Climate change vulnerability assessment in the new urban planning process in Tanzania

Climate change vulnerability assessment is an essential tool for identifying regions that are most susceptible to the impacts of climate change and designing effective adaptation actions that can reduce vulnerability and enhance long-term resilience of these regions.This study explored a framework for climate change vulnerability assessment in the new urban planning process in Jangwani Ward,Tanzania.Specifically,taking flood as an example,this study highlighted the steps and methods for climate change vulnerability assessment in the new urban planning process.In the study area,95 households were selected and interviewed through purposeful sampling.Additionally,10 respondents(4 females and 6 males)were interviewed for Focus Group Discussion(FGD),and 3 respondents(1 female and 2 males)were selected for Key Informant Interviews(KII)at the Ministry of Lands,Housing and Human Settlements Development.This study indicated that climate change vulnerability assessment framework involves the assessment of climatic hazards,risk elements,and adaptive capacity,and the determination of vulnerability levels.The average hazard risk rating of flood was 2.3.Socioeconomic and livelihood activities and physical infrastructures both had the average risk element rating of 3.0,and ecosystems had the average risk element rating of 2.9.Adaptive capacity ratings of knowledge,technology,economy or finance,and institution were 1.6,1.9,1.4,and 2.2,respectively.The vulnerability levels of socioeconomic and livelihood activities and physical infrastructure were very high(4.0).Ecosystems had a high vulnerability level(3.8)to flood.The very high vulnerability level of socioeconomic and livelihood activities was driven by high exposure and sensitivity to risk elements and low adaptive capacity.The study recommends adoption of the new urban planning process including preparation,planning,implementation,and monitoring-evaluation-review phases that integrates climate change vulnerability assessment in all phases.

Effect of Sea Level Rise and Groundwater Withdrawal on Seawater Intrusion in the Gulf Coast Aquifer: Implications for Agriculture

The two main factors contributing to depletion of freshwater resources are climate change and anthropological variables. This study presents statistical analyses that are local in its specifics yet global in its relevance. The decline in Gulf Coast aquifer water quality and quantity has been alarming especially with the increased demand on fresh water in neighboring non-coastal communities. This study used seawater levels, groundwater use, and well data to investigate the association of these factors on the salinity of water indicated by chloride levels. Statistical analyses were conducted pointing to the high significance of both sea water level and groundwater withdrawals to chloride concentrations. However, groundwater withdrawal had higher significance which points to the need of water management systems in order to limit groundwater use. The findings also point to the great impact of increased groundwater salinity in the Gulf Coast aquifer on agriculture and socioeconomic status of coastal communities. The high costs of desalinization point to the increased signification of water rerouting and groundwater management systems. Further investigation and actions are in dire need to manage these vulnerabilities of the coastal communities.

Application of Geo-Processing Model for a Quantitative Assessment of Coastal Exposure and Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise in the Sultanate of Oman

The Sultanate of Oman has a long coastline extending for about 3165 km including a number of bays and islands. Oman’s coastline borders the Arabian Gulf, the Sea of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Most of this coastline is soft and low laying shore subject to the dynamics of sediment transport and the landward retreat of the shoreline, caused by anthropogenic factors and sea level rise associated with climate change. This paper aims to assess the vulnerability of the entire Omani coastal zone to the expected sea level rise and storm surge. Methodology is based on applying Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI) to identify clusters of high vulnerability areas according to their sensitivity and dynamic nature and increased risk resulted from seal level rise, erosion and extreme weather events. The coastal line of the governorates of Al Batinah, Muscat and Al-Wusta has scored highly due to possessing similar physical attributes. Based on that assessment a coastal vulnerability database utilizing GIS was created to help stakeholders involved in the coastal management to make better decisions.

Vulnerability Assessment of Climate Change on Sea Level Rise Impacts on Some Economic Sectors in Binh Dinh Province, Vietnam

Assessing the vulnerability for some economic sectors of Binh Dinh province plays a very important role. The study has applied the vulnerability method according to Iyengar and Sudarshan to assess vulnerability for 03 different sectors: 1) Agriculture, forestry and fisheries;2) Industry and construction and 3) Service. Calculation results of vulnerability classification for different sector groups according to the E, S, AC, and Vi indicators are used to develop a hierarchy of vulnerability classification for different sector groups. The calculation results indicate that only Phu My district has a high vulnerability index for agriculture, forestry and fisheries with the value of Vi?= 0.6;For the service sector, only Quy Nhon City has a high vulnerability index with the value of Vi?= 0.63. The vulnerability index calculated for sector groups for the remaining regions is low to moderate. The result of the vulnerability classification maps due to sea level rise will help planners and managers make plans, plans and solutions to mitigate risks caused by natural disasters.

Empirical Assessment of Coastal Environmental Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise

Sea level rise (SLR) could critically endanger the environment along all the world’s sea coasts. Although sudden SLRs of meters-high waves that might have apocalyptic results would generally be limited to specific areas, on-going SLR of dozens of cms over decades is likely to have adverse impact on coastal environments throughout the world. This study’s objective is to assess relative regional vulnerability of global sea coasts to SLR. The study focuses upon key natural and anthropogenic parameters that might either cause or enhance SLR and thus significantly influence regional coastal environments. Careful assessment can enable reasonable estimates of relative vulnerability of such environments. An initial step involves specifying key parameters and assigning their weightings and ratings. To demonstrate the feasibility of this approach, six seacoast regions from various parts of the world have been considered in this paper, assessing their natural and anthropogenic parameters vis-à-vis general global data. The results emphasize the relative vulnerability of these areas’ environments to SLR. Recommendations are then made for improving global SLR modeling and monitoring.

Development of Coastal Vulnerability Index for the Kingdom of Bahrain

The CVI （coastal vulnerability index） was developed and used to assess the vulnerability of the coastline of the Kingdom of Bahrain main islands to future SLR （sea level rise）. A total of 717 km of the coastline was evaluated. Six spatial factors acting on the coastal area： erosion/accretion patterns （shoreline change）, topography （elevation above mean sea level）, geology, geomorphology, slope, and mean sea level rise were incorporated and ranked to develop the CVI. This index was classified into four levels of vulnerability： low, moderate, high, and very high. Vulnerable hotspots are located along the central portions of the western and eastern coastlines. The vulnerability of these areas is mostly driven by their characteristically shallow coastal slopes, low elevations, and erosion-prone nature of the sandy soils presents, comprising about 54 km of the studied shoreline. Another 33 km of coastline were classified as highly vulnerable and located along the eastern coast. In addition, the western coast of the southern tip of the main island （Bahrain） was also classified as a highly vulnerable shoreline. Twenty-two km was classified as the moderate vulnerable. The remaining coastal areas were classified as low to moderately vulnerable comprising about 608 km of the total length of the coastline. Identifying those hotspots susceptible to SLR is essential for more effective coastal zone management and to help in reducing the impacts of SLR on both infrastructure and human beings.

The Assessment of Groundwater Vulnerability Due to Leaching of Chemicals: The Review of Attenuation Factor

To assess the groundwater vulnerability due to leaching of chemicals, the groundwater system in the unsaturated zone is characterized by conceptual models that are further extended and refined with more detailed mathematical models to understand the governing physical processes in detail. However, due to lack of data and uncertainty level, an intermediate transition through index based models is researched. The attenuation factor (AF) approach, which works under the assumption that the chemicals degrade following a first-order kinetics and determines the fraction of the chemicals that goes to groundwater table, is one of the index based models that has been widely used due to its simplicity. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to review the research works done using the AF approach, to outline the future research needs. Furthermore, the mathematical implementation of the AF approach and the associated uncertainty levels is explained through an example and MATLAB source code.

Measuring Capacity for Resilience among Coastal Counties of the U. S. Northern Gulf of Mexico Region

Many have voiced concern about the long-term survival of coastal communities in the face of increasingly intense storms and sea level rise. In this study we select indicators of key theoretical concepts from the social-ecological resilience literature, aggregate those indicators into a resilience-capacity index, and calculate an index score for each of the 52 coastal counties of Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida. Building upon Cutter’s Social Vulnerability Index work [1], we use Factor Analysis to combine 43 variables measuring demographics, social capital, economic re- sources, local government actions, and environmental conditions within the counties. Then, we map the counties’ scores to show the spatial distribution of resilience capacities. The counties identified as having the highest resilience capaci- ties include the suburban areas near New Orleans, Louisiana and Tampa, Florida, and the growing beach-tourist com- munities of Alabama and central Florida. Also, we examine whether those counties more active in oil and gas develop- ment and production, part of the region’s “energy coast”, have greater capacity for resilience than other counties in the region. Correlation analyses between the resilience-capacity index scores and two measures of oil and gas industry ac- tivity (total employment and number of business establishments within five industry categories) yielded no statistically significant associations. By aggregating a range of important contextual variables into a single index, the study demonstrates a useful approach for the more systematic examination and comparison of exposure, vulnerability and capacity for resilience among coastal communities.

Fragility Curves of Existing RC Buildings Based on Specific Structural Performance Levels

In seismic risk mitigation policies, fragility functions of existing buildings play a fundamental role. In this paper, a procedure to develop analytical fragility curves for Moment Resisting Frame Reinforced Concrete buildings is presented. The design of the selected building typologies was performed according to the codes at the time of construction using force-based methods and the state of the practice at the time of construction. A total of 216 building classes were defined, considering different ages, number of storeys, infill panels, plan dimensions, beam stiffness, and concrete strength. The investigated buildings can be considered low-engineered buildings, using no seismic codes or old seismic codes. The seismic capacity of the selected models representing the existing RC buildings has been evaluated through non-linear dynamic simulations. Seismic response has been analyzed, considering various peak and integral intensity measures and various response parameters, such as ductility demands and Interstorey Drift Ratio (IDR). A new relationship among structural performance, damage levels and interstorey drift ratios for each studied type is introduced, which is calibrated using the damage levels described in EMS98. It is important to highlight that in this study, different thresholds of IDR have been associated with different typologies, considering their different ductility member levels after their different structural responses. Fragility Curves (FCs) for the studied structural types are set up, developed and discussed.

Seismic vulnerability assessment of urban buildings and traffic networks using fuzzy ordered weighted average

Urban buildings and urban traffic network are considered as the vital arteries of cities which have particular effects especially after the crisis in the search and rescue operations. The aim of this study is to determine the vulnerability of urban areas especially, buildings and traffic networks using multicriteria geographic information systems and decisionmaking methods. As there are many effective criteria on the seismic vulnerability that they have uncertain and vague properties, the method of this paper is applying fuzzy ordered weighted average(OWA) to model the seismic vulnerability of urban buildings and traffic networks in the most optimistic and pessimistic states. The study area is district 6 of Tehran that is affected by the four major faults, and thus will be threatened by the earthquakes. The achieved results illustrated the vulnerability with different degrees of risk levels including very high, high, medium, low and very low. The results show that in the most optimistic case 14% and in the pessimistic case 1% of buildings tolerate in very low vulnerability. The vulnerability of urban street network also indicates that in the optimistic case 12% and in the pessimistic case at most 9% of the area are in appropriate condition and the North and NorthEast of the study area are more vulnerable than South of it.

Erosion Vulnerability Assessment of Sperchios River Basin, in East Central Greece—A GIS Based Analysis

One of the most important natural processes, with significant environmental impacts, is soil erosion. The aim of this paper is to evaluate and assess the erosion vulnerability of the geological formations constituting Sperchios River basin, in Eastern Central Greece, as well as to distinguish and locate the areas of such risk and estimate it. The developed methodology in this paper is based on Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE), with the implementation of Weighted Cartographic Overlay (WCO) technique in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) environment. By applying this method, an attempt was made to combine a set of factors, such as geological-hydrogeological characteristics, morphological slopes and hydrographic texture (causative factors of the phenomenon) along with rainfall (triggering factor) and land cover/use (competitive factor). The weighted combination of these factors defines the vulnerability of the formations in the area of interest. The main results of the methodology are two thematic maps of erosion vulnerability of Sperchios basin’s formations, one that does not include land use/cover factor and one with current existing conditions of the basin (co-evaluating land use/cover). In the first case, 36% of the basin surface undergoes high erosion vulnerability, while 53% present medium vulnerability. These percentages reduced significantly in the second case (3% is the high erosion vulnerability category and 38% the medium one), fact that proves the importance of vegetation in erosion restriction and protection of the geological formations consisting the Sperchios River basin.

Bicycle Level of Service Evaluation Method for Urban Road Segment

As a sustainable mode of transportation, bicycles significantly improve daily mobility. In order to provide theoretics support for improvement of the bicycling environment, this paper proposed bicycle level of service (BLOS) evaluation method for urban road segment according to cyclists’ perception. First, influence factors of BLOS were identified from aspects of road facility, traffic characteristics, and environmental condition. Second, bicycling videos were recorded and a satisfaction survey was conducted. Four BLOS evaluation models for different separation facilities were established. Last, bicycling behavioral stages of travelers were divided based on the transtheoretical model. A new BLOS classification criterion was proposed according to travelers’ demand of different stages.

Criteria and Considerations in Software Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (SFMEA)

For the issue that software FMEA's methods are improper and practices are not standard,this article for system-level SFMEA and detail-level SFMEA,cleared the work targets,proposed the criteria about general procedure and detail-level analysis,and the considerations in project management and specific steps,by which SFMEA became specific,standard and engineered.

Interactive Fuzzy Programming for Random Fuzzy Two-Level Integer Programming Problems through Fractile Criteria with Possibility

This paper considers two-level integer programming problems involving random fuzzy variables with cooperative behavior of the decision makers. Considering the probabilities that the decision makers’ objective function values are smaller than or equal to target variables, fuzzy goals of the decision makers are introduced. Using the fractile criteria to optimize the target variables under the condition that the degrees of possibility with respect to the attained probabilities are greater than or equal to certain permissible levels, the original random fuzzy two-level integer programming problems are reduced to deterministic ones. Through the introduction of genetic algorithms with double strings for nonlinear integer programming problems, interactive fuzzy programming to derive a satisfactory solution for the decision maker at the upper level in consideration of the cooperative relation between decision makers is presented. An illustrative numerical example demonstrates the feasibility and efficiency of the proposed method.

Potential Vulnerability of Encrypted Messages: Decomposability of Discrete Logarithm Problems

This paper provides a framework that reduces the computational complexity of the discrete logarithm problem. The paper describes how to decompose the initial DLP onto several DLPs of smaller dimensions. Decomposability of the DLP is an indicator of potential vulnerability of encrypted messages transmitted via open channels of the Internet or within corporate networks. Several numerical examples illustrate the frame- work and show its computational efficiency.

Adaptation strategy for sea level rise in vulnerable areasalong China's coast

It can be seen from the calculation that the vulnerable area along China's coast in which the elevation is less than 5 m, is 143 900 km2, accounting for about 11. 3% of the total area of the 11 coastal provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions. These areas are threatened to varying extent by sea level rise. According to prediction, the relative sea level rise (including global sea level rise caused by climate change and local relative as level rise caused by vertical crust movement and ground subsidence) along China's coast will be 4～16 cm by the year 2030 with the optimum estimated value of 6～14cm. It will be 9～26 cm by the year 2050 with the optimum estimated value of 12-23 cm. And it will be 31-74 cm by the year 2100 with the optimum estimated value of 47～65 cm. The calcuation result shows that the percentage of the cost for up-grading (heightening and consolidating) sea dykes/walls in adaptation strategy in the losses of submerged areas varies from area to area: 6. 9% in the Zhujiang (Pearl) River Deta, 1. 3% ～24. 6% in the Changjiang (Yangtze) River Delta, and 0. 9%～2. 0% in the Huanghe River Delta.

Recent Extremes of Drought and Flooding in Amazonia: Vulnerabilities and Human Adaptation

The present study focuses on the impacts of extreme drought and flooding situations in Amazonia, using level/discharge data from some rivers in the Amazon region as indicators of impacts. The last 10 years have featured various “once in a century” droughts and floods in the Amazon basin, which have affected human and natural systems in the region. We assess a history of such hazards based on river data, and discuss some of the observed impacts in terms of vulnerability of human and natural systems, as well as some of adaptation strategies implemented by regional and local governments to cope with them. A critical perspective of mitigation of drought and flood policies in Amazonia suggests that they have been mostly ineffective in reducing vulnerability for the majority of the population, constituting, perhaps, examples of maladaptation via the undermining of resilience.

Evaluating Watershed Vulnerability in Bernalillo County, New Mexico Using Expert Testimony, Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, and GIS

Geographic Information System (GIS) software was used to create a watershed vulnerability model for Bernalillo County, New Mexico. Watershed vulnerability was investigated as a function of soil erosion and infiltration criteria: precipitation, land slope, soil erodibility (K-factor), vegetation cover (NDVI), land use, drainage density, saturated hydraulic conductivity, and hydrologic soil group. Respective criteria weights were derived using a Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) supported by expert opinion. A survey of 10 experts, representing New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology (NMT), the New Mexico Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources (NMBGMR), and the United States Geologic Survey (USGS), provided model input data for an integrated pair-wise comparison matrix for soil erosion and for infiltration. Individual criteria weights were determined by decomposing the respective fuzzy synthetic extent matrix using the centroid method. GIS layers were then combined based on criteria weights to produce maps of soil erosion potential and infiltration potential. A composite watershed vulnerability map was generated by equal weighting of each input map. Model results were categorized into five vulnerability categories: not vulnerable (N), slightly vulnerable (SV), moderately vulnerable (MV), highly vulnerable (HV), and extremely vulnerable (EV). The resulting FAHP/GIS model was used to generate a watershed vulnerability map of discrete areas in Bernalillo County, which may be vulnerable to stormwater run-off events and soil erosion. Such high volume run-off events can cause erosion damage to property and infrastructure. Alternatively, in areas near urban development, stormwater run-off may contribute non-point-source pollutant contamination of New Mexico’s surface water resources. The most problematic areas in Bernalillo County are present in the Eastern and Northwestern portions. However, less than 1% of the total area lies within the lowest and highest vulnerability categories with the majority centered around moderate vulnerability. The results of the model were compared with a previously published crisp AHP method. Both methods showed similar regional vulnerability trends. This MCDS/GIS approach is intended to provide support to local governments and decision makers in selection of suitable structural or nonstructural stormwater control measures.

An Integrated Framework to Analyze Local Decision Making and Adaptation to Sea Level Rise in Coastal Regions in Selsey (UK), Broward County (USA), and Santos (Brazil)

One of the clear signals of the ongoing climate change is sea level rise (SLR). Normal oceanic tides superimposed on a rising sea level and coastal flooding will affect many coastal communities. An international collaboration among Brazil, the United Kingdom, and the United States was designed to evaluate local decision making processes and to open space for local urban managers to reflect on possible actions toward adaption to sea level rise given the historical constraints imposed by administrative and institutional structures. This project focused on the processes that shape adaptation of three coastal communities in three countries. It worked jointly with these communities in defining the problem, examining risks, and understanding the benefits and obstacles that may hinder implementation of adaptation options. The framework was co-designed by an interdisciplinary team that incorporated social and natural scientists from the three countries, including local government officials. The study addressed 1) evaluation of adaptive capacity through participant surveys and 2) physical and cost impact simulations using geospatial models of the built infrastructure and implementation of adaptation options under different hazard scenarios, including 50 and 100-year sea level rise projections and severe storms. Based on the surveys’ results, there is a clear sense of the awareness of each community of the risk of floods due to intense storms, and of the usefulness of engaging early in a process that promotes the understanding of risks, impacts, and costs. A majority of workshop participants prioritized pursuing physical and green infrastructure actions now or within coming years or decades. A positive common aspect of the three sites was the commitment shown by the stakeholders in taking part in the process and evaluating which adaptation measures could be more effective in their cities. While in the US and UK structural solutions and voluntary buyouts were prioritized for the future, Brazil prioritized structural solutions and ecosystems restoration and not voluntary buyouts. All of these are choices to increase resiliency against sea level rise that have a high benefit-cost ratio. The Adaptive Capacity Index (ACI) results illustrate barriers to adaptation action, including technical, economic and political issues that reveal inequalities in adaptive capacity among case studies.