Accurate classification and prediction of future traffic conditions are essential for developing effective strategies for congestion mitigation on the highway systems. Speed distribution is one of the traffic stream p...Accurate classification and prediction of future traffic conditions are essential for developing effective strategies for congestion mitigation on the highway systems. Speed distribution is one of the traffic stream parameters, which has been used to quantify the traffic conditions. Previous studies have shown that multi-modal probability distribution of speeds gives excellent results when simultaneously evaluating congested and free-flow traffic conditions. However, most of these previous analytical studies do not incorporate the influencing factors in characterizing these conditions. This study evaluates the impact of traffic occupancy on the multi-state speed distribution using the Bayesian Dirichlet Process Mixtures of Generalized Linear Models (DPM-GLM). Further, the study estimates the speed cut-point values of traffic states, which separate them into homogeneous groups using Bayesian change-point detection (BCD) technique. The study used 2015 archived one-year traffic data collected on Florida’s Interstate 295 freeway corridor. Information criteria results revealed three traffic states, which were identified as free-flow, transitional flow condition (congestion onset/offset), and the congested condition. The findings of the DPM-GLM indicated that in all estimated states, the traffic speed decreases when traffic occupancy increases. Comparison of the influence of traffic occupancy between traffic states showed that traffic occupancy has more impact on the free-flow and the congested state than on the transitional flow condition. With respect to estimating the threshold speed value, the results of the BCD model revealed promising findings in characterizing levels of traffic congestion.展开更多
Long-term seismic activity prior to the December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, MW=9.0 earthquake was investigated using the Harvard CMT catalogue. It is observed that before this great e...Long-term seismic activity prior to the December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, MW=9.0 earthquake was investigated using the Harvard CMT catalogue. It is observed that before this great earth-quake, there exists an accelerating moment release (AMR) process with the temporal scale of a quarter century and the spatial scale of 1 500 km. Within this spatial range, the MW=9.0 event falls into the piece-wise power-law-like frequency-magnitude distribution. Therefore, in the perspective of the critical-point-like model of earthquake preparation, the failure to forecast/predict the approaching and/or the size of this earthquake is not due to the physically intrinsic unpredictability of earthquakes.展开更多
The geologic conditions of superimposed basins in China are very complicated. This is mainly shown by multi-phase structural evolution, multiple sets of source-reservoir-cap rock combinations, multiple stages of hydro...The geologic conditions of superimposed basins in China are very complicated. This is mainly shown by multi-phase structural evolution, multiple sets of source-reservoir-cap rock combinations, multiple stages of hydrocarbon generation and expulsion from source rocks, multi-cycle hydrocarbon enrichment and accumulation, and multi-phase reservoir adjustment and reconstruction. The enrichment, accumulation and distribution of hydrocarbon is mainly controlled by the source rock kitchen, paleo- anticline, regional cap rock and intensity of tectonic movement. In this paper, the T-BCMS model has been developed to predict favorable areas of hydrocarbon accumulation in complicated superimposed basins according to time and spatial relationships among five key factors. The five factors include unconformity surface representing tectonic balancing (B), regional cap rock representing hydrocarbon protection (C), paleo-anticline representing hydrocarbon migration and accumulation (M), source rock kitchen representing hydrocarbon generation and expulsion (S) and geological time (T). There are three necessary conditions to form favorable areas of hydrocarbon accumulation. First, four key factors BCMS should be strictly in the order of BCMS from top to bottom. Second, superimposition of four key factors BCMS in the same area is the most favorable for hydrocarbon accumulation. Third, vertically ordered combination and superimposition in the same area of BCMS should occur at the same geological time. The model has been used to predict the most favorable exploration areas in Ordovician in the Tarim Basin in the main hydrocarbon accumulation periods. The result shows that 95% of the discovered Ordovician hydrocarbon reservoirs are located in the predicted areas, which indicates the feasibility and reliability of the key factor matching T-BCMS model for hydrocarbon accumulation and enrichment.展开更多
The SWAT model was applied to analyze the temporal-spatial distribution patterns of non-point source pollution loads and the difference of pollution loads of different land use types in Xixi Watershed of Jinjiang Basi...The SWAT model was applied to analyze the temporal-spatial distribution patterns of non-point source pollution loads and the difference of pollution loads of different land use types in Xixi Watershed of Jinjiang Basin. The results showed that both yearly nitrogen and phosphorus pollution loads were evenly distributed during 1973 to 1979,the annual TN pollution from non-point source was 1530 t,or 6. 3 kg / ha,and the annual TP pollution from non-point source was 270 t,or 1. 1 kg / ha during 1973 to 1979 in the watershed. Considerable differences were identified on both monthly nitrogen and phosphorus pollution loads. The TN and TP pollution loads during the flood season( from April to September) accounted for 76. 2% and 75. 8% of the annual load respectively. There were great differences in both TN and TP pollution loads of different land use types in the study area,and the pollution load of both farmland and orchard was higher than that of the other land use types. TN and TP pollution loads of farmland accounted for 66% and 83% of total watershed. There was a great spatial difference in the nonpoint source pollution load of the study area. The critical source areas of non-point source pollution are mainly located at Guanqiao Town,Longmen Town,Changkeng Town,Shangqing Town and Dapu Town,where the efforts of controlling pollution should be made.展开更多
The fragment angular distributions of fusion-fission reactions for the systemsof <sup>16</sup>O+<sup>232</sup>Th,<sup>19</sup>F+<sup>232</sup>Th and <sup>16</su...The fragment angular distributions of fusion-fission reactions for the systemsof <sup>16</sup>O+<sup>232</sup>Th,<sup>19</sup>F+<sup>232</sup>Th and <sup>16</sup>O+<sup>238</sup>U at near-and sub-barrier energies were measured.The measured fragment anisotropies obviously deviate from the predictions ofscission-point transition-state model.We also compared the excitation energy of tiltingmode with the statistical assumption.It was found that thermal equilibrium is not estab-lished at scission for the reactions studied.展开更多
Concave clouds will cause miscalculation by the power prediction model based on cloud features for distributed photovoltaic( PV) plant. The algorithm for decomposing concave cloud into convex images is proposed. Adopt...Concave clouds will cause miscalculation by the power prediction model based on cloud features for distributed photovoltaic( PV) plant. The algorithm for decomposing concave cloud into convex images is proposed. Adopting minimum polygonal approximation( MPP) to demonstrate the contour of concave cloud,cloud features are described and the subdivision lines of convex decomposition for the concave clouds are determined by the centroid point scattering model and centroid angle function,which realizes the convex decomposition of concave cloud. The result of MATLAB simulation indicates that the proposed algorithm can accurately detect cloud contour corners and recognize the concave points. The proposed decomposition algorithm has advantages of less time complexity and decomposition part numbers compared to traditional algorithms. So the established model can make the convex decomposition of complex concave clouds completely and quickly,which is available for the existing prediction algorithm for the ultra-short-term power output of distributed PV system based on the cloud features.展开更多
柔性互联装置的广泛应用给主动配电网(active distribution network,ADN)规划带来巨大挑战。该文提出一种考虑智能软开关(soft open point,SOP)接入的ADN扩展规划方法,对变电站新建及扩容,线路新建,智能软开关、分布式电源、储能系统以...柔性互联装置的广泛应用给主动配电网(active distribution network,ADN)规划带来巨大挑战。该文提出一种考虑智能软开关(soft open point,SOP)接入的ADN扩展规划方法,对变电站新建及扩容,线路新建,智能软开关、分布式电源、储能系统以及无功补偿等设备的选址定容进行协同规划。首先,考虑分布式电源出力和负荷功率不确定性,采用基于改进高斯混合模型的聚类方法构建典型日场景。在此基础上,以年综合费用最小为目标函数,建立了考虑SOP接入的ADN扩展规划模型。然后,通过线性化和二阶锥松弛技术,将原始非凸非线性规划模型转化为混合整数二阶锥规划(mixed-integer second-order cone programming,MISOCP)模型,并提出逐次收缩凸松弛算法以获得凸松弛间隙足够小的原问题最优解。最后,在54节点主动配电网算例上验证了所提规划模型和求解算法的可行性与有效性。展开更多
文摘Accurate classification and prediction of future traffic conditions are essential for developing effective strategies for congestion mitigation on the highway systems. Speed distribution is one of the traffic stream parameters, which has been used to quantify the traffic conditions. Previous studies have shown that multi-modal probability distribution of speeds gives excellent results when simultaneously evaluating congested and free-flow traffic conditions. However, most of these previous analytical studies do not incorporate the influencing factors in characterizing these conditions. This study evaluates the impact of traffic occupancy on the multi-state speed distribution using the Bayesian Dirichlet Process Mixtures of Generalized Linear Models (DPM-GLM). Further, the study estimates the speed cut-point values of traffic states, which separate them into homogeneous groups using Bayesian change-point detection (BCD) technique. The study used 2015 archived one-year traffic data collected on Florida’s Interstate 295 freeway corridor. Information criteria results revealed three traffic states, which were identified as free-flow, transitional flow condition (congestion onset/offset), and the congested condition. The findings of the DPM-GLM indicated that in all estimated states, the traffic speed decreases when traffic occupancy increases. Comparison of the influence of traffic occupancy between traffic states showed that traffic occupancy has more impact on the free-flow and the congested state than on the transitional flow condition. With respect to estimating the threshold speed value, the results of the BCD model revealed promising findings in characterizing levels of traffic congestion.
基金Ministry of Science and Technology Project (2004CB418406).
文摘Long-term seismic activity prior to the December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, MW=9.0 earthquake was investigated using the Harvard CMT catalogue. It is observed that before this great earth-quake, there exists an accelerating moment release (AMR) process with the temporal scale of a quarter century and the spatial scale of 1 500 km. Within this spatial range, the MW=9.0 event falls into the piece-wise power-law-like frequency-magnitude distribution. Therefore, in the perspective of the critical-point-like model of earthquake preparation, the failure to forecast/predict the approaching and/or the size of this earthquake is not due to the physically intrinsic unpredictability of earthquakes.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program (2006CB202308)
文摘The geologic conditions of superimposed basins in China are very complicated. This is mainly shown by multi-phase structural evolution, multiple sets of source-reservoir-cap rock combinations, multiple stages of hydrocarbon generation and expulsion from source rocks, multi-cycle hydrocarbon enrichment and accumulation, and multi-phase reservoir adjustment and reconstruction. The enrichment, accumulation and distribution of hydrocarbon is mainly controlled by the source rock kitchen, paleo- anticline, regional cap rock and intensity of tectonic movement. In this paper, the T-BCMS model has been developed to predict favorable areas of hydrocarbon accumulation in complicated superimposed basins according to time and spatial relationships among five key factors. The five factors include unconformity surface representing tectonic balancing (B), regional cap rock representing hydrocarbon protection (C), paleo-anticline representing hydrocarbon migration and accumulation (M), source rock kitchen representing hydrocarbon generation and expulsion (S) and geological time (T). There are three necessary conditions to form favorable areas of hydrocarbon accumulation. First, four key factors BCMS should be strictly in the order of BCMS from top to bottom. Second, superimposition of four key factors BCMS in the same area is the most favorable for hydrocarbon accumulation. Third, vertically ordered combination and superimposition in the same area of BCMS should occur at the same geological time. The model has been used to predict the most favorable exploration areas in Ordovician in the Tarim Basin in the main hydrocarbon accumulation periods. The result shows that 95% of the discovered Ordovician hydrocarbon reservoirs are located in the predicted areas, which indicates the feasibility and reliability of the key factor matching T-BCMS model for hydrocarbon accumulation and enrichment.
基金Supported by Key Technology Project of State Administration of Work Safety Supervision for Prevention and Control of Major Safety Accidents in 2015(Shandong-0052-2015AQ)Shandong Natural Science Foundation(ZR20-14EEP009)+1 种基金Binzhou Science and Technology Development Program(2013ZC1001)Research Fund of Binzhou University(BZXYG1414)
文摘The SWAT model was applied to analyze the temporal-spatial distribution patterns of non-point source pollution loads and the difference of pollution loads of different land use types in Xixi Watershed of Jinjiang Basin. The results showed that both yearly nitrogen and phosphorus pollution loads were evenly distributed during 1973 to 1979,the annual TN pollution from non-point source was 1530 t,or 6. 3 kg / ha,and the annual TP pollution from non-point source was 270 t,or 1. 1 kg / ha during 1973 to 1979 in the watershed. Considerable differences were identified on both monthly nitrogen and phosphorus pollution loads. The TN and TP pollution loads during the flood season( from April to September) accounted for 76. 2% and 75. 8% of the annual load respectively. There were great differences in both TN and TP pollution loads of different land use types in the study area,and the pollution load of both farmland and orchard was higher than that of the other land use types. TN and TP pollution loads of farmland accounted for 66% and 83% of total watershed. There was a great spatial difference in the nonpoint source pollution load of the study area. The critical source areas of non-point source pollution are mainly located at Guanqiao Town,Longmen Town,Changkeng Town,Shangqing Town and Dapu Town,where the efforts of controlling pollution should be made.
基金The project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under the contract No.19275067.
文摘The fragment angular distributions of fusion-fission reactions for the systemsof <sup>16</sup>O+<sup>232</sup>Th,<sup>19</sup>F+<sup>232</sup>Th and <sup>16</sup>O+<sup>238</sup>U at near-and sub-barrier energies were measured.The measured fragment anisotropies obviously deviate from the predictions ofscission-point transition-state model.We also compared the excitation energy of tiltingmode with the statistical assumption.It was found that thermal equilibrium is not estab-lished at scission for the reactions studied.
基金Supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Programme of China(No.2013AA050405)Doctoral Fund of Ministry of Education(No.20123317110004)+1 种基金Foundation of Zhejiang Province Key Science and Technology Innovation Team(No.2011R50011)the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province(No.LY15E070004)
文摘Concave clouds will cause miscalculation by the power prediction model based on cloud features for distributed photovoltaic( PV) plant. The algorithm for decomposing concave cloud into convex images is proposed. Adopting minimum polygonal approximation( MPP) to demonstrate the contour of concave cloud,cloud features are described and the subdivision lines of convex decomposition for the concave clouds are determined by the centroid point scattering model and centroid angle function,which realizes the convex decomposition of concave cloud. The result of MATLAB simulation indicates that the proposed algorithm can accurately detect cloud contour corners and recognize the concave points. The proposed decomposition algorithm has advantages of less time complexity and decomposition part numbers compared to traditional algorithms. So the established model can make the convex decomposition of complex concave clouds completely and quickly,which is available for the existing prediction algorithm for the ultra-short-term power output of distributed PV system based on the cloud features.
文摘柔性互联装置的广泛应用给主动配电网(active distribution network,ADN)规划带来巨大挑战。该文提出一种考虑智能软开关(soft open point,SOP)接入的ADN扩展规划方法,对变电站新建及扩容,线路新建,智能软开关、分布式电源、储能系统以及无功补偿等设备的选址定容进行协同规划。首先,考虑分布式电源出力和负荷功率不确定性,采用基于改进高斯混合模型的聚类方法构建典型日场景。在此基础上,以年综合费用最小为目标函数,建立了考虑SOP接入的ADN扩展规划模型。然后,通过线性化和二阶锥松弛技术,将原始非凸非线性规划模型转化为混合整数二阶锥规划(mixed-integer second-order cone programming,MISOCP)模型,并提出逐次收缩凸松弛算法以获得凸松弛间隙足够小的原问题最优解。最后,在54节点主动配电网算例上验证了所提规划模型和求解算法的可行性与有效性。