Understanding the Relationship Between Shrinking Cities and Land Prices:Spatial Pattern,Effectiveness,and Policy Implications

Urban shrinkage has emerged as a widespread phenomenon globally and has a significant impact on land,particularly in terms of land use and price.This study focuses on 2851 county-level cities in China in 2005–2018(excluding Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan,and‘no data’areas in Qinhai-Tibet Plateau)as the fundamental units of analysis.By employing nighttime light(NTL)data to identify shrinking cities,the propensity score matching(PSM)model was used to quantitatively examine the impact of shrinking cities on land prices,and evaluate the magnitude of this influence.The findings demonstrate the following:1)there were 613 shrinking cities in China,with moderate shrinkage being the most prevalent and severe shrinkage being the least.2)Regional disparities are evident in the spatial distribution of shrinking cities,especially in areas with diverse terrain.3)The spatial pattern of land price exhibits a significant correlated to the economic and administrative levels.4)Shrinking cities significantly negatively impact on the overall land price(ATT=–0.1241,P<0.05).However,the extent of the effect varies significantly among different spatial regions.This study contributes novel insights into the investigation of land prices and shrinking cities,ultimately serving as a foundation for government efforts to promote the sustainable development of urban areas.

Brent vs.West Texas Intermediate in the US petro derivatives price formation

In this paper,we apply the spatial panel model to explore the relationship between the dynamic of two types of crude oil prices(WTI and Brent crude oil)and their refined products over time.Considering the turbulent months of 2011,when Cushing Oklahoma had reached capacity and the crude oil export ban removal in 2015 as breakpoints,we apply this method both in the full sample and the three resultant regimes.First,results suggest our results show that both WTI and Brent display very similar behaviour with the refined products.Second,when attending to each regime,results derived from the first and third regimes are quite similar to the full sample results.Therefore,during the second regime,Brent crude oil became the benchmark in the petrol market,and it influenced the distillate products.Furthermore,our model can let us determine the price-setters and price-followers in the price formation mechanism through refined products.These results possess important considerations to policymakers and the market participants and the price formation.

Production Chain Length and PPI-CPI Divergence:Analysis Based on the Global Input-output Price Model

Productivity and international energy price shocks are reflected in PPI and CPI via industrial chains.China’s in-depth participation into the global value chains has increasingly lengthened its industrial production chains.The question is how the changing length of production chains will affect CPI and PPI,as well as CPI-PPI correlation?By constructing a global input-output price model,this paper offers a theoretical discussion on the impact of production chain length on the CPI-PPI divergence.Our findings suggest that the price shock of international bulk commodities has a greater impact on China’s PPI than that on CPI.The effects on both China’s PPI and CPI estimated by using the single-country input-output model are higher than the results estimated with the global input-output model.However,the difference between CPI and PPI variations estimated with the global input-output model is greater than the result estimated with the single-country input-output model,which supports the view that the lengthening of production chains,especially international production chains,leads to a divergence between CPI and PPI.Empirical results based on cross-national panel data also suggest that the lengthening of production chains has reduced the CPI-PPI correlation for countries,i.e.the lengthening of production chains has increased the PPI-CPI divergence.That is to say,policymakers should target not just CPI in maintaining price stability,but instead focus on the stability of both PPI and CPI.Efforts can be made to proactively adjust the price index system,and formulate the industrial chain price index.

The Influence of Price Discrimination from Airports on the Route Development Behavior of Airlines

Given the prominence and magnitude of airport incentive schemes,it is surprising that literature hitherto remains silent as to their effectiveness.In this paper,the relationship between airport incentive schemes and the route development behavior of airlines is analyzed.Because of rare and often controversial findings in the extant literature regarding relevant influencing variables for attracting airlines at an airport,expert interviews are used as a complement to formulate testable hypotheses in this regard.A fixed effects regression model is used to test the hypotheses with a dataset that covers all seat capacity offered at the 22 largest German commercial airports in the week 46 from 2004 to 2011.It is found that incentives from primary choice,as well as secondary choice airports,have a significant influence on Low Cost Carriers.Furthermore,Low Cost Carriers,in general,do not leave any of both types of airports when the incentives cease.In the case of Network Carriers,no case is found where one joins a primary choice airport and receives an incentive.Insufficient data between Network Carriers and secondary choice airports in the time when incentives have ceased means that no statement can be given.

The Prediction for the Consumer Price Index of Residents in Perspective of Time Series Method in Case of Chongqing

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the relative number of changes in the price level of consumer goods and services over time, reflecting the trend and degree of changes in the price level of goods and services purchased by residents. This article uses the ARMA model to analyze the fluctuation trend of the CPI (taking Chongqing as an example) and make short-term predictions. To test the predictive performance of the model, the observation values from January to December 2023 were retained as the reference object for evaluating the predictive accuracy of the model. Finally, through trial predictions of the data from May to August 2023, it was found that the constructed model had good fitting performance.

Stock Price Prediction Based on the Bi-GRU-Attention Model

The stock market, as one of the hotspots in the financial field, forms a data system with a huge volume of data and complex relationships between various factors, making stock price prediction an area of keen interest for further in-depth mining and research. Mathematical statistics methods struggle to deal with nonlinear relationships in practical applications, making it difficult to explore deep information about stocks. Meanwhile, machine learning methods, particularly neural network models and composite models, which have achieved outstanding results in other fields, are being applied to the stock market with significant results. However, researchers have found that these methods do not grasp the essential information of the data as well as expected. In response to these issues, researchers are exploring better neural network models and combining them with other methods to analyze stock data. Thus, this paper proposes the ABiGRU composite model, which combines the attention mechanism and bidirectional gated recurrent unit (GRU) that can effectively extract data features for stock price prediction research. Models such as LSTM, GRU, and Bi-LSTM are selected for comparative experiments. To ensure the credibility and representativeness of the research data, daily stock price indices of BYD are chosen for closing price prediction studies across different models. The results show that the ABiGRU model has a lower prediction error and better fitting effect on three index-based stock prices, enhancing the learning efficiency of the neural network model and demonstrating good prediction stability. This suggests that the ABiGRU model is highly adaptable for stock price prediction.

The dynamics of price discovery between the U.S.and Chinese soybean market:a wavelet approach to understanding the effects of Sino-US trade conflict and COVID-19 pandemic

During geopolitical crises,the price stability of agricultural commodities is critical for national security.Understanding the dynamics of pricing power between the U.S.and China and how it varies over time can help smaller nations navigate unpredictable moments.This study uses a unified framework and wavelet approach to examine soybean price discovery in the U.S.and China from the standpoints of price interdependence and information flows.We begin by illustrating the integrated link between the soybean futures markets in the U.S.and China,which includes multiple structural breaks.The pricing difference between the two nations acts as the primary information spillover route for their integrated relationship.Furthermore,we show that the direction and degree of information spillover change dramatically in proportion to the strength of the U.S.–Chinese soybean interaction.Finally,we find that China’s recent retaliatory tax on the U.S.soybeans gave the Chinese market a more powerful position in soybean futures price discovery.After the first-stage trade deal was reached,and during the epidemic phase of the coronavirus pandemic,the pricing power of the U.S.soybean market showed no signs of full recovery.

The Effects of Infrastructure Projects on House Prices and Rents:Evidence from the HS2 Extension Cancellation in the UK

This paper uses the HS2 extension cancellation in November 2021 as a quasi-experiment to study its impact on house prices and rents in Leeds.Using a DiD approach on repeat sales and monthly rents,I compare property values near the HS2 station and proposed construction site before and after the announcement.Results show a 3.6%decrease in house prices and a 3.9%decline in rents near the station,while properties near the construction site experienced a 2.4%increase in prices and a 2.1%rise in rents.This is the first paper to analyse the HS2 cancellation effect using panel data methods.

Study on the Price Design and Contract Stability of "Company + Farmer" Model with Time Preference under Double Moral Hazards

The double moral hazard of ＂company ＋ farmer＂ and the time preference cost of company and farmer was analyzed. According to static game model, it re-vealed that the reason for low compliance rate of ＂company ＋ farmer＂ model was the existence of market risk, namely, the fluctuation of market price, and the stable market price in contracts was actualy a kind of interval, instead of a specific value. Furthermore, the effect of default penalty, market transaction cost and time prefer-ence cost on the stability of contract was studied. The results showed that default penalty, market transaction cost and time preference cost had positive influence on the price interval range of a contract.

Analyses of Current Electricity Price and Its Changing Trend Forecast in the Coming Five Years

This paper analyzes the level, characteristics and existing problems of current electricityprice in China. Under the present circumstances the overall orientation of power price reform inthe 10th Five-year Plan period should satisfy the requirements of power industry restructuring.Therefore, it is necessary to set up an appropriate pricing mechanism and system including thelinks of sales price to network, transmission and distribution price (T&D price) and sales price.In the light of various factors influencing increase and decrease in price, a forecast of electricitytariff is given in the five years to come.[

The relationship between international crude oil prices and China＇s refined oil prices based on a structural VAR model

With the frequent fluctuations of international crude oil prices and China＇s increasing dependence on foreign oil in recent years, the volatility of international oil prices has significantly influenced China domestic refined oil price. This paper aims to investigate the transmission and feedback mechanism between international crude oil prices and China＇s refined oil prices for the time span from January 2011 to November 2015 by using the Granger causality test, vector autoregression model, impulse response function and variance decomposition methods. It is demonstrated that variation of international crude oil prices can cause China domestic refined oil price to change with a weak feedback effect. Moreover, international crude oil prices and China domestic refined oil prices are affected by their lag terms in positive and negative directions in different degrees. Besides, an international crude oil price shock has a signif- icant positive impact on domestic refined oil prices while the impulse response of the international crude oil price variable to the domestic refined oil price shock is negatively insignificant. Furthermore, international crude oil prices and domestic refined oil prices have strong historical inheri- tance. According to the variance decomposition analysis, the international crude oil price is significantly affected by its own disturbance influence, and a domestic refined oil price shock has a slight impact on international crude oil price changes. The domestic refined oil price variance is mainly caused by international crude oil price disturbance, while the domestic refined oil price is slightly affected by its own disturbance. Generally, domestic refined oil prices do not immediately respond to an international crude oil price change, that is, there is a time lag.

THE BENCHMARK LAND PRICE SYSTEM AND URBANLAND USE EFFICIENCY IN CHINA

ABSTRACT: China began to introduce market principles and establish price mechanism to better manage land and improve land use efficiency in the late 1980s. Since then, land markets begin to emerge. A benchmark land price system, providing guidelines for land use rights selling and transferring, was established in order to overcome lack of market data and experiences in land transaction. The benchmark prices of land use rights are determined by land use, land use density (floor-land ratio), land grades, land improvement, and tenant resettlement costs. This paper first conducts a formal analysis based on modern urban economic theory. The formal model provides a theoretical foundation in which the benchmark land price system is assessed and evaluated in terms of land use and urban development. The paper then concludes that the benchmark price system has two theoretical problems. One is associated with the fact that floor-land ratio plays an important role in land price determination whereas the theory suggests the other way around. That is, floor-land ratio depends on land prices. The other problem is that the benchmark land price system does not provide adequate room for the substitution between land and capital inputs. The substitution is a key in achieving land use efficiency in land markets and urban development process. It is concluded that the practice of the benchmark land price system is at odd with reforms that aim to introduce market principles and mechanism to guide resource uses. Therefore, it is recommended that further land policy reform should be taken.

The interactions between Chinese local corn and WTI crude oil prices:an empirical analysis

This paper investigates the relationship between China’s fuel ethanol promotion plan and food security based on the interactions between the crude oil market, the fuel ethanol market and the grain market. Based on the US West Texas Intermediate(WTI) crude oil spot price and Chinese corn prices from January 2008 to May 2018, this paper applies Granger causality testing and a generalized impulse response function to explore the relationship between world crude oil prices and Chinese corn prices. The results show that crude oil prices are not the Granger cause of China’s corn prices, but changes in world crude oil prices will have a long-term positive impact on Chinese corn prices. Therefore, the Chinese government should pay attention to changes in crude oil prices when promoting fuel ethanol. Considering the conduction e ect between fuel ethanol and the food market, the government should also take some measures to ensure food security.

An Empirical Analysis of the Price Discovery Function of Shanghai Fuel Oil Futures Market

This paper analyzes the role of price discovery of Shanghai fuel oil futures market by using methods, such as unit root test, co-integration test, error correction model, Granger causality test, impulse-response fimction and variance decomposition. The results showed that there exists a strong relationship between the spot price of Huangpu fuel oil spot market and the futures price of Shanghai fuel oil futures market. In addition, the Shanghai fuel oil futures market exhibits a highly effective price discovery function.

The Virtual Repeat Sale Model for the House Price Index for New Building in China

By using the characteristics of the new building in China, this article constructs the virtual repeat sale method to produce virtual repeat data which is similar to the repeat sale model on the house price index. Case-Shiller procedure and OFHEO method are used to calculate the house price index for new building in China. A discussion is given and furthering models are needed to take advantage of the virtual repeat sale data.

Optimization purchase price and the profit policy undervendor managed inventory

The optimization policy of the purchase price and the profit under vendor managed inventory(VMI) is studied. For a salable product, supply chain mode of VMI is established, which is based on deterministic demand, having initial stock and having stock-out cost. With the further analysis of the mode, VMI is found to increase profits of the buyer in the short-term motivation. But VMI will reduce profits of the supplier under the matching condition. And in the short-term motivation, VMI will increase the purchase price to compensate the transfer cost of the supplier. As a result, the foundation of theory is provided to implement VMI in the supply chain, and have some definituded project significance.

How did the price and income elasticities of natural gas demand in China evolve from 1999 to 2015? The role of natural gas price reform

As a cleaner,high-efficiency,and low-carbon fuel,natural gas has been an important fuel resource for China.To achieve a substantial increase in natural gas demand,China has sought to reform its natural gas pricing mechanism.Employing a set of unbalanced panel data for China’s 30 provinces covering 1999-2015,this study aims to estimate the evolving price and income elasticities of natural gas demand and explore the effect of natural gas price reform in China.For this purpose,a series of econometric techniques allowing for cross-sectional dependence and slope homogeneity is utilized.The results suggest that although natural gas demand in China still lacks negative price elasticity,the phenomenon is improving.Moreover,the estimates suggest that natural gas demand in China is indeed becoming increasingly sensitive to income changes.Our estimates also provide strong evidence in favor of the effect of natural gas price reform on the change in price elasticity as the price elasticity decreases in five of the seven regions.In addition,the results indicate large variations in the change in price and income elasticities of natural gas demand across China’s regions.Natural gas demand is becoming more price inelastic in Southwest China and Northwest China,while such demand in North China and East China responds less sensitively to income changes.These findings offer several policy suggestions for the reform of China’s natural gas market at the national and regional levels.

The Spillover Effect between Futures and Spot Price of Agricultural Products:A Case Study of Soybean Products of China

Taking soybean products as an example and using the daily price data of 2007-2015,this paper established the error correction model and BEKK-GARCH model,and made an empirical study on the spillover effect of futures and spot price of agricultural products of China. According to this study,there were mean spillover effect and two-way volatility spillover effect in futures and spot price of soybean,soybean oil,and soybean meal; soybean futures prices significantly guided the spot price; in the price linkage between the types,the price relationship between the soybean meal and soybean was closer than between the soybean oil and soybean.

A Game Theory Analysis of the OPEC’s Influence on World Oil Price

Most studies concerning OPEC＇s behavior assumptions about oil market structure are either very were based on traditional market microstructure. However, the rigorous or rather fuzzy. This paper demonstrates the rationality and necessity of OPEC＇s price band policy by using the game theory. We conclude that OPEC has the incentive to limit its price within a specific range if the game period is sufficiently long. This incentive comes either from preference for long-term interest or from future expectations. In such a way, OPEC tries its best to maximize its profit with the quota-price dual policy and plays a price stabilizing role in the future world oil market.

Vertical Price Transmission in the China's Layer Industry Chain:an Application of FDL Approach

This paper examines the vertical price relationship between upstream and downstream products in China＇s layer industry chain by estimating elasticity coefficients of the price transmission. We use cointegration tests, error correction models and finite distributed lag models to analyze vertical price shifts between corn, layer feed, egg-laying chicken and egg prices. With monthly data from 1994 to 2010, our results show that various prices in China＇s layer industry chain are well integrated. In addition, our results indicate that both long-run and short-run price relationships between upstream and downstream products in layer industry chain exist and the long-run equilibrium, to a certain extent, may eliminate the short-run dynamics price deviation. We also found that the influence of corn and feed prices on egg prices is still more remarkable than egg-laying chicken prices. Our findings imply that governments should pay more attention to corn and layer feed prices in order to stabilize egg prices under the conditions of market integration.