The distribution and ecological risks of antibiotics in surface water in key cities along the lower reaches of the Yellow River:A case study of Kaifeng City,China

A large number of antibiotics have been discharged into rivers by human activities,posing a threat to aquatic ecosystems.The surface water of the Yellow River Basin also suffers antibiotic pollution,which hinders the improvement in the aquatic ecological environment.This study investigated and analyzed the characteristics and assessed the ecological risks of antibiotic pollution in surface water bodies such as canals,rivers and fish ponds in Kaifeng,Henan Province,which is a key city along the lower reaches of the Yellow River.The test results are as follows.A total of 15 types of antibiotics were detected in the surface water.They had a total antibiotic concentration of 12.2-249.9μg/L,of which tetracyclines(TCs)and quinolones accounted for the highest percentages.Six types of quinolones had detection rates of up to 100%,and doxycycline(DC)and oxytetracycline(OTC)had average concentrations of 29.52μg/L1 and 13.71μg/L,respectively.The major canals with water diverted from the Yellow River had total concentrations of quinolones and TCs of 22.0μg/L and 14.9μg/L,respectively,which were higher than those in previous studies.This phenomenon may be related to the decrease in the water flow of the Yellow River during the dry season and the increase in the antibiotic consumption of residents in the context of the Covid-19 outbreak.The upper reaches of the Huiji River in the Xiangfu District had higher antibiotic content than other districts in Kaifeng.Specifically,TCs accounted for 72.38%-91.84%of all antibiotics,and the DC and OTC concentrations were significantly higher than other antibiotics in the upper reaches.As indicated by the ecological risk assessment results,TCs had the highest ecological risks to green algae.Among them,DC had medium-high risks;TC,OTC,and chlortetracycline(CTC)had medium-high risks;trimethoprim(TMP)and lomefloxacin(LOM)had low risks;other TC antibiotics had no risk.Compared with green algae,most antibiotics showed higher ecological risks to daphnia and lower ecological risks to fish.DC and OTC dominate antibiotic pollutants in the surface water in Kaifeng City,and especially in Xiangfu District,where DC and OTC have medium-high risks.The TCs in the major Yellow River showed medium risks to both green algae and daphnia.It can be speculated that the antibiotic pollution in the Yellow River might pose a certain threat to the ecological security of water in Kaifeng City.

The comprehensive evaluation on resource environmental bearing capacity of central cities in the Yellow River Delta-A case study on Dongying City

Dongying City, which is the most important central city in the Yellow River Delta, is located in the estuary of the Yellow River. With a short land formation time, ecological environment is very weak in this area. To realize the sustainable economic development of the Yellow River Delta, resource environment and resource environmental bearing capacity(REBC) must be improved. This study builds assessment system of regional REBC through resource and economic characteristics in Yellow River Delta and uses principal component analysis(PCA) method to evaluate REBC of five counties and districts in Dongying City in 2011-2015 on the dimensions of time and space. Results show that, on the time dimension, Guangrao County is ranked first, Dongying district second for four years and Hekou and Kenli districts with lower ranks in 2012-2015, indicating that more attention needs to be paid to REBC of Hekou and Dongying districts and these two districts should be included into key monitoring areas. From space scale, REBC in five counties and districts has been gradually improving. In order to further develop REBC in Dongying City, measures such as intensifying protection of urban ecological environment and developing circular economy, etc. should be implemented.

Spatiotemporal variations and driving factors of habitat quality in the loess hilly area of the Yellow River Basin:A case study of Lanzhou City,China

Rapid industrialization and urbanization have led to the most serious habitat degradation in China,especially in the loess hilly area of the Yellow River Basin,where the ecological environment is relatively fragile.The contradiction between economic development and ecological environment protection has aroused widespread concern.In this study,we used the habitat quality of Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST-HQ)model at different scales to evaluate the dynamic evolution characteristics of habitat quality in Lanzhou City,Gansu Province of China.The spatiotemporal variations of habitat quality were analyzed by spatial autocorrelation.A Geographical Detector(Geodetector)model was used to explore the driving factors that influencing the spatial differentiation of habitat quality,including natural factors,socio-economic factors,and ecological protection factors.The results showed that the habitat quality index of Lanzhou City decreased from 0.4638 to 0.4548 during 2000-2018.The areas with reduced the habitat quality index were mainly located in the Yellow River Basin and Qinwangchuan Basin,where are the main urban areas and the new economic development areas,respectively.The spatial distribution of habitat quality presented a trend of high in the surrounding areas and low in the middle,and showed a significant positive spatial autocorrelation.With the increase of study scale,the spatial distribution of habitat quality changed from concentrated to dispersed.The spatial differentiation of habitat quality in the study area was the result of multiple factors.Among them,topographic relief and slope were the key factors.The synergistic enhancement among these driving factors intensified the spatial differentiation of habitat quality.The findings of this study can provide a scientific basis for land resources utilization and ecosystem restoration in the arid and semi-arid land.

Coordinated Development of Human Settlement and Economy in County-level Cities in the Yellow River Basin

[Objective] To provide quantification means for comprehensively analyzing the coordinated development of urban human settlement and economy by constructing an index system of economy and human settlement. [Method] By constructing an evaluation index system of economy and human settlement, and using the coordinate measurement model of them, 22 county-level cities in the Yellow River Basin were analyzed. [Result] In the Yellow River Basin, the construction level of economy and human settlement in those county-level cities is low with distinct spatial differences and deteriorating polarization; there is a great spatial corresponding between coordinated development degree and economic level, the higher the economic development level, the higher coordinated development degree in county-level cities; county-level cities around the boundaries of provinces have difficulties in development. [Conclusion] Evaluation standards and models are clear in significance, convenient in application, which can successfully evaluate the coordination of human settlement development in the study region.

Analysis of city centrality based on entropy weight TOPSIS and population mobility:A case study of cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Based on statistical data and population flow data for 2016,and using entropy weight TOPSIS and the obstacle degree model,the centrality of cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)together with the factors influencing centrality were measured.In addition,data for the population flow were used to analyze the relationships between cities and to verify centrality.The results showed that:(1)The pattern of centrality conforms closely to the pole-axis theory and the central geography theory.Two axes,corresponding to the Yangtze River and the Shanghai-Kunming railway line,interconnect cities of different classes.On the whole,the downstream cities have higher centrality,well-defined gradients and better development of city infrastructure compared with cities in the middle and upper reaches.(2)The economic scale and size of the population play a fundamental role in the centrality of cities,and other factors reflect differences due to different city classes.For most of the coastal cities or the capital cities in the central and western regions,factors that require long-term development such as industrial facilities,consumption,research and education provide the main competitive advantages.For cities that are lagging behind in development,transportation facilities,construction of infrastructure and fixed asset investment have become the main methods to achieve development and enhance competitiveness.(3)The mobility of city populations has a significant correlation with the centrality score,the correlation coefficients for the relationships between population mobility and centrality are all greater than 0.86(P<0.01).The population flow is mainly between high-class cities,or high-class and low-class cities,reflecting the high centrality and huge radiating effects of high-class cities.Furthermore,the cities in the YREB are closely linked to Guangdong and Beijing,reflecting the dominant economic status of Guangdong with its geographical proximity to the YREB and Beijing's enormous influence as the national political and cultural center,respectively.

Evolution of the gravel-bedded anastomosing river within the Qihama reach of the First Great Bend of the Yellow River

The anastomosing river that is present within the First Great Bend of the Yellow River is different from other sand-bedded rivers of this type because it contains gravel-bedded materials. It is therefore important to determine whether, or not, the specific characteristics of this anastomosing river are similar to those seen in sand-bedded forms, including the characteristics of erosion and deposition, and the stability of channel and interchannel wetlands. Four Landsat images from 1990, 2001, 2013, and 2016 alongside two Google Earth(GE) images from 2011 and 2013 were utilized in this study in tandem with field sampling and observations to select a 12 km main channel length section of the Qihama reach anastomosing river. This section was then used to determine variations in channel planform and sedimentary characteristics over a 26 year period. The results of this study show that this gravel-bedded anastomosing river has exhibited a high degree of stability overall, and that there has been no obvious channel and wetland bank erosion and deposition. Data also show that over the 26 years of this study, anastomosing belt area increased by 2.43%, while the ratio of land to water area remained almost equal. The number of wetlands has also increased along this river section at a rate as high as 62.16% because of the fragmentation of some small interchannel examples, while the talweg has alternately migrated to either the left or right over long periods of time at a relatively stable rate. Indeed, as a result of the migration of this line, there has been significant turnover in the number of islands within the main channel while bank shift has occurred at a rate of about 5 m/yr. The numerous anastomosing channels within this river section remained very stable over the course of this study, characterized by a mean annual migration rate of just 1 m/yr, while the sediments in bank columnar sections are mainly composed of fine sands or silts with a relatively high clay content. The sediment grain-size distribution curve for this river section contains multiple peaks, distinct from the muddy sediments within bank columnar sections from sand-bedded anastomosing rivers. The dense vegetation within riparian and interchannel wetlands alongside this river reach has also protected anastomosing channels from erosion and maintainedtheir stability, a key feature of this gravel-bedded system.

沿黄城市生态保护与高质量发展耦合协调时空演变分析

为丰富黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展研究,并为沿黄城市经济发展提供对策建议,分别构建生态保护和高质量发展评价指标体系,以60个沿黄地级市为样本单元,采用熵值法对指标赋权并计算2010—2020年沿黄各市生态保护指数、高质量发展指数,采用耦合协调度模型计算生态保护与高质量发展耦合度、协调度并划分协调等级,计算相对发展度以判断生态保护与高质量发展耦合协调类型,分析沿黄城市生态保护与高质量发展耦合协调动态演变情况,结果表明:2010—2020年沿黄城市生态保护与高质量发展协调度大都稳中有升、少数城市呈下降趋势,2020年协调等级整体上还较低,尚有37个城市处于失调状态,生态保护与高质量发展的耦合协调任重道远;从空间上看,沿黄城市生态保护和高质量发展协调度总体上呈现下游>中游>上游的格局,研究时段生态保护与高质量发展协调度平均值大小排序前十位的城市多为沿海城市或省会城市、后十位的城市多为各省(区)的边缘城市,地理位置、资源禀赋、政策扶持程度和经济发展模式等对耦合协调度有重要影响;2020年沿黄城市生态保护与高质量发展耦合协调类型为生态保护滞后型的城市有31个、为均衡型的城市有5个、为生态保护领先型的城市有24个,表明沿黄城市生态保护整体上滞后于高质量发展。

黄河流域乡村集群的空间协同发展路径——以黄河滨州段为例

立足于黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展、乡村振兴国家战略在山东的地域性实践背景,基于对黄河流域乡村集群的空间协同发展路径研究,阐释乡村集群的概念并归纳沿黄乡村集群特征,从黄河流域乡村的发展壁垒入手,将乡村集群类型划分为城乡融合型、带状集聚型、组团提升型等3种集群空间模式,提出统筹体系架构与空间优化两层面的协同路径。随后,以《滨州市黄河沿岸国土空间规划》为例,以229个村庄为样本,构建由城乡融合示范区、特色集聚段、门户提升段构成的“一区三段”乡村集群空间格局,提出“尺度嵌合、显隐结合、城乡融合”的空间协同路径,以及空间多尺度的分类传导和规划多嵌套的分级传导体系,以期为黄河流域乡村高质量发展提供可参考的路径模式。

黄河流域城市能源综合效率时空分异与影响因素研究

经济发展和环境保护的双重压力下,能源效率成为反映一国经济发展质量的关键指标,不断提升能源效率是必然的趋势。本文使用非参数的super-SBM模型、地理信息系统空间分析法、面板Tobit回归和地理加权回归(GWR)模型对黄河流域2007—2018年城市能源综合效率的时空格局和影响因素进行分析。结果表明:①研究期内,城市能源综合效率基本保持平稳,但有下降趋势。效率分布的区域差异有所缩小,且呈现出明显的连片分布特征,具体来说上游城市多处于低效、中低效率区间,中下游城市多位于中低和中高效率区间;②影响因素的Tobit回归结果表明,经济发展水平和绿色创新对城市能源综合效率具有显著正向影响,碳排放水平、产业结构和环境规制对城市能源综合效率具有显著的负向影响,区域异质性回归结果也基本保持不变;③地理加权回归结果表明,各影响因素作用的空间异质性存在并且具有一定分布规律。研究结论为促进黄河流域城市能源综合效率提供思路。

黄河流域城市群水资源利用与城市发展协调水平评价

黄河流域城市群水资源利用与城市发展交互状态是影响流域城市群高质量发展的关键,亟须在可持续发展目标下探讨二者之间的耦合协调关系,为探索黄河流域城市群生态保护与高质量发展协同机制提供新思路。以黄河流域5个城市群为例,依据联合国提出的可持续发展目标,建立2010—2019年水足迹与城市发展指数的耦合协调度及水资源利用差异分析框架,采用Theil变异指数方法,对耦合协调结果的空间差异进行评价。结果表明:2010—2019年黄河流域城市群水足迹年均减少0.43%,城市发展指数年均增长0.73%,二者耦合协调等级呈升—降—升的不稳定状态;城市群水资源利用水平差异是造成城市发展水平差异的主要原因,且在不同城市群发展阶段中水资源利用与城市发展协调关系差异显著。建议构建跨域水资源共治体系、发挥城市群水资源公共政策的调节作用、系统规划城市群水环境保护与水资源开发利用安全格局。

宁夏沿黄城市带土壤重金属分布特征及其生态风险评价

宁夏沿黄城市带是黄河中上游重要的产业聚集区,其土壤健康状况对黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展先行区建设具有重要意义。为摸清沿黄城市带土壤重金属现状及生态风险,该研究取样检测了该区域682个样点的土壤重金属元素含量,分析了其生态风险,并进行了溯源。研究结果表明:(1)宁夏沿黄城市带0~20 cm土壤砷(As)、铬(Cr)、铜(Cu)、锰(Mn)、铅(Pb)、锌(Zn)、镍(Ni)和镉(Cd)8种重金属元素平均值分别为(3.11±1.88)、(60.66±15.64)、(17.86±6.10)、(509.92±186.74)、(17.62±11.10)、(57.36±25.33)、(25.23±4.95)和(0.77±0.49) mg/kg。0~20 cm土层重金属元素平均含量均低于土壤背景值,也低于农用地土壤污染风险筛选值。0~5 cm土层重金属元素含量高于0~20 cm土层,且Cr、Mn、Zn和Cd 4种元素含量超过了土壤背景值。(2)沿黄城市带中As、Cr、Cu、Mn、Pb、Zn和Ni这7种元素对环境污染风险极低。大部分区域土壤Cd含量明显高于背景值,污染风险较高。(3)沿黄城市带重金属元素有5种来源,其中母质源对重金属来源贡献率最高,其次为农业和工业复合源、交通运输源,农业源和工业源对重金属元素贡献小。研究结果表明宁夏沿黄城市带土壤重金属有较高等级的Cd生态风险,值得关注。

资源型城市韧性水平与绿色发展效率耦合的时空分异特征

城市韧性建设和绿色发展已成为资源型城市转型发展的重要方向。以黄河流域资源型城市为研究对象,通过构建城市韧性水平与绿色发展效率的耦合机理,利用物理学耦合模型,定量测度了2009—2019年40个资源型城市的韧性水平与绿色发展效率耦合协调的时空格局;通过构建随机效应面板Tobit模型,探究黄河流域资源型城市韧性水平与绿色发展效率耦合的影响因素。研究发现:(1)黄河流域资源型城市韧性建设成效显著,呈稳步增长态势;绿色发展效率随时间呈“W”形波动增长态势,但总体增长效率不显著。(2)两者耦合度均值在[0.7,0.8]内波动,呈现较高的耦合关系;耦合协调度随时间呈稳步提升态势,从“濒临失调阶段”逐步过渡到“良好协调阶段”。(3)城市韧性水平、绿色发展效率,以及两者间的耦合度和耦合协调度的空间异质性具有一致性,即中下游资源型城市强于上游。(4)政府能力、教育投入和人口规模对耦合协调度的影响存在较显著的空间异质性,而基础设施、产业结构和环境规制的影响具有空间同质性。

智力资本对长江经济带智慧城市建设的作用研究

智慧城市建设是未来我国城市高质量可持续发展的重要选择,也是现阶段我国推进新型工业化、发展新质生产力的重要途径。将智慧城市建设的技术中心主义和人本主义相结合,从资本、人、技术、空间建构智慧城市要素指标,阐释智力资本通过人力素质、智力产出、科技投入、开放水平四大方式促进智慧城市经济增长的作用机理。构建生产函数模型,运用长江经济带2002—2022年面板数据分析11个核心城市智力资本对智慧城市经济增长的影响。结果表明:不同智慧城市的未来发展存在共性与特性,长江经济带智力资本的集聚对智慧城市经济增长有显著的促进作用,其分解要素对不同区域及不同级别智慧城市的经济增长作用呈异质性,而开放水平是现阶段最为重要的因素。在此基础上,提出有利于长江经济带智慧城市经济发展的对策建议:从数字孪生城市建设、产业数字化发展、数字化转型要素集聚等方面入手,实施不同区域、不同等级城市分类指导的智慧城市发展战略;以智慧城市建设的市场需要为导向,聚焦智力产出的市场转化,发挥智力资本的影响推动作用;推进智力资本各要素的有效整合,加强“技术+人本”互嵌,促进数据要素跨域流通。

黄河流域收缩城市“三生”功能耦合协调分析

利用第五、第六和第七次全国人口普查资料对黄河流域的收缩城市进行识别并测算其收缩强度,借助多指标综合评价法、耦合协调度模型分析2010年、2015年和2020年收缩城市的“三生”功能大小及耦合协调度,进一步运用随机森林模型探究其关键影响因素。结果表明:在黄河流域内90个地级市(州、盟)中,持续收缩型城市有27个,阶段收缩型城市有9个,潜在收缩型城市有29个,城市收缩现象显著;不同区域收缩城市的“三生”功能水平差异显著,其中生产和生活功能整体呈上升态势;“三生”功能的耦合协调度呈现由勉强协调向初级协调发展的特征,中、下游区域协调度优于上游,经济社会的快速发展和人民生活水平的提高有助于“三生”功能的耦合协调发展。

低碳城市试点与长江经济带经济高质量发展:影响机制与实证检验

绿色是经济高质量发展的鲜明底色,而作为我国生态文明建设的重要举措,低碳城市试点有助于推动经济高质量发展。本文采用长江经济带2004-2020年108个城市市级面板数据,使用多时点双重差分模型,实证探究低碳城市试点对经济高质量发展的影响效应,研究发现:(1)低碳城市试点有利于提升长江经济带经济高质量发展水平,且政策效果具有滞后性,该结论在进行一系列稳健性检验后依旧成立;(2)异质性分析表明,从区位特征来看,低碳城市试点对长江上游地区经济高质量发展水平的提升效果更明显;从城市人口规模来看,低碳城市试点对人口规模较大城市的政策效果往往更明显;(3)机制分析表明,吸引外商直接投资是低碳城市试点促进长江经济带经济高质量发展的重要传导机制。

数字经济对绿色低碳循环发展的影响研究——以黄河流域沿线城市为例

数字经济已逐渐成为推动城市实现绿色低碳循环发展的关键驱动力。基于2015—2021年我国黄河流域9个省区的面板数据,运用基准回归模型、中介效应模型及机器学习(随机森林模型),实证检验了数字经济对城市绿色低碳循环发展的驱动机理及其效应。研究发现:数字经济能显著推动城市绿色低碳循环发展;技术创新在数字经济促进城市绿色低碳循环发展的影响过程中发挥部分中介作用;数字经济对黄河流域沿线城市绿色低碳循环发展的影响最为关键,其驱动作用呈现出“抑制-增长-抑制”的非线性特征。基于此,提出深挖数字经济发展潜力,优化技术创新环境,以提升绿色低碳循环发展效能的对策建议。

基于双碳目标的黄河流域资源型城市国土空间利用效率时空特征及影响因素

研究目的:构建双碳目标下资源型城市国土空间利用效率评价体系,并以黄河流域为例分析资源型城市国土空间利用效率时空特征及影响因素。研究方法:超效率SBM模型,非参数核密度估计,Tobit模型。研究结果:(1)研究区国土空间利用综合效率表现出平缓增长趋势,不同空间类型表现为城镇空间>农业空间>生态空间,不同区域表现为下游地区>中游地区>上游地区,不同城市类型表现为成长型城市>衰退型城市>再生型城市>成熟型城市。(2)综合效率等级较高的城市多集中于中游和下游地区,中游地区城镇空间和生态空间利用效率较高,下游地区农业空间利用效率相对较高。(3)自然地理因素和经济社会因素共同影响资源型城市国土空间利用效率。研究结论:应科学统筹矿产资源开发与绿色低碳发展之间的关系,严格落实国土空间用途管制制度,因地制宜开展资源型城市国土空间治理,并充分考虑资源型城市发展阶段,系统谋划转型发展道路。

黄河流域城市群碳足迹及隐含碳转移研究

选择黄河流域5个国家级城市群合计71个城市构建了2017年环境扩展的MRIO模型,评估了包括化石能源燃烧､煤炭开采逃逸､农业非能源排放等3个来源的碳足迹,分析了城市群之间以及城市群内部城市､部门之间的隐含碳转移.结果表明:5个城市群碳足迹总计约2478.34Mt,其中化石能源燃烧贡献了86.42%,是碳足迹的主要来源,煤炭开采逃逸和农业非能源排放亦不容忽视,分别贡献了10.09%和3.49%.煤炭开采和洗选业､金属冶炼和压延加工业､电力热力的生产和供应业是碳足迹的重点部门,生产和消费两个视角下合计分别占总碳足迹的62.67%和36.77%.金属冶炼和压延加工业､电力热力的生产和供应业是隐含碳输出的关键部门,输出量合计占城市群内隐含碳转移量的51.43%,批发零售和住宿餐饮业是输入的关键部门,占比为26.79%,金属冶炼和压延加工业→批发零售和住宿餐饮业是隐含碳主要转移路径.碳足迹和隐含碳转出的重点城市多为资源消耗型､重化工产业占比较高的城市,如鄂尔多斯､滨州等.隐含碳转入的重点城市为维持自身发展需要消耗大量其他城市的产品,如青岛､呼和浩特等.碳足迹主要集中在“几”字弯都市圈､山东半岛和中原城市群,三者碳足迹合计占比在生产和消费视角下分别达到了85.89%和85.02%,“几”字弯都市圈是隐含碳输出最大的城市群,输出量约占城市群间转移量的40.68%,中原城市群是隐含碳输入最多的城市群,输入量约占42.24%.研究结果可为制定和完善黄河流域城市群控碳政策和降碳措施提供更充分合理的依据.

基于RSEI的黄河中游地区生态环境质量时空演化特征及驱动因素——以延安市为例

[目的]生态环境质量评价是开展黄河中游地区生态环境保护和生态文明建设的重要基础,探究其生态环境质量动态及不同主导因子对其影响,可为生态环境保护战略与经济发展战略的协调发展提供理论依据。[方法]基于遥感生态指数(remote sensing ecological index,RSEI)并辅以Sen趋势分析、Manna-Kendall突变点检验、变异系数、Hurst法对黄河中游地区延安市1990—2020年的生态环境过去和未来演化特征进行了分析,并利用随机森林和结构方程模型探究了不同阶段RSEI对不同驱动因素的敏感性。[结果](1)延安市近31年生态环境质量整体呈变好趋势。其中,绿度和湿度指标均呈增加趋势,热度指标和干度指标均呈减小趋势,各指标共同促进了延安市的生态环境质量变化。(2)1995年前RSEI为上升趋势,1995—2001年RSEI为下降趋势,2001年后RSEI呈增加趋势。(3)1990—1995年RSEI变化属于较高波动变化,1996—2001年以高波动变化为主,2002—2020年属于较低波动变化。RSEI在未来一段时间内会出现大面积的下降趋势。(4)1990—1995年RSEI受到日最低气温极低值的正影响最大,受到日最高气温的极高值、日最高气温的极低值和干旱的负影响较大;1996—2001年土地利用对RSEI的正影响最大,日最高气温的极低值、干旱和日最低气温的极低值对RSEI为负影响最大;2002—2020年连续5日最大降雨量对RSEI的负影响最大,日最高气温的极低值、日最高气温的极高值和日最低气温的极低值对RSEI为负影响较小,但其均对连续5日最大降雨量产生影响从而间接对RSEI产生较大影响。[结论]近31年来延安市生态环境质量整体呈增加趋势,但气候变化对导致的生态退化现象需要引起政府重视,尽快提出一系列生态修复措施,防止其生态环境进一步恶化。

长江经济带城市灾害风险与应对能力耦合分析

长江经济带具有复杂多变的地理环境与水文条件,分析其主要城市的自然灾害风险以及评估综合应对能力的适应性具有现实紧迫性。建构了自然灾害风险和综合应对能力评价指标体系,评价分析了2014~2020年间重庆、武汉、上海3座中心城市的自然灾害风险与综合应对能力之间协调性程度的变化趋势及差异性,采用灰色关联度法分析探究其影响因素。研究表明:(1) 2014~2020年间长江经济带中心城市自然灾害风险系统与综合应对的协调程度存在差异。其中,重庆市的整体协调度相对优于武汉市和上海市。武汉市和上海市自然灾害风险和综合应对能力协调度呈波动起伏变化的特征。(2)自然地理环境、城市经济发展、产业结构、人口特征对不同城市的协调度表现出差异化的影响力。研究成果对提高长江经济带城市的抗风险能力和减少风险损失具有重要意义。