Establishing a sense of ritual within tourism consumption scenarios offers tourists the opportunity for interactive engagement.Drawing upon the value co-creation theory,this study constructed an influence mechanism mo...Establishing a sense of ritual within tourism consumption scenarios offers tourists the opportunity for interactive engagement.Drawing upon the value co-creation theory,this study constructed an influence mechanism model to examine tourists'active engagement in the process of co-creating tourism experience values.It employed Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling(PLS-SEM)to empirically test the proposed hypotheses.The findings demonstrate that the model constructed in the present study exhibits robust reliability,validity,and explanatory power.The perception of the sense of ritual in tourism exerts a significant positive influence on tourists’co-creation of tourism experience values,thereby significantly enhancing both the communitas and flow experienced by tourists during their travels.Moreover,such communitas and flow can mediate the influence of the sense of ritual in tourism on tourists’co-creation of tourism experience values.This study contributes to advancing the current research on tourists’co-creation of tourism experience values and the sense of ritual in tourism,thereby providing theoretical foundations for cultivating a sense of ritual within tourism consumption scenarios.展开更多
The weather in Nagano Prefecture, Japan, can be roughly classified into four types according to principal component analysis and k-means clustering. We predicted the extreme values of the maximum daily and hourly prec...The weather in Nagano Prefecture, Japan, can be roughly classified into four types according to principal component analysis and k-means clustering. We predicted the extreme values of the maximum daily and hourly precipitation in Nagano Prefecture using the extreme value theory. For the maximum daily precipitation, the vales of ξ in Matsumoto, Karuizawa, Sugadaira, and Saku were positive;therefore, it has no upper bound and tends to take large values. Therefore, it is dangerous and caution is required. The values of ξ in Nagano, Kisofukushima, and Minamishinano were determined to be zero, therefore, there was no upper limit, the probability of obtaining a large value was low, and caution was required. We predicted the maximum return levels for return periods of 10, 20, 50, and 100 years along with respective 95% confidence intervals in Nagano, Matsumoto, Karuizawa, Sugadaira, Saku, Kisofukushima, and Minamishinano. In Matsumoto, the 100-year return level was 182 mm, with a 95% CI [129, 236]. In Minamishinano, the 100-year return level was 285 mm, with a 95% CI [173, 398]. The 100-year return levels for the maximum daily rainfall were 285, 271, and 271 mm in Minamishinano, Saku, and Karuizawa, respectively, where the changes in the daily maximum rainfall were larger than those at other points. Because these values are large, caution is required during heavy rainfall. The 100-year return levels for the maximum daily and hourly precipitation were similar in Karuizawa and Saku. In Sugadaira, the 100-year return level for a maximum hourly rainfall of 107.2 mm was larger than the maximum daily rainfall. Hence, it is necessary to be careful about short-term rainfall events.展开更多
This paper explores the data theory of value along the line of reasoning epochal characteristics of data-theoretical innovation-paradigmatic transformation and,through a comparison of hard and soft factors and observa...This paper explores the data theory of value along the line of reasoning epochal characteristics of data-theoretical innovation-paradigmatic transformation and,through a comparison of hard and soft factors and observation of data peculiar features,it draws the conclusion that data have the epochal characteristics of non-competitiveness and non-exclusivity,decreasing marginal cost and increasing marginal return,non-physical and intangible form,and non-finiteness and non-scarcity.It is the epochal characteristics of data that undermine the traditional theory of value and innovate the“production-exchange”theory,including data value generation,data value realization,data value rights determination and data value pricing.From the perspective of data value generation,the levels of data quality,processing,use and connectivity,data application scenarios and data openness will influence data value.From the perspective of data value realization,data,as independent factors of production,show value creation effect,create a value multiplier effect by empowering other factors of production,and substitute other factors of production to create a zero-price effect.From the perspective of data value rights determination,based on the theory of property,the tragedy of the private outweighs the comedy of the private with respect to data,and based on the theory of sharing economy,the comedy of the commons outweighs the tragedy of the commons with respect to data.From the perspective of data pricing,standardized data products can be priced according to the physical product attributes,and non-standardized data products can be priced according to the virtual product attributes.Based on the epochal characteristics of data and theoretical innovation,the“production-exchange”paradigm has undergone a transformation from“using tangible factors to produce tangible products and exchanging tangible products for tangible products”to“using intangible factors to produce tangible products and exchanging intangible products for tangible products”and ultimately to“using intangible factors to produce intangible products and exchanging intangible products for intangible products”.展开更多
Nowadays, commercial competition is becoming fiercer and fiercer, and with the globalization proceeding, when a company tries to expand, promote and develop, it needs to adapt itself to the open business society while...Nowadays, commercial competition is becoming fiercer and fiercer, and with the globalization proceeding, when a company tries to expand, promote and develop, it needs to adapt itself to the open business society while not losing its own culture. Since English has been widely used in the world, an effective and suitable English website is essential for a company to use as a kind of advertisement and publicity, where its cultural values are presented.With companies' websites as subjects and Hofstede's cultural dimension theory as the theoretical basis, this study, through text content and data analysis of company profiles,strategies and cultures, tries to find out the tendency of Chinese and American companies on the five cultural value dimensions,which is power distance, uncertainty avoidance, individualism, masculinity and long-term orientation. Accordingly, constructive suggestions are put forward to help appease and avoid misunderstandings, and promote business communication and collaboration.展开更多
In the frame work of chiral perturbation theory, a modified effective Lagrangian for meson-baryon system is constructed, where the SU(3) breaking effect for meson is considered. The difference between physical and c...In the frame work of chiral perturbation theory, a modified effective Lagrangian for meson-baryon system is constructed, where the SU(3) breaking effect for meson is considered. The difference between physical and chiral limlt decay constants is taken into account. Calculated to one 1ooi) at O(p^3), the sigma terms and strangeness contents of baryon octet are obtained.展开更多
Extreme value theory provides methods to analyze the most extreme parts of data. We predicted the ultimate 100 m dash records for men and women for specific periods using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distributi...Extreme value theory provides methods to analyze the most extreme parts of data. We predicted the ultimate 100 m dash records for men and women for specific periods using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The various diagnostic plots, which assessed the accuracy of the GEV model, were well fitted to the 100 m records in the world and Japan, validating the model. The men’s world record had a shape parameter of -0.250 with a 95% confidence interval of [-0.391, -0.109]. The 100 m record had a finite limit and a calculated upper limit was 9.46 s. The return level estimates for the men’s world record were 9.74, 9.62, and 9.58 s with a 95% confidence interval of [9.69, 9.79], [9.54, 9.69], and [9.48, 9.67] for 10-, 100- and 350-year return periods, respectively. In one year, the probability of occurrence for a new world record of men, 9.58 s (Usain Bolt), was 1/350, while that for women, 10.49 s (Florence Griffith-Joyner), was about 1/100, confirming it was more difficult for men to break records than women.展开更多
One of the most important and interesting issues associated with the earthquakes is the long-term trend of the extreme events. Extreme value theory provides methods for analysis of the most extreme parts of data. We e...One of the most important and interesting issues associated with the earthquakes is the long-term trend of the extreme events. Extreme value theory provides methods for analysis of the most extreme parts of data. We estimated the annual maximum magnitude of earthquakes in Japan by extreme value theory using earthquake data between 1900 and 2019. Generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was applied to fit the extreme indices. The distribution was used to estimate the probability of extreme values in specified time periods. The various diagnostic plots for assessing the accuracy of the GEV model fitted to the magnitude of maximum earthquakes data in Japan gave the validity of the GEV model. The extreme value index, <span style="white-space:nowrap;"><span style="white-space:nowrap;"><em>ξ</em></span></span> was evaluated as <span style="white-space:nowrap;"><span style="white-space:nowrap;">−</span></span>0.163, with a 95% confidence interval of [<span style="white-space:nowrap;"><span style="white-space:nowrap;">−</span></span>0.260, <span style="white-space:nowrap;"><span style="white-space:nowrap;">−</span></span>0.0174] by the use of profile likelihood. Hence, the annual maximum magnitude of earthquakes has a finite upper limit. We obtained the maximum return level for the return periods of 10, 20, 50, 100 and 500 years along with their respective 95% confidence interval. Further, to get a more accurate confidence interval, we estimated the profile log-likelihood. The return level estimate was obtained as 7.83, 8.60 and 8.99, with a 95% confidence interval of [7.67, 8.06], [8.32, 9.21] and [8.61, 10.0] for the 10-, 100- and 500-year return periods, respectively. Hence, the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake, which was the largest in the observation history of Japan, had a magnitude of 9.0, and it was a phenomenon that occurs once every 500 year.展开更多
The problem of "life and death" has been a confusing proposition of philosophy since long ago,for which philosophers both at home and abroad take great pains to pursue the answer.The problem of"life and...The problem of "life and death" has been a confusing proposition of philosophy since long ago,for which philosophers both at home and abroad take great pains to pursue the answer.The problem of"life and death"is also attractive for litterateurs.This paper attempts to scrutinize the works of Franz Kafka and based on comments of different critics,simply analyzing the theory of survival and the theory of death and exploring the aesthetic value.Through analysis,the author of this paper concludes that the theory of survival in the works of Kafka tends to express hating of not being favored by chances and the fright and anxiety of the time;on the contrary,the theory of death in his works tends to express worship and belief.Both life and death are expressed vividly in his works,showing the brave pursuit of senior artistic forms of Kafka and the essence of its aesthetic value.展开更多
This paper investigates methods of value-at-risk (VaR) estimation using extreme value theory (EVT). It compares two different estimation methods, 'two-step subsample bootstrap' based on moment estimation and m...This paper investigates methods of value-at-risk (VaR) estimation using extreme value theory (EVT). It compares two different estimation methods, 'two-step subsample bootstrap' based on moment estimation and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), according to their theoretical bases and computation procedures. Then, the estimation results are analyzed together with those of normal method and empirical method. The empirical research of foreign exchange data shows that the EVT methods have good characters in estimating VaR under extreme conditions and 'two-step subsample bootstrap' method is preferable to MLE.展开更多
Assuming that the recently θ+ and other exotic resonances belong to the pentaquark i0 of SU(3)I with J^P = 1/2, we constructed a relativistic effective lagrangian in the frame work of baryon chiral perturbation th...Assuming that the recently θ+ and other exotic resonances belong to the pentaquark i0 of SU(3)I with J^P = 1/2, we constructed a relativistic effective lagrangian in the frame work of baryon chiral perturbation theory. The masses of pentaquarks under isospin symmetry is determined by calculating the propagator to one loop, where the extended on-mass-shell renormalization scheme is applied. Using the experimental data for masses of θ+, Ξ and N, we estimated the mass of Σ and the a terms.展开更多
Click-streams of online shopping are the tracks/trails of interactions between a customer and a vendor.We observe that it is of great importance both in theory and practice to explore a deep analysis method for analyz...Click-streams of online shopping are the tracks/trails of interactions between a customer and a vendor.We observe that it is of great importance both in theory and practice to explore a deep analysis method for analyzing click-stream information of an individual customer in a specific transaction for understanding the bidirectional value transfer within the machine-human interaction of an online store and for its personalization.We analyze the significance,the hierarchical structure and the characteristics of click-stream information and propose that Ricoeur's hermeneutic theory be the foundation of forming such a deep analysis method.Then we use the empirical context information of the click-stream to improve the naive interpretation put forward by Ricoeur.Moreover,we apply the Grounded Theory to extend the deep analysis of Ricoeur's theory of textual interpretation.The improved theory fits well with the needs of interpretation and the analysis of click-stream information.We exemplify and show the feasibility of this analysis method by using data collected(a single case)from a large study of human-computer interaction.展开更多
The accuracy and time scale invariance of value-at-risk (VaR) measurement methods for different stock indices and at different confidence levels are tested. Extreme value theory (EVT) is applied to model the extre...The accuracy and time scale invariance of value-at-risk (VaR) measurement methods for different stock indices and at different confidence levels are tested. Extreme value theory (EVT) is applied to model the extreme tail of standardized residual series of daily/weekly indices losses, and parametric and nonparametric methods are used to estimate parameters of the general Pareto distribution (GPD), and dynamic VaR for indices of three stock markets in China. The accuracy and time scale invariance of risk measurement methods through back-testing approach are also examined. Results show that not all the indices accept time scale invariance; there are some differences in accuracy between different indices at various confidence levels. The most powerful dynamic VaR estimation methods are EVT-GJR-Hill at 97.5% level for weekly loss to Shanghai stock market, and EVT-GARCH-MLE (Hill) at 99.0% level for weekly loss to Taiwan and Hong Kong stock markets, respectively.展开更多
Translation of address terms is a very significant part in the translation of literary works.Yet the agreement on how to do their translation has not been settled.This thesis will make a detailed comparison of the tra...Translation of address terms is a very significant part in the translation of literary works.Yet the agreement on how to do their translation has not been settled.This thesis will make a detailed comparison of the translation of address terms in the extracted examples from Hongloumeng from the perspective of relevance theory(RT).It is believed that address terms are closely context-and culture-bounded,so there is no settled results for the translation of a particular address term.But the there are general rules to direct their translation from the perspective of RT by focusing on the context and the writer’s intention.展开更多
We predicted the extreme values of the ENSO index, the Niño3.4 index, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) using extreme value theory. Various diagnostic plots for assessing the accuracy of the Generalized Pa...We predicted the extreme values of the ENSO index, the Niño3.4 index, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) using extreme value theory. Various diagnostic plots for assessing the accuracy of the Generalized Pareto (GP) model fitted to the Niño3.4 index and SOI are shown, and all four diagnostic plots support the fitted GP model. Because the shape parameter of the Niño3.4 was negative, the Niño3.4 index had a finite upper limit. In contrast, that of the SOI was zero, therefore the SOI did not have a finite upper limit, and there is a possibility that a significant risk will occur. We predicted the maximum return level for the return periods of 10, 20, 50, 100, 350, and 500 years and their respective 95% confidence intervals, CI. The 10-year, and 100-year return levels for Niño3.4 were estimated to be 2.41, and 2.62, with 95% CI [2.22, 2.59], and [2.58, 2.66], respectively. The Niño3.4 index was 2.65 in the 2015/16 super El Niño, which is a phenomenon that occurs once every 500 years. The Niño3.4 index was 2.51 in the 1982/83, and 1997/98 super El Niño, which is a phenomenon that occurs once every 20 years. Recently, a large super El Niño event with a small probability of occurrence has occurred. In response to global warming, the super El Niño events are becoming more likely to occur.展开更多
Based on the analysis of the properties of Γ-conclusion by means of deduction theorems, completeness theorems and the theory of truth degree of formulas, the present papers introduces the concept of the membership de...Based on the analysis of the properties of Γ-conclusion by means of deduction theorems, completeness theorems and the theory of truth degree of formulas, the present papers introduces the concept of the membership degree of formulas A is a consequence of Γ (or Γ-conclusion) in Lukasiewicz n-valued propositional logic systems, Godel n-valued propositional logic system and the R0 n-valued propositional logic systems. The condition and related calculations of formulas A being Γ-conclusion were discussed by extent method. At the same time, some properties of membership degree of formulas A is a Γ-conclusion were given. We provide its algorithm of the membership degree of formulas A is a Γ-conclusion by the constructions of theory root.展开更多
Communication of the various testing methods of COVID-19 is vital for English speakers within China and with the outside world.This research is set to find out the appropriate translation of the Chinese phrases referr...Communication of the various testing methods of COVID-19 is vital for English speakers within China and with the outside world.This research is set to find out the appropriate translation of the Chinese phrases referring to COVID-19 tests in English,in light of functional equivalence theory,which is expected to help correct mistakes and facilitate understanding between people speaking the two languages.展开更多
For a few decades China has undergone an enduring, drastic and complicated transformation. The structure and form of Chinese culture has been profoundly shaped and re-shaped during this process. With careful analysis ...For a few decades China has undergone an enduring, drastic and complicated transformation. The structure and form of Chinese culture has been profoundly shaped and re-shaped during this process. With careful analysis of the history and the actualities, this paper presents a sketch of Chinese culture that highlights three significant traits; an elegant temperament featuring both classicality and novelty, an intrinsic value focusing on nature and freedom, and an encompassing structure marked by harmonious diversity. A new Chinese culture has already revealed her profile against the sunglow at the dawn of the new era. Beautiful and promising as it is, Chinese people believe that she deserves being heartily applauded, warmly welcomed, and boldly embraced.展开更多
We performed a multifractal analysis using wavelet transform to detect the changes in the fractality of the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY exchange rates, and predicted their extreme values using extreme value theory. After the ...We performed a multifractal analysis using wavelet transform to detect the changes in the fractality of the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY exchange rates, and predicted their extreme values using extreme value theory. After the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY became multifractal, then the USD/JPY became monofractal and stable, and yen depreciation was observed. However, the EUR/JPY became multifractal and unstable, and a strong yen depreciation was observed. The coherence between the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY was strong between 1995 and 2000. After the 2007-2008 financial crisis, the USD/JPY became monofractal and stable, and yen appreciation was observed. However, the EUR/JPY became multifractal and unstable, and strong yen appreciation was observed. Various diagnostic plots for assessing the accuracy of the GP model fitted to USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are shown, and all the diagnostic plots support the fitted GP model. The shape parameters of USD/JPY and EUR/JPY were close to zero, therefore the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY did not have finite upper limits. We predicted the maximum return level for the return periods of 10, 20, 50, 100, 350, and 500 years and their respective 95% confidence intervals (CI). As a result, the 10-year and 100-year return levels for USD/JPY were estimated to be 149.6 and 164.8, with 95% CI [143.2, 156.0] and [149.4, 180.1], respectively.展开更多
By using the fixed point theorem under the case structure, we study the existence of sign-changing solutions of A class of second-order differential equations three-point boundary-value problems, and a positive soluti...By using the fixed point theorem under the case structure, we study the existence of sign-changing solutions of A class of second-order differential equations three-point boundary-value problems, and a positive solution and a negative solution are obtained respectively, so as to popularize and improve some results that have been known.展开更多
Confucius attaches great importance to the relationship between benevolence, wisdom and courage. Benevolence is the core of Confucius's moral principle, which reflects the principle of Confucius values; Wisdom is the...Confucius attaches great importance to the relationship between benevolence, wisdom and courage. Benevolence is the core of Confucius's moral principle, which reflects the principle of Confucius values; Wisdom is the recognition of the principle of benevolence and other values; Courage is the inner belief to achieve benevolence. Putnam rejected the dichotomy, of facts and value, he thought value problem also have cognitive meaning. This theory maintenance the relationship between benevolence, wisdom and courage is reasonable. To discuss the relationship between benevolence, wisdom and courage in the context of Putnam's value theory will help us to achieve the benevolence thought modernization.展开更多
基金This study was supported by the Humanities and Social Sciences Project of the Ministry of Education(No.23YJA790070)the Graduate Innovation Research Project of Southwest Minzu University(No.YB2022621)the Research Project of BCIMY(No.BCIMY1910).
文摘Establishing a sense of ritual within tourism consumption scenarios offers tourists the opportunity for interactive engagement.Drawing upon the value co-creation theory,this study constructed an influence mechanism model to examine tourists'active engagement in the process of co-creating tourism experience values.It employed Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling(PLS-SEM)to empirically test the proposed hypotheses.The findings demonstrate that the model constructed in the present study exhibits robust reliability,validity,and explanatory power.The perception of the sense of ritual in tourism exerts a significant positive influence on tourists’co-creation of tourism experience values,thereby significantly enhancing both the communitas and flow experienced by tourists during their travels.Moreover,such communitas and flow can mediate the influence of the sense of ritual in tourism on tourists’co-creation of tourism experience values.This study contributes to advancing the current research on tourists’co-creation of tourism experience values and the sense of ritual in tourism,thereby providing theoretical foundations for cultivating a sense of ritual within tourism consumption scenarios.
文摘The weather in Nagano Prefecture, Japan, can be roughly classified into four types according to principal component analysis and k-means clustering. We predicted the extreme values of the maximum daily and hourly precipitation in Nagano Prefecture using the extreme value theory. For the maximum daily precipitation, the vales of ξ in Matsumoto, Karuizawa, Sugadaira, and Saku were positive;therefore, it has no upper bound and tends to take large values. Therefore, it is dangerous and caution is required. The values of ξ in Nagano, Kisofukushima, and Minamishinano were determined to be zero, therefore, there was no upper limit, the probability of obtaining a large value was low, and caution was required. We predicted the maximum return levels for return periods of 10, 20, 50, and 100 years along with respective 95% confidence intervals in Nagano, Matsumoto, Karuizawa, Sugadaira, Saku, Kisofukushima, and Minamishinano. In Matsumoto, the 100-year return level was 182 mm, with a 95% CI [129, 236]. In Minamishinano, the 100-year return level was 285 mm, with a 95% CI [173, 398]. The 100-year return levels for the maximum daily rainfall were 285, 271, and 271 mm in Minamishinano, Saku, and Karuizawa, respectively, where the changes in the daily maximum rainfall were larger than those at other points. Because these values are large, caution is required during heavy rainfall. The 100-year return levels for the maximum daily and hourly precipitation were similar in Karuizawa and Saku. In Sugadaira, the 100-year return level for a maximum hourly rainfall of 107.2 mm was larger than the maximum daily rainfall. Hence, it is necessary to be careful about short-term rainfall events.
基金funded by“Management Model Innovation of Chinese Enterprises”Research Project,Institute of Industrial Economics,CASS(Grant No.2019-gjs-06)Project under the Graduate Student Scientific and Research Innovation Support Program,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences(Graduate School)(Grant No.2022-KY-118).
文摘This paper explores the data theory of value along the line of reasoning epochal characteristics of data-theoretical innovation-paradigmatic transformation and,through a comparison of hard and soft factors and observation of data peculiar features,it draws the conclusion that data have the epochal characteristics of non-competitiveness and non-exclusivity,decreasing marginal cost and increasing marginal return,non-physical and intangible form,and non-finiteness and non-scarcity.It is the epochal characteristics of data that undermine the traditional theory of value and innovate the“production-exchange”theory,including data value generation,data value realization,data value rights determination and data value pricing.From the perspective of data value generation,the levels of data quality,processing,use and connectivity,data application scenarios and data openness will influence data value.From the perspective of data value realization,data,as independent factors of production,show value creation effect,create a value multiplier effect by empowering other factors of production,and substitute other factors of production to create a zero-price effect.From the perspective of data value rights determination,based on the theory of property,the tragedy of the private outweighs the comedy of the private with respect to data,and based on the theory of sharing economy,the comedy of the commons outweighs the tragedy of the commons with respect to data.From the perspective of data pricing,standardized data products can be priced according to the physical product attributes,and non-standardized data products can be priced according to the virtual product attributes.Based on the epochal characteristics of data and theoretical innovation,the“production-exchange”paradigm has undergone a transformation from“using tangible factors to produce tangible products and exchanging tangible products for tangible products”to“using intangible factors to produce tangible products and exchanging intangible products for tangible products”and ultimately to“using intangible factors to produce intangible products and exchanging intangible products for intangible products”.
文摘Nowadays, commercial competition is becoming fiercer and fiercer, and with the globalization proceeding, when a company tries to expand, promote and develop, it needs to adapt itself to the open business society while not losing its own culture. Since English has been widely used in the world, an effective and suitable English website is essential for a company to use as a kind of advertisement and publicity, where its cultural values are presented.With companies' websites as subjects and Hofstede's cultural dimension theory as the theoretical basis, this study, through text content and data analysis of company profiles,strategies and cultures, tries to find out the tendency of Chinese and American companies on the five cultural value dimensions,which is power distance, uncertainty avoidance, individualism, masculinity and long-term orientation. Accordingly, constructive suggestions are put forward to help appease and avoid misunderstandings, and promote business communication and collaboration.
文摘In the frame work of chiral perturbation theory, a modified effective Lagrangian for meson-baryon system is constructed, where the SU(3) breaking effect for meson is considered. The difference between physical and chiral limlt decay constants is taken into account. Calculated to one 1ooi) at O(p^3), the sigma terms and strangeness contents of baryon octet are obtained.
文摘Extreme value theory provides methods to analyze the most extreme parts of data. We predicted the ultimate 100 m dash records for men and women for specific periods using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. The various diagnostic plots, which assessed the accuracy of the GEV model, were well fitted to the 100 m records in the world and Japan, validating the model. The men’s world record had a shape parameter of -0.250 with a 95% confidence interval of [-0.391, -0.109]. The 100 m record had a finite limit and a calculated upper limit was 9.46 s. The return level estimates for the men’s world record were 9.74, 9.62, and 9.58 s with a 95% confidence interval of [9.69, 9.79], [9.54, 9.69], and [9.48, 9.67] for 10-, 100- and 350-year return periods, respectively. In one year, the probability of occurrence for a new world record of men, 9.58 s (Usain Bolt), was 1/350, while that for women, 10.49 s (Florence Griffith-Joyner), was about 1/100, confirming it was more difficult for men to break records than women.
文摘One of the most important and interesting issues associated with the earthquakes is the long-term trend of the extreme events. Extreme value theory provides methods for analysis of the most extreme parts of data. We estimated the annual maximum magnitude of earthquakes in Japan by extreme value theory using earthquake data between 1900 and 2019. Generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was applied to fit the extreme indices. The distribution was used to estimate the probability of extreme values in specified time periods. The various diagnostic plots for assessing the accuracy of the GEV model fitted to the magnitude of maximum earthquakes data in Japan gave the validity of the GEV model. The extreme value index, <span style="white-space:nowrap;"><span style="white-space:nowrap;"><em>ξ</em></span></span> was evaluated as <span style="white-space:nowrap;"><span style="white-space:nowrap;">−</span></span>0.163, with a 95% confidence interval of [<span style="white-space:nowrap;"><span style="white-space:nowrap;">−</span></span>0.260, <span style="white-space:nowrap;"><span style="white-space:nowrap;">−</span></span>0.0174] by the use of profile likelihood. Hence, the annual maximum magnitude of earthquakes has a finite upper limit. We obtained the maximum return level for the return periods of 10, 20, 50, 100 and 500 years along with their respective 95% confidence interval. Further, to get a more accurate confidence interval, we estimated the profile log-likelihood. The return level estimate was obtained as 7.83, 8.60 and 8.99, with a 95% confidence interval of [7.67, 8.06], [8.32, 9.21] and [8.61, 10.0] for the 10-, 100- and 500-year return periods, respectively. Hence, the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake, which was the largest in the observation history of Japan, had a magnitude of 9.0, and it was a phenomenon that occurs once every 500 year.
文摘The problem of "life and death" has been a confusing proposition of philosophy since long ago,for which philosophers both at home and abroad take great pains to pursue the answer.The problem of"life and death"is also attractive for litterateurs.This paper attempts to scrutinize the works of Franz Kafka and based on comments of different critics,simply analyzing the theory of survival and the theory of death and exploring the aesthetic value.Through analysis,the author of this paper concludes that the theory of survival in the works of Kafka tends to express hating of not being favored by chances and the fright and anxiety of the time;on the contrary,the theory of death in his works tends to express worship and belief.Both life and death are expressed vividly in his works,showing the brave pursuit of senior artistic forms of Kafka and the essence of its aesthetic value.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 79970041).
文摘This paper investigates methods of value-at-risk (VaR) estimation using extreme value theory (EVT). It compares two different estimation methods, 'two-step subsample bootstrap' based on moment estimation and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), according to their theoretical bases and computation procedures. Then, the estimation results are analyzed together with those of normal method and empirical method. The empirical research of foreign exchange data shows that the EVT methods have good characters in estimating VaR under extreme conditions and 'two-step subsample bootstrap' method is preferable to MLE.
基金The project supported in part by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 90103018.
文摘Assuming that the recently θ+ and other exotic resonances belong to the pentaquark i0 of SU(3)I with J^P = 1/2, we constructed a relativistic effective lagrangian in the frame work of baryon chiral perturbation theory. The masses of pentaquarks under isospin symmetry is determined by calculating the propagator to one loop, where the extended on-mass-shell renormalization scheme is applied. Using the experimental data for masses of θ+, Ξ and N, we estimated the mass of Σ and the a terms.
文摘Click-streams of online shopping are the tracks/trails of interactions between a customer and a vendor.We observe that it is of great importance both in theory and practice to explore a deep analysis method for analyzing click-stream information of an individual customer in a specific transaction for understanding the bidirectional value transfer within the machine-human interaction of an online store and for its personalization.We analyze the significance,the hierarchical structure and the characteristics of click-stream information and propose that Ricoeur's hermeneutic theory be the foundation of forming such a deep analysis method.Then we use the empirical context information of the click-stream to improve the naive interpretation put forward by Ricoeur.Moreover,we apply the Grounded Theory to extend the deep analysis of Ricoeur's theory of textual interpretation.The improved theory fits well with the needs of interpretation and the analysis of click-stream information.We exemplify and show the feasibility of this analysis method by using data collected(a single case)from a large study of human-computer interaction.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China (No70501025 & 70572089)
文摘The accuracy and time scale invariance of value-at-risk (VaR) measurement methods for different stock indices and at different confidence levels are tested. Extreme value theory (EVT) is applied to model the extreme tail of standardized residual series of daily/weekly indices losses, and parametric and nonparametric methods are used to estimate parameters of the general Pareto distribution (GPD), and dynamic VaR for indices of three stock markets in China. The accuracy and time scale invariance of risk measurement methods through back-testing approach are also examined. Results show that not all the indices accept time scale invariance; there are some differences in accuracy between different indices at various confidence levels. The most powerful dynamic VaR estimation methods are EVT-GJR-Hill at 97.5% level for weekly loss to Shanghai stock market, and EVT-GARCH-MLE (Hill) at 99.0% level for weekly loss to Taiwan and Hong Kong stock markets, respectively.
文摘Translation of address terms is a very significant part in the translation of literary works.Yet the agreement on how to do their translation has not been settled.This thesis will make a detailed comparison of the translation of address terms in the extracted examples from Hongloumeng from the perspective of relevance theory(RT).It is believed that address terms are closely context-and culture-bounded,so there is no settled results for the translation of a particular address term.But the there are general rules to direct their translation from the perspective of RT by focusing on the context and the writer’s intention.
文摘We predicted the extreme values of the ENSO index, the Niño3.4 index, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) using extreme value theory. Various diagnostic plots for assessing the accuracy of the Generalized Pareto (GP) model fitted to the Niño3.4 index and SOI are shown, and all four diagnostic plots support the fitted GP model. Because the shape parameter of the Niño3.4 was negative, the Niño3.4 index had a finite upper limit. In contrast, that of the SOI was zero, therefore the SOI did not have a finite upper limit, and there is a possibility that a significant risk will occur. We predicted the maximum return level for the return periods of 10, 20, 50, 100, 350, and 500 years and their respective 95% confidence intervals, CI. The 10-year, and 100-year return levels for Niño3.4 were estimated to be 2.41, and 2.62, with 95% CI [2.22, 2.59], and [2.58, 2.66], respectively. The Niño3.4 index was 2.65 in the 2015/16 super El Niño, which is a phenomenon that occurs once every 500 years. The Niño3.4 index was 2.51 in the 1982/83, and 1997/98 super El Niño, which is a phenomenon that occurs once every 20 years. Recently, a large super El Niño event with a small probability of occurrence has occurred. In response to global warming, the super El Niño events are becoming more likely to occur.
文摘Based on the analysis of the properties of Γ-conclusion by means of deduction theorems, completeness theorems and the theory of truth degree of formulas, the present papers introduces the concept of the membership degree of formulas A is a consequence of Γ (or Γ-conclusion) in Lukasiewicz n-valued propositional logic systems, Godel n-valued propositional logic system and the R0 n-valued propositional logic systems. The condition and related calculations of formulas A being Γ-conclusion were discussed by extent method. At the same time, some properties of membership degree of formulas A is a Γ-conclusion were given. We provide its algorithm of the membership degree of formulas A is a Γ-conclusion by the constructions of theory root.
基金2021 Undergraduate Innovation and Entrepreneurship Training Program(No.XJ2021284)。
文摘Communication of the various testing methods of COVID-19 is vital for English speakers within China and with the outside world.This research is set to find out the appropriate translation of the Chinese phrases referring to COVID-19 tests in English,in light of functional equivalence theory,which is expected to help correct mistakes and facilitate understanding between people speaking the two languages.
文摘For a few decades China has undergone an enduring, drastic and complicated transformation. The structure and form of Chinese culture has been profoundly shaped and re-shaped during this process. With careful analysis of the history and the actualities, this paper presents a sketch of Chinese culture that highlights three significant traits; an elegant temperament featuring both classicality and novelty, an intrinsic value focusing on nature and freedom, and an encompassing structure marked by harmonious diversity. A new Chinese culture has already revealed her profile against the sunglow at the dawn of the new era. Beautiful and promising as it is, Chinese people believe that she deserves being heartily applauded, warmly welcomed, and boldly embraced.
文摘We performed a multifractal analysis using wavelet transform to detect the changes in the fractality of the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY exchange rates, and predicted their extreme values using extreme value theory. After the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY became multifractal, then the USD/JPY became monofractal and stable, and yen depreciation was observed. However, the EUR/JPY became multifractal and unstable, and a strong yen depreciation was observed. The coherence between the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY was strong between 1995 and 2000. After the 2007-2008 financial crisis, the USD/JPY became monofractal and stable, and yen appreciation was observed. However, the EUR/JPY became multifractal and unstable, and strong yen appreciation was observed. Various diagnostic plots for assessing the accuracy of the GP model fitted to USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are shown, and all the diagnostic plots support the fitted GP model. The shape parameters of USD/JPY and EUR/JPY were close to zero, therefore the USD/JPY and EUR/JPY did not have finite upper limits. We predicted the maximum return level for the return periods of 10, 20, 50, 100, 350, and 500 years and their respective 95% confidence intervals (CI). As a result, the 10-year and 100-year return levels for USD/JPY were estimated to be 149.6 and 164.8, with 95% CI [143.2, 156.0] and [149.4, 180.1], respectively.
文摘By using the fixed point theorem under the case structure, we study the existence of sign-changing solutions of A class of second-order differential equations three-point boundary-value problems, and a positive solution and a negative solution are obtained respectively, so as to popularize and improve some results that have been known.
文摘Confucius attaches great importance to the relationship between benevolence, wisdom and courage. Benevolence is the core of Confucius's moral principle, which reflects the principle of Confucius values; Wisdom is the recognition of the principle of benevolence and other values; Courage is the inner belief to achieve benevolence. Putnam rejected the dichotomy, of facts and value, he thought value problem also have cognitive meaning. This theory maintenance the relationship between benevolence, wisdom and courage is reasonable. To discuss the relationship between benevolence, wisdom and courage in the context of Putnam's value theory will help us to achieve the benevolence thought modernization.