Germany has recently taken multiple actions to adjust its security policy: for instance, promoting re-militarization, increasing foreign military intervention and overseas operations, and adopting measures to comprehe...Germany has recently taken multiple actions to adjust its security policy: for instance, promoting re-militarization, increasing foreign military intervention and overseas operations, and adopting measures to comprehensively safeguard security in the domains of energy, supply chain, and ideology. Externally, such moves result directly from the threat of a hot war emanating from the Russia–Ukraine crisis. Germany is severely deficient in hard power and the rules and order on which it previously relied are proving increasingly ineffective. The nation is also witnessing a sharply rising sense of insecurity as its inter-system competition with nonWestern countries intensifies. Internally, the present policy shift represents a continuation of German foreign policy transformations initiated during the Merkel era. This change is strongly driven by the new ruling coalition, especially the Green Party, and is staunchly supported by the public. In the future, Germany will probably further normalize its military, intensify its confrontations with non-Western countries, and diversify its means of comprehensively safeguarding security. However, security-related policy transformation processes will be time-consuming and Germany’s investments will not immediately pay off. Traditionally, Germany tends toward the pragmatic and balanced implementation of policies. Thus, it is less likely to pursue military hegemony than to increasingly assume security responsibilities within the Western alliance.展开更多
The Russia–Ukraine crisis has hit hard the grain production and exports of both countries,weakening their positions on global food markets.Moreover,the crisis has resulted in a shortage of fertilizer supply and a sha...The Russia–Ukraine crisis has hit hard the grain production and exports of both countries,weakening their positions on global food markets.Moreover,the crisis has resulted in a shortage of fertilizer supply and a sharp increase in fertilizer prices.Consequently,global food production is declining,prices are hitting record highs,and market structures are shifting.Overall,global food insecurity is worsening,which,on top of several other factors,could become permanent as an aftermath of the Russia–Ukraine crisis.Therefore,food insecurity has become a topical issue in global governance.Spiking food prices and the ensuing political turbulence in vulnerable countries have altered the balance of strength between developed and developing countries,aggravating the existing imbalance between them.Furthermore,major food-producing countries are using food as a weapon to increase their influence in a fresh round of strategic competition,adding more uncertainties to the once-in-a-century changes shaping the world today.展开更多
After the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine conflict, Japan wasted no time in advancing its national strategy and actively promoted shuttle diplomacy with the United States(U.S.), Europe, East Asia, and neighboring coun...After the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine conflict, Japan wasted no time in advancing its national strategy and actively promoted shuttle diplomacy with the United States(U.S.), Europe, East Asia, and neighboring countries of Ukraine around sanctions against Russia based on strategic considerations and the goal of maximizing national interests. Japan regarded this conflict as an important opportunity for an international strategic game, in an attempt to move and overturn the postwar international order and reconstruct the new global order with the U.S., Europe, and Japan as the core countries dominating the military, science and technology, and economic spheres. In response to the crisis, Japan made a brief policy adjustment—from the initial hesitation to the imposition of active sanctions and pressure on Russia—to reverse the passive situation on the issue of the Four Northern Islands and weaken Russia’s strength. Japan also took the opportunity to promote the “China threat theory”;strengthen the quadrilateral mechanism between the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia;provoke regional confrontation;and try to gain a new Cold War dividend.展开更多
To assess the elasticity of crude oil price to global factors related to supply of crude oil and the US dollar exchange rate, the authors employed nonlinear models including flexible least squares, and maximum likelih...To assess the elasticity of crude oil price to global factors related to supply of crude oil and the US dollar exchange rate, the authors employed nonlinear models including flexible least squares, and maximum likelihood estimator, in addition to OLS regression mode;using yearly data from 1965 to 2021. The findings indicate change in oil prices due to 1% change in any of the explanatory variables, as follows: the effect of the US dollar depreciation rate, raise crude oil price/barrel by 71 US cents;and increase in OPEC production, decrease crude oil price by 82 US cents;a decrease in non-OPEC production, raise oil price by 4.78 US$. These results imply that, if a ban imposed on Russian crude oil export, and no increase in OPEC production to compensate Russian oil loss in the international markets, global crude oil price expected to rise by 88 US$ above its level before Russian-Ukraine crisis, meaning that crude oil price expected to rise at 160 US$ pbab. However, if OPEC members increase their output level by 10 million barrels per day to compensate the Russian oil loss, then global crude oil price is expected to stay at 102 US$ pb.展开更多
The outbreak of the Ukraine crisis has accelerated the adjustment and power shifts of the European Union.Germany does not play the role model as it used to,its willingness and ability to make contributions have declin...The outbreak of the Ukraine crisis has accelerated the adjustment and power shifts of the European Union.Germany does not play the role model as it used to,its willingness and ability to make contributions have declined,and it has become a follower rather than a leader in the crisis response.The “Atlanticists” dominate the EU,and the “Europeanists” are weakened.Germany's all-round dependence on the United States has increased.France has lost traction on the EU,the German–French axis is absent,and the Central and Eastern European and Northern European countries are gaining momentum.Compared with other EU institutions and member states,the status and influence of the European Commission has been enhanced,leading the sanctions against Russia,participating more in the common security and defense policy,and contributing to the geo-politicization of EU economic policies.These changes will increase internal disputes within the EU,weaken the EU's international status and influence,and reduce the stability and predictability of the EU's China policy.展开更多
文摘Germany has recently taken multiple actions to adjust its security policy: for instance, promoting re-militarization, increasing foreign military intervention and overseas operations, and adopting measures to comprehensively safeguard security in the domains of energy, supply chain, and ideology. Externally, such moves result directly from the threat of a hot war emanating from the Russia–Ukraine crisis. Germany is severely deficient in hard power and the rules and order on which it previously relied are proving increasingly ineffective. The nation is also witnessing a sharply rising sense of insecurity as its inter-system competition with nonWestern countries intensifies. Internally, the present policy shift represents a continuation of German foreign policy transformations initiated during the Merkel era. This change is strongly driven by the new ruling coalition, especially the Green Party, and is staunchly supported by the public. In the future, Germany will probably further normalize its military, intensify its confrontations with non-Western countries, and diversify its means of comprehensively safeguarding security. However, security-related policy transformation processes will be time-consuming and Germany’s investments will not immediately pay off. Traditionally, Germany tends toward the pragmatic and balanced implementation of policies. Thus, it is less likely to pursue military hegemony than to increasingly assume security responsibilities within the Western alliance.
文摘The Russia–Ukraine crisis has hit hard the grain production and exports of both countries,weakening their positions on global food markets.Moreover,the crisis has resulted in a shortage of fertilizer supply and a sharp increase in fertilizer prices.Consequently,global food production is declining,prices are hitting record highs,and market structures are shifting.Overall,global food insecurity is worsening,which,on top of several other factors,could become permanent as an aftermath of the Russia–Ukraine crisis.Therefore,food insecurity has become a topical issue in global governance.Spiking food prices and the ensuing political turbulence in vulnerable countries have altered the balance of strength between developed and developing countries,aggravating the existing imbalance between them.Furthermore,major food-producing countries are using food as a weapon to increase their influence in a fresh round of strategic competition,adding more uncertainties to the once-in-a-century changes shaping the world today.
文摘After the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine conflict, Japan wasted no time in advancing its national strategy and actively promoted shuttle diplomacy with the United States(U.S.), Europe, East Asia, and neighboring countries of Ukraine around sanctions against Russia based on strategic considerations and the goal of maximizing national interests. Japan regarded this conflict as an important opportunity for an international strategic game, in an attempt to move and overturn the postwar international order and reconstruct the new global order with the U.S., Europe, and Japan as the core countries dominating the military, science and technology, and economic spheres. In response to the crisis, Japan made a brief policy adjustment—from the initial hesitation to the imposition of active sanctions and pressure on Russia—to reverse the passive situation on the issue of the Four Northern Islands and weaken Russia’s strength. Japan also took the opportunity to promote the “China threat theory”;strengthen the quadrilateral mechanism between the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia;provoke regional confrontation;and try to gain a new Cold War dividend.
文摘To assess the elasticity of crude oil price to global factors related to supply of crude oil and the US dollar exchange rate, the authors employed nonlinear models including flexible least squares, and maximum likelihood estimator, in addition to OLS regression mode;using yearly data from 1965 to 2021. The findings indicate change in oil prices due to 1% change in any of the explanatory variables, as follows: the effect of the US dollar depreciation rate, raise crude oil price/barrel by 71 US cents;and increase in OPEC production, decrease crude oil price by 82 US cents;a decrease in non-OPEC production, raise oil price by 4.78 US$. These results imply that, if a ban imposed on Russian crude oil export, and no increase in OPEC production to compensate Russian oil loss in the international markets, global crude oil price expected to rise by 88 US$ above its level before Russian-Ukraine crisis, meaning that crude oil price expected to rise at 160 US$ pbab. However, if OPEC members increase their output level by 10 million barrels per day to compensate the Russian oil loss, then global crude oil price is expected to stay at 102 US$ pb.
文摘The outbreak of the Ukraine crisis has accelerated the adjustment and power shifts of the European Union.Germany does not play the role model as it used to,its willingness and ability to make contributions have declined,and it has become a follower rather than a leader in the crisis response.The “Atlanticists” dominate the EU,and the “Europeanists” are weakened.Germany's all-round dependence on the United States has increased.France has lost traction on the EU,the German–French axis is absent,and the Central and Eastern European and Northern European countries are gaining momentum.Compared with other EU institutions and member states,the status and influence of the European Commission has been enhanced,leading the sanctions against Russia,participating more in the common security and defense policy,and contributing to the geo-politicization of EU economic policies.These changes will increase internal disputes within the EU,weaken the EU's international status and influence,and reduce the stability and predictability of the EU's China policy.
