The Application of Scenario Analysis in the Overall Planning of Land Use:A Case Study of Shangluo City in Shaanxi Province

The overall planning of land use is a complex process of joint action of social system, natural and economic conditions. On the basis of summarizing the existing researches, we select Shaanxi's Shangluo City, located in the Qinba mountainous area as the study object, to expound the concept and steps of scenario analysis based on land use change data, under the guidance of ecological safety and sustainable development theory. We design four different scenarios of land use planning program in Shangluo City during the period 2006-2020, and use grey linear programming model to analyze each scenario. The results show that the scenario analysis is feasible in the adjustment of land use structure in Shangluo City; operable in the determining of land use planning program on a macro-municipal scale.

Analyzing the Urban Hierarchical Structure Based on Multiple Indicators of Economy and Industry: An Econometric Study in China

For a city,analyzing its advantages,disadvantages and the level of economic development in a country is important,especially for the cities in China developing at flying speed.The corresponding literatures for the cities in China have not considered the indicators of economy and industry in detail.In this paper,based on multiple indicators of economy and industry,the urban hierarchical structure of 285 cities above the prefecture level in China is investigated.The indicators from the economy,industry,infrastructure,medical care,population,education,culture,and employment levels are selected to establish a new indicator system for analyzing urban hierarchical structure.The factor analysis method is used to investigate the relationship between the variables of selected indicators and obtain the score of each common factor and comprehensive scores and rankings for 285 cities above the prefecture level in China.According to the comprehensive scores,285 cities above the prefecture level are clustered into 15 levels by using K-means clustering algorithm.Then,the hierarchical structure system of the cities above the prefecture level in China is obtained and corresponding policy implications are proposed.The results and implications can not only be applied to the urban planning and development in China but also offer a reference on other developing countries.The methodologies used in this paper can also be applied to study the urban hierarchical structure in other countries.

Life cycle assessment as a prospective tool for sustainable agriculture and food planning at a local level

Owing to the far-reaching environmental consequences of agriculture and food systems,such as their contribution to climate change,there is an urgent need to reduce their impact.International and national governments set sustainability targets and implement corresponding measures.Nevertheless,critics of the globalized system claim that a territorial administrative scale is better suited to address sustainability issues.Yet,at the subnational level,local authorities rarely apply a systemic environmental assessment to enhance their action plans.This paper employs a territorial life cycle assessment methodology to improve local environmental agri-food planning.The objective is to identify significant direct and indirect environmental hotspots,their origins,and formulate effective mitigation strategies.The methodology is applied to the administrative department of Finistere,a strategic agricultural region in North-Western France.Multiple environmental criteria including climate change,fossil resource scarcity,toxicity,and land use are modeled.The findings reveal that the primary environmental hotspots of the studied local food system arise from indirect sources,such as livestock feed or diesel consumption.Livestock reduction and organic farming conversion emerge as the most environmentally efficient strategies,resulting in a 25%decrease in the climate change indicator.However,the overall modeled impact reduction is insufficient following national objectives and remains limited for the land use indicator.These results highlight the innovative application of life cycle assessment led at a local level,offering insights for the further advancement of systematic and prospective local agri-food assessment.Additionally,they provide guidance for local authorities to enhance the sustainability of planning strategies.

Analysis of Renewable Energy Utilization Potential in Buildings of China

As a country of great population, China has increasing building energy consumption continuously. It not only threatens the lack of total energy but also hardens the progress of protecting environment. Therefore, it forces the country to accelerate finding substitution application of conventional energy in building, renewable energy building utilization. In base of 2010, this study explores the potential of the renewable energy building utilization by using energy consumption analysis until 2030 and predicts annual alternative quantity of renewable energy in different situations.

The effect of forced oscillations on the kinetics of wave drift in an inhomogeneous plasma

The kinetics is analyzed of the drift of non-potential plasma waves in spatial positions and wavevectors due to plasma's spatial inhomogeneity. The analysis is based on highly informative kinetic scenarios of the drift of electromagnetic waves in a cold ionized plasma in the absence of a magnetic field(Erofeev 2015 Phys. Plasmas 22 092302) and the drift of long Langmuir waves in a cold magnetized plasma(Erofeev 2019 J. Plasma Phys. 85 905850104). It is shown that the traditional concept of the wave kinetic equation does not account for the effects of the forced plasma oscillations that are excited when the waves propagate in an inhomogeneous plasma.Terms are highlighted that account for these oscillations in the kinetic equations of the abovementioned highly informative wave drift scenarios.

A Scenario-Based Robust Transmission Network Expansion Planning Method for Consideration of Wind Power Uncertainties

This paper uses a novel scenario generation method for tackling the uncertainties of wind power in the transmission network expansion planning(TNEP)problem.A heuristic moment matching(HMM)method is first applied to generate the typical scenarios for capturing the stochastic features of wind power,including expectation,standard deviation,skewness,kurtosis,and correlation of multiple wind farms.Then,based on the typical scenarios,a robust TNEP problem is presented and formulated.The solution of the problem is robust against all the scenarios that represent the stochastic features of wind power.Three test systems are used to verify the HMM method and is compared against Taguchi’s Orthogonal Array(OA)method.The simulation results show that the HMM method has better performance than the OA method in terms of the trade-off between robustness and economy.Additionally,the main factors influencing the planning scheme are studied,including the number of scenarios,wind farm capacity,and penalty factors,which provide a reference for system operators choosing parameters.

Construction and Application of Combined Evaluation Model of Regional Water Quality Plan

[Objective] The aim was to study the construction and application of combined evaluation model of regional water quality plan. [Meth- od] By dint of layer analysis, subjective and objective model of entropy evaluation, the water quality plan in Jinghe was evaluated. Combined evalu- ation model based on information entropy were constructed, and considering the single model evaluation result, the optimal water quality plan was selected. [ Result] The combination weight result suggested that COD amount was the most essential indicator in water quality plan and embodied the importance of water environment protection, which met basic objective of environment protection and social, economic effects. Combined evalu- ation indicated that in the sixteen plans, plan 16 was of highest comprehensive evaluation value, and can be considered as optimum water quality plan. [ Conclusion] Combined evaluation model can effectively list the advantages of each evaluation model and improve the dependability of water quality plan, and provided a new research idea for the optimal evaluation of water pollution control plan.

Location Evaluation of Childcare Facilities Focusing on Transportation in Japanese Urban Areas

In recent Japan, as there has been an increase of dual-income households and the demand for childcare facilities has especially increased especially in urban areas, childcare facilities and workers are lacking and it leads to the serious issue of children on waiting lists. Based on the background mentioned above, using statistical method, geographical information system (GIS) and public open data, scenario analysis to select transportation, the present study aimed to propose a method to quantitatively evaluate the current location of childcare facilities in Japanese urban areas. In the present study, the model of the p-median problem used to obtain the optimal location of facilities was modified, and a method to evaluate the current situation concerning the shortage or overage of childcare facilities by district was proposed. As evaluations are conducted using quantitative data such as the specialization coefficient of person trip for transportation and the distance between childcare facilities and districts, the evaluation results are also quantitative, making it an effective indicator for evaluating the locations of childcare facilities. Additionally, the specialization coefficient of person trip for transportation and the distance between childcare facilities and districts were calculated based on public open data. Therefore, the evaluation method in the present study has a high temporal reproducibility as well as spatial reproducibility.

高水平专业群建设产出绩效评价指标体系构建研究

高水平专业群建设绩效评价既是衡量“双高”建设成效的必然要求,也是促进高职院校内涵式发展的迫切需要,还是下一轮双高计划建设单位遴选的重要举措。依据教育部和财政部相关文件,提出了高水平专业群建设绩效评价体系框架。在对产出指标选用原则分析的基础上,选出了9个二级指标下的备选三级指标;运用DEMATEL分析法,对备选三级指标进行优化,确定了产出指标下的评价体系和权重。通过高水平专业群建设绩效评价体系的构建,引导专业群建设方向始终指向“双高计划”总体目标,有效提升专业群的人才培养质量与服务能力。

考虑不确定性的配电网-多综合能源系统分布式协同规划

综合能源系统的多点并网加剧了配电网规划的“维数灾害”,提出兼顾多主体利益均衡性和分析计算高效性的配电网-多综合能源系统的分布式协同规划方法。以区间数刻画系统内的源-荷不确定性,构建计及多利益主体的配电网-多综合能源系统分布式协同规划框架;考虑多源联供的低碳清洁性、综合能源系统对配电网的支撑性和多能互补性,建立考虑奖惩碳交易机制的配电网-多综合能源系统双层规划模型;采用基于最大变差分析的目标级联分析法求解含有区间不确定性和多主体耦合性的规划模型。仿真结果表明,所提方法有效降低了配电网耦合综合能源系统的复杂度,提升了系统内各利益主体的均衡性。

不同去柱工况下多层钢框架结构抗连续倒塌机理研究

为探究不同去柱工况对多层钢框架结构抗连续倒塌性能影响,分别对中柱失效和角柱失效工况的2层2跨钢框架梁-柱子结构进行Pushdown加载试验,研究其在倒塌过程中的抗力曲线和破坏模式。试验结果表明:中柱失效下钢框架主要依靠弯曲机制和悬链线机制抵抗外加荷载,且悬链线机制具有一定的滞后性;而角柱失效下钢框架主要依靠弯曲机制抵抗倒塌,且由于空腹效应的存在,可以有效提高结构的抗倒塌承载力。随后通过有限元软件ANSYS/LS-DYNA对所研究试件进行数值模拟,并对现实场景中可能出现的6种去柱工况分别进行抗连续倒塌分析。通过对比6种去柱工况钢框架结构的抗力曲线和抗倒塌风险可知:不同去柱工况下的钢框架结构水平约束条件不同,从而空腹效应发展也不尽相同;考虑空腹效应并考虑单位面积结构的承载力时,邻角柱失效与邻边柱失效工况下的钢框架结构具有较高的倒塌风险。

考虑城市中央商务区规划阶段负荷不确定性的综合能源系统供能结构研究

在考虑机组最小负载率的基础上建立了各机组的约束条件,分别以经济性和环保性为目标构建了优化模型,研究了负荷不确定性对系统供能结构的影响。从概率的角度对规划阶段建筑群的负荷不确定性进行了描述,并应用场景分析法将已知概率分布的随机问题转化为便于求解计算的确定性问题。考虑负荷不确定性后,系统总的容量增大7%,运行费用增加2%,系统年总投资增加4%。对比经济性与环保性目标优化结果,分析了系统运行和供能结构配置产生差异的原因。

情景分析在城市低碳交通规划中的应用及启示——以波士顿、伦敦、纽约为例

随着我国城市化进程加快,交通部门成为城市碳排放增长速度最快的部门。“双碳”目标下,交通部门急需采取情景分析等灵活的规划方法应对未知的复杂前景。文章首先阐述了情景分析的过程及步骤,涵盖了构建情景、开展情景分析、评估与选择情景及确定首选情景;其次以波士顿、伦敦、纽约为例,探讨了情景分析在国外城市低碳交通规划中的应用;最后总结国外实践经验,提出指导我国城市情景分析及低碳交通规划的实践启示,对我国城市低碳交通规划实践具有一定的借鉴意义。

平粮机械臂设计及运动学分析

针对传统人工平粮作业方式费时费力、存在安全隐患等问题,面向现有履带式、桁架式平粮装备及方法作业空间大、效率低、能耗高等缺点,设计一款七自由度的机械臂以实现高大平房仓内粮面的自动平整。机械臂各个关节主要由数字液压缸驱动,选择MCU对各个关节数字液压缸进行控制,同时建立该机械臂的标准D-H参数表,通过MATLAB Robotics Toolbox建立机械臂三维仿真模型,采用几何法和基于物体雅可比的Newton-Raphson算法对其机械臂进行逆运动学求解,并通过蒙特卡洛法对工作空间进行仿真分析,利用五次多项式插值和T型插值对其运动轨迹进行仿真,利用RRT*算法进行避障路径规划。结果表明:该机械臂工作空间可覆盖平房仓内待平粮位置,运动轨迹平稳可靠,满足所需工作要求,T型插值法可以使机械臂运动轨迹在4~6 s之间,关节加速度降低至0 rad/s,RRT*算法可使机械臂精确避开高度在4~8 m范围内无需作业的粮堆。可为高大平房仓伸入式平粮装备研制和智能控制平台搭建提供基础支撑。

基于Matlab的码垛机械臂建模与仿真实验分析

论文以5自由度码垛机械臂为例,通过标准D-H法,构建机械臂各关节坐标系,分析推导其运动学方程。利用Matlab中的机器人工具箱对其运动学方程进行验证,求解其工作空间,采用五次多项式对各关节进行轨迹规划。通过对机械臂的结构进行调试模拟,验证了其结构的合理性,连杆参数正确,各关节曲线光滑且连续,能够正确分拣和码垛快递,在运动过程中无冲击,明显抖动现象,能够应用于生产实践中。

分布式光伏配电网多级无功联动协调优化

分布式光伏电源并入配电网规模逐渐扩大,致使配电网典型故障发生概率急剧攀升,影响配电网运行的稳定性,提出分布式光伏配电网多级无功联动协调优化方法研究。深入分析分布式光伏电源特性,结合分布式光伏配电网实际情况,将分布式光伏配电网划分为多级规划形式,构建多级无功联动协调优化模型,并确定相应的约束条件,引入交替求解策略制定模型求解程序,模型求解结果即为最佳无功协调优化方案。实验结果显示,在不同典型故障条件下(节点电压幅值最高、节点电压幅值最低与分布式光伏存在无功出力),应用所提方法可以将节点电压控制在稳定范围内,充分证实了所提方法无功协调优化效果更好。

基于STIRPAT改进模型的油气开采业碳排放研究

能源安全及双碳战略下,我国坚定不移推进稳油增气,原油产量力争保持在2×10^(8)t/a,天然气产量逐步增加至3000×10^(8)m^(3)/a左右。2020年我国油气开采业能源利用CO_(2)排放量已达8758×10^(4)t,“双碳”目标约束下面临较大的减排压力。基于2010—2020年我国油气开采业相关历史数据,充分考虑油气开采业特点,引入行业能源消费、固定资产投入、油气产出相关8个指标参数,构建改进型STIRPAT模型并结合岭回归分析方法,分析各影响因素与碳排放量的关系。能源消费碳强度、能源消费规模、油气产出碳强度、产出规模对碳排放促进作用明显,投资效率则起到抑制作用。结合关键影响因素分析结果,并充分考虑绿色转型、稳油增气等能源安全新战略,采用情景分析法对4种不同情景下的油开采业未来碳排放量、碳达峰量、碳达峰时间进行分析预测;通过大力开发利用新能源,加大节能降耗力度,油气开采业有望在2030年实现碳达峰,峰值排放水平约9015×10^(4)t/a,符合行业碳达峰发展规划。最后,建议油气开采业因地制宜积极投资开发新能源,大力实施节能和化石能源替代工程,不断提高投资效率,降低投资和产出碳强度,确保碳达峰目标如期实现。

一种反舰导弹打击下补给船目标的易损性分析方法

[目的]针对目前在舰船目标易损性分析方法研究方面的迫切需求,提出一种反舰导弹打击下补给船目标的易损性分析方法。[方法]以某典型补给船为攻击目标,选择反舰导弹作为攻击武器,分析目标的构效关系。通过数值模拟得到反舰导弹内爆载荷作用下补给船的动态响应,研究反舰导弹内爆载荷作用下关键部件的毁伤破坏及毁伤判据,得到补给船功能的毁伤程度。对补给船目标易损性进行分析,判断使其航行功能造成最大程度毁伤的攻击方法。[结果]形成了从目标构效关系分析、关键部件毁伤模式、毁伤准则与判据,到目标功能毁伤程度的易损性分析方法的流程。根据目标易损性分布信息,得出瞄准非冗余部件集中的位置进行打击可起到最强的攻击效果。[结论]可为舰船目标易损性的研究提供技术支撑,辅助决策火力筹划。

碳达峰目标下我国碳排放配额地区分配研究

本文基于扩展的STIRPAT模型,结合情景分析法预测2030年碳达峰情景下我国碳排放配额总量。依据公平性、效率性、可行性、可持续性的原则,从减排能力、减排压力、减排潜力和减排责任四个维度来构建碳排放配额地区分配指标体系,利用改进熵权法确定各省(区、市)碳配额分配权重,然后将碳达峰情境下碳排放配额总量在我国30个省(区、市)进行分配,并分析各省(区、市)未来碳排放空间。结果表明:①我国仅在低速发展情景下可能实现“以较低峰值在2030年碳达峰、2060年碳中和”的战略目标;②综合分配原则下,北京、上海、天津、海南和重庆等地配额较多,内蒙古、陕西、河北、山东和山西等地配额较少;③全国未来碳排放空间略有盈余,其中山东、山西、河北、内蒙古等省(区)碳排放赤字严重,海南、北京、重庆、天津等地碳排放空间存在较大盈余。

城市多中心结构下的土地使用多情景发展布局

城市多中心结构和距离主中心、次中心的区位是影响土地使用演变的重要因素。随着多中心结构成为城市空间重要发展战略,相对于城市主中心,距离就业次中心的区位因素需要在土地使用变化模拟中加以考虑。以上海市为例,通过土地使用模拟探讨城市多中心空间结构对土地使用演变的影响。通过手机位置数据识别就业次中心,分析就业次中心对土地使用演变的影响。研究发现,除了交通、社会经济、距离城市主中心的区位等因素,距离就业次中心的区位也是影响土地使用演变的重要因素。根据识别的就业次中心替换历史年份的就业次中心,对未来土地使用进行推演,发现就业次中心会带来周边商业用地的集聚。同时,将相对于城市主中心、就业次中心的区位因素纳入土地使用推演考虑,研究城市多中心结构对土地使用演变的影响,对于城市多中心结构优化及用地发展布局规划具有重要意义。