Study of the Discount on Private Placements and Risk of Stock Market Crash in Listed Companies

With the gradual completion of the split-share structure reform,private placement has gradually become the mainstream of refinancing. One of the points that the practical and theoretical circles are widely concerned about is that the private placement price is often higher than the market price at the time of the private placement. High discounts are often accompanied by the transmission of benefits,and the increase in insider information will lead to the risk of a stock market crash? This paper intends to use the data of A-share listed companies from 2006 to 2015 to empirically study the relationship between the discount on private placements and the risk of stock market crash. At the same time,this paper examines whether the degree of information asymmetry plays a regulatory role in the relationship between the discount on private placements and the risk of stock market crash. This paper provides a certain reference for the regulatory authorities to improve the relevant laws and regulations in the private placement,and to provide a certain reference for the protection of the interests of small and medium-sized investors.

Carbon emission trading system and stock price crash risk of heavily polluting listed companies in China:based on analyst coverage mechanism

This study reveals the inconsistencies between the negative externalities of carbon emissions and the recognition condition of accounting statements.Hence,the study identifies that heavily polluting enterprises in China have severe off-balance sheet carbon reduction risks before implementing the carbon emission trading system(CETS).Through the staggered difference-in-difference(DID)model and the propen-sity score matching-DID model,the impact of CETS on reducing the risk of stock price crashes is examined using data from China’s A-share heavily polluting listed companies from 2007 to 2019.The results of this study are as follows:(1)CETS can significantly reduce the risk of stock price crashes for heavily polluting companies in the pilot areas.Specifically,CETS reduces the skewness(negative conditional skewness)and down-to-up volatility of the firm-specific weekly returns by 8.7%and 7.6%,respectively.(2)Heterogeneity analysis further shows that the impacts of CETS on the risk of stock price crashes are more significant for heavily polluting enterprises with the bear market condition,short-sighted management,and intensive air pollution.(3)Mechanism tests show that CETS can reduce analysts’coverage of heavy polluters,reducing the risk of stock price crashes.This study reveals the role of CETS from the stock price crash risk perspective and helps to clarify the relationship between climatic risk and corporate financial risk.

Risk Management via Measuring Impacts of Micro and Macro Economic Factors on Financial Firm Stock Price—A Case of Mitsubishi UFJ in Japan

Mitsubishi UFJ(MUFJ)has made very positive contributions to the overall achievements of the banking industry,deserving its position as one of the leading financial groups in Japan,contributing to helping government stabilizes the market and successfully implement monetary policy.MUFJ is aiming for growth of approximately¥250 billion in net operating profits,with MUFG Group companies,business groups,and the corporate center.Movement of stock price in financial groups such as MUFJ will reflect the business health of bank and financial system and the whole economy.Good business management requires us to consider the impacts of multi micro and macro factors on stock price,and it contributes to promoting business plan and economic policies for economic growth and stabilizing macroeconomic factors.By data collection method through statistics,analysis,synthesis,comparison,quantitative analysis to generate qualitative comments and discussion;using econometric method to perform regression equation and evaluate quantitative results,the article analyzed and evaluated the impacts of six(6)micro and macro economic factors such as:cost,net sale,lending rate,inflation,GPD growth,S&P 500,etc.on stock price of a big financial group,MUFJ in Japan in the period of 2010-2019,both positive and negative sides.The results of quantitative research,in a seven-factor model,show that the decrease in inflation,GDP,and high lending rate has a significant effect on reducing MUFJ stock price with the highest impact coefficient,the second is increase in cost.This research finding and recommended policy also can be used as reference in policy for commercial bank and financial system in many developing countries.

Investor Attention,Analyst Optimism,and Stock Price Crash Risk

This paper used the A-shares listed companies in China as samples,constructed a comprehensive indicator of investor attention,and conducted an empirical analysis on the correlations among investor attention,analyst optimism,and stock price crash risk.The results indicated that investor attention aggravates the stock price crash risk and has a positive effect on analyst optimism.Meanwhile,the analyst optimism plays a mediating role in the positive correlation between investor attention and stock price crash risk.In addition to that,institutional investor attention also has direct and indirect effects on the crash risk.

Corporate pledgeable asset ownership and stock price crash risk

We investigate how a firm’s corporate pledgeable asset ownership(CPAO)affects the risk of future stock price crashes.Using pledgeable asset ownership and crash risk data for a large sample of U.S.firms,we provide novel empirical evidence that a firm’s risk of a future stock price crash decreases with an increase in its pledgeable assets.Our main findings are valid after conducting various robustness tests.Further channel tests reveal that firms with pledgeable assets increase their collateral value,thereby enhancing corporate transparency and limiting bad news hoarding,resulting in lower stock price crash risk.Overall,the results show that having more pledgeable assets enables easier access to external financing,making it less likely that managers will hoard bad news.

Research on the influence of equity pledge on stock price crash risk:based on financial shock of 2015 stock market crisis

The 2015 Chinese stock market crisis triggered liquidation because of equity pledge so that the leverage effect of the small probability event with severe results got intensive attention from investors.It is found that the effects of equity pledge on stock price crash risk reversed significantly before and after the 2015 stock market crisis.In the mechanism analysis,we further find that the equity pledge influenced the stock price crash risk by longer suspension and greater price fluctuation.The shareholding ratio of institutional investors and information environment also had a significant moderating effect on the influence of equity pledge on stock price crash risk.Alternative interpretation tests excluded the tunnel effect and pressure effect by shareholders and incentive effect by management.This study by analysing empirical data provides evidence on the change of investors’risk recognition,which is caused by financial shock,in the Chinese capital market.

净值家族同步性、主动投资能力与FOF策略——基于股票型基金的研究

本文实证研究了开放式股票型基金净值家族同步性与基金能力（业绩、择时择股）、净值暴跌风险之间的关系,并据此构造了FOF策略。在控制了不同层面的影响因素后,研究发现：基金净值家族同步性越强,其业绩越差,净值暴跌风险越大,这主要是因为其择时能力太差,且择股能力也较差;在基金家族里,净值家族同步性越强的基金,其主动投资能力越差,本文据此构造了FOF策略,可获得9.6%的年超额收益。本文的结论对于基金投资,基金评价,FOF策略构造具有重要借鉴意义。

Rumors and price efficiency in stock market:An empirical study of rumor verification on investor Interactive platforms

Using rumor verification data from investor interactive platforms,we investigate the effect of stock market rumors on price efficiency.We find favorable rumors are positively correlated with stock price synchronicity,while unfavorable rumors are negatively correlated with stock price synchronicity.Both favorable and unfavorable rumors are positively correlated with stock mispricing levels,and stock price crash risk.Mechanism tests reveal that favorable rumors about industry leaders have industry spillover effects.The effect of rumors on mispricing levels and stock price crash risk are more pronounced when there are more retail investors.Further analysis shows stronger detrimental impacts of rumors on price efficiency for small-cap companies,companies with low information transparency and companies with low institutional ownership.

基于改进的RiskMetrics模型的股票市场风险度量

对RiskMetrics模型两个假设做出改进,并运用改进的RiskMetrics模型对2007年1月至2018年9月的国内外股票指数日收盘价序列进行建模,实证结果表明:改进的RiskMetrics模型可以更加精准刻画三类股指序列的在险价值。美国股市对利空消息的反应非常剧烈,沪深股市与香港股市之间具有趋同性,但两者对新息冲击的反应有所不同,沪深股市对利空消息与利好消息的反应区别不明显,而香港股市对利空消息的反应明显强于利好消息。另外,三类指数的收益率序列均呈“尖峰厚尾”特性;股票价格波动对冲击的反应速度由高到低依次是美国股市、香港股市、内地股市,而对冲击的持久性由强至弱的排序则恰恰相反。

The potential harms of goodwill impairment avoidance: Evidence based on future performance and stock prices

The rapidly increasing volume of goodwill assets in the capital market generates potential risks due to the possibility of an untimely recognition of goodwill impairment.In this paper,we investigate the financial consequences of goodwill impairment avoidance based on firms’future performance and stock prices.Using Chinese A-share listed firms with goodwill balances,we find that avoiding goodwill impairments negatively affects a firm’s performance growth and increases its risk of a future stock price crash.These adverse effects continue for the three years following the goodwill impairment avoidance.Our results indicate that goodwill impairment avoidance has detrimental impacts on a firm’s future performance and stock price and that these impacts are persistent.Our conclusions are helpful for regulators on how to prevent the risks hidden in goodwill impairment recognition and maintain the stable development of the financial market.

Large Shareholder Tunneling and Risk of Stock Price Crash： Evidence from China

Although several studies have examined the economic consequences of large shareholders＇ tunneling behavior, little attention has been paid to the negative effects of tunneling on firms＇ extreme events. In this article, we investigate how tunneling behavior affects firm-level stock price crashes. The findings indicate that the probability of stock price crashes is positively associated with the extent of tunneling behavior by large shareholders. The positive relationship is more pronounced after the split of share structure reform and is moderated by the firm＇s financial conditions. This study contributes to the emerging body of literature focusing on the economic consequences of tunneling and stock price crashes. The conclusions drawn from the study also provide a frame of reference for investor protection and investment portfolios based on large shareholders＇ tunneling behavior in China.

Can executive mobility reduce the stock price crash risk?Evidence from China

The 21st century has witnessed increasing fluctuations in boththe real economy and financial markets around the world. Howto maintain the stability of the capital market has attracted moreserious attention. This paper examines the impact of executivemobility on the stock price crash risk at the company level. Basedon the data of A-share listed companies during 2010–2019, ourempirical results show that executive mobility can effectivelyreduce the stock price crash risk. Furthermore, our research confirms that employee salaries play an intermediary role in theimpact of executive mobility on the stock price crash risk. Thispaper has important implications for companies in emerging markets to optimise the structure of their executive teams.

Institutional environment and risk of a stock price crash:evidence from China

Stock price crashes damage China’s macro-financial stability,restrict economic growth,and can lead to huge losses in wealth for investors.Therefore,how to reduce the risk for stock price crashes is an important theoretical and practical issue.This paper mainly studies the effects of the institutional environment that creates risks for stock price crashes.Using China’s non-financial A-share listed companies from 1997 to 2012 as an example,this paper finds that the lower the level of government intervention is,the better the legal environment is,the faster the market process in business area is,then the lower the risks for stock price crashes will be.To solve the endogenous problem between the institutional environment and the risk of a stock price crash,this paper uses the number of seaports and whether the commercial ports or leased territories are opened after the first Opium War in Qing Dynasty as instrumental variables of the institutional environment.We find that the above conclusion is still valid with the method of 2SLS regression.Furthermore,this paper also finds that the government intervention index,the legal environment index,and the market index are negatively related to stock price synchronicity to a significant degree.These conclusions illustrate that the institutional environment is an important factor in the healthy and stable development of the capital market,which has important implications for policy markers or regulators to develop policies to promote the stable development of the stock market,to control market risk of listed companies,and to make investment decisions.

Analysis of Stock Splits Based on Risk Theory: Empirical Evidence from the Chinese Stock Markets

The paper first analyzes price change due to stock splits in Chinese stock markets,which shows stock prices typically go up for stock splits.Then theoretical analyses based on risk theory are presented to explain the reason,where the method comes from a new perspective and obtained theoretical conclusions show that stock splits typically make stock price go up if risk-compensation function is convex,and go down if risk-compensation function is concave.Stock prices typically go up for stock splits because risk-compensation functions are mainly convex.The obtained conclusions are consistent with the known results in the last three decades.

Employee Stock Options＂ Accounting for Optimal Hedging, Suboptimal Exercises, and Contractual Restrictions

Employee stock options （ESOs） have become an integral component of compensation in the US. In view of their significant cost to firms, the Financial Accounting Standards Board （FASB） has mandated expensing ESOs since 2004. The main difficulty of ESO valuation lies in the uncertain timing of exercises, and a number of contractual restrictions of ESOs further complicate the problem. We present a valuation framework that captures the main characteristics of ESOs. Specifically, we incorporate the holder＇s risk aversion, and hedging strategies that include both dynamic trading of a correlated asset and static positions in market-traded options. Their combined effect on ESO exercises and costs are evaluated along with common features like vesting periods, job termination risk and multiple exercises. This leads to the study of a joint stochastic control and optimal stopping problem. We find that ESO values are much less than the corresponding Black-Scholes prices due to early exercises, which arise from risk aversion and job termination risk; whereas static hedges induce holders to delay exercises and increase ESO costs.

基于深度学习的投资者情绪挖掘及其对股价崩盘风险的影响

本文基于网络爬虫挖掘东方财富股吧中个股的发帖文本,搭建卷积神经网络和长短时记忆神经网络特征融合模型(LSTM-CNN),对样本股的股吧发帖文本进行情感识别,构建投资者情绪指标并分析了其对股价崩盘风险的影响效应及其机制。实证发现,当期投资者情绪对下一期股价崩盘风险存在显著的正向影响效应,投资者情绪高涨加剧了未来股价崩盘风险;不同市场环境下,情绪对股价崩盘风险影响具有不对称性,熊市状态下投资者情绪对崩盘风险的正向影响效应更为明显。进一步的异质性分析表明,规模较小、股权集中度较低、卖空限制大、公司所在地市场化水平低的样本公司中投资者情绪对股价崩盘风险的影响更为明显。此外,我们发现股票流动性是投资者情绪影响股价崩盘风险的一个重要的中介变量。研究结论有助于从投资者情绪视角来解释股价崩盘风险的形成机理,丰富了对股价崩盘风险影响因素的认识。

公司ESG表现与防范股票市场风险——基于股价同步性的路径分析

本研究选取2010—2021年我国A股上市公司的面板数据,以固定效应模型深入探讨公司的环境、社会和治理(ESG)表现与股价崩盘风险间的联系;并进一步分析了面对外部风险冲击时,ESG表现出色的公司是否展现出更强的韧性,即能够降低股价崩盘风险。同时,本研究通过股价同步性进行路径分析,以更深层次地理解公司的ESG表现和股价崩盘风险间的逻辑联系。研究表明,当公司的ESG表现更为出色时,其股价崩盘的风险也相应降低;相比于国有企业,拥有更出色ESG表现的非国有企业,在减少股价崩盘这方面的效果更优;在面对公共卫生等突发事件时,ESG表现出色的公司,拥有更强的抵御冲击的能力,股价崩盘的可能性更低。股价同步性在ESG表现和股价崩盘风险间产生了遮掩作用,使ESG表现与股价崩盘风险间的负相关性减弱。本研究为探讨股价崩盘的影响因素提供新的研究视角,帮助理解公司ESG表现在资本市场中的作用,对预防和化解金融风险并促进我国资本市场的进一步发展具有理论和现实意义。

企业提高ESG表现能够降低股价崩盘风险吗?

本文以2011—2020年沪深A股上市公司为对象,运用企业ESG表现对股价崩盘风险影响的处理效应模型(Treatment effect model)考察ESG表现对股价崩盘风险的影响。研究结果表明,企业提高ESG表现会抑制股价崩盘风险,符合“价值假说”。影响机制检验表明,媒体与分析师关注度正向调节ESG表现对股价崩盘风险的抑制作用,发挥“互补效应”;企业提高ESG表现通过缓解委托代理冲突抑制股价崩盘风险。进一步分析发现,ESG表现对股价崩盘风险的抑制作用仅在非国有企业和所处地区市场化水平较低的企业中成立,且抑制股价崩盘风险是ESG表现提升企业价值的重要路径。上述结论为推动上市公司履行ESG投资责任、完善风险管理机制和实现企业长期价值提供了经验参考。

股市下行背景下股权质押对民营企业控制权与绩效的影响

随着股权质押规模的不断扩大及市场风险的不断增加,2018年我国股市出现股权质押危机。本文以2018年股价崩盘事件作为外生准自然实验,运用Logit-DID模型研究股市下行时股权质押对上市民营企业控制权与绩效的影响。研究发现:股价下跌时,若企业无股权质押,大股东会增加自身持股,降低控制权丧失风险;当企业股权质押达到一定比例,股价下跌会增加企业控制权丧失风险;企业控制权转移有损未来经营绩效,而缓解股权质押危机的纾困政策可能导致民营企业转变为国有资本控股,通过影响经理人代理问题加剧企业绩效损失。研究结论对优化资本市场监管执行、维持资产价格稳定、保护投资人与上市企业等方面具有重要启示意义。

CEO变更是降低股价崩盘风险的“灵药”吗?——基于财务困境公司的实证研究

结合财务困境的特殊背景,从CEO的角度探讨2007—2020年我国财务困境公司CEO变更对股价崩盘风险的影响。研究发现,财务困境公司的CEO变更与股价崩盘风险之间呈显著负相关关系。将CEO变更分为正常变更和非正常变更后发现,这种负相关关系在非正常变更的情况下更为显著。机制检验显示,CEO变更能够降低财务困境公司的融资约束和代理成本,进而作用于股价崩盘风险。进一步分析发现,CEO变更和非正常变更对股价崩盘风险的降低效应仅在非国有公司、股权制衡度较高以及外部审计质量较低的情况下存在,而正常变更的降低效应却在国有公司更加显著。