A THREE-DIMENSIONAL THERMOCLINE MODEL FOR THE YELLOW SEA AND NORTHERN EAST CHINA SEA

A time-dependent, three-dimensional finite difference model is presented for simulating the stratifiedYellow Sea and northem East China Sea. The mode is forced by time-dependent observed wind, surfaceflux of heat, and tidal turbulence. With this model, momentum and temperature distribution can be computed,and an approximation for the sub-grid scale effects is introduced by the use of mass and momentumexchange coefficients. The vertical exchanges are quite dependent on these assumed coefficents, whichare complicated functions of the turbulence energy of tide and wind, of the stratified strength and otherfactors. This model was applied to describe the mechanics of the variations in strength and thickness ofthe thermocline covering almost the whole Yellow Sea and northern East Chna Sea in summer. Comparisonsof the computed output with obtained survey data led to some important conclusions.

Vertical development of a Prorocentrum donghaiense bloom in the coastal waters of the East China Sea: coupled biophysical numerical modeling

Algal blooms caused by Prorocentrum donghaiense occurred frequently in the East China Sea （ECS） during spring in recent years. In this study, a coupled biophysical model was used to hindcast a massive P. donghaiense bloom that occurred in 2005 and to determine the factors influencing bloom initiation and development. The model comprised the Regional Ocean Modeling System tailored for the ECS that utilized a multi-nested configuration and a population dynamics model for 19. donghaiense. Comparisons between simulations and observations revealed that the biological model is capable of reproducing the characteristics of 19. donghaiense growth under different irradiances and phosphorus limitation scenarios. The variation of intracellular phosphorus and the effects of 19. donghaiense on ambient nutrients conditions were also reproduced. The biophysical model hindcasted the hydrodynamics and spatiotemporal distributions of the P. donghaiense bloom reasonably well. Bloom development was consistent with observations reported in earlier studies. The results demonstrate the capability of the model in capturing subsurface incubation during bloom initiation. Then model＇s hindcast solutions were further used to diagnose the factors controlling the vertical distribution. Phosphate appeared to be one of the factors controlling the subsurface incubation, whereas surface wind fields played an important role in determining P. donghaiense distribution. The results highlight the importance of nutrient-limitation as a mechanism in the formation of P. donghaiense subsurface layers and the dispersing of P. donghaiense blooms. This coupled biophysical model should be improved and used to investigate 19. donghaiense blooms occurring in different scenarios.

Diagnostic study of the summer thermocline depth in the Huanghai Sea and the East China Sea

In this paper, the depth of the summer thermocline of the South Huanghai Sea and the East China Sea is calculated with two kinds of one-dimentional models, and the formation reasons are explained for the summer thermocline depth distribution characteristics in the study area. It is proved that in the shelf area of the East China Sea, tidal mixing has an important impact on the thermocline depth. And a new explanation for certain phenomena of the so-called coastal upwelling in the East China Sea is proposed.

Study on short-range numerical forecasting of ocean current in the East China Sea——Ⅰ Basic problems of ocean current forecasting and structure of the models

Ocean current forecasting is still in explorative stage of study. In the study, we face some problems that have not been met before. The solving of these problems has become fundamental premise for realizing the ocean current forecasting. In the present paper are discussed in depth the physical essence for such basic problems as the predictability of ocean current, the predictable currents, the dynamical basis for studying respectively the tidal current and circulation, the necessity of boundary model, the models on regions with different scales and their link. The foundations and plans to solve the problems are demonstrated. Finally a set of operational numerical forecasting system for ocean current is proposed.

Numerical modelling of the tide - induced residual current in the East China Sea

-A two-dimensional.nonlinear numerical model is used to study the residual current generated by tides in the East China Sea (ECS)and the South Huanghai Sea (SHS). At first, the principal semidiurnal lunar tide (M2)and the tidal current are derived in these areas. The results obtained with the model are strongly supported by the observational results available. Then, the tide-induced residual flow is determined by using the currents generated by the tidal input. The main features of the residual current in ECS and SHS are presented by analyzing the calculated results. Some of the problems are discussed such as the cause of generating residual current and the contribution of the residual current to the observed current.

Succession of causative species during spring blooms in the EastChina Sea： coupled biophysical numerical modeling

In the East China Sea(ECS), the succession of causative species responsible for blooms is a recurrent phenomenon during the spring, which changes from diatoms to dinoflagellates. Observations from space and in situ cruises captured this pattern of succession during spring of 2005. In this study, we coupled two biological models, which were developed previously for Skeletonema costatum and Prorocentrum donghaiense,into a circulation model tailored for the ECS. The coupled biophysical model was used to hindcast the blooms and to test the hypothesis proposed in earlier studies that phosphate(PO4 3–) is the first-order decider of the succession. The coupled model successfully reproduced the hydrodynamics(as described in a companion paper by Sun et al.(1), the spatiotemporal distribution of the chlorophyll a(Chl a) concentration, and the species succession reasonably well. By analyzing the effects of different factors on the surface Chl a distribution, we confirmed that the offshore boundaries of the blooms were confined by PO4 3–. In addition, we suggest that surface wind fields may modulate the horizontal distribution of blooms. Thus, during the dispersal of blooms, surface winds coupled with PO4 3– may control the succession of blooms in the ECS. The proposed coupled model provides a benchmark to facilitate future improvements by including more size classes for organisms, multiple nutrient schemes, and additional processes.

Numerical Simulation of the Influence of Mean Sea Level Rise on Typhoon Storm Surge in the East China Sea

In this paper, ECOMSED （Estuarine Coastal Ocean Model with sediment transport） model is employed to simulate storm surge process caused by typhoon passing across East China Sea in nearly years. Capability of ECOMSED to simulate storm surge is validated by comparing model result with observed data. Sensitivity experiments are designed to study the influence of sea level rise on typhoon storm surge. Numerical experiment shows that influence of mean sea level rise on typhoon storm surge is non-uniform spatially and changes as typhoon process differs. Maybe fixed boundary method would weaken the influence of mean sea level rise on storm surge, and free boundary method is suggested for the succeeding study.

A New model to forecast fishing ground of Scomber japonicus in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea

The pelagic species is closely related to the marine environmental factors, and establishment of forecasting model of fishing ground with high accuracy is an important content for pelagic fishery. The chub mackerel（Scomber japonicus） in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea is an important fishing target for Chinese lighting purse seine fishery. Based on the fishery data from China＇s mainland large-type lighting purse seine fishery for chub mackerel during the period of 2003 to 2010 and the environmental data including sea surface temperature（SST）, gradient of the sea surface temperature（GSST）, sea surface height（SSH） and geostrophic velocity（GV）, we attempt to establish one new forecasting model of fishing ground based on boosted regression trees. In this study, the fishing areas with fishing effort is considered as one fishing ground, and the areas with no fishing ground are randomly selected from a background field, in which the fishing areas have no records in the logbooks. The performance of the forecasting model of fishing ground is evaluated with the testing data from the actual fishing data in 2011. The results show that the forecasting model of fishing ground has a high prediction performance, and the area under receiver operating curve（AUC） attains 0.897. The predicted fishing grounds are coincided with the actual fishing locations in 2011, and the movement route is also the same as the shift of fishing vessels, which indicates that this forecasting model based on the boosted regression trees can be used to effectively forecast the fishing ground of chub mackerel in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea.

A three-dimentional model of the northeast East China Sea, with application to the M2 current field

A simple three-dimensional tidal model is used to examine the M2 tidal current distribution in a northeastern part of the East China Sea, especially the vertical variation of the current in the region. Computed M2 current is compared with observations available and found to be in good agreement.Main features of the calculating method in this study are: (1) Vertical variation of the tidal current is taken as a funetion of the depth-mean velocity: (2) the method is applicable to a variety of the vertical eddy viscosities; (3) it has a fine vertical resolution, especially near the sea bootom. So, this method not only enables us to get a steady state solution easily but also depicts effects of the friction on the vertical variation of the current much better.

Numerical modelling of the depth variation and the fluctuation of the thermocline under the effects of wind in the Bohai Sea

-In this paper, numerical modelling of the fluctuation of the thermocline in the Bohai Sea has been made using a two-dimensional nonlinear model in stratified ocean and the model for the depth of the thermocline under the effects of wind stirring. The computed results depict the variations of the fluctuation of the thermocline driven by different kinds of wind fields. The fluctuation of the thermocline in the Bohai Sea varies somewhat with different directions, paths and locations of typhoon (cyclone). Under the effects of strong wind, the thermoclines both sink due to mixing and fluctuate. Furthermore, the fluctuation of the thermocline speeds up mixing. At last, the thermoclines disappear after 12-15 h when the strong wind increases from Force 6 to Force 9.

SIMPLE ECOSYSTEM MODEL OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE EAST CHINA SEA IN SPRING

This paper’s simple ecological model to simulate the ecosystem variation and the vertical carbon flux in the central part of the East China Sea in spring, inter-reated the phytoplankton, zooplankton,autotrophic and heterotrophic bacterioplankton, nitrate, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in a run lasting 90 days. Except for DOC, because of poor observation precision,the major seasonal features of the vertical distribution for these components can be simulated by this model. The results show that spring bloom is just a short period of 1-2 weeks and that deposit carbon flux at the bottom interface is about 200 mg /m2 ·d in the first 20 days and then reaches its maximum of 1500mg/m2·d about 2 months later after the spring bloom.

Numerical Study of Water and Suspended Matter Exchange Between the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea

POM was used to study the monthly mean circulation in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea. The calculated results showed almost all major characteristics of the circulation system. The calculated circulation system and observational data were used to determine the sediment concentration, volume transport, heat flux and suspended matter flux between the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea. The conclusions obtained were that the volume and heat are transported northward through the 32°N section during each season; that in winter and autumn, total suspended matter is transported southward, and is larger in winter than in autumn. The reason is that the Yellow Sea Coastal Current is strong and always contains more suspend matter in winter and autumn. The seasonal suspended matter exchange between the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea are 0.58×10 7 tons in spring, 2.81×10 7 tons in summer, -2.60×10 7 tons in autumn and -3.40×10 7 tons in winter. Net flux of suspended matter from the Yellow Sea to the East China Sea is 2.61×10 7 tons every year.

A spectral mixture model analysis of the Kuroshio variability and the water exchange between the Kuroshio and the East China Sea

For understanding more about the water exchange between the Kuroshio and the East China Sea,We studied the variability of the Kuroshio in the East China Sea(ECS) in the period of 1991 to 2008 using a three-dimensional circulation model,and calculated Kuroshio onshore volume transport in the ECS at the minimum of 0.48 Sv(1 Sv ;106 m3/s) in summer and the maximum of 1.69 Sv in winter.Based on the data of WOA05 and NCEP,The modeled result indicates that the Kuroshio transport east of Taiwan Island decreased since 2000.Lateral movements tended to be stronger at two ends of the Kuroshio in the ECS than that of the middle segment.In addition,we applied a spectral mixture model(SMM) to determine the exchange zone between the Kuroshio and the shelf water of the ECS.The result reveals a significantly negative correlation(coefficient of-0.78) between the area of exchange zone and the Kuroshio onshore transport at 200 m isobath in the ECS.This conclusion brings a new view for the water exchange between the Kuroshio and the East China Sea.Additional to annual and semi-annual signals,intra-seasonal signal of probably the Pacific origin may trigger the events of Kuroshio intrusion and exchange in the ECS.

Optimal salinity for dominant copepods in the East China Sea, determined using a yield density model

From 1997 to 2000, four field surveys were conducted in the East China Sea （ECS） （23°30＇-33°00＇N, 118°30＇-128°00＇E）. A field data yield density model was used to determine the optimal salinities for 19 dominant copepod species to establish the relationship between surface salinities and abundance of those species. In addition, ecological groups of the copepods were classified based on optimal salinity and geographical distribution. The results indicate that the yield density model is suitable for determining the relationship between salinity and abundance. Cosmocalanus darwini, Euchaeta rimana, Pleuromamma gracilis, Rhincalanus cornutus, Scolecithrix danae and Pareucalanus attenuatus were determined as oceanic species, with optimal salinities of 〉34.0. They were stenohaline and mainly distributed in waters influenced by the Kuroshio or Taiwan warm current. Temora discaudata, T. stylifera and Canthocalanus pauper were nearshore species with optimal salinities of 〈33.0 and most abundant in coastal waters. The remaining 10 species, including Undinula vulgaris and Subeucalanus suberassus, were offshore species, with optimal salinity ranging from 33.0-34.0. They were widely distributed in nearshore, offshore and oceanic waters but mainly in the mixed water of the ECS.

The numerical simulation of the Kuroshio frontal eddies in the East China Sea using a hybrid coordinate ocean mode

A hybrid coordinate ocean model （ltYCOM） is used to simulate the Kuroshio frontal eddies in the East China Sea （ECS）. The research area is located （20°-32°N, 120°-132°E）. Using tile simulating data, it is figured out that the Kuroshio frontal eddies occur in summer as well as in the other season in this area. The life cycle of the Kuroshio and its frontal eddies is different with the position. The life-cycle of the Kuroshio frontal eddies of the northwest Diaoyu Islands is about 14 d; and the life cycle of the Kuroshio frontal eddies of southwest Yakushima about 20 d. This result extends the in situ researching results greatly. In addition, the vertical impact depth of the Kuroshio frontal eddies is also changing with the position. On the whole, in the ECS, the maximum impact depth of the Kuroshio frontal eddies of the northwest Taiwan Islands is about 75 m; the maximum impact depth of the Kuroshio frontal eddies of the northwest Diaoyu Islands is more than 125 m, but no more than 200 m; and the maximum impact depth of the Kuroshio frontal eddies of southwest Yakushima is up to 100 m.

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS ON THE WIND-DRIVEN CIRCULATION IN THE BOHAI, HUANGHAI AND EAST CHINA SEAS IN WINTER

A new semi implicit numerical model developed to investigate the wind driven circulation (with inflow and outflow) in the Bohai, Huanghai and East China Sea in winter showed that the open boundary conditions and wind forcing are important in controlling general circulation in wintertime; that open boundary conditions (such as Kuroshio, Changjiang River runoff) are primary factors controlling the East China Sea circulation; and that wind driven current is more important in the upper layer in shallow sea area (such as Bohai Sea, North Huanghai Sea, as well as coastal area) in winter. Two numerical experiments are discussed to demonstrate the circulation responding to the changes of the open boundary conditions.

Numerical Study of the Three Gorges Dam Influences on Chlorophyll-a in the Changjiang Estuary and the Adjacent East China Sea

The impoundment of the Three Gorges Dam(TGD)has altered downstream hydrological characteristics and sediment discharge,and it has caused ecological impacts,such as changes in chlorophyll-a(Chl-a)in estuaries and coastal oceans.To investigate the TGD's influence on Chl-a's interannual and seasonal variations in the Changjiang Estuary and the adjacent coastal East China Sea,a physical-biogeochemical model was developed with numerical experiments covering a decade,including TGD's preperiod(pre-TGD,1999–2003)and post-period(post-TGD,2004–2008).The modeling results demonstrate an annual increase in the regional average Chl-a from pre-to post-TGD,with the largest increase reaching up to 20.8%in spring in the nearshore region beyond the Changjiang mouth.The spatial variations in Chl-a are high,with the largest variation being observed around the 20–40 m isobaths.The increase in Chl-a is influenced by improved light and nutrient conditions,which is attributed to dam construction and fertilization by human activities.A decline in nitrogen-phosphorus fertilizer usage ratio along the Changjiang River watershed after the TGD's impoundment is another factor that influences the Chl-a's variation.The modeling results also show severe NO3 and PO4 imbalances with a larger N/P ratio during the post-TGD period,especially in regions with large Chl-a increases.Moreover,the greater increase in the usage of phosphorus fertilizer than nitrogen fertilizer influences Chl-a's variation and has potential promotion effects on the outbreak of harmful algal bloom events.

Numerical Simulation of Wintertime Mesoscale Eddies in the East China Sea

A POM based three dimension baroclinic prognostic model in σ coordinate was established to simulate the eddies in the East China Seas wintertime circulation, considering the topography, inflow and outflow on the open boundary, Changjiang runoff, heat, flux, and wind stress on the sea surface. The model results showed that three branches separate from the Kuroshio flow toward the interior of the Yellow Sea, and form three eddies respectively. The middle eddy is centered at 124°37′E,37°00′N,the southern eddy is centered at 124°00′E,35°30′N. The large cyclonic eddy centered at 125°06′E,30°30′N and located southwest of Cheju Island is a closed structure formed by the northeastward flowing Taiwan Warm Current, northwestward flowing Yellow Sea Warm Current and southward flowing coastal current. The Kuroshio intrusion engenders an eddy west of Kyushu Island of Japan. The branching of the Kuroshio is the direct dynamic cause of the formation of this large eddy. Moreover, both the topographic influence and the northward wind prevailing in winter affect the eddy’s formation obviously.

Application of a catch-based method for stock assessment of three important fisheries in the East China Sea

Most fisheries in China do not have maximum sustainable yield（MSY） estimates due to limited and poor data.Therefore, finding a common method to estimate MSY or total allowable catch（TAC） for fishery management is necessary. MSYs of three important fisheries in the East China Sea were evaluated through a catch-based model.Estimates for intrinsic rate of increase（r） and five levels of process error were considered. Results showed hairtail Trichiurus japonicas（Temminck and Schlegel） and small yellow croaker Larimichthys polyactis（Bleeker） fisheries experienced overfishing from the mid-1990 s to the early 2000 s, and the suggested TACs were 55.8×10^4 t and9.06×10^4 t, respectively. Decades of overfishing in wintering and spawning grounds of large yellow croaker Larimichthys crocea（Richardson） caused the fishery＇s collapse in the 1980 s, and it has not recovered until today.The Catch–MSY model generated similar estimated MSYs with other methods and may be a useful choice for the assessment of regional stocks in China.

Simulation of the extreme waves generated by typhoon Bolaven (1215) in the East China Sea and Yellow Sea

Record-breaking high waves occurred during the passage of the typhoon Bolaven（1215）（TYB） in the East China Sea（ECS） and Yellow Sea（YS） although its intensity did not reach the level of a super typhoon.Winds and directional wave measurements were made using a range of in-situ instruments mounted on an ocean tower and buoys.In order to understand how such high waves with long duration occurred,analyses have been made through measurement and numerical simulations.TYB winds were generated using the TC96 typhoon wind model with the best track data calibrated with the measurements.And then the wind fields were blended with the reanalyzed synoptic-scale wind fields for a wave model.Wave fields were simulated using WAM4.5 with adjustment of C_d for gust of winds and bottom friction for the study area.Thus the accuracy of simulations is considerably enhanced,and the computed results are also in better agreement with measured data than before.It is found that the extremely high waves evolved as a result of the superposition of distant large swells and high wind seas generated by strong winds from the front/right quadrant of the typhoon track.As the typhoon moved at a speed a little slower than the dominant wave group velocity in a consistent direction for two days,the wave growth was significantly enhanced by strong wind input in an extended fetch and non-linear interaction.