Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclones and Storms over the Southwestern Indian Ocean Region Using the Generalized Linear Models

Tropical cyclones (TCs) and storms (TSs) are among the devastating events in the world and southwestern Indian Ocean (SWIO) in particular. The seasonal forecasting TCs and TSs for December to March (DJFM) and November to May (NM) over SWIO were conducted. Dynamic parameters including vertical wind shear, mean zonal steering wind and vorticity at 850 mb were derived from NOAA (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis 1 wind fields. Thermodynamic parameters including monthly and daily mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and equatorial Standard Oscillation Index (SOI) were used. Three types of Poison regression models (i.e. dynamic, thermodynamic and combined models) were developed and validated using the Leave One Out Cross Validation (LOOCV). Moreover, 2 × 2 square matrix contingency tables for model verification were used. The results revealed that, the observed and cross validated DJFM and NM TCs and TSs strongly correlated with each other (p ≤ 0.02) for all model types, with correlations (r) ranging from 0.62 - 0.86 for TCs and 0.52 - 0.87 for TSs, indicating great association between these variables. Assessment of the model skill for all model types of DJFM and NM TCs and TSs frequency revealed high skill scores ranging from 38% - 70% for TCs and 26% - 72% for TSs frequency, respectively. Moreover, results indicated that the dynamic and combined models had higher skill scores than the thermodynamic models. The DJFM and NM selected predictors explained the TCs and TSs variability by the range of 0.45 - 0.65 and 0.37 - 0.66, respectively. However, verification analysis revealed that all models were adequate for predicting the seasonal TCs and TSs, with high bias values ranging from 0.85 - 0.94. Conclusively, the study calls for more studies in TCs and TSs frequency and strengths for enhancing the performance of the March to May (MAM) and December to October (OND) seasonal rainfalls in the East African (EA) and Tanzania in particular.

FLOCKING OF A THERMODYNAMIC CUCKER-SMALE MODEL WITH LOCAL VELOCITY INTERACTIONS

In this paper, we study the flocking behavior of a thermodynamic Cucker–Smale model with local velocity interactions. Using the spectral gap of a connected stochastic matrix, together with an elaborate estimate on perturbations of a linearized system, we provide a sufficient framework in terms of initial data and model parameters to guarantee flocking. Moreover, it is shown that the system achieves a consensus at an exponential rate.

The extraction of aromatics using N-methylpyrrolidone: Liquid-liquidequilibrium determination and mechanism exploration

LLE data of cyclooctane/3-methylpentane + benzene/toluene + N-methylpyrrolidone (NMP) at 298.15 Kand 313.15 K under a pressure of 101.3 kPa were measured in this work. The Othmer-Tobias and Handequations were adopted to validate the reliability of LLE data, where the correlation coefficients (R2) wereclose to unity, indicating the high reliability of the experimental data. The experimental data were analyzed using the distribution coefficient (D) and separation factor (S), and the effect of NMP extracting benzene and toluene from aromatics was explored. Meanwhile, the reason for the different extractionefficiencies of benzene and toluene using NMP was analyzed by quantum chemical calculations. TheNRTL and UNIQUAC thermodynamic models were used to correlate the liquid–liquid equilibrium data,and the relevant binary interaction parameters were obtained. The calculated root mean square deviation(RMSD) were all less than 0.0063, indicating that the obtained binary interaction parameters can be usedto simulate and calculate the extraction of aromatics using NMP.

Simulation of Solvent Extraction for Naphthenic Lubricating Base Oils

Solvent extraction is the process of separating aromatics from vacuum distillates for the production oflubricating base oils. In this study, the authors use dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) instead of furfural as solvent, in light of itshigher selectivity, to obtain extracts with a high aromatic content for naphthenic lubricating base oils. We systematicallyinvestigated effects of the solvent-to-oil (S/O) ratio and extraction temperature on the yield of the extract, efficiency ofaromatic removal, and composition of the extracts and raffinates. The results showed that the aromatic content of extractsfor naphthenic oils could reach a high value of about 80%. The solvent maintained a high selectivity for aromatics fornaphthenic oils even under a high S/O ratio and a high extraction temperature. Moreover, the efficiency of aromatic removalfor naphthenic lubricating base oils could be enhanced by increasing either the S/O ratio or the extraction temperature,although these measures had limited effects in practice. Following this, we used the non-random two-liquid (NRTL) modelbased on the pseudo-component approach to simulate the liquid-liquid equilibrium of the system of DMSO + naphtheniclubricating base oils, and determined the parameters of binary interaction through regression based on the data on phaseequilibrium. The modeling results showed that the predicted yield, content of the solvent, and composition of the raffinatesand extracts were in good agreement with those obtained in the experiments. This validates the reliability of the model usedto represent the DMSO + naphthenic lubricating base oil system. Both the experimental data and the method of simulationreported here can help optimize the extraction of naphthenic lubricating base oils, and provide a better understanding of thecorresponding process.

Thermodynamic modeling and phase diagram prediction of salt lake brine systems.Ⅰ. Aqueous Mg^2+–Ca^2+–Cl^- binary and ternary systems

Salt lake brine is a complex salt-water system under natural environment.Although many models can express the thermodynamic properties and phase equilibrium of electrolyte aqueous solution,the multi-temperature characteristics and predictability are still the goals of model development.In this study,a comprehensive thermodynamic model system is re-established based on the eNRTL model and some improvements:(1) new expression of long-range electrostatic term with symmetrical reference state is proposed to handle the electrolyte solution covering entire concentration range;(2) the temperature dependence of the binary interaction parameters is formulated with a Gibbs Helmholtz expression containing three temperature coefficients,the liquid parameters,which associated with Gibbs energy,enthalpy,and heat capacity contribution;and(3) liquid parameters and solid species data are regressed from properties and solubility data at full temperature range.Together the activity coefficient model,property models and parameters of liquid and solid offer a comprehensive thermodynamic model system for the typical bittern of MgCl2-CaCl2-H2 O binary and ternary systems,and it shows excellent agreement with the literature data for the ternary and binary systems.The successful prediction of complete phase diagram of ternary system shows that the model has the ability to deal with high concentration and high non-idealitv system,and the ability to extrapolate the temperature.

A general thermodynamic model for the long-period stacking ordered phases in magnesium alloys

A thermodynamic model Mg x(Xs,Mg)6(Xl,Mg)8(Xs and Xl are elements smaller and larger than Mg)for long-period stacking ordered phases(LPSOs)was proposed based on two key factors:the Xs 6 Xl 8-type L12 clusters and the variation of chemical compositions.In general,all available LPSOs can be described with this model.As a representative system,Mg-Y-Zn with three LPSOs was investigated using the CALPHAD(calculation of phase diagram)approach aided with first-principles calculations.Two new three-phase equilibria were predicted and were validated by key experiments.The model-based descriptions will be the basis for the research and development of magnesium alloys.

Thermal Analysis of Vehicular Twin-Tube Hydraulic Gas-Precharged Shock Absorbers

In this study of temperature rising in vehicular twin-tube hydraulic gas-precharged shock absorbers,thermodynamic analyses were conducted via simulations.Equations on heat conduction,heat convection as well as radiation were derived by applying certain laws governing heat transfer;an equivalent thermal resistance network model of a shock absorber undergoing heat transfer was established innovatively;moreover,the shock absorber’s thermodynamic model of control volume system was built by using the first law of thermodynamics;and finally,time required for shock absorber to reach thermal equilibrium and corresponding value of steady temperature were calculated by programming.In this way,a lower thermal equilibrium temperature will be achieved,hence help to improve reliability of shock absorbers in work by offering low ambient temperature,by reducing amplitudes and frequencies of external incentives exerted on them and by increasing flow rate of ambient air passing around them.

Thermodynamic modeling and phase diagram prediction of salt lake brine systemsⅡ.Aqueous Li^(+)-Na^(+)-K^(+)-SO_(4)^(2-) and its subsystems

It is still a challenging task to accurately and temperature-continuously express the thermodynamic properties and phase equilibrium behaviors of the salt-lake brine with multi-component,multitemperature and high concentration.The essential subsystem of sulfate type brine,aqueous Li^(+)-Na^(+)-K^(+)-SO_(4)^(2-) and its subsystems across a temperature range from 250 K to 643 K are investigated with the improved comprehensive thermodynamic model.Liquid parameters(Δg_(IJ),Δh_(IJ),and ΔC_(p,IJ))associated with the contributions of Gibbs energy,enthalpy,and heat capacity to the binary interaction parameters,i.e.the temperature coefficients of eNRTL parameters formulated with a Gibbs Helmholtz expression,are determined via multi-objective optimization method.The solid constantsΔ_(f)G_(k)°^((298.15))andΔ_(f)H_(k)°^((298.15))of11 solid species occurred in the quaternary system are rebuilt from multi-temperature solubilities.The modeling results show the accurate representation of(1)solution properties and binary phase diagram at temperature ranges from eutectic points to 643 K;(2)isothermal phase diagrams for Li_(2)SO_(4)-Na_(2)SO_(4)-H_(2)O,Li_(2)SO_(4)-K_(2)SO_(4)-H_(2)O and Na_(2)SO_(4)-K_(2)SO_(4)-H_(2)O ternary systems.The predicted results of complete structure and polythermal phase diagram of ternary systems and the isothermal phase diagrams of quaternary system excellently match with the experimental data.

Crucial control on magmatic-hydrothermal Sn deposit in the Tengchong block,SW China:Evidence from magma differentiation and zircon geochemistry

Magmatic-hydrothermal Sn deposits are commonly associated with high silica magmas,but why most global high silica granites do not bear economic Sn ore grades remains unclear.Two crucial factors controlling magmatic-hydrothermal Sn mineralization,including advanced fractionation and depressurization-induced rapid cooling,were revealed in the case study of the Guyong granitic pluton linked with the Xiaolonghe Sn deposit,in the Tengchong block,SW China.The Guyong granitic pluton comprises three petrological facies:less evolved biotite syenogranite,evolved alkali granite and leucogranite,and highly evolved facies(the protolith of greisenized granite).Similar crystallization ages(~77 Ma)and gradual contact between different petrological facies indicate the Guyong granitic pluton records a continuous fractionation process.Monte Carlo-revised Rayleigh fractionation model suggests the fractionation degree of the Guyong pluton is markedly high(>87 wt.%)that can only be achieved by a high initial water(≥4 wt.%)content in the parent granitic magma revealed by rhyolite-MELTS calculation.Advanced degree fractionation causes the first Sn enrichment but it also significantly increases the viscosity of evolved magmas,suppressing the exsolution and transport of hydrothermal fluids.Hence,it must be compensated by the second critical factor:depressurization-induced rapid cooling,reflected by the occurrence of highly metamict zircons in the greisenized granite.The highly metamict feature,indicated by the large full width at half maximum(FWHM)values of zirconν3(SiO_(4)) peak(>19.5 cm^(-1)),suggests these zircons do not experience thermal annealing but rapidly ascend into a shallow cooling environment.Depressurization-induced rapid cooling facilitates exsolution and transport of hydrothermal fluids,interacting with wall rocks and resulting in Sn mineralization.

Exploring the metamorphic consequences of secular change in the siliciclastic compositions of continental margins

Shale and greywacke compositions from the Archean to Phanerozoic record a secular change in the siliciclastic material that comprises much of Earth＇s continental margins, past and present. This study explores the metamorphic consequence of these compositional changes, by comparing phase equilibrium models constructed for average Archean, Proterozoic, and Phanerozoic shale and greywacke compositions equilibrated along two Barrovian-type geotherms： 1330℃/GPa（A） and 800 ℃/GPa（B）. Our models show that Archean siliciclastic rocks can retain up to 4 vol.% water at middle to lower crustal conditions, nearly twice that of Proterozoic and Phanerozoic compositions. The increased ferromagnesium content of Archean siliciclastic rocks stabilizes chlorite to higher temperatures and results in a biotite-rich assemblage at solidus temperatures. Accordingly, water-absent biotite dehydration melting is predicted to play a greater role in the generation of melt in the metamorphism of Archean aged units,and water-absent muscovite dehydration melting is of increasing importance through the Proterozoic and Phanerozoic. This secular variation in predicted mineral assemblages demonstrates the care with which metamorphic facies diagrams should be applied to Archean compositions. Moreover, secular changes in the composition of shale and greywacke is reflected in the evolution of anatectic melt towards an increasingly less viscous, Ca-rich, and Mg-poor monzogranite.

Thermodynamic Research on Precipitates in Low Carbon Nb-Microalloyed Steels Produced by Compact Strip Production

Microalloying element Nb in low carbon steels produced by compact strip production （CSP） process plays an important role in inhibiting recrystallization, decreasing the transformation temperature and grain refinement.With decreasing the rolling temperature, dislocations can be pinned by carbonitrides and the strength is increased. Based on the two sublattice model, with metal atom sublattice and interstitial atom sublattice,a thermodynamic model for carbonitride was established to calculate the equilibrium between matrix and carbonitride. In the steel produced by CSP, the calculation results showed that the starting temperature of precipitation of Ti and Nb are 1340℃ and 1040℃, respectively. In the range of 890-950℃, Nb rapidly precipitated. And the maximum of the atomic fraction of Nb in carbonitride was about 0.68. The morphologies and energy spectrum of the precipitates showed that （NbTi） （CN） precipitated near the dislocations. The experiment results show that Nb rapidly precipitated when the temperature was lower than 970℃, and the atomic fraction of Nb in carbonitride was about 60%-80%. The calculation results are in agreement with the experiment data. Therefore the thermodynamic model can be a useful assistant tool in the research on the precipitates in the low carbon steels produced by CSP.

Design and Numerical Simulation of an Arctic Ocean Circulation and Thermodynamic Sea－Ice Model

In this paper, the first version of a new Arctic Ocean circulation and thermodynamic sea-ice model is presentedby the authors based on the framework of a twenty-layer World Oceanic general circulation model developed byZhang et al. in 1994. The model's domain covers the Arctic Ocean and Greenland-Norwegian Seas with the horizontal resolution of 200 km×200 km on a stereographic projection plane. In vertical, the model uses the Eta-coordinate(Sigma modified to have quasi-horizontal coordinate surfaces) and has ten unevenly-spaced layers to cover the deepest water column of 3000 m. Two 150-year integrations of coupling the ocean circulation model with the sea-icemodel have been performed with seasonally cyclic surface boundary conditions. The only difference between the tWoexperiments is in the model's geography. Some preliminary analyses of the experimental results have been done focused on the following aspects: (1) surface layer temperature, salinity and current; (2) the' Atlantic Layer'; (3)sea-ice cover and its seasonal variation. In comparison with the available observational data, these results are acceptable with reasonable accuracy.

Thermodynamic modeling of the La-Mg-Y system and Mg-based alloys database

As an example of the La-Mg-Y system, the method how to set up the themaodynamic model of individual phases was introduced in the process of thermodynamic optimization. The solution phases （liquid, body-centered cubic, face-centered cubic, hexagonal close-packed and double hexagonal close-packed） were modeled with the Redlich-Kister equation. The compound energy model has been used to describe the thermodynamic functions of the intermetallic compounds in the La-Mg-Y systems. The compounds Mg2Y, Mg24Y5, Mg12La, Mg17La2, Mg41Las, Mg3La and Mg2La in the La-Mg-Y system were treated as the formulae （Mg,Y）2（La,Mg,Y）, Mg24（La,Mg,Y）4Y, Mg12（La, Y）, Mg17（La,Y）2, Mg41（La,Y）5, Mg3（La,Mg,Y） and Mg2（La, Y）, respectively. A model （La, Mg,Y）0.5（La,Mg,Y）0.5 was applied to describe the compound MgM formed by MgLa and MgY in order to cope with the order-disorder transition between body-centered cubic solution （A2） and MgM with CsCl-type structure （B2） in the La-Mg-Y system. The Gibbs energies of individual phases were optimized in the La-Mg, La-Y and La-Mg-Y systems by CALPHAD technique. The projection of the liquidus surfaces for the La-Mg-Y system was predicted. The Mg-based alloys database including 36 binary and 15 ternary systems formed by Mg, Al, Cu, Ni, Mn, Zn and rare earth elements was set up in SGTE standard.

Inter-comparisons of thermodynamic sea-ice modeling results using various parameterizations of radiative flux

Radiative fluxes are of primary importance in the energy and mass balance of the sea-ice cover. Various parameterizations of the radiative fluxes are studied in a thermodynamic sea-ice model. Model outputs of the surface radiative and heat fluxes and mass balance are compared with observations. The contribution of short-wave radiation is limited to a long part of winter. Therefore, simple schemes are often sufficient. Errors in estimations of the short-wave radiation are due mainly to cloud effects and occasionally to multi-reflection between surface and ice crystals in the air. The long-wave radiation plays an important role in the ice surface heat and mass balance during most part of a winter. The effect of clouds on the accuracy of the simple radiative schemes is critical, which needs further attention. In general, the accuracy of an ice model depends on that of the radiative fluxes.

A novel hybrid thermodynamic model for pore size distribution characterisation for shale

Scholars often see the gas adsorption technique as a straight-to-interpret technique and adopt the pore size distribution(PSD)given by the gas adsorption technique directly to interpret pore-structure-related issues.The oversimplification of interpreting shale PSD based on monogeometric thermodynamic models leads to apparent bias to the realistic pore network.This work aims at establishing a novel thermodynamic model for shale PSD interpretation.We simplified the pore space into two geometric types—cylinder-shaped and slit-shaped.Firstly,Low-temperature Nitrogen Adsorption data were analyzed utilizing two monogeometric models(cylindrical and slit)to generate PSD_(cyl).and PSD_(slit);Secondly,pore geometric segmentation was carried out using Watershed by flooding on typical SEM images to obtain the ratio of slit-shaped(∅_(s))and cylinder-shaped pores(∅_(c)).Combining the results of the two,we proposed a novel hybrid model.We performed pyrolysis,XRD,FE-SEM observation,quantitative comparison with the results obtained by the DFT model,and fractal analysis to discuss the validity of the obtained PSD_(Hybrid).The results showed that:the hybrid model proposed in this work could better reflect the real geometry of pore space and provide a more realistic PSD;compared with thermodynamic monogeometric models,PSD obtained from the hybrid model are closer to that from the DFT model,with an improvement in the deviation from the DFT model from 5.06%to 68.88%.The proposed hybrid model has essential application prospects for better interpretation of shale pore space.It is also worth noting that we suggest applying the proposed hybrid model for PSD analysis in the range of 5-100 nm.

Thermodynamic Behavior Research Analysis of Twin-roll Casting Lead Alloy Strip Process

The thermodynamic behavior of twin-roll casting （TRC） lead alloy strip process directly affects the forming of the lead strip, the quality of the lead strip and the production efficiency. However, there is little research on the thermodynamics of lead alloy strip at home and abroad. The TRC lead process is studied in four parameters： the pouring temperature of molten lead, the depth of molten pool, the roll casting speed, and the rolling thickness of continuous casting. Firstly, the thermodynamic model for TRC lead process is built. Secondly, the thermodynamic behavior of the TRC process is simulated with the use of Fluent. Through the thermodynamics research and analysis, the process parameters of cast rolling lead strip can be obtained： the pouring temperature of molten lead： 360-400 ℃, the depth of molten pool： 250-300 mm, the roll casting speed： 2.5-3 m/min, the rolling thickness： 8-9 mm. Based on the above process parameters, the optimal parameters（the pouring temperature of molten lead： 375-390 ℃, the depth of molten pool： 285-300 mm, the roll casting speed： 2.75-3 m/min, the rolling thickness： 8.5-9 mm） can be gained with the use of the orthogonal experiment. Finally, the engineering test of TRC lead alloy strip is carried out and the test proves the thermodynamic model is scientific, necessary and correct. In this paper, a detailed study on the thermodynamic behavior of lead alloy strip is carried out and the process parameters of lead strip forming are obtained through the research, which provide an effective theoretical guide for TRC lead alloy strip process.

Behavior and control of chlorine in dyestuff residue incineration

Dyestuffresidue, a type of hazardous waste, is incinerated in the tubular furnace, and thermodynamic equilibrium model is used to calculate and analyze the chlorine behavior. The HCI emission and its effects on the behaviors of heavy metals are studied. Meanwhile, the effects of three dechlorine reagents are predicted at a high temperature. Results show that HCI emission is dependent on incineration temperature. The HCl evaporated mainly derives from the organic chlorine. Under the working condition of 500-- 900℃, the main products of rig, Pb, Cu, Ni, Zn, and Mn in reaction with HCl are HgCl2 （g）, PbCl4（g）, PbCI2 （g）, （CuCl）3 （g）, NiCl2 （s）, NiCl2 （g）, ZnCl2 （s）, ZnCl2 （g）, Zn （g）, MnCl2 （s）, and MnCl2 （g）, respectively. Among the three dechlorine reagents, CaCO3 is optimal to remove chlorine at high temperature, little of HCl is released below 800℃, whereas Fe3O4 is unstable at high temperature.

Adsorption isotherms and kinetic characteristics of methane on block anthracite over a wide pressure range

It is important to quantitatively understand the methane adsorption and transport mechanism in coal for an evaluation of the reserves and for its production forecast. In this work, a block coal sample was chosen to perform the CH_4 adsorption experiments using the gravimetric method at temperatures of 293.60 K, 311.26 K, 332.98 K and 352.55 K and pressures up to 19 MPa. The excess adsorption capacity of CH_4 in dry block anthracite increased, followed by a sequence decrease with the increasing pressure. High temperature restrained the growth of the excess adsorption due to that the adsorption is an intrinsically physical and exothermic process. The excess adsorption peak decreased slowly with the increase of temperature and intersected at a pressure of more than 18 MPa; meanwhile, the pressure at the excess adsorption peak increased. The existing correlations were exanfined in terms of density rather than pressure. The DR＋k correlation, with an average relative deviation of 4-0.51%, fitted our data better than the others, with an average relative deviation of up to 2.29%. The transportation characteristics of CH_4 adsorption was also investigated in this study, including the adsorption rate and diffusion in block coal. The kinetic data could be described by a modified unipore model. The adsorption rates were found to exhibit dependence on pressure and temperature at low pressures, while the calculated diffusivities exhibited little temperature dependence. In addition, the kinetic characteristics were compared between CH_4 and CO_2 adsorption on the block coal. The excess adsorption ratios of CO_2 to CH_4 obtained from the DR＋k model decreased with the increasing pressure.

Simplified Thermodynamic Model for Pro-Eutectoid Ferrite Formation in Multicomponent Structural Steel

By introducing aparameter of difference in ferrite formation temperature between binary Fe-C and multicomponent system,and referring to the thermodynamic model for Fe-C binary system,a simplified thermodynamic model for pro-eutectoid ferrite formation in Fe-ΣXiC multicomponent structural steels(Xi=Mn,Si,Mo,Cr,Ni or Ti,etc)was suggested.The comparison of the calculated Ae3 temperatures with the measured data of steels 42 shows that the relative standard deviation and root-mean-square(RMS)error between them are only 0.71% and 8.92 K,respectively.However,the deviations between the same measured data and the values calculated from the superelement model are as high as 1.86% and 23.83 K,respectively.It can be concluded that the simplified thermodynamic model for pro-eutectoid ferrite formation in multicomponent structural steels is acceptable and the calculated Ae3 temperatures are in good agreement with the experimental data.

A thermodynamic model of calculating mass action concentrations for structural units or ion couples in NaClO_4-H_2O and NaF-H_2O binary solutions and NaClO_4-NaF-H_2O ternary solution

A thermodynamic model of calculating mass action concentrations for structural units or ion couples in NaClO4-H2O and NaF-H2O binary solutions and NaClO4-NaF-H2O ternary strong electrolyte aqueous solutions was developed based on the ion and molecule coexistence theory （IMCT）. A transformation coefficient was needed to compare the calculated mass action concentration and the reported activity, because they were usually obtained at different standard states and concentration units. The results show that transformation coefficients between the calculated mass action concentrations and the reported activities of the same components change in a very narrow range. The transformed mass action concentrations of structural units or ion couples in NaClO4-H2O and NaF-H2O binary solutions agree well with the reported activities. The transformed mass action concentrations of structural units or ion couples in NaClO4-NaF-H2O ternary solution are also in good agreement with the reported activities in a total ionic strength range from 0.1 to 0.9 mol/kg H2O by the 0.1 mol/kg step with different ionic strength fractions of 0, 0.2, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.8, and 1, respectively. The results indicate that the developed thermodynamic model can reveal the structural characteristics of binary and ternary strong electrolyte aqueous solutions, and the calculated mass action concentrations of structural units or ion couples also strictly follow the mass action law.