Analysis of factors influencing carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region and projections of carbon peak scenarios

Based on the supply-side perspective,the improved STIRPAT model is applied to reveal the mechanisms of supply-side factors such as human,capital,technology,industrial synergy,institutions and economic growth on carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)through path analysis,and to forecast carbon emissions in the YRD from the baseline scenario,factor regulation scenario and integrated scenario to reach the peak.The results show that:(1)Jiangsu's high carbon emission pattern is the main reason for the YRD hindering the synergistic regulation of carbon emissions.(2)Human factors,institutional factors and economic growth factors can all contribute to carbon emissions in the YRD region,while technological and industrial factors can generally suppress carbon emissions in the YRD region.(3)Under the capital regulation scenario,the YRD region has the highest level of carbon emission synergy,with Jiangsu reaching its peak five years earlier.Under the balanced regulation scenario,the YRD region as a whole,Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Anhui reach the peak as scheduled.

Late Mesozoic Exhumation of the Huangling Massif:Constraints on the Evolution of the Middle Yangtze River

Plate subduction leads to complex exhumation processes on continents.The Huangling Massif lies at the northern margin of the South China Block.Whether the Huangling Massif was exhumed as a watershed of the middle reaches of the Paleo-Yangtze River during the Mesozoic remains under debate.We examined the exhumation history of the Huangling Massif based on six granite bedrock samples,using apatite fission track(AFT)and apatite and zircon(U-Th)/He(AHe and ZHe)thermochronology.These samples yielded ages of 157–132 Ma(ZHe),119–106 Ma(AFT),and 114–72 Ma(AHe),respectively.Thermal modeling revealed that three phases of rapid cooling occurred during the Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous,late Early Cretaceous,and Late Cretaceous.These exhumation processes led to the high topographic relief responsible for the emergence of the Huangling Massif.The integrated of our new data with published sedimentological records suggests that the Huangling Massif might have been the watershed of the middle reaches of the Paleo-Yangtze River since the Cretaceous.At that time,the rivers flowed westward into the Sichuan Basin and eastward into the Jianghan Basin.The subduction of the Pacific Plate beneath the Asian continent in the Mesozoic deeply influenced the geomorphic evolution of the South China Block.

The 2022 Extreme Heatwave in Shanghai,Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley:Combined Influences of Multiscale Variabilities

In the summer of 2022,China(especially the Yangtze River Valley,YRV)suffered its strongest heatwave(HW)event since 1961.In this study,we examined the influences of multiscale variabilities on the 2022 extreme HW in the lower reaches of the YRV,focusing on the city of Shanghai.We found that about 1/3 of the 2022 HW days in Shanghai can be attributed to the long-term warming trend of global warming.During mid-summer of 2022,an enhanced western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and anomalous double blockings over the Ural Mountains and Sea of Okhotsk,respectively,were associated with the persistently anomalous high pressure over the YRV,leading to the extreme HW.The Pacific Decadal Oscillation played a major role in the anomalous blocking pattern associated with the HW at the decadal time scale.Also,the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation may have contributed to regulating the formation of the double-blocking pattern.Anomalous warming of both the warm pool of the western Pacific and tropical North Atlantic at the interannual time scale may also have favored the persistency of the double blocking and the anomalously strong WPSH.At the subseasonal time scale,the anomalously frequent phases 2-5 of the canonical northward propagating variability of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation associated with the anomalous propagation of a weak Madden-Julian Oscillation suppressed the convection over the YRV and also contributed to the HW.Therefore,the 2022 extreme HW originated from multiscale forcing including both the climate warming trend and air-sea interaction at multiple time scales.

Disentangling the influencing factors of spatiotemporal evolution of sloping farmland in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China

Sloping farmland(SpF)is not only an important space for food production and supply in China’s hilly areas,but also a major source of soil erosion.Thus,it is important to achieve a healthy balance between regional food security and environmental protection.Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB),an important grain production base where SpF concentrated in China,is also faced with serious soil erosion.However,research at the macro scale on the spatiotemporal change of SpF and its driving forces in YREB is still lacking.To bridge the gap,we first analyzed the long-term evolution characteristics of SpF in 1069 counties in the YREB and then explored the driving mechanism of SpF changes during 1980-2020.Results showed that the SpF in the YREB continuously decreased during the study period,with a total area decreasing by 26,300 km2.SpF was primarily concentrated in the upper reaches of the YREB while SpF use dynamic degree varied significantly with the most active change in the lower reaches,reaching to a maximum of 0.324%.The spatial gravity of SpF distribution relocated 20.15 km towards the southwest.As for the driving factors,the socioeconomic factors contributed greater to SpF changes in the whole YREB and its subregions.The intensity of human activities is the most crucial,with factor contribution rate constantly above 0.76.The interactive detection revealed that the prevailing interaction format was primarily bi-enhanced,supplemented with nonlinear-enhanced,which amplified the role of different factors after interacting with them.The pair-wise interaction involving socioeconomic factors had a more potential effect on SpF changes compared to those between physical geography and locational factors.The influence of the intensity of human activities on SpF changes is greatly enhanced after interacting with any factor.It dominated SpF changes in the YREB and its interaction with GDP played an important role at all times.These findings can enlighten differential management strategies of SpF use and ecological conservation in the YREB.

Regional Brand and High-quality Development of Fruits in Ethnic Areas of the Yangtze River Economic Belt under the Greater Food Approach

Establishing the Greater Food Approach and promoting the Yangtze River Economic Belt s national major regional development strategy can better support and serve the agricultural power and Chinese-style modernization.This paper introduces the characteristics of fruit industry in 16 autonomous prefectures and 47 autonomous counties under the jurisdiction of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.It studies the intellectual property resources of brand marks from the aspects of geographical indications,collective trademarks,certification trademarks,well-known trademarks in China and national design patents,and analyzes the main problems of brand and high-quality development of fruit industry in these ethnic autonomous areas.Finally,it puts forward some strategies,such as improving the protection of intellectual property rights of geographical indications,using intellectual property rights of brand signs,building modern seed industry upgrading project,drawing lessons from the experience of thousand villages demonstration project,ensuring that large-scale poverty does not occur,and building a diversified food supply system.

Spatial-temporal Divergence Characteristics and Driving Factors of Green Economic Efficiency in the Yangtze River Economic Belt of China

The spatial and temporal variation of green economic efficiency and its driving factors are of great significance for the construction of high-efficiency and low-consumption green development model and sustainable socio-economic development.The research focused on the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)and employed the miniumum distance to strong efficient frontier DEA(MinDs)model to measure the green economic efficiency of the municipalities in the region between 2008 and 2020.Then,the spatial autocorrelation model was used to analyze the evolution characteristics of its spatial pattern.Finally,Geodetector was applied to reveal the drivers and their interactions on green economic efficiency.It is found that:1)the overall green economic efficiency of the YREB from 2008 to 2020 shows a W-shaped fluctuating upward trend,green economic efficiency is greater in the downstream and smallest in the upstream;2)the spatial distribution of green economic efficiency shows clustering characteristics,with multi-core clustering based on‘city clusters-central cities'becoming more obvious over time;the High-High agglomeration type is mainly clustered in Jiangsu and Zheji-ang,while the Low-Low agglomeration type is clustered in the western Sichuan Plateau area and southwestern Yunnan;3)from input-output factors,whether it is the YREB as a whole or the upper,middle and lower reaches regions,the economic development level,labor input,and capital investment are the leading factors in the spatial-temporal evolution of green economic efficiency,with the com-prehensive influence of economic development level and pollution index being the most important interactive driving factor;4)from so-cio-economic factors,information technology drivers such as government intervention,transportation accessibility,information infra-structure,and Internet penetration are always high impact influencers and dominant interaction factors for green economic efficiency in the YREB and the three major regions in the upper,middle and lower reaches.Accordingly,the article puts forward relevant policy re-commendations in terms of formulating differentiated green transformation strategies,strengthening network leadership and informa-tion technology construction and coordinating multi-factor integrated development,which could provide useful reference for promoting synergistic green economic efficiency in the YREB.

Promoting High-quality Development of Grain and Oil in Ethnic Areas of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from the Perspective of Agricultural Power

Accelerating the construction of agricultural power,further promoting the high-quality development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and better supporting and serving Chinese-style modernization are the key issues at present.This paper first introduces the Yangtze River Economic Belt and its ethnic areas,and studies the characteristics of the grain and oil industry in the ethnic autonomous areas of the economic belt,as well as the current situation of various types of intellectual property resources,such as industrial cultural heritage,scientific and tech-nological innovation,and brand marking intellectual property.Besides,it analyzes the main problems in the high-quality development of grain and oil in the Yangtze River Economic Belt ethnic areas.Finally,it comes up with recommendations,including protecting the intellectual prop-erty rights of cultural heritage in the field of grain and oil,leading the inheritance and development of excellent traditional Chinese culture,use scientific and technological innovation intellectual property rights to promote the innovation-driven development strategy of the grain and oil in-dustry,and providing counterpart assistance to ethnic autonomous areas in the Yangtze River Economic Belt to further promote the high-quality development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.

Evaluation of Ecological Sustainable Development in the Yangtze River Delta Region Based on Ecological Footprint Theory

The ecological footprint was employed as a quantitative indicator of resource inputs,enabling a detailed account of the structure of biological resources and energy occupancy,as well as the variation of resource productivity in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)Region.From 2004 to 2018,there were notable variations in the ecological productivity of different types of land on basis of China’s equilibrium factor across the three provinces and one city in the YRD region.Jiangsu Province exhibited the highest ecological productivity of arable land,while Anhui Province exhibited the highest ecological productivity of forest land.Shanghai City exhibited the highest ecological productivity of pasture land,while Zhejiang Province exhibited the highest ecological productivity of water area.In 2018,the proportion of arable land within the total ecological carrying capacity of the YRD region reached 74.35%.Furthermore,the contribution of Jiangsu and Anhui provinces to the YRD’s total ecological carrying capacity was 41.36%and 41.26%,respectively.In the construction of a new development pattern in the YRD region,which is dominated by the domestic cycle as the main body and mutually reinforced by domestic and international double-cycle,the YRD region should combine the utilization of natural forces with innovation in science,technology and cooperation mechanisms.Furthermore,the government should guide the concentration of social capital towards green industries.It is also recommended that the moderate reduction of ecological footprints should be encouraged,and that the security of biological resources and energy,the leadership in the field of cutting-edge science and technology should be ensured in YRD region.This will facilitate the formation of a new development pattern of higher-quality integration at the national level firstly.

Interdecadal change and projection of the relationship between spring Arctic Oscillation and summer precipitation in the Yangtze River valley in CMIP6 models

评估了20个CMIP6模式对春季北极涛动(AO)与长江流域夏季降水(YRP)关系的模拟能力.结果表明, 4个模式(ACCESS-ESM1-5, CMC-CM2-SR5, MRI-ESM2-0, NorESM2-LM))能合理模拟出1990年代后期AO-YRP关系的减弱. 1980-1998年,当春季AO位于正位相时,夏季东亚急流北移,长江流域为异常下沉运动,同时西太平洋副热带高压减弱,减少向长江流域的水汽输送,结果导致降水减少. 1999-2014年,上述大气环流与春季AO的联系不显著,从而减弱AO-YRP的关系.利用这四个模式进一步预估了RCP4.5情景下2015-2100年期间AO-YRP的关系.两者在2015-2040年为显著负相关关系,随后再次减弱.

Exploration of the “Living” Protection of Historic Blocks in South of the Yangtze River——A Case Study of Ancient Shajiabang Town, Changshu City

Historic blocks that focus only on protection of tangible constructed environment have shown various disadvantages and gradually lost their originality, according to the investigation. Protection of historic blocks should attach more importance to maintaining original lifestyles and community customs, protecting intangible contents and cultural diversity. The authors proposed that protection of historic blocks should follow the principle of "putting protection and repair on the top priority, using reasonably" and stress the "living" protection. There are three patterns of "living" protection, specifically, joint participation of local residents, construction of education base, moderate tourism development. Vitality of local economy can be enhanced and social humanistic environment protected effectively by improving the locals' living environment, so as to show true care for the people living in the historic block, and bring historic blocks to the real life.

Behavioral migration diversity of the Yangtze River Japanese Eel,Anguilla japonica,based on otolith Sr/Ca ratios

The Yangtze River estuary is the main production area of Anguilla japonica in China,as well as the only existing fishery area for adult eels.Japanese eels are distributed in the main rivers and many tributaries from the Yangtze River estuary to the upper Jinsha River,which extend to nearly 3 000 km.However,their migration behaviors remain relatively unknown.We analyzed the biological characteristics of 153 specimens of silver eels collected from the Jingjiang section of Yangtze River（31o30＇N,120o42＇E） between September and November,2008,and tested the sagittal Sr/Ca ratios of 27 specimens.Among the 153 specimens examined,85 were female and 68 were male,which translated to a female-male ratio of 1：0.8.The ages of the female specimens ranged from 3 to 7 a（average 5.52） with an average total length（TL） of（669±80） mm,average body weight（BW） of（555±229）g,average condition factor of 1.77±0.22,and average gonad somatic index（GSI） of 1.32±0.31.The ages of the males ranged from 3 to 5 a（average：4.38） with an average TL of（518±51） mm,average BW of（234±76） g,average condition factor of 1.62±0.18,and average GSI of 0.21±0.11.All biological parameters of females were significantly larger than those of the male specimens（P0.05）.According to the average Sr/Ca ratio（7.99±1.05） ×10-3 of the elver mark of sagitta,17 individuals（62.96%） were river eels and 10 individuals（37.04%） were estuarine eels.Of 16 females,13 individuals（81.25%） were river eels and 3 were estuarine eels,while of 11 males,36.36% were river eels and 63.64% were estuarine eels.The analysis on Sr/Ca ratios for every growth layer group（GLG） indicated there were no significant differences between second-age males and females.However,significant differences were observed between the third-age,fourth-age,and migration-age male and female specimens.This was likely related to the fact that second-age eels of both sexes stay in the same inhabitation waters;however,as they grow older,they move to different areas.

An Overview of Coilia ectenes in Jiangsu Section of the Yangtze River

Anchovies are migratory fish and adult individuals migrate in group from the sea into the river every year because of reproductive needs. TheYangtze River is the largest river in China, with rich food and fish species, hence, the Yangtze River would be an ideal habitat for growth and reproduction of anchovy. In this pa- per, based on fishing log data of anchovy in Jiangsu section of the Yangtze River, realted analysis was conducted in digital map using statistical software and GIS. From 2008 to 2011, the number of anchovy fishing vessels and fishing days in Jiangsu section remained stable, but the fishing volume and economic profit of single-vessel fluctuated constantly. This study provides references and advices for plan and management of anchovy fishery resource to administrative department.

Phytoplankton Community Structure and Its Spatial Distribution along Anhui-Jiangsu Reaches of the Yangtze River in Autumn 2009

[Objective] Surveys of phytoplankton were taken during the autumn of 2009 along Anhui-Jiangsu reaches of the Yangtze River to understand the species com- position and their spatial distributions. [Method] Phytoplankton species, their quanti- ties, biomass and the Mcnaughton＇s dominance indices were all measured and their spatial distribution characteristics were determined using cluster analysis. [Result] There were 27 species, belonging to 5 phyla, namely Chlorophyta, Bacillariophyta, Cyanophyta, Euglenophyta and Cryptophyta, of phytoplankton collected and identified from the surveys. Results showed that Bacillariophyta was the predominant phyto- plankton with 16 species collected which accounted for 59.3% of the total species identified. The number of species collected belonging to Chlorophyta, Cyanophyta, Cryptophyta and Euglenophyta were 6, 2, 2, and 1, accounting for 22.2%, 7.4%, 7.4% and 3.7% of the total number identified, respectively. At the species level, the predominant species were Fragilaria crotonensis, Melosira italica, Navicula crypto- cephala, Cyclotella striata and Chroomonas acuta. Phytoplankton abundance was ranging from 5.68×10^4 to 7.08×10^4 cells/L with its average of 6.01×10^4 cells/L. Phyto- plankton biomass was ranging from 30.43 to 34.73 μg/L with its average of 32.46 μg/L. Compared with the previous reports, the number of phytoplankton species was decreased but its abundance and biomass was increased along the Jiangsu reach of the Yangtze River. However, Bacillariophyta species were still the predominant species and the phytoplankton community structure had not significantly changed from the previous studies. [Conclusion] These results might be explained as that the water quality in the Yangtze River was deteriorated but had not come to the worst. The results of similarity analysis gave two clusters of phytoplankton community as Nanjing, Wuhu and Jiangyin sampling sites were clustered into one group and Tongling and Anqing were clustered into another group.

Morphological changes of silver and bighead carp in the Yangtze River over the past 50 years

Multivariate analysis was adopted to analyze 30 morphometrical characteristics of 121 one-year-old juvenile silver carp （Hypophthalmichthys molitrix） and bighead carp （Aristichthys nobilis） bred during the 1950s （＂the former population＂） and 2008 （＂the current population＂） and collected from the middle reach of the Yangtze River. The average discriminant accuracies of the former and current silver and bighead carp population were 94.2% and 98.0%, respectively. Discriminant analysis also revealed that significant differences in morphology occurred between the former and current populations of both carp in overall characteristics. One-way analysis of variance indicated that between former and current populations, silver carp showed highly significant differences （P0.01） in twelve of their characteristics and significant differences （P0.05） in eight of their characteristics, while bighead carp showed highly significant differences （P0.01） in eight of their characteristics and significant differences （P0.05） in eight of their characteristics. Six head morphology variables of the current silver and bighead carp were significantly or highly significantly larger than the former populations; fourteen characteristics of silver carp and ten characteristics of bighead carp of the current populations, mainly reflecting truck and tail morphology, were significantly or very significantly smaller than the former populations. Our results indicate that silver and bighead carp have developed a larger head and smaller truck and tail during the last 50 years. Due to such morphological changes, it seems apparent that the heads of these fish species need to be considered in regards to human diets, particularly in relation to economic and nutritious value.

Uphill or downhill?Cropland use change and its drivers from the perspective of slope spectrum

The continuous decrease of low-slope cropland resources caused by construction land crowding poses huge threat to regional sustainable development and food security.Slope spectrum analysis of topographic and geomorphic features is considered as a digital terrain analysis method which reflects the macro-topographic features by using micro-topographic factors.However,pieces of studies have extended the concept of slope spectrum in the field of geoscience to construction land to explore its expansion law,while research on the slope trend of cropland from that perspective remains rare.To address the gap,in virtue of spatial analysis and geographically weighted regression(GWR)model,the cropland use change in the Yangtze River Basin(YRB)from 2000 to 2020 was analyzed and the driving factors were explored from the perspective of slope spectrum.Results showed that the slope spectrum curves of cropland area-frequency in the YRB showed a first upward then a downward trend.The change curve of the slope spectrum of cropland in each province(municipality)exhibited various distribution patterns.Quantitative analysis of morphological parameters of cropland slope spectrum revealed that the further down the YRB,the stronger the flattening characteristics,the more obvious the concentration.The province experienced the greatest downhill cropland climbing(CLC)was Shannxi,while province experienced the highest uphill CLC was Zhejiang.The most common cropland use change type in the YRB was horizontal expansion type.The factors affecting average cropland climbing index(ACCI)were quite stable in different periods,while population density(POP)changed from negative to positive during the study period.This research is of practical significance for the rational utilization of cropland at the watershed scale.

Protection and Control Method of the Newly Built Underground Pipelines in the Embankment of Yangtze River

In the year of 2011, in the emergency reinforcement project of the main dike of Yangtze River in Luhe District, Nanjing City, four underground pipelines were vertically crossed with the embankment. In this project, each pipeline had been es- tablished independent culvert structure for protection and high pressure injection method had been used for the foundation treatment. To extend the length of the foot of slope and to improve the impermeable capacity of the dike, additional com- posite geomembranes had been installed in the riverside slope. By optimizing the construction program and enhancing the settlement observation during the constrution period, the safe operation of the pipelines had therefore been ensured.

Evolution of Main Characteristics of the Registered Cotton Cultivars in National Cotton Regional Trials in Yangtze River Valley

[Objective] The aim of this study was to characterize the national regis- tered varieties selected from cotton regional trials in Yangtze River Valley （YaRV） in recent years. [Method] Cotton cultivar classification and comprehensive evaluation index were set up based on national cotton registration standard. GGE biplot method was adopted to analyze the correlation of major breeding target characters of 53 national registered cotton varieties in cotton regional trials in YaRV during 1981-2012. According to the shift of check cultivars in cotton regional trials in the past, the cotton regional trial practice since 1981 was divided into five periods. The dynamic of cultivar type＇s proportion and the evaluation index scores was analyzed across the five periods. [Result] There existed intricate interrelationship among cotton breeding target traits, which constrained it necessary to construct indices for com- prehensive evaluation of cotton varieties. The dynamic of cultivar types in the five periods indicated that type II varieties emerged since Simian 3 period and then its proportion decreased gradually; type Ⅲ varieties maintained a certain proportion in each period and kept on the rise overall; type Ⅳvarieties occupied the majority pro- portion of registered cultivars before 1993, but a minor proportion since Simian 3 period. On the other side, the change trend of the evaluation index demonstrated that the varieties registered before 2003 did not pass the qualified line at present. The peak scores appeared in the varieties registered during 2004-2008. The scores of the varieties registered after 2009 were only slightly over the qualified line. [Conclusion] More attention should be paid to the improvement and evaluation of micronaire, so as to guide the simultaneous development of high yielding and fiber quality in cotton breeding and registration procedure in YaRV.

Creation of "Regional Characteristic" in Planning and Design of Farmers' Residential Area at the South of Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

After analysis of location feature of the south of lower reaches of Yangtze River and its construction of urban and rural integration,the paper pointed out harmonious combination between natural and artificial factors had been neglected in planning and design of farmers' residential area at the south of lower reaches of Yangtze River,"regional characteristic" losing,residential area in the form of "city community" and buildings in European style.In view of these problems,relevant planning and design thoughts and methods had been proposed as to how to create "regional characteristic" from the perspective of planning,architecture and landscape design.It discussed with emphasis the importance of construction base type and combination of environment with residential area construction;inspirations and design methods obtained from traditional architectures;and the content of landscape overall planning and specific design.It was hoped to enlighten designers to shoulder social and historical responsibility,make exploration unremittingly,and construct beautiful homelands for people.

Prediction of discharge in a tidal river using the LSTM-based sequence-to-sequence models

The complexity of river-tide interaction poses a significant challenge in predicting discharge in tidal rivers.Long short-term memory(LSTM)networks excel in processing and predicting crucial events with extended intervals and time delays in time series data.Additionally,the sequence-to-sequence(Seq2Seq)model,known for handling temporal relationships,adapting to variable-length sequences,effectively capturing historical information,and accommodating various influencing factors,emerges as a robust and flexible tool in discharge forecasting.In this study,we introduce the application of LSTM-based Seq2Seq models for the first time in forecasting the discharge of a tidal reach of the Changjiang River(Yangtze River)Estuary.This study focuses on discharge forecasting using three key input characteristics:flow velocity,water level,and discharge,which means the structure of multiple input and single output is adopted.The experiment used the discharge data of the whole year of 2020,of which the first 80%is used as the training set,and the last 20%is used as the test set.This means that the data covers different tidal cycles,which helps to test the forecasting effect of different models in different tidal cycles and different runoff.The experimental results indicate that the proposed models demonstrate advantages in long-term,mid-term,and short-term discharge forecasting.The Seq2Seq models improved by 6%-60%and 5%-20%of the relative standard deviation compared to the harmonic analysis models and improved back propagation neural network models in discharge prediction,respectively.In addition,the relative accuracy of the Seq2Seq model is 1%to 3%higher than that of the LSTM model.Analytical assessment of the prediction errors shows that the Seq2Seq models are insensitive to the forecast lead time and they can capture characteristic values such as maximum flood tide flow and maximum ebb tide flow in the tidal cycle well.This indicates the significance of the Seq2Seq models.

Land Use Dynamics and Ecosystem Service Value Changes in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration Under Different Scenarios

Urban agglomerations,serving as pivotal centers of human activity,undergo swift alterations in ecosystem services prompted by shifts in land utilization.Strengthening the monitoring of ecosystem services in present and future urban agglomerations contributes to the rational planning of these areas and enhances the well-being of their inhabitants.Here,we analyzed land use conversion in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)urban agglomeration during 1990-2020 and discussed the spatiotemporal response and main drivers of changes in ecosystem service value(ESV).By considering the different development strategic directions described in land use planning policies,we predicted land use conversion and its impact on ESV using the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model in three scenari-os in 2025 and 2030.Results show that:1)from 1990 to 2020,land use change is mainly manifested as the continuous expansion of con-struction land to cultivated land.Among the reduced cultivated land,82.2%were occupied by construction land.2)The land use types conversion caused a loss of 21.85 billion yuan(RMB)in ESV during 1990-2020.Moreover,the large reduction of cultivated land area led to the continuous decline of food production value,accounting for 13%of the total ESV loss.3)From 2020 to 2030,land use change will mainly focus on Yangzhou and Zhenjiang in central Jiangsu Province and Taizhou in southern Zhejiang Province.Under the BAU(natural development)and ED(cultivated land protection)scenarios,construction land expansion remains dominant.In contrast,under the EP(ecological protection)scenario,the areas of water bodies and forest land increase significantly.Among the different scenarios,ESV is highest in the EP scenario,making it the optimal solution for sustainable land use.It can be seen that the space use conflict among urban,agriculture and ecology is a key factor leading to ESV change in the urban agglomeration of Yangtze River Delta.There-fore,it is crucial to maintain spatial land use coordination.Our findings provide suggestions for scientific and rational land use planning for the urban agglomeration.