Projecting Spring Consecutive Rainfall Events in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Triple-Nested Dynamical Downscaling

Spring consecutive rainfall events(CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area(TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models(GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6(Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6,indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6.

Characteristics and influencing mechanisms of production-living-ecological space dynamics in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area(TGRA),Chongqing,China

The Three Gorges Reservoir Area(TGRA)is an important ecological barrier in the Yangtze River Basin,China.Therefore,it is of great importance to understand the spatio-temporal variation and the driving factors of production-living-ecological spaces for sustainable and high-quality development in the TGRA.This study investigated the dynamic variation of production-living-ecological spaces in the TGRA by employing land use data in 2000,2005,2010,2015,and 2018,and detected the influencing factors by using the Geographic detector(GeoDetector).Results implied that the structure and dynamic trajectories of production-living-ecological spaces in the TGRA varied in both horizontal and vertical directions,and the study area was dominated by ecological space.A spatial orientation towards the northeast was detected in the evolution of production-living-ecological spaces during 2000-2018.In terms of quantity,the transition from ecological space(grassland and woodland)to agriculture land accounted for the largest proportion from 2000 to 2018.However,the reverse transition from agriculture land to ecological space has increased since 2000 with the efforts of“Grain for Green”.In terms of temporal scale,there was a fluctuating trend in production space with the continuous expansion of living space,while ecological space showed an inverted U-shaped trend during 2000-2018.The dynamic pattern of production-living-ecological spaces in the TGRA was influenced by both physical and socio-economic variables as basic determinants and dominant driving factors,respectively.Finally,the harmonization and protection of production-living-ecological spaces still require policy-makers’efforts.This work may have potential in advancing our understanding about land use conflicts,and provide a reference for rational layout of spatial functions and the realization of sustainable development in the TGRA.

Microplastics in sediment of the Three Gorges Reservoir:abundance and characteristics under different environmental conditions

Freshwater microplastic pollution is an urgent issue of global concern,and research on the distribution in reservoirs is lacking.We investigated the microplastic pollution levels in wet sediments collected from the Three Gorges Reservoir,the largest reservoir of China.Results show that microplastics were ubiquitous in the sediments of the Three Gorges Reservoir,and their abundance ranged from 59 to 276 pp/kg(plastic particles per kg,dry weight).Economic development and total population were important factors affecting the spatial heterogeneity of microplastic abundance,and the contribution of large cities along the reservoir to microplastic pollution should be paid with more attention.Fibrous microplastics were the most abundant type of microplastic particles in reservoir sediments,whereas polystyrene,polypropylene,and polyamide were the main types of polymers.The apparent spatial heterogeneity in morphology and color of microplastics is attributed to different anthropogenic or landbased pollution sources.Moreover,the accumulation of microplastics near the inlet of tributaries reflects the role of potential contributors of tributaries.More importantly,multiple bisphenols(BPs)and heavy metals detected at the microplastic surfaces indicate that microplastics can act as carriers of these pollutants in the environment in the same way as sediments did,which may alter the environmental fate and toxicity of these pollutants.Therefore,we conclude that the Three Gorges Reservoir had been contaminated with microplastics,which posed a stress risk for organisms who ingest them along with their associated pollutants(BPs,heavy metals).

Preliminary Study on Early-warning System of Ecological Security in Water-Level-Fluctuating Zone (WLFZ) of Three Gorges Reservoir

The area,the scope as well as some ecological environment questions in Three Gorges Reservoir was briefly introduced. Then its early warning-system frame was preliminarily constructed,which includes ecological security dynamic monitoring,ecological security appraisal,ecological security forecast and ecological security decision-making management. The synthetic evaluation indicator system of the ecological security quality were initially established,which includes ecological environment pollution,land use and land cover change,geological hazard and epidemic outbreaks. At the same time,29 evaluating indicators were selected,divides into the basic factors,response factors and inducing factors,which need to be Real-time monitored.

Plankton community composition in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region revealed by PCR-DGGE and its relationships with environmental factors

To explore the relationships between community composition and the environment in a reservoir ecosystem, plankton communities from the Three Gorges Reservoir Region were studied by PCR-denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis fingerprinting. Bacterial and eukaryotic operational taxonomic units （OTUs）, generated by DGGE analysis of the PCR-amplified 16S and 18S rRNA genes, were used as surrogates for the dominant ＂biodiversity units＂. OTU composition among the sites was heterogeneous; 46.7% of the total bacterial OTUs （45） and 64.1% of the eukaryotic OTUs （39） were identified in less than half of the sampling sites. Unweighted pair group method with arithmetic averages （UPGMA） clustering of the OTUs suggested that the plankton communities in the Xiangxi Rive sites were not always significantly different from those from the Yangtze River sites, despite clear differences in their environmental characterizations. Canonical correspondence analysis （CCA） was applied to further investigate the relationships between OTU composition and the environmental factors. The first two CCA ordination axes suggested that the bacterial community composition was primarily correlated with the variables of NO3^--N, dissolved oxygen （DO）, and SiO3^2--Si, whereas, the eukaryotic community was mainly correlated with the concentrations of DO, PO4^3--P, and SiO3^2--Si.

Reductions in non-point source pollution through different management practices for an agricultural watershed in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area

Non-point source water pollution generated by agricultural production is considered a major environmental issue in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area （TGRA） of China. The Annualised Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution （AnnAGNPS） model was selected to assess the impact of the application of various management treats, including seven crops, five fertilizer levels and three-group management practice scenarios, on water quality from Heigou River Watershed in TGRA. The scenario subsets include conservation tillage practice （CTP）, conservation reserve program （CRP） and conversion of cropland into forestland program （CCFP）. Results indicated that tea can not be replaced by other crops because comparatively tea resulted in a higher sediment yield. CTP with no-tillage was more effective to reduce sediment yield, but could increased nutrient loss. CRP reduced sediment yield significantly, but slightly benefited on nutrient loss. CCFP reduced not only sediment yield but also the nutrient loss significantly. The conversion of cropland with a slope greater than 10° into forestland was found to be the best scenario as the sediment yield export is less than 5 tons/ha and nutrient loss is within the permissible limit.

Fractal characterization of sediment particle-size distribution in the water-level fluctuation zone of the Three Gorges Reservoir, China

The combined effect of periodic water impoundment and seasonal natural flood events has created a 30 m high water-level fluctuation zone(WLFZ) around the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR), China, forming a unique eco-landscape. Siltation, eutrophication, enrichment of heavy metals, and methane emissions in the WLFZ have been widely associated with sediment and soil particles generated from the upstream catchment or upland slopes. However, little attention has been paid to the complexity of sediment particle-size distributions in the WLFZ. In the present study, core samples(from a 345 cm thick sediment core from the base of the WLFZ), slope transect surface samples(across/up a WLFZ slope), and along-river/longitudinal surface samples(from the reservoir reaches) were collected. Laser granulometry and a volume-based fractal model were used to reveal the characteristics of sediment particle-size distributions. Results indicate that the alternation of coarse and fine particles in the sedimentary core profile is represented as a fluctuation of low and high values of fractal dimension(D), ranging from 2.59 to 2.77. On the WLFZ slope transect, surface sediment particles coarsen with increasing elevation, sand content increases from 3.3% to 78.5%, and D decreases from 2.76 to 2.53. Longitudinally, surface sediments demonstrate a downstream-fining trend, and D increases gradually downstream. D is significantly positively correlated with the fine particle content. We conclude that D is a useful measure for evaluating sediment particle-size distribution.

Prediction of chlorophyll a concentration using HJ-1 satellite imagery for Xiangxi Bay in Three Gorges Reservoir

Since the impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir in 2003, algal blooms have frequently been observed in it. The chlorophyll a concentration is an important parameter for evaluating algal blooms. In this study, the chlorophyll a concentration in Xiangxi Bay, in the Three Gorges Reservoir, was predicted using HJ-1 satellite imagery. Several models were established based on a correlation analysis between in situ measurements of the chlorophyll a concentration and the values obtained from satellite images of the study area from January 2010 to December 2011. Chlorophyll a concentrations in Xiangxi Bay were predicted based on the established models. The results show that the maximum correlation is between the reflectance of the band combination of B4/（B2＋B3） and in situ measurements of chlorophyll a concentration. The root mean square errors of the predicted values using the linear and quadratic models are 18.49 mg/m3 and 18.52 mg/m3, respectively, and the average relative errors are 37.79% and 36.79%, respectively. The results provide a reference for water bloom prediction in typical tributaries of the Three Gorges Reservoir and contribute to large-scale remote sensing monitoring and water quality management.

Dynamics of Rodent and Rodent-borne Disease during Construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir from 1997 to 2012

Objective To investigate the impact of impoundment and active public health interventions on rodent populations and rodent-borne diseases in the Three Gorges reservoir region from 1997 to 2012. Methods Surveillance data from 1997 to 2012 were extracted from the Public Health Surveillance System of The Three Gorges established in 1997. Temporal changes in the incidences of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome （HFRS） and leptospirosis, rodent density, pathogen-carrying rates, and their correlations were analyzed. Results The average indoor and outdoor rodent densities decreased overall from 1997 to 2012. The average densities decreased by 47.72% （from 4.38% to 2.29%） and 39.68% （from 4.41% to 2.66%）, respectively, after impoundment （2003-2012） compared with before impoundment （1997-2002）. The average annual incidence rates of HFRS and leptospirosis were 0.29/100,000 and 0.52/100,000, respectively, and decreased by 85.74% （from 0.68/100,000 to 0.10/100,000） and 95.73% （from 1.47/100,000 to 0.06S/100,000）, respectively, after impoundment compared with before impoundment. Incidences of HFRS and leptospirosis appear to be positively correlated with rodent density in the reservoir area. Conclusion This study demonstrated that rodent density and incidences of rodent-borne diseases decreased and were maintained at low levels during construction of the Three Gorges dam. Measures that reduce rodent population densities could be effective in controlling rodent-borne diseases during large-scale hydraulic engineering construction.

Spatial-temporal Pattern and Differences of Land Use Changes in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of China during 1975-2005

Regional land use changes are an important part of global changes.The research on land use changes in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area of China attracts a lot of attention owing to the Three Gorges Dam building.The Three Gorges Reservoir Area becomes one of the important research areas.This study analyzed the transforming processes and traits of each land use type and the regional differences of land use changes during the past 30 years,summarized the distribution of different land use types in different buffer zones and regresses the equation areas and different buffer distances based on buffer analyses and regression analyses,and then analyzed the transforming rules in different buffer distances,got the optimal influence distances.The research results indicate that,(1) cultivated land lies at the northwest of the reservoir and was decreasing,however,the construction land was increasing,especially the urban construction land,a large number of land was flooded because of the reservoir water level rise;(2) urban area was sprawling quickly in developed and neighboring areas,and a great deal of cultivated land and a considerable amount of grassland were occupied;in the earlier time,rural settlements occupied lots of cultivated land and a sum of forestry land in the later time;(3) the optimum influenced distances for cultivated land and forestry land were 10-35 km,and for urban and rural settlements were in 5-20 km.Overall,this research can reflect the spatial-temporal characteristics of land use changes during the 30 years,and it is helpful for urban planning and land use planning in the reservoir area.

Reservoir-induced landslides and risk control in Three Gorges Project on Yangtze River,China

The Three Gorges region in China was basically a geohazard-prone area prior to construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir （TGR）. After construction of the TGR, the water level was raised from 70 m to 175 m above sea level （ASL）, and annual reservoir regulation has caused a 30-m water level difference after impoundment of the TGR since September 2008. This paper first presents the spatiotemporal distribution of landslides in six periods of 175 m ASL trial impoundments from 2008 to 2014. The results show that the number of landslides sharply decreased from 273 at the initial stage to less than ten at the second stage of impoundment. Based on this, the reservoir-induced landslides in the TGR region can be roughly classified into five failure patterns, i.e. accumulation landslide, dip-slope landslide, reversed bedding landslide, rockfall, and karst breccia landslide. The accumulation landslides and dip-slope landslides account for more than 90%. Taking the Shuping accumulation landslide （a sliding mass volume of 20.7 × 106 m^3） in Zigui County and the Outang dip-slope landslide （a sliding mass volume of about 90 × 106 m^3） in Fengjie County as two typical cases, the mechanisms of reactivation of the two landslides are analyzed. The monitoring data and factor of safety （FOS） calculation show that the accumulation landslide is dominated by water level variation in the reservoir as most part of the mass body is under 175 m ASL, and the dip-slope landslide is controlled by the coupling effect of reservoir water level variation and precipitation as an extensive recharge area of rainfall from the rear and the front mass is below 175 m ASL. The characteristics of landslide-induced impulsive wave hazards after and before reservoir impoundment are studied, and the probability of occurrence of a landslide-induced impulsive wave hazard has increased in the reservoir region. Simulation results of the Ganjingzi landslide in Wushan County indicate the strong relationship between landslide-induced surge and water variation with high potential risk to shipping and residential areas. Regarding reservoir regulation in TGR when using a single index, i.e. 1-d water level variation, water resources are not well utilized, and there is also potential risk of disasters since 2008. In addition, various indices such as 1-d, 5-d, and 10-d water level variations are proposed for reservoir regulation. Finally, taking reservoir-induced landslides in June 2015 for example, the feasibility of the optimizing indices of water level variations is verified.

Non-Point-Source Nitrogen and Phosphorus Loadings from a Small Watershed in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area

Non-point-source pollution has become a major threat to the water quality of the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR);however,nutrient loadings from terrestrial sources are unclear due to a lack of in situ monitoring.A representative small watershed in the central part of the TGR area was selected to monitor the loss of nitrogen(N) and phosphorous(P) continuously along with the runoff from 2007 through 2009 to understand the exact sources and loadings.Results show that the non-point-source nitrogen and phosphorus comes mainly from the storm runoff from residential areas,citrus orchards and sloping croplands,which contributes up to 76% of the loadings in this watershed.Thus,a crucial measure for controlling non-point-source pollution is to intercept storm runoff from the three sources.Paddy fields provide a sink for non-point-source N and P by intercepting the runoff and sediment along with their different forms of nitrogen and phosphorus.The N and P removal efficiency by paddy fields from residential areas is within the range of 56% to 98%.Paddy fields are an important land-use option for reducing the non-point-source loading of N and P in the TGR area.

Estimation of Potential Risk of Reservoir-Induced Earthquake for the Proposed Hydroelectric Project on the Yangtze Gorges

The proposed hydroelectric project on the Yangtze Gorges will be one of the largest power stations in the world.The problem of induced seismicity to the project has attracted much attention throughout China and the world.A research program has been carried out by the State Seismological Bureau of China.Based on the size of the reservoir and the lithology,geological structure,permeability,stress state,and previous seismicity in the region,the potential risk of reservoir-induced seismicity has been estimated.The results suggest that,after impoundment in the reservoir area,the possibility of induced seismicity cannot be completely ruled out.The areas with potential risk may be in some gorges composed of karstified carbonate and plutonic granite around the dam site.However,the magnitude is expected to be limited owing to the small dimension of the induced seismogenic faults.

Support Vector Regression Model of Chlorophyll-<i>a</i>during Spring Algal Bloom in Xiangxi Bay of Three Gorges Reservoir, China

To study the relationship between chlorophyll-a and environmental variables during spring algal bloom in Xiangxi Bay of Three Gorges Reservoir, the support vector regression (SVR) model was established. In surveys, 11 stations have been investigated and 264 samples were collected weekly from March 4 to May 13 in 2007 and February 16 to May 10 in 2008. The parameters in SVR model were optimized by leave one out cross validation. The squared correlation coefficient R2 and the cross validated squared correlation coefficient Q2 of the optimal SVR model are 0.8202 and 0.7301, respectively. Compared with stepwise multiple linear regression and back propagation artificial neural network models using external validation, the SVR model has been shown to perform well for regression with the predictive squared correlation coefficient R2pred value of 0.7842 for the test set.

Remote Sense and GIS-Based Division of Landslide Hazard Degree in Wanzhou District of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area

An evaluation model divided landslide hazard degrees in Wanzhou District of Three Gorges Reservoir Area. The model was established by GIS techniques and took land use/cover, stratum characters, slope aspect, slope gradient, elevation difference and slope shape as evaluation factors. The data of land use/cover were obtained by remote sensing, and the weights of the factors mentioned above were established by the analytic hierarchy process （AHP）. The results indicate, low danger areas in the studied area account for 66.51%, and high danger areas and very high danger areas occupy 1/3 of the total area. The regions of high and very high danger are mainly located around the urban area of Wanzhou District and on the banks of the Yangtze River with a relatively large area, where collapse and landslide directly threats densely populated areas and Three Gorges Reservoir. Slope destabilization, if occurs, will bring huge loss to social economy. All research results are consistent with the actual conditions; therefore, they can be regarded as a useful basis for planning and constructing of the reservoir area.

Filling of the Three Gorges Reservoir to the 135-m Level: Instant Effects on the Yangtze Discharge and Suspended Sediment Concentration Entering the Estuary

Via the valuable opportunity of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) 135-m filling in June 2003, the Yangtze discharge and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) entering the estuary during the period from 15 May to 15 July 2003 were analyzed to examine the instant effects of the filling on them. The Yangtze discharge and SSC entering the estuary in the periods before, during and after the filling clearly indicated three phases: 1) the pre-storage phase characterized by natural conditions, in which the SSC increased with increasing water discharge; 2) the storage phase, during which the SSC decreased dramatically with decreasing water discharge; and 3) the post-storage phase, during which both the SSC and water discharge remained at relatively low levels first until the end of June, then the SSC increased gradually with increasing water discharge. It seems that the times for the instant effects of the decreasing discharge downstream from the upper Yangtze on the Yangtze discharge and SSC entering the estuary due to the TGR 135-m filling to take place were about 5 d and 1 d respectively, while both were about 18 d for those of the increasing discharge. This probably reflects the buffering and resultantly hysteresis of the 1800-km stretch from the upper Yangtze to the estuary. The results are helpful for scientific and hydrological investigation of the Yangtze mainstream downstream from the TGR Dam and of the estuarine and adjacent coastal waters.

Path Choice and Fiscal Policies of Three Gorges Reservoir in Post-Migration Era

The developmental status of the Three Gorges Reservoir in the post-migration era is expounded.Firstly,positioning of ecological reservoir is incompatible with its development;secondly,adopting the market selection and government-directed migration mode;thirdly,tough task in the post-migration era;fourthly,prevention of geological disasters and environmental management.After the analyses,the adoptable approaches for developing the Three Gorges Reservoir are concluded.The approaches cover supporting migrants and trying to stabilize and enrich them;supporting the development of industries around the reservoir;intensifying the construction of ecological environment in the reservoir;and strengthening the support of central fiscal policies.The policies and suggestions on developing the Three Gorges Reservoir from the perspective of fiscal policies are put forward.Firstly,they include the fiscal and tax measures on prompting ecological migration and stabilizing and enriching migrants.The specific measures include the fiscal and tax measures on promoting the employment of migrants;measures on providing social security for migrants;fiscal subsidies and preferential policies and increasing the input on solving the problems left after reconstruction.Secondly,they are the fiscal and tax measures for promoting the industrial development in the reservoir.The specific contents include displaying the functions of industrial fund to optimize the industrial structure of the reservoir;providing preferential policies on taxes to attract capitals and intensifying the strength of local finance.

The Main Ecological Issues of Water-Level -Fluctuating Zone and The strategies in Three Gorges Reservoir Area

After the completion of the Three Gorges dam, a 30 m high water-level-fluctuating zone （WLFZ） will appear along the banks, and will form a seasonal wetland ecosystem. According to the program of storing water in the Three Gorges reservoir, the main ecological and environmental problems probably incurred in WLFZ are discussed, such as formation of contaminated belt along banks, appearance of epidemic diseases in the reservoir region （including urban districts）, aggravation of geologic disasters, degradation of biodiversity and exacerbation of the ecosystem vulnerability. Six items of strategies are put forward according to the causes, distributed features and trends of these problems in this paper.

Influential Factors in Employment Location Selection Based on “Push-Pull” Migration Theory—A Case Study in Three Gorges Reservoir Area in China

In China, farmers employed in non-farm work have become important socio-economic actors, but few studies have examined the farmers' perspective in making their work location choices. Based on "push-pull" migration theory, this paper utilizes sectional data from a 2013 survey of farmers in China's Three Gorges Reservoir area to empirically analyze the factors influencing migrant workers' choice of employment location. The results indicate that 60.46% of laborers have migrated from their home province, whereas 39.54% have remained in their home province. Focusing on personal, household, and community characteristics—in addition to the economic characteristics of the sample counties—multinomial logistic regression models reveal that farmer-laborers' employment location decisions are influenced by their personal capital endowment(age, years of education and social networks), family structure(the number of laborers, elders, children and students), home village characteristics(location, economic development level and the degree of relief of the land) and home county economic development level. Notably, male and female laborers' location decisions reveal a converging trend, and their differences are not pronounced. Per capita arable land area has little influence on location decisions, whereas the educational level of laborers has a significant impact. The results differ significantly from those found in previous studies.

Flocculation properties of cohesive fine-grained sediment in the Three Gorges Reservoir under variable turbulent shear

Sediment flocculation is a key process for the deposition of fine-grained sediments in the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR)of China.Sediment flocculation influences the evolution of the river regime,but also hampers the smooth navigation in the long term.However,the flocculation process and its controlling factors are poorly understood.We experimentally determined the flocculation properties of cohesive sediment of samples from the TGR(predominantly a mixture of clay and silt)over a range of turbulent shear rates and sediment concentrations.The experiments were conducted in an almost isotropic turbulence field,which was simulated by an array of horizontal oscillating grids in a water tank.Sediment flocculation was recorded by a camera and investigated by image analysis.Our new data indicate that flocculation is generally a response in equilibrium median floc size(d_(f,50))to the increase of the shear rate G.The peak value is attained at G=16.5 s^(-1),where d_(f,50) is 81.3μm(for the suspended sediment concentration(ssc)=0.4 g/L)and 107μm(for ssc=0.7 g/L),respectively.At low shear rates(G<16.5 s^(-1)),the equilibrium floc sizes d_(f,50) increase with rising shear rate G and isinversely related to the Kolmogorov micro length scale η.We attribute this variability to an insufficient deposition time of the sediment flocs in the water tank.Settling velocities,calculated from our experimental data of the floc sizes,are almost consistent with in-situ measured settling velocities,and are ten times larger than the terminal settling velocity of primary particles as calculated from Stokes'law.