The research on the characteristic frequency of precipitation is a great significance for guiding regional agricultural planning, water conservancy project designs, and drought and flood control. Droughts and floods o...The research on the characteristic frequency of precipitation is a great significance for guiding regional agricultural planning, water conservancy project designs, and drought and flood control. Droughts and floods occurred in northern Weihe Loess Plateau, affecting growing and yield of winter wheat in the area. Based on the daily precipitation data of 29 meteorological stations from 1981 to 2012, this study is to address the analysis of three different frequencies of annual precipitation at 5%, 50%, and 95%, and to determine the amount of rainfall excess and water shortage during seven growth stages of winter wheat at 5%, 10%, and 20% frequencies, respectively. Pearson type III curve was selected for this study to analyze the distribution frequency of annual rainfall and rainfall amount following seven growth stages of winter wheat crop in 29 stations of Northern Weihe loess plateau. As a result of our study, annual precipitation is gradually increasing from southwest to northeast of Northern Weihe loess plateau. The highest amount of annual precipitation occurred in the Baoji area and the lowest precipitation covered by the northwest area of Northern Weihe loess plateau. Moreover, the amount of rainfall of seven growth stages indicates that excessive rainfall occurs not only in the first stage (sowing to tillering) and seventh stage (flowering to ripening) but also in second stage (tillering to wintering). In the seventh stage, a large amount of excessive rainfall occurred in Changwu, Bin, Qianyang, Fengxiang, Baojiqu, and Baojixian. Moreover, water shortage is distributed in the third stage (from wintering to greening), the fourth stage (from greening to jointing), the fifth stage (from jointing to heading), and the sixth stage (from heading to flowering). Furthermore, the worst water shortages occurred in Hancheng, Heyang, Chengcheng, Pucheng, Dali, Tongchuan, and Fuping in the fourth stage (greening to jointing stage). Even though we study the crop water requirement under extreme rainfall conditions, the amount of rainwater still supply inadequate in some parts of the winter wheat growth stage. Therefore, this study provides main clues for the next step to study the irrigation water needs of winter wheat crops and to reduce agricultural risks in 29 counties in the northern loess plateau and other regions.展开更多
[Objective] The research aimed to study the variability and variation characteristics of climate in northern winter wheat zone during 1961-2004.[Method] Based on the meteorological data (temperature,precipitation and ...[Objective] The research aimed to study the variability and variation characteristics of climate in northern winter wheat zone during 1961-2004.[Method] Based on the meteorological data (temperature,precipitation and sunshine) of 55 meteorological stations in northern winter wheat zone during 1961-2004 and the yield data of winter wheat,by using the linear regression,correlated coefficient and climatic tendency rate,the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of agricultural climatic resources (sunshine hours,temperature and precipitation) in northern winter wheat zone were analyzed.[Result] The annual average temperature,precipitation and sunshine hours in northern winter wheat zone during 1961-2004 all presented certain zonal distribution in the space.The precipitation and temperature gradually decreased from south to north.The sunshine hours gradually increased from south to north.The annual average temperature overall presented rise trend in northern winter wheat zone in 44 years,but the rise rate had difference in the different areas.The rise of annual average temperature in the high-latitude zone was more obvious than that in the low-latitude zone.The annual rainfall overall presented decrease trend,and the tendency rate of annual precipitation had significant difference in the different areas.The decrease rates of rainfalls in the central and western areas were bigger than that in other areas.The annual sunshine hours overall presented decline trend.In most areas,the tendency rate of annual sunshine hours was negative.But there was certain difference in the different areas.The zones where the decrease amplitude was smaller scattered in the west,and included central Shaanxi,south of Shanxi and some areas in southeast of Shandong.The decrease amplitudes were bigger in south of Henan,northwest of Shandong and south of Hebei.[Conclusion] The research provided theoretical basis for understanding the historical evolution of climate in northern winter wheat zone.展开更多
[Objective] This study was to provide methods to improve the scientificity and informatization level of agricultural decision-making system based on the study of Decision Support System for "Northing of Winter Wheat...[Objective] This study was to provide methods to improve the scientificity and informatization level of agricultural decision-making system based on the study of Decision Support System for "Northing of Winter Wheat" in Hebei Province (DSS- NWWH). [Method] The functions, development process, operation guidance as well as input and output modes of DSSNWWH were introduced, and the simulated results of the system were verified by comparing with the actual situations. [Result] The decision support system established in this study could predict whether a wheat variety could live through the winter in a certain area of northern Hebei Province, as well as the growth conditions based on the previous meteorological data or local weather forecast, and provided corresponding cultivation and management measures, making it possible for the user to determine whether the variety could be planted in the region based on the predictions. [Conclusion] The established DSSNWWH in this study can effectively help decision makers make decisions, providing scientific instructions for the northing of winter wheat.展开更多
Significantly increasing temperature since the 1980s in China has become a consensus under the background of global climate change and how climate change affects agriculture or even cropping systems has attracted more...Significantly increasing temperature since the 1980s in China has become a consensus under the background of global climate change and how climate change affects agriculture or even cropping systems has attracted more and more attention from Chinese government and scientists. In this study, the possible effects of climate warming on the national northern limits of cropping systems, the northern limits of winter wheat and double rice, and the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation in China from 1981 to 2007 were analyzed. Also, the possible change of crop yield caused by planting limits displacement during the periods 1950s-1981 and 1981-2007 was compared and discussed. The recognized calculation methods of agricultural climatic indices were employed. According to the indices of climatic regionalization for cropping systems, the national northern limits of cropping systems, winter wheat and double rice, and the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation during two periods, including the 1950s-1980 and 1981-2007, were drawn with ArcGIS software. Compared with the situation during the 1950s- 1980, the northern limits of double cropping system during 1981-2007 showed significant spatial displacement in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, and Liaoning provinces and Beijing municipality, China. The northern limits of triple cropping system showed the maximum spatial displacement in Hunan, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces, China. Without considering variety change and social economic factors, the per unit area grain yield of main planting patterns would increase about 54-106% if single cropping system was replaced by double cropping system, which turned out to be 27- 58% if double cropping system was replaced by triple cropping system. In Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Gansu, and Qinghai provinces, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia autonomous regions, China, the northern limits of winter wheat during 1981-2007 moved northward and expanded westward in different degrees, compared with those during the 1950s-1980. Taking Hebei Province as an example, the northern limits of winter wheat moved northward, and the per unit area grain yield would averagely increase about 25% in the change region if the spring wheat was replaced by winter wheat. In Zhejiang, Anhui, Hubei, and Hunan provinces, China, the planting northern limits of double rice moved northward, and the per unit area grain yield would increase in different degrees only from the perspective of heat resource. The stable- yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation moved southeastward in most regions, which was caused by the decrease of local precipitation in recent years. During the past 50 yr, climate warming made the national northern limits of cropping systems move northward in different degrees, the northern limits of winter wheat and double rice both moved northward, and the cropping system change would cause the increase of per unit area grain yield in the change region. However, the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation moved southeastward due to the decrease of precipitation.展开更多
[Objective] The aim was to study the simulation mode application in winter wheat north moving.[Method] Based on meteorological data of many years collected in north of Hebei province,and arrangement of multi-location ...[Objective] The aim was to study the simulation mode application in winter wheat north moving.[Method] Based on meteorological data of many years collected in north of Hebei province,and arrangement of multi-location field experiment,mode against cold was constructed considering cold-resistance characteristics of wheat.[Result] Wheat overwintering was forecasted with the help of working mode,results were verified,and the safe northern boundary for wheat overwintering in Hebei was determined in regions below dam in the south of 41°N.[Conclusion] This study provided reference for exploration of dynamic rules of wheat growth,and growth influence by environment and plant technique.展开更多
北部冬麦区是我国重要的小麦主产区之一,对该麦区历年国审小麦品种进行回溯分析有助于小麦品种资源的合理利用。本研究基于产量与熟期、穗数、穗粒数、千粒重、容重、品质指数、抗病指数和抗寒指数等性状的组合,采用品种-产量×性...北部冬麦区是我国重要的小麦主产区之一,对该麦区历年国审小麦品种进行回溯分析有助于小麦品种资源的合理利用。本研究基于产量与熟期、穗数、穗粒数、千粒重、容重、品质指数、抗病指数和抗寒指数等性状的组合,采用品种-产量×性状组合(GYT,genotype by yield×trait)双标图方法对2003-2023年期间北部冬麦区47个国审小麦品种进行了综合分析和分类评价。结果表明,47个国审小麦品种可划分为4个特征显著的品种类型。其中,Ⅰ型品种综合表现优秀,在产量与早熟性、抗病性、抗寒性、千粒重和容重等性状组合上表现突出,在产量与穗数、穗粒数和品质指数组合上表现优良,在生产上推广应用价值最高,主要包括京麦179、京农16和津麦3118等8个品种。Ⅱ型品种综合表现优良,在产量与品质指数、穗数组合上表现突出,在产量与抗病指数、抗寒指数组合上表现稍差,在生产上推广应用价值较高,但应注意生产安全,主要包括京麦202、京农19和轮选158等13个品种。Ⅲ型品种的产量与抗病和抗寒指数组合最好,但在其余性状组合上表现差,综合生产应用价值有限,可作为抗性亲本。Ⅳ型品种综合表现较差,可选择单性状表现优良的品种作为育种亲本应用。根据各品种在GYT双标图ATA轴上的投影位置,筛选出综合表现优良的京麦179、京农16、津麦3118、京麦189、京麦202、京花12号、京农19、轮选158和中麦623等品种。本研究采用GYT双标图分析方法基于“产量-性状”组合水平对北部冬麦区小麦品种进行综合评价和分类研究,为其他作物和地区的类似研究提供了参考。展开更多
文摘The research on the characteristic frequency of precipitation is a great significance for guiding regional agricultural planning, water conservancy project designs, and drought and flood control. Droughts and floods occurred in northern Weihe Loess Plateau, affecting growing and yield of winter wheat in the area. Based on the daily precipitation data of 29 meteorological stations from 1981 to 2012, this study is to address the analysis of three different frequencies of annual precipitation at 5%, 50%, and 95%, and to determine the amount of rainfall excess and water shortage during seven growth stages of winter wheat at 5%, 10%, and 20% frequencies, respectively. Pearson type III curve was selected for this study to analyze the distribution frequency of annual rainfall and rainfall amount following seven growth stages of winter wheat crop in 29 stations of Northern Weihe loess plateau. As a result of our study, annual precipitation is gradually increasing from southwest to northeast of Northern Weihe loess plateau. The highest amount of annual precipitation occurred in the Baoji area and the lowest precipitation covered by the northwest area of Northern Weihe loess plateau. Moreover, the amount of rainfall of seven growth stages indicates that excessive rainfall occurs not only in the first stage (sowing to tillering) and seventh stage (flowering to ripening) but also in second stage (tillering to wintering). In the seventh stage, a large amount of excessive rainfall occurred in Changwu, Bin, Qianyang, Fengxiang, Baojiqu, and Baojixian. Moreover, water shortage is distributed in the third stage (from wintering to greening), the fourth stage (from greening to jointing), the fifth stage (from jointing to heading), and the sixth stage (from heading to flowering). Furthermore, the worst water shortages occurred in Hancheng, Heyang, Chengcheng, Pucheng, Dali, Tongchuan, and Fuping in the fourth stage (greening to jointing stage). Even though we study the crop water requirement under extreme rainfall conditions, the amount of rainwater still supply inadequate in some parts of the winter wheat growth stage. Therefore, this study provides main clues for the next step to study the irrigation water needs of winter wheat crops and to reduce agricultural risks in 29 counties in the northern loess plateau and other regions.
基金Supported by Special Item of Public Welfare Industry Science Research ( GYHY201006025)
文摘[Objective] The research aimed to study the variability and variation characteristics of climate in northern winter wheat zone during 1961-2004.[Method] Based on the meteorological data (temperature,precipitation and sunshine) of 55 meteorological stations in northern winter wheat zone during 1961-2004 and the yield data of winter wheat,by using the linear regression,correlated coefficient and climatic tendency rate,the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of agricultural climatic resources (sunshine hours,temperature and precipitation) in northern winter wheat zone were analyzed.[Result] The annual average temperature,precipitation and sunshine hours in northern winter wheat zone during 1961-2004 all presented certain zonal distribution in the space.The precipitation and temperature gradually decreased from south to north.The sunshine hours gradually increased from south to north.The annual average temperature overall presented rise trend in northern winter wheat zone in 44 years,but the rise rate had difference in the different areas.The rise of annual average temperature in the high-latitude zone was more obvious than that in the low-latitude zone.The annual rainfall overall presented decrease trend,and the tendency rate of annual precipitation had significant difference in the different areas.The decrease rates of rainfalls in the central and western areas were bigger than that in other areas.The annual sunshine hours overall presented decline trend.In most areas,the tendency rate of annual sunshine hours was negative.But there was certain difference in the different areas.The zones where the decrease amplitude was smaller scattered in the west,and included central Shaanxi,south of Shanxi and some areas in southeast of Shandong.The decrease amplitudes were bigger in south of Henan,northwest of Shandong and south of Hebei.[Conclusion] The research provided theoretical basis for understanding the historical evolution of climate in northern winter wheat zone.
基金Supported by the Technology R&D Program of Hebei Province,China~~
文摘[Objective] This study was to provide methods to improve the scientificity and informatization level of agricultural decision-making system based on the study of Decision Support System for "Northing of Winter Wheat" in Hebei Province (DSS- NWWH). [Method] The functions, development process, operation guidance as well as input and output modes of DSSNWWH were introduced, and the simulated results of the system were verified by comparing with the actual situations. [Result] The decision support system established in this study could predict whether a wheat variety could live through the winter in a certain area of northern Hebei Province, as well as the growth conditions based on the previous meteorological data or local weather forecast, and provided corresponding cultivation and management measures, making it possible for the user to determine whether the variety could be planted in the region based on the predictions. [Conclusion] The established DSSNWWH in this study can effectively help decision makers make decisions, providing scientific instructions for the northing of winter wheat.
基金funded by the Mode Construction of Modern Farming System and Supporting Technology Research and Demonstration, China (200803028)
文摘Significantly increasing temperature since the 1980s in China has become a consensus under the background of global climate change and how climate change affects agriculture or even cropping systems has attracted more and more attention from Chinese government and scientists. In this study, the possible effects of climate warming on the national northern limits of cropping systems, the northern limits of winter wheat and double rice, and the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation in China from 1981 to 2007 were analyzed. Also, the possible change of crop yield caused by planting limits displacement during the periods 1950s-1981 and 1981-2007 was compared and discussed. The recognized calculation methods of agricultural climatic indices were employed. According to the indices of climatic regionalization for cropping systems, the national northern limits of cropping systems, winter wheat and double rice, and the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation during two periods, including the 1950s-1980 and 1981-2007, were drawn with ArcGIS software. Compared with the situation during the 1950s- 1980, the northern limits of double cropping system during 1981-2007 showed significant spatial displacement in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, and Liaoning provinces and Beijing municipality, China. The northern limits of triple cropping system showed the maximum spatial displacement in Hunan, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces, China. Without considering variety change and social economic factors, the per unit area grain yield of main planting patterns would increase about 54-106% if single cropping system was replaced by double cropping system, which turned out to be 27- 58% if double cropping system was replaced by triple cropping system. In Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Gansu, and Qinghai provinces, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia autonomous regions, China, the northern limits of winter wheat during 1981-2007 moved northward and expanded westward in different degrees, compared with those during the 1950s-1980. Taking Hebei Province as an example, the northern limits of winter wheat moved northward, and the per unit area grain yield would averagely increase about 25% in the change region if the spring wheat was replaced by winter wheat. In Zhejiang, Anhui, Hubei, and Hunan provinces, China, the planting northern limits of double rice moved northward, and the per unit area grain yield would increase in different degrees only from the perspective of heat resource. The stable- yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation moved southeastward in most regions, which was caused by the decrease of local precipitation in recent years. During the past 50 yr, climate warming made the national northern limits of cropping systems move northward in different degrees, the northern limits of winter wheat and double rice both moved northward, and the cropping system change would cause the increase of per unit area grain yield in the change region. However, the stable-yield northern limits of rainfed winter wheat-summer maize rotation moved southeastward due to the decrease of precipitation.
基金Supported by Hebei Program for Science and Technology Development~~
文摘[Objective] The aim was to study the simulation mode application in winter wheat north moving.[Method] Based on meteorological data of many years collected in north of Hebei province,and arrangement of multi-location field experiment,mode against cold was constructed considering cold-resistance characteristics of wheat.[Result] Wheat overwintering was forecasted with the help of working mode,results were verified,and the safe northern boundary for wheat overwintering in Hebei was determined in regions below dam in the south of 41°N.[Conclusion] This study provided reference for exploration of dynamic rules of wheat growth,and growth influence by environment and plant technique.
文摘北部冬麦区是我国重要的小麦主产区之一,对该麦区历年国审小麦品种进行回溯分析有助于小麦品种资源的合理利用。本研究基于产量与熟期、穗数、穗粒数、千粒重、容重、品质指数、抗病指数和抗寒指数等性状的组合,采用品种-产量×性状组合(GYT,genotype by yield×trait)双标图方法对2003-2023年期间北部冬麦区47个国审小麦品种进行了综合分析和分类评价。结果表明,47个国审小麦品种可划分为4个特征显著的品种类型。其中,Ⅰ型品种综合表现优秀,在产量与早熟性、抗病性、抗寒性、千粒重和容重等性状组合上表现突出,在产量与穗数、穗粒数和品质指数组合上表现优良,在生产上推广应用价值最高,主要包括京麦179、京农16和津麦3118等8个品种。Ⅱ型品种综合表现优良,在产量与品质指数、穗数组合上表现突出,在产量与抗病指数、抗寒指数组合上表现稍差,在生产上推广应用价值较高,但应注意生产安全,主要包括京麦202、京农19和轮选158等13个品种。Ⅲ型品种的产量与抗病和抗寒指数组合最好,但在其余性状组合上表现差,综合生产应用价值有限,可作为抗性亲本。Ⅳ型品种综合表现较差,可选择单性状表现优良的品种作为育种亲本应用。根据各品种在GYT双标图ATA轴上的投影位置,筛选出综合表现优良的京麦179、京农16、津麦3118、京麦189、京麦202、京花12号、京农19、轮选158和中麦623等品种。本研究采用GYT双标图分析方法基于“产量-性状”组合水平对北部冬麦区小麦品种进行综合评价和分类研究,为其他作物和地区的类似研究提供了参考。