Impact of Exercise on Depression in Older Adults:Potential Benefits,Risks,and Appropriate Application Strategies

As the global elderly population increases,depression within this group has become a significant public health concern.Although exercise has been recognized for its potential to improve depression in the elderly,the benefits,risks,and implementation strategies remain contentious.This review attempts to examine the impact of exercise on depression in older adults,including potential benefits,risks,and suggestions for application.Our analysis highlights the benefits of aerobic and resistance training,which can significantly alleviate depressive symptoms and enhance overall quality of life.Despite these benefits,the review acknowledges the complexity of the exercise-depression interaction in the elderly,necessitating personalized exercise regimens.Potential risks,such as muscle and joint pain,are pointed out,emphasizing the importance of tailored,supervised exercise programs.The review calls for future research to focus on identifying the most effective types of exercise and regimens for this population,considering factors such as age,gender,and existing health conditions.Lastly,it advocates for the inclusion of exercise in comprehensive treatment plans for depression in older adults,viewing it as a promising step toward achieving holistic mental health care in a growing demographic.

Optimal Insurance with Background Risk under the Ambiguity and Belief Heterogeneity Structure

In this paper, we discuss the optimal insurance in the presence of background risk while the insured is ambiguity averse and there exists belief heterogeneity between the insured and the insurer. We give the optimal insurance contract when maxing the insured’s expected utility of his/her remaining wealth under the smooth ambiguity model and the heterogeneous belief form satisfying the MHR condition. We calculate the insurance premium by using generalized Wang’s premium and also introduce a series of stochastic orders proposed by [1] to describe the relationships among the insurable risk, background risk and ambiguity parameter. We obtain the deductible insurance is the optimal insurance while they meet specific dependence structures.

Risk Assessment and Optimisation of Blast Mitigation Strategies for Design and Strengthening of Built Infrastructure

A probabilistic risk assessment procedure is developed which can predict risks of explosive blast damage to built infrastructure, and when combined with life-cycle cost analysis, the procedure can be used to optimise blast mitigation strategies. The paper focuses on window glazing since this is a load-capacity system which, when subjected to blast loading, has caused significant damage and injury to building occupants. Structural reliability techniques are used to derive blast reliability curves for annealed and toughened glazing subjected to explosive blast for a variety of threat scenarios. The probabilistic analyses include the uncertainties associated with blast modelling, glazing response and glazing failure criteria. Damage risks are calculated for an individual window and for windows in the facade of a multi-storey commercial building. The paper shows an illustrative example of how this information, when combined with risk-based decision-making criteria, can be used to optimise blast mitigation strategies.

Ischemic Stroke:Therapy of Risk and Benefit

Therapeutic thrombolysis is an immense opportunity in acute stroke care. For the first time, there is a treatment that has a high probability of being effective if given early enough to patients with acute ischemic stroke. However, the risks of intracranial hemorrhage are substantial and as yet the exact indications and contraindications have not been worked out. And indeed how to deliver this treatment in routine clinical practice.

Study on Environmental Risk and Economic Benefits of Rotation Systems in Farmland of Erhai Lake Basin

This study was designed to find out an optimised planting system of reducing non-point （source） pollution by analyzing the reasons and the factors of influence non-point pollution in farmland of Erhai Lake basin. The results showed that incomes, residual nitrogen in soil, and the loss of nitrogen in surface water in rice-garlic system were higher than those in rice-fava bean system. There were positive correlations between the nitrogen loss of farmland, nitrogen inputs, residual nitrogen in soil, and incomes of farmland. Economic benefits and environment benefits are both appropriate, if the area of rice-garlic system would be reduced to 53% and the area of rice-fava bean system increased to 36% of total cropping area in the investigated watershed. Adjustment of planting structure and introduction of reasonable rotation systems is considered an effective measure of controlling agricultural non-point pollution in watersheds of Erhai Lake.

The Benefit Risk Assessment of Consumption of Marine Species Based on Benefit-Risk Analysis for Foods(BRAFO)-tiered Approach

Objective To assess the net health effect caused by the consumption of specific marine species based on Benefit-Risk Analysis for Foods （BRAFO）-tiered approach. Methods Twenty species were collected from the Zhoushan Archipelago, China. Concentrations of n-3 long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids, methyl mercury （MeHg）, and dioxin-like compounds （DLCs） in the samples were analyzed for benefit risk assessment based on BRAFO-tiered approach. Results Based on the BRAFO-tiered approach, reference scenario （no intake） and alternative scenario （intake of specific species of 200 g/week） were determined. The exposure to MeHg/DLCs via alternative scenario of all studied species did not exceed provisional tolerable weekly/monthly intake. However, the adult population with high DLCs exposure in China would significantly exceed the upper limit of DLCs via an additional alternative scenario of some species such as Auxis thazard. The results of deterministic computation showed that alternative scenario of all studied species generated clear net beneficial effects on death prevention and child IQ gain. Conclusion The alternative scenario of all studied species could be recommended to population with average DLCs exposure, and the reference scenario of species with relatively high DLCs concentration could be recommended to population exposed to high DLCs.

Geostructures, dynamics and risk mitigation of high-altitude and long- runout rockslides

Long-runout rockslides at high altitude could cause disaster chain in river basins and destroy towns and major infrasturctures.This paper firstly explores the initiation mechanism of high-altitude and long-runout rockslides.Two types of sliding-prone geostructure models,i.e.the fault control type in orogenic belt and the fold control type in platform area,are proposed.Then,large-scale experimental apparatus and associated numerical simulations are conducted to understanding the chain-style dynamics of rockslide-debris avalanche-debris flow.The results reveal the fragmentation effects,the rheological behaviors and the boundary layer effect of long-runout avalanche-debris flow.The dynamic character-istics of quasi-static-transition-inertia state and solid-liquid coupling in rapid movement of rockslide-debris avalanche-debris flow are investigated.Finally,the risk mitigation strategy of the non-structure and structure for resilient energy dissipation are illustrated for initiation,transition and deposition zones.The structural prevention and mitigation methods have been successfully applied to the high-altitude and long-runout rockslides in Zhouqu and Maoxian of the Wenchuan earthquake zone,as well as the other major geohazards in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its adjacent areas.

Study of evaluation method for the overseas oil and gas investment based on risk compensation

The overseas oil and gas investment evaluation is one of the core tasks in overseas investment of oil and gas companies,among which risk evaluation and benefit evaluation are the most important.This paper sets forth transmission paths of risk factors to the investment benefit by identifying 14 overseas oil and gas investment risks in four categories.On the basis of the concept of risk compensation,different compensation mechanisms specific to each risk are designed.The risk and benefit are integrated objectively to develop a comprehensive evaluation model by correcting the recoverable reserve,adjusting benefit evaluation parameters such as investments on exploration and development,and compensating for the changes in risk factors with time through dynamic discount rate.Moreover,two cases studies,namely the evaluations of Project A in Sudan and comparison among Blocks A–G,are used to describe usage method and applicable scope of such evaluation model,respectively.According to the results,oil price is a key influencing factor for enterprise internal risk and industrial risk.Risk compensation reduces comprehensive benefit of overseas oil and gas investment and undermines the investment feasibility and priority of blocks.The research findings of this paper are free from the effects of some subject factors and avoid multi-objective decision making,and also avoid the undesired repeated calculation of risk factors.

Risk Assessment and Service Benefit Evaluation of Forestry Meteorological Disasters in Guangxi

In order to strengthen the construction of forestry meteorological service capacity and improve the quality of forestry meteorological services,the national forestry meteorological disaster risk survey and service benefit assessment were carried out from November 2016 to May2017. A total of 196 risk sites in Guangxi were collected by means of questionnaire survey,expert evaluation and field survey. The results showed that fire,pest and wind hazards are the main types of risk points in Guangxi. The survey showed that there were 77 monitoring stations around the disaster risk sites belonging to the Forestry Sector,which mainly monitor fire hazards,while other disasters had no monitoring point yet. Early warning facilities were still constantly improving. The meteorological disasters that affecting forestry production were drought,gale,and heavy rainfall,and the main meteorological hazard factors were temperature,wind speed,and precipitation. Forest fire prevention,forestry resources development and utilization,forestation and tending demand for meteorological services were relatively large. It was hoped that forestry meteorological service products would be obtained through telephone,SMS and early warning systems. In addition,experts objectivly evaluated the contribution rate of meteorological services in Guangxi. The contribution rate of forest meteorological services in the whole region was8. 41%. The scale of Guangxi's total forestry output value was 31. 478 billion yuan in 2016. According to the calculation of this value,the service benefit value had reached 2. 647 billion yuan. In conclusion,strengthening the cooperation in forestry meteorological monitoring,technology development,and emergency response,and further improving forestry meteorological services and effective reducing forestry disaster losses are the top priorities of the meteorological department.

Study on Changes of Industrial Structure and Its Ecological Environment Benefit in Shaanxi Province

[Objective] To reduce influences of adjustment of regional industrial structure on ecological environment,promote coordinated development of regional economy and ecological environment,and improve the relationship between human beings and natural environment. [Method]Based on the statistical data of Shaanxi Province during 1978- 2013,the ecological environmental impact index and effect index of industrial structure in Shaanxi Province were calculated,and then the ecological environment benefit of changes in industrial structure in Shaanxi Province from1978 to 2013 was assessed quantitatively. [Result]The impact of changes in industrial structure on ecological environment in Shaanxi Province was moderate,but later changes in industrial structure had greater influences on ecological environment than before. [Conclusion]Industrial structure in Shaanxi Province should be optimized further to ensure the healthy development of ecological environment.

The Seismogenic Structure and Deformation Mechanism of the Lushan(MW 6.6) Earthquake, Sichuan, China

On April 20 th, 2013, an earthquake of magnitude MW 6.6 occurred at Lushan of Sichuan on the southern segment of the Longmenshan fault zone, with no typical coseismic surface rupture. This work plotted an isoseismal map of the earthquake after repositioning over 400 post–earthquake macro–damage survey points from peak ground acceleration（PGA） data recorded by the Sichuan Digital Strong Earthquake Network. This map indicates that the Lushan earthquake has a damage intensity of IX on the Liedu scale, and that the meizoseismal area displays an oblate ellipsoid shape, with its longitudinal axis in the NE direction. No obvious directivity was detected. Furthermore, the repositioning results of 3323 early aftershocks, seismic reflection profiles and focal mechanism solutions suggests that the major seismogenic structure of the earthquake was the Dayi Fault, which partly defines the eastern Mengshan Mountain. This earthquake resulted from the thrusting of the Dayi Fault, and caused shortening of the southern segment of the Longmenshan in the NW–SE direction. Coseismal rupture was also produced in the deep of the Xinkaidian Fault. Based on the above seismogenic model and the presentation of coseismic surface deformation, it is speculated that there is a risk of more major earthquakes occurring in this region.

Coordinated optimal allocation of water resources and industrial structure in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions of China

Optimizing the allocation of water resources is critical for promoting the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and coordinated development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions of China.Based on specific regional and water conditions,to strengthen the constraints on water resources,the“three-step”adaptive management approach of“scheme design-scheme diagnosis-scheme optimization”of water resource allocation are adopted to facilitate the coordinated optimal allocation of water resources and industrial structure in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions.First,from the level of overall industry,a water resource allocation scheme for the regions is designed by applying the master-slave hierarchical mode and a bi-level optimal model to determine the ideal amount of water resource allocation for the regions and respective industries.Second,the diagnostic criteria of spatial balance,structural matching,and coordinated development are constructed to determine the rationality of the water resource allocation scheme.Then a benefit compensation function with water market transactions is developed,to adaptively adjust the water resource allocation scheme.Finally,the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure are promoted to improve water consumption efficiency and the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions.The study can provide reference for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions to realize the comprehensive optimal allocation of water resources in the regions and improve the adaptability of water resources and industrial structure optimization.

The Crust-mantle Structure and Seismic Risk in Tangyin Graben and Its Adjacent Area

1-D and 2-D calculation and interpretation are carried out with the DSS data from the western section of Heze-Changzhi profile and the southern section of Zhengzhou-Jinan profile. 2-D velocity structure is determined in Tangyin graben and its adjacent area. The result shows that velocity structure of the crust and upper mantle is obviously different in vertical and lateral directions. Crustal thickness varies apparently in this area, and there are local low velocity blocks in the interior crust. The swelling M-discontinuity corresponds to Tangyin graben and Moho depth at the highest swelling position is 31 km. Toward the east, its depth gradually increases to 32 km in Xunxian swelling; toward the west, M-discontinuity becomes a steep zone at the piedmont uplift of Taihang Mountain and reaches 40 km at depth near Changzhi. Through analyzing the relationship between historical earthquakes and deep structure in North China, we infer that seismic risk exists in Tangyin graben and its adjacent area.

Cost-Benefit Assessment of Inspection and Repair Planning for Ship Structures Considering Corrosion Model Uncertainty

Owing to high costs and unnecessary inspections necessitated by the traditional inspection planning for ship structures, the risk-based inspection and repair planning should be investigated for the most cost-effective inspection. This paper aims to propose a cost-benefit assessment model of risk-based inspection and repair planning for ship structures subjected to corrosion deterioration. Then, the benefit-cost ratio is taken to be an index for the selection of the optimal inspection and repair strategy. The planning problem is formulated as an optimization problem where the benefit-cost ratio for the expected lifetime is maximized with a constraint on the minimum acceptalbe reliability index. To account for the effect of corrosion model uncertainty on the cost-benefit assessment, two corrosion models, namgly, Paik＇ s model and Guedes Soares＇ model, are adopted for analysis. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the proposed method. Sensitivity studies are also providet. The results indicate that the proposed method of risk-based cost-benefit analysis can effectively integrate the economy with reliability of the inspection and repair planning. A balance can be achieved between the risk cost and total expected inspection and repair costs with the proposed method, which is very. effective in selecting the optimal inspection and repair strategy. It is pointed out that the corrosion model uncertainty and parametric uncertaintg have a significant impact on the cost-benefit assessment of inspection and repair planning.

Co-Benefits and Risks of Implementation of Forestry Activities for Climate Change Mitigation in India

Implementation of forestry activities as a climate change mitigation option is likely to result in a range of outcomes in addition to carbon sequestration and these include changes with respect to environmental, social and economic aspects. These impacts to the extent when positive are deemed “co-benefit” and if adverse and uncertain, imply risk. It is important to recognize that implementation of forestry mitigation activities can have varied environmental, socio-economic co-benefits and/or risks. Further, there is no general agreement on attribution of co-benefits and risks to specific forestry mitigation activities. An overarching risk to mitigation potential that could be realised by implementation of forestry activities is climate change. But, overall, forestry mitigation activities also contribute to the sustainable development agenda. Maximizing co-benefits of forestry mitigation measures can increase efficiency in achieving the objectives of other international agreements.

Benefit-Risk Assessment for PD-1/PD-L1 Inhibitors in the Treatment of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Objective To explore the benefits and risks of PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors Atezolizumab and Nivolumab in the treatment of non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer and provide some references for clinicians.Methods Based on the data results of relevant studies published by ClinicalTrical.gov in the US clinical trial database and foreign peer-reviewed journals,the internationally recognized multi-criteria decision analysis(MCDA)model was used to assess the benefit and risk of PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors for non-squamous non-small lung cancer comprehensively.Finally,a sensitivity analysis was performed to test the sensitivity of the weight to the evaluation.Results and Conclusion The benefit-risk evaluation result of Atezolizumab for the treatment of non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer is better than that of Nivolumab.Specifically,Atezolizumab has more benefits than Nivolumab with a lower risk.The results of MCDA model in drug benefit and risk evaluation are easy to understand.However,the selection of indicators in the model and the degree of data acquisition are limited.The evaluation results of the MCDA model should be comprehensively viewed with other evaluations to make decisions objectively.

PRICING EUROPEAN OPTION IN A DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL JUMP-DIFFUSION MODEL WITH TWO MARKET STRUCTURE RISKS AND ITS COMPARISONS

Using Fourier inversion transform, P.D.E. and Feynman-Kac formula, the closedform solution for price on European call option is given in a double exponential jump-diffusion model with two different market structure risks that there exist CIR stochastic volatility of stock return and Vasicek or CIR stochastic interest rate in the market. In the end, the result of the model in the paper is compared with those in other models, including BS model with numerical experiment. These results show that the double exponential jump-diffusion model with CIR-market structure risks is suitable for modelling the real-market changes and very useful.

Benefit allocation model of distributed photovoltaic power generation vehicle shed and energy storage charging pile based on integrated weighting-Shapley method

In this study,to develop a benefit-allocation model,in-depth analysis of a distributed photovoltaic-powergeneration carport and energy-storage charging-pile project was performed;the model was developed using Shapley integrated-empowerment benefit-distribution method.First,through literature survey and expert interview to identify the risk factors at various stages of the project,a dynamic risk-factor indicator system is developed.Second,to obtain a more meaningful risk-calculation result,the subjective and objective weights are combined,the weights of the risk factors at each stage are determined by the expert scoring method and entropy weight method,and the interest distribution model based on multi-dimensional risk factors is established.Finally,an example is used to verify the rationality of the method for the benefit distribution of the charging-pile project.The results of the example indicate that the limitations of the Shapley method can be reasonably avoided,and the applicability of the model for the benefit distribution of the charging-pile project is verified.

Study on Antibiotic Prophylactic Use Behavior and Influencing Factors of Livestock and Poultry Breeding Farms and Households from Risk Cognitive Perspective

Based on the theory of planned behavior( TPB),Taking 399 livestock and poultry farms and households in Shandong Province as samples,risk cognitive variables were introduced. Besides,with the aid of the structural equation model( SEM) and partial least squares method( PLS),through an empirical analysis on antibiotic prophylactic behavior of livestock and poultry breeding farms and households in the context of " antibiotic free" production,the response mechanism of " antibiotic free" production was explored. Results indicated that the use of antibiotic prophylaxis by livestock and poultry farms and households is still very common. In the observation samples,61. 4% clearly expressed they would use antibiotic prophylaxis; the understanding of hazard of improper antibiotic prophylaxis was inadequate,only 32. 3% breeding households believed that the overuse of antibiotic prophylaxis is the main reason leading to excessive drug residue in animal products. This study was in line with the process of deduction of TPB. The breeding households' reduction of antibiotic prophylaxis is influenced by their intentions,while the intention is influenced by the attitude,subjective norms and perceptual behavior control; different risks have different influences,but most risks have greater influence on perceptual behavior control,because the perceptual behavior control determines whether breeding households have the ability of implementing the corresponding behavior.

Risk Based Optimal Inspection and Repair Planning for Ship Structures Subjected to Corrosion Deterioration

A framework of risk based inspection and repair planning was presented to optimize for the ship structures subjected to corrosion deterioration. The planning problem was formulated as an optimization problem where the expected lifetime costs were minimized with a constraint on the minimum acceptable reliability index. The safety margins were established for the inspection events, the repair events and the failure events for ship structures. Moreover, the formulae were derived to calculate failure probabilities and repair probabilities. Based on them, a component subjected to corrosion is investigated for illustration of the process of selecting the optimal inspection and repair strategy. Furthermore, some sensitivity studies were provided. The results show that the optimal inspection instants should take place before the reliability index reaches the minimum acceptable reliability index. The optimal target failure probability is 10 -3 . In addition, a balance can be achieved between the risk cost and total expected inspection and repair costs by means of the risk-based optimal inspection and repair method, which is very effective in selecting the optimal inspection and repair strategy.