The Analysis of Economic Growth Cycle in Henan Province

According to the data of practical GDP time sequences from 1978 to 2009 provided by Henan Statistical Yearbook of every year,Hodrick-Prescott filter model is established,and it is disintegrated into tendency component(potential yield)and fluctuation component(yield gap).The critical division loci of filter model are 4 wave crest years(1980,1988,1996 and 2007),and 3 trough years(1984,1992 and 2002).Thus since the opening up and reform,the economic growth fluctuation of Henan can be divided into 3 complete cycles and 2 incomplete cycles.Based on the economic situation and background within and without province,we preliminarily conclude the stage-characteristics of all growth cycles and the probable reasons of fluctuation.On the whole,the economic growth cycle of Henan takes on astringency to some extent,and sustainability and stability are reinforced,showing the characteristics of growth-type cycle increasingly.

China's economic growth and the inflation cycles since reform and opening to the outside world

This paper analyzes the cyclical characteristics of China’s economic growth and inflation since reform and opening-up, and explores the intrinsic link between the two.The study will be a guideline to keep a good balance between economic growth and inflation.

China＇s Economic Growth Cycles over the Past 60 Years and the Current New Cycle

This paper first summarizes China＇s economic growth rate fluctuations over the past 60 years since 1949 and examines the new developments in China＇s economic structure behind these fluctuations since reform and opening-up in the late 1970s.In tackling the global financial crisis,China is embracing a new economic cycle and must draw upon its economic history to prolong the upward momentum in the new cycle.To do so means maintaining an appropriate growth rate in the new cycle.This paper also analyzes the importance urbanization and the housing sector will play in the new cycle and how to address rising housing prices.

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND CYCLES IN MODERN CHINA

If the theory of cyclical fluctuation can be applied to modern China, the economic development ofChina in this period can be seen as consisting of several stages. At each stage as well as in the wholeperiod, chosen index system is likely to help measure the growth rate. By vertical and horizontal com-parison, this paper will try to settle the disputes on China’s modern economic development.

Nonlinear Differential Equation of Macroeconomic Dynamics for Long-Term Forecasting of Economic Development

In this article we derive a general differential equation that describes long-term economic growth in terms of cyclical and trend components. Equation is based on the model of non-linear accelerator of induced investment. A scheme is proposed for obtaining approximate solutions of nonlinear differential equation by splitting solution into the rapidly oscillating business cycles and slowly varying trend using Krylov-Bogoliubov-Mitropolsky averaging. Simplest modes of the economic system are described. Characteristics of the bifurcation point are found and bifurcation phenomenon is interpreted as loss of stability making the economic system available to structural change and accepting innovations. System being in a nonequilibrium state has a dynamics with self-sustained undamped oscillations. The model is verified with economic development of the US during the fifth Kondratieff cycle (1982-2010). Model adequately describes real process of economic growth in both quantitative and qualitative aspects. It is one of major results that the model gives a rough estimation of critical points of system stability loss and falling into a crisis recession. The model is used to forecast the macroeconomic dynamics of the US during the sixth Kondratieff cycle (2018-2050). For this forecast we use fixed production capital functional dependence on a long-term Kondratieff cycle and medium-term Juglar and Kuznets cycles. More accurate estimations of the time of crisis and recession are based on the model of accelerating log-periodic oscillations. The explosive growth of the prices of highly liquid commodities such as gold and oil is taken as real predictors of the global financial crisis. The second wave of crisis is expected to come in June 2011.

Information Models for Forecasting Nonlinear Economic Dynamics in the Digital Era

The aim of this study was to develop an adequate mathematical model for long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth in the digital age (2020-2050). In addition, the task was to develop a model for forecast calculations of labor productivity in the symbiosis of “man + intelligent machine”, where an intelligent machine (IM) is understood as a computer or robot equipped with elements of artificial intelligence (AI), as well as in the digital economy as a whole. In the course of the study, it was shown that in order to implement its goals the Schumpeter-Kondratiev innovation and cycle theory on forming long waves (LW) of economic development influenced by a powerful cluster of economic technologies engendered by industrial revolutions is most appropriate for a long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth. The Solow neoclassical model of economic growth, synchronized with LW, gives the opportunity to forecast economic dynamics of technologically advanced countries with a greater precision up to 30 years, the time which correlates with the continuation of LW. In the information and digital age, the key role among the main factors of growth (capital, labour and technological progress) is played by the latter. The authors have developed an information model which allows for forecasting technological progress basing on growth rates of endogenous technological information in economics. The main regimes of producing technological information, corresponding to the eras of information and digital economies, are given in the article, as well as the Lagrangians that engender them. The model is verified on the example of the 5th information LW for the US economy (1982-2018) and it has had highly accurate approximation for both technological progress and economic growth. A number of new results were obtained using the developed information models for forecasting technological progress. The forecasting trajectory of economic growth of developed countries (on the example of the USA) on the upward stage of the 6th LW (2018-2042), engendered by the digital technologies of the 4th Industrial Revolution is given. It is also demonstrated that the symbiosis of human and intelligent machine (IM) is the driving force in the digital economy, where man plays the leading role organizing effective and efficient mutual work. Authors suggest a mathematical model for calculating labour productivity in the digital economy, where the symbiosis of “human + IM” is widely used. The calculations carried out with the help of the model show: 1) the symbiosis of “human + IM” from the very beginning lets to realize the possibilities of increasing work performance in the economy with the help of digital technologies;2) the largest labour productivity is achieved in the symbiosis of “human + IM”, where man labour prevails, and the lowest labour productivity is seen where the largest part of the work is performed by IM;3) developed countries may achieve labour productivity of 3% per year by the mid-2020s, which has all the chances to stay up to the 2040s.

Validity Checks for Natural Resource Regulation on Regional Economic Growth in China on the Basis of Provincial Panel Data

We analyze the mechanism of natural resource regulation on regional economic growth and estimate the model based on panel data for 31 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2009. Our findings suggest that a fixed effect model is more appropriate than a mixed cross section or random effect model. A fixed effect model between natural resource regulation and regional economic growth quantity and quality was constructed to check the validity of natural resource regulation on regional economic growth. We found that natural resource regulation is effective at regulating regional economic growth; and natural resource regulation restrains regional economic speed to some extent. The per unit growth of natural resource regulation intensity will cut 24.6 billion CNY in gross domestic product; however, natural resource regulation can improve the quality of regional economic growth. Growth in the per unit natural resource regulation intensity will increase the index of regional economic growth quality by 0.022 units. In summary, these data support the proposal for using natural resources to regulate regional economic growth and transformation.

Impact of natural resource mining on sustainable economic development:The role of education and green innovation in China

As the extraction and usage of natural resources continue to be a double-edged sword-supporting economic growth but deteriorating the environment-we study the impact of natural resource mining on sustainable economic development in the largest(PPP)economy-China.We use province-level data from 2001 to 2020 and employ econometric panel techniques,such as fixed effects,two-stage least squares,and a battery of robustness tests.We further explore the potential effects of education and green innovation in mitigating/exacerbating the role of natural resources in the Chinese provincial economy.The results show that:(1)Natural resource mining hurts sustainable development,verifying the“resource curse”effect.(2)Green innovation and education restrain the negative impact of resource mining on sustainable development,turning the curse into a blessing.(3)A regional heterogeneity is observed in the impact of resource mining on sustainable development,showing more significant effects in the Western and low-urbanized regions.(4)Green innovation and education can assuage the curse effect of natural resources into gospel effect.Policy implications and recommendations are proposed in light of the findings to promote sustainable economic development in China.

Do natural resources impact economic growth:An investigation of P5+1 countries under sustainable management

Natural resources represent the base of our living and the entire economic activity.Their depletion is a major challenge for the economic development of both developed and developing economies.Their effi-cient use is an indispensable requirement and must be the aim of the public policies designed by the authorities worldwide.In this research,we have investigated the impact of the natural resources rent on the economic growth in some major wealthy economies of the world(P5+1 countries namely:US,UK,France,China,Russia,and Germany).We have applied a quantile-on-quantile regression to analyse this impact on different quantiles and a cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lag(CS-ARDL)approach for the panel of these six countries.The Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test was also used to check the causality between natural resource rents and economic growth in these countries.Results show a negative relationship between natural resources rent and economic growth for the panel but a different impact on quantiles in each country.Only for China and the US,a positive effect can be noticed for both lower and higher quantiles of natural resources and economic growth.The Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test shows that natural resources can predict economic growth only in China,the U.S.,and the panel.In contrast,no causality was found for the other four countries included in the panel.We suggest that nations invest in wind and solar projects,use biofuels and nuclear energy,introduce a temporary profit tax to protect consumers from escalating energy prices,and increase energy efficiency in buildings and industry.Businesses would benefit from a regulatory framework that is uniform and exhaustive,as well as easier to traverse and more receptive to innovation and creativity.Public-private partnership investments in innovation,innovation incentives,and environmental sector opportunities may foster long-term economic growth。

A Novel Methodological Approach to Estimate the Impact of Natural Hazard-Induced Disasters on Country/Region-Level Economic Growth

With the increased frequency of extreme weather events and large-scale disasters, extensive societal and economic losses incur every year due to damage of infrastructure and private properties, business disruptions,fatalities, homelessness, and severe health-related issues. In this article, we analyze the economic and disaster data from1970 through 2010 to investigate the impact of disasters on country/region-level economic growth. We leveraged a random parameter modeling approach to develop the growth-econometrics model that identifies risk factors significantly influencing the country/region-level economic growth in the face of natural hazard-induced disasters,while controlling for country/region-and time-specific unobserved heterogeneities. We found that disaster intensity in terms of fatalities and homelessness, and economic characteristics such as openness to trade and a government's consumption share of purchasing power parity(PPP), are the significant risk factors that randomly vary for different countries/regions. Other significant factors found to be significant include population, real gross domestic product(GDP), and investment share of PPP converted GDP per capita. We also found that flood is the most devastating disaster to affect country/region-level economic growth. This growth-econometrics model will help in the policy and decision making of governmentsrelated to the investment needs for pre-and post-disaster risk mitigation and response planning strategies, to better protect nations and minimize disaster-induced economic impacts.

Peculiarities of Innovative Development of Economy in Georgia

Under the global economy,classical economic doctrines cannot reflect every aspect of the country’s economic competitiveness as non-traditional factors of economic development play an equally important role in achieving the country’s economic goals.In the view of the mentioned,knowledge and innovation are essential factors of economic development at the present stage.Consequently,at the present stage,in the process of global competitiveness,the study of innovative economics as a factor of self-establishment is also relevant for the countries with limited natural resources.Thus,the urgency and necessity of researching the existing issue are conditioned by the complex study of the existing economic,political,and institutional factors.Despite theoretical estimates,in the Georgian economic literature today there is practically no comprehensive research and analysis on the opportunities for the development of innovative economics in the country,on the basis of which the formation of the innovative economics should be carried out in Georgia.The goals of the research are to study and analyze the potential and role of Georgia’s opportunities for the development of innovative economics and to determine its impact on the economic development of the country in the process of integration of the modern global economy.

国有企业稳增长:跨周期调节机理与实施路径

稳增长是国有企业的核心功能之一。文章从跨周期调节视角论述了国有企业稳增长的内在机理、经验事实与实施路径,研究发现:国有企业稳增长要坚持发挥国家发展规划的战略导向作用,以做实做强做优实体经济为着力点,以促进经济增长方式转变、结构优化、动力转换为重点,坚持稳中求进方法论,促进高质量发展;国有企业在基础设施、科技创新、区域平衡发展、收入分配、社会责任等领域的跨周期调节表现较为突出;新发展阶段,国有企业稳增长的实施路径包括:拓展有效投资空间和领域、优化国有资本空间行业布局、发挥价格调节机制在降低宏观经济运行成本中的基础性作用、提供更多高质量的基本公共产品和服务。

自然灾害对城市经济增长的影响研究:以洪涝灾害为例

党的二十届三中全会强调,提高防灾减灾救灾能力,推进国家安全体系和能力现代化。基于“防灾责任主体”视角,构建了洪涝灾害影响经济增长的理论模型,在此基础上利用2000-2020年中国城市经济面板数据与气象站逐日数据,以洪涝灾害为例实证考察了自然灾害对城市经济增长的动态影响及其作用机制。研究发现,洪涝灾害强度对城市当年经济增长具有非线性影响,且城市防洪措施越强,经济发展韧性越强。研究结论表明,地方政府在追求经济增长目标的同时,有效地开展自然灾害防范治理工作也是提升城市经济增长的有效途径。

百年变局与大国关系的中长期演变

在百年未有之大变局视角下,大国力量最本质和持久的因素仍然是经济力量。看待中美经济力量变化时,既要重视短期变化,但更要重视长期趋势。从短期来看,中国经济总量赶超美国经济总量的速度有所减缓,但仍存在超越美国的可能。从长期来看,基于PPP测算的经济力量对比,将康德拉季耶夫周期和权力转移理论相结合,有助于更好地理解国际冲突和地缘政治变化。由于收入水平较低的国家基于上述两种算法会有不同的经济地位,而这种差别是造成近年来俄罗斯和印度在国际舞台上冲突性行动加剧的重要原因。日本因为熟悉政府能力与经济增长的复杂关系,倾向于低估中国的长期经济增长前景,进而导致日本在战略上始终追随美国。不过,俄乌冲突使美国组建包括欧盟、日本和印度在内的大联盟的成效大打折扣。

体育产业基地政策与城市经济增长——基于国家体育产业示范基地的准自然实验

文章基于产业布局理论、空间异质性理论和内生增长理论,利用中国314个地级城市2001—2020年的面板数据,以体育产业示范基地建设政策为准自然实验,使用倾向得分匹配和多期双重差分法(PSM-DID),系统考察了国家体育产业示范基地政策对城市经济增长的净效应,并对其异质性及作用机制进行了识别。研究发现:国家体育产业示范基地政策对地区的经济增长具有积极影响;国家体育产业示范基地政策效应受资源存量的非线性影响,影响轨迹呈倒U型曲线,且体育产业示范基地为中西部地区及较低级别城市带来的经济增长效应显著大于东部沿海地区及较高级别城市;体育产业示范基地政策通过人力资本聚集效应、技术增长效应对城市经济产生作用。基于研究结论,应从推动政策积极向外围城市下沉、发挥政策的挤入效应、打破低端供给路径依赖、加快塑造全产业链、加快推动数字基础制度建设等维度出发,为充分发挥体育产业示范基地政策的经济效应、助力中国现代化产业体系建设、促进区域协调发展提供政策支持。

农旅融合、要素流动与县域经济增长

农旅融合是践行“绿水青山就是金山银山”理念的良好载体和生动实践。在理论分析和模型推演的基础上,利用休闲农业与乡村旅游示范县政策设计准自然实验,并基于2008-2019年中国1778个县域的面板数据,采用多时点双重差分模型,考察农旅融合发展对县域经济增长的影响。结果表明,农旅融合发展对县域经济增长具有显著的推动作用。该结论在经过平行趋势检验、反事实检验等多重稳健性检验后依旧成立。机制分析表明,农旅融合发展主要是通过吸引资本流入、加快非农转移和推动技术进步来提高县域经济发展水平,进一步凸显出要素流动在县域经济增长过程中的传导作用。此外,从资源禀赋看,农旅融合经济增长效应的发挥,不仅依赖于县域内部旅游生态资源,对外部交通条件等基础设施也有较高要求。同时,东部地区县域的农旅融合发展能发挥出更明显的经济增长效应。可见,基于本地资源优势推进农旅融合发展,并进一步补齐县域交通等基础设施建设短板,是推动县域经济增长的重要选项。

数字经济与实体经济融合如何赋能经济增长——基于国内国际双循环视角

推动数字经济与实体经济深度融合对经济增长意义重大。本文运用熵值法、耦合模型测度数实融合水平,并采用固定效应模型、中介效应模型实证考察其对经济增长的影响及作用机理。结果表明,数实融合能够显著促进经济增长;机制研究表明,数实融合通过拉动消费需求畅通国内大循环、扩大贸易规模畅通国际大循环来促进经济增长;区域异质性结果表明,数实融合对中西部地区和非长江经济带的地区促进作用较强。因此,政府部门应该加强数字技术创新,促进数实融合;建设内部消费市场,提升居民收入;拓展贸易渠道,畅通国际循环。

自然生长周期小龙虾与短周期养殖小龙虾蛋白质组差异分析

目的研究自然生长周期小龙虾与短周期养殖小龙虾样品之间所存在的蛋白质组分差异,以及差异表达蛋白行使的功能。方法采集自然生长周期的小龙虾样品以及高蛋白饲料养殖的短周期养殖小龙虾样品,利用高分辨质谱非标记定量蛋白质组学技术进行蛋白质组分析,样品经两两比较后得到差异表达蛋白,并进行基因本体论(gene ontology,GO)、京都基因与基因组百科全书(kyoto encyclopedia of genes and genomes,KEGG)分析。结果样品共定量到3071个蛋白质,样品经两两比较,差异表达蛋白质的数量分别为57、138、143个,短周期养殖小龙虾与自然生长周期小龙虾间蛋白差异更为明显,经GO注释和KEGG通路分析,结果显示差异蛋白主要参与在代谢过程、多细胞生物过程、刺激反应等过程中,同时特异性表达蛋白主要具有约束、调节分子功能、结构分子活性等功能,并主要富集在代谢途径、疾病、内质网中蛋白质加工等相关通路中,其中显著差异蛋白戊二酰辅酶A脱氢酶、肌钙蛋白、肌球蛋白重链激酶、酚氧化酶激活因子2等与肌肉的颜色、稳定性以及嫩度、新鲜度、肌纤维特性、肉质等密切相关。结论本研究得出的部分差异蛋白与肌肉颜色、嫩度等品质指标密切相关,为阐明自然生长周期小龙虾与短周期养殖小龙虾肌肉的品质形成机制奠定基础,为后续加工方法的选择提供依据。

日本经济低迷三十年:特征事实、政策应对与启示镜鉴

20世纪90年代以来,日本经济陷入长期低迷,具体表现为经济长期低速增长、持续通缩、消费持续疲软、私营部门投资长期不足和低利率成为常态。分要素来看,资本投入和劳动投入对日本经济增长的贡献均呈现下降趋势,全要素生产率逐渐成为日本经济增长的首要动力。日本潜在经济增速维持在0.5%—1%,增速缺口多数年份为负,且绝对值明显拉大。通过国际比较可发现,日本经济增速放缓属正常现象,但在面对“黑天鹅”事件和“灰犀牛”事件时表现得较为脆弱。从宏观经济的短期走势来看,日本经济周期波动呈现以下新趋势:一是经济周期平均时间拉长,特别是扩张期明显变长;二是经济周期波动变小,扩张期经济增长乏力。此外,日本和美国经济周期协同性较强。为应对经济长期低迷,日本先后以提高资源配置效率和解决经济社会中长期发展问题为出发点,对产业政策进行了两次调整,并通过财政重建路线和再通胀路线的交替,不断调整财政政策和货币政策。日本宏观经济政策对中国的启示在于,不断优化政府和市场的关系,充分重视健全宏观经济治理体系。

自然资本对中国经济增长的深层影响及机制

自然资本是经济增长的重要物质支撑,对可持续发展具有关键作用。该研究将多类经济增长理论的代理变量共同纳入扩展的MRW模型,利用BMA方法解决模型不确定性难题,明确区分可再生自然资本与不可再生自然资本,兼顾依赖度与丰裕度,基于省级面板数据考察自然资本对中国经济增长的直接与深层影响,并借助CART算法开展多重机制分析。研究发现:①兼顾表层理论与深层理论构建模型,自然资本对中国经济增长具有深层影响,且影响方向因代理指标而异,其依赖度“诅咒”效应明显但丰裕度“祝福”效应突出,该全景视角可以调和已有文献对“资源诅咒”存在性的严重分歧。②两类自然资本的增长效应迥然不同,可再生自然资本的影响符合“资源中性”假说,不可再生自然资本依赖度的“诅咒”效应和丰裕度的“祝福”效应都很强烈,其对经济增长的整体效应取决于资源利用模式。③高物质资本积累机制下,自然资本依赖度对经济增长的“诅咒”效应消失,而其丰裕度对经济增长的“祝福”效应显著提升,城市化率和纬度分别从发展阶段和地理区位视角丰富并深化物质资本积累的调节机制。中国各地应立足自身资源禀赋与经济发展阶段,将自然资源租金用于国民财富再投资和资本组合优化,通过自然资源保护利用与投资补偿摆脱“资源诅咒”,走上经济发展与生态文明双赢的可持续发展之路。