This study analyzed the impact of land-based contaminants and tertiary industrial structure on economic development in the selected Bohai Bay area,China.Based on panel data spanning 2011-2020,a vector autoregressive(V...This study analyzed the impact of land-based contaminants and tertiary industrial structure on economic development in the selected Bohai Bay area,China.Based on panel data spanning 2011-2020,a vector autoregressive(VAR)model is used to analyze and forecast the short-run and long-run relationships between three industrial structures,pollutant discharge,and economic development.The results showed that the environmental index had a long-term cointegration relationship with the industrial structure economic index.Per capital chemical oxygen demand(PCOD)and per capita ammonia nitrogen(PNH_(3)N)had a positive impact on delta per capita GDP(dPGDP),while per capita solid waste(PSW),the secondary industry rate(SIR)and delta tertiary industry(dTIR)had a negative impact on dPGDP.The VAR model under this coupling system had stability and credibility.The impulse response results showed that the short-term effect of the coupling system on dPGDP was basically consistent with the Granger causality test results.In addition,variance decomposition was used in this study to predict the long-term impact of the coupling system in the next ten periods(i.e.,ten years).It was found that dTIR had a great impact on dPGDP,with a contribution rate as high as 74.35%in the tenth period,followed by the contribution rate of PCOD up to 3.94%,while the long-term contribution rates of PSW,SIR and PNH3N were all less than 1%.The results show that the government should support the development of the tertiary industry to maintain the vitality of economic development and prevent environmental deterioration.展开更多
This paper utilizes cointegration theory,error correcting model and Granger causality testing theory to make an empirical research on the relation between urbanization and GDP in China,and also implements a comparativ...This paper utilizes cointegration theory,error correcting model and Granger causality testing theory to make an empirical research on the relation between urbanization and GDP in China,and also implements a comparative analysis to the relation between three industries and degree of urbanization,the related coeffecient is 0.97,0.95,0.97,0.97.And the result shows a long-term balance between these two factors,and the promoting effect to tertiary industry by urbanization is more obvious.Urbanization and economic growth are the long-term balanced relations.In the long-term balance,every 1% increment of urbanization can make 4.82% increment of GDP;In short-term balance,if the balance depart from the long-term balance at the i-th term,the model will take automatic reversal adjustment with-0.06 adjusting strength at the(i+1)th term,to make it move to the long-term balance.The economic growth onto urbanization is one-way causality relationship,the primary and secondary industry onto urbanization is also one-way causality relationship.However,the tertiary industry onto urbanization is both-way causality relationship.展开更多
Identifying the key influencing factors of water pollution in Jiangxi Province is vital for formulating effective environmental protection measures. Jiangxi Province is located in the central of China. It plays a very...Identifying the key influencing factors of water pollution in Jiangxi Province is vital for formulating effective environmental protection measures. Jiangxi Province is located in the central of China. It plays a very important role in the “Rise of Central China” strategy. In recent years, water pollution in various regions of Jiangxi Province has become more and more serious. Therefore, exploring the main driving factors of water pollution in Jiangxi Province is of great practical significance. In this paper, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach is used to study the long-term equilibrium and short-term dynamic adjustment relationship between economic growth and water pollution in cities of Jiangxi Province from 1998 to 2016. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the water pollution index and the actual GDP of the first type of cities. However, due to the difference in the form and parameters of model, the inverted “U-shaped” relationship of the water pollution index and the actual GDP is not always presented. The regional economic growth of the second type of urban areas leads to increase of pollutants. It is obvious that the deteriorating environment has increased people’s living costs and inhibited economic growth. The contradiction between economic development and environmental pollution in the third type of urban areas is most acute. Therefore, in order to effectively protect the environment, local governments should consider all these factors as well as regional heterogeneity in formulating policies.展开更多
This paper studies a partially nonstationary vector autoregressive(VAR)model with vector GARCH noises.We study the full rank and the reduced rank quasi-maximum likelihood estimators(QMLE)of parameters in the model.It ...This paper studies a partially nonstationary vector autoregressive(VAR)model with vector GARCH noises.We study the full rank and the reduced rank quasi-maximum likelihood estimators(QMLE)of parameters in the model.It is shown that both QMLE of long-run parameters asymptotically converge to a functional of two correlated vector Brownian motions.Based these,the likelihood ratio(LR)test statistic for cointegration rank is shown to be a functional of the standard Brownian motion and normal vector,asymptotically.As far as we know,our test is new in the literature.The critical values of the LR test are simulated via the Monte Carlo method.The performance of this test in finite samples is examined through Monte Carlo experiments.We apply our approach to an empirical example of three interest rates.展开更多
基金supported by the research funds for Coupling Research on Industrial Upgrade and Environmental Management in the Bohai Rim-Technique,methodology,and Environmental Economic Policies(No.42076221).
文摘This study analyzed the impact of land-based contaminants and tertiary industrial structure on economic development in the selected Bohai Bay area,China.Based on panel data spanning 2011-2020,a vector autoregressive(VAR)model is used to analyze and forecast the short-run and long-run relationships between three industrial structures,pollutant discharge,and economic development.The results showed that the environmental index had a long-term cointegration relationship with the industrial structure economic index.Per capital chemical oxygen demand(PCOD)and per capita ammonia nitrogen(PNH_(3)N)had a positive impact on delta per capita GDP(dPGDP),while per capita solid waste(PSW),the secondary industry rate(SIR)and delta tertiary industry(dTIR)had a negative impact on dPGDP.The VAR model under this coupling system had stability and credibility.The impulse response results showed that the short-term effect of the coupling system on dPGDP was basically consistent with the Granger causality test results.In addition,variance decomposition was used in this study to predict the long-term impact of the coupling system in the next ten periods(i.e.,ten years).It was found that dTIR had a great impact on dPGDP,with a contribution rate as high as 74.35%in the tenth period,followed by the contribution rate of PCOD up to 3.94%,while the long-term contribution rates of PSW,SIR and PNH3N were all less than 1%.The results show that the government should support the development of the tertiary industry to maintain the vitality of economic development and prevent environmental deterioration.
文摘This paper utilizes cointegration theory,error correcting model and Granger causality testing theory to make an empirical research on the relation between urbanization and GDP in China,and also implements a comparative analysis to the relation between three industries and degree of urbanization,the related coeffecient is 0.97,0.95,0.97,0.97.And the result shows a long-term balance between these two factors,and the promoting effect to tertiary industry by urbanization is more obvious.Urbanization and economic growth are the long-term balanced relations.In the long-term balance,every 1% increment of urbanization can make 4.82% increment of GDP;In short-term balance,if the balance depart from the long-term balance at the i-th term,the model will take automatic reversal adjustment with-0.06 adjusting strength at the(i+1)th term,to make it move to the long-term balance.The economic growth onto urbanization is one-way causality relationship,the primary and secondary industry onto urbanization is also one-way causality relationship.However,the tertiary industry onto urbanization is both-way causality relationship.
文摘Identifying the key influencing factors of water pollution in Jiangxi Province is vital for formulating effective environmental protection measures. Jiangxi Province is located in the central of China. It plays a very important role in the “Rise of Central China” strategy. In recent years, water pollution in various regions of Jiangxi Province has become more and more serious. Therefore, exploring the main driving factors of water pollution in Jiangxi Province is of great practical significance. In this paper, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach is used to study the long-term equilibrium and short-term dynamic adjustment relationship between economic growth and water pollution in cities of Jiangxi Province from 1998 to 2016. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the water pollution index and the actual GDP of the first type of cities. However, due to the difference in the form and parameters of model, the inverted “U-shaped” relationship of the water pollution index and the actual GDP is not always presented. The regional economic growth of the second type of urban areas leads to increase of pollutants. It is obvious that the deteriorating environment has increased people’s living costs and inhibited economic growth. The contradiction between economic development and environmental pollution in the third type of urban areas is most acute. Therefore, in order to effectively protect the environment, local governments should consider all these factors as well as regional heterogeneity in formulating policies.
文摘This paper studies a partially nonstationary vector autoregressive(VAR)model with vector GARCH noises.We study the full rank and the reduced rank quasi-maximum likelihood estimators(QMLE)of parameters in the model.It is shown that both QMLE of long-run parameters asymptotically converge to a functional of two correlated vector Brownian motions.Based these,the likelihood ratio(LR)test statistic for cointegration rank is shown to be a functional of the standard Brownian motion and normal vector,asymptotically.As far as we know,our test is new in the literature.The critical values of the LR test are simulated via the Monte Carlo method.The performance of this test in finite samples is examined through Monte Carlo experiments.We apply our approach to an empirical example of three interest rates.
