Rolling Decision Model of Thermal Power Retrofit and Generation Expansion Planning Considering Carbon Emissions and Power Balance Risk

With the increasing urgency of the carbon emission reduction task,the generation expansion planning process needs to add carbon emission risk constraints,in addition to considering the level of power adequacy.However,methods for quantifying and assessing carbon emissions and operational risks are lacking.It results in excessive carbon emissions and frequent load-shedding on some days,although meeting annual carbon emission reduction targets.First,in response to the above problems,carbon emission and power balance risk assessment indicators and assessment methods,were proposed to quantify electricity abundance and carbon emission risk level of power planning scenarios,considering power supply regulation and renewable energy fluctuation characteristics.Secondly,building on traditional two-tier models for low-carbon power planning,including investment decisions and operational simulations,considering carbon emissions and power balance risks in lower-tier operational simulations,a two-tier rolling model for thermal power retrofit and generation expansion planning was established.The model includes an investment tier and operation assessment tier and makes year-by-year decisions on the number of thermal power units to be retrofitted and the type and capacity of units to be commissioned.Finally,the rationality and validity of the model were verified through an example analysis,a small-scale power supply system in a certain region is taken as an example.The model can significantly reduce the number of days of carbon emissions risk and ensure that the power balance risk is within the safe limit.

Risk-Balanced Routing Strategy for Service Function Chains of Cyber-Physical Power System Considering Cross-Space Cascading Failure

Cyber-physical power system(CPPS)has significantly improved the operational efficiency of power systems.However,cross-space cascading failures may occur due to the coupling characteristics,which poses a great threat to the safety and reliability of CPPS,and there is an acute need to reduce the probability of these failures.Towards this end,this paper first proposes a cascading failure index to identify and quantify the importance of different information in the same class of communication services.On this basis,a joint improved risk-balanced service function chain routing strategy(SFC-RS)is proposed,which is modeled as a robust optimization problem and solved by column-and-constraint generation(C-CG)algorithm.Compared with the traditional shortest-path routing algorithm,the superiority of SFC-RS is verified in the IEEE 30-bus system.The results demonstrate that SFC-RS effectively mitigates the risk associated with information transmission in the network,enhances information transmission accessibility,and effectively limits communication disruption from becoming the cause of cross-space cascading failures.

Multi-Model Approach for Assessing the Influence of Calibration Criteria on the Water Balance in Ouémé Basin

Hydrological models are very useful tools for evaluating water resources, and the hydroclimatic hazards associated with the water cycle. However, their calibration and validation require the use of performance criteria which choice is not straightforward. This paper aims to evaluate the influence of the performance criteria on water balance components and water extremes using two global rainfall-runoff models (HBV and GR4J) over the Ouémé watershed at the Bonou and Savè outlets. Three (3) Efficacy criteria (Nash, coefficient of determination, and KGE) were considered for calibration and validation. The results show that the Nash criterion provides a good assessment of the simulation of the different parts of the hydrograph. KGE is better for simulating peak flows and water balance elements than other efficiency criteria. This study could serve as a basis for the choice of performance criteria in hydrological modelling.

AN ANALYSIS OF THREE ELEMENTS OF WATER BALANCE IN THE CHANGJIANG RIVER BASIN

The general trend of three elements (precipitation, runoff and evaporation) of the water balance of the Changjiang River Basin is discussed from the regional distribution of the mean annual values of view, i.e. isogram. The distribution of precipitation is non-uniform. The distribution of runoff mainly supplied from precipitation is more uniform than that of precipitation. The distribution of the evaporation from land is much more uniform than that of precipitation and runoff. Time distribution of these three elements shows the characteristics of comparatively distinct yearly variation and few variation between years. The relationship between precipitation and runoff, and between precipitation and evaporation in the humid region in the Changjiang River is analyzed. The slopes of their straight line correlation are nearly equal. The internal relationship between variables should be paid attention to, otherwise, a pseudo correlation may be resulted in. The paper provides the method of quantitative

Analysis of water resource benefits due to power grid interconnections using the virtual water method

The global water demand and supply situation is becoming increasingly severe due to water shortage and uneven distribution of water resources.The highest water demand in the energy sector is attributable to power generation.With cross-country and cross-continental power grid interconnections becoming a reality,electricity trading across countries and the creation of new opportunities for re-allocation of water resources are possible.This study expands the concept of virtual water and proposes a generalized virtual water flow in an interconnected power grid system to accurately estimate water resource benefits of clean power transmission from both the production and the consumption sides.By defining the water scarcity index as a price mechanism indicator,the benefits of water resources allocation through power grid interconnections are evaluated.Taking the Africa-Asia-Europe interconnection scenario as an example,the total water saving would amount to 88.95 million m^3 by 2030 and 337.8 million m^3 by 2050.This result shows that grid interconnections could promote the development of renewable energy and expand the benefits of available water resources.

Discharge water temperature assessment of thermal power plantusing remote sensing techniques

Thermal power plants are generally constructed near to sea coast to meet their requirement of coolingwater. The warm water discharge from the thermal power plant is one of the major environmentalconcerns in view of the thermal pollution in the sea water. The temperature limit for the warm waterdischarge from the thermal power plant has to be monitored and controlled. Coastal Gujarat PowerLimited (CGPL) operates (24×7) at an “once-through system” based sea water circulation for powergeneration. The used sea water is then discharged into the sea through an outlet channel. As per environmental norms, the discharge water temperature needs to be maintained below the stipulated “delta”rise (+7 ℃) with respect to ambient sea surface temperature at the inlet. We demonstrate the applicability of thermal remote sensing data in understanding the seasonal and temporal variations of thetemperature difference between the discharge water and the ambient sea water. We used thermal banddata from Landsat-8 satellite imagery to map water surface temperature and create temperature profilesalong the intake and outflow channels (till the sea), to understand the variation of temperature andestimate the “DT” between intake point and various observation points along the outflow. This analysiswas carried out for all 11 months (except June) of the year 2018 to correlate temperature variations withseasonal changes. Tidal conditions during the time of data acquisition were also considered to accountfor the effect of tides on DT. The result shows that the average temperature rise between intake andoutflow are maintained at ~3 ℃ across all the months of 2018, with minor variations in the months ofJuly and August. Further, average temperature drop from outflow to cooling channel (before diaphragm)is seen to be ~2 ℃ across all the months with similar seasonal fluctuations.

Analysis of Soil and Water Balance on the Land Arrangement Function

The natural supply of land resources is limited, but the economic supply may change along with social and economic development, and its size is decided bye nature and social and economic body conditions. When the supplying ability of land resources threatens the development of society and the conflict between people and land becomes tense, it forced people to im- prove land utilization and to increase the effective supply of land resources. The paper made an overall consideration on the characteristics of the irrigated farming and the frail ecological environment in Fuhai County, Altay Area, Xinjiang Uigur Autonomous Region and explored land arrangement planning as well as water resource planning and environmental protection. The paper evaluated natural resources, land utilization and water resource of the case study areas and focused on the spatio-temporal balance between the utilization of water and land resources. In the end the paper a feasible plan was made out for the land arrangement project.

Long-Term Assessment of Nitrogen Pollution Load Potential for Groundwater by Mass Balance Analysis in the Tedori River Alluvial Fan Area, Japan

To evaluate the nitrogen pollution load in an aquifer, a water and nitrogen balance analysis was conducted over a thirty-five year period at five yearly intervals. First, we established a two-horizon model comprising a channel/soil horizon, and an aquifer horizon, with exchange of water between the aquifer and river. The nitrogen balance was estimated from the product of nitrogen concentration and water flow obtained from the water balance analysis. The aquifer nitrogen balance results were as follows: 1) In the aquifer horizon, the total nitrogen pollution load potential (NPLP) peaked in the period 1981-1990 at 1800 t·yr-1;following this the NPLP rapidly decreased to about 600 t·yr-1 in the period 2006-2010. The largest NPLP input component of 1000 t·yr-1 in the period 1976-1990 was from farmland. Subsequently, farmland NPLP decreased to only 400 t·yr-1 between 2006 and 2010. The second largest input component, 600 t·yr-1, was effluent from wastewater treatment works (WWTWs) in the period 1986-1990;this also decreased markedly to about 100 t·yr-1 between 2006 and 2010;2) The difference between input and output in the aquifer horizon, used as an index of groundwater pollution, peaked in the period 1986-1990 at about 1200 t·yr-1. This gradually decreased to about 200 t·yr-1 by 2006-2010. 3) The temporal change in NPLP coincided with the nitrogen concentration of the rivers in the study area. In addition, nitrogen concentrations in two test wells were 1.0 mg·l-1 at a depth of 150 m and only 0.25 mg·l-1 at 50 m, suggesting gradual percolation of the nitrogen polluted water deeper in the aquifer.

Climate Change, Regional Water Balance and Land Use Policy, in the Watershed of Lake Kinneret (Israel)

Long term data record (1944-2018) of climatological conditions in the Lake Kinneret and its watershed ecosystems was statistically evaluated and the impact of Anthropogenic operations was included as well. Precipitation input source is obviously uncontrolled natural component whilst the other three regional water outflows pathways are under anthropogenic control: Evapo-transpiration (ET), Runoff and underground flows. Indications for climate change expressed as air warming with consequences on regional (watershed and the lake) water resources and consumption capacities policy in the drainage basin and in the Lake are discussed. The decline of air temperature from 1940 to 1970s is probably due to a change in the Albedo effect. After the decline air temperature was twisted towards elevation. Climate change caused a decline in rainfall, followed by a reduction of Jordan and other river discharges and underground flows, accompanied by a decline of WL. With respect to climate change, water allocation for agricultural consumption was shrunk.

Causes of Decreasing Water Balances in the Barada Awaj (Damascus) Drainage Basin until the Uprising in Syria

Despite all of the many discrepancies and contradictions in the estimate of the water balance in the Barada Awaj basin, all the research and reports, both local and international, indicate that the basin suffers from water depletion. The agricultural sector is the largest consumer of water, and the area of land irrigated by the basin has risen significantly. Rapid population growth as a result of natural increase and massive immigration to the basin, piratical well-digging without permits, the failure to increase the area of land irrigated by modern methods and a decrease in rainfall and the drought that has affected Syria in general and the Barada Awaj basin in particular, have led to a water shortage in the basin during the first decade of this century.

Mass balance of saline lakes considering inflow loads of rivers and groundwater: the case of Lake Issyk-Kul, Central Asia

This study aimed to elucidate the influence of inflow water on the salinity concentration process of a saline lake and the mass balance of Lake Issyk-Kul,a tectonic saltwater lake in Kyrgyzstan.Based on the survey results and meteorological data from 2012 to 2015,we analyzed the dissolved chemical composition loads due to water inflow.Then,we discussed the relationship between the increase in salinity and water inflow into the lake.Through the water quality analysis data,we used the tank model to estimate the river inflow and analyze the loads by the L-Q curve.The groundwater loads were then estimated from the average annual increase in salinity of the lake over a period of 30 a.The results suggest that Lake Issyk-Kul was temporarily freshened between about AD 1500 and 1800 when an outflowing river existed,and thereafter,it became a closed lake in AD 1800 and continued to remain a saline lake until present.The chemical components that cause salinization are supplied from the rivers and groundwater in the catchment area,and when they flow into the lake,Ca^(2+),HCO_(3)−and Mg^(2+)precipitate as CaCO_(3) and MgCO_(3).These compounds were confirmed to have been left on the lakeshore as evaporite.The model analysis showed that 1.67 mg/L of Ca^(2+)and Mg^(2+)supplied from rivers and groundwater are precipitated as evaporite and in other forms per year.On the other hand,salinity continues to remain in the lake water at a rate of 27.5 mg/L per year.These are the main causes of increased salinity in Lake Issyk-Kul.Since Na^(+)and Cl^(-)are considered to be derived from geothermal water,they will continue to flow in regardless of the effects of human activities.Therefore,as long as these components are accumulated in Lake Issyk-Kul as a closed lake,the salinity will continue to increase in the future.

Changes of Water Temperature and Harmful Algal Bloom in the Daya Bay in the Northern South China Sea

Economic development around the Daya Bay, China has profoundly affected the marine environment in the bay area in recent years, particularly since the operation of Daya Bay Nuclear Power Station （DNPS） in 1994. This study analyzed the changes of water temperature and harmful algal blooms （HABs） for two periods： 1983-1993 and 1994-2004, using in situ and satellite data. Results showed that yearly mean surface water temperature （SWT） and Chl-a concentration （Chl-a） increased by 1.1 ℃ and 1.9 mg/m^3, respectively, after 1994. The monthly occurrence of HAB was found to have increased also. HABs appeared only in spring and autumn before 1994, but occurred all the year round after 1994. SWT, Chl-a and HABs all increased significantly in May. Those changes were associated with environmental changes in this area, such as thermal discharge from the DNPS and enhancement of eutrophication from human activities around the Daya Bay.

Water Analyses, Eco-Balance and Socio-Demographic Analyses as Prerequisites for Solutions of the Sewage Treatment Problems in Rural Areas

The implementation of the EU-water framework directive (EU-WFD) demands a financeable and adaptable sewage treatment, creating a need for action especially in rural areas, where the “good ecological status” is often not reached even though the sewage works fulfill the legal minimum requirements. Therefore the construction of new, more efficient wastewater treatment plants is advisable. Due to the precarious financial situation in most rural areas, many municipalities can however not master the necessary funds for an improved waste water infrastructure. A large part of the costs would have to be shouldered by the local population in the form of additional sewage levies, leading to massive socio-economic strain. Hence, different solutions, which are tailored to the socio-economic, demographic and environmental characteristics of rural areas and fulfill the legal requirements, need to be developed. One possible approach is presented in the form of the Dirlammen case study (municipality Lautertal, Hesse, Germany). It consists of 1) biological and physicochemical analyses of the waste waters, 2) a modified eco-balance for the construction of a new sewage works and 3) socio-economic and demographic analyses of the population. It serves as a tool for the assessment of the influencing ecological, socio-economic and demographic factors on the sewage problems in rural areas. These findings can easily be transferred to other rural areas with a similar configuration and thus deliver the basis for a generally applicable approach to these problems. The results of the comprehensive analysis have shown for the municipality Dirlammen/Lautertal that the continued operation of the existing pond sewage plant is, with regards to the ecological, socio-economic and demographic points of view, preferable to the construction of a new waste water treatment plant. With regard to the sustainability principles of the sewage treatment and the objectives of the EU-WFD, existing sewage works should be operated for as long as the sewage treatment is feasible within technical and legal boundaries. With the construction of new facilities on the other hand, the expected improvement of the water quality has to be weighed against the ecological impairments caused by the construction itself. Rural waste water plans have to be developed for the long-term, taking not only the ecology into account but also the demographic change. Possible approaches in this regard could be a shift towards a decentralized waste water treatment concept and–even more important–improvements of the river morphology. But also the reduction of the diffuse pollution from agricultural sources should be considered for the development of strategies for the improvement of the ecological state. Short-term optimization measures in the existing sewage works might also improve the water quality until the long-term development plans can be implemented. In particular the challenges of the demographic change and linked with that the changing requirements for the rural waste water treatment must be addressed by any future plans. Only with the help of such a comprehensive approach the dangers of bad planning and unacceptable socio-economic burdens can be minimized.

Investigation of Water Balance and Map Crisis Preparation in the Recent Two Decades of Kalacho Plain,Dehdasht,Iran

Considering the water restrictions,it is important to check the water balance in each area.These restrictions are even more important in arid and semi-arid regions.The purpose of this study was to study the water balance in the Kalacho plain of Kohgiluyeh city.Kalacho plain is about 15 km east of Dehdasht city.In recent years,due to the excessive extraction of lowland wells,the quality of groundwater has also declined steadily.Therefore,hydrogeological assessment and aquifer management seems necessary.Groundwater management requires understanding and functioning of the aquifer under natural conditions(firstly)and then predicting the effects of harvesting or feeding.Undoubtedly,understanding the actual behaviors of a natural system requires some research for each particular area.The average annual temperature and precipitation in the meteorological stations is about 18.1°C and 394 mm,respectively.The water crisis map of this plain has been prepared based on the data of 45 km2 area during the 1991-1992 blue water year.Groundwater Balance Range of the Kalacho Plain is selected based on available statistics and distribution of piezometers,wells and agricultural areas.According to the long-term hydrograph,the plain faces an average loss of 0.15 m and a reservoir deficit of 2.5 million m3.Also during the 20-year period,a total of 24 m of drop and 68 million cubic meters of reservoir deficits were created in the plain.By calculating the effective parameters in the general water balance equation(inputs and outputs),the plain was finally divided into five critical areas.Zones 1,2 and 3 are the most critical lowland areas in the vicinity of the hydraulic connection with the Gachsaran Fm.,and areas 4 and 5 are less critical because of the adjacent Asmari Formation,which feed on this karstic aquifer.Overall,this negative balance indicates an increasing drop in groundwater level and its reservoir deficit.

Water, Air Emissions, and Cost Impacts of Air-Cooled Microturbines for Combined Cooling, Heating, and Power Systems： A Case Study in the Atlanta Region

The increasing pace of urbanization means that cities and global organizations are looking for ways to increase energy efficiency and reduce emissions. Combined cooling, heating, and power （CCHP） systems have the potential to improve the energy generation efficiency of a city or urban region by providing energy for heating, cooling, and electricity simultaneously. The purpose of this study is to estimate the water consumption for energy generation use, carbon dioxide （CO2） and NOx emissions, and economic impact of implementing CCHP systems for five generic building types within the Atlanta metropolitan region, under various operational scenarios following the building thermal （heating and cooling） demands. Operating the CCHP system to follow the hourly thermal demand reduces CO2 emissions for most building types both with and without net metering. The system can be economically beneficial for all building types depending on the price of natural gas, the implementation of net metering, and the cost structure assumed for the CCHP system. The greatest reduction in water consumption for energy production and NOx emissions occurs when there is net metering and when the system is operated to meet the maximum yearly thermal demand, although this scenario also results in an increase in greenhouse gas emissions and, in some cases, cost. CCHP systems are more economical for medium office, large office, and multifamilv residential buildings.

Seasonal Distribution of Manganese in the Soil-Water-Plant in the Zone of Burshtyn Thermal Power Station

This study deals with the impact of Burshtyn thermal power station on the amount of manganese in soil, water and celandine tissue. The research of manganese amount and form in the system： water-plant is of great importance due to active influence of thermal power station on the chemical structure of the polluted area. The changes in the amount and form of manganese in soil, water and plant are interrelated and depend on the season, the distance from the polluter and morph-functional plant structure, the cleaning system possibilities of the industrial enterprise and some meteorological factors.

The Estimation of Water Supply and Demand in Hotan Oasis

[Objective] The purpose of this study is to estimate water supply and demand, which can provide a basis for how to allocate rationally water resources in Hotan Oasis. [Method] The water supply and demand in Hotan Oasis in the next15 years were calculated according to water-soil balance. [Result] When the runoff of Hotan River is at a probability of 50%（P=50 for short）, the total water resource is 50.57×10^8m^3, and there is only 33.13×10^8m^3available for social and economics,but there would be a need of 33.44×10^8and 36.06×10^8m^3, and the water shortage would be 1.31 ×10^8and 2.93 ×10^8m^3in 2020 and 2030 respectively. When P =75,the total water resource is 44.30×10^8m^3, there is only 29.39×10^8m^3water available for social and economics. However, there would be a need of 31.43 ×10^8and33.11×10^8m^3, and the water shortage would be 2.04×10^8and 3.72×10^8m^3in 2020 and 2030, respectively. [Conclusion] The problem of water shortage would be serious over the next 15 years, and the fragile ecosystem would be destroyed dramatically with the large-scale land reclamation against natural laws. Hence, the effective policies and measures should be taken timely to prohibit reclamation and to cope with ongoing water shortage, based on the water supply and demand estimation under the background of climate change.

Changes of Terrestrial Water Storage in the Yellow River Basin Under Global Warming

The increasing temperature in the Yellow River Basin has led to a rapid rise in the melting level height,at a rate of 5.98 m yr^(-1)during the cold season,which further contributes to the transition from snowfall to rainfall patterns.Between 1979 and 2020,there has been a decrease in snowfall in the Yellow River Basin at a rate of-3.03 mm dec^(-1),while rainfall has been increasing at a rate of 1.00 mm dec^(-1).Consequently,the snowfall-to-rainfall ratio(SRR)has decreased.Snowfall directly replenishes terrestrial water storage(TWS)in solid form until it melts,while rainfall is rapidly lost through runoff and evaporation,in addition to infiltrating underground or remaining on the surface.Therefore,the decreasing SRR accelerates the depletion of water resources.According to the surface water balance equation,the reduction in precipitation and runoff,along with an increase in evaporation,results in a decrease in TWS during the cold season within the Yellow River Basin.In addition to climate change,human activities,considering the region's dense population and extensive agricultural land,also accelerate the decline of TWS.Notably,irrigation accounts for the largest proportion of water withdrawals in the Yellow River Basin(71.8%)and primarily occurs during the warm season(especially from June to August).The impact of human activities and climate change on the water cycle requires further in-depth research.

Antecedent Precipitation Index to Estimate Soil Moisture and Correlate as a Triggering Process in the Occurrence of Landslides

Landslides are highly dangerous phenomena that occur in different parts of the world and pose significant threats to human populations. Intense rainfall events are the main triggering process for landslides in urbanized slope regions, especially those considered high-risk areas. Various other factors contribute to the process;thus, it is essential to analyze the causes of such incidents in all possible ways. Soil moisture plays a critical role in the Earth’s surface-atmosphere interaction systems;hence, measurements and their estimations are crucial for understanding all processes involved in the water balance, especially those related to landslides. Soil moisture can be estimated from in-situ measurements using different sensors and techniques, satellite remote sensing, hydrological modeling, and indicators to index moisture conditions. Antecedent soil moisture can significantly impact runoff for the same rainfall event in a watershed. The Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) or “retained rainfall,” along with the antecedent moisture condition from the Natural Resources Conservation Service, is generally applied to estimate runoff in watersheds where data is limited or unavailable. This work aims to explore API in estimating soil moisture and establish thresholds based on landslide occurrences. The estimated soil moisture will be compared and calibrated using measurements obtained through multisensor capacitance probes installed in a high-risk area located in the mountainous region of Campos do Jordão municipality, São Paulo, Brazil. The API used in the calculation has been modified, where the recession coefficient depends on air temperature variability as well as the climatological mean temperature, which can be considered as losses in the water balance due to evapotranspiration. Once the API is calibrated, it will be used to extrapolate to the entire watershed and consequently estimate soil moisture. By utilizing recorded mass movements and comparing them with API and soil moisture, it will be possible to determine thresholds, thus enabling anticipation of landslide occurrences.

Generation of input spectrum for electrolysis stack degradation test applied to wind power PEM hydrogen production

Hydrogen production by proton exchange membrane electrolysis has good fluctuation adaptability,making it suitable for hydrogen production by electrolysis in fluctuating power sources such as wind power.However,current research on the durability of proton exchange membrane electrolyzers is insufficient.Studying the typical operating conditions of wind power electrolysis for hydrogen production can provide boundary conditions for performance and degradation tests of electrolysis stacks.In this study,the operating condition spectrum of an electrolysis stack degradation test cycle was proposed.Based on the rate of change of the wind farm output power and the time-averaged peak-valley difference,a fluctuation output power sample set was formed.The characteristic quantities that played an important role in the degradation of the electrolysis stack were selected.Dimensionality reduction of the operating data was performed using principal component analysis.Clustering analysis of the data segments was completed using an improved Gaussian mixture clustering algorithm.Taking the annual output power data of wind farms in Northwest China with a sampling rate of 1 min as an example,the cyclic operating condition spectrum of the proton-exchange membrane electrolysis stack degradation test was constructed.After preliminary simulation analysis,the typical operating condition proposed in this paper effectively reflects the impact of the original curve on the performance degradation of the electrolysis stack.This study provides a method for evaluating the degradation characteristics and system efficiency of an electrolysis stack due to fluctuations in renewable energy.