This paper attempts to explain the "new normal" of China's economic development put forward by XI Jinping, the General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, from three persp...This paper attempts to explain the "new normal" of China's economic development put forward by XI Jinping, the General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, from three perspectives. First, as the new normal is a natural phase of long-term development in the country's renaissance, recognition of it helps policy-making to hold a historical perspective and maintain a patience in the face of growth slowdown. Second, the new normal as the logic of China's economic development underlines the necessity and urgency of transforming growth patterns and growth drivers. Third, different from the "new mediocre" of the world economy, the new normal reveals great potentials of sustainable growth of the Chinese economy that must be tapped through structural reforms.展开更多
Great achievements were made in the 12th Five-Year Plan period （2011-2015） in such areas as economic growth, living standards, industrial restructuring, innovation- driven growth, new-type urbanization and ecologica...Great achievements were made in the 12th Five-Year Plan period （2011-2015） in such areas as economic growth, living standards, industrial restructuring, innovation- driven growth, new-type urbanization and ecological civilization, trade and investment, and reform. These achievements have paved the way for China to enhance the quality and efficiency of growth in the new normal. China＇s future growth prospects are highly correlated with the 13th Five-Year Plan （2016-2020）. For the 13th Five-Year Plan period, China is committed to maintaining an annual growth rate of no less than 6.5%, which is both necessary for China to build an all-round, well-off society before 2020 and consistent with the characteristics of China＇s current economic development stage. Meanwhile, efforts must be made to give prominence to consumption, investment, and export as drivers of growth while continuing to improve labor and capital input and efficiency which is vital to mid- and long- term economic development.展开更多
This paper studies China’s potential GDP growth in the“New Normal”period,and estimates the potential growth rate from the perspectives of demographic dividends,capital stock,and total factor growth rates,according ...This paper studies China’s potential GDP growth in the“New Normal”period,and estimates the potential growth rate from the perspectives of demographic dividends,capital stock,and total factor growth rates,according to the neoclassical growth equation.Meanwhile,based on China’s current situation,the following factors are also taken into account:(1)political level,which is the requirement for building a moderately prosperous society;(2)the potential demand from new urbanization in China;(3)constraints in China’s development,which are from resources,environment,and debt stress.Overall,the potential GDP growth in the“New Normal”period is changing along with changes in demographic structure,capital endowment,environmental requirements,and other constraints.We believe that a reasonable economic growth rate in the“New Normal”period should be around 7.5%in 2014,with an average growth of 6.5%for the period of 2016-2020,and the trend will then continue downward.On the basis of our analysis,we make some suggestions regarding macro-control,social welfare policy,and relative reform measures.展开更多
文摘This paper attempts to explain the "new normal" of China's economic development put forward by XI Jinping, the General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, from three perspectives. First, as the new normal is a natural phase of long-term development in the country's renaissance, recognition of it helps policy-making to hold a historical perspective and maintain a patience in the face of growth slowdown. Second, the new normal as the logic of China's economic development underlines the necessity and urgency of transforming growth patterns and growth drivers. Third, different from the "new mediocre" of the world economy, the new normal reveals great potentials of sustainable growth of the Chinese economy that must be tapped through structural reforms.
文摘Great achievements were made in the 12th Five-Year Plan period （2011-2015） in such areas as economic growth, living standards, industrial restructuring, innovation- driven growth, new-type urbanization and ecological civilization, trade and investment, and reform. These achievements have paved the way for China to enhance the quality and efficiency of growth in the new normal. China＇s future growth prospects are highly correlated with the 13th Five-Year Plan （2016-2020）. For the 13th Five-Year Plan period, China is committed to maintaining an annual growth rate of no less than 6.5%, which is both necessary for China to build an all-round, well-off society before 2020 and consistent with the characteristics of China＇s current economic development stage. Meanwhile, efforts must be made to give prominence to consumption, investment, and export as drivers of growth while continuing to improve labor and capital input and efficiency which is vital to mid- and long- term economic development.
文摘This paper studies China’s potential GDP growth in the“New Normal”period,and estimates the potential growth rate from the perspectives of demographic dividends,capital stock,and total factor growth rates,according to the neoclassical growth equation.Meanwhile,based on China’s current situation,the following factors are also taken into account:(1)political level,which is the requirement for building a moderately prosperous society;(2)the potential demand from new urbanization in China;(3)constraints in China’s development,which are from resources,environment,and debt stress.Overall,the potential GDP growth in the“New Normal”period is changing along with changes in demographic structure,capital endowment,environmental requirements,and other constraints.We believe that a reasonable economic growth rate in the“New Normal”period should be around 7.5%in 2014,with an average growth of 6.5%for the period of 2016-2020,and the trend will then continue downward.On the basis of our analysis,we make some suggestions regarding macro-control,social welfare policy,and relative reform measures.
