Risk assessment of high-speed railway CTC system based on improved game theory and cloud model

Purpose-In order to solve the problem of inaccurate calculation of index weights,subjectivity and uncertainty of index assessment in the risk assessment process,this study aims to propose a scientific and reasonable centralized traffic control(CTC)system risk assessment method.Design/methodologylapproach-First,system-theoretic process analysis(STPA)is used to conduct risk analysis on the CTC system and constructs risk assessment indexes based on this analysis.Then,to enhance the accuracy of weight calculation,the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process(FAHP),fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory(FDEMATEL)and entropy weight method are employed to calculate the subjective weight,relative weight and objective weight of each index.These three types of weights are combined using game theory to obtain the combined weight for each index.To reduce subjectivity and uncertainty in the assessment process,the backward cloud generator method is utilized to obtain the numerical character(NC)of the cloud model for each index.The NCs of the indexes are then weighted to derive the comprehensive cloud for risk assessment of the CTC system.This cloud model is used to obtain the CTC system's comprehensive risk assessment.The model's similarity measurement method gauges the likeness between the comprehensive risk assessment cloud and the risk standard cloud.Finally,this process yields the risk assessment results for the CTC system.Findings-The cloud model can handle the subjectivity and fuzziness in the risk assessment process well.The cloud model-based risk assessment method was applied to the CTC system risk assessment of a railway group and achieved good results.Originality/value-This study provides a cloud model-based method for risk assessment of CTC systems,which accurately calculates the weight of risk indexes and uses cloud models to reduce uncertainty and subjectivity in the assessment,achieving effective risk assessment of CTC systems.It can provide a reference and theoretical basis for risk management of the CTC system.

Risk Assessment of an Environmental Liability in the Commercialization of Hydrocarbons-A Secondary Publication

The risk analysis evaluates the probability of occurrence with the impact of said risks.In the hydrocarbon sector,an environmental liability is an improperly abandoned facility,soil contaminated by spills or others.The objective of this work is to define a risk management plan.The characterization of the residue and the area was carried out.Hazardous events were identified:overflow spill,soil contamination by infiltration,as well as radiant heat and suffocating and toxic fumes from a fire.The matrix method was applied considering the probability of occurrence against vulnerability.The danger of infiltration implied a high level of risk.The risk management plan was drawn up,its main action being the liquidation of the pool and the sanitation of the area.

Analysis of marine ecological compensation for environmental risk caused by chemical spill based on game theory

The problem of marine environmental risk is ultimately the result of game theory between the marine en vironmental managers and the enterprise of potential environmental risk.This paper analyzes the internal economic relationship that whether the"protection"policy is applied between the protection action of marine environmental managers and the chemical enterprise.The result shows that the key factor whether the enterprise adopt the"protec tion"policy or not is the amount of penalty and the government's cost of execution,and the compulsive ecological compensation is obligatory from the angle of stimulating the enterprise of canonical action and adopting the"protec tion"policy.To build the ecological compensation mechanism based on the environmental risk will effectively improve the level of management in sea area and decrease the probability of chemical spill.

Multi-hierarchical fuzzy judgment and nested dominance relation of rough set theory-based environmental risk evaluation for tailings reservoirs

Environmental risk assessment of tailings reservoir assessment system is complex and has many index factors.In order to accurately judge surrounding environmental risks of tailings reservoirs and determinate the corresponding prevention and control work,multi-hierarchical fuzzy judgment and nested dominance relation of rough set theory are implemented to evaluate them and find out the rules of this evaluation system with 14 representative cases.The methods of multi-hierarchical fuzzy evaluation can overall consider each influence factor of risk assessment system and their mutual impact,and the index weight based on the analytic hierarchy process is relatively reasonable.Rough set theory based on dominance relation reduces each index attribute from the top down,largely simplifies the complexity of the original evaluation system,and considers the preferential information in each index.Furthermore,grey correlation theory is applied to analysis of importance of each reducted condition attribute.The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed safety evaluation system and the application potential.

Construction of Public Security Risk Governance System under the View of Risk Society Theory

With the development of economy,China has to fight against the increasing public security risk. The theory of risk society points out that the traditional system of hierarchical management should be transformed into the governance system led by government and participated in by multiple parties to avoid and reduce risk in modern society. In order to achieve modernization of the national governance system and capacity,we have to deal with these two important subjects,that is,what can we learn from the Western risk society theory and how to establish a scientific and efficient public security risk management system based on the characteristics of modern public security risk.

3D Field-Scale Environmental Multimedia System Validation of the Dispersion of Benzene for Trail Road Landfill Site and Its Risk Assessment

In this paper, a new modeling approach incorporating both a new environmental multimedia system (EMS) and the Monte Carlo method (MCM) is developed as a tool for the risk assessment of contaminants. An EMS has been developed and validated by the use of field data and investigation to create a 3D simulation of current conditions of the Trail Road Landfill area. In addition, given the high level of uncertainty associated with EMS practices, the MCM approach is embedded into the developed EMS to deal with vague or imprecise model and site conditions related to uncertainties in the system. In this study, two emission rates were examined for risk assessment of Trail Road Landfill site in the years 2016 and 2026;the data are predicted on the basis of the known production trend from 2001 to 2006. The risk quotient (RQ) factors, combined with present and future rates of chemical pollution, provide spatial and temporal assessment of risk from the leachate in Trail Road Landfill site. Results of the risk assessment approach reveal that as the landfill or oil drilling site becomes depleted, adverse effects on the multimedia environment associated with benzene concentration occur, and the potential risk levels have been quantified for the Trail Road Landfill site. The present study indicates that the dispersion of a large volume of pollutants from the landfill or the oil drilling site poses possible risks to the regional multimedia environment. The new EMS will serve as a risk assessment tool to address the fate and transportation of pollutants in complex multimedia environments. This tool will also be useful in the management of the resulting environmental impacts.

Behavior configuration of tea farmers’ participation in ecotourism environmental responsibility from the perspective of system theory

The coordination and optimization of eco-tourism development and world heritage protection are related to the sustainable development of the two,and the behavior of tea farmers is affected by the multiple subjects of rural production and living system,which has nonlinear and complex characteristics.In view of this,based on the theory of human-land system,this study is using system theory and fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis(fsQCA)to explore the internal mechanism of tea farmers‘environmental responsibility behavior.The results show that:(1)single factor,infrastructure environment perception constitutes a necessary condition for environmental responsibility behavior,and there is equivalence between infrastructure environment perception,Cultural environment perception,external intervention perception and environmental supervision perception.(2)Infrastructure environment perception and cultural environment perception are important internal driving forces for high environmental responsibility behavior,while external intervention perception and environmental supervision perception constitute external traction.(3)Infrastructure environment perception and cultural environment perception exist in all configurations in a single or common form.This provides enlightenment for changing the governance logic of ecotourism and improving the governance performance of ecotourism.

Research on the Relationship Between Environmental and Economic Coupling Systems in Bohai Bay Area Based on a Vector Autoregression(VAR)Model

This study analyzed the impact of land-based contaminants and tertiary industrial structure on economic development in the selected Bohai Bay area,China.Based on panel data spanning 2011-2020,a vector autoregressive(VAR)model is used to analyze and forecast the short-run and long-run relationships between three industrial structures,pollutant discharge,and economic development.The results showed that the environmental index had a long-term cointegration relationship with the industrial structure economic index.Per capital chemical oxygen demand(PCOD)and per capita ammonia nitrogen(PNH_(3)N)had a positive impact on delta per capita GDP(dPGDP),while per capita solid waste(PSW),the secondary industry rate(SIR)and delta tertiary industry(dTIR)had a negative impact on dPGDP.The VAR model under this coupling system had stability and credibility.The impulse response results showed that the short-term effect of the coupling system on dPGDP was basically consistent with the Granger causality test results.In addition,variance decomposition was used in this study to predict the long-term impact of the coupling system in the next ten periods(i.e.,ten years).It was found that dTIR had a great impact on dPGDP,with a contribution rate as high as 74.35%in the tenth period,followed by the contribution rate of PCOD up to 3.94%,while the long-term contribution rates of PSW,SIR and PNH3N were all less than 1%.The results show that the government should support the development of the tertiary industry to maintain the vitality of economic development and prevent environmental deterioration.

Arsenic and fluoride co-enrichment of groundwater in the loess areas and associated human health risks:A case study of Dali County in the Guanzhong Basin

This study aims to reveal the occurrence and origin of typical groundwater with high arsenic and fluoride concentrations in the loess area of the Guanzhong Basin—a Neogene faulted basin.Key findings are as follows:(1)Groundwater samples with high arsenic and fluoride concentrations collected from the loess area and the terraces of the Weihe River accounted for 26%and 30%,respectively,of the total samples,with primary hydrochemical type identified as HCO_(3)-Na.The karst and sand areas exhibit relatively high groundwater quality,serving as preferred sources for water supply.It is recommended that local governments fully harness groundwater in these areas;(2)groundwater with high arsenic and fluoride concentrations in the loess area and the alluvial plain of rivers in Dali County is primarily distributed within the Guanzhong Basin,which represents the drainage zone of groundwater;(3)arsenic and fluoride in groundwater originate principally from natural and anthropogenic sources;(4)the human health risk assessments reveal that long-term intake of groundwater with high arsenic and fluoride concentrations pose cancer or non-cancer risks,which are more serious to kids compared to adults.This study provides a theoretical basis for the prevention and treatment of groundwater with high arsenic and fluoride concentrations in loess areas.

Contract Mechanism of Water Environment Regulation for Small and Medium Sized Enterprises Based on Optimal Control Theory

The small and scattered enterprise pattern in the county economy has formed numerous sporadic pollution sources, hindering the centralized treatment of the water environment, increasing the cost and difficulty of treatment. How enterprises can make reasonable decisions on their water environment behavior based on the external environment and their own factors is of great significance for scientifically and effectively designing water environment regulation mechanisms. Based on optimal control theory, this study investigates the design of contractual mechanisms for water environmental regulation for small and medium-sized enterprises. The enterprise is regarded as an independent economic entity that can adopt optimal control strategies to maximize its own interests. Based on the participation of multiple subjects including the government, enterprises, and the public, an optimal control strategy model for enterprises under contractual water environmental regulation is constructed using optimal control theory, and a method for calculating the amount of unit pollutant penalties is derived. The water pollutant treatment cost data of a paper company is selected to conduct empirical numerical analysis on the model. The results show that the increase in the probability of government regulation and public participation, as well as the decrease in local government protection for enterprises, can achieve the same regulatory effect while reducing the number of administrative penalties per unit. Finally, the implementation process of contractual water environmental regulation for small and medium-sized enterprises is designed.

The Application of Transaction Cost Theory in Supply Chain Management

In the context of globalization and digitalization, the application of transaction cost theory in supply chain management has become increasingly important. As business environments grow more complex, enterprises face challenges in effectively managing supply chain transaction costs. This paper systematically explores the application of transaction cost theory in supply chain management, covering key areas such as supplier selection, supply chain integration, and risk management. The research finds that supplier evaluation models based on transaction costs can help enterprises make more comprehensive selection decisions. In terms of supply chain integration, transaction cost theory provides important guidance for vertical integration decisions and the design of collaboration mechanisms. The application of digital technologies has both reduced traditional transaction costs and introduced new cost considerations. Faced with emerging risks such as cybersecurity and geopolitical issues, enterprises need to adopt dynamic transaction cost management strategies. In the future, the application of transaction cost theory in supply chain management will likely place greater emphasis on interdisciplinary integration and sustainable development, providing theoretical support for enterprises to achieve efficient, flexible, and sustainable supply chain management in the changing global business environment.

Effect of Phopshate Fertilizer and Manure on Crop Yield, Soil P Accumulation, and the Environmental Risk Assessment

Phosphorus （P） applied from fertilizer and manure is important in increasing crop yield and soil fertility; however, excessive uses of phosphate fertilizer and manure may also increase P loss from agricultural soils, posing environmental impact. A long term experiment was conducted on a calcareous soil （meadow cinnamon） in Hebei Province, China, from 2003 to 2006 to investigate the effects of phosphate fertilizer and manure on the yield of Chinese cabbage, soil P accumulation, P sorption saturation, soluble P in runoff water, and P leaching. P fertilizer （P2O5） application at a rate of 360 kg ha^-1 or manure of 150 t ha^-1 significantly increased Chinese cabbage yield as compared to the unfertilized control. However, no significant yield response was found with excessive phosphate or manure application. Soil Olsen-P, soluble P, bioavailable P, the degree of phosphorus sorption saturation in top soil layer （0-20 cm）, and soluble P in runoff water increased significantly with the increase of phosphate fertilizer and manure application rates, whereas the maximum phosphorus sorption capacity （Qm） decreased with the phosphate fertilizer and manure application rates. Soil Olsen-P and soluble P also increased significantly in the sub soil layer （20-40 cm） with the high P fertilizer and manure rates. It indicates that excessive P application over crop demand can lead to a high environmental risk owing to the enrichment of soil Olsen-P, soluble P, bioavailable P, and the degree of phosphorus sorption saturation in agricultural soils.

Study on Environmental Risk and Economic Benefits of Rotation Systems in Farmland of Erhai Lake Basin

This study was designed to find out an optimised planting system of reducing non-point （source） pollution by analyzing the reasons and the factors of influence non-point pollution in farmland of Erhai Lake basin. The results showed that incomes, residual nitrogen in soil, and the loss of nitrogen in surface water in rice-garlic system were higher than those in rice-fava bean system. There were positive correlations between the nitrogen loss of farmland, nitrogen inputs, residual nitrogen in soil, and incomes of farmland. Economic benefits and environment benefits are both appropriate, if the area of rice-garlic system would be reduced to 53% and the area of rice-fava bean system increased to 36% of total cropping area in the investigated watershed. Adjustment of planting structure and introduction of reasonable rotation systems is considered an effective measure of controlling agricultural non-point pollution in watersheds of Erhai Lake.

Research on Risk Prevention and Resolution Strategies of College Network Ideology in the Context of the Internet

With the rapid development of the Internet,the network ideology of colleges and universities is facing severe challenges.This paper deeply analyzes the root of the risk of network ideology and makes a specific investigation of the status quo of network public opinion in colleges and universities.On this basis,the study explores and puts forward a series of targeted risk prevention and resolution strategies,aiming at providing a systematic solution for the network ideology security of colleges and universities.In this paper,with the combination of theory and practice as the path,we verify the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed strategy through the analysis of the implementation effect of the strategy.This study also provides theoretical support and practical guidance for the prevention and control of ideological risks and public opinion guidance in universities under the network environment,which has important practical significance.With the continuous progress of network technology,the threats to the network ideology of colleges and universities are increasing.For example,the spread of false information has become a serious problem affecting the security of college network ideology.

Risk assessment of water security in Haihe River Basin during drought periods based on D-S evidence theory

The weights of the drought risk index （DRI）, which linearly combines the reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability, are difficult to obtain due to complexities in water security during drought periods. Therefore, drought entropy was used to determine the weights of the three critical indices. Conventional simulation results regarding the risk load of water security during drought periods were often regarded as precise. However, neither the simulation process nor the DRI gives any consideration to uncertainties in drought events. Therefore, the Dempster-Shafer （D-S） evidence theory and the evidential reasoning algorithm were introduced, and the DRI values were calculated with consideration of uncertainties of the three indices. The drought entropy and evidential reasoning algorithm were used in a case study of the Haihe River Basin to assess water security risks during drought periods. The results of the new DRI values in two scenarios were compared and analyzed. It is shown that the values of the DRI in the D-S evidence algorithm increase slightly from the original results of Zhang et al. （2005）, and the results of risk assessment of water security during drought periods are reasonable according to the situation in the study area. This study can serve as a reference for further practical application and planning in the Haihe River Basin, and other relevant or similar studies.

Risk assessment model of tunnel water inrush based on improved attribute mathematical theory

Tunnel water inrush is one of the common geological disasters in the underground engineering construction.In order to effectively evaluate and control the occurrence of water inrush,the risk assessment model of tunnel water inrush was proposed based on improved attribute mathematical theory.The trigonometric functions were adopted to optimize the attribute mathematical theory,avoiding the influence of mutation points and linear variation zones in traditional linear measurement functions on the accuracy of the model.Based on comprehensive analysis of various factors,five parameters were selected as the evaluation indicators for the model,including tunnel head pressure,permeability coefficient of surrounding rock,crushing degree of surrounding rock,relative angle of joint plane and tunnel section size,under the principle of dimension rationality,independence,directness and quantification.The indicator classifications were determined.The links among measured data were analyzed in detail,and the objective weight of each indicator was determined by using similar weight method.Thereby the tunnel water inrush risk assessment model is established and applied in four target segments of two different tunnels in engineering.The evaluation results and the actual excavation data agree well,which indicates that the model is of high credibility and feasibility.

Investigation of the Interactive,Intimidating Relation Between Urbanization and the Environment in an Arid Area Based on Grey System Theory

Taking the Hexi Corridor in western China as an example, this paper studies the interactive intimate i relation between urbanization and the environment in add areas based on the grey system theory. The results show that the grey relational degree between urbanization and the environment is low in the agriculture-oriented cities, modest in the tourism-oriented cities and great in the industry-oriented cities. The changing trend of coupling degree between urbanization and the environment does not entirely agree with that of urbanization or the environment. It showed fluctuating trends, which reflects the compactness and properties of the different stages of the coupling states between urbanization and the environment. In order to achieve a harmonious development with the environment in add areas, traditional development ideas about urbanization should be revised and more attention should be paid to the effect of restriction of water resources and the ecological environment on the development of the economy and society.

Risk Assessment of Agricultural Products Supply-Chain Finance Based on D-S Theory

Agricultural products supply-chain finance, as one of the solutions to the issue of “capital problems” of agriculture, countryside and farmers, has proposed a kind of characteristics model to assess the risk of agricultural production, processing and marketing, which can improve the issue of farmers and enterprises lacking of funds. This model is proposed on the basis of uncertain information processing method of D-S theory and its data combination rules, combined with the “discount rate” correction model, and it includes a risk assessment index system of agricultural products supply-chain finance, fully considering the five aspects of production, processing, marketing, cooperation of supply chain and collateral. At last, a taro supply chain is taken for example. And the risk assessment of its supply-chain finance based on this model has been discussed in detail. And the result has proved that the model and its algorithm are practical and feasible.

Application of extension theory in risk zoning of debris flow in Beijing

The occurrence of debris flow is affected by many factors. Risk zoning of debris flow plays a vital role in the early-warning and prediction of abrupt geological hazards, and exploration of new method is needed in the early-warning and prediction of geological hazards. The extension theory is a new method to solve contradiction matters. Based on extension theory, AHP and GIS, the risk zoning model of debris flow was established in this paper. The result of this research provides a new way in the risk zoning, early-warning and prediction of debris flow

Determination of Weak Points Based on Risk Theory and Application to Transmission Network Planning

In the traditional power transmission network planning,deterministic analysis methods are widely used.In such methods,all contingencies are deemed to have the same occurrence probability,which is not reasonable.In this paper,risk assessment is introduced to the process of transmission network planning considering the probabilistic characteristics of contingencies.Risk indices are given to determine the weak points of the transmission network based on local information,such as bus risk,line overload risk,contingency severity.The indices are calculated by the optimal cost control method based on risk theory,which can help planners to quickly determine weak points in the planning and find solution to them.For simplification,only line overload violation is considered.Finally,the proposed method is validated by an IEEE-RTS test system and a real power system in China from two aspects.In the first case,the original system is evaluated by the proposed method to find the weak points,and then four planning schemes are established,among which the best scheme is selected.In the second case,four initial planning schemes are established by combining the experiences of planners,and after the evaluation by using the proposed method,the best planning scheme is improved based on the information of weak points in the initial schemes,and the risk of improved scheme is reduced from 42 531.86 MW·h per year to 4 431.26 MW·h per year.