The Evolution of Urban and Rural Construction Land Based on Spatial Econometrics:A Case Study of Bijie City

Based on the theory of spatial econometrics,we test and process the urban and rural construction land data during the base period of planning and late period of planning in Bijie City.And we conduct comparative analysis of the spatial pattern and evolution characteristics of urban and rural construction land in 41 towns of Bijie City before and after the planning.According to Getis-ord G i coefficient test results,the cold spot area of urban and rural construction land in northeast of Bijie City will gradually disappear,and the key point of hot spot area will be gradually transferred from the central region to the central and eastern regions.The results show that under the guidance of the overall land use planning in Bijie City,the urban and rural construction land will show strong spatial autocorrelation;agglomeration benefits and scale merit will appear clearly,in line with the actual situation of current development of Bijie City.

Study on urban spatial structure and morphology of Guangzhou-Foshan metropolitan coordinating region compared with Randstad,Netherlands

In recent years,regional integration of Chinese cities has gradually developed.Meanwhile,metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations have taken shape.On the one hand,the development of the metropolitan area has brought about urban spatial expansion,as well as population and economic growth.On the other hand,it has led to problems such as the urban sprawl and suburbanization,increasing pressure on environmental resources,and the decline of urban central areas.Under this background,the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Development Plan Outline proposes to accelerate the integration of Guangzhou-Foshan(Guang Fo)Metropolitan Coordinating Region(MCR),and to construct a networked space pattern driven by urban poles and shafts.Based on the academic research of Metropolitan Coordinating Region(MCR),as well as the theory of urban spatial structure and morphology,this study focus on urban spatial patterns and elements in different scales,from two individual cites(Guangzhou and Foshan),Guang Fo MCR,to Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao(GHM)Greater Bay Area.With GIS and the mapping method,the spatial elements such as green space,water system,built-up area,road network,rail transit network and main pivot points of the Guang Fo MCR are classified,laid out individually and again overlaid in order to figure out the relationship of these elements.At the same time,through the comparative case study of the Randstad MCR in the Netherlands,the enlightenment of solving the development problem of MCR is hopefully to be obtained.As delta cities,the Guang Fo MCR is cut by the multi-channel water network,while the urban built-up area is concentrated in the middle of the MCR and spread out along the traffic corridor to the suburban district.The traffic structure of the Guang Fo MCR is characterized by the outward radiation of the central area of Guangzhou and Foshan.Simultaneously,the traffic connection between Guangzhou and Foshan is relatively weak.Compared with the polycentric spatial structure,which is called Decentralized Compact pattern of Randstad MCR,the Guang Fo MCR presents a city form with little hierarchy but homogeneity,and its urban space is disorderly spread.The bluegreen system of water and vegetation is fragmented because of the urban invasion in Guang Fo MCR,while the green heart in central Randstad is well preserved.As a result,it is well advised to explore a more resilient and ecological urban development in Guang Fo MCR.

Study of Urban and Rural Construction Land Change Based on Small Scale in Dafang

This paper is to examine the urban and rural construction land data of Dafang between basic year and final year based on country scale and spatial econometrics,and analyze its spatial pattern and change feature. According to the results,the construction lands in all the villages of Dafang County showed strong spatial autocorrelation and significant spatial cluster. After the analysis of local Moran's I,the construction lands in 381 villages of 36 counties presented strong activity. The original small-scale villages were gradually enlarging,which will not only gradually benefit local development,but also be in accordance with the strategy of " one city,one district,eight parks".

Exploring spatial-temporal change and gravity center movement of construction land in the Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration

Urban agglomeration is caused by the continuous acceleration of the urbanization process in China. Studying the expansion of construction land can not only know the changes and development of urban agglomeration in time, but also obtain the great significance of the future management. In this study, taking Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan(Chang-Zhu-Tan) urban agglomeration in Hunan province as a study area, Landsat images from 1995 to 2014 and Autologistic-CLUE-S model simulation data were used. Moreover, several factors including gravity center, direction, distance and landscape index were considered in the analysis of the expansion. The results revealed that the construction area increased by 132.18%, from 372.28 km^2 in 1995 to 864.37 km^2 in 2014. And it might even reach 1327.23 km^2 in 2023. Before 2014, three cities had their own respective and discrete development directions. However, because of the integration policy implementation in 2008, the Chang-Zhu-Tan began to gather, the gravity center moved southward after 2014, and the distance between cities decreased, which was in line with the development plan of urban expansion. The research methods and results were relatively reliable, and these results could provide some reference for the future land use planning and spatial allocation in the urbanization process of Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration.

城乡建设用地增减挂钩政策与城乡收入差距

在空间均衡视角下,建立理论模型分析城乡建设用地增减挂钩政策对城乡收入差距的影响,并通过实证分析进行政策评估的结果表明:增减挂钩政策能够提高城乡居民人均收入,但是对城市居民人均收入提高幅度更多,从而加大城乡收入差距。如果配套实施农村生产率提升的增减挂钩政策,在提高城乡居民人均收入的同时,这种综合性改革能够促使农村人均收入提高幅度更大,进而缩小城乡收入差距。随后,基于2000—2016年省级面板数据,采用逐期双重差分法与合成控制法分别评估城乡建设用地增减挂钩政策与配套实施农村生产率提升的增减挂钩政策对城乡收入差距影响的实证结果发现:自2006年实施增减挂钩政策后,增减挂钩试点省份的城乡收入差距均值提升0.125,达到2.820;自2008年实施配套农村生产率提升的增减挂钩政策后,重庆市的城乡收入差距均值下降0.261,达到3.043。基于此,在城乡融合背景下,我们应建立健全城乡统一建设用地市场制度。

改进CA-Markov模型的城市土地空间结构演变预测

城市土地空间结构演变预测需要大量的数据支持,现阶段预测手段存在预测精度不佳的问题,为此提出GIS技术下城市土地空间结构演变预测方法。通过GIS技术获取城市土地空间结构数据,并对其进行结构演变分析;通过人工神经网络模型、轮盘竞争机制和惯性系数对CA模型实行优化处理;将改进CA模型与Markov结构结合,建立改进CA-Markov模型,根据城市土地空间结构演变分析结果实现城市土地空间结构演变预测。实验结果表明,所提方法的城市土地空间结构演变预测精度更高,整体应用效果更好。

Urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under carbon peak and neutrality goals:A case study of Guangzhou,China

Urban construction land has relatively high human activity and high carbon emissions.Research on urban construction land prediction under carbon peak and neutrality goals(hereafter“dual carbon”goals)is important for territorial spatial planning.This study analyzed quantitative relationships between carbon emissions and urban construction land,and then modified the construction land demand prediction model.Thereafter,an integrated model for urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under“dual carbon”goals was developed,where urban construction land suitability was modified based on carbon source and sink capacity of different land-use types.Using Guangzhou as a case study,the integrated model was validated and applied to simulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of its urban construction land during 2030–2060 under baseline development and“dual carbon”goals scenarios.The simulation results showed that Guangzhou’s urban construction land expanded rapidly until 2030,with the spatial pattern not showing an intensive development trend.Guangzhou’s urban construction land expansion slowed during 2030–2060,with an average annual growth rate of 0.2%,and a centralized spatial pattern trend.Under the“dual carbon”goal scenario,Guangzhou’s urban construction land evolved into a polycentric development pattern in 2030.Compared with the baseline development scenario,urban construction land expansion in Guangzhou during 2030–2060 is slower,with an average annual growth rate of only 0.1%,and the polycentric development pattern of urban construction land was more prominent.Furthermore,land maintenance and growth,that is,a carbon sink,is more obvious under the“dual carbon”goals scenario,with the forest land area nearly 10.6%higher than that under the baseline development scenario.The study of urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under“dual carbon”goals provides a scientific decision-making support tool for territorial spatial planning,aiding in quantifying territorial spatial planning.

Comparison of spatial structures of urban agglomerations between the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Boswash based on the subpixel-level impervious surface coverage product

Under the background of China's rapid urbanization, study on comparative analysis of the spatial structure of urban agglomerations between China and the US can provide the policy proposals of space optimization for the Chinese government. Taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH) and Boswash as study area, we mapped the subpixel-level impervious surface coverage of the BTH and Boswash, respectively, from 1972 to 2011. Further, landscape metrics, gravitational model and spatial analysis were used to analyze the differences of the spatial structures between the BTH and Boswash. The results showed that(1) the area of the impervious surface increased rapidly in the BTH, while those remained stable in the Boswash.(2) The spatial structure of the BTH experienced different periods including isolated cities stage, dual-core cities stage, group cities stage and network-style cities stage, while those of the Boswash was more stable, and its spatial pattern showed a "point-axis" structure.(3) The spatial pattern of high-high assembling regions of the impervious surface exhibited a "standing pancake" feature in the BTH, while those showed a "multi-center, local aggregation and global discrete" feature in the Boswash.(4) All the percentages of the impervious surface of ecological, living, and production land of the BTH were higher than those of the Boswash. At last, from the perspective of space optimization of urban agglomeration, the development proposals for the BTH were proposed.

城市用地密度分布及其演化:形态模型和过程模型的对比

研究目的:深入分析城市用地密度的空间分布及其演化特征,揭示城市空间结构特征与发展规律。研究方法:圈层分析法,形态模型(ULD)和过程模型(GMP)。研究结果:(1)城市用地密度从城市中心向外逐渐非线性衰减,呈现反S形分布,城市中心吸引和土地资源稀缺性是其形成的主要原因;(2)快速城市化时期城市郊区增长速度快于核心区,导致城市紧凑度下降,突显了合理管控城市边界的重要性;(3)城市紧凑度在城市化过程中表现出先下降后回升趋势,反映了从分散扩张到集中利用的空间模式转变;(4)对于多中心等复杂形态城市,引入新参数可以进一步提升过程模型的拟合优度。研究结论:本文揭示了城市用地密度空间衰减的形态特征和过程机理,形态和过程模型为定量理解城市用地密度空间格局提供了有效工具。

国土空间规划视角下城乡融合发展实施路径研究——以南充高坪城乡融合片为例

国土空间规划成为当前推进城乡融合发展的重要举措。以南充高坪城乡融合片为例,通过梳理其现状特征,并剖析其目前面临的主要问题,在此基础上契合相关规划、政策关于城乡融合、乡村振兴等发展要求,提出城乡融合片的发展目标、定位以及实现城乡融合的实施路径,为其它地区城乡融合发展提供参考。

城市路网结构与用地功能关联分析

为辅助城市道路规划与土地利用规划布局,以武汉都市发展区为研究区,综合利用核密度估计法、多中心评价模型和空间相关分析划定研究尺度,挖掘路网结构与城市用地功能的空间关联特征。结果表明,不同尺度下路网结构中心性指标与城市用地功能利用强度均呈显著正相关,局部空间集聚特征明显,主要呈现高—高集聚、低—低集聚的空间关联模式;公共管理与公共服务设施用地功能、交通设施用地功能对路网结构中心性的依赖性较强,而工业用地功能的依赖性较弱;研究单元可划分为单一功能型区域与混合功能型区域,单一功能型区域布局受邻近度影响较大,混合功能型区域布局对邻近度与平直性的依赖性更强。研究结果可为城市重要项目选址和用地功能布局提供参考。

长株潭城市群生态绿心地区乡村建设用地减量策略研究

随着我国土地供需矛盾的日益突出,建设用地从“宽供给”逐渐走向“总量减量、盘活存量”发展的新阶段。基于长株潭城市群生态绿心地区乡村建设用地持续蔓延扩张,用地规模难以控制的问题,本文通过总结我国城乡建设用地政策演变与相关实践经验,以长株潭城市群生态绿心地区为例,深度剖析乡村建设用地减量发展面临的困境,并从规划编制体系、具体实施路径、政策创新三个方面提出减量化策略,即“完善规划编制,构建‘全链条’减量治理体系”、“精准识别减量区域,推进‘精细化’减量实施路径”、“创新减量政策,探索‘生态+减量’协同治理模式”,以期为我国跨区域城郊地区乡村空间治理提供参考。

城市多中心结构下的土地使用多情景发展布局

城市多中心结构和距离主中心、次中心的区位是影响土地使用演变的重要因素。随着多中心结构成为城市空间重要发展战略,相对于城市主中心,距离就业次中心的区位因素需要在土地使用变化模拟中加以考虑。以上海市为例,通过土地使用模拟探讨城市多中心空间结构对土地使用演变的影响。通过手机位置数据识别就业次中心,分析就业次中心对土地使用演变的影响。研究发现,除了交通、社会经济、距离城市主中心的区位等因素,距离就业次中心的区位也是影响土地使用演变的重要因素。根据识别的就业次中心替换历史年份的就业次中心,对未来土地使用进行推演,发现就业次中心会带来周边商业用地的集聚。同时,将相对于城市主中心、就业次中心的区位因素纳入土地使用推演考虑,研究城市多中心结构对土地使用演变的影响,对于城市多中心结构优化及用地发展布局规划具有重要意义。

城乡融合背景下村镇建设用地“扩张-消失”多情景模拟——以洛阳市为例

研究目的:从当前村镇建设用地“既拆又建”现象出发,聚焦城乡融合背景下村镇建设格局演变规律,以洛阳市为例,开展2020-2030年村镇建设用地“扩张—消失”多情景模拟研究,为大城市村镇建设用地差别化管理提供决策依据。研究方法:PLUS模型、形态学空间格局分析、多情景设定。研究结果:(1)区位条件因素在村镇建设用地“扩张—消失”中起基础性作用,距离耕地、高速公路的远近对扩张与消失变化的影响较大,贡献度均超过16%。(2)2020-2030年洛阳市村镇建设用地扩张与消失规模以及格局差异明显。在规模上“扩张”与“消失”面积比例约为2∶1;在格局上“扩张”斑块类型以边缘、支线及孤岛为主,“消失”斑块类型则以核心区和边缘占优。(3)4种情景下研究区村镇建设用地均表现为大规模零碎式扩张与小规模集中式收缩。其中,耕地保护情景中孤岛占比最少(9.93%),空间上连通性和整体性最优,未来应进一步充分考虑耕地保护情景。研究结论:亟需秉持村镇建设用地以优化存量换取增量的理念,均衡协调扩张和消失的规模、形态及其综合效益,针对主要驱动因素实施差别化管理,实施“一村一策”缓解村镇建设用地低效利用困境。

县域土地利用隐性转型对城乡融合发展的影响——基于城乡空间结构的中介效应视角

研究土地利用隐性转型对城乡融合发展的影响机制,对实现中国式现代化具有重要意义。本文基于2010-2021年江苏省县域面板数据,通过中介效应模型,实证研究城乡空间结构在土地利用隐性转型和城乡融合发展关系中的中介作用。研究表明,土地利用隐性转型能显著促进城乡融合发展,但其影响效应随时间推移而逐渐减弱,此外,农机化水平、交通网络密度、人口密度与人均社会消费品零售额能推动城乡融合发展,人均GDP、政府管控与经济外向度则表现为抑制作用;土地利用隐性转型对城乡融合发展的促进效应在三大区域存在差异,影响效应呈现“苏中>苏北>苏南”特征;土地利用隐性转型通过城乡空间结构演变,能够进一步促进城乡融合发展。健全土地利用隐性转型管控体系、优化城乡空间结构、强化区域差异化政策和健全城乡要素流通机制是推动城乡融合发展的重要路径。

农村建设用地多维结构特征分析——以凯里市为例

科学、严谨地对农村建设用地规模进行测算,是划定农村建设用地边界的前置条件,也是进行村庄规划的必要前提,更是乡村振兴需要重点考虑的因素之一。本文根据第三次全国国土调查数据和农业农村遥感监测数据库,应用空间特征法和景观指数法对凯里市农村建设用地的规模结构特征、空间分布特征和景观特征进行多维度量化分析,梳理凯里市农村建设用地存在的主要问题,并提出相应建议,以全面厘清凯里市农村建设用地布局特征,提高土地资源利用效率和管理水平,推进国土空间提质增效。

关于国土空间规划中城乡建设用地统筹的思考

我国经济社会发展呈现出城乡差距逐步缩小但仍存在的趋势,城市化水平提升迅速,城市扩张对土地资源的需求逐年增加,与此同时,农村用地的过度集约利用和城乡建设用地的利用差异也使得城乡土地发展面临一系列挑战,对城乡建设用地的统筹规划显得尤为迫切,如何更好地实现城乡建设用地的统筹发展,已成为当前国土空间规划亟待解决的重要问题。

近代天津洋行的空间演化特征及发展策略研究

洋行是近代外国人在中国经营的商行与机构,其发展策略与空间演化体现了帝国主义对近代中国城市的破坏与重建的双重影响。以天津为例,探讨洋行在城市发展中所扮演的重要角色,并借助历史地理信息系统(HGIS)对其空间演变过程进行可视化分析。结果表明,天津作为近代中国北方的贸易中心城市,吸引大量洋行聚集,形成独特的贸易空间体系。洋行对近代天津城市空间结构的形成与变迁具有多方面的复杂作用,对近代开埠城市的建设与发展产生了深远的影响。

城市空间结构优化与企业创新

作为要素和经济活动在空间上的组织形式,城市空间结构合理与否关系到各类创新要素能否在城市中有效组织、配置和利用,因而也势必会对企业的创新行为产生深刻影响。文章以中国土地市场网每宗交易土地的地理信息和容积率数据测算中国各城市的空间结构,探讨了城市空间结构对企业创新的影响效应。结果显示,城市空间结构优化会通过规模经济效应和空间技术外溢效应推动企业创新,该结果在考虑样本极端值、变换指标测度方法和控制内生性问题后依然较为稳健。进一步研究发现,商服用地和住宅用地空间配置带来的城市空间结构变化有助于促进企业创新,但工矿用地和公共用地配置导致的城市空间结构变化并未对企业创新产生明显影响;地方政府增长竞争导致的过度干预行为弱化了城市空间结构优化的企业创新效应;单中心和多中心城市空间结构的优化均有助于推进企业创新。

湖北省1990年—2020年土地利用时空变化格局及驱动因素研究

湖北省土地利用格局变化与驱动力研究能够对区域协同发展、城乡融合发展提供决策支撑。研究基于湖北省土地利用及覆被变化遥感监测数据,对土地变化速率、空间集聚程度、土地转移方向与数量进行测算,并分层次探究驱动力差异。结果表明:(1)土地变化速率上,两江流域较其他区域活跃,城镇较乡村活跃;(2)各类型土地空间集聚性上,城镇空间逐步增强,农业空间逐步降低;(3)驱动力构成上,乡村比城镇构成模式简单,不具有显著区域差异性;(4)区域差异性上,鄂西受区位、高程等因素的影响更为显著,鄂中、鄂东地区受经济产业结构影响更显著。