Comparative study of HFACS and the 24Model accident causation models

A comparative study is conducted to compare the theory and application effect of two accident causation models, the human factors analysis and classification system（HFACS） and the accident causation ＂2-4＂ model（24 Model）, as well as to provide a reference for safety researchers and accident investigators to select an appropriate accident analysis method. The two models are compared in terms of their theoretical foundations, cause classifications, accident analysis processes, application ranges, and accident prevention strategies. A coal and gas outburst accident is then analyzed using both models, and the application results are compared. This study shows that both the 24 Model and HFACS have strong theoretical foundations, and they can each be applied in various domains. In addition, the cause classification in HFACS is more practical, and its accident analysis process is more convenient. On the other hand, the 24 Model includes external factors, which makes the cause analysis more systematic and comprehensive. Moreover, the 24 Model puts forward more corresponding measures to prevent accidents.

Cause Analysis of Consumer‑Grade UAV Accidents Based on Grounded Theory‑Bayesian Network

In order to reduce the accident rate of consumer-grade unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs)in daily use scenarios,the accident causes are analyzed based on the accident cases of consumer-grade UAVs.By extracting accident causing factors based on the Grounded theory,the relationship between these factors is analyzed.The Bayesian network for consumer-grade UAV accidents is constructed.With the Grounded theory-Bayesian network,the probability of four types of accidents is inferred:fall,air collision,disappearance,and personal injury.With the posterior probability of each factor being reversely reasoned,the causal chain with the maximum probability of each accident is obtained.After the sensitivity of each factor is analyzed,the key nodes in the network accordingly are inferred.Then the causing factors of consumer-grade UAV accidents are analyzed.The results show that the probability of fall accident is the highest,the fall accident is associated with the probabilistic maximum causal chain of personal injury,and the sensitivity analysis results of each type of accident as the result node are inconsistent.

The Tragedy of Unbalanced Personality——The Common Personality Psychological Reasons of the Destruction of Emily and Usher

A Rose for Emily is the masterpiece of William Faulkner, who is regarded as the founder of Southern literature. The Fall of the House of Usher is one of the most popular short stories written by the great American writer Edgar Allan Poe. They have common ends that the main characters of the two novels—Emily and Usher are all destruction of their unbalanced personality.This thesis will set a new point from a branch view of psychology—personality psychology to analyze the two characters Emily and Usher, how they change from pathological personality to abnormal personality, and finally destruct from flesh to soul. The deep meaning is to announce the human inner world will distract by the outside world.

Analysis of Traffic Accidents in Vietnam

Understanding the causes and solutions of road traffic accidents is important for developing road and action plans in a country. In Vietnam, awareness of traffic participants is the main cause of serious traffic accidents. In recent years, the number of road traffic accidents in Tuyen Quang province with deaths has decreased, but the number of accidents has increased significantly. The article uses data on traffic accidents in Tuyen Quang over the (2016-2023) has been analytically reviewed. From there, analyze accident characteristics and causes of traffic accidents in Tuyen Quang province, and propose solutions to improve traffic safety in Tuyen Quang, Vietnam. The findings can be information for managers and researchers interested in studying the province of Tuyen Quang, Vietnam road traffic safety. Additionally, the findings have led the government to achieve national targets in reducing the number of accidents and serious injuries.

Fatality from Road Traffic Accident in Guinea: A Retrospective Descriptive Analysis

Objectives: Causes and risk factors that result in fatal road traffic accident have not been described at the national level in Guinea yet. The goal of this study is to explore the causes and risk factors related to fatal road traffic accident, identified most vulnerable road users, and inform the road traffic prevention policy in Guinea. Methods: We made a retrospective descriptive analysis based on national fatal road traffic accident data from the Department of Health Information at the Guinean Ministry of Health for year 2011. Results: In 2011, road traffic accident was responsible for an aggregate number of 1655 deaths with an overall death rate of 15.3 per 100,000 population. Male experienced more than twice the risk of death from road traffic accidents (21.9 deaths per 100,000 population) compared with female (9.0 deaths per 100,000 population). While taking the population as a whole, the highest death rate was found among the middle aged in 35 - 49 age group accounting for (29.7 deaths per 100,000 population), followed successively by young adults age group 25 - 34 years (24.6 deaths per 100,000 population), and the middle aged in 50 - 64 age group (22.9 deaths per 100,000 population). Principally, occupants, motorcyclists and pedestrians sustained considerable burden of deaths respectively (9.2;2.9;2.2 per 100,000 population). In re-gional setting, the highest death rate was found in Upper Guinea (19.5 per 100,000 population), followed by Forest Guinea (18.7 per 100,000 population) and Middle Guinea (16.8 per 100,000 population). A large proportion of male was killed as motorcyclist than female while high per-centage of female died as occupant than male for all age group. The regional distribution showed that when a remarkable number of occupant death were observed in Upper and Forest Guinea, more people died as pedestrian and pedal cyclist in Conakry. Conclusions: This study demonstrated that most of the deaths were among occupants, motorcyclists and pedestrians, and the productive workforce aged 25 - 49 years. It was found that majority of the deaths happened in Upper Guinea followed by Forest Guinea. Improvement of roads design, strict enforcement of road safety laws and raising the awareness of general public about the causes and risks factors of road traffic accident through various channels are highly required which will promote economic growth in the local communities and then help people escape the poverty trap.

Analysis of a Lightning Strike Accident of a Rural House and Defensive Measures

A lightning strike accident of a residential house in the rural areas of Neijiang is analyzed through on-site investigation,and the causes are discussed. Defensive measures of lightning disasters are proposed to provide reference for the prevention of lightning disasters in the construction of new countryside.

Cause Analysis of Wuhan Tianheng Building Pile Accident

The geological condition and the original structure feature and foundation design of Wuhan Tianheng building are described. The accident appearance of pile foundation in the construction execution of work is illustrated. The generating source of this pile foundation accident is analyzed in great details.

ANALYSISOFOPERATIONALCAUSESOFAIRPLANETAKEOFFACCIDENTS

The possibility and causes of flight accidents by operational error/deviation in takeoff are analyzed in this paper. The following three stages are each described individually: before liftoff, near liftoff and initial climb. Relations of accident/incident causal factors by operational error with intrinsical flight mechanics are discussed.

Countermeasures for traffic accidents due to road conditions in China

Regarding the postulate of traffic infrastructure and vehicles, much attention should be given to the effect of road conditions on accidents. With large numbers of traffic accidents on Shenda Freeway, Liaoning Province, Harbin City and others in P. R. China, parameters and the effect of accidents caused by horizontal alignment, vertical alignment, cross section and intersection are studied systematically The disciplinary analysis of these effects are presented in this paper. The viewpoint is acknowledged that high sub grade and steep slopes are against traffic safety, which is common and ignored in high-usage highways in China. Design parameters of the current design criteria and the corresponding countermeasures are suggested for safety on our highways.

Statistical Data Analyses on Aircraft Accidents in Japan: Occurrences, Causes and Countermeasures

We investigate the major characteristics of the occurrences, causes of and counter measures for aircraft accidents in Japan. We apply statistical data analysis and mathematical modeling techniques to determine the relations among economic growth, aviation demand, the frequency of aircraft/helicopter accidents, the major characteristics of the occurrence intervals of accidents, and the number of fatalities due to accidents. The statistical model analysis suggests that the occurrence intervals of accidents and the number of fatalities can be explained by probability distributions such as the exponential distribution and the negative binomial distribution, respectively. We show that countermeasures for preventing accidents have been developed in every aircraft model, and thus they have contributed to a significant decrease in the number of accidents in the last three decades. We find that the major cause of accidents involving large airplanes has been weather, while accidents involving small airplanes and helicopters are mainly due to the pilot error. We also discover that, with respect to accidents mainly due to pilot error, there is a significant decrease in the number of accidents due to the aging of airplanes, whereas the number of accidents due to weather has barely declined. We further determine that accidents involving small and large airplanes mostly occur during takeoff and landing, whereas those involving helicopters are most likely to happen during flight. In order to decrease the number of accidents, i) enhancing safety and security by further developing technologies for aircraft, airports and air control radars, ii) establishing and improving training methods for crew including pilots, mechanics and traffic controllers, iii) tightening public rules, and iv) strengthening efforts made by individual aviation-related companies are absolutely necessary.

Trends and Causes of Traffic Accidents in Dubai

This paper investigates the traffic accidents＇ trends and causes in Dubai. For this purpose, the traffic accident statistics for years 2003 to 2012 are used to examine the trends of different types of accidents and the causes of these accidents. Also, the paper determines the most common types of accidents over the study period and identifies some of the causes for these accidents. Furthermore, the paper shows the impact of the new traffic law amendments, which were issued in 2008, on the accident rates and trends. The results showed that the implementation of the traffic law amendments did not have major impact in year 2008. However, there was a significant effect of these amendments in the following years. Also, lack of awareness of traffic laws and regulations in Dubai has been proven to be one of the major causes of accidents. Finally, the paper provides some recommendations to reduce the traffic accident rates, in order to achieve the Dubai Police Department 2020 strategic goal to have zero fatalities.

Disability and Related Factors among Road Traffic Accident Victims in Benin: Study from Five Public and Faith-Based Hospitals in Urban and Suburban Areas

Introduction: Road traffic accidents (RTAs) are a major public health issue in developing countries, where roads tend to be built haphazardly and accidents take a heavy toll on victims—including leaving them disabled. This study seeks to identify those factors that cause RTA victims to become disabled as a result of their injuries. Methods: This retrospective community-based study looked at RTA victims treated in five public and faith-based hospitals in Benin. Disability was evaluated using the Washington Group on Disabilities Statistics questionnaire. The independent variables were related to the victim’s socio-demographic traits, the circumstances of the accident, and post-crash response mechanisms. The proportions were compared using the chi-squared test, with a threshold of 5%. Results: The prevalence of disability among road traffic accident victims is 9.59% (CI 95%: 6.86% - 13.20%). The occurrence of disability is associated with age (p = 0.002), occupational group (p = 0.0077), the mode of transport used to transfer the victim (p p = 0.0035). The study also found that people fail to make sufficient use of post-crash response mechanisms. Conclusion: Public policy-makers should therefore focus on stepping up interventions to get more people using both protective equipment and post-crash response services.

基于Apriori算法的煤矿安全事故分析

为分析煤矿事故报告中的危险致因因素,统计分析了2018—2022年全国煤矿事故报告数据,采用Apriori关联规则算法,并利用Gephi进行关联规则可视化,探究各个致因之间的复杂关系。首先对数据进行预处理,计算词频-逆向文件频率(Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency, TF-IDF),提取了78个煤矿事故致因因素,其中人因层包括31个因素,设备层包括9个因素,管理层包括31个因素,环境层包括7个因素;然后,经过关联规则挖掘算法,得到了585条关联规则,绘制了其支持度、置信度和提升度的散点图;最后,根据Gephi生成的事故致因复杂网络图,分别分析了高支持度、高置信度和高提升度关联规则致因因素。结果表明:基于Apriori算法的煤矿事故致因分析,得到了人因层、管理层、设备层和环境层4个方面的关键致因因素;对煤矿关键致因因素进行直观、多视图的展现,有助于提高煤矿安全管理水平。

我国煤矿重特大事故统计分析及对策建议

为揭示近年来我国煤矿事故特征,有针对性地提出事故防范对策建议,首先,收集整理2013—2023年全国重特大煤矿事故,分析事故发生的年份、类型、月份、省份和原因等方面;其次,以内蒙古新井煤业“2·22”特别重大坍塌事故为例,基于“2-4”模型(24Model)分析导致事故发生的原因;最后,结合以上分析和研究结果提出符合我国现阶段煤矿安全生产形势的事故预防对策与建议。结果表明:煤矿重特大事故发生起数和死亡人数呈整体下降趋势,且进入“十二五”规划以来,我国煤矿安全生产水平明显提高;瓦斯事故仍是我国煤矿主要事故,占事故总起数的51%;每年第4季度是煤矿事故高发期,占事故总起数的30.43%;受地质条件和赋存情况影响,煤炭主要产区发生事故较多;人的不安全行为导致的事故占比高达74%;当个体层面和组织层面存在隐患且双重预防措施不到位时,易发生事故;从安全监管、科技兴安、队伍建设、安全文化等4个维度提出降低煤矿安全事故的对策建议。

基于主次屏障的化工装置事故根因分析及“双预”机制应用

双重预防机制(“双预”)是当前国内危化品领域正在广泛推行的一种风险管控系统,但目前缺乏底层和运行层面的理论架构,更缺乏以根因分析(RCA)结果来指导实施“双预”的方法工具,为此,提出“主-次”屏障理论与事件与原因因素分析(ECF)相结合的可视化主-次屏障(VPSB)模型。ECF作为一种典型的RCA技术,由特定主/次屏障失效模式组成灾害事件的致因路径,为VPSB建模提供可视化框图。应用该模型对英国石油BP公司的Texas爆炸中的典型事故场景进行隐患识别和RCA,获得“双预”相关管理措施的具体失效模式,通过与美国化学品安全委员会(CSB)和英国石油(BP)公司对该事件的调查结果对比,发现CSB和BP公司将人的不安全动作作为直接原因开展深层次的原因分析,将关注点放在了人的管理上,并将根本原因宏观地总结为安全主管失职和操作工违规作业,而VPSB模型则关注的是对重大事故隐患本身和工艺过程的管理,用描述具体的次屏障失效模式来突出管理系统存在的根本性问题,其中,在机械完整性管理上的问题最多,且主要是由于管理措施未被合规执行。这为企业优化“双预”的相关工作内容提供了重点整改方向和可操作性建议。

800 km客运班线事故特征及情景研究

为降低800 km以上客运班线事故潜在发生性,提高企业安全防控能力,研究分析了800 km以上客运班线事故典型特征,构建事故发生重要情景。基于2014—2020年800 km以上客运班线道路交通事故数据展开致因分析及事故易发情景研究。以人、路、环境为依据,选取关键特征构建了事故特征指标体系。利用决策树模型构建了安全风险模型,探索了运行时段、人因、天气状况、季度、事故发生地区、道路线形、路面状况、节假日情况、春运情况、公路技术等级和公路行政等系统关键因子与翻车、刮擦、碰撞、撞击固定物、追尾、坠车等事故形态间的潜在关系。剖析了事故发生时交通系统内人、路及环境等因素特征及形态,以此构建了800 km以上客运班线的事故易发情景。结果表明:运行时段、人因、天气状况是影响800 km以上客运班线事故发生的关键因子,且与季度、事故发生地区、道路线形、路面状况等因子存在多重耦合关系;节假日情况、春运情况、公路技术等级和公路行政等级不是影响800 km以上客运班线事故发生的关键因子。研究为降低800 km以上客运班线的事故潜在发生性及企业安全防控提供理论依据。未来,道路运输管理部门与道路运输企业应强化安全管理,规范驾驶员安全驾驶行为,普及事故易发情景下的防御性驾驶知识。

融合案例挖掘与贝叶斯网络的溃坝事故致因风险分析

为了更加深入、全面探究溃坝事故致因风险发生机理,提出了融合历史溃坝事故案例挖掘与贝叶斯网络的溃坝事故致因风险计算方法。该方法在采集国内外大量历史溃坝事故案例的基础上,采用24Model识别和提取溃坝事故致因及致因链,构建了溃坝事故致因拓扑结构,利用贝叶斯正向因果推理计算了溃坝发生概率,并结合反向诊断推理分析溃坝成因机理,基于贝叶斯敏感性分析挖掘影响溃坝关键风险因素。结果表明:在人为因素方面,闸门控制问题比例较高;在管理因素方面,施工问题、运维管理缺陷、设计问题是溃坝重要间接诱因;洪水漫顶、渗透侵蚀和渗透管涌是导致溃坝的主要风险因素。

建筑工程施工安全生产事故致因的共现特征分析

解析事故致因之间的关系图谱,厘清事故致因的共现特征,对于揭示建筑工程施工安全生产事故的发生、发展规律至关重要。收集近10年来300起典型建筑工程施工安全生产事故调查报告文本数据,通过对文本数据进行分词处理和特征项降噪,基于事故致因理论提取建筑工程施工安全生产事故致因要素;通过改进词频-逆文件频率(TF-IDF)算法,挖掘高权重事故致因关键词,构建可视化共现网络图谱,探究事故致因的共现规律;运用层次聚类分析方法,探究事故致因特征相关性,确定事故致因类团。结果表明:建筑工程施工安全生产事故致因具有显著的共现规律,部分直接致因与间接致因之间呈现出耦合共现特征,部分事故致因呈现显著的类团结构,可将共现致因联系起来作为“集群”风险进行重点防控。

基于SIF模型与Apriori算法的煤矿顶板事故致因关联分析

为更科学地预防煤矿顶板事故的发生,对煤矿顶板事故致因及其关联规则进行识别十分关键。首先,通过文本挖掘并结合SIF事故致因模型,确定56个影响顶板事故发生的致因;其次,通过构建顶板事故数据库并运用Apriori算法进行顶板事故致因关联规则挖掘;最后,绘制顶板事故致因关联规则复杂网络图,并综合分析顶板事故的核心致因及各致因间的关联规则。结果表明:安全培训教育和安全监督管理、作业人员安全意识淡薄和违反作业规程、当班管理人员在现场的管理不到位和其他事故致因之间有着很高的关联度以及提升度,这些因素是造成煤矿顶板事故发生的核心因素。

面向飞行全过程的民航事故致因关联网络分析

为提升我国民航安全水平,面向“滑行—起飞—爬升—巡航—下降—进近与着陆”的飞行全过程,提出一种基于关联规则和社会网络分析(SNA)的致因分析方法。首先,搜集中国民航安全信息系统2010—2022年共1051起民航事故案例,结合《控制航行服务程序—培训》,建立基于“人—机—环—管”的民航事故致因体系;其次,采用EasyData数据服务平台进行标注,构建面向飞行全过程的民航事故致因数据集,基于FP-Growth算法挖掘以飞行阶段为规则后项的关联规则;最后,考虑关联规则的共现频率,构建民航事故致因关联网络,开展飞行阶段与事故致因的中心性分析。结果表明:进近与着陆阶段是飞行过程中风险最大的阶段,运行失效、跑道安全事故和客舱安全事故是主要事故类型,在挖掘出的10个民航事故关键致因因素中,人为因素4个、设施设备因素2个、环境因素3个、管理因素1个。