Future demographic dividend——tapping the source of China’s economic growth

This paper presents a review of the demographic dividend in China’s economic growth or the contribution of the demographic factor to China’s rapid economic growth over the past 30 years. Based on this review, it explores how China has sustained high-speed economic growth in the midst of a slowdown in working age population growth, surplus labor depletion and population aging. This study intends to demonstrate that the second demographic dividend may still arise after the decline and even disappearance of the first demographic dividend to avoid demographic debt by boosting labor productivity through the furtherance of education, extending the competitive advantage of China’s industry, tapping new sources of savings through institutional arrangements of pension security, and expanding labor resource and human capital stock in the aging era through the institutional arrangements in the labor market.

Population Quality-based Demographic Dividend,Industrial Transformation and Sustainable Development of the Chinese Economy and Society

China is faced with a decreasing labor supply and therefore is losing its cost advantage.However,benefiting from continuous improvement of population quality,China's population quality-based demographic dividend begins to replace the quantity-based dividend to play a dominant role in economic development.Thus,in supply-side structure,rather than essential factors,it paves the way for the sustainable development of the Chinese economy.With the addition of the successful industrial transformation and upgrading,China still has the advantage to overcome the middle income trap and maintain the momentum of economic growth.

Transition from Demographic Dividend to Reform Dividend:——Simulation of China's Potential Growth Rate

Due to diminishing demographic dividend characterized by a falling workingage population and rising dependency ratio, China's long-term potential growth rates will keep declining, likely to be a mere 6.6% during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period(2016-2020). China's economic growth sustainability hinges upon its transition from the previous dependence on demographic dividend to the future reform dividend. In the growth accounting equation, we have simulated various reform initiatives and arrived at the following findings. First, although both the labor participation rate and TFP can increase China's potential growth rate, the former will only achieve a short-term growth effect, which will diminish in the long run. By contrast, the growth effect of TFP demonstrates the tendency of continuous increase. This further indicates that China's economic growth will increasingly rely on TFP improvement instead of traditional factor input. Second, different from the diminishing growth effect of enrolment rate, training may play a pivotal role in human capital development to significantly enhance potential growth rates. Third, if all reform initiatives can achieve their expected effects, integrated reform dividends may reach one or two percentage points of China's potential growth rate.

A Study of the Universal Two-child Policy’s Impact on China’s Future Population

The most essential step in adjusting and improving the childbearing policy, the universal two-child policy will produce far-reaching impacts on the future development of China’s population. With its implementation, the country’s total population will peak later, the underage population and its proportion will increase substantially, the working-age population will experience a slower decline, and the aging of China’s population will be eased. However, the drop in the proportion of working-age people over the last 15 years has expedited the reduction of the demographic dividend, the elderly population will remain unaffected over the next 60 years, the aging of the population will continue to deepen, and at the same time, the increased child dependency burden will expand the overall dependency ratio.

Study on the Perceptions and Social Representations of Husbands on Family Planning in the Health District of Pout/Senegal

Contraception is a set of procedures that aim to achieve temporary infertility in a woman without her ability to conceive being engaged in the future. It plays an essential role in the health of women and children, the psychological well-being of husbands and allows, among other things, savings for the family. The objective was to study the perceptions and social representations of husbands on family planning. A mixed method was used with a qualitative dominance, carried out in the health district of Pout. The result showed that the perceptions and representations of husbands influence this practice family planning. Even if they have positive attitudes and a good level of knowledge about contraceptive methods, their involvement in FP practices remains low with gaps to be filled. Direct or intermediate variables such as the social, cultural, economic and religious aspects are pitfalls. Indeed, the commitment of men and the consideration of their social attributes are variables to be integrated into the process of information and awareness on family planning;this is crucial in achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3 (Good Health and Well-being), including its target 7 focused on sexual and proactive health: a second best move towards the demographic dividend.

Harnessing Demographic Dividends

THE history of all developed economies and even the emerging ones have been their abilities to harness human resource into capital and use its diverse multiplier effects to create value chains spanning all other resources categories. In addition, this process unleashes outcomes that include a rise in national economic aggregates and more importantly, improved quality of living standards for citizens.

Is It Demographic Dividend or Trap for India and China?

The relation between economic growth and population growth is a widely debated topic in economics.The discussioncircles around three main views about demography;(i) Population Neutralism,(ii) Demographic Dividends,and (iii)Demographic Traps.This paper provides a quantitative definition of the demographic trap based on the theoreticaldemographic distribution curve.We then compare the results of the world’s two most populous countries,China and India.The results show that India may fall into a demographic trap while China will not and,hence these two countries exhibittwo distinctly opposite demographic characteristics.Extending the results to include examination of a set of rich and poorcountries,we conclude that there is no evidence of a demographic trap in the U.S.and Canada,while it is highly possiblethat Algeria and Angola will get caught in one.

End of the First Demographic Dividend and Possible Labor Market Response in China and Other Asian Countries(Regions)

This paper sheds light on the nexus of age compositional shifts and the generation of the first demographic dividend over the past several decades in China, and also discusses how this dividend could be extended. We first estimate how long China ＇s first demographic dividend will last and then compare the computed results for China with those for other selected Asian countries in order to place the Chinese case in a wider perspective. Furthermore, in view of the possibility that China ＇s first demographic dividend will turn negative in 2014, we offer insight into how and to what extent China ＂s labor market needs to adjust and how much labor income must increase for the first demographic dividend to remain positive up to year 2050. For this goal to be achieved, the labor income age profile needs to be shifted to a considerable extent. We conduct an exercise in which the 2007peak labor income age of 32 years is shifted to 40years. In the case of the elderly, this implies an annual labor income growth of 3.1 percent over the period of 39 years. Throughout this paper, we draw on a variety of computed results derived from the Chinese component of the global ＂National Transfer Accounts＂ project.

The Second Demographic Dividend as a Driver of China's Growth

As China’s demographic transition enters a new stage,the“first demographic dividend”-the economic advantage resulting from demographic changes in recent decades-is bound to disappear permanently.China s future development will be characterized by an aging population.The“second demographic dividend”refers to new sources of economic growth derived from this later population change.This paper reveals major constraints caused by aging in China,which is characterized by a tendency to grow old before becoming rich.As the population ages,human capital improvement slows,labor force participation declines and consumption power reduces.This paper suggests taking advantage of a population“echo effect”to improve human capital at all ages,to enhance workers’ability to benefit from employment,and to improve the labor participation rate of the elderly,which in turn would increase the income and social security of the aged.These measures are conducive tofuture economic growth and to the cultivation of the second demographic dividend.

China’s Second Demographic Window of Opportunity

The demographic dividend refers to the process of transforming population advantages into economic ones to achieve rapid growth. The opening and acquisition of a demographic window of opportunity requires corresponding institutional guarantees. Thanks to reform and opening-up, China has opened and reaped its first demographic window of opportunity. As China enters the critical stage of reform and upgrades for economic development, population advantages have been shifting from quantity to quality on a solid basis, marking the opening of our second demographic window of opportunity. Establishing and implementing compatible social and economic policies will be helpful to maximize advantages of this demographic “gift” and modernize China’s economic system.

中国式第二次人口红利:理论探究与治理选择

随着全球范围内人口老龄化程度不断加深,传统人口红利逐渐式微,第二次人口红利理论的提出为人口老龄化背景下的经济增长开拓了新视角。中国式第二次人口红利理论的核心观点是人口质量的提升可以部分抵消由人口老龄化导致的劳动年龄人口持续减少带来的负面影响,并且在科学技术快速发展和广泛应用的大趋势下,能够充分发挥各年龄段尤其是年长劳动人口的人力资源潜能,重构社会经济生产方式,最终促进国民经济的持续稳定增长。我国正处于能够实现中国式第二次人口红利的发展阶段并具备将其兑现的现实条件。实现中国式第二次人口红利需要政策制定者基于正确认识人口红利相关理论、把握未来中国人口长期动态、秉持供给侧和需求侧双管齐下等人口治理策略,对社会和市场进行有效政策指引,在人口老龄化的大趋势下实现社会经济的持续稳定发展。

人口集聚对经济高质量发展的作用机制研究

经济发展初期,人口集聚对经济增长具有显著的正向促进作用,然而随着人口红利的消失及粗放式发展呈现出的负外部性加剧,现阶段我国经济发展面临巨大挑战,经济增速开始放缓。此时,中国发展迈入新的转折点,国家开始将重心从速度转向质量与效益,更注重经济增长的可持续性。本文紧扣新发展理念,围绕创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享五个维度展开分析,构建人口集聚对经济高质量发展作用机制的理论分析框架,并得出结论:人口集聚对经济高质量发展的影响呈倒“U”型关系,并存在空间溢出效应,产业结构高级化在此过程中起正向调节作用。鉴于此,积极发挥人口集聚的经济效应,制定适宜的人口调控政策,推进经济高质量发展区域协调化及深化产业结构高级化可以有效推进我国经济高质量发展。

东南亚地区跨境电商直播发展机遇、挑战与对策研究

互联网新技术的迭代升级推动了跨境电商的发展,跨境电商直播新业态凭借实时互动的特性为消费者带来了全新的购物体验,进而在全球范围迅速蔓延。东南亚市场作为全球数字经济发展最具潜力的市场之一,庞大的人口红利、较高的互联网渗透率和城市化水平以及中国与东南亚密切的经贸关系,为东南亚地区跨境电商直播提供了巨大的发展机遇。同时,东南亚跨境电商直播发展面临诸多挑战,例如语言多样货币不统一、不同国家间消费偏好差异大、政府监管态度趋严、物流基础设施落后、第三方支付普及度低等。未来,要提高东南亚跨境电商直播本地化运营能力、加强跨境直播电商生态体系建设与风险管理、完善物流基础设施建设、抱团破局拓展东南亚物流业务、建立跨境电商第三方支付系统,以推动东南亚地区跨境电商直播的稳步发展。

人口转型视域下职业教育提升人口红利对策研究

随着我国人口内生性负增长不断加剧,为稳定社会经济活动所依赖的人力资源总量,通过释放职业教育红利全面提升人力资本以追寻质量型人口红利成为我国人口红利发展新向度。人口数量规模和质量效益两个维度下的人力资本积累是人口转型期人口高质量发展的本质诉求,与职业教育高质量发展在劳动者培育、教育资本积累、支撑经济社会发展三个方面形成内涵对应关系。据此,在澄清职业教育提升人口红利的现实问题与价值诉求基础上,以劳动参与率、教育资源、劳动者数量、劳动者素质、平均受教育年限、劳动生产率为改善目标,提出职业教育应对稳固数量型人口红利且向质量型人口红利过渡的基础对策和效益对策。

中国人口红利的空间流动及其经济效应

人口红利代表的是人口转变过程中能为经济增长提供额外优势的人口年龄结构,随着劳动年龄人口在空间上的转移,会相应形成一种人口红利的空间流动。由于中国长期面临区域发展不平衡的基本国情,人口红利的空间流动便产生了不同的区域经济效应。文章结合人口红利相关理论,对人口红利空间流动及其经济效应进行梳理与分析,并通过对人口红利在中国东、中、西部三大地区做出的经济增长贡献及其变化差异进行实证研究,证明在人口红利式微的背景之下,存在由经济欠发达地区向经济发达地区的人口红利流动推迟了东部地区人口红利向人口负债的转变,东部地区较中西部地区的人口红利机会窗口期关闭得更晚,实现了人口红利的空间补偿,最大化地提升了人口红利的综合经济效率。而东部地区人口质量红利对人口数量红利的替代进程较中西部地区也依然处于领先水平。与此同时,文章也关注到东部地区吸收的人口红利于中西部地区而言则是一种人口红利的流失,使得中西部地区人口红利受到挤兑,扩大了各区域间的经济发展差距。基于这一现实状况,秉持着效率和公平兼具的发展观念,文章认为应通过强化主体功能区建设、完善跨区域补偿机制及推动基本公共服务均等化,以实现区域协调发展和可持续发展。

推动人口红利向人才红利转变:形势、逻辑和路径

人口问题始终是一个全局性、战略性问题。通过体制机制改革激活人口红利优势是我国实现第一个百年目标的重要经验。在新的发展阶段,激活人才红利优势,实现由人口红利向人才红利转变是实现第二个百年奋斗目标的历史选择。这既是经济进入高质量发展阶段的必然要求,也是适应人口结构发生深刻变化的必然选择。新时代新征程要优化人口发展战略、建设高质量教育体系、深化人才体制机制改革和引进用好国际人才资源,双向提高经济结构和人口结构的匹配度,推动人口红利向人才红利转变,增强我国的国家核心竞争力,推动经济高质量发展。

人口老龄化的经济效应研究

人口老龄化问题已对各个领域产生深远的影响。随着老龄化程度的日趋深化,中国数量型人口红利效应式微,人口结构失衡给经济社会可持续发展带来了一系列冲击。本文利用我国省市区的面板数据,构建Cobb-Douglas生产函数扩展模型,从静态、动态两个角度对人口老龄化的经济效应进行实证研究。结果发现,短期内,老年人口的快速增长导致劳动力人口的预防动机发生变化,并形成第二次人口红利,从而刺激经济增长。长期看,老年抚养比迅速攀升,经济社会受到的负面冲击会持续扩大,且劳动力人口占比较老年抚养比对经济发展具有更大的负向作用。国家应积极从经济发展方式、生育政策、老年产业、养老保障和服务体系等方面采取有效应对措施。

Demographic Origins of the Great Recession:Implications for China

The demographic dividend, that is, the growth of the working age population aged 16years relative to younger and older age dependents, has often been cited as a crucial component of the accelerated economic growth experienced by disparate countries and regions at different points in time. Generally less emphasized are the ramifications of this proeess when it occurs in reverse; that is, when the relative size of the working age population begins to shrink. Related to this is the more subtle effect of changes to the age structure of the overall working age population, which can have compounding or offsetting effects in relation to the demographic dividend noted above. This paper explores how these age-related phenomena were instrumental to both the Great Depression and the Great Recession of 2008. We explore how the generational eomposition of economic actors and the aging of the baby-boom worker may have played a role in provoking these remarkable recessionary periods. The reversal of the demographic dividend and the aging of the working age population are factors now contributing to the propagation of the global economic downturn, as witnessed in the example of Japan over the past half-century. This paper applies the lessons of the Great Depression, the Great Recession and Japan to offer a forward-looking analysis of the Chinese economy. China is on the precipiee of a significant demographic shift whose implications for economic growth are explored.

Economic Growth, Demographic Change and Rural-Urban Migration in China

Is China able to maintain fast growth after three decades？ This paper tries to answer this question by： 1） arguing that factors contributed to sustained long-run growth at supply side;2） focusing on contributions of demographic dividend especially that of rural-urban migration;and 3） analyzing rural demographic change with information collected through village-wide household survey.Policy alternatives to realize remaining potential demographic dividend are proposed based on the analysis of changing rural demographic structure.