Role of the Greenland Sea ice anomaly in the late-spring drought over Northwest China

Drought across Northwest China in late spring has exerted a vital effect on the local climate and agricultural production,and has been alleviated during the past decades.This study explored the influence of the preceding Arctic sea ice on the May drought in Northwest China caused by the precipitation deficit.Further analysis indicated that when the Greenland Sea ice concentration is abnormally high during February to April,the dry conditions in Northwest China tend to be alleviated.The increase of sea ice in the Greenland Sea can excite a meridional circulation,which causes sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the North Atlantic via the sea-air interaction,manifested as significant warm SST anomalies over the south of Greenland and the subtropical North Atlantic,but negative SST anomalies over the west of the Azores.This abnormal SST pattern maintains to May and triggers a zonal wave train from the North Atlantic through Scandinavia and Central Asia to Northwest China,leading to abnormal cyclones in Northwest China.Consequently,Northwest China experiences a more humid climate than usual.

Coral records of Mid-Holocene sea-level highstands and climate responses in the northern South China Sea

High-resolution sea-level data and high-precision dating of corals in the northern South China Sea(SCS)during the Holocene provide a reference and historical background for current and future sea-level changes and a basis for scientific assessment of the evolutionary trend of coral reefs in the SCS.Although sporadic studies have been performed around Hainan Island in the northern SCS,the reconstructed sea level presents different values or is controversial because the indicative meaning of the sea-level indicators were neither quantified nor uniform criteria.Here,we determined the quantitative relationship between modern living coral and sea level by measuring the top surfaces of 27 live Porites corals from the inner reef flat along the east coast of Hainan Island and assessed the accuracy of results obtained using coral as sea-level indicators.Additionally,three in situ fossil Porites corals were analyzed based on elevation measurements,digital X-ray radiography,and U-Th dating.The survey results showed that the indicative meanings for the modern live Porites corals is(146.09±8.35)cm below the mean tide level(MTL).It suggested that their upward growth limit is constrained by the sea level,and the lowest low water is the highest level of survival for the modern live Porites corals.Based on the newly defined indicative meanings,6 new sea-level index points(SLIPs)were obtained and 19 published SLIPs were recalculated.Those SLIPs indicated a relative sea level fluctuation between(227.7±9.8)cm to(154.88±9.8)cm MTL between(5393±25)cal a BP and(3390±12)cal a BP,providing evidences of the Mid-Holocene sea-level highstand in the northern SCS.Besides that,our analysis demonstrated that different sea-level histories may be produced based on different indicative meanings or criteria.The dataset of 276 coral U-Th ages indicates that coral reef development in the northern SCS comprised the initial development,boom growth,decline,and flourishing development again.A comparison with regional records indicated that synergistic effects of climatic and environmental factors were involved in the development of coral reefs in the northern SCS.Thus,the cessation of coral reef development during the Holocene in the northern SCS was probably associated with the dry and cold climate in South China,as reflected in the synchronous weakening of the ENSO and East Asian summer monsoon induced by the reduction of the 65°N summer insolation,which forced the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone.

Paleogene transgression process and environmental evolution in the deepwater area of the Baiyun Depression in the northern South China Sea

Multiple borehole samples are collected from the Baiyun Depression in deep-water area of the northern South China Sea(SCS)in an effort to reconstruct transgression processes during the Paleogene based on palynalgal analysis.This study indicates that the Baiyun Depression generated a large group of palynopore assemblages and fluvial/lacustrine-related algae during the early and middle Eocene when the Wenchang Formation was deposited.The entire depression was dominated by fluvial and lacustrine facies before transgression.Its eastern and southeastern sags transitioned to shallow marine environment by generating a large abundance of marine dinoflagellates during the Enping deposition of the late Eocene.Meanwhile,the southern uplift zone simply yielded fluvial/lacustrine-related palynopores and algae,and was dominated by the fluvial and lacustrine environment during the early stage of the Enping Formation,prior to shifting into transitional setting in the later period.Northwestern sags remained extensive fluvial and delta facies without existence of marine dinoflagellates.It was until the depositional stage of the Zhuhai Formation(Oligocene)that the overall depression was strongly impacted from transgression process.Both eastern and southeastern sags were mainly under deep marine setting on a continental slope while northwestern and southern areas developed transitional facies.Although distribution and accumulation patterns varied greatly among sub-sags,the overall Baiyun Depression was characterized by widespread development of marine dinoflagellates.It should be noted that the northwestern sag also partly generated large-scale river delta deposits.Due to the eustatic rise and change of SCS spreading axis,the overall Baiyun Depression was mostly influenced by the deep marine environment on a continental slope during the early Miocene.Both northwestern sag and southern uplift zone were found plentiful marine dinoflagellates.In summary,transgression initiated from the eastern and southeastern Baiyun Depression before subsequently progressing into the farther west.Evolution of transgression process is also greatly consistent with the gradual westward expansion of the SCS.

Detection of a mud volcano in the Weitan Banks area of the northern South China Sea

Situated between the petroliferous Cenozoic Zhujiang(Pearl)River Mouth Basin and the mud volcano-rich Mesozoic Dongsha Basin in the middle sector of the northern South China Sea,the Weitan Banks area has been previously mapped as a basement high that is composed of Mesozoic magmatic rocks.In this study,we present several favorable indicators for petroleum geology that were detected from geophysical profiling and benthic sampling in the area.A conspicuous hill was discovered,named“Zhongwei Hill”,~80 m high above the~340 m deep seafloor and~1 km broad,in a depression with more than 7 km thick sedimentary strata.The Zhongwei Hill was seismically imaged with a mushroom-shaped structure and containing a cake-like crown,fluid flow pipes,and an~10 km broad anticline at depth.Thus,the hill represents a source-plumbing-eruption system.Shallow gas zones linked to deep fracture were found at or near the hill.Stratigraphic correlation indicates that the deep strata comprise the Jurassic and Paleogene strata,the major hosts of hydrocarbon source rocks.In addition to the hill,there are number of mounds from which three bottom water samples were collected and the samples are rich in dissolved methane with concentrations high up to~900 nmol/L,much higher than the background level(0.5–2 nmol/L).The benthic samples are rich in coarse sediment clastics,authigenic carbonate nodules,and deep-water habitats likely feeding on methanotrophic community.Given these observations and the context,we propose that the Zhongwei Hill represents a mud volcano,likely thermally driven,that seeps methane from Jurassic and Paleogene source layers,thus poses a favorable clue for significant hydrocarbon generation capacity in transitional zone of the Zhujiang River Mouth Basin and the Dongsha Basin.

The impact of typhoons on the biogeochemistry of dissolved organic matter in eutrophic bays in northwestern South China Sea

Highly productive estuaries facilitate intense decomposition of dissolved organic matter(DOM) as a carbon source.However,the specific impacts of typhoons on DOM decomposition in eutrophic bays remain unclear.To address this issue,we investigated the spectral characteristics of DOM before and after Typhoon Ewiniar in Zhanjiang B ay,a eutrophic semi-enclosed bay in the northwestern South China Sea.The results revealed that intense microbial decomposition of DOM occurred during the pre-typhoon period because high nutrient inputs facilitated the mobilization of DOM in the bay.However,the intrusion of external seawater induced by the typhoon diluted the nutrient levels in Zhanjiang B ay,reducing the impact of microbial decomposition on DOM during the post-typhoon perio d.Nevertheless,the net addition of DOM occurred in Zhanjiang Bay during the post-typhoon period,possibly because of the decomposition of particulate organic matter(POM) and desorption of particulate matter.In addition,an increase in apparent oxygen utilization,a decrease in DO saturation and the reduced level of Chl a indicated that organic matter(OM) decomposition was enhanced and OM decomposition shifted to POM decomposition in Zhanjiang Bay after the typhoon.Overall,our study highlighted the shift in the intense OM decomposition from DOM to POM decomposition before and after typhoons in eutrophic bays,providing new insights into the response of typhoons to biogeo chemistry.

U-Pb zircon geochronology of basaltic pyroclastic rocks from the basement beneath the Xisha Islands in the northwestern South China Sea and its geological significance

As one of the micro-blocks dispersed in the South China Sea(SCS), the basement of the Xisha Islands has rarely been drilled because of the thick overlying Cenozoic sediments, which has led to a confused understanding of the pre-Cenozoic basement of the Xisha Islands. Well CK-1, a kilometer-scale major scientific drill in the Xisha Islands in the northwestern SCS, penetrated thick reefal limestone(0–888.4 m) and the underlying basement rocks(888.4–901.4 m). In this study, we present the zircon U-Pb ages of basement basaltic pyroclastic rocks from Well CK-1 in the Xisha Islands of the northwestern SCS to investigate the basement nature of the Xisha microblock. The basement of Well CK-1 consists of basaltic pyroclastic rocks on the seamount. The zircon grains yielded apparent ages ranging from ca. 2 138.9 Ma to ca. 36 Ma. The old group of zircon grains from Well CK-1 was considered to be inherited zircons. Two Cenozoic zircons gave a weighted mean 206Pb/238U age of(36.3 ± 1.1) Ma,Mean Squared Weighted Deviations(MSWD) = 1.2, which may represent the maximum age of the volcano eruption. The Yanshanian inherited zircons(116.9–105.7 Ma and 146.1–130.2 Ma) from Well CK-1 are consistent with the zircons from Well XK-1, indicating that the basement of Chenhang Island may be similar to that of Well XK-1. We propose that the Xisha micro-block may have developed on a uniform Late Jurassic metamorphic crystalline basement, intruded by Cretaceous granitic magma.

A case study of continental shelf waves in the northwestern South China Sea induced by winter storms in 2021

This study aims to investigate characteristics of continental shelf wave(CSW)on the northwestern continental shelf of the South China Sea(SCS)induced by winter storms in 2021.Mooring and cruise observations,tidal gauge data at stations Hong Kong,Zhapo and Qinglan and sea surface wind data from January 1 to February 28,2021 are used to examine the relationship between along-shelf wind and sea level fluctuation.Two events of CSWs driven by the along-shelf sea surface wind are detected from wavelet spectra of tidal gauge data.The signals are triply peaked at periods of 56 h,94 h and 180 h,propagating along the coast with phase speed ranging from 6.9 m/s to18.9 m/s.The dispersion relation shows their property of the Kelvin mode of CSW.We develop a simple method to estimate amplitude of sea surface fluctuation by along-shelf wind.The results are comparable with the observation data,suggesting it is effective.The mode 2 CSWs fits very well with the mooring current velocity data.The results from rare current help to understand wave-current interaction in the northwestern SCS.

Geometry and 3D seismic characterisation of post-rift normal faults in the Pearl River Mouth Basin,northern South China Sea

Based on high-resolution 3D seismic data acquired in the Pearl(Zhujiang)River Mouth Basin of the northern South China Sea,this study investigated the geometry,spatial extension,and throw distribution of the post-rift normal fault through detailed seismic interpretation and fault modeling.A total of 289 post-rift normal faults were identified in the study area and can be classified into four types:(1)isolated normal faults above the carbonate platform;(2)isolated normal faults cutting through the carbonate platform;(3)conjugate normal faults,and(4)connecting normal faults.Throw distribution analysis on the fault planes show that the vertical throw profiles of most normal fault exhibit flat-topped profiles.Isolated normal faults above the carbonate platform exhibit roughly concentric ellipses with maximum throw zones in the central section whereas the normal faults cutting through the carbonate platform miss the lowermost section due to the chaotic seismic reflections in the interior of the carbonate platform.The vertical throws of conjugate normal faults anomalously decrease toward their intersection region on the fault plane whereas the connecting normal faults present two maximum throw zones in the central section of the fault plane.According to the symmetric elliptical distribution model of fault throw,an estimation was made indicating that normal faults cutting through the carbonate platform extended downward between-1308 s and-1780 s(two-way travel time)in depth and may not penetrate the entire Liuhua carbonate platform.Moreover,it is observed that the distribution of karst caves on the top of the carbonate platform disaccord with those of hydrocarbon reservoirs and the post-rift normal faults cutting through the carbonate platform in the study area.We propose that these karst caves formed most probably by corrosive fluids derived from magmatic activities during the Dongsha event,rather than pore waters or hydrocarbons.

Freshening of the Intermediate Waters in the Northern South China Sea over the Past Six Decades

The properties of salinity in the South China Sea(SCS),a significant marginal sea connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans,are greatly influenced by the transport of fresh water flux between the two oceans.However,the long-term changes in the intermediate water in the SCS have not been thoroughly studied due to limited data,particularly in relation to its thermodynamic variations.This study utilized reanalysis data products to identify a 60-year trend of freshening in the intermediate waters of the northern South China Sea(NSCS),accompanied by an expansion of low-salinity water.The study also constructed salinity budget terms,including advection and entrainment processes,and conducted an analysis of the salinity budget to understand the impacts of external and internal dynamic processes on the freshening trend of the intermediate water in the NSCS.The analysis revealed that the freshening in the northwest Pacific Ocean and the intensification of intrusion through the Luzon Strait at intermediate levels are the primary drivers of the salinity changes in the NSCS.Additionally,a weakened trend in the intensity of vertical entrainment also contributes to the freshening in the NSCS.This study offers new insights into the understanding of regional deep sea changes in response to variations in both thermodynamics and oceanic dynamic processes.

Differential scavenging behavior of anthropogenic Pb revealed by sediment traps in the northern South China Sea basin

Trace metals emitted from human activities may have penetrated into the deep seas,and the underlying control mechanisms remain poorly understood.Sinking particles collected by moored time-series sediment traps from the northern South China Sea(NSCS)basin showed significant enrichment of anthropogenic aerosol Pb relative to lithogenic Fe.Total mass flux was primarily driven by seasonal primary production,and significant positive correlations were found between Pb/Fe flux and major biogenic components,indicating the crucial role of the biological pump in Pb/Fe scavenging in the water column.Notably,Pb exhibited 30−50 times higher affinity to biogenic components than Fe.A comparison was made between the enrichment factors of Fe and Pb in aerosols,euphotic particles,and sinking particles,which revealed that Pb exhibited significantly higher particle reactivity than Fe.This higher particle reactivity may encompass processes such as adsorption/desorption,bioaccumulation and decomposition release.The differential scavenging behavior of Pb suggested that the majority of Pb was rapidly scavenged in the euphotic zone and was preferentially released for accumulation in the twilight zone.This accumulation may further outflow through the Luzon Strait and result in the high dissolved Pb concentration observed in the subsurface water columns in both the NSCS and western Pacific Ocean.The rest of anthropogenic Pb in sinking particles tended to penetrate into deeper water layers and continue to be released below the twilight zone.These findings provide new insights into the biogeochemical cycling of trace metals originating from anthropogenic aerosols in marginal seas and serve as an example of the fate of other anthropogenic atmospheric pollutants.

Subsurface Temperature and Salinity Structures Inversion Using a Stacking-Based Fusion Model from Satellite Observations in the South China Sea

Three-dimensional ocean subsurface temperature and salinity structures(OST/OSS)in the South China Sea(SCS)play crucial roles in oceanic climate research and disaster mitigation.Traditionally,real-time OST and OSS are mainly obtained through in-situ ocean observations and simulation by ocean circulation models,which are usually challenging and costly.Recently,dynamical,statistical,or machine learning models have been proposed to invert the OST/OSS from sea surface information;however,these models mainly focused on the inversion of monthly OST and OSS.To address this issue,we apply clustering algorithms and employ a stacking strategy to ensemble three models(XGBoost,Random Forest,and LightGBM)to invert the real-time OST/OSS based on satellite-derived data and the Argo dataset.Subsequently,a fusion of temperature and salinity is employed to reconstruct OST and OSS.In the validation dataset,the depth-averaged Correlation(Corr)of the estimated OST(OSS)is 0.919(0.83),and the average Root-Mean-Square Error(RMSE)is0.639°C(0.087 psu),with a depth-averaged coefficient of determination(R~2)of 0.84(0.68).Notably,at the thermocline where the base models exhibit their maximum error,the stacking-based fusion model exhibited significant performance enhancement,with a maximum enhancement in OST and OSS inversion exceeding 10%.We further found that the estimated OST and OSS exhibit good agreement with the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model(HYCOM)data and BOA_Argo dataset during the passage of a mesoscale eddy.This study shows that the proposed model can effectively invert the real-time OST and OSS,potentially enhancing the understanding of multi-scale oceanic processes in the SCS.

Deep-large faults controlling on the distribution of the venting gas hydrate system in the middle of the Qiongdongnan Basin, South China Sea

Many locations with concentrated hydrates at vents have confirmed the presence of abundant thermogenic gas in the middle of the Qiongdongnan Basin(QDNB).However,the impact of deep structures on gasbearing fluids migration and gas hydrates distribution in tectonically inactive regions is still unclear.In this study,the authors apply high-resolution 3D seismic and logging while drilling(LWD)data from the middle of the QDNB to investigate the influence of deep-large faults on gas chimneys and preferred gasescape pipes.The findings reveal the following:(1)Two significant deep-large faults,F1 and F2,developed on the edge of the Songnan Low Uplift,control the dominant migration of thermogenic hydrocarbons and determine the initial locations of gas chimneys.(2)The formation of gas chimneys is likely related to fault activation and reactivation.Gas chimney 1 is primarily arises from convergent fluid migration resulting from the intersection of the two faults,while the gas chimney 2 benefits from a steeper fault plane and shorter migration distance of fault F2.(3)Most gas-escape pipes are situated near the apex of the two faults.Their reactivations facilitate free gas flow into the GHSZ and contribute to the formation of fracture‐filling hydrates.

Preliminary Study of Microzooplankton Grazing and Community Composition in the North of South China Sea in Autumn

Microzoopiankton community composition in the north of South China Sea was investigated during autumn （between September and October）, 2004. Dilution technique using chlorophyll a （Chl a） was employed to estimate grazing rates and grazing pressure. The results showed that Polymenophorea Oligotrichida was the dominant group with 16 species, and there were 4 species in Oligotrichina and 11 species in Tintinnina. The ciliates abundance ranged from 9 to 102 ind/m^3, instantaneous growth rates of phytoplankton （k） varied from 0.03 / d to 2.13 / d. Grazing rates of microzooplankton（g） ranged between 0.01 / d and 1.06 / d. The grazing pressure on initial phytoplankton stock （Pi） and primary production （Pp） was 0.089 % - 65.23 % and 33.63 % - 86.04 %, respectively. The grazing of microzooplankton was mainly limited by ciliates abundance. Results of grazing pressure on primary production indicated that microzooplankton played an improtant role in transmitting primary production in the north of South China Sea.

Morphological and Sulfur-Isotopic Characteristics of Pyrites in the Deep Sediments from Xisha Trough,South China Sea

Pyrite is one of the common authigenic minerals in marine sediments.Previous studies have shown that the morphological and isotopic characteristics of pyrite are closely related to the geochemical environment where it is formed.To better understand the for-mation mechanism of authigenic pyrite,we analyzed the isotopic composition,morphology,and distribution of pyrite in the sediment at 500m below the seafloor from Xisha Trough,South China Sea.Mineral morphologies were observed by scanning electron micros-copy and Raman spectrography.X-Ray computed tomography was applied to measure the particle size of pyrite.The size of pyrite crystals in the matrix sediment mainly ranged between 25 and 65µm(av.ca.40µm),although crystals were larger(av.ca.50μm)in the veins.The pyrites had a fine-grained truncated octahedral shape with occasionally well-developed growth steps,which implies the low growth rate and weak anaerobic oxidation of methane-sulfate reduction when pyrite was formed.Theδ^(34)S values of pyrites ranged from+20.8‰Vienna-defined Canyon Diablo Troilite(V-CDT)to+33.2‰V-CDT and from+44.8‰V-CDT to+48.9‰,which suggest two growth stages.In the first stage,with the continuous low methane flux,the pyrite possibly formed in an environment with good access to seawater.In the second stage,the pyrites mainly developed in sediment fractures and appeared in veins,probably due to the limited availability of sulfate.The less exposure of pyrite to the environment in the second stage was probably caused by sediment accumulation or perturbation.In this study,an episodic pyritization process was identified,and the paleoenvironment was reconstructed for the sediment investigated.

The 3D magnetic structure beneath the continental margin of the northeastern South China Sea

Understanding the continental margin of the Northeastern South China Sea is critical to the study of deep structures, tectonic evolution, and dynamics of the region. One set of important data for this endeavor is the total-field magnetic data. Given the challenges associated with the magnetic data at low latitudes and with remanent magnetism in this area, we combine the equivalent-source technique and magnetic amplitude inversion to recover 3D subsurface magnetic structures. The inversion results show that this area is characterized by a north-south block division and east-west zonation. Magnetic regions strike in EW, NE and NW direction and are consistent with major tectonic trends in the region. The highly magnetic zone recovered from inversion in the continental margin differs visibly from that of the magnetically quiet zones to the south. The magnetic anomaly zone strikes in NE direction, covering an area of about 500 km × 60 km, and extending downward to a depth of 25 km or more. In combination with other geophysical data, we suggest that this strongly magnetic zone was produced by deep underplating of magma associated with plate subduction in Mesozoic period. The magnetically quiet zone in the south is an EW trending unit underlain by broad and gentle magnetic layers of lower crust. Its magnetic structure bears a clear resemblance to oceanic crust, assumed to be related to the presence of ancient oceanic crust there.

New record of the feather star Palaeocomatella hiwia(Echinodermata:Crinoidea:Comatulida)from Zhenbei Seamount in South China Sea:new insights into the taxonomic position of Palaeocomatella

One specimen belonging to the family Comatellinae was collected from the Zhenbei Seamount(332.5–478.2 m)in the South China Sea in July 2022.Based on the morphological characters,the specimen was identified as Palaeocomatella hiwia McKnight,1977.It is first recorded from China Sea and redescribed in detail.This specimen differs from the original description from New Zealand for never showing syzygy at br4+5 or br5+6 on interior and br1+2 on exterior arms.However,it is much conform to the redescription to specimens from Indonesia,with only differences in position of the second syzygy and distalmost pinnule comb.Specimen is deposited in the Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Sciences.Phylogenetic analyses based on the mitochondrial c oxidase subunit I(COI)and 16S rRNA genes indicated that P.hiwia was nested within the tribe Phanogeniini and clustered with Aphanocomaster pulcher.Furthermore,P.hiwia showed same morphological features in terms of mouth placement,comb location,and number of comb teeth rows as other genera of Phanogeniini.Therefore,we suggest that the genus Palaeocomatella should be put in the tribe Phanogeniini.

Differences in Precipitation and Related Wind Dynamics and Moisture and Heat Features in Separate Areas of the South China Sea before and after Summer Monsoon Onset

Using surface and balloon-sounding measurements, satellite retrievals, and ERA5 reanalysis during 2011–20, this study compares the precipitation and related wind dynamics, moisture and heat features in different areas of the South China Sea(SCS) before and after SCS summer monsoon onset(SCSSMO). The rainy sea around Dongsha(hereafter simply referred to as Dongsha) near the north coast, and the rainless sea around Xisha(hereafter simply referred to as Xisha) in the western SCS, are selected as two typical research subregions. It is found that Dongsha, rather than Xisha, has an earlier and greater increase in precipitation after SCSSMO under the combined effect of strong low-level southwesterly winds, coastal terrain blocking and lifting, and northern cold air. When the 950-h Pa southwesterly winds enhance and advance northward, accompanied by strengthened moisture flux, there is a strong convergence of wind and moisture in Dongsha due to a sudden deceleration and rear-end collision of wind by coastal terrain blocking. Moist and warm advection over Dongsha enhances early and deepens up to 200 h Pa in association with the strengthened upward motion after SCSSMO, thereby providing ample moisture and heat to form strong precipitation. However, when the 950-h Pa southwesterly winds weaken and retreat southward, Xisha is located in a wind-break area where strong convergence and upward motion centers move in. The vertical moistening and heating by advection in Xisha enhance later and appear far weaker compared to that in Dongsha, consistent with later and weaker precipitation.

Distribution and composition of tintinnids ciliates in the northern South China Sea during summer

Tintinnids were enumerated and identified in samples collected from 36 stations between 18°-22°N, 107°-122 °E in the northern South China Sea （NSCS）. 44 species belonging to 24 genera of tintinnids were recorded. The dominant species were He/icostome/la /onga and Tintinnopsis radix. Tintinnids abundance ranged from 0 to 2 200 cell/L, and mean abundance was 221cell/L in the surface water. Tintinnids abundance and species numbers decreased from coast to offshore. Upwelling and Pearl River discharge influenced the distribution of tintinnids by regulating nutrients supply. Maximum abundance （2 200 cell/L） was found in the surface water of A1. Tintinnids abundance showed positive relationship with chlorophyll a （Chl a） concentration, and no significant relationship was found between tintinnids abundance and temperature.

The Predictability Limit of Oceanic Mesoscale Eddy Tracks in the South China Sea

Employing the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) technique, this study assesses the quantitative predictability limit of oceanic mesoscale eddy (OME) tracks utilizing three eddy datasets for both annual and seasonal means. Our findings reveal a discernible predictability limit of approximately 39 days for cyclonic eddies (CEs) and 44 days for anticyclonic eddies (AEs) within the South China Sea (SCS). The predictability limit is related to the OME properties and seasons. The long-lived, large-amplitude, and large-radius OMEs tend to have a higher predictability limit. The predictability limit of AE (CE) tracks is highest in autumn (winter) with 52 (53) days and lowest in spring (summer) with 40 (30) days. The spatial distribution of the predictability limit of OME tracks also has seasonal variations, further finding that the area of higher predictability limits often overlaps with periodic OMEs. Additionally, the predictability limit of periodic OME tracks is about 49 days for both CEs and AEs, which is 5-10 days higher than the mean values. Usually, in the SCS, OMEs characterized by high predictability limit values exhibit more extended and smoother trajectories and often move along the northern slope of the SCS.

Evaluation and projection of marine heatwaves in the South China Sea: insights from CMIP6 multi-model ensemble

This study evaluates the performance of 16 models sourced from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6(CMIP6)in simulating marine heatwaves(MHWs)in the South China Sea(SCS)during the historical period(1982−2014),and also investigates future changes in SCS MHWs based on simulations from three shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,and SSP585)using CMIP6 models.Results demonstrate that the CMIP6 models perform well in simulating the spatial-temporal distribution and intensity of SCS MHWs,with their multi-model ensemble(MME)results showing the best performance.The reasonable agreement between the observations and CMIP6 MME reveals that the increasing trends of SCS MHWs are attributed to the warming sea surface temperature trend.Under various SSP scenarios,the year 2040 emerges as pivotal juncture for future shifts in SCS MHWs,marked by distinct variations in changing rate and amplitudes.This is characterized by an accelerated decrease in MHWs frequency and a notably heightened increase in mean intensity,duration,and total days after 2040.Furthermore,the projection results for SCS MHWs suggest that the spatial pattern of MHWs remains consistent across future periods.However,the intensity shows higher consistency only during the near-term period(2021−2050),while notable inconsistencies are observed during the medium-term(2041−2070)and long-term(2071−2100)periods under the three SSP scenarios.During the nearterm period,the SCS MHWs are characterized by moderate and strong events with high frequencies and relatively shorter durations.In contrast,during the medium-term period,MHWs are also characterized by moderate and strong events,but with longer-lasting and more intense events under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios.However,in the long-term period,extreme MHWs become the dominant feature under the SSP585 scenario,indicating a substantial intensification of SCS MHWs,effectively establishing a near-permanent state.