Accumulation contribution differences between lacustrine organic-rich shales and mudstones and their significance in shale oil evaluation

The differences in organic matter abundance and rock composition between shale and mudstone determine the discrepancy of their contributions to the formation of conventional and shale oil/gas reservoirs.The evaluation criteria of source rocks are different in the future exploration in self-sourced petroleum systems.Shales are deposited in deep/semi-deep lacustrine,with low sedimentation rate and chemical depositions of various degrees,while mudstones are mostly formed in shallow lacustrine/lakeside,with high deposition rate and density flow characteristics.Three factors contribute to the enrichment of organic matter in shales,including the"fertility effect"caused by volcanic ash deposition and hydrothermal injection,excessive and over-speed growth of organisms promoted by radioactive materials,and deep-water anaerobic environment and low sedimentation rate to protect the accumulation of organic matter from dilution.Lamellations in shales are easy to be stripped into storage space,and acid water produced during hydrocarbon generation can dissolve some particles to generate new pores.The massive mudstones with high clay content are of poor matrix porosity.Shales with high total organic carbon,developed laminations,relatively good reservoir property,and high brittle mineral content,are the most favorable lithofacies for shale oil exploration and development.It is necessary to conduct investigation on the differences between shale and mudstone reservoirs,to identify resources distribution in shale and mudstone formations,determine the type and standard of"sweet-spot"evaluation parameters,optimize"sweet-spot areas/sections",and adopt effective development technologies,which is of great significance to objectively evaluate the total amount and economy of shale oil resources,as well as the scale of effective exploitation.

Spatial Pattern Difference of Contribution between Short and Long-duration Heavy Rainfall to Total Heavy Rainfall in China from 1961 to 2015

Many regions are pounded with heavy rainfall, causing flood, casualties, property damage and severe destruction to ecosystem in multiple urban areas. Frequent occurrence of extremely heavy precipitation event under the background of global climate change has caused terrible harm on economic and social development, life security, ecosystem, etc.;brought profound impact on sustainable development of disaster area;become a key factor of global and regional disasters and environmental risk;and been widely concerned by academic circle and all sectors of the society. So severe disasters caused by extreme precipitation events have attracted more and more attention, while the relationship between heavy rainfall with different duration and total heavy rainfall has become the hottest scientific frontier issue. Contribution of heavy rainfall with different duration to the total heavy rainfall has significant spatial differences. Here we used daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2015 of 659 meteorological stations in China. When the rainfall is greater than 50 mm in 24 hours, that is a heavy rainfall event. Heavy rainfall only lasting one day is defined as short- duration heavy rainfall, while heavy rainfall lasting more than two days is defined as long-duration heavy rainfall. Results indicated that: on the basis of duration days defined long-duration heavy rainfall, on the spatial distribution, total rainfall, total heavy rainfall and short-duration heavy rainfall showed "increasing-decreasing-increasing" from the southeast coast to northwest inland in China from 1961 to 2015, and on the whole meteorological station with increasing trend predominant. In the meantime, long-duration heavy rainfall showed "increasing-decreasing" spatial pattern, and on the whole meteorological station with decreasing trend predominant. We detected that there was a belt of becoming drought from northeast to southwest. The contribution of total heavy rainfall to total rainfall as well as long-duration heavy rainfall to total heavy rainfall showed "high in southeast-low in northwest" spatial distribution pattern. On the contrary, the contribution of short-duration heavy rainfall to total heavy rainfall showed "low in southeast-high in northwest" spatial distribution pattern. The contribution trend of total heavy rainfall to total rainfall and short-duration heavy rainfall to total heavy rainfall showed "increasing-mosaic with increasing and decreasing-increasing" spatial distribution pattern from northeast to southwest, and on the whole meteorological station with increasing trend predominant. On the contrary, the contribution trend of long-duration heavy rainfall to total heavy rainfall showed mosaic with increasing and increasing in the northeast, slightly decreasing in the southwest, and on the whole meteorological station with decreasing trend predominant. There was a climate transition zone from northeast to southwest, which was essentially coincident with the arid zone. The results suggested that the precipitation in China was changing to extremely accompanied by short-duration storm increased significantly. Chinese heavy rainfall especially the increase of short-duration heavy rainfall suggests that human activity is likely to be triggered an increasing in extreme precipitation.

Impact of climate and human activity on NDVI of various vegetation types in the Three-River Source Region, China

The Three-River Source Region(TRSR)in China holds a vital position and exhibits an irreplaceable strategic importance in ecological preservation at the national level.On the basis of an in-depth study of the vegetation evolution in the TRSR from 2000 to 2022,we conducted a detailed analysis of the feedback mechanism of vegetation growth to climate change and human activity for different vegetation types.During the growing season,the spatiotemporal variations of normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)for different vegetation types in the TRSR were analyzed using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)-NDVI data and meteorological data from 2000 to 2022.In addition,the response characteristics of vegetation to temperature,precipitation,and human activity were assessed using trend analysis,partial correlation analysis,and residual analysis.Results indicated that,after in-depth research,from 2000 to 2022,the TRSR's average NDVI during the growing season was 0.3482.The preliminary ranking of the average NDVI for different vegetation types was as follows:shrubland(0.5762)>forest(0.5443)>meadow(0.4219)>highland vegetation(0.2223)>steppe(0.2159).The NDVI during the growing season exhibited a fluctuating growth trend,with an average growth rate of 0.0018/10a(P<0.01).Notably,forests displayed a significant development trend throughout the growing season,possessing the fastest rate of change in NDVI(0.0028/10a).Moreover,the upward trends in NDVI for forests and steppes exhibited extensive spatial distributions,with significant increases accounting for 95.23%and 93.80%,respectively.The sensitivity to precipitation was significantly enhanced in other vegetation types other than highland vegetation.By contrast,steppes,meadows,and highland vegetation demonstrated relatively high vulnerability to temperature fluctuations.A further detailed analysis revealed that climate change had a significant positive impact on the TRSR from 2000 to 2022,particularly in its northwestern areas,accounting for 85.05%of the total area.Meanwhile,human activity played a notable positive role in the southwestern and southeastern areas of the TRSR,covering 62.65%of the total area.Therefore,climate change had a significantly higher impact on NDVI during the growing season in the TRSR than human activity.

Study on the difference of payment time of medical insurance in China

Since medical insurance of our country developed, it is continued to deepen reform and became the basic form of the pcrfcct medical insurance system. However, regional differences still exist. The current medical insurance system of China＇s urban and rural structure background of two structures of serious, city residents, workers and rural residents is significantly difference in the payment period ,for this question ,the difference between our country will solve the basic medical insurance payment period, the relative level of regulating wages and medical people in our country and develop the medical insurance level, narrow the regional differences, reduce cost problem caused by population flow management, the basic medical insurance system for suggestions to improve the unified and promoting the social and economic level, people＇s medical security level, perfect improvement of physical insurance system of medical insurance according to the long-term sustainable development has a far-reaching significance.

Analysis of Employers＇ Dishonest Behavior in Social Security Contributions： Based on the Perspective of Game Theory

China＇s Social Security （SS） has got a series of remarkable achievements, however it has also revealed problems and obstacles. Social insurance contribution relates to the source of social security fund, which closely involves with the interests of thousands of participants. But now some employers in China, still intentionally or accidentally escape or slack off their own social insurance obligation, with the method of deliberately reducing Social Security contribution base, to reach the goal of paying inadequate social sccurity fees to meet its own maximum benefits. This paper bases on the previous literature in the field of problems in SS contributions, supported by theoretical knowledge of Game theory to analyze the potential strategies every player would adopt in their pursuit of maximum self-interest, then finds out the influencing factors of SS enterprise behavior in dodging SS fees, according to the results of game equilibrium, detailed solutions would be given to solve the problem of enterprise not fully contributing social security fees.

县域医共体医保总额付费效果研究

目的:评价县域医共体实施医保总额付费的政策效果,为推动医疗保险与县域医共体的联动改革提供参考。方法:运用双重差分法,从医疗费用、分级诊疗、医疗质量、医保支出、个人负担五个层面评价县域医共体医保总额付费的效果。结果:与非试点地区相比,试点地区医共体的次均门诊费用和医疗费用自付比例分别降低了15.141元和8.819个百分点,门诊医保基金支出比例和下转转诊率分别提高了12.419个百分点和1.539个百分点。结论:县域医共体开展医保总额付费能够提升患者控费意识,减轻患者疾病经济负担,促进医保基金有效使用,推动分级诊疗制度发展;但也存在改革进展滞后于医共体发展的困境,需因地制宜,完善县域医共体医保支付方式,建立与其适应的配套政策。

DRG支付对住院患者医疗费用负担的影响研究

目的:分析DRG支付对住院患者医疗费用负担的影响,助力我国医保支付方式的深化改革。方法:以2020—2022年江苏省常州市30家医院的医保住院患者为样本,采用双重差分模型,实证分析DRG支付前后住院患者医疗费用负担的差异。结果:实行DRG支付后,试点医院住院患者的医疗费用总额和个人账户自付金额分别下降了12.1%和11.2%;耗材费和药品费分别下降了17.1%和18.9%;城镇职工医保患者的医疗费用负担低于城乡居民医保患者,年龄越大的患者医疗费用负担越重;三级医院的降费减负效应强于二级及以下医院。结论:DRG支付具有显著的降费减负效应,其作用的着力点是降低了耗材费和药品费;在遵循我国医改顶层设计的基础上,应加快推进DRG支付方式改革,根据医院等级分层次探索匹配的DRG支付方式,同时关注患者的个体特征。

中国家庭婚姻支付的变动趋势、城乡差异与地区模式(1978—2018)

基于中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)数据库中涉及婚姻支付的数据,对改革开放40年来(1978—2018年)中国家庭婚姻支付的变动趋势、城乡差异和地区模式进行了分析。结果显示,城镇地区彩礼和嫁妆的发展比农村地区更为均衡,城镇地区彩礼和嫁妆上涨趋势基本一致,而农村地区2000年以后彩礼增长速度远超嫁妆,农村地区彩礼快速增长给家庭带来的经济负担大于城市地区。根据各地区城乡的彩礼金额和彩礼与嫁妆的比值,用K-means聚类分析方法分别划分26个地区的城镇和农村婚姻支付模式,可将婚姻支付模式划分为“非均衡式高彩礼”“非均衡式中等彩礼”“均衡式中等彩礼”和“均衡-非均衡式低彩礼”“均衡式高彩礼”(城市地区独有)5种类型。不同婚姻支付模式中的彩礼和嫁妆给家庭带来的经济负担不同,未来应从彩礼与嫁妆并行的角度分析“天价”彩礼的成因。

Synthesis of Large-scale Multistream Heat Exchanger Networks Based on Stream Pseudo Temperature

Effective temperature level of stream, namely stream pseudo temperature, is determined by its actual temperature and heat transfer temperature difference contribution value. Heat transfer temperature difference con-tribution value of a stream depends on its heat transfer film coefficient, cost per unit heat transfer area, actual tem-perature, and so on. In the determination of the suitable heat transfer temperature difference contribution values of the stream, the total annual cost of multistream heat exchanger network (MSHEN) is regarded as an objective func-tion, and genetic/simulated annealing algorithm (GA/SA) is adopted for optimizing the heat transfer temperature difference contribution values of the stream. The stream pseudo temperatures are subsequently obtained. On the ba-sis of stream pseudo temperature, optimized MSHEN can be attained by the temperature-enthalpy (T-H) diagram method. This approach is characterized with fewer decision variables and higher feasibility of solutions. The calcu-lation efficiency of GA/SA can be remarkably enhanced by this approach and more probability is shown in search-ing the global optimum solution. Hence this approach is presented for solving industrial-sized MSHEN which is difficult to deal by traditional algorithm. Moreover, in the optimization of stream heat transfer temperature differ-ence contribution values, the effects of the stream temperature, the heat transfer film coefficient, and the construc-tion material of heat exchangers are considered, therefore this approach can be used to optimize and design heat exchanger network (HEN) with unequal heat transfer film coefficients and different of construction materials. The performance of the proposed approach has been demonstrated with three examples and the obtained solutions are compared with those available in literatures. The results show that the large-scale MSHEN synthesis problems can be solved to obtain good solutions with the modest computational effort.

A numerical investigation of gas flow behavior in two-layered coal seams considering interlayer interference and heterogeneity

Multiple-seam gas coproduction is a technology with potential to achieve economic targets.Physical experiments could replicate gas flow dynamics in two seams.In this study,numerical simulation was conducted based on physical experiments.Through calibration,the simulated results agreed with the experimental results.Three findings were obtained.First,the pressure distribution intrinsically depends on the depressurization effectiveness in each coal seam.The gas pressure difference and interval distance influence the pressure distribution by inhibiting depressurization in the top seams and bottom seams,respectively.Second,the production contribution shows a logarithmic relationship with the permeability ratio.The range of the production contribution difference grows from 11.24%to 99.99%when the permeability ratio increases 50 times.By comparison,reservoir pressure has a limited influence,with a maximum of 13.64%.Third,the interlayer interference of the top seams and bottom seams can be intensified by the reservoir pressure difference and the interval distance,respectively.The proposed model has been calibrated and verified and can be directly applied to engineering,serving as a reference for reservoir combination optimization.In summary,coal seams with a permeability ratio within 10,reservoir pressure difference within 1.50 MPa,and interval distances within 50 m are recommended to coproduce together.

The willingness to pay for ecosystem services on the Tibetan Plateau of China

Ecosystem Services(ES)are common-pool resources that can be valued by people’s willingness to pay(WTP).In contrast to place-based WTP research at the community-level,the stakeholders tend to be geographically diverse,and the benefits are not spatially apparent on the national level.Aiming to find the geographical diversity of the WTP for ES at the large scale,this study implemented an online survey of more than 25,000 samples to detect the WTP of Chinese people for water conservation,soil retention,carbon fixation,pollution decomposition,biodiversity conservation,and aesthetic existence of the Tibetan Plateau.The results showed the top limit of payments was 1,080.95 CNY/year/capita on average,and people would like to pay 172.40 CNY/year/capita for water conservation,which is the highest among the six ES.The percent of people“Aged 16–35”,“Government agency staff”and“Know WTP”influenced payments at provincial level.On an individual level,people’s knowledge and attitudes directly drove the payment amounts,as well as their ecosystem management decisions.Consequently,geographical diversity of the payment for ES exists in China,and in contrast to the objective social structure and spatial accessibility of ES,people’s knowledge and attitudes were the main driving forces of this geographical diversity.These findings suggest that a bottom-up adaptive governance approach is encouraged for managing common pool resources in developing countries.

基于双重差分法的DRG付费对中医医院的影响研究

目的:评估按疾病诊断相关分组(DRG)付费对中医医院住院患者例均总费用、费用结构、住院时长、出院人数及中医特色的影响。方法:以某中医类国家区域医疗中心为研究对象,使用双重差分回归模型(DID)分析付费改革政策实施前后医保患者(干预组)与非医保患者(对照组)的各项指标差异,通过平行趋势检验和安慰剂检验证实模型可靠性和稳定性。结果:例均住院总费用、病例数、住院天数、医疗服务收入占比、饮片收入占比等十一项指标的DID交互项系数显著(P<0.05),费用指标回归系数均小于0。饮片使用率、中医非药物疗法收入占比等四项指标DID交互项系数不显著(P>0.05)。结论:DRG付费政策显著降低付费病组例均总费用,其中耗材、医技费用下降显著,费用结构优化,中药饮片费用占比略微下降。应持续关注DRG付费对中医医院影响,进一步扩大样本范围,跟踪分析政策影响,全面评价DRG付费政策对我国中医医疗机构的影响。

中国南北地区差异的要素分解与政策启示

21世纪以来,中国南北地区差异日益扩大,各增长要素作用差异明显。利用发展核算基础上的地区差异分解框架和1978—2022年中国省级地区数据,研究全要素生产率、物质资本、劳动投入对南北地区经济差异的影响,结果发现,南北地区总产出差异总体上呈现出持续扩大的趋势,但劳均产出近十多年来变化不大,劳动力和资本流入成为南方地区总产出更快增长的重要因素;全要素生产率差异一直是影响南北差异的重要因素,在很大程度上将会主导未来的区域差异趋势;物质资本差异受区域政策影响比较突出,但政策效果需要多方面协调考虑。要素分解对于缩小中国南北差异的政策启示在于,各地区要因地制宜发展新质生产力,进一步扩大改革开放,加快国际国内统一大市场建设,从而形成优势互补、高质量发展的区域经济布局。

DRG付费下甲状腺癌大手术患者支付差影响因素分析

目的:分析疾病诊断相关分组(DRG)付费下甲状腺癌大手术患者支付差的影响因素,为医院合理控制医疗成本提供参考。方法:选取某三甲医院2020—2022年所有甲状腺癌大手术组(KD1)患者作为研究对象,利用描述性统计、单因素方法和二分类Logistic回归分析患者支付差的影响因素。结果:住院天数、并发症与合并症、手术部位、是否颈清、是否腔镜、药品占比、耗材占比和手术占比是影响甲状腺癌大手术患者支付差的主要因素。结论:DRG改革下,医院应推广价值医疗的理念,促进临床规范诊疗,并加强病案质量审核,保证DRG正确入组,在此基础上合理调整费用结构,科学管控药耗成本,助力医院高质量发展。

基于双重差分模型的专病管理政策效果分析

目的分析专病管理政策(以下简称政策)实施效果,为公立医院加强运营管理,提升业财融合水平提供参考。方法收集某大型综合三甲医院2022年1月—2023年6月的住院患者信息,将国家三级公立医院绩效考核关注的十类单病种中的四类纳入专病管理作为研究组,剩余六类作为对照组,采用双重差分模型,分析专病管理患者住院均次费用、平均住院日、均次药品费用、均次耗材费用、均次检查治疗费用等相关指标在政策实施前后的变化。且按医保类型分类,进一步分析不同医保类型下政策实施效果的区别。结果共纳入22457例患者,其中研究组为5879例患者(政策实施前3164例,政策实施后2715例),对照组为19741例患者。双重差分模型分析显示,政策实施后,专病管理患者的均次住院费用下降32.7%,平均住院天数下降31.4%,药品费用下降49.5%,耗材费用下降24.2%,检查治疗费下降29.2%。且相较于非武汉市医保患者,武汉市医保患者相关指标下降幅度更大。结论政策实施能有效降低患者就医负担,提升医疗治疗效率,有助于医院精细化管理方式,加深业财融合,向精益化运营转型。

船用双层壳体齿轮箱柔性动力学建模及隔振性能分析研究

双层壳体齿轮箱不仅为齿轮传动系统提供弹性支撑,而且具有减振降噪作用。为了能够高效、高精度地预测双层壳体齿轮箱的减振降噪效果,本文基于模态综合法建立含有隔振器的某船用双层壳体齿轮箱柔性动力学缩聚模型,对比分析齿轮箱的缩聚模型与完全有限元模型的固有特性的差异性,并验证其缩聚模型的有效性。通过双层壳体齿轮箱缩聚模型的模态解耦率、模态贡献度、振级落差和内壳体倾斜度的分析,评估齿轮箱的隔振性能。结果表明:某船用双层壳体齿轮箱在平移方向上模态解耦率均在94.9%以上,模态贡献主要以第二至第六阶振型为主导;在激励频率1~6000 Hz范围内,双层壳体齿轮箱的振级落差可达到34.2 dB;当激励频率小于2000 Hz时,激励频率对振级落差和倾斜度的变化有着显著的影响。

The long-term simulation of surface SO_2 and evaluation of contributions from the different emission sources to Beijing city

With a high-resolution SO2 emission inventory categorized by industries and seasons for Beijing city and gridded meteorological data fields from NCEP, the pollution dispersion model, HYSPLIT4 (Hybrid Single Particulate Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory, version 4), is used to determine the day-to-day variation of surface SO2 in Beijing for 2000 and 2001. Furthermore,the contributions of different emission sources in and around Beijing to the surface SO2 are studied. As shown in comparison with observations, the model does well in simulating the daily variation and seasonal distribution. The model computation of the annual source contributions to Beijing surface SO2 indicates that local emissions from the city give the largest contribution and the sources from the surrounding regions contribute only about 20%. During SO2 polluted or unpolluted days, the contribution from the latter can exceed 30%, and depending upon weather conditions, the contribution may exceed 40%. If the emissions from the surrounding sources during the winter heating season are assumed to be doubled in intensity, their contribution to surface SO2 in Beijing increased from 21% to 35% and 25% to 40% in 2000 and 2001, respectively. Evaluation of 7 types of emission sources identified for Beijing for their relative contribution to the concentration of surface SO2 has shown that area emissions by industrial production and furnaces, though discharging relatively small amounts (less than 1/3 of the total), have the largest contribution to the urban surface SO2, which is the key to the mitigation of the pollutant in the city.

社会保险缴费征管与企业数字化转型——基于《社会保险法》实施的准自然实验

本文基于2007—2019年A股上市公司数据,以2011年《社会保险法》实施作为准自然实验,采用广义双重差分法考察社会保险缴费征管对企业数字化转型的影响。结果显示:《社会保险法》实施有助于推动企业数字化转型,且该效应在非国有性质、竞争激烈行业以及法治环境良好地区的企业中更为明显。机制分析表明,《社会保险法》实施提高了劳动力成本,这一方面会激励企业增加设备资本投入并优化人力资本结构,从物力和人力角度“倒逼”企业数字化转型,另一方面也会提高企业现金流约束水平,从财力角度“挤出”企业数字化转型,但前者的正向作用超过了后者的负向作用,总效应表现为促进企业数字化转型。进一步分析发现,社会保险征管机构变更为税务部门以及缴费率下调两项辅助政策改革,都会强化《社会保险法》实施对企业数字化转型的促进作用。研究结论为当前数字中国建设背景下社会保险“严征管”和“降费率”的制度优化方向提供了理论基础和经验支持。

“前港后厂”供应链“链-链”联盟利益分配

“前港后厂”模式下,港口为钢厂生产提供高质量的增值服务,形成了以港口服务供应链与钢厂制造供应链相辅相成的“链”与“链”联盟。而共生共赢的利益分配方案是影响联盟稳定与联盟绩效的关键因素。因此,为促进“前港后厂”供应链联盟有效运行,针对港口服务与钢铁制造“链-链”联盟的特点,考虑服务贡献度与服务时长差异,以联盟整体利益最大化为目标,构建了其利益分配模型。由于模型非线性、不可微,对结果精确性要求高,故选择搜索幅度广、进化空间大的细菌觅食优化算法求解。本文设计的觅食动力学与觅食优化算法相结合的新算法,克服了单一觅食优化算法翻转方向不确定导致其稳定性差的缺陷,提高了算法精确度及稳定性。使用Python语言仿真验证表明利益分配结果符合合作博弈理论中整体理性与个体理性原则,证明该利益分配模型公平高效,为制造业与服务业的“两业融合”提供了科学依据与理论方法。

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