China＇s 2012 leadership change revealed signs of factional divide at the top level. The elitist/princeling faction has outnumbered the populist faction. Princelings have better and stronger ties with the military, wh...China＇s 2012 leadership change revealed signs of factional divide at the top level. The elitist/princeling faction has outnumbered the populist faction. Princelings have better and stronger ties with the military, which tends to have a more hawkish view regarding any potential Taiwan independence. In Taiwan, changing social experiences have created a new Taiwan Residents identity, which is dif- ferent from that of the Chinese. People in Taiwan are increasingly thinking of themselves as Taiwan Residents instead of Chinese. On the mainland, Chinese popular nationalism has been on the rise, as anti-Taiwan independence remains one of the most nationalistic issues. When the forces of new identity and nationalism meet each other, a diverging path regarding the future of Taiwan is being created. Moreover, China＇s economic and military power continues to rise, giving China more confidence. I argue that the overall effect is that China＇s new leadership will increasingly have the capability to act tougher against any potential Taiwan Residents independence. The potential need to act tougher with Taiwan may be beyond the desire and control of Chinese elites due to the rise of popular nationalism in China and the leadership＇s need to maintain internal legitimacy and survival.展开更多
Uncertainty induced by the political environment affects investment risk, and thus affects investment decisions, which have a close relationship with economic development. This paper investigates the economic cost of ...Uncertainty induced by the political environment affects investment risk, and thus affects investment decisions, which have a close relationship with economic development. This paper investigates the economic cost of political instability using the case study of the tense relationship across-Strait in China. We use a synthetic control method to better model the counterfactual analysis of this case study. The intense situation of the relations across-Strait has great influence on the economic development of Fujian province. Fujian province is the closest province in proximity to Taiwan and also possesses the greatest preferential policies for Taiwan Residents direct investment. The empirical results of this study reveal that during 2001-2008 Fujian province＇s average annual loss in GDP per capita was 682.54 yuan. In other words, GDP per capita in Fujian has declined about 12.1 percent annually during this period compared with GDP per capita as calculated by the synthetic control method.展开更多
文摘China＇s 2012 leadership change revealed signs of factional divide at the top level. The elitist/princeling faction has outnumbered the populist faction. Princelings have better and stronger ties with the military, which tends to have a more hawkish view regarding any potential Taiwan independence. In Taiwan, changing social experiences have created a new Taiwan Residents identity, which is dif- ferent from that of the Chinese. People in Taiwan are increasingly thinking of themselves as Taiwan Residents instead of Chinese. On the mainland, Chinese popular nationalism has been on the rise, as anti-Taiwan independence remains one of the most nationalistic issues. When the forces of new identity and nationalism meet each other, a diverging path regarding the future of Taiwan is being created. Moreover, China＇s economic and military power continues to rise, giving China more confidence. I argue that the overall effect is that China＇s new leadership will increasingly have the capability to act tougher against any potential Taiwan Residents independence. The potential need to act tougher with Taiwan may be beyond the desire and control of Chinese elites due to the rise of popular nationalism in China and the leadership＇s need to maintain internal legitimacy and survival.
文摘Uncertainty induced by the political environment affects investment risk, and thus affects investment decisions, which have a close relationship with economic development. This paper investigates the economic cost of political instability using the case study of the tense relationship across-Strait in China. We use a synthetic control method to better model the counterfactual analysis of this case study. The intense situation of the relations across-Strait has great influence on the economic development of Fujian province. Fujian province is the closest province in proximity to Taiwan and also possesses the greatest preferential policies for Taiwan Residents direct investment. The empirical results of this study reveal that during 2001-2008 Fujian province＇s average annual loss in GDP per capita was 682.54 yuan. In other words, GDP per capita in Fujian has declined about 12.1 percent annually during this period compared with GDP per capita as calculated by the synthetic control method.
