3)北方草地水源涵养能力为93.03 m^(3) hm^(-2) a^(-1),水源涵养量为288.98亿m^(3)/a。高寒草甸区和高寒草原区水源涵养能力较大,分别为211.09 m^(3) hm^(-2) a^(-1)和118.04 m^(3) hm^(-2) a^(-1)。两个区域的水源涵养量也较多,分别为125.36亿m^(3)/a和72.13亿m^(3)/a,合占北方草地水源涵养总量的68.34%。整体上,北方半干旱草原区、暖性灌草丛区、高寒草甸区和高寒草原区对发挥我国草地防风固沙、土壤保持、水源涵养等生态多功能效益、提升生态系统服务和稳定性具有极其重要的作用。

Rare earth element geochemistry in soils along arid and semiarid grasslands in northern China

Background:Rare earth elements(REE)are a group of trace elements that behave geochemically coherently.REE fractionation patterns normalized to reference materials provide a powerful tool for documenting pedogenesis.Insoil processes are particularly difficult to illustrate with respect to contemporary and past climate conditions.In this study,we characterize the rare earth element(REE)contents in bulk soils and respective geochemical fractions(e.g.,exchangeable,carbonate‑bound,reducible,and oxidizable fractions)and to decipher the relationships between REE geochemistry components and climatic factors across a large‑scale northern China transect(NCT).Results:Across the NCT,bulk REE concentrations ranged from 55.2 to 241.1μg g^(−1)with a main portion in the residual fraction(49–79%),followed by oxidizable fraction(2–40%),reducible fraction(3–22%),carbonate‑bound fraction(0.1–16%),and negligible exchangeable fraction.The REE contents of geochemical components(carbonate‑bound,reducible,and oxidizable)in topsoils correlated to climate factors(mean annual precipitation,mean annual temperature,potential evaporation,and aridity index(AI)).The normalized abundances to the upper continental crust(UCC)composition show that the middle REE was generally enriched than the light REE and heavy REE in topsoils along the transect.The overall UCC‑normalized bulk REE patterns in topsoils and subsoils were similar,characterized by weak negative Ce anomalies and positive Eu anomalies.Conclusions:Our data in topsoils and depth profiles collectively suggest that cycling of REE was primarily regulated by abiotic processes in area with AI<0.2,while the biological effect on REE circulation in soil played a more effective role in area with AI>0.3.The similar UCC normalized patterns in topsoils suggest that the REE was originated from a common source with limited influences from other sources(e.g.,atmospheric dusts and anthropogenic contribu‑tions).Our results to some extent provide evidence for climatic influence REE distribution patterns both in topsoils and subsoils across the continental‑scale transect.Our investigation gives insights into future studies on vertical REE mobility and its associated biogeochemical pathways.

基于CMIP6的中国北方草地生态系统年总初级生产力时空格局

[目的]揭示我国北方草地年总初级生产力未来时空变化规律,为草地恢复及保护的政策制定提供重要依据。[方法]基于CMIP6中9个地球系统模式总初级生产力(Gross Primary Productivity,GPP)模拟数据,采用多模式集合平均(MME)的方法,在SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5未来情景下预估了21世纪我国北方草地生态系统AGPP的时空变化。[结果](1)多模式集合(MME)模拟的准确性和年度趋势相关系数达到0.83,较其他单个模式更准确。(2)1982—2100年,4个情景均得出我国北方草地AGPP整体呈现上升趋势,温室气体高排放情景下的上升趋势大于温室气体低排放情景下的上升趋势。(3)空间上,我国北方草地平均AGPP在历史及未来情景下均呈西北到东南递增的趋势,SSP1-2.6情景下AGPP年均值最低〔308.03 g C/(m^(2)·a)〕,SSP5-8.5情景下最高〔389.63 g C/(m^(2)·a)〕。(4)在4个未来情景下的不同草地类型中,温性草原AGPP年均值最高〔SSP1-2.6情景下为445.44 g C/(m^(2)·a),SSP2-4.5情景下为474.53 g C/(m^(2)·a),SSP3-7.0情景下为532.42 g C/(m^(2)·a),SSP5-8.5情景下为558.14 g C/(m^(2)·a)〕,稀疏灌丛最低〔SSP1-2.6情景下为128.51 g C/(m^(2)·a),SSP2-4.5情景下为141.31 g C/(m^(2)·a),SSP3-7.0情景下为155.38 g C/(m^(2)·a),SSP5-8.5情景下为167.29 g C/(m^(2)·a)〕。[结论]我国北方草地AGPP未来呈显著增长趋势,不同情景下AGPP的增长趋势各不相同,排放情景越高增长越显著,未来应加强对我国北方草地AGPP变化的研究。

南海北部中生界地震成像制约因素分析

南海北部中生界油气勘探积累了多个年度、多次采集、多种处理方案的地震资料,但地震成像品质总体上仍难以满足目前中生界油气勘探研究需求,对制约地震成像的影响因素认识不一,缺乏系统对比论证。通过对地质背景及沉积特征的分析,以现有二维地震资料为基础,建立典型地质结构模型并正演模拟,对制约中生界地震成像品质的地质、地球物理因素进行剖析对比和论证,从定性和定量的角度明确了不同地质条件下造成现有地震资料品质差的主控因素。研究表明,制约中生界地震成像的主要因素是海底及中新生界之间的两个强反射界面、中生界地层内部波阻抗差异小所导致的低信噪比;绕射波、多次波等各种干扰波异常发育使有效信号难以识别和成像;崎岖海底造成照明能量散射等。南海北部中生界制约地震成像因素的明确为后续中生界地震数据采集、处理提供了有效指导及技术支持,并进一步提出通过适当加大震源容量、提高覆盖次数、深沉放枪缆、高维度,获得更多深层有效反射波能量的采集建议;通过自适应鬼波压制、多域提高信噪比处理及基于频率谐振能量补偿等技术解决弱反射问题,宽频组合解决多次波发育问题,基于地质、折射波增强速度规律认识,沿层高密度速度拾取提高速度分析精度等处理建议。

Biogeographical patterns of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi diversity in China’s grasslands

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi(AMF)are universally mutualistic symbionts that colonize the fine roots of most vascular plants.However,the biogeographical patterns and driving factors of AMF diversity of plant roots in grasslands are not well investigated.In this study,we used high-throughput sequencing techniques and bioinformatics to evaluate the AMF richness of 333 individual plant roots in 21 natural grassland ecosystems in northern China,including the Loess Plateau(LP),the Mongolian Plateau(MP),and the Tibetan Plateau(TP).The AMF richness showed a significant parabolic trend with increasing longitude.In regional situations,the AMF richness in the grasslands of the MP(60.4±1.47)was significantly higher than those of the LP(46.4±1.43)and TP(44.3±1.64).Plant traits(including plant families,genera,and functional groups)explained the most variation in the AMF richness across China's grasslands,followed by energy and water;soil properties had the least effects.The results showed the biogeographical patterns of the AMF richness and the underlying dominant factors,providing synthetic data compilation and analyses in the AMF diversity in China's grasslands.

北方地区典型林草地物候时空变化特征及其对气象因子的响应

为探究北方地区典型植被林地、草地物候特征及其对气候变化的响应,本文基于1982—2015年的GIMMS NDVI 3gv1数据集和气象资料,采用动态阈值法提取植被物候,应用线性回归和偏相关分析法分析林、草地物候时空变化特征及其与气候变化的关系。结果表明:(1)林地生长季长度(LOS)以0.32d/a的速率极显著延长,整体表现为生长季始期(SOS)以-0.18d/a极显著提前,生长季末期(EOS)以0.14d/a极显著推迟。林地SOS提前、EOS推迟和LOS延长的区域面积占比分别为93.3%、90.4%和96.3%。(2)草地LOS以-0.01d/a的速率不显著缩短,表现为SOS以-0.09d/a不显著提前,EOS以-0.10d/a不显著提前。SOS提前、EOS提前和LOS缩短的区域占比为67.5%、69.1%和50%。(3)林地SOS主要受冬末春初的气温升高和降水增加而提前,EOS受夏季气温升高、秋季以及冬末春初降水增加而推迟。(4)草地SOS主要受春季气温升高和短波辐射减少而提前,EOS受秋季气温升高和短波辐射减少而提前,草地物候与气象因子的响应时长小于林地。

干旱对中国北方草原总初级生产力影响的时滞和累积效应

近年来随着全球变暖,干旱事件的增加对植被的光合作用产生更加重要的影响,同时也严重影响了陆地生态系统的平衡。本文基于标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI base v.2.7)和总初级生产力数据集(GOSIF GPP)研究了干旱对中国北方草原GPP的累积和时滞效应,利用Sen’s斜率、Mann-Kendall(MK)趋势检验、Mann-Kendall突变检验研究了GPP和SPEI在研究期内的时空变化,利用Pearson相关分析方法探究了干旱对北方草原GPP的累积和时滞效应。结果表明:(1)2001—2020年期间北方草原多年平均GPP呈现东北地区高、西南地区低的空间分布格局,多年平均SPEI呈现东北地区低、西南地区高的空间分布格局,且SPEI和GPP的年平均值都随时间变化呈现上升趋势。(2)干旱对北方草原84.99%的区域有累积效应,最长累积时间尺度主要集中在3~4个月,覆盖北方草原的39.82%;干旱对北方草原63.11%的区域有滞后效应,且主要发生在7个月,覆盖北方草原的19.73%。(3)通过对比不同水分条件下二者的变化趋势,发现干旱对草原GPP的累积效应强于时滞效应。

藏北地区高寒草甸和高寒草原过渡带与干湿变化关系研究

基于藏北地区植被类型图、1990-2019年叶面积指数(LAI)、气象数据,对比分析了藏北地区高寒草甸和高寒草原过渡带与干湿界线(以干湿指数1.5等值线作为划分半湿润区和半干旱区的分界线)、400 mm等降水量线之间的关系,并探讨了植被分布对不同干湿界线的响应特征。研究结果表明,藏北地区从东南往西北降水量减小,干湿指数增大,地表由湿到干演变,1990-2019年降水量以增多为主,干湿指数则以减小为主,呈湿润化趋势;植被年LAI值显著增加,表明30年间植被生长环境得到改善,且高寒草甸的改善程度高于高寒草原;干湿界线与高寒草甸、高寒草原过渡带的一致性较高,表明干湿指数能更好地表征藏北地区植被分布状况,而400 mm等降水量线整体偏西;干湿界线以东LAI多大于0.6,400 mm等降水量线以西LAI多小于0.1;从年LAI值、年降水量、年干湿指数三者间的相关性分析来看,大部分地区降水量增加,地表状况偏湿均有利于植被活动。

中国北方草原对气候干旱的响应

草原生长动态受气候条件的影响和制约,在很大程度上取决于水分条件。为了较好阐明草原生长与干旱气候关系,利用表征草原生长变化的NDVI(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index)指数和表征干旱的SPI(Standardized Precipitation Index)指数研究了荒漠草原、典型草原、草甸草原与干旱气候的线性关系,表明荒漠草原的生长动态受季节性干旱影响很大,短期、中长期和长期干旱对荒漠草原影响较小。典型草原对季节性干旱响应较强,而对短期、中长期和长期的干旱响应较弱。草甸草原对季节性和长期干旱响应较强。并且草原对降雨量的响应具有时滞效应,水分盈亏对草原的影响是累积效应。利用基于虚拟变量的回归模型和简单回归模型模拟了草原NDVI对SPI指数的响应关系,基于虚拟变量的回归模型显示出对草原NDVI与SPI关系的较优拟合度。表明了草原生长动态对干旱气候响应具有季节性效应。

全球气候变化对中国种植制度可能影响分析Ⅲ.中国北方地区气候资源变化特征及其对种植制度界限的可能影响

【目的】在全球气候变化背景下,分析中国北方地区的热量和降水资源变化特征,以及北方地区农业气候资源和种植制度界限变动情况。【方法】基于中国北方地区14个省(市、自治区)308个气象台站地面观测资料,综合分析热量和降水资源的年际和空间变化趋势。结合中国种植制度气候区划指标,分析从1950s—1980年和1981—2007年种植北界的空间位移情况。在种植制度北界变化敏感地带选择典型站点,运用作物生产潜力逐级订正法计算由一年一熟春玉米、春小麦及冬小麦种植模式改变为一年两熟冬小麦-夏玉米种植模式导致的作物生产潜力变化。【结果】(1)中国北方地区气温普遍升高,≥0℃积温带北移西扩,温度上升的累积效应十分明显,≥0℃积温为每10年升高65.5℃。年降水量呈带状分布,由东南向西北减少,全区年降水量呈减小的趋势,年降水量每10年变化-90—23mm,平均为每10年减少10.6mm。(2)在热量和降水共同影响下,北部中高原半干旱凉温作物一熟区(Ⅱ)面积减少,东北西北低高原半干旱温凉作物一熟区(Ⅲ)在东北地区面积增加,而在西北和华北地区面积减少,东北平原丘陵半湿润温凉作物一熟区(Ⅳ)面积增加,黄淮海水浇地二熟旱地二熟一熟区(Ⅵ)向北移动,总体而言北方地区东北部种植界限空间位移显著,而西南部变化不明显。(3)在种植制度北界变动的敏感地带,作物生产潜力明显改变:在东北平原丘陵半湿润温凉作物一熟区变化为一年二熟区,作物生产潜力增加1979kg.hm-2,相当于单位面积土地周年产量增加15.3%;在东北西北低高原半干旱温凉作物一熟区改变为一年二熟区,作物生产潜力增加7912kg.hm-2,相当于单位面积土地周年产量增加155.2%;在东北西北低高原半干旱温凉作物一熟区春小麦种植改变为春玉米,作物生产潜力增加2873kg.hm-2,相当于单位面积土地周年产量增加51.7%。【结论】全球气候变化背景下,研究区域内≥0℃积温增加,年降水量呈减少的趋势,种植界限敏感区域种植北界明显北移西扩,种植界限变化敏感区域内因种植模式改变带来单位土地面积周年作物产量增加。

可持续生计视角下中国北方草原区牧户脆弱性评价研究

本研究基于可持续生计框架,运用Delphi专家咨询法构建了包含5个目标层指标和15个指标层指标的中国北方草原区牧户脆弱性评价指标体系,测算中国北方草甸草原、典型草原、荒漠草原、沙地草原、草原化荒漠、山地草原6大草原类型15个旗县727户牧户生计资本状况,探讨牧户及区域尺度牧户脆弱性分异特征。研究表明,1)两轮专家咨询的专家意见协调系数分别为0.445和0.692,经卡方检验P<0.01,可见该评价指标体系科学可信;2)中国北方草原区牧户生计资本存量低,牧户家庭脆弱性指数均值为0.2990,脆弱性高;3)依据牧户脆弱性指数的大小,运用K-means Cluster方法进行样本聚类,根据聚类结果可将牧户脆弱性分为高低两类,聚类分析结果通过方差检验,F值极显著;4)高脆弱性牧户的人力资本、自然资本、物质资本、金融资本和社会资本五大类生计资本存量显著低于低脆弱性牧户;5)区域尺度牧户脆弱性指数由高到低依次为山地草原>草原化荒漠>荒漠草原>沙地草原>草甸草原>典型草原,区域尺度牧户脆弱性自西向东依次减小明显地带性规律。