An Analysis of the Difference between the Multiple Linear Regression Approach and the Multimodel Ensemble Mean

An investigation of the difference in seasonal precipitation forecast skills between the multiple linear regression （MLR） ensemble and the simple multimodel ensemble mean （EM） was based on the forecast quality of individual models. The possible causes of difference in previous studies were analyzed. In order to make the simulation capability of studied regions relatively uniform, three regions with different temporal correlation coefficients were chosen for this study. Results show the causes resulting in the incapability of the MLR approach vary among different regions. In the Nifio3.4 region, strong co-linearity within individual models is generally the main reason. However, in the high latitude region, no significant co-linearity can be found in individual models, but the abilities of single models are so poor that it makes the MLR approach inappropriate for superensemble forecasts in this region. In addition, it is important to note that the use of various score measurements could result in some discrepancies when we compare the results derived from different multimodel ensemble approaches.

Effect of sub-cloud evaporation on the δ^18O of precipitation in Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor, China

The sub-cloud evaporation effect refers to the evaporation process for raindrops that fall from the cloud base to the ground, which is usually accompanied by depleted light isotopes and enriched heavy isotopes in the precipitation. Based on 461 event-based precipitation samples collected from 12 weather stations in the Qilian Mountains and the Hexi Corridor from May to August of 2013, our results indicated that sub-cloud evaporation has a great influence on the δ^18O of precipitation, especially in small-amount precipitation events. In May, June, July, and August the δ18O composition was enriched by 35%, 26%, 39%, and 41%, respectively, from the cloud base to the ground. This influence clearly strengthened with temperature rise, from the Qilian Mountains to the Hexi Corridor. When falling raindrops are evaporated by 1.0% in the Qilian Mountains and the Hexi Corridor, the composition of δ18O would be enriched by 1.2% and 2.6%, respectively. Temperature dominated the sub-cloud evaporation in the Qilian Mountains, whereas relative humidity controlled it in the Hexi Corridor. These results provide new proofs of the evolutional process of stable isotopes in precipitation in arid regions.

THE VARIATION OF EVAPORATION OVER SOUTH CHINA AND ITS RELATIONSHIPS TO PRECIPITATION

The evaporation rate over South China is estimated based on the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation(CMAP)data and the NCEP/DOE reanalysis II data from 1979 to 2007. The temporal variation of evaporation over South China and its relationship to precipitation are discussed. Climatologically,the evaporation rate over South China is the largest in July and smallest in March.In spring and summer,the evaporation rate is approximately one half of the precipitation rate.However,the evaporation rate is approximately equal to the precipitation rate in fall and winter.The year-to-year variation of the evaporation rate over South China is quite in phase with that of the precipitation rate in the period from February to May but out of phase with that of the precipitation rate in early winter.Over South China there is a pronounced decreasing trend in the evaporation in colder seasons and a positive correlation between the evaporation variation and the rainfall variation in spring.In summer,the abnormality of rainfall over South China is closely related to the anomalous evaporation over the northeastern part of the South China Sea and its eastern vicinity.In winter,the rainfall variation in South China has a close linkage with the evaporation variation in a belt area covering the eastern Arabian Sea,the Bay of Bengal,the southeastern periphery of the Plateau,the southern part of South China Sea and the central part of Indonesia.

Seasonal dynamics of soil water content in the typical vegetation and its response to precipitation in a semi-arid area of Chinese Loess Plateau

Soil water content is a key limiting factor for vegetation growth in the semi-arid area of Chinese Loess Plateau and precipitation is the main source of soil water content in this area.To further understand the impact of vegetation types and environmental factors such as precipitation on soil water content,we continuously monitored the seasonal dynamics in soil water content in four plots(natural grassland,Caragana korshinskii,Armeniaca sibirica and Pinus tabulaeformis)in Chinese Loess Plateau.The results show that the amplitude of soil water content fluctuation decreases with an increase in soil depth,showing obvious seasonal variations.Soil water content of artificial vegetation was found to be significantly lower than that of natural grassland,and most precipitation events have difficulty replenishing soil water content below a depth of 40 cm.Spring and autumn are the key seasons for replenishment of soil water by precipitation.Changes in soil water content are affected by precipitation,vegetation types,soil evaporation and other factors.The interception effect of vegetation on precipitation and the demand for water consumption by transpiration are the key factors affecting the efficiency of soil water replenishment by precipitation in this area.Due to artificial vegetation plantation in this area,soil will face a water deficit crisis in the future.

Spatiotemporal Distribution of Precipitation Recycling across the Arid Regions of Asia and Africa

The degree of water vapour recycling in terrestrial precipitation is still a debatable topic, particularly in arid regions. Here, the spatiotemporal evolution of evaporation, calculated via the water balance method [1], and the precipitation recycling ratio, calculated using a water recycling model [2], are investigated across Asia and Africa for the 1984-2013 time period. The results show that the precipitation recycling ratio in North Africa and China-Mongolia is stronger in summer but weaker in winter. However, it is stronger in winter and spring in West Asia but weaker in summer. Evaporation accounts for a small proportion of the precipitation uptake in arid regions, with external water vapour transportation exerting the primary influence on precipitation recycling. Increasing global temperatures and evaporation potentials over the past 30 years have driven the actual evaporation and precipitation recycling ratio increases in North Africa and West Asia and corresponding decreases in China-Mongolia.

Observed Relationship between Surface Freshwater Flux and Salinity in The North Indian Ocean

Using 10-year (2001 10) monthly evaporation, precipitation, and sea surface salinity (SSS) datasets, the relationship between local freshwater flux and SSS in the north Indian Ocean (NIO) is evaluated quantitatively. The results suggest a highly positive linear correlation between freshwater flux and SSS in the Arabian Sea (correlation coefficient, R=0.74) and the western equatorial Indian Ocean (R=0.73), whereas the linear relationships are relatively weaker in the Bay of Bengal (R=0.50) and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (R=0.40). Additionally, the interannual variations of freshwater flux and SSS and their mutual relationship are investigated in four sub- regions for pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon seasons separately. The satellite retrievals of SSS from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Aquarius missions can provide continuous and consistent SSS fields for a better understanding of its variability and the differences between the freshwater flux and SSS signals, which are commonly thought to be linearly related.

Projections of the impacts of climate change on the water deficit and on the precipitation erosive indexes in Mantaro River Basin, Peru

Projections of climate change are essential to guide sustainable development plans in the tropical Andean countries such as Peru. This study assessed the projections of precipitation and potential evaporation, rain erosive potential, and precipitation concentration in the Mantaro River Basin, in the Peruvian Andes, which is important for agriculture and energy production in Peru. We assumed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） AIB greenhouse gas emission scenario and simulated the global climate change by the HadCM3 global climate model. Due to the steepness of the mountain slopes and the narrowness of the river valley, this study uses the downscaling of the global model simulations by the regional Eta model down to 2o-km resolution. The downscaling projections show decrease in the monthly precipitation with respect to the baseline period, especially during the rainy season, between February and April, until the end of the 21st century. Meanwhile, a progressive increase in the monthly evaporation from the baseline period is projected. The Modified Fournier Index （MFI） shows a statistically significant downward trend in the Mantaro River Basin, whieh suggests a possible reduction in the rain erosive potential. The Precipitation Concentration Index （PCI） shows a statistically significant increasing trend, which indicates increasingly more irregular temporal distribution of precipitation towards the end of the century. The results of this study allow us to conclude that there should be a gradual increase in water deficit and precipitation concentration. Both changes can be negative for agriculture, power generation, and water supply in the Mantaro River Basin in Peru.

Drought trend analysis in a semi-arid area of Iraq based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Normalized Difference Water Index and Standardized Precipitation Index

Drought was a severe recurring phenomenon in Iraq over the past two decades due to climate change despite the fact that Iraq has been one of the most water-rich countries in the Middle East in the past.The Iraqi Kurdistan Region(IKR)is located in the north of Iraq,which has also suffered from extreme drought.In this study,the drought severity status in Sulaimaniyah Province,one of four provinces of the IKR,was investigated for the years from 1998 to 2017.Thus,Landsat time series dataset,including 40 images,were downloaded and used in this study.The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)and the Normalized Difference Water Index(NDWI)were utilized as spectral-based drought indices and the Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI)was employed as a meteorological-based drought index,to assess the drought severity and analyse the changes of vegetative cover and water bodies.The study area experienced precipitation deficiency and severe drought in 1999,2000,2008,2009,and 2012.Study findings also revealed a drop in the vegetative cover by 33.3%in the year 2000.Furthermore,the most significant shrinkage in water bodies was observed in the Lake Darbandikhan(LDK),which lost 40.5%of its total surface area in 2009.The statistical analyses revealed that precipitation was significantly positively correlated with the SPI and the surface area of the LDK(correlation coefficients of 0.92 and 0.72,respectively).The relationship between SPI and NDVI-based vegetation cover was positive but not significant.Low precipitation did not always correspond to vegetative drought;the delay of the effect of precipitation on NDVI was one year.

Spatial Pattern Difference of Contribution between Short and Long-duration Heavy Rainfall to Total Heavy Rainfall in China from 1961 to 2015

Many regions are pounded with heavy rainfall, causing flood, casualties, property damage and severe destruction to ecosystem in multiple urban areas. Frequent occurrence of extremely heavy precipitation event under the background of global climate change has caused terrible harm on economic and social development, life security, ecosystem, etc.;brought profound impact on sustainable development of disaster area;become a key factor of global and regional disasters and environmental risk;and been widely concerned by academic circle and all sectors of the society. So severe disasters caused by extreme precipitation events have attracted more and more attention, while the relationship between heavy rainfall with different duration and total heavy rainfall has become the hottest scientific frontier issue. Contribution of heavy rainfall with different duration to the total heavy rainfall has significant spatial differences. Here we used daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2015 of 659 meteorological stations in China. When the rainfall is greater than 50 mm in 24 hours, that is a heavy rainfall event. Heavy rainfall only lasting one day is defined as short- duration heavy rainfall, while heavy rainfall lasting more than two days is defined as long-duration heavy rainfall. Results indicated that: on the basis of duration days defined long-duration heavy rainfall, on the spatial distribution, total rainfall, total heavy rainfall and short-duration heavy rainfall showed "increasing-decreasing-increasing" from the southeast coast to northwest inland in China from 1961 to 2015, and on the whole meteorological station with increasing trend predominant. In the meantime, long-duration heavy rainfall showed "increasing-decreasing" spatial pattern, and on the whole meteorological station with decreasing trend predominant. We detected that there was a belt of becoming drought from northeast to southwest. The contribution of total heavy rainfall to total rainfall as well as long-duration heavy rainfall to total heavy rainfall showed "high in southeast-low in northwest" spatial distribution pattern. On the contrary, the contribution of short-duration heavy rainfall to total heavy rainfall showed "low in southeast-high in northwest" spatial distribution pattern. The contribution trend of total heavy rainfall to total rainfall and short-duration heavy rainfall to total heavy rainfall showed "increasing-mosaic with increasing and decreasing-increasing" spatial distribution pattern from northeast to southwest, and on the whole meteorological station with increasing trend predominant. On the contrary, the contribution trend of long-duration heavy rainfall to total heavy rainfall showed mosaic with increasing and increasing in the northeast, slightly decreasing in the southwest, and on the whole meteorological station with decreasing trend predominant. There was a climate transition zone from northeast to southwest, which was essentially coincident with the arid zone. The results suggested that the precipitation in China was changing to extremely accompanied by short-duration storm increased significantly. Chinese heavy rainfall especially the increase of short-duration heavy rainfall suggests that human activity is likely to be triggered an increasing in extreme precipitation.

Comparisons of Several Evaporation/Precipitation Datasets for the Bohai Sea Based on Salinity Simulation

Evaporation （E） rate and precipitation （P） rate are two significant meteorological elements required in the ocean baro- clinic modeling as external forcings. However, there are some uncertainties in the currently used E/P rates datasets, especially in terms of the data quality. In this study, we collected E/P rates data from ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, HOAPS for the Bohai Sea and nine routine stations around Laizhou Bay, and made comparisons among them. It was found that the differences in E/P rates between land and sea are remarkable, which was due to the difference in underlying surfaces. Therefore, the traditional way of using E/P rates acquired on land directly at sea is not correct. Since no final conclusion has been reached concerning the net water transport between the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea, it is unfeasible to judge the adequacy of the four kinds of data by using the water budget equation. However, the E/P rates at ERA-40 sea points were considered to he the optimal in terms of temporal/spatial coverage and resolution for the hindcast of salinity variation in the Bohai Sea. Besides, using the 3-D hydrodynamic model HAMSOM （HAMburg Shelf Ocean Model）, we performed numerical experiments with different E/P datasets and found that the E/P rates at sea points from ERA-40 dataset are better than those from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis dataset. If NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis E/P rates are to be used, they need to be adjusted and tested prior to simulation so that more close-to-reality salinity values can be reproduced.

Moisture Sources and Their Contributions to Summer Precipitation in the East of Southwest China

Complex topography,special geographical location and sea-land-air interactions lead to high interannual variability of summer precipitation in the east of Southwest China(ESWC).However,the contributions,influencing factors and mechanisms of remote and local evaporation remain to be further investigated.Using clustering analysis and Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory version 5 model,we analyze the contributions of remote moisture transport and local evaporation to summer precipitation in the ESWC and their causes.There are mainly five remote moisture channels in the ESWC,namely the Arabian Sea channel,Bay of Bengal channel,western Pacific channel,Northwest channel 1 and Northwest channel 2.Among the five channels,the western Pacific channel has the largest number of trajectories,while the Bay of Bengal channel has the largest contribution rate of specific humidity(33.33%)and moisture flux(33.14%).The amount of regional average precipitation is close to that of the precipitation caused by remote moisture transport,and both are considerably greater than the rainfall amount caused by local evaporation.However,on interannual time scales,precipitation recirculation rates are negatively correlated to regional average precipitation and precipitation caused by remote moisture transport but are consistent with that caused by local evaporation.An apparent"+-+"wave train can be found on the height anomaly field in East Asia,and the sea surface temperature anomalies are positive in the equatorial Middle-East Pacific,the South China Sea,the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.These phenomena cause southwest-northeast moisture transport with strong updrafts,thereby resulting in more precipitation in the ESWC.

Estimation of net primary productivity and its driving factors in the Ili River Valley,China

Net primary productivity（NPP）, as an important variable and ecological indicator in grassland ecosystems, can reflect environmental change and the carbon budget level. The Ili River Valley is a wetland nestled in the hinterland of the Eurasian continent, which responds sensitively to the global climate change. Understanding carbon budget and their responses to climate change in the ecosystem of Ili River Valley has a significant effect on the adaptability of future climate change and sustainable development. In this study, we calculated the NPP and analyzed its spatio-temporal pattern of the Ili River Valley during the period 2000–2014 using the normalized difference vegetation index（NDVI） and an improved Carnegie-Ames-Stanford（CASA） model. Results indicate that validation showed a good performance of CASA over the study region, with an overall coefficient of determination（R2） of 0.65 and root mean square error（RMSE） of 20.86 g C/（m^2·a）. Temporally, annual NPP of the Ili River Valley was 599.19 g C/（m^2·a） and showed a decreasing trend from 2000 to 2014, with an annual decrease rate of –3.51 g C/（m^2·a）. However, the spatial variation was not consistent, in which 55.69% of the areas showed a decreasing tendency, 12.60% of the areas remained relatively stable and 31.71% appeared an increasing tendency. In addition, the decreasing trends in NPP were not continuous throughout the 15-year period, which was likely being caused by a shift in climate conditions. Precipitation was found to be the dominant climatic factor that controlled the inter-annual variability in NPP. Furthermore, the correlations between NPP and climate factors differed along the vertical zonal. In the medium-high altitudes of the Ili River Valley, the NPP was positively correlated to precipitation and negatively correlated to temperature and net radiation. In the low-altitude valley and high-altitude mountain areas, the NPP showed a negative correlation with precipitation and a weakly positive correlation with temperature and net radiation. The results suggested that the vegetation of the Ili River Valley degraded in recent years, and there was a more complex mechanism of local hydrothermal redistribution that controlled the growth of vegetation in this valley ecosystem.

Eddy covariance measurements of water vapor and energy flux over a lake in the Badain Jaran Desert,China

Exploring the surface energy exchange between atmosphere and water bodies is essential to gain a quantitative understanding of regional climate change, especially for the lakes in the desert. In this study, measurements of energy flux and water vapor were performed over a lake in the Badain Jaran Desert, China from March 2012 to March 2013. The studied lake had about a 2-month frozen period （December and January） and a 10-month open-water period （February-November）. Latent heat flux （LE） and sensible heat flux （Hs） acquired using the eddy covariance technique were argued by measurements of long＇wave and shortwave radiation. Both fluxes of longwave and shortwave radiation showed seasonal dynamics and daily fluctuations during the study period. The reflected solar radiation was much higher in winter than in other seasons. LE exhibited diurnal and seasonal variations. On a daily scale, LE was low in the morning and peaked in the afternoon. From spring （April） to winter （January）, the diurnal amplitude of LE decreased slowly. LE was the dominant heat flux throughout the year and consumed most of the energy from the lake. Generally speaking, LE was mostly affected by changes in the ambient wind speed, while Hs was primarily affected by the product of water-air temperature difference and wind speed. The diurnal LE and Hs were negatively correlated in the open-water period. The variations in Hs and LE over the lake were differed from those on the nearby land surface. The mean evaporation rate on the lake was about 4.0 mm/d over the entire year, and the cumulative annual evaporation rate was 1445 mm/a. The cumulative annual evaporation was 10 times larger than the cumulative annual precipitation. Furthermore, the average evaporation rates over the frozen period and open-water period were approximately 0.6 and 5.0 mm/d, respectively. These results can be used to analyze the water balance and quantify the source of lake water in the Badain Jaran Desert.

Surface energy and water vapor fluxes observed on a megadune in the Badain Jaran Desert, China

The Badain Jaran Desert is the second-largest area of shifting sands in China. Our first measurements of the energy components and water vapor fluxes on a megadune using eddy covariance technology were taken from April 2012 to April 2013. The results indicate that the Iongwave and shortwave radiative fluxes exhibited large fluctuations and seasonal dynamics. The total radiative energy loss by Iongwave and shortwave radiation was greater on the megadune than from other underlying surfaces. The radiation partitioning was different in different seasons. The land-atmosphere interaction was primarily represented by the sensible heat flux. The average sensi- ble heat flux （40.1 W/m2） was much larger than the average latent heat flux （14.5 W/m2）. Soil heat flux played an important role in the energy balance. The mean actual evaporation was 0.41 mm/d, and the cumulative actual evaporation was approximately 150 mm/a. The water vapor would transport downwardly and appear as dew con- densation water. The amount of precipitation determined the actual evaporation. The actual evaporation was sup- posed to be equal to the precipitation on the megadune and the precipitation was difficult to recharge the ground- water. Our study can provide a foundation for further research on land-atmosphere interactions in this area.

Causes and Predictability of the 2021 Spring Southwestern China Severe Drought

In the spring of 2021,southwestern China(SWC)experienced extreme drought,accompanied by the highest seasonal-mean temperature record since 1961.This drought event occurred in the decaying phase of a La Niña event with negative geopotential height anomalies over the Philippine Sea,which is distinct from the historical perspective.Historically,spring drought over SWC is often linked to El Niño and strong western North Pacific subtropical high.Here,we show that the extreme drought in the spring of 2021 may be mainly driven by the atmospheric internal variability and amplified by the warming trend.Specifically,the evaporation increase due to the high temperature accounts for about 30%of drought severity,with the contributions of its linear trend portion being nearly 20%and the interannual variability portion being about 10%.Since the sea surface temperature forcing from the tropical central and eastern Pacific played a minor role in the occurrence of drought,it is a challenge for a climate model to capture the 2021 SWC drought beyond one-month lead times.

Responses of terrestrial water cycle components to afforestation within and around the Yellow River basin

Reforestation has attracted worldwide attention because of its multiple environmental benefits,but its impact on water resources is complicated and still controversial. In this study, the authors conducted numerical experiments within and around the Yellow River basin under the Grain-forGreen project using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The results showed that the terrestrial water cycle process was sensitive to land use/cover change in the study region. Under the increase of mixed forests within and below the basin, the basin-averaged precipitation and evaporation increased by 223.17 and 223.88 mm respectively, but the surface runoff decreased by 2.22 mm from 2006 to 2010. In other words, the forest-induced increase in evaporation exceeded that of precipitation along with decreased surface runoff. Importantly, the afforestation effects on water resources seemed to enhance with time, and the effects of the same vegetation change were different in dry and wet years with different precipitation amounts(i.e. different atmospheric circulation background). It should be noted that it is difficult to obtain one product that can explicitly reflect the spatial distribution of actual land cover change promoted by the Grain-for-Green project in the Yellow River basin, which is an important obstacle to clearly identify the reforestation impacts. A land cover dataset derived from advantages of multiple sets of data therefore needs to be proposed.

Simulation and projection of climate change using CMIP6 Muti-models in the Belt and Road Region

Climate condition over a region is mostly determined by the changes in precipitation,temperature and evaporation as the key climate variables.The countries belong to the Belt and Road region are subjected to face strong changes in future climate.In this paper,we used five global climate models from the latest Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6)to evaluate future climate changes under seven combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways(SSP1-1.9,SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,SSP4-3.4,SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5)across the Belt and Road region.This study focuses on undertaking a climate change assessment in terms of future changes in precipitation,air temperature and actual evaporation for the three distinct periods as near-term period(2021−2040),mid-term period(2041−2060)and long-term period(2081−2100).To discern spatial structure,Köppen−Geiger Climate Classification method has been used in this study.In relative terms,the results indicate an evidence of increasing tendency in all the studied variables,where significant changes are anticipated mostly in the long-term period.In addition to,though it is projected to increase under all the SSP-RCP scenarios,greater increases will be happened under higher emission scenarios(SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0).For temperature,robust increases in annual mean temperature is found to be 5.2°C under SSP3-7.0,and highest 7.0°C under SSP5-8.5 scenario relative to present day.The northern part especially Cold and Polar region will be even more warmer(+6.1°C)in the long-term(2081−2100)period under SSP5-8.5.Similarly,at the end of the twenty-first century,annual mean precipitation is inclined to increase largely with a rate of 2.1%and 2.8%per decade under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 respectively.Spatial distribution demonstrates that the largest precipitation increases are to be pronounced in the Polar and Arid regions.Precipitation is projected to increase with response to increasing warming most of the regions.Finally,the actual evaporation is projected to increase significantly with rate of 20.3%under SSP3-7.0 and greatest 27.0%for SSP5-8.5 by the end of the century.It is important to note that the changes in evaporation respond to global mean temperature rise consistently in terms of similar spatial pattern for all the scenarios where stronger increase found in the Cold and Polar regions.The increase in precipitation is overruled by enhanced evaporation over the region.However,this study reveals that the CMIP6 models can simulate temperature better than precipitation over the Belt and Road region.Findings of this study could be the reliable basis for initiating policies against further climate induced impacts in the regional scale.

Simulation and analysis on seasonal variability of average salinity in the Yellow Sea

The CTD (conductivity, temperature and depth) data collected by six China-Korea joint cruises during 1996-1998 and the climatological data suggest that the seasonal variability of average salinity in the Yellow Sea (Sa) presents a general sinusoid pattern. To study the mechanism of the variability, annual cycles of Sa were simulated and a theoretical analysis based on the governing equations was reported.Three main factors are responsible for the variability: the Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC), the Changji-ang (Yangtze) River diluted water (YRDW) and the evaporation minus precipitation (E-P). From December to the next May, the variability of Sa is mainly controlled by the salt transportation of the YSWC. But in early July, the YSWC is overtaken and replaced by the YRDW which then becomes the most important controller in summer. From late September to November, the E-P gradually took the lead. The mass exchange north of the 37癗 line is not significant.

TREND OF PRECIPITATION VARIATION IN HUBEI PROVINCE SINCE THE 1960S

Through linear regression analysis to the trend of annual,seasonal and monthly precipitation of 72 meteorological stations in Hubei Province from 1961 to 1995,it is revealed that: 1) annual precipitation was increasing by 61.0mm/10a in the eastern part of Hubei (112°E as a dividing line) and decreasing by 34.9mm/10a in the western part; 2) precipitation in winter and summer (January,February,March,June and July) was increasing in almost whole province which usually with non-uniformity of precipitation distribution from the south to the north. The precipitation in spring,autumn and winter (April,September,November and December) was decreasing in most of the areas which usually with non-uniformity of precipitation distribution from the east to the west. March and December were transition periods between two spatial distribution patterns mentioned above; 3) the eastern part of Hubei has beome one of precipitation increasing centers in China. The results was consistent with the trend that more frequent flood and drought events happened in Hubei Province which are more different in spatial and temporal scales.

Runoff characteristics and its sensitivity to climate factors in the Weihe River Basin from 2006 to 2018

Exploring the current runoff characteristics after the large-scale implementation of the Grain for Green(GFG)project and investigating its sensitivities to potential drivers are crucial for water resource prediction and management.Based on the measured runoff data of 62 hydrological stations in the Weihe River Basin(WRB)from 2006 to 2018,we analyzed the temporal and spatial runoff characteristics in this study.Correlation analysis was used to investigate the relationships between different runoff indicators and climate-related factors.Additionally,an improved Budyko framework was applied to assess the sensitivities of annual runoff to precipitation,potential evaporation,and other factors.The results showed that the daily runoff flow duration curves(FDCs)of all selected hydrological stations fall in three narrow ranges,with the corresponding mean annual runoff spanning approximately 1.50 orders of magnitude,indicating that the runoff of different hydrological stations in the WRB varied greatly.The trend analysis of runoff under different exceedance frequencies showed that the runoff from the south bank of the Weihe River was more affluent and stable than that from the north bank.The runoff was unevenly distributed throughout the year,mainly in the flood season,accounting for more than 50.00%of the annual runoff.However,the trend of annual runoff change was not obvious in most areas.Correlation analysis showed that rare-frequency runoff events were more susceptible to climate factors.In this study,daily runoff under 10%-20%exceeding frequencies,consecutive maximum daily runoff,and low-runoff variability rate had strong correlations with precipitation,aridity index,and average runoff depth on rainy days.In comparison,daily runoff under 50%-99%exceeding frequencies,consecutive minimum daily runoff,and high-runoff variability rate had weak correlations with all selected impact factors.The sensitivity analysis results suggested that the sensitivity of annual runoff to precipitation was always higher than that to potential evaporation.The runoff about 87.10%of the selected hydrological stations were most sensitive to precipitation changes,and 12.90%were most sensitive to other factors.The spatial pattern of the sensitivity analysis indicated that in relatively humid southern areas,runoff was more sensitive to potential evaporation and other factors,and less sensitive to precipitation.