Risk assessment of high-speed railway CTC system based on improved game theory and cloud model

Purpose-In order to solve the problem of inaccurate calculation of index weights,subjectivity and uncertainty of index assessment in the risk assessment process,this study aims to propose a scientific and reasonable centralized traffic control(CTC)system risk assessment method.Design/methodologylapproach-First,system-theoretic process analysis(STPA)is used to conduct risk analysis on the CTC system and constructs risk assessment indexes based on this analysis.Then,to enhance the accuracy of weight calculation,the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process(FAHP),fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory(FDEMATEL)and entropy weight method are employed to calculate the subjective weight,relative weight and objective weight of each index.These three types of weights are combined using game theory to obtain the combined weight for each index.To reduce subjectivity and uncertainty in the assessment process,the backward cloud generator method is utilized to obtain the numerical character(NC)of the cloud model for each index.The NCs of the indexes are then weighted to derive the comprehensive cloud for risk assessment of the CTC system.This cloud model is used to obtain the CTC system's comprehensive risk assessment.The model's similarity measurement method gauges the likeness between the comprehensive risk assessment cloud and the risk standard cloud.Finally,this process yields the risk assessment results for the CTC system.Findings-The cloud model can handle the subjectivity and fuzziness in the risk assessment process well.The cloud model-based risk assessment method was applied to the CTC system risk assessment of a railway group and achieved good results.Originality/value-This study provides a cloud model-based method for risk assessment of CTC systems,which accurately calculates the weight of risk indexes and uses cloud models to reduce uncertainty and subjectivity in the assessment,achieving effective risk assessment of CTC systems.It can provide a reference and theoretical basis for risk management of the CTC system.

Risk Assessment of an Environmental Liability in the Commercialization of Hydrocarbons-A Secondary Publication

The risk analysis evaluates the probability of occurrence with the impact of said risks.In the hydrocarbon sector,an environmental liability is an improperly abandoned facility,soil contaminated by spills or others.The objective of this work is to define a risk management plan.The characterization of the residue and the area was carried out.Hazardous events were identified:overflow spill,soil contamination by infiltration,as well as radiant heat and suffocating and toxic fumes from a fire.The matrix method was applied considering the probability of occurrence against vulnerability.The danger of infiltration implied a high level of risk.The risk management plan was drawn up,its main action being the liquidation of the pool and the sanitation of the area.

Research on the Relationship Between Environmental and Economic Coupling Systems in Bohai Bay Area Based on a Vector Autoregression(VAR)Model

This study analyzed the impact of land-based contaminants and tertiary industrial structure on economic development in the selected Bohai Bay area,China.Based on panel data spanning 2011-2020,a vector autoregressive(VAR)model is used to analyze and forecast the short-run and long-run relationships between three industrial structures,pollutant discharge,and economic development.The results showed that the environmental index had a long-term cointegration relationship with the industrial structure economic index.Per capital chemical oxygen demand(PCOD)and per capita ammonia nitrogen(PNH_(3)N)had a positive impact on delta per capita GDP(dPGDP),while per capita solid waste(PSW),the secondary industry rate(SIR)and delta tertiary industry(dTIR)had a negative impact on dPGDP.The VAR model under this coupling system had stability and credibility.The impulse response results showed that the short-term effect of the coupling system on dPGDP was basically consistent with the Granger causality test results.In addition,variance decomposition was used in this study to predict the long-term impact of the coupling system in the next ten periods(i.e.,ten years).It was found that dTIR had a great impact on dPGDP,with a contribution rate as high as 74.35%in the tenth period,followed by the contribution rate of PCOD up to 3.94%,while the long-term contribution rates of PSW,SIR and PNH3N were all less than 1%.The results show that the government should support the development of the tertiary industry to maintain the vitality of economic development and prevent environmental deterioration.

Arsenic and fluoride co-enrichment of groundwater in the loess areas and associated human health risks:A case study of Dali County in the Guanzhong Basin

This study aims to reveal the occurrence and origin of typical groundwater with high arsenic and fluoride concentrations in the loess area of the Guanzhong Basin—a Neogene faulted basin.Key findings are as follows:(1)Groundwater samples with high arsenic and fluoride concentrations collected from the loess area and the terraces of the Weihe River accounted for 26%and 30%,respectively,of the total samples,with primary hydrochemical type identified as HCO_(3)-Na.The karst and sand areas exhibit relatively high groundwater quality,serving as preferred sources for water supply.It is recommended that local governments fully harness groundwater in these areas;(2)groundwater with high arsenic and fluoride concentrations in the loess area and the alluvial plain of rivers in Dali County is primarily distributed within the Guanzhong Basin,which represents the drainage zone of groundwater;(3)arsenic and fluoride in groundwater originate principally from natural and anthropogenic sources;(4)the human health risk assessments reveal that long-term intake of groundwater with high arsenic and fluoride concentrations pose cancer or non-cancer risks,which are more serious to kids compared to adults.This study provides a theoretical basis for the prevention and treatment of groundwater with high arsenic and fluoride concentrations in loess areas.

Contract Mechanism of Water Environment Regulation for Small and Medium Sized Enterprises Based on Optimal Control Theory

The small and scattered enterprise pattern in the county economy has formed numerous sporadic pollution sources, hindering the centralized treatment of the water environment, increasing the cost and difficulty of treatment. How enterprises can make reasonable decisions on their water environment behavior based on the external environment and their own factors is of great significance for scientifically and effectively designing water environment regulation mechanisms. Based on optimal control theory, this study investigates the design of contractual mechanisms for water environmental regulation for small and medium-sized enterprises. The enterprise is regarded as an independent economic entity that can adopt optimal control strategies to maximize its own interests. Based on the participation of multiple subjects including the government, enterprises, and the public, an optimal control strategy model for enterprises under contractual water environmental regulation is constructed using optimal control theory, and a method for calculating the amount of unit pollutant penalties is derived. The water pollutant treatment cost data of a paper company is selected to conduct empirical numerical analysis on the model. The results show that the increase in the probability of government regulation and public participation, as well as the decrease in local government protection for enterprises, can achieve the same regulatory effect while reducing the number of administrative penalties per unit. Finally, the implementation process of contractual water environmental regulation for small and medium-sized enterprises is designed.

Research on Risk Prevention and Resolution Strategies of College Network Ideology in the Context of the Internet

With the rapid development of the Internet,the network ideology of colleges and universities is facing severe challenges.This paper deeply analyzes the root of the risk of network ideology and makes a specific investigation of the status quo of network public opinion in colleges and universities.On this basis,the study explores and puts forward a series of targeted risk prevention and resolution strategies,aiming at providing a systematic solution for the network ideology security of colleges and universities.In this paper,with the combination of theory and practice as the path,we verify the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed strategy through the analysis of the implementation effect of the strategy.This study also provides theoretical support and practical guidance for the prevention and control of ideological risks and public opinion guidance in universities under the network environment,which has important practical significance.With the continuous progress of network technology,the threats to the network ideology of colleges and universities are increasing.For example,the spread of false information has become a serious problem affecting the security of college network ideology.

Integrated water risk early warning framework of the semi-arid transitional zone based on the water environmental carrying capacity (WECC)

Water risk early warning systems based on the water environmental carrying capacity(WECC)are powerful and effective tools to guarantee the sustainability of rivers.Existing work on the early warning of WECC has mainly concerned the comprehensive evaluation of the status quo and lacked a quantitative prejudgement and warning of future overload.In addition,existing quantitative methods for short-term early warning have rarely focused on the integrated change trends of the early warning indicators.Given the periodicity of the socioeconomic system,however,the water environmental system also follows a trend of cyclical fluctuations.Thus,it is meaningful to monitor and use this periodicity for the early warning of the WECC.In this study,we first adopted and improved the prosperity index method to develop an integrated water risk early warning framework.We also constructed a forecast model to qualitatively and quantitatively prejudge and warn about the development trends of the water environmental system.We selected the North Canal Basin(an essential connection among the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region)in China as a case study and predicted the WECC in 25 water environmental management units of the basin in 2018–2023.We found that the analysis of the prosperity index was helpful in predicting the WECC,to some extent.The result demonstrated that the early warning system provided reliable prediction(root mean square error of 0.0651 and mean absolute error of 0.1418),and the calculation results of the comprehensive early warning index(CEWI)conformed to the actual situation and related research in the river basin.From 2008 to 2023,the WECC of most water environmental management units in the basin had improved but with some spatial differences:the CEWI was generally poor in areas with many human disturbances,while it was relatively good in the upstream regions with higher forest and grass covers as well as in the downstream areas with larger water volume.Finally,through a sensitivity analysis of the indicators,we proposed specific management measures for the sustainability of the water environmental system in the North Canal Basin.Overall,the integrated water risk early warning framework could provide an appropriate method for the water environmental administration department to predict the WECC of the basin in the future.This framework could also assist in implementing corresponding management measures in advance,especially for the performance evaluation and the arrangement of key short-term tasks in the River Chief System in China.

The Evaluation of Alternative Risk Control Schemes Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory

Based on the analysis of the evaluation problems associated with the risk control scheme for major engineering projects,the evaluation method of the risk control scheme considering the irrational behavior of evaluation members in fuzzy random environment is proposed.Firstly,a maximum entropy model corresponding to any evaluation member is es-tablished by using triangular fuzzy random variables and grey correlation coefficient in order to obtain the weight of each risk factor of the member.Secondly,a nonlinear programming model is established according to the principle of minimiz-ing deviation to estimate the weight of different evaluation members on the evaluation of alternative risk control schemes.Lastly,the cumulative entropy model is used to calculate the weight of risk control schemes.Cumulative prospect theory obtains the comprehensive prospect utility value of each alternative to determine the optimal alternative.

Analysis of marine ecological compensation for environmental risk caused by chemical spill based on game theory

The problem of marine environmental risk is ultimately the result of game theory between the marine en vironmental managers and the enterprise of potential environmental risk.This paper analyzes the internal economic relationship that whether the"protection"policy is applied between the protection action of marine environmental managers and the chemical enterprise.The result shows that the key factor whether the enterprise adopt the"protec tion"policy or not is the amount of penalty and the government's cost of execution,and the compulsive ecological compensation is obligatory from the angle of stimulating the enterprise of canonical action and adopting the"protec tion"policy.To build the ecological compensation mechanism based on the environmental risk will effectively improve the level of management in sea area and decrease the probability of chemical spill.

Multi-hierarchical fuzzy judgment and nested dominance relation of rough set theory-based environmental risk evaluation for tailings reservoirs

Environmental risk assessment of tailings reservoir assessment system is complex and has many index factors.In order to accurately judge surrounding environmental risks of tailings reservoirs and determinate the corresponding prevention and control work,multi-hierarchical fuzzy judgment and nested dominance relation of rough set theory are implemented to evaluate them and find out the rules of this evaluation system with 14 representative cases.The methods of multi-hierarchical fuzzy evaluation can overall consider each influence factor of risk assessment system and their mutual impact,and the index weight based on the analytic hierarchy process is relatively reasonable.Rough set theory based on dominance relation reduces each index attribute from the top down,largely simplifies the complexity of the original evaluation system,and considers the preferential information in each index.Furthermore,grey correlation theory is applied to analysis of importance of each reducted condition attribute.The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed safety evaluation system and the application potential.

Construction of Public Security Risk Governance System under the View of Risk Society Theory

With the development of economy,China has to fight against the increasing public security risk. The theory of risk society points out that the traditional system of hierarchical management should be transformed into the governance system led by government and participated in by multiple parties to avoid and reduce risk in modern society. In order to achieve modernization of the national governance system and capacity,we have to deal with these two important subjects,that is,what can we learn from the Western risk society theory and how to establish a scientific and efficient public security risk management system based on the characteristics of modern public security risk.

3D Field-Scale Environmental Multimedia System Validation of the Dispersion of Benzene for Trail Road Landfill Site and Its Risk Assessment

In this paper, a new modeling approach incorporating both a new environmental multimedia system (EMS) and the Monte Carlo method (MCM) is developed as a tool for the risk assessment of contaminants. An EMS has been developed and validated by the use of field data and investigation to create a 3D simulation of current conditions of the Trail Road Landfill area. In addition, given the high level of uncertainty associated with EMS practices, the MCM approach is embedded into the developed EMS to deal with vague or imprecise model and site conditions related to uncertainties in the system. In this study, two emission rates were examined for risk assessment of Trail Road Landfill site in the years 2016 and 2026;the data are predicted on the basis of the known production trend from 2001 to 2006. The risk quotient (RQ) factors, combined with present and future rates of chemical pollution, provide spatial and temporal assessment of risk from the leachate in Trail Road Landfill site. Results of the risk assessment approach reveal that as the landfill or oil drilling site becomes depleted, adverse effects on the multimedia environment associated with benzene concentration occur, and the potential risk levels have been quantified for the Trail Road Landfill site. The present study indicates that the dispersion of a large volume of pollutants from the landfill or the oil drilling site poses possible risks to the regional multimedia environment. The new EMS will serve as a risk assessment tool to address the fate and transportation of pollutants in complex multimedia environments. This tool will also be useful in the management of the resulting environmental impacts.

Behavior configuration of tea farmers’ participation in ecotourism environmental responsibility from the perspective of system theory

The coordination and optimization of eco-tourism development and world heritage protection are related to the sustainable development of the two,and the behavior of tea farmers is affected by the multiple subjects of rural production and living system,which has nonlinear and complex characteristics.In view of this,based on the theory of human-land system,this study is using system theory and fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis(fsQCA)to explore the internal mechanism of tea farmers‘environmental responsibility behavior.The results show that:(1)single factor,infrastructure environment perception constitutes a necessary condition for environmental responsibility behavior,and there is equivalence between infrastructure environment perception,Cultural environment perception,external intervention perception and environmental supervision perception.(2)Infrastructure environment perception and cultural environment perception are important internal driving forces for high environmental responsibility behavior,while external intervention perception and environmental supervision perception constitute external traction.(3)Infrastructure environment perception and cultural environment perception exist in all configurations in a single or common form.This provides enlightenment for changing the governance logic of ecotourism and improving the governance performance of ecotourism.

Ecological risk assessment and early warning of heavy metal cumulation in the soils near the Luanchuan molybdenum polymetallic mine concentration area,Henan Province,central China

The Luanchuan molybdenum polymetallic mine concentration area is rich in mineral resources and has a long history of mining.The environmental impact of long-term mining activities cannot be ignored.It is of great significance to study the ecological risk and the accumulation trends of heavy metals in the soil of mining areas for scientific prevention and control of heavy metal pollution.Taking the Taowanbeigou River Basin in the mine concentration area as the research object,the ecological pollution risk and cumulative effect of heavy metals in the soil of the basin were studied by using the comprehensive pollution index method,potential ecological risk assessment method and geoaccumulation index method.On this basis,the cumulative exceeding years of specific heavy metals were predicted by using the early warning model.The comprehensive potential ecological risk of heavy metals in the soil near the Luanchuan mine concentration area is moderate,and the single element Cd is the main ecological risk factor,with a contribution rate of 53.6%.The overall cumulative degrees of Cu and Pb in the soil are“none-moderate”,Zn and Cd are moderate,Mo has reached an extremely strong cumulative level,Hg,As and Cr risks are not obvious,and the overall cumulative risks order is Mo>Cd>Zn>Cu>Pb>Hg.According to the current accumulation rate and taking the risk screening values for soil contamination of agricultural land as the reference standard,the locations over standard rates of Cu,Zn and Cd will exceed 78%in 90years,and the over standard rate of Pb will reach approximately 57%in 200 years.The cumulative exceeding standard periods of As,Cr and Hg are generally long,which basically indicates that these elements do not pose a significant potential threat to the ecological environment.Mining activities will accelerate the accumulation of heavy metals in soil.With the continuous development of mining activities,the potential pollution risk of heavy metals in the soil of mining areas will also increase.

Health Risk Assessment of Employees Exposed to Chlorination By-products of Recreational Water in Large Amusement Parks in Shanghai

Objective Chlorination is often used to disinfect recreational water in large amusement parks;however,the health hazards of chlorination disinfection by-products(DBPs)to occupational populations are unknown.This study aimed to assess the exposure status of chlorinated DBPs in recreational water and the health risks to employees of large amusement parks.Methods Exposure parameters of employees of three large amusement parks in Shanghai were investigated using a questionnaire.Seven typical chlorinated DBPs in recreational water and spray samples were quantified by gas chromatography,and the health risks to amusement park employees exposed to chlorinated DBPs were evaluated according to the WHO's risk assessment framework.Results Trichloroacetic acid,dibromochloromethane,bromodichloromethane,and dichloroacetic acid were detected predominantly in recreational water.The carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks of the five DBPs did not exceed the risk thresholds.In addition,the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks of mixed exposure to DBPs were within the acceptable risk limits.Conclusion Typical DBPs were widely detected in recreational water collected from three large amusement parks in Shanghai;however,the health risks of DBPs and their mixtures were within acceptable limits.

Extreme rain event highlights the lack of governance to face climate change in the Southeastern coast of Brazil

New rainfall records were registered in the southeastern region of Brazil during February 2023.The amount of rain in the north coast region of the State of São Paulo was more than 650 mm in less than two days.Landslides and tragedies with a socioeconomically vulnerable population marked this climatic extreme.The country has a regulatory system that suggests the elaboration and implementation of municipal public policies aimed at territorial organization,environmental conservation,and the prevention of disasters induced by natural hazards.In addition,both federal and state funds earmarked for such hazard's prevention have been underutilized over the last decade.In addition to this current devastating climate episode,other events were registered in this decade,reinforcing that financial governance is a key challenge to face the climate crisis in Brazil.The predicted future extreme events in different regions of Brazil will require a different governance system to minimize social inequality,seek sustainable alternatives for urban environments and manage to adapt cities for the challenges posed by climate change.

Cholinesterase Activity as an Indicator of Health Risks among Kou Valley Farmers

Introduction: Pesticides are currently an essential component of agricultural production techniques for controlling pests and weeds. In Burkina Faso, non-compliance with good practice in the use of pesticides poses a real health problem for the population. This study examines the health risks associated with pesticide management in rice-growing areas. Material and Methods: A field survey was conducted in Bama, involving farmers, focusing on their socio-demographic characteristics, pesticide usage, and health effects. Cholinesterase levels were measured in subsample of farmers using a portable device. Data were analysed using Microsoft Excel, calculating means and percentages for various practices. Health consultations, protection methods, and pesticide management were studied. Erythrocyte acetylcholinesterase activity was compared before and after treatment. Data were categorised into classes based on inhibition levels, and correlation analyses determined relationships between variables such as age, years of experience, and cholinesterase activity. Results: The results indicate that rice cultivation is mainly carried out by a fairly young population, with nearly 63% being under the age of 50. Common poor practices in pesticide use include improper storage and reuse of leftover pesticides. Seven types of pesticides were identified, including organophosphates such as glyphosate, which was used in 26.7% of cases. This organophosphate has resulted in class B poisoning, causing a 30% - 50% reduction in erythrocyte cholinesterase activity. The health effects of pesticide use are felt by agricultural farmers through various symptoms of poisoning. Conclusion: To reduce the occurrence of pesticide poisoning, it is essential to launch information and awareness campaigns among the population and farmers to promote safe practices in pesticide use in Bama, Burkina Faso.

RiskSystem系统在化工园区风险管控中的应用

化工园区历来是环境风险管控的重点区域,RiskSystem系统在化工园区规划环评中也得到较为广泛的利用,系统严格按《建设项目环境风险评价技术导则》要求进行构建,在参数充分的情况下,其界面友好,模拟结果可信,结合卫星定位系统,可对主要风险源实施精细化管理。本文结合化工园区规划环评实际工作,采用RiskSystem系统对园区风险源进行预测评价,并提出园区环境风险管控重点,能够为化工园区规划环评及风险管理工作提供参考。

Potential Risks to the Environment as a Result of Pesticide Handling in the Nanumba-North Municipality, Ghana

The present study deduced the potential risks to the environment as a result of pesticide handling in the Nanumba-North Municipality of the Northern Region of Ghana. Cluster sampling was used to select 30 communities from Nanumba-North Municipality. Simple random sampling and purposive sampling were used respectively to select 7 households from each community and one farmer from each household, giving a sample size of 210 farmers. The instrument used for the study was a questionnaire of respondents. The quantitative data obtained were analyzed using frequencies and percentages. The study concluded that 11 types of pesticides are commonly used by the farmers on their fields, with atrazine (22%) being the most commonly used pesticide which is an herbicide, and deltamethrin (1%) was the least used pesticide which is an insecticide. The study, therefore, recommends that appropriate authorities in the area should inculcate means to enlighten farmers on the best way of pesticide utilization that can beef up the ambition of sustainable agricultural production and desirable environmental conditions.

A Brief Discussion of Audit Risks and Their Causes

As a crucial supervisory department overseeing economic operations,the audit department plays a pivotal role in safeguarding the healthy development of the country’s economy,exposing corruption,and effectively maintaining social and economic peace and stability.The work of auditing involves detecting existing issues,providing remedies,and consistently contributing to national governance.However,as the market economic environment undergoes continuous changes,legal systems advance,and the audit environment becomes more complex,audit risks have gradually gained prominence.The prevention of audit risks has increasingly captured the attention of audit agencies at all levels.This necessitates audit institutions to continually adapt to new challenges,comprehend risks,and exert effective control over them.This article delves into the causes of audit risks,exploring ways to effectively identify and respond to these risks within a complex and ever-changing environment.The objective is to ensure the objectivity and accuracy of audit reports,allowing the audit function to truly serve as an“immune”system,protecting public interests.