In this paper, we take Guizhou Province (the heart of southwestern Karst region in China) as the research object. By establishing gray forecasting model and time series forecasting model, we conduct the accuracy test ...In this paper, we take Guizhou Province (the heart of southwestern Karst region in China) as the research object. By establishing gray forecasting model and time series forecasting model, we conduct the accuracy test on the actual production capacity of land and the forecasted production capacity of land in 2007 and 2008, and then conduct comprehensive forecast of the land production potential in Guizhou Province in 2020. On this basis, considering the nutritional standards needed by three kinds of life type (dressing warmly and eating one's fill, well-off life, relatively affluent life), we evaluate the land production potential in Guizhou Province under the project of returning farmland to forest. Based on the evaluation results, we put forth the relevant recommendations for achieving sustainable land use in the context of returning farmland to forest in Guizhou Province.展开更多
全球气候变化是当前关注的热点问题,研究气候情景下中国典型开垦与退耕区耕地动态变化对保障中国粮食安全具有重要意义。该研究以东北地区作为典型区,基于设计的土地利用规划情景和RCPs(representative concentration pathways)气候情景...全球气候变化是当前关注的热点问题,研究气候情景下中国典型开垦与退耕区耕地动态变化对保障中国粮食安全具有重要意义。该研究以东北地区作为典型区,基于设计的土地利用规划情景和RCPs(representative concentration pathways)气候情景,采用土地利用变化动态(DLS,dynamics of land system)模型模拟了在规划情景和RCPs气候情景下开垦与退耕区2010-2030年耕地的空间分布格局,分析不同耕地类型未来的变化趋势。研究结果表明:规划情景下水田呈持续减少的态势,而旱田在2000-2010年有小幅增长的态势,而后出现大面积减少;AIM(Asia-Pacific integrated model)气候模式情景下旱田增长趋势也较明显,水田则保持小幅减少的态势;MESSAGE(model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their general environmental impact)气候模式情景下,耕地面积呈减少的态势。从不同用地类型之间的转移分析得出,该区域开垦与退耕相逆的现象在未来情景下仍会延续,但是发生的频率却随时间的推移逐渐降低。该研究为开垦与退耕区应对气候变化,合理进行农业规划和耕地保护提供参考。展开更多
基金Supported by 2009 Youth Project of Social Science Planning in Guizhou Province (09GHQNHQ04)Agricultural Scientific and Technological Project in Guizhou Province (20103014)
文摘In this paper, we take Guizhou Province (the heart of southwestern Karst region in China) as the research object. By establishing gray forecasting model and time series forecasting model, we conduct the accuracy test on the actual production capacity of land and the forecasted production capacity of land in 2007 and 2008, and then conduct comprehensive forecast of the land production potential in Guizhou Province in 2020. On this basis, considering the nutritional standards needed by three kinds of life type (dressing warmly and eating one's fill, well-off life, relatively affluent life), we evaluate the land production potential in Guizhou Province under the project of returning farmland to forest. Based on the evaluation results, we put forth the relevant recommendations for achieving sustainable land use in the context of returning farmland to forest in Guizhou Province.
文摘全球气候变化是当前关注的热点问题,研究气候情景下中国典型开垦与退耕区耕地动态变化对保障中国粮食安全具有重要意义。该研究以东北地区作为典型区,基于设计的土地利用规划情景和RCPs(representative concentration pathways)气候情景,采用土地利用变化动态(DLS,dynamics of land system)模型模拟了在规划情景和RCPs气候情景下开垦与退耕区2010-2030年耕地的空间分布格局,分析不同耕地类型未来的变化趋势。研究结果表明:规划情景下水田呈持续减少的态势,而旱田在2000-2010年有小幅增长的态势,而后出现大面积减少;AIM(Asia-Pacific integrated model)气候模式情景下旱田增长趋势也较明显,水田则保持小幅减少的态势;MESSAGE(model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their general environmental impact)气候模式情景下,耕地面积呈减少的态势。从不同用地类型之间的转移分析得出,该区域开垦与退耕相逆的现象在未来情景下仍会延续,但是发生的频率却随时间的推移逐渐降低。该研究为开垦与退耕区应对气候变化,合理进行农业规划和耕地保护提供参考。
