The Influence of Bond Market Opening in Trade Field on RMB Internationalization Foreign Exchange Rate

In order to verify that the open bond market is the most direct choice to promote the internationalization of RMB,the empirical analysis method is used to analyze the impact of bond liberalization on the internationalization of RMB foreign exchange rate.Firstly,the data source processing method of empirical analysis is introduced.Then the dynamic panel data regression model and panel threshold model are built to verify the influence factors of RMB internationalization foreign exchange rate and the influence of debt market opening on RMB foreign exchange rate,respectively.The results show that the opening of the creditor's rights market has a significant positive promoting effect on the internationalization of RMB foreign exchange rate,and the development of the domestic creditor's rights market has a significant promoting effect on the internationalization of RMB foreign exchange rate.The study has a certain role in promoting the status of China's currency in the international community.

To Accomplish the Unaccomplished Reform： Lessons and Options of RMB Exchange Rate Reform

The exchange rate reform initiated on August 11,2015 is an important attempt by the PBoC to transform China's exchange rate regime from the "crawl-like arrangement" to a floating regime.However,after a three-day experiment,the PBoC abandoned the original goal of the reform.Since then,the central bank has implemented a new exchange rate-setting mechanism.Under this mechanism,the central parity of the renminbi(RMB) against the US dollar is decided by the arithmetic average of the RMB exchange rate that keeps the index of a currency basket unchanged over the past 24 hours and the previous day's closing price of USD/CNY.Due to the introduction of the index of a currency basket,additional uncertainty has been introduced into the determination of the RMB exchange rate,because of the uncertainty of the dollar index(USDX).As a result,to a certain extent,the one-way bet on the RMB expectations is weakened.However,the current exchange rate formation mechanism cannot reverse the trend of devaluation of the RMB,nor can it eliminate depreciation expectations.Meanwhile,it hinders the effectiveness of central bank's independent monetary policy based on the domestic economic fundamentals.And also,the "two-way float" created by the new price-setting mechanism is artificial and has led to significant losses of foreign exchange reserve.The paper explains how the new price-setting mechanism works,and identifies the important features of the mechanism and its pros and cons.The paper argues that despite some advantages,the new exchange rate regime as a soft peg regime is not sustainable and the PBoC should stop foreign exchange market intervention as soon as possible.We hope that the PBoC can learn the lessons from the failure of the "August 11 reform" and accomplish the unaccomplished reform in an urgent manner.

Influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on urban-rural income from the perspective of transmission asymmetry

Based on time series data of RMB exchange rate and urban-rural income, this paper makes an empirical study for the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on urban-rural income by utilizing rolling regression model through direct and indirect transmission mechanisms. According to the results, the transmission effect of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on urban-rural income has features of incompleteness and asymmetry. Moreover, RMB appreciation will help to reduce the urban-rural income gap. Therefore, this paper suggests that the Chinese economy should accelerate the course of transforming mode, adjusting structure and promoting development under the new normal. Meanwhile, reform of RMB exchange rate mechanism should be promoted, living standard of residents must be improved, and the urban-rural income gap should be reduced.

The Appreciation Pressure on RMB Yuan and the Adjustment of RMB Exchange Rate Policy

China has maintained RMB exchange rate nearly unchanged since 1998. However, with the relaxation of capital control, a crawling peg, a more flexible RMB exchange rate regime, is inevitable. Based on improving the current formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate, Chinese government could widen the floating band around the central parity; in the long run, switching the peg from USD alone to a basket of currencies may be a better choice.

Employment and Wage Effects of RMB Exchange Rate for Manufacturing Sectors in China and the US

By creating a labor market dynamic general equilibrium model, this paper derives the pass-through mechanism of exchange rate's employment and wage effects,carries out an empirical study on the employment and wage effects of RMB exchange rate for manufacturing sectors in China and the United States based on ridge regression, and examines the role of industry characteristics in this process. Research findings suggest that: RMB depreciation will drive employment and wage growth for most of China's laborintensive manufacturing sectors, and RMB appreciation will increase employment for certain capital-and technology-intensive sectors; but RMB depreciation has insignificant employment and wage effects for most sectors in the US. Hence, in achieving the longterm stability of RMB exchange rate, China should take advantage of RMB appreciation's manufacturing upgrade effect and ensure the steady growth of manufacturing employment.The US should make breakthroughs in various links of its economic development in order to tackle unemployment, instead of blaming RMB exchange rate. In addition, the nature of business activities and trade union characteristic are both significant factors that lead to differences in inter-sector employment levels of Chinese and US manufacturing sectors.Technology characteristic and other monopolistic characteristics exert decisive effects on the difference of wage return for various sectors in China and the US.

RMB Exchange Rate,Overseas Education,and High-Quality Economic Growth

China is transitioning its industrial structure from labor-and resource-intensive industries that previously contributed significantly to the country’s GDP growth to technology-intensive industries emphasizing a highly-skilled workforce and sustainability to achieve high-quality economic growth.This paper examines the impact of the RMB exchange rate on high-quality economic growth through theoretical modeling and empirical analysis and discusses the variable of overseas education to explore the mechanism of how the RMB exchange rate and overseas education jointly impact high-quality economic growth.The research sample includes the National Bureau of Statistics data on education from 1995 to 2015,the Bank for International Settlements(BIS)data on the RMB exchange rate,and the added value of China’s high-quality economic growth estimated based on the national economy data.An empirical analysis of theoretical expectations was conducted,finding that RMB appreciation could make a positive contribution to China’s high-quality economic growth;RMB exchange rate fluctuations would impact the relative cost of overseas education and overseas returnees could have a positive impact on domestic resource utilization efficiency and domestic capacity to make sci-tech innovations,thereby injecting vitality to high-quality economic growth.This study focuses on both the RMB exchange rate and the population studying abroad,providing additional observation dimensions to existing research.

Impacts of Exchange Rate Volatility and FDI on Technical Efficiency—A Case Study of Vietnamese Agricultural Sector

The objective of this research is to examine impacts of exchange rate volatility and FDI on efficiency of the Vietnamese agricultural sector at the provincial level for the period 1998-2011. Due to the characteristic of high uncertainty in agricultural production, the chance-constrained programming model would be used to estimate efficiency of the agricultural production sector. In order to study impacts of exchange rate volatility and FDI, we employ the two-stage model. In the first stage, we use the chance-constrained programming model to measure technical efficiency and ARIMA model to quantify exchange rate volatility. In the second stage, we use the fixed effect model to evaluate impacts of exchange rate volatility and FDI on efficiency of agricultural production in poor and rich provinces. The estimated results show that fluctuation in exchange rate volatility would reduce efficiency in agricultural production but FDI has an insignificant impact on the efficient production in Vietnam agricultural sector.

Do the RMB exchange rate and global commodity prices have asymmetric or symmetric effects on China’s stock prices?

With the rapid expansion of the RMB exchange rate’s floating range,the effects of the RMB exchange rate and global commodity price changes on China’s stock prices are likely to increase.This study uses both auto regressive distributed lag(ARDL)and nonlinear ARDL(NARDL)approaches to explore the symmetric and asymmetric effects of the RMB exchange rate and global commodity prices on China’s stock prices.Our findings show that without considering the critical variable of global commodity prices,there is no cointegration relationship between the RMB exchange rate and China’s stock prices,and the coefficient of the RMB exchange rate is not statistically significant.However,when we introduce global commodity prices into the NARDL model,the result shows that the RMB exchange rate has a negative effect on China’s stock prices,that there indeed exists a long-run cointegration relationship among the RMB exchange rate,global commodity prices,and stock prices in the NARDL model,and that global commodity price changes have an asymmetric effect on China’s stock prices in the long run.Specifically,China’s stock prices are more sensitive to increases than decreases in global commodity prices.Thus,increases in global commodity prices cause China’s stock prices to decline sharply.In contrast,the same magnitude of decline in global commodity prices induces a smaller increase in China’s stock prices.

A Study of Relationship between RMB Exchange Rate and Import-Export Trade Relations before and after Exchange Reform

Exchange rate, as a link between international markets, integrates the economies of all countries. In today's economic globalization, exchange rate plays an important role. It is one of the most effective ways to regulate the international economy, and also one of the most direct means. In this paper, based on the definition, classification and role of exchange rate, the impacts of RMB exchange rate on China's export trade after the "exchange rate reform" were studied, and the measures that China should take to deal with the impact of the continuous appreciation of RMB on imports and exports under the current environment were proposed. This paper hopes to further expand China's foreign trade.

The Influence of Exchange Rate on the Volume of Japanese Manufacturing Export

This paper investigates the influence of exchange rate volatility on the volume of Japanese manufacturing export. The volatility in yen is shown by conditional variance from EGARCH （Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity） model, allowing for asymmetric effects that a shock of an appreciation of the yen is different from that of a depreciation of the yen. The export action model including exchange rate volatility is constructed based on VAR （Vector Auto Regressive） model to examine the relationship between exchange rate uncertainty and the volume of export. Tests are performed for typical eight kinds of industry in Japan. Few empirical studies focus on each Japanese industry export. Results indicate significant negative effects of exchange rate volatility on most manufacturing exports. In addition, this paper analyzes the each industry, featurc of the influence of exchange rate on the volume of Japanese export. The authors find that equipment industries occupying 60% or more of total Japanese exports especially tend to receive negative influence of exchange.

The Reform on RMB Exchange Rate System

The Chinese currency, the yuan, which was pegged to the value of US dollar in the past, will now be a managed currency. Its value will be set in relation to a basket of currencies. China is taking the first big step toward a free-floating currency. This analysis explores the impacts on Chinese banking, Chinese companies and international monetary market.

Dynamics of volatility spillover between stock market and foreign exchange market: evidence from Asian Countries

Background:The purpose of this study is to examine volatility spillover effects between stock market and foreign exchange market in selected Asian countries;Pakistan,India,Sri Lanka,China,Hong Kong and Japan.This study considered daily data from 4th January,1999 to 1st January,2014.Methods:This study opted EGARCH(Exponential Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity)model for the purpose of analyzing asymmetric volatility spillover effects between stock and foreign exchange market.Results:The EGARCH analyses reveal bidirectional asymmetric volatility spillover between stock market and foreign exchange market of Pakistan,China,Hong Kong and Sri Lanka.The results reveal unidirectional transmission of volatility from stock market to foreign exchange market of India.The analysis reveals no evidence of volatility transmission between the two markets in reference to Japan.Conclusions:The result of this study provide valuable insights to economic policy makers for financial stability perspective and to investors regarding decision making in international portfolio and currency risk strategies.

Using fuzzy neural networks for RMB/USD real exchange rate forecasting

In order to aim at improving the forecasting performance of the RMB/USD exchange rate, this paper proposes a new architecture of fuzzy neural networks based on fuzzy logic, and the method of point differential, which guarantees not only the direction of weight correction, but also the needed precision for the BP algorithm. In applying genetic algorithms for optimal performance, this approach, in the forecasting of the RMB/USD real exchange rate from 1994 to 2000, obviously outperforms typical BP Neural Networks and exhibits a higher capacity in regard to nonlinear, time-variablility, and illegibility of the exchange rate.

Modeling and forecasting exchange rate volatility in Bangladesh using GARCH models:a comparison based on normal and Student's t-error distribution

Background:Modeling exchange rate volatility has remained crucially important because of its diverse implications.This study aimed to address the issue of error distribution assumption in modeling and forecasting exchange rate volatility between the Bangladeshi taka(BDT)and the US dollar($).Methods:Using daily exchange rates for 7 years(January 1,2008,to April 30,2015),this study attempted to model dynamics following generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic(GARCH),asymmetric power ARCH(APARCH),exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedstic(EGARCH),threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedstic(TGARCH),and integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedstic(IGARCH)processes under both normal and Student’s t-distribution assumptions for errors.Results and Conclusions:It was found that,in contrast with the normal distribution,the application of Student’s t-distribution for errors helped the models satisfy the diagnostic tests and show improved forecasting accuracy.With such error distribution for out-of-sample volatility forecasting,AR(2)–GARCH(1,1)is considered the best.

Capital Account Openness,Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Growth:International Experiences and Implications

Based on the Barro classical growth model, this paper introduces capital account openness and exchange rate volatility to conduct an empirical analysis using the panel data of 182 countries(regions) during 1970-2013 to examine the combined effects of capital account openness and exchange rate risks on economic growth. Our findings are as follows:(1) Without considering exchange rate volatility, capital account openness is subject to a threshold effect, i.e. capital account openness significantly promotes the economic growth of middle-and high-income countries but exerts the opposite effect on low-income countries; and(2) after exchange rate volatility is taken into account, the growth effect of capital account openness is reduced and the greater the exchange rate volatility is, the smaller the marginal effect of capital account openness will be; sample-specific results also proved the existence of the threshold effect. This paper offers the following implications:(1) The effect of capital account openness can be better examined based on risk factors;(2) moderately controlling exchange rate volatility is conducive to acquiring greater benefits from capital account openness; and(3) the threshold effect of capital account openness cannot be overlooked.

Exchange Rate Volatility： Effect on Turkish Tourism Incomes

The Turkish economy has been facing account deficit problems in recent years and tourism revenues play an important role in financing this deficit. Tourism revenues are affected by exchange rate volatility and the effects of exchange rate volatility on tourism revenues need to be researched. The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of exchange rate volatility on tourism revenues. These effects were analyzed by using multivariate co-integration model and monthly data from January 2003 to December 2011. Findings suggest that exchange rate volatility has a negative effect on tourism revenues. Additionally, a weak relationship was detected in the long term between exchange rate and tourism revenues.

Analysis on RMB Exchange Rate Policy

Based on this global environment, this essay will first present basic concepts of RMB exchange rate policy and its evolutionhistory, then discuss some important challenges from the global perspective that the Chinese government meets in terms of the increasinglyundervalued exchange rate, thirdly argue that China cannot take a substantial appreciation, Finally discuss whether China should take a gradualappreciation by comparing its advantages and disadvantages.

A Glimpse into a Potential Influencing Factor of China’s Exchange Rate: Social Financing Scale

The indicator of social financing scale(SFS)has become a new intermediate target for China’s socioeconomic regulation since 2011,which has a better tracking performance on important economic indicators such as CPI and is also the new intermediate target of monetary policy used by China’s central bank to replace M2 at present.So,is there an impact of the social financing scale on another important economic indicator,the RMB exchange rate?This paper conducted an OLS regression analysis of the time series data of social financing scale and the nominal effective exchange rate(NEER)of RMB for a total of 61 months from October 2016 to October 2021 and find that SFS has a significant positive impact on the exchange rate of RMB.This result means that the expansion of SFS will lead to the appreciation of RMB.In addition,the paper fills the research gap on the combination of SFS and RMB exchange rate,and suggests that mechanisms such as monetary policy or domestic interest rates may be responsible for this correlation at the theoretical level.

人民币实际有效汇率变动与我国对“一带一路”国家OFDI的实证研究

通过构建包含汇率、出口和OFDI三种因素的一般均衡理论模型,分析汇率变动对出口和OFDI的影响。理论分析表明,本国货币升值将抑制其出口,但是将促进其对外直接投资。同时采用考虑转口贸易因素的贸易权重法构建“一带一路”人民币实际有效汇率,以反映人民币在区域层面的币值变动。在此基础之上,使用时变参数的向量自回归模型实证分析沿线国家的人民币汇率变动对出口和OFDI的影响,并与总体进行对比。实证结果与理论分析相反,文章从人民币真实币值被高估、比较优势和疫情冲击对中国出口的叠加影响三个方面解释了人民币升值对出口的促进作用,同时从汇率预期和汇率波动两个方面解释了人民币升值对OFDI的抑制作用。此外,还对比分析了总体与沿线国家出口与OFDI的相互影响。最后给出文章的结论及建议。