The aim of this study was to develop an adequate mathematical model for long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth in the digital age (2020-2050). In addition, the task was to develop a model ...The aim of this study was to develop an adequate mathematical model for long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth in the digital age (2020-2050). In addition, the task was to develop a model for forecast calculations of labor productivity in the symbiosis of “man + intelligent machine”, where an intelligent machine (IM) is understood as a computer or robot equipped with elements of artificial intelligence (AI), as well as in the digital economy as a whole. In the course of the study, it was shown that in order to implement its goals the Schumpeter-Kondratiev innovation and cycle theory on forming long waves (LW) of economic development influenced by a powerful cluster of economic technologies engendered by industrial revolutions is most appropriate for a long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth. The Solow neoclassical model of economic growth, synchronized with LW, gives the opportunity to forecast economic dynamics of technologically advanced countries with a greater precision up to 30 years, the time which correlates with the continuation of LW. In the information and digital age, the key role among the main factors of growth (capital, labour and technological progress) is played by the latter. The authors have developed an information model which allows for forecasting technological progress basing on growth rates of endogenous technological information in economics. The main regimes of producing technological information, corresponding to the eras of information and digital economies, are given in the article, as well as the Lagrangians that engender them. The model is verified on the example of the 5<sup>th</sup> information LW for the US economy (1982-2018) and it has had highly accurate approximation for both technological progress and economic growth. A number of new results were obtained using the developed information models for forecasting technological progress. The forecasting trajectory of economic growth of developed countries (on the example of the USA) on the upward stage of the 6<sup>th</sup> LW (2018-2042), engendered by the digital technologies of the 4<sup>th</sup> Industrial Revolution is given. It is also demonstrated that the symbiosis of human and intelligent machine (IM) is the driving force in the digital economy, where man plays the leading role organizing effective and efficient mutual work. Authors suggest a mathematical model for calculating labour productivity in the digital economy, where the symbiosis of “human + IM” is widely used. The calculations carried out with the help of the model show: 1) the symbiosis of “human + IM” from the very beginning lets to realize the possibilities of increasing work performance in the economy with the help of digital technologies;2) the largest labour productivity is achieved in the symbiosis of “human + IM”, where man labour prevails, and the lowest labour productivity is seen where the largest part of the work is performed by IM;3) developed countries may achieve labour productivity of 3% per year by the mid-2020s, which has all the chances to stay up to the 2040s.展开更多
In taking into full consideration of the technology acceptance model(TAM),this empirical study has made a few assumptions and also has formulated a model for the study on the level of satisfaction of database users. T...In taking into full consideration of the technology acceptance model(TAM),this empirical study has made a few assumptions and also has formulated a model for the study on the level of satisfaction of database users. This research project was conducted by collecting relevant data from library users of five universities. Specifically, it aimed to measure database users' level of satisfaction and tried to find factors affecting these graduate students who are using databases regularly at their university libraries. An analysis of the collected data shows that the level of database users' satisfaction could be directly affected by the database service quality, the easiness of accessing the system and user perceived notion of usefulness of those databases that they use often. This study also found that database users' gender could be a significant factor in their perceived notion of easiness of accessing databases, and also in their perceived notion of satisfaction for their successful information retrieval operations. The frequency of accessing databases by these graduate students has an impact on users' perceived notion of easiness of database access. The users' school classifications could make a significant difference in their perceived notion on the extent of usefulness of a particular database.展开更多
An analysis is done on the requirements for information resource exchange, integration, share and interop-erability in urban application. More analysis on the development trends of Web service technologies and applica...An analysis is done on the requirements for information resource exchange, integration, share and interop-erability in urban application. More analysis on the development trends of Web service technologies and applicationservice models are made. Then the concept and models of Digital City application services are discussed. Furthermore, the concept, model and architecture of Digital City Application Service Platform are put forward. These mod-els and architectural designing have been applying to the Project of Beijing Information Resource Network Center anda key technological framework has been implemented accordingly.展开更多
文摘The aim of this study was to develop an adequate mathematical model for long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth in the digital age (2020-2050). In addition, the task was to develop a model for forecast calculations of labor productivity in the symbiosis of “man + intelligent machine”, where an intelligent machine (IM) is understood as a computer or robot equipped with elements of artificial intelligence (AI), as well as in the digital economy as a whole. In the course of the study, it was shown that in order to implement its goals the Schumpeter-Kondratiev innovation and cycle theory on forming long waves (LW) of economic development influenced by a powerful cluster of economic technologies engendered by industrial revolutions is most appropriate for a long-term forecasting of technological progress and economic growth. The Solow neoclassical model of economic growth, synchronized with LW, gives the opportunity to forecast economic dynamics of technologically advanced countries with a greater precision up to 30 years, the time which correlates with the continuation of LW. In the information and digital age, the key role among the main factors of growth (capital, labour and technological progress) is played by the latter. The authors have developed an information model which allows for forecasting technological progress basing on growth rates of endogenous technological information in economics. The main regimes of producing technological information, corresponding to the eras of information and digital economies, are given in the article, as well as the Lagrangians that engender them. The model is verified on the example of the 5<sup>th</sup> information LW for the US economy (1982-2018) and it has had highly accurate approximation for both technological progress and economic growth. A number of new results were obtained using the developed information models for forecasting technological progress. The forecasting trajectory of economic growth of developed countries (on the example of the USA) on the upward stage of the 6<sup>th</sup> LW (2018-2042), engendered by the digital technologies of the 4<sup>th</sup> Industrial Revolution is given. It is also demonstrated that the symbiosis of human and intelligent machine (IM) is the driving force in the digital economy, where man plays the leading role organizing effective and efficient mutual work. Authors suggest a mathematical model for calculating labour productivity in the digital economy, where the symbiosis of “human + IM” is widely used. The calculations carried out with the help of the model show: 1) the symbiosis of “human + IM” from the very beginning lets to realize the possibilities of increasing work performance in the economy with the help of digital technologies;2) the largest labour productivity is achieved in the symbiosis of “human + IM”, where man labour prevails, and the lowest labour productivity is seen where the largest part of the work is performed by IM;3) developed countries may achieve labour productivity of 3% per year by the mid-2020s, which has all the chances to stay up to the 2040s.
基金supported by the Ministry of Education of China(Grant No.05JZD00024)
文摘In taking into full consideration of the technology acceptance model(TAM),this empirical study has made a few assumptions and also has formulated a model for the study on the level of satisfaction of database users. This research project was conducted by collecting relevant data from library users of five universities. Specifically, it aimed to measure database users' level of satisfaction and tried to find factors affecting these graduate students who are using databases regularly at their university libraries. An analysis of the collected data shows that the level of database users' satisfaction could be directly affected by the database service quality, the easiness of accessing the system and user perceived notion of usefulness of those databases that they use often. This study also found that database users' gender could be a significant factor in their perceived notion of easiness of accessing databases, and also in their perceived notion of satisfaction for their successful information retrieval operations. The frequency of accessing databases by these graduate students has an impact on users' perceived notion of easiness of database access. The users' school classifications could make a significant difference in their perceived notion on the extent of usefulness of a particular database.
文摘An analysis is done on the requirements for information resource exchange, integration, share and interop-erability in urban application. More analysis on the development trends of Web service technologies and applicationservice models are made. Then the concept and models of Digital City application services are discussed. Furthermore, the concept, model and architecture of Digital City Application Service Platform are put forward. These mod-els and architectural designing have been applying to the Project of Beijing Information Resource Network Center anda key technological framework has been implemented accordingly.
