Reliability analysis of carbon fiber rod-reinforced umbilical cable under tension using an improved sampling method

The umbilical cable is a vital component of subsea production systems that provide power,chemical agents,control signals et al.,and its requirement for reliability is exceedingly high.However,as the umbilical cable is a composite structure comprising multiple functional units,the reliability analysis of such cables involves numerous parameters that can impact calculation efficiency.In this paper,the reliability analysis of a new kind of umbilical cable with carbon fiber rod under tension is analyzed.The global dynamic analytical model is first established to determine the maximum tension load,then the local analytical model of umbilical cable including each unit are constructed by finite element method(FEM).Based on the mechanical analytical model,the reliability of umbilical cable under tension load is studied using response surface method(RSM)and Monte Carlo method.During the calculation process,a new tangent plane sampling method to calculate the response surface function(RSF)is proposed in this paper,which could make sampling points faster come close to the RSF curve,and it is proved that the calculation efficiency increases about 33%comparing with traditional method.

Generalized response displacement methods for seismic analysis of underground structures with complex cross section

The response displacement method(RDM)is recommended for the seismic analysis of underground structures in the transverse direction for many codes,including bases for design of structures-seismic actions for designing geotechnical works(ISO 23469)and code for seismic design of urban rail transit structures(GB 50909-2014).However,there are some obvious limitations in the application of RDM.Springs and the shear stress of the soil could be approximately evaluated for the structures having a simple cross section,such as rectangular and circular structures.It is necessary to propose simplified seismic analysis methods for structures with complex cross sections.This paper refers to the idea of RDM and proposes three generalized response displacement methods(GRDM).In GRDM1,a part of the soil surrounding a structure is selected to generate a generalized underground structure with a rectangular cross section,and the same analysis model as RDM is applied to analyze the responses of the structure.In GRDM2,a hollow soil model without a generalized structure is used to compute the equivalent load caused by the relative displacement of the soil,and the soil-structure interaction model is applied to calculate the responses of the structure.In GRDM3,a continuous soil model is applied to compute the equivalent load caused by the relative displacement and shear stress of the soil,and the soil-structure interaction model is applied to analyze the responses of the structure,which is the same as the model used in GRDM2.The time-history analysis method(THAM)is used to evaluate the accuracy of the proposed simplified methods.Results show that the error of GRDM1 is about 20%,while the error is only 5%for GRDM2 and GRDM3.Among the three proposed methods,GRDM3 has obvious advantages regarding calculation efficiency and accuracy.Therefore,it is recommended to use GRDM3 for the seismic response analysis of underground structures that have conventional simple or complex cross sections.

Numerical analysis of multicomponent responses of surface-hole transient electromagnetic method

We calculate the multicomponent responses of surface-hole transient electromagnetic method. The methods and models are unsuitable as geoelectric models of conductive surrounding rocks because they are based on regular local targets. We also propose a calculation and analysis scheme based on numerical simulations of the subsurface transient electromagnetic fields. In the modeling of the electromagnetic fields, the forward modeling simulations are performed by using the finite-difference time-domain method and the discrete image method, which combines the Gaver–Stehfest inverse Laplace transform with the Prony method to solve the initial electromagnetic fields. The precision in the iterative computations is ensured by using the transmission boundary conditions. For the response analysis, we customize geoelectric models consisting of near-borehole targets and conductive wall rocks and implement forward modeling simulations. The observed electric fields are converted into induced electromotive force responses using multicomponent observation devices. By comparing the transient electric fields and multicomponent responses under different conditions, we suggest that the multicomponent-induced electromotive force responses are related to the horizontal and vertical gradient variations of the transient electric field at different times. The characteristics of the response are determined by the varying the subsurface transient electromagnetic fields, i.e., diffusion, attenuation and distortion, under different conditions as well as the electromagnetic fields at the observation positions. The calculation and analysis scheme of the response consider the surrounding rocks and the anomalous field of the local targets. It therefore can account for the geological data better than conventional transient field response analysis of local targets.

Exceeding probability analysis for rail of high-speed railway under seismic excitations

Purpose–The smoothness of the high-speed railway(HSR)on the bridge may exceed the allowable standard when an earthquake causes vibrations for HSR bridges,which may threaten the safety of running trains.Indeed,few studies have evaluated the exceeding probability of rail displacement exceeding the allowable standard.The purposes of this article are to provide a method for investigating the exceeding probability of the rail displacement of HSRs under seismic excitation and to calculate the exceeding probability.Design/methodology/approach–In order to investigate the exceeding probability of the rail displacement under different seismic excitations,the workflow of analyzing the smoothness of the rail based on incremental dynamic analysis(IDA)is proposed,and the intensity measure and limit state for the exceeding probability analysis of HSRs are defined.Then a finite element model(FEM)of an assumed HSR track-bridge system is constructed,which comprises a five-span simply-supported girder bridge supporting a finite length CRTS II ballastless track.Under different seismic excitations,the seismic displacement response of the rail is calculated;the character of the rail displacement is analyzed;and the exceeding probability of the rail vertical displacement exceeding the allowable standard(2mm)is investigated.Findings–The results show that:(1)The bridge-abutment joint position may form a step-like under seismic excitation,threatening the running safety of high-speed trains under seismic excitations,and the rail displacements at mid-span positions are bigger than that at other positions on the bridge.(2)The exceeding probability of rail displacement is up to about 44%when PGA 50.01g,which is the level-five risk probability and can be described as’very likely to happen’.(3)The exceeding probability of the rail at the mid-span positions is bigger than that above other positions of the bridge,and the mid-span positions of the track-bridge system above the bridge may be the most hazardous area for the running safety of trains under seismic excitation when high-speed trains run on bridges.Originality/value–The work extends the seismic hazardous analysis of HSRs and would lead to a better understanding of the exceeding probability for the rail of HSRs under seismic excitations and better references for the alert of the HSR operation.

Long-term deformation analysis of Shuibuya concrete face rockfill dam based on response surface method and improved genetic algorithm

Due to the size effects of rockfill materials, the settlement difference between numerical simulation and in situ monitoring of rockfill dams is a topic of general concern.The constitutive model parameters obtained from laboratory triaxial tests often underestimate the deformation of high rockfill dams.Therefore, constitutive model parameters obtained by back analysis were used to calculate and predict the long-term deformation of rockfill dams.Instead of using artificial neural networks (ANNs), the response surface method (RSM) was employed to replace the finite element simulation used in the optimization iteration.Only 27 training samples were required for RSM, improving computational efficiency compared with ANN, which required 300 training samples.RSM can be used to describe the relationship between the constitutive model parameters and dam settlements.The inversion results of the Shuibuya concrete face rockfill dam (CFRD) show that the calculated settlements agree with the measured data, indicating the accuracy and efficiency of RSM.

Interval analysis method and convex models for impulsive response of structures with uncertain-but-bounded external loads

Two non-probabilistic, set-theoretical methods for determining the maximum and minimum impulsive responses of structures to uncertain-but-bounded impulses are presented. They are, respectively, based on the theories of interval mathematics and convex models. The uncertain-but-bounded impulses are assumed to be a convex set, hyper-rectangle or ellipsoid. For the two non-probabilistic methods, less prior information is required about the uncertain nature of impulses than the probabilistic model. Comparisons between the interval analysis method and the convex model, which are developed as an anti-optimization problem of finding the least favorable impulsive response and the most favorable impulsive response, are made through mathematical analyses and numerical calculations. The results of this study indicate that under the condition of the interval vector being determined from an ellipsoid containing the uncertain impulses, the width of the impulsive responses predicted by the interval analysis method is larger than that by the convex model; under the condition of the ellipsoid being determined from an interval vector containing the uncertain impulses, the width of the interval impulsive responses obtained by the interval analysis method is smaller than that by the convex model.

Joint probability density function of the stochastic responses of nonlinear structures

The joint probability density fimction （PDF） of different structural responses is a very important topic in the stochastic response analysis of nonlinear structures. In this paper, the probability density evolution method, which is successfully developed to capture the instantaneous PDF of an arbitrary single response of interest, is extended to evaluate the joint PDF of any two responses. A two-dimensional partial differential equation in terms of the joint PDF is established. The strategy of selecting representative points via the number theoretical method and sieved by a hyper-ellipsoid is outlined. A two-dimensional difference scheme is developed. The free vibration of an SDOF system is examined to verify the proposed method, and a flame structure exhibiting hysteresis subjected to stochastic ground motion is investigated. It is pointed out that the correlation of different responses results from the fact that randomness of different responses comes from the same set of basic random parameters involved. In other words, the essence of the probabilistic correlation is a physical correlation.

Effective stress analysis method of seismic response for high tailings dam

Based on the analysis method for tailings dam in upstream raising method presently used in metallurgy and nonferrous metals tailings depository in the world, an effective stress analysis method of seismic response for high tailings dam was developed according to the results of engineering geological exploration, static and dynamic test and stability analysis on Baizhishan tailing dam 113.5 m high. The law of generation, diffusion and dissipation of seismic pore water pressure during and after earthquake was investigated, and the results of tailings dam’s acceleration, seismic dynamic stress and pore water pressure were obtained. The results show that the seismic stability and liquefaction resistance of high tailings dam are strengthened remarkably, and the scope and depth of liquefaction area at the top of dam are reduced greatly. The interior stress is compressive stress, the stress level of every element is less than 1.0 and the safety coefficient of every element is greater than 1.0. The safety coefficient against liquefaction of every element of tailing dam is greater than 1.5 according to the effective stress analysis of seismic response by finite element method. The calculated results prove that liquefaction is the main reason of seismic failure of high tailing dams, and the effect of seismic inertia forces on high tailing dams’ stability during earthquake is secondary reason.

Probability Analysis for the Damage of Gravity Dam

Damage reliability analysis is an emerging field of structural engineering which is very significant in structures of great importance like arch dams, large concrete gravity dams etc. The research objective is to design and construct an improved method for damage reliability analysis for concrete gravity dam. Firstly, pseudo excitation method and Mazar damage model were used to analyze how to calculate damage expected value excited by random seismic loading and deterministic static load on the condition that initial elastic modulus was deterministic. Moreover, response surface method was improved from the aspects of the regression of sample points, the selection of experimental points, the determined method of weight matrix and the calculation method of checking point respectively. Then, the above method was used to analyze guarantee rate of damage expected value excited by random seismic loading and deterministic static load on the condition that initial elastic modulus was random. Finally, a test example was given to verify and analyze the convergence and stability of this method. Compared with other conventional algorithm, this method has some strong points: this algorithm has good convergence and stability and greatly enhances calculation efficiency and the storage efficiency. From what has been analyzed, we find that damage expected value is insensitive to the randomness of initial elastic modulus so we can neglect the randomness of initial elastic modulus in some extent when we calculate damage expected value.

Optimization of the gas separation performance of polyurethane–zeolite 3A and ZSM-5 mixed matrix membranes using response surface methodology

In the present work, the response surface method software was used with five measurement levels with three factors.These were applied for the optimization of operating parameters that affected gas separation performance of polyurethane–zeolite 3A, ZSM-5 mixed matrix membranes.The basis of the experiments was a rotatable central composite design(CCD).The three independent variables studied were: zeolite content(0–24 wt%), operating temperature(25–45 ℃) and operating pressure(0.2–0.1 MPa).The effects of these three variables on the selectivity and permeability membranes were studied by the analysis of variance(ANOVA).Optimal conditions for the enhancement of gas separation performances of polyurethane–3A zeolite were found to be 18 wt%, 30 ℃ and 0.8 MPa respectively.Under these conditions, the permeabilities of carbon dioxide, methane, oxygen and nitrogen gases were measured at 138.4, 22.9, 15.7 and 6.4 Barrer respectively while the CO_2/CH_4, CO_2/N_2 and O_2/N_2 selectivities were 5.8, 22.5 and 2.5, respectively.Also, the optimal conditions for improvement of the gas separation performance of polyurethane–ZSM 5 were found to be 15.64 wt%, 30 ℃ and 4 bar.The permeabilities of these four gases(i.e.carbon dioxide, methane, oxygen and nitrogen) were 164.7, 21.2, 21.5 and 8.1 Barrer while the CO_2/CH_4, CO_2/N_2 and O_2/N_2 selectivities were 7.8, 20.6 and 2.7 respectively.

Stochastic response analysis of noisy system with non-negative real-power restoring force by generalized cell mapping method

The stochastic response of a noisy system with non-negative restoring force is investigated. The generalized cell mapping （GCM） method compute the transient and stationary probability density functions （PDFs） real-power is used to Combined with the global properties of the noise-free system, the evolutionary process of the tran- sient PDFs is revealed. The results show that stochastic P-bifurcation occurs when the system parameter varies in the response analysis and the stationary PDF evolves from bimodal to unimodal along the unstable manifold during the bifurcation.

Perturbation Analysis of the Attached Water Mass Effect on Offshore Platform Dynamic Response

Theoretically speaking, it is impossible to make the differential equation of motion uncoupled for the natural modes of a system in consideration of the attached water. The hydro-elastic structure is equal to the non-proportional damping system. In this paper a perturbation analysis method is put forward. The structure motion equation is strictly solved mathematically, and the non-proportional damping problem is transformed into a series of proportional damping ones in the superposition form. The paper also presents the calculation formula of the dynamic response of the structure being subjected to harmonic and arbitrary load. The convergence of the proposed method is also studied in this paper, and the corresponding convergence conditions are given. Finally, the proposed method is used to analyze the displacement response of a real offshore platform. The calculation results show that this method has the characteristics of high accuracy and fast convergence.

Evaluation of the Method Based on Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism Analysis as Simple Analysis Method of Lactic Acid Bacteria in Foods

Lactic acid bacteria have not only been used to produce various kinds of fermented food, but also used as probiotic products. As lactic acid bacterial group was consisted from diverse genera, a simple inspection method by which numbers and contained microorganisms could be automatically analyzed without any preliminary information was required to use them more effectively. In this manuscript, lactic acid bacterial groups in commercial products of kimuchi, komekouji-miso, and yoghurt were identified and enumerated by our newly developed method [1]-[3], to evaluate whether the method could be used as an inspection method of various food samples. In kimuchi, numerically dominant bacteria were Lactobacillus sakei, and L. casei (1.4 × 104 MPN g-1) and Leuconostoc spp. (l.4 × 104 MPN). In kouji-miso, numerically dominant bacteria was Bacillus spp. (3 × 103 MPN), which mainly included B. subtilis group and B. cereus group. Lactic acid bacteria such as Lactobacillus spp., or Lactococcus spp., included in the komekouji-miso, could be enumerated after 3 days incubation (1.24 × 104 MPN), but not detected after 7 days incubation. In yoghurt A and C, Lactococcus lactis was detected as numerically dominant lactic acid bacteria (3.0 × 105 MPN). In yoghurt B, Lactobacillus spp., or Lactococcus spp., was detected not only by a culturebased method but also by an unculture-based method, although there was a difference between the both estimated numbers. The present results suggested that the method might become useful as a simple inspection method of food microorganisms, because time and labor of the analysis could be reduced by using an unculture-based method and MCE-202 MultiNA. In this study, Bifidobacteriium spp. was not detected in B and C yoghurt, in spite of indicating their existence, and numbers of lactic acid bacteria were lower than the level of the daily product regulation, because 16S rDNA of Bifidobacteriium spp. might not be amplified by the used PCR condition. The PCR condition must be changed so as to amplify Bifidobacterium spp., before the method will be used as an inspection method for lactic acid bacteria.

Dynamic optimization analysis of hydraulic pipeline system based on a developed response surface method

When designing a complex pipeline with long distance and multi-supports for offshore platform,it is necessary to analyze the vibration characteristics of the complex pipeline system to ensure that there is no harmful resonance in the working conditions.Therefore,the optimal layout of support is an effective method to reduce the vibration response of hydraulic pipeline system.In this paper,a developed dynamic optimization method for the complex pipeline is proposed to investigate the vibration characteristics of complex pipeline with multi-elastic supports.In this method,the Kriging response surface model between the support position and pipeline is established.The position of the clamp in the model is parameterized and the optimal solution of performance index is obtained by genetic algorithm.The number of clamps and the interval between clamps are considered as the constraints of layout optimization,and the optimization objective is the natural frequencies of pipeline.Taking a typical offshore pipeline as example to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method,the results show that the vibration performance of the hydraulic pipeline system is distinctly improved by the optimization procedure,which can provide reasonable guidance for the design of complex hydraulic pipeline system.

A new method of formation evaluation for fractured and caved carbonate reservoirs:A case study from the Lundong area,Tarim Basin,China

The carbonate reservoirs in the Tarim Basin are characterized by low matrix-porosity,heterogeneity and anisotropy,which make it difficult to predict and evaluate these reservoirs.The reservoir formations in Lundong area experienced a series of diagenesis and tectonic evolution stages.And secondary storage spaces such as fractures and dissolution caves were developed while nearly all the primary pores have disappeared.Based on a summary of different types of storage spaces and their responses in conventional logs,FMI and full waveform sonic logs which are sensitive to different reservoirs,the comprehensive probability index （CPI） method is applied to evaluating the reservoirs and a standard of reservoir classification is established.By comparing the evaluation results with actual welllogging results,the method has proven to be practical for formation evaluation of carbonate reservoirs,especially for the fractured carbonate reservoirs.In reservoir fluid identification,the multivariate stepwise discriminant analysis （MSDA） method is introduced.Combining the CPI method and MSDA method,comprehensive formation evaluation has been performed for fractured and caved carbonate reservoirs in the Tarim Basin.Additionally,on the basis of secondary pore inversion results,another new method of formation evaluation is also proposed in the discussion part of this paper.Through detailed application result analysis,the method shows a promising capability for formation evaluation of complex carbonate reservoirs dominated by various secondary pores such as holes,caves,and cracks.

Finite element response sensitivity analysis of three-dimensional soil-foundation-structure interaction (SFSI) systems

The nonlinear finite element（FE） analysis has been widely used in the design and analysis of structural or geotechnical systems.The response sensitivities（or gradients） to the model parameters are of significant importance in these realistic engineering problems.However the sensitivity calculation has lagged behind,leaving a gap between advanced FE response analysis and other research hotspots using the response gradient.The response sensitivity analysis is crucial for any gradient-based algorithms,such as reliability analysis,system identification and structural optimization.Among various sensitivity analysis methods,the direct differential method（DDM） has advantages of computing efficiency and accuracy,providing an ideal tool for the response gradient calculation.This paper extended the DDM framework to realistic complicated soil-foundation-structure interaction（SFSI） models by developing the response gradients for various constraints,element and materials involved.The enhanced framework is applied to three-dimensional SFSI system prototypes for a pilesupported bridge pier and a pile-supported reinforced concrete building frame structure,subjected to earthquake loading conditions.The DDM results are verified by forward finite difference method（FFD）.The relative importance（RI） of the various material parameters on the responses of SFSI system are investigated based on the DDM response sensitivity results.The FFD converges asymptotically toward the DDM results,demonstrating the advantages of DDM（e.g.,accurate,efficient,insensitive to numerical noise）.Furthermore,the RI and effects of the model parameters of structure,foundation and soil materials on the responses of SFSI systems are investigated by taking advantage of the sensitivity analysis results.The extension of DDM to SFSI systems greatly broaden the application areas of the d gradient-based algorithms,e.g.FE model updating and nonlinear system identification of complicated SFSI systems.

Response surface method using grey relational analysis for decision making in weapon system selection

A proper weapon system is very important for a na- tional defense system. Generally, it means selecting the optimal weapon system among many alternatives, which is a multiple- attribute decision making （MADM） problem. This paper proposes a new mathematical model based on the response surface method （RSM） and the grey relational analysis （GRA）. RSM is used to obtain the experimental points and analyze the factors that have a significant impact on the selection results. GRA is used to an- alyze the trend relationship between alternatives and reference series. And then an RSM model is obtained, which can be used to calculate all alternatives and obtain ranking results. A real world application is introduced to illustrate the utilization of the model for the weapon selection problem. The results show that this model can be used to help decision-makers to make a quick comparison of alternatives and select a proper weapon system from multiple alternatives, which is an effective and adaptable method for solving the weapon system selection problem.

Advanced response surface method for mechanical reliability analysis

Based on the classical response surface method （RSM）, a novel RSM using improved experimental points （EPs） is presented for reliability analysis. Two novel points are included in the presented method. One is the use of linear interpolation, from which the total EPs for determining the RS are selected to be closer to the actual failure surface; the other is the application of sequential linear interpolation to control the distance be- tween the surrounding EPs and the center EP, by which the presented method can ensure that the RS fits the actual failure surface in the region of maximum likelihood as the center EPs converge to the actual most probable point （MPP）. Since the fitting precision of the RS to the actual failure surface in the vicinity of the MPP, which has significant contribution to the probability of the failure surface being exceeded, is increased by the presented method, the precision of the failure probability calculated by RS is increased as well. Numerical examples illustrate the accuracy and efficiency of the presented method.

Comparative Study on Response Surfaces for Reliability Analysis of Spatially Variable Soil Slope

This paper focuses on the performance of the second-order polynomial-based response surfaces on the reliability of spatially variable soil slope. A single response surface constructed to approximate the slope system failure performance function G（X） （called single RS） and multiple response surfaces constructed on finite number of slip surfaces （called multiple RS） are developed, respectively. Single RS and multiple RS are applied to evaluate the system failure probability pf for a cohesive soil slope together with Monte Carlo simulation （MCS）. It is found thatpe calculated by single RS deviates significantly from that obtained by searching a large number of potential slip surfaces, and this deviation becomes insignificant with the decrease of the number of random variables or the increase of the scale of fluctuation. In other words, single RS cannot approximate G（X） with reasonable accuracy. The value of pc from multiple response surfaces fits well with that obtained by searching a large number of potential slip surfaces. That is, multiple RS can estimate G（X） with reasonable accuracy.

Orthogonal expansion of ground motion and PDEM-based seismic response analysis of nonlinear structures

This paper introduces an orthogonal expansion method for general stochastic processes. In the method, a normalized orthogonal function of time variable t is first introduced to carry out the decomposition of a stochastic process and then a correlated matrix decomposition technique, which transforms a correlated random vector into a vector of standard uncorrelated random variables, is used to complete a double orthogonal decomposition of the stochastic processes. Considering the relationship between the Hartley transform and Fourier transform of a real-valued function, it is suggested that the first orthogonal expansion in the above process is carried out using the Hartley basis function instead of the trigonometric basis function in practical applications. The seismic ground motion is investigated using the above method. In order to capture the main probabilistic characteristics of the seismic ground motion, it is proposed to directly carry out the orthogonal expansion of the seismic displacements. The case study shows that the proposed method is feasible to represent the seismic ground motion with only a few random variables. In the second part of the paper, the probability density evolution method （PDEM） is employed to study the stochastic response of nonlinear structures subjected to earthquake excitations. In the PDEM, a completely uncoupled one-dimensional partial differential equation, the generalized density evolution equation, plays a central role in governing the stochastic seismic responses of the nonlinear structure. The solution to this equation will yield the instantaneous probability density function of the responses. Computational algorithms to solve the probability density evolution equation are described. An example, which deals with a nonlinear frame structure subjected to stochastic ground motions, is illustrated to validate the above approach.