The Analysis of Economic Growth Cycle in Henan Province

According to the data of practical GDP time sequences from 1978 to 2009 provided by Henan Statistical Yearbook of every year,Hodrick-Prescott filter model is established,and it is disintegrated into tendency component(potential yield)and fluctuation component(yield gap).The critical division loci of filter model are 4 wave crest years(1980,1988,1996 and 2007),and 3 trough years(1984,1992 and 2002).Thus since the opening up and reform,the economic growth fluctuation of Henan can be divided into 3 complete cycles and 2 incomplete cycles.Based on the economic situation and background within and without province,we preliminarily conclude the stage-characteristics of all growth cycles and the probable reasons of fluctuation.On the whole,the economic growth cycle of Henan takes on astringency to some extent,and sustainability and stability are reinforced,showing the characteristics of growth-type cycle increasingly.

China's economic growth and the inflation cycles since reform and opening to the outside world

This paper analyzes the cyclical characteristics of China’s economic growth and inflation since reform and opening-up, and explores the intrinsic link between the two.The study will be a guideline to keep a good balance between economic growth and inflation.

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND CYCLES IN MODERN CHINA

If the theory of cyclical fluctuation can be applied to modern China, the economic development ofChina in this period can be seen as consisting of several stages. At each stage as well as in the wholeperiod, chosen index system is likely to help measure the growth rate. By vertical and horizontal com-parison, this paper will try to settle the disputes on China’s modern economic development.

Nonlinear Differential Equation of Macroeconomic Dynamics for Long-Term Forecasting of Economic Development

In this article we derive a general differential equation that describes long-term economic growth in terms of cyclical and trend components. Equation is based on the model of non-linear accelerator of induced investment. A scheme is proposed for obtaining approximate solutions of nonlinear differential equation by splitting solution into the rapidly oscillating business cycles and slowly varying trend using Krylov-Bogoliubov-Mitropolsky averaging. Simplest modes of the economic system are described. Characteristics of the bifurcation point are found and bifurcation phenomenon is interpreted as loss of stability making the economic system available to structural change and accepting innovations. System being in a nonequilibrium state has a dynamics with self-sustained undamped oscillations. The model is verified with economic development of the US during the fifth Kondratieff cycle (1982-2010). Model adequately describes real process of economic growth in both quantitative and qualitative aspects. It is one of major results that the model gives a rough estimation of critical points of system stability loss and falling into a crisis recession. The model is used to forecast the macroeconomic dynamics of the US during the sixth Kondratieff cycle (2018-2050). For this forecast we use fixed production capital functional dependence on a long-term Kondratieff cycle and medium-term Juglar and Kuznets cycles. More accurate estimations of the time of crisis and recession are based on the model of accelerating log-periodic oscillations. The explosive growth of the prices of highly liquid commodities such as gold and oil is taken as real predictors of the global financial crisis. The second wave of crisis is expected to come in June 2011.

Information Models for Forecasting Nonlinear Economic Dynamics in the Digital Era

The aim of this study was to develop an adequate mathematical model for long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth in the digital age (2020-2050). In addition, the task was to develop a model for forecast calculations of labor productivity in the symbiosis of “man + intelligent machine”, where an intelligent machine (IM) is understood as a computer or robot equipped with elements of artificial intelligence (AI), as well as in the digital economy as a whole. In the course of the study, it was shown that in order to implement its goals the Schumpeter-Kondratiev innovation and cycle theory on forming long waves (LW) of economic development influenced by a powerful cluster of economic technologies engendered by industrial revolutions is most appropriate for a long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth. The Solow neoclassical model of economic growth, synchronized with LW, gives the opportunity to forecast economic dynamics of technologically advanced countries with a greater precision up to 30 years, the time which correlates with the continuation of LW. In the information and digital age, the key role among the main factors of growth (capital, labour and technological progress) is played by the latter. The authors have developed an information model which allows for forecasting technological progress basing on growth rates of endogenous technological information in economics. The main regimes of producing technological information, corresponding to the eras of information and digital economies, are given in the article, as well as the Lagrangians that engender them. The model is verified on the example of the 5th information LW for the US economy (1982-2018) and it has had highly accurate approximation for both technological progress and economic growth. A number of new results were obtained using the developed information models for forecasting technological progress. The forecasting trajectory of economic growth of developed countries (on the example of the USA) on the upward stage of the 6th LW (2018-2042), engendered by the digital technologies of the 4th Industrial Revolution is given. It is also demonstrated that the symbiosis of human and intelligent machine (IM) is the driving force in the digital economy, where man plays the leading role organizing effective and efficient mutual work. Authors suggest a mathematical model for calculating labour productivity in the digital economy, where the symbiosis of “human + IM” is widely used. The calculations carried out with the help of the model show: 1) the symbiosis of “human + IM” from the very beginning lets to realize the possibilities of increasing work performance in the economy with the help of digital technologies;2) the largest labour productivity is achieved in the symbiosis of “human + IM”, where man labour prevails, and the lowest labour productivity is seen where the largest part of the work is performed by IM;3) developed countries may achieve labour productivity of 3% per year by the mid-2020s, which has all the chances to stay up to the 2040s.

国有企业稳增长:跨周期调节机理与实施路径

稳增长是国有企业的核心功能之一。文章从跨周期调节视角论述了国有企业稳增长的内在机理、经验事实与实施路径,研究发现:国有企业稳增长要坚持发挥国家发展规划的战略导向作用,以做实做强做优实体经济为着力点,以促进经济增长方式转变、结构优化、动力转换为重点,坚持稳中求进方法论,促进高质量发展;国有企业在基础设施、科技创新、区域平衡发展、收入分配、社会责任等领域的跨周期调节表现较为突出;新发展阶段,国有企业稳增长的实施路径包括:拓展有效投资空间和领域、优化国有资本空间行业布局、发挥价格调节机制在降低宏观经济运行成本中的基础性作用、提供更多高质量的基本公共产品和服务。

百年变局与大国关系的中长期演变

在百年未有之大变局视角下,大国力量最本质和持久的因素仍然是经济力量。看待中美经济力量变化时,既要重视短期变化,但更要重视长期趋势。从短期来看,中国经济总量赶超美国经济总量的速度有所减缓,但仍存在超越美国的可能。从长期来看,基于PPP测算的经济力量对比,将康德拉季耶夫周期和权力转移理论相结合,有助于更好地理解国际冲突和地缘政治变化。由于收入水平较低的国家基于上述两种算法会有不同的经济地位,而这种差别是造成近年来俄罗斯和印度在国际舞台上冲突性行动加剧的重要原因。日本因为熟悉政府能力与经济增长的复杂关系,倾向于低估中国的长期经济增长前景,进而导致日本在战略上始终追随美国。不过,俄乌冲突使美国组建包括欧盟、日本和印度在内的大联盟的成效大打折扣。

农旅融合、要素流动与县域经济增长

农旅融合是践行“绿水青山就是金山银山”理念的良好载体和生动实践。在理论分析和模型推演的基础上,利用休闲农业与乡村旅游示范县政策设计准自然实验,并基于2008-2019年中国1778个县域的面板数据,采用多时点双重差分模型,考察农旅融合发展对县域经济增长的影响。结果表明,农旅融合发展对县域经济增长具有显著的推动作用。该结论在经过平行趋势检验、反事实检验等多重稳健性检验后依旧成立。机制分析表明,农旅融合发展主要是通过吸引资本流入、加快非农转移和推动技术进步来提高县域经济发展水平,进一步凸显出要素流动在县域经济增长过程中的传导作用。此外,从资源禀赋看,农旅融合经济增长效应的发挥,不仅依赖于县域内部旅游生态资源,对外部交通条件等基础设施也有较高要求。同时,东部地区县域的农旅融合发展能发挥出更明显的经济增长效应。可见,基于本地资源优势推进农旅融合发展,并进一步补齐县域交通等基础设施建设短板,是推动县域经济增长的重要选项。

日本经济低迷三十年:特征事实、政策应对与启示镜鉴

20世纪90年代以来,日本经济陷入长期低迷,具体表现为经济长期低速增长、持续通缩、消费持续疲软、私营部门投资长期不足和低利率成为常态。分要素来看,资本投入和劳动投入对日本经济增长的贡献均呈现下降趋势,全要素生产率逐渐成为日本经济增长的首要动力。日本潜在经济增速维持在0.5%—1%,增速缺口多数年份为负,且绝对值明显拉大。通过国际比较可发现,日本经济增速放缓属正常现象,但在面对“黑天鹅”事件和“灰犀牛”事件时表现得较为脆弱。从宏观经济的短期走势来看,日本经济周期波动呈现以下新趋势:一是经济周期平均时间拉长,特别是扩张期明显变长;二是经济周期波动变小,扩张期经济增长乏力。此外,日本和美国经济周期协同性较强。为应对经济长期低迷,日本先后以提高资源配置效率和解决经济社会中长期发展问题为出发点,对产业政策进行了两次调整,并通过财政重建路线和再通胀路线的交替,不断调整财政政策和货币政策。日本宏观经济政策对中国的启示在于,不断优化政府和市场的关系,充分重视健全宏观经济治理体系。

自然资本对中国经济增长的深层影响及机制

自然资本是经济增长的重要物质支撑,对可持续发展具有关键作用。该研究将多类经济增长理论的代理变量共同纳入扩展的MRW模型,利用BMA方法解决模型不确定性难题,明确区分可再生自然资本与不可再生自然资本,兼顾依赖度与丰裕度,基于省级面板数据考察自然资本对中国经济增长的直接与深层影响,并借助CART算法开展多重机制分析。研究发现:①兼顾表层理论与深层理论构建模型,自然资本对中国经济增长具有深层影响,且影响方向因代理指标而异,其依赖度“诅咒”效应明显但丰裕度“祝福”效应突出,该全景视角可以调和已有文献对“资源诅咒”存在性的严重分歧。②两类自然资本的增长效应迥然不同,可再生自然资本的影响符合“资源中性”假说,不可再生自然资本依赖度的“诅咒”效应和丰裕度的“祝福”效应都很强烈,其对经济增长的整体效应取决于资源利用模式。③高物质资本积累机制下,自然资本依赖度对经济增长的“诅咒”效应消失,而其丰裕度对经济增长的“祝福”效应显著提升,城市化率和纬度分别从发展阶段和地理区位视角丰富并深化物质资本积累的调节机制。中国各地应立足自身资源禀赋与经济发展阶段,将自然资源租金用于国民财富再投资和资本组合优化,通过自然资源保护利用与投资补偿摆脱“资源诅咒”,走上经济发展与生态文明双赢的可持续发展之路。

制氢与掺混一体化系统全生命周期碳足迹评价与技术经济性评估

通过构建制氢与掺混一体化系统仿真模型,建立多能流、物料流数据的全生命周期清单,定量评价其技术经济与降碳潜力。基于平准化掺氢天然气成本和净现值分析模型,探讨能量效率、电流密度等关键技术参数及风电价格、原材料价格等经济参数对经济评价指标的影响,并进行技术经济性评估;基于全生命周期碳足迹评价模型,分析系统的降碳潜力。研究表明:原材料价格和电价是影响平准化成本的主要因素,风电交易电价平均每下降0.10元/(kW·h),平准化成本可下降149元/t;年产1.57万t绿色氢气和50.28万t天然气掺混的新改扩建项目净碳排放量为27816 t,与所掺氢气等热值的天然气总CO_(2)排放量为1334175 t/a。故此项目在经济技术和环境友好方面是可行的。

基于特征构建的区域电力负荷增长归因及量化分析方法

电力负荷由于受到气温、经济、特殊事件等多种因素及多因素耦合影响,增长成因量化分析困难。同时,目前对于电力负荷研究多集中于预测方面,对负荷增长原因分析较少。通过研究电力负荷数据特征构建方法,提出一种电力负荷增长归因分析方法。首先,构建气象相关性指标、基于经济发展的自然负荷增长指标、基于电力电量修正的产业结构变化指标以及事件趋势一致性评价指标;在此基础上,分别提取气象负荷、自然经济负荷、业扩负荷、随机负荷,利用贡献率量化各因素对负荷增长的影响程度。最后,利用西北某2省的电力电量数据进行验证,结果显示所提方法能够很好地量化负荷增长的原因。

A Novel Methodological Approach to Estimate the Impact of Natural Hazard-Induced Disasters on Country/Region-Level Economic Growth

With the increased frequency of extreme weather events and large-scale disasters, extensive societal and economic losses incur every year due to damage of infrastructure and private properties, business disruptions,fatalities, homelessness, and severe health-related issues. In this article, we analyze the economic and disaster data from1970 through 2010 to investigate the impact of disasters on country/region-level economic growth. We leveraged a random parameter modeling approach to develop the growth-econometrics model that identifies risk factors significantly influencing the country/region-level economic growth in the face of natural hazard-induced disasters,while controlling for country/region-and time-specific unobserved heterogeneities. We found that disaster intensity in terms of fatalities and homelessness, and economic characteristics such as openness to trade and a government's consumption share of purchasing power parity(PPP), are the significant risk factors that randomly vary for different countries/regions. Other significant factors found to be significant include population, real gross domestic product(GDP), and investment share of PPP converted GDP per capita. We also found that flood is the most devastating disaster to affect country/region-level economic growth. This growth-econometrics model will help in the policy and decision making of governmentsrelated to the investment needs for pre-and post-disaster risk mitigation and response planning strategies, to better protect nations and minimize disaster-induced economic impacts.

Peculiarities of Innovative Development of Economy in Georgia

Under the global economy,classical economic doctrines cannot reflect every aspect of the country’s economic competitiveness as non-traditional factors of economic development play an equally important role in achieving the country’s economic goals.In the view of the mentioned,knowledge and innovation are essential factors of economic development at the present stage.Consequently,at the present stage,in the process of global competitiveness,the study of innovative economics as a factor of self-establishment is also relevant for the countries with limited natural resources.Thus,the urgency and necessity of researching the existing issue are conditioned by the complex study of the existing economic,political,and institutional factors.Despite theoretical estimates,in the Georgian economic literature today there is practically no comprehensive research and analysis on the opportunities for the development of innovative economics in the country,on the basis of which the formation of the innovative economics should be carried out in Georgia.The goals of the research are to study and analyze the potential and role of Georgia’s opportunities for the development of innovative economics and to determine its impact on the economic development of the country in the process of integration of the modern global economy.

双循环视角下收入不平等与经济增长关系的再检验

探讨“以国内大循环为主”情形下,收入差距、消费内需和经济增长的关系,匹配了一套高质量收入不平等国际数据,并使用经典模型验证了数据的可靠性,进而从理论层面分析“外循环”和“内循环”发展模式下“收入不平等—消费内需—经济增长”路径,在经典模型中引入内需变量,采用系统广义矩估计法(系统GMM)方法进行研究。发现以“外循环”主导的经济增长模式下,收入不平等加剧与内需占比下降同时发生会促进经济增长,以及以“内循环”主导的经济增长模式下,收入均等化与内需占比上升同时发生也会促进经济增长。立足新的发展阶段,应进一步深化收入分配改革,缩小收入差距,增强居民消费能力和消费意愿,最终实现经济增长向“以国内大循环为主”转变。

西部陆海新通道建设的经济增长效应及实现路径——基于合成控制法准自然实验的实证研究

文章选取2010年第1季度至2019年第4季度的省级平衡面板数据,利用合成控制法准自然实验检验新通道建设的区域经济增长效应及实现路径,结果发现:2017年8月合作推动新通道前身“南向通道”建设,显著促进了广西、贵州和甘肃的经济增长,但对贵州经济增长的影响相对更稳定、持续性更强;新通道建设影响经济增长的路径存在明显地区差异,除了通过推动固定资产投资增长的共同路径外,对于广西的影响还体现在促进规模以上工业企业资产增长,对于贵州的影响则包括推动规模以上工业企业经营效率提升,而对于甘肃,这两种路径的作用都不明显。根据上述检验结果,文章提出了充分释放新通道建设经济增长效应的建议。

员工离职行为对企业组织绩效的影响

员工离职行为影响企业组织绩效,对企业管理有影响。现有研究结果表明:员工离职行为对企业组织绩效有负面影响;有正面影响,未达成一致。本研究旨在通过实证分析探讨员工离职行为对企业组织绩效的影响。本研究采用固定效应的回归方法对中国A股上市公司2011—2020年的数据进行实证分析。研究结果表明,员工离职行为对企业组织绩效的影响呈负显著影响。其中,在员工离职行为对企业组织绩效影响中,国有企业和企业生命周期起负向显著调节作用。本研究丰富了员工离职行为对企业组织绩效影响的理论机制,对促进企业管理具有一定的参考价值。

区域分工、经济周期联动性与经济增长极建设--国内价值链分工的视角

新发展格局下,中国区域经济发展呈现出新特征,构建以内需为主导的分工体系和更为合理的区域分工模式具有重要战略意义。立足国内价值链,文章设计了“国内大循环”背景下中国区域分工角色的指标,并使用高阶空间滞后模型探析了各省经济周期联动性的区域特征,在此基础上,文章将研究视角拓展至经济增长极建设,设计了“双循环”格局下区域中心省份的指标。研究发现:2007—2015年南方东部沿海地区依然是保障我国经济增长的核心动力来源,中、西部地区在NVC中的参与度和贡献度稳步提升,北方东部沿海和东北地区在NVC中的经济构成比重有下降趋势,长江经济带在我国经济增长的支撑地位逐渐凸显。中国省际经济周期联动性具有典型的区域化特征,省际间的经贸互动显著加强了其区域化特征。最后基于“双循环”依存度指标对区域经贸中心省份的选择进行定量分析,为经济增长极建设的有序推进补充一定事实依据。该研究具有两方面政策含义:一是中国在打造全国统一大市场的过程中要更加注重区域分工对国内分工体系的资源配置和整合能力,充分释放区域(间)分工对内需体系构建的重要促进作用。二是中国在推进区域协调发展战略进程中,应当依托区域经济增长极等新型空间组织形式,通过展开精准帮扶或合作实现区域经济协同发展。

新基建如何影响我国城市经济增长质量?——基于“宽带中国”战略的准自然实验研究

本文结合“宽带中国”战略与2010-2019年城市经济数据,基于PSM-渐进DID模型与IV回归方法,首次从准自然实验视角实证探讨了以宽带网络为基础的新基建对城市经济增长质量的平均影响、中长期影响、异质性影响与内在机制。本文发现,新基建对城市经济增长质量具有显著的积极影响,该影响随着时间推移呈上升趋势。异质性分析发现,在固定资产投资增长率不同的城市和规模不同的城市之间,新基建的经济增长质量效应差异显著。内在机制方面,从经济增长动力、增长结构与增长成果三个视角,新基建能够通过发挥技术进步效应、产业结构升级效应、消费刺激效应提升城市经济增长质量。最后,本文提出了相关政策建议。