The Influence of Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy on the Rural Residents' Consumption

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of influence of fiscal expenditure supporting agriculture monetary supply on rural residents' s consumption by adopting a vector auto-regression model,based on the data from 1978 to 2011.The study indicated that:in the short term,fiscal policy is the Granger reason of rural residents' consumption,monetary policy is not the Granger reason of rural residents' consumption;in the long term,the comprehensive function of fiscal policy and monetary policy has a great influence on the of rural residents' consumption.Under the background of Economic Transition and Urbanization,Expanding Domestic Demand is the slogan.We should coordinate fiscal policy and monetary policy to promote the rural residents' consumption.

China’s Proactive Fiscal Policy

In contrast to the traditional Western approach to macro-fiscal management,China’s proactive fiscal policy is founded on a people-centered development philosophy and,with distinctive Chinese characteristics,is a significant policy innovation of macroeconomic management in the Chinese modernization.Although there are notable distinctions between the Western“Keynesian”and the“nonKeynesian”schools of thought,both of these approaches’core policy goals and methodological roots are the same,composing the traditional Western macro-fiscal approach.This approach faces increasing real dilemmas.China’s proactive fiscal policy,however,places greater emphasis on future potential growth rates in addition to equilibrium between supply and demand,achieving a fiscal policy transformation with a new approach.In this paper we argue that with such a new approach,China should reconsider the nature and reasonable level of the fiscal deficit,the function and risk assessment criteria of government debt,the scope and effects of reductions in taxes and fees,its approach and focus of demand management,and the costs and resulting efficiencies of policies in order to develop a new fiscal policy paradigm that is more in line with its stated goals.

China’s Institutional Strength,Monetary Policy Coordination and Fiscal Crowding-in Effect

As two main tools of macroeconomic policies,coordination and conflict between fiscal and monetary policies have been paid considerable attention by researchers.Under a structural vector autoregressive model that incorporates fiscal and monetary policies,this paper analyzes the monetary policy response to fiscal shocks.Our study finds that during the occurrence of a fiscal shock,the growth rate of broad money supply M2 substantially increased,indicating the adoption of an expansionary monetary policy by the monetary authority to fiscal policy expansion.Based on this empirical finding,this paper improves the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to investigate the fiscal policy effects under China’s monetary policy coordination.Our analysis shows that monetary policy coordination will significantly boost the economic stimulus effect of fiscal policy,generating a fiscal crowding-in effect.From the perspective of China’s institutional strength,this conclusion offers a theoretical explanation on the empirical fact of the fiscal crowdingin effect uncovered in the research literature,and offers a policy reference for making the proactive fiscal policy more efficient and effective.This paper suggests that China’s policymakers give full play to the country’s institutional strength by coordinating fiscal and monetary policies for high-quality economic development.

China to Continue Proactive Fiscal Policy

China will continue to implement its proactive fiscal policy in 2011 and better handle the relations between maintaining steady and relatively fast economic development, restructuring the

The Crisis, Responsibility and Regulation

Any observer of current economic development in the world and in the Europe should ask about the causes of the current crisis situation. The authors of this article perceive current situation in the European Union and many of its member states associated with long-term developmental tendencies still less respecting the objective differences in various economic situation of the member states. Establishment and further functioning of monetary union in Europe is gradually becoming a burden for many countries, which prevents full utilization of instruments of monetary and fiscal policy by daily, and in many cases qualitative differences in the problems of economies of individual member states. The fulfillment of these tendencies in particular in the Euro Area monetary policy is confronted with the dominant position of member states in fiscal policy and in the mutual differences among member states. As considerations of differences in economic level and in member states fiscal policies, both of them are based on official figures, some of them are part of the state. In addition, EU institutions face to face to crisis they are increasingly resorting to deepening statist centralization and enter more often to the processes which are usually domains of business subjects, at most of nation states. All these trends lead to a deepening asymmetry between the decision-making processes and responsibilities for economic development and they could lead to even larger failure of national economies or at European or global level. Since the accession of the Czech Republic to the European Union in 2004 our department has dealing with issues connecting to the economic management of insurance companies and in relation to the ongoing integration process research interest is extended also to other segments of financial markets.

The Analysis of High Exchange Reserve and High National Saving in China

High resident saving and high foreign exchange reserve are the inevitable products in China during the period from planned economy to market economy, and there is high correlation between them. On the one hand, this kind of economic phenomenon can＇t persist in a long time; on the other hand, to implement relevant fiscal and monetary policy, foreign trade policy, and foreign exchange management policy to change them in view of their negative effects to present economy is one of the present economic tasks.

Rethinking the Rise of Global Central Bank Digital Currencies:A Policy Perspective

This article discusses the impact of central bank digital currency(CBDC)from the perspective of monetary and fiscal policy.We mainly discuss how retail CBDC can improve traditional policy performance.We argue that A CBDC helps existing monetary policies to break through the zero lower bound,shorten the policy time lag,realize selective policy interventions,and make possible the price level target policy system.Similarly,the combination of CBDC and smart contracts can directly affect the performance of the fiscal policy.Compared with the convenience and impact of CDBC as a medium of exchange,its impact as a policy tool is more profound.The current monetary policy is facing a zero lower bound.The fiscal policy is facing a huge sovereign debt crisis and the impact of other private digital currencies on fiat money,which makes the importance of CBDC as a new policy tool more prominent.However,the research on CBDC as a policy tool has many fundamental questions that remain to be answered.This paper contextualizes CBDC with global challenges in policies and new technology advances,and the authors rethink CBDC from a policy perspective,which may provide many new thoughts and have implications for the rise of global CBDC.

Loose fiscal,tight monetary policies suit future restructuring

Various statistical and theoretical analyses indicate that China will face a more difficult and complex international environment in the upcoming post-crisis era.China's economy has come to a point where restructuring,which has been an important area of research,is inevitable.This paper looks first at the three symptoms of an unreasonable economic structure and their roots from institutional and development strategy aspects.It concludes that China's basic economic restructuring policies should be oriented toward a loose fiscal policy and a moderately tight monetary policy on the basis of deepening institutional reform.

Proactive Fiscal Policy:An Analysis of the Current Situation and Trends

The sustainability of the proactive or expansionary fiscal policy adopted by China since 1998, or the transformation of the proactive fiscal policy, has received great attention domestically and internationally. This paper summarizes the current situation and future trend of China’s proactive fiscal policy from four aspects.

Effects of Proactive Fiscal Policy in the Context of Supply-Side Structural Reform:On the Choice of Anchors for Monetary Policy

By constructing a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model that embeds structural fiscal policy and contains two types of households,labor intermediaries,manufacturers,the central bank,and fiscal departments,and based on China's macroeconomic controls that combine proactive fiscal policy with prudent monetary policy in the context of supply-side structural reform,this paper compares and analyzes the macroeconomic effects of the various types of proactive fiscal policy instruments,and measures the impact of the choice of anchors for monetary policy on the long-term welfare loss caused by the various fiscal policy instruments.This study finds that the consumption-oriented fiscal expenditure increase and labor income tax reduction policies have the most significant macroeconomic stimulus effects in the short term,but attention should be paid to the disadvantage that they may lead to the rise of government debt risks;and in the long term,the role of production-oriented fiscal expenditure policies in guaranteeing the stable operations of China's economy should be brought into play.In addition,once the implementation of proactive fiscal policy lasts for too long,their long-term effects may be weakened,with negative macroeconomic impacts.In order to mitigate the resulting long-term economic fluctuations and welfare loss,prudent monetary policy should be fine-tuned with price stability as the anchor.

Review,Experience Summary and Prospect of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination Paradigm in the 70 Years of People’s Republic of China

Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China,China has made remarkable achievements and already has had objective conditions for moving towards high-quality development.Under different development stages and policy objectives,there are differences in the regulation effects of fiscal policies and monetary policies.In order to achieve economic growth and price stability,China’s fiscal and monetary policies have undergone various switches.This paper first reviews collocation models of China’s fiscal and monetary policies in the past 70 years,and summarizes their features,including fl exibility,dislcetionary regulation,demand management,and tool diversity.Then,it points out the deficiencies in regulation through fiscal and monetary policies,such as conflict of multiple goals,delayed or mismatched effects,marginal decrease in economic effects,and offset of policy effects.At last,the paper puts forth the possible innovation in combination paradigm,expectation management,supply-demand synergy,and instrumental coordination,and points out the direction of coordination paradigms.

Mix of Fiscal and Monetary Policy Rules and Inflation Dynamics in China

The present paper examines the role of the mix of fiscal and monetary policy rules in determining inflation dynamics using fiscal and monetary policy reaction func.tions and Markov-switching vector autoregression methods based on quarterly data in the period 1992-2007. Our results show that fiseal and monetary policies in China can be adequately described using some simple rules, and that significant regime shifts took plaee around 1998. Fiscal policy tended to be active and countereyclical in the pre-1998 period, then switched to be passive and more eountercyclical, whereas monetary policy was characterized as passive and procyclical in the pre-1998 period, and switched to be active and countercyclical afterwards. The mix of fiscal and monetary policy rules can explain inflation dynamics better than the monetary policy rule alone. Therefore, price stability requires not only appropriate monetary policy but also appropriate fiseal policy.

Mixed Monetary-Fiscal Policies and Macroeconomic Fluctuations:An Analysis Based on the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

The existing literature on macroeconomic policy research is mainly concerned with the impact of a single monetary or fiscal policy on China 5 macroeconomic fluctuations in a closed economy.However,the effect of a mix of monetary and fiscal policies has been neglected.This paper addresses this issue with an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model.It applies impulse-response and welfare analyses to explore the stabilization effect of various mixes of monetary and fiscal policies.The results show that the optimal monetary policy and fiscal policy mix varies in different cases.When government spending shocks happen,the aggressive fiscal policy and passive monetary policy would be the best choice.In contrast,for domestic interest rate shocks,foreign interest rate shocks,and foreign consumption shocks,the passive fiscal policy and aggressive monetary policy are more applicable.This article explains China's economic fluctuations and highlights the importance of mix of monetary and fiscal policies in the face of different shocks.

Proactive Fiscal Policy:The New Logic of China's Practice

China’s proactive fiscal policy adheres to the development ideology centered around the people and differs from the traditional Western logic of macro-fiscal policy.It bears distinct Chinese characteristics and represents a significant macroeconomic governance policy innovation in China’s process of modernization.Despite the considerable differences between the perspectives of the Keynesian tradition and the non-Keynesian tradition,their policy objectives and methodological foundations are broadly similar,constituting the traditional Western logic of macro-fiscal policy.Currently,this logic is facing increasing practical challenges.In contrast,China’s proactive fiscal policy not only aims to restore supply-demand balance and potential growth levels but also emphasizes enhancing future potential growth rates,marking a transformation from the traditional Western logic to a new logic.It is essential to emphasize that under this new logic,forming a new fiscal policy paradigm requires a reevaluation of the nature and appropriate scale of fiscal deficits,the role and risk measurement standards of government debt,the space and effectiveness of reduction of taxes and administrative fees,demand management methods and priorities,as well as policy costs and efficiency,among other fundamental categories.

Money Quantity and Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy： A Quantitative Analysis

This paper quantitatively analyzes the impact of money stock on optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a stochastic production economy with sticky prices. The numerical results indicate that a sufficient large quantity of money makes a noticeable difference in many aspects of optimal monetary and fiscal policy. They suggest that the volatile inflation in China may not be as bad as the existing theory would have implied if its large amount of money is taken into consideration.

Rethinking China's Macroeconomic Policy

Six years have passed since the global financial crisis began.Yet,mainstream economists are still far from reaching a consensus on a framework for restructuring macroeconomic policy.In April 2013,many top scholars attended the International Monetary Fund's(IMF) second conference on "Rethinking Macro Policy".During the conference,the following basic assessments with respect to macroeconomic policy were reached:economists and policy-makers have entered a "brave new world" where they face more problems than effective solutions and the image of a new macroeconomic policy framework remains opaque.Based on discussions at the conference and the dissertations of important scholars over recent years,this paper provides a systematic review of the reflections of mainstream economic academia regarding the restructuring of a macroeconomic policy framework,with a view to providing an orientation to China s ongoing reform of macroeconomic regulation.

结构性需求冲击、政策独立性与财政货币政策协调机制研究

结构性需求冲击非对称地影响不同生产部门产品需求。本文研究此类负向冲击下,财政货币政策如何实施及配合才能实现“稳就业、促消费”目标。本文建立了区分直接和未直接受冲击部门的DSGE模型,考察财政货币政策工具及政策协调机制的有效性。结果表明:政府消费和对企业补贴适用于稳定就业;对家庭转移支付和降低个人所得税适用于促进消费;利率工具比法定存准率工具更有效。保持货币政策独立性有利于财政货币政策组合发挥作用。

国债管理:财政政策与货币政策协调配合的关键点

国债兼具财政和金融功能,是财政政策与货币政策互动最为频繁活跃的领域,而货币政策的立场和操作也会直接影响赤字融资的来源与成本。因此,国债管理是两大政策协调配合的关键切入点。鉴于财政政策与货币政策配合的国际经验,针对我国政策协调配合中面临的挑战,我国应根据经济形势适时调整宏观政策调控机制;推动央行开展公开市场买卖国债;稳步推进国债市场的国际化建设;完善债务约束机制,科学设置债务上限;优化国库现金与央行流动性管理;积极发挥财政部在债务管理与国债市场建设中的主导作用,建立统一高效的政府债券市场;协同健全国债收益率曲线,共同推动曲线深入应用;进一步加强以国债为基础的金融市场流动性机制安排;在更高层面确立财政政策与货币政策的协调机制;保持两大政策部门更为畅通的信息交流。

财政政策、货币政策与高质量就业——基于TVP-SV-VAR模型的动态分析

更加充分、更高质量的就业是实现经济高质量发展的应有之义。文章采用中国2000—2021年的季度时间序列数据,基于时变参数向量自回归(TVP-SV-VAR)模型,实证检验财政政策与货币政策对就业质量的时变及动态影响。研究发现:落实减税降费政策、优化财政支出结构在短期和中长期均有效地促进了高质量就业。面对国际金融危机冲击时,财政政策在短期内实现了对就业质量的保障,而在长期内政策效果受到削弱,这说明高质量就业的实现并非“斯须之作”。数量型货币政策对就业质量的调节作用较为平稳,其影响具有滞后性,而价格型工具更能有效熨平外部冲击对就业质量的影响。相较货币政策,财政政策对就业质量的调控具有更强的拉动作用与抗冲击能力。

积极的财政政策:以提质增效支撑适度加力

2023年中央经济工作会议要求积极的财政政策要适度加力和提质增效并行,意味着当前积极的财政政策实施进入了新阶段。积极的财政政策适度加力的必要性在于应对基本民生保障资金需求扩张刚性渐强的局面,以及经济稳增长需要加大宏观调控力度,充分运用财政政策解决内需收缩和结构失衡问题。提质增效是积极的财政政策的转型方向,只有提质增效才能最终落实适度加力。积极的财政政策适度加力和提质增效与谋划新一轮财税体制改革具有相辅相成的关系。健全现代预算制度和深化政府收入制度改革是新一轮财税体制改革的两大重点内容。健全现代预算制度主要包括继续推进全面实施预算绩效管理、加强财政支出标准体系建设和推进转移支付制度改革三方面内容,政府收入制度改革则重在深化税制改革。