Uncertainties of landslide susceptibility prediction: Influences of random errors in landslide conditioning factors and errors reduction by low pass filter method

In the existing landslide susceptibility prediction(LSP)models,the influences of random errors in landslide conditioning factors on LSP are not considered,instead the original conditioning factors are directly taken as the model inputs,which brings uncertainties to LSP results.This study aims to reveal the influence rules of the different proportional random errors in conditioning factors on the LSP un-certainties,and further explore a method which can effectively reduce the random errors in conditioning factors.The original conditioning factors are firstly used to construct original factors-based LSP models,and then different random errors of 5%,10%,15% and 20%are added to these original factors for con-structing relevant errors-based LSP models.Secondly,low-pass filter-based LSP models are constructed by eliminating the random errors using low-pass filter method.Thirdly,the Ruijin County of China with 370 landslides and 16 conditioning factors are used as study case.Three typical machine learning models,i.e.multilayer perceptron(MLP),support vector machine(SVM)and random forest(RF),are selected as LSP models.Finally,the LSP uncertainties are discussed and results show that:(1)The low-pass filter can effectively reduce the random errors in conditioning factors to decrease the LSP uncertainties.(2)With the proportions of random errors increasing from 5%to 20%,the LSP uncertainty increases continuously.(3)The original factors-based models are feasible for LSP in the absence of more accurate conditioning factors.(4)The influence degrees of two uncertainty issues,machine learning models and different proportions of random errors,on the LSP modeling are large and basically the same.(5)The Shapley values effectively explain the internal mechanism of machine learning model predicting landslide sus-ceptibility.In conclusion,greater proportion of random errors in conditioning factors results in higher LSP uncertainty,and low-pass filter can effectively reduce these random errors.

Genome-wide association mapping and genomic prediction of stalk rot in two mid-altitude tropical maize populations

Maize stalk rot reduces grain yield and quality.Information about the genetics of resistance to maize stalk rot could help breeders design effective breeding strategies for the trait.Genomic prediction may be a more effective breeding strategy for stalk-rot resistance than marker-assisted selection.We performed a genome-wide association study(GWAS)and genomic prediction of resistance in testcross hybrids of 677 inbred lines from the Tuxpe?o and non-Tuxpe?o heterotic pools grown in three environments and genotyped with 200,681 single-nucleotide polymorphisms(SNPs).Eighteen SNPs associated with stalk rot shared genomic regions with gene families previously associated with plant biotic and abiotic responses.More favorable SNP haplotypes traced to tropical than to temperate progenitors of the inbred lines.Incorporating genotype-by-environment(G×E)interaction increased genomic prediction accuracy.

Comparative Study of Probabilistic and Least-Squares Methods for Developing Predictive Models

This article explores the comparison between the probability method and the least squares method in the design of linear predictive models. It points out that these two approaches have distinct theoretical foundations and can lead to varied or similar results in terms of precision and performance under certain assumptions. The article underlines the importance of comparing these two approaches to choose the one best suited to the context, available data and modeling objectives.

A systematic machine learning method for reservoir identification and production prediction

Reservoir identification and production prediction are two of the most important tasks in petroleum exploration and development.Machine learning(ML)methods are used for petroleum-related studies,but have not been applied to reservoir identification and production prediction based on reservoir identification.Production forecasting studies are typically based on overall reservoir thickness and lack accuracy when reservoirs contain a water or dry layer without oil production.In this paper,a systematic ML method was developed using classification models for reservoir identification,and regression models for production prediction.The production models are based on the reservoir identification results.To realize the reservoir identification,seven optimized ML methods were used:four typical single ML methods and three ensemble ML methods.These methods classify the reservoir into five types of layers:water,dry and three levels of oil(I oil layer,II oil layer,III oil layer).The validation and test results of these seven optimized ML methods suggest the three ensemble methods perform better than the four single ML methods in reservoir identification.The XGBoost produced the model with the highest accuracy;up to 99%.The effective thickness of I and II oil layers determined during the reservoir identification was fed into the models for predicting production.Effective thickness considers the distribution of the water and the oil resulting in a more reasonable production prediction compared to predictions based on the overall reservoir thickness.To validate the superiority of the ML methods,reference models using overall reservoir thickness were built for comparison.The models based on effective thickness outperformed the reference models in every evaluation metric.The prediction accuracy of the ML models using effective thickness were 10%higher than that of reference model.Without the personal error or data distortion existing in traditional methods,this novel system realizes rapid analysis of data while reducing the time required to resolve reservoir classification and production prediction challenges.The ML models using the effective thickness obtained from reservoir identification were more accurate when predicting oil production compared to previous studies which use overall reservoir thickness.

Methods for fatigue-life estimation:A review of the current status and future trends

With the development of modern industry and ever more complex structural loads,the possibility of fatigue failure is increasing.Fatigue analysis can be used to evaluate the service life of components and reduce the probability of accidents.Therefore,the development and application of fatigue-analysis technology have important research significance.This paper collects information from a wide field of literature and summarizes the current status of fatigue-analysis research.It covers related theoretical knowledge,fatigue-life prediction methods,and fatigue design methods and their application scenarios,and it summarizes the challenges and research hotspots in the field.On the basis of this examination,future development directions of fatigue-life prediction methods are proposed.The conclusions will have a certain guiding role in the development of fatigue-analysis methods.

Data-driven casting defect prediction model for sand casting based on random forest classification algorithm

The complex sand-casting process combined with the interactions between process parameters makes it difficult to control the casting quality,resulting in a high scrap rate.A strategy based on a data-driven model was proposed to reduce casting defects and improve production efficiency,which includes the random forest(RF)classification model,the feature importance analysis,and the process parameters optimization with Monte Carlo simulation.The collected data includes four types of defects and corresponding process parameters were used to construct the RF model.Classification results show a recall rate above 90% for all categories.The Gini Index was used to assess the importance of the process parameters in the formation of various defects in the RF model.Finally,the classification model was applied to different production conditions for quality prediction.In the case of process parameters optimization for gas porosity defects,this model serves as an experimental process in the Monte Carlo method to estimate a better temperature distribution.The prediction model,when applied to the factory,greatly improved the efficiency of defect detection.Results show that the scrap rate decreased from 10.16% to 6.68%.

A two-stage short-term traffic flow prediction method based on AVL and AKNN techniques

Short-term traffic flow prediction is one of the essential issues in intelligent transportation systems(ITS). A new two-stage traffic flow prediction method named AKNN-AVL method is presented, which combines an advanced k-nearest neighbor(AKNN)method and balanced binary tree(AVL) data structure to improve the prediction accuracy. The AKNN method uses pattern recognition two times in the searching process, which considers the previous sequences of traffic flow to forecast the future traffic state. Clustering method and balanced binary tree technique are introduced to build case database to reduce the searching time. To illustrate the effects of these developments, the accuracies performance of AKNN-AVL method, k-nearest neighbor(KNN) method and the auto-regressive and moving average(ARMA) method are compared. These methods are calibrated and evaluated by the real-time data from a freeway traffic detector near North 3rd Ring Road in Beijing under both normal and incident traffic conditions.The comparisons show that the AKNN-AVL method with the optimal neighbor and pattern size outperforms both KNN method and ARMA method under both normal and incident traffic conditions. In addition, the combinations of clustering method and balanced binary tree technique to the prediction method can increase the searching speed and respond rapidly to case database fluctuations.

Applications of Soft Computing Methods in Backbreak Assessment in Surface Mines: A Comprehensive Review

Geo-engineering problems are known for their complexity and high uncertainty levels,requiring precise defini-tions,past experiences,logical reasoning,mathematical analysis,and practical insight to address them effectively.Soft Computing(SC)methods have gained popularity in engineering disciplines such as mining and civil engineering due to computer hardware and machine learning advancements.Unlike traditional hard computing approaches,SC models use soft values and fuzzy sets to navigate uncertain environments.This study focuses on the application of SC methods to predict backbreak,a common issue in blasting operations within mining and civil projects.Backbreak,which refers to the unintended fracturing of rock beyond the desired blast perimeter,can significantly impact project timelines and costs.This study aims to explore how SC methods can be effectively employed to anticipate and mitigate the undesirable consequences of blasting operations,specifically focusing on backbreak prediction.The research explores the complexities of backbreak prediction and highlights the potential benefits of utilizing SC methods to address this challenging issue in geo-engineering projects.

Prediction of Superconductivity for Oxides Based on Structural Parameters and Artificial Neural Network Method

Superconductive properties for oxides were predicted by artificial neural network (ANN) method with structural and chemical parameters as inputs. The predicted properties include superconductivity for oxides, distributed ranges of the superconductive transition temperature (Tc) for complex oxides, and Tc values for cuprate superconductors. The calculated results indicated that the adjusted ANN can be used to predict superconductive properties for unknown oxides.

Phase equilibrium data prediction and process optimizationin butadiene extraction process

In response to the lack of reliable physical parameters in the process simulation of the butadiene extraction,a large amount of phase equilibrium data were collected in the context of the actual process of butadiene production by acetonitrile.The accuracy of five prediction methods,UNIFAC(UNIQUAC Functional-group Activity Coefficients),UNIFAC-LL,UNIFAC-LBY,UNIFAC-DMD and COSMO-RS,applied to the butadiene extraction process was verified using partial phase equilibrium data.The results showed that the UNIFAC-DMD method had the highest accuracy in predicting phase equilibrium data for the missing system.COSMO-RS-predicted multiple systems showed good accuracy,and a large number of missing phase equilibrium data were estimated using the UNIFAC-DMD method and COSMO-RS method.The predicted phase equilibrium data were checked for consistency.The NRTL-RK(non-Random Two Liquid-Redlich-Kwong Equation of State)and UNIQUAC thermodynamic models were used to correlate the phase equilibrium data.Industrial device simulations were used to verify the accuracy of the thermodynamic model applied to the butadiene extraction process.The simulation results showed that the average deviations of the simulated results using the correlated thermodynamic model from the actual values were less than 2%compared to that using the commercial simulation software,Aspen Plus and its database.The average deviation was much smaller than that of the simulations using the Aspen Plus database(>10%),indicating that the obtained phase equilibrium data are highly accurate and reliable.The best phase equilibrium data and thermodynamic model parameters for butadiene extraction are provided.This improves the accuracy and reliability of the design,optimization and control of the process,and provides a basis and guarantee for developing a more environmentally friendly and economical butadiene extraction process.

Uncertainties of landslide susceptibility prediction:influences of different study area scales and mapping unit scales

This study aims to investigate the effects of different mapping unit scales and study area scales on the uncertainty rules of landslide susceptibility prediction(LSP).To illustrate various study area scales,Ganzhou City in China,its eastern region(Ganzhou East),and Ruijin County in Ganzhou East were chosen.Different mapping unit scales are represented by grid units with spatial resolution of 30 and 60 m,as well as slope units that were extracted by multi-scale segmentation method.The 3855 landslide locations and 21 typical environmental factors in Ganzhou City are first determined to create spatial datasets with input-outputs.Then,landslide susceptibility maps(LSMs)of Ganzhou City,Ganzhou East and Ruijin County are pro-duced using a support vector machine(SVM)and random forest(RF),respectively.The LSMs of the above three regions are then extracted by mask from the LSM of Ganzhou City,along with the LSMs of Ruijin County from Ganzhou East.Additionally,LSMs of Ruijin at various mapping unit scales are generated in accordance.Accuracy and landslide suscepti-bility indexes(LSIs)distribution are used to express LSP uncertainties.The LSP uncertainties under grid units significantly decrease as study area scales decrease from Ganzhou City,Ganzhou East to Ruijin County,whereas those under slope units are less affected by study area scales.Of course,attentions should also be paid to the broader representativeness of large study areas.The LSP accuracy of slope units increases by about 6%–10%compared with those under grid units with 30 m and 60 m resolution in the same study area's scale.The significance of environmental factors exhibits an averaging trend as study area scale increases from small to large.The importance of environmental factors varies greatly with the 60 m grid unit,but it tends to be consistent to some extent in the 30 m grid unit and the slope unit.

Modelling of debris-flow susceptibility and propagation: a case study from Northwest Himalaya

The geological and geographical position of the Northwest Himalayas makes it a vulnerable area for mass movements particularly landslides and debris flows. Mass movements have had a substantial impact on the study area which is extending along Karakorum Highway(KKH) from Besham to Chilas. Intense seismicity, deep gorges, steep terrain and extreme climatic events trigger multiple mountain hazards along the KKH, among which debris flow is recognized as the most destructive geohazard. This study aims to prepare a field-based debris flow inventory map at a regional scale along a 200 km stretch from Besham to Chilas. A total of 117 debris flows were identified in the field, and subsequently, a point-based debris-flow inventory and catchment delineation were performed through Arc GIS analysis. Regional scale debris flow susceptibility and propagation maps were prepared using Weighted Overlay Method(WOM) and Flow-R technique sequentially. Predisposing factors include slope, slope aspect, elevation, Topographic Roughness Index(TRI), Topographic Wetness Index(TWI), stream buffer, distance to faults, lithology rainfall, curvature, and collapsed material layer. The dataset was randomly divided into training data(75%) and validation data(25%). Results were validated through the Receiver Operator Characteristics(ROC) curve. Results show that Area Under the Curve(AUC) using WOM model is 79.2%. Flow-R propagation of debris flow shows that the 13.15%, 22.94%, and 63.91% areas are very high, high, and low susceptible to debris flow respectively. The propagation predicated by Flow-R validates the naturally occurring debris flow propagation as observed in the field surveys. The output of this research will provide valuable input to the decision makers for the site selection, designing of the prevention system, and for the protection of current infrastructure.

Calculation and Analysis of TVMS Considering Profile Shifts and Surface Wear Evolution Process of Spur Gear

Profile shift is a highly effective technique for optimizing the performance of spur gear transmission systems.However,tooth surface wear is inevitable during gear meshing due to inadequate lubrication and long-term operation.Both profile shift and tooth surface wear(TSW)can impact the meshing characteristics by altering the involute tooth profile.In this study,a tooth stiffness model of spur gears that incorporates profile shift,TSW,tooth deformation,tooth contact deformation,fillet-foundation deformation,and gear body structure coupling is established.This model efficiently and accurately determines the time-varying mesh stiffness(TVMS).Additionally,an improved wear depth prediction method for spur gears is developed,which takes into consideration the mutually prime teeth numbers and more accurately reflects actual gear meshing conditions.Results show that consideration of the mutual prime of teeth numbers will have a certain impact on the TSW process.Furthermore,the finite element method(FEM)is employed to accurately verify the values of TVMS and load sharing ratio(LSR)of profile-shifted gears and worn gears.This study quantitatively analyzes the effect of profile shift on the surface wear process,which suggests that gear profile shift can partially alleviate the negative effects of TSW.The contribution of this study provides valuable insights into the design and maintenance of spur gear systems.

Co-salient object detection with iterative purification and predictive optimization

Background Co-salient object detection(Co-SOD)aims to identify and segment commonly salient objects in a set of related images.However,most current Co-SOD methods encounter issues with the inclusion of irrelevant information in the co-representation.These issues hamper their ability to locate co-salient objects and significantly restrict the accuracy of detection.Methods To address this issue,this study introduces a novel Co-SOD method with iterative purification and predictive optimization(IPPO)comprising a common salient purification module(CSPM),predictive optimizing module(POM),and diminishing mixed enhancement block(DMEB).Results These components are designed to explore noise-free joint representations,assist the model in enhancing the quality of the final prediction results,and significantly improve the performance of the Co-SOD algorithm.Furthermore,through a comprehensive evaluation of IPPO and state-of-the-art algorithms focusing on the roles of CSPM,POM,and DMEB,our experiments confirmed that these components are pivotal in enhancing the performance of the model,substantiating the significant advancements of our method over existing benchmarks.Experiments on several challenging benchmark co-saliency datasets demonstrate that the proposed IPPO achieves state-of-the-art performance.

A new production component method for natural gas development planning

Based on an analysis of the limitations of conventional production component methods for natural gas development planning,this study proposes a new one that uses life cycle models for the trend fitting and prediction of production.In this new method,the annual production of old and new wells is predicted by year first and then is summed up to yield the production for the planning period.It shows that the changes in the production of old wells in old blocks can be fitted and predicted using the vapor pressure model(VPM),with precision of 80%e95%,which is 6.6%e13.2%higher than that of other life cycle models.Furthermore,a new production prediction process and method for new wells have been established based on this life cycle model to predict the production of medium-to-shallow gas reservoirs in western Sichuan Basin,with predication error of production rate in 2021 and 2022 being 6%and 3%respectively.The new method can be used to guide the medium-and long-term planning or annual scheme preparation for gas development.It is also applicable to planning for large single gas blocks that require continuous infill drilling and adjustment to improve gas recovery.

Changes of coastline and tidal flat and its implication for ecological protection under human activities: Take China’s Bohai Bay as an example

The change processes and trends of shoreline and tidal flat forced by human activities are essential issues for the sustainability of coastal area,which is also of great significance for understanding coastal ecological environment changes and even global changes.Based on field measurements,combined with Linear Regression(LR)model and Inverse Distance Weighing(IDW)method,this paper presents detailed analysis on the change history and trend of the shoreline and tidal flat in Bohai Bay.The shoreline faces a high erosion chance under the action of natural factors,while the tidal flat faces a different erosion and deposition patterns in Bohai Bay due to the impact of human activities.The implication of change rule for ecological protection and recovery is also discussed.Measures should be taken to protect the coastal ecological environment.The models used in this paper show a high correlation coefficient between observed and modeling data,which means that this method can be used to predict the changing trend of shoreline and tidal flat.The research results of present study can provide scientific supports for future coastal protection and management.

Prediction Model of Wax Deposition Rate in Waxy Crude Oil Pipelines by Elman Neural Network Based on Improved Reptile Search Algorithm

A hard problem that hinders the movement of waxy crude oil is wax deposition in oil pipelines.To ensure the safe operation of crude oil pipelines,an accurate model must be developed to predict the rate of wax deposition in crude oil pipelines.Aiming at the shortcomings of the ENN prediction model,which easily falls into the local minimum value and weak generalization ability in the implementation process,an optimized ENN prediction model based on the IRSA is proposed.The validity of the new model was confirmed by the accurate prediction of two sets of experimental data on wax deposition in crude oil pipelines.The two groups of crude oil wax deposition rate case prediction results showed that the average absolute percentage errors of IRSA-ENN prediction models is 0.5476% and 0.7831%,respectively.Additionally,it shows a higher prediction accuracy compared to the ENN prediction model.In fact,the new model established by using the IRSA to optimize ENN can optimize the initial weights and thresholds in the prediction process,which can overcome the shortcomings of the ENN prediction model,such as weak generalization ability and tendency to fall into the local minimum value,so that it has the advantages of strong implementation and high prediction accuracy.

Weak and Strong Convergence of Self Adaptive Inertial Subgradient Extragradient Algorithms for Solving Variational Inequality Problems

Many solutions of variational inequalities have been proposed,among which the subgradient extragradient method has obvious advantages.Two different algorithms are given for solving variational inequality problem in this paper.The problem we study is defined in a real Hilbert space and has L-Lipschitz and pseudomonotone condition.Two new algorithms adopt inertial technology and non-monotonic step size rule,and their convergence can still be proved when the value of L is not given in advance.Finally,some numerical results are designed to demonstrate the computational efficiency of our two new algorithms.

Nonparametric Statistical Feature Scaling Based Quadratic Regressive Convolution Deep Neural Network for Software Fault Prediction

The development of defect prediction plays a significant role in improving software quality. Such predictions are used to identify defective modules before the testing and to minimize the time and cost. The software with defects negatively impacts operational costs and finally affects customer satisfaction. Numerous approaches exist to predict software defects. However, the timely and accurate software bugs are the major challenging issues. To improve the timely and accurate software defect prediction, a novel technique called Nonparametric Statistical feature scaled QuAdratic regressive convolution Deep nEural Network (SQADEN) is introduced. The proposed SQADEN technique mainly includes two major processes namely metric or feature selection and classification. First, the SQADEN uses the nonparametric statistical Torgerson–Gower scaling technique for identifying the relevant software metrics by measuring the similarity using the dice coefficient. The feature selection process is used to minimize the time complexity of software fault prediction. With the selected metrics, software fault perdition with the help of the Quadratic Censored regressive convolution deep neural network-based classification. The deep learning classifier analyzes the training and testing samples using the contingency correlation coefficient. The softstep activation function is used to provide the final fault prediction results. To minimize the error, the Nelder–Mead method is applied to solve non-linear least-squares problems. Finally, accurate classification results with a minimum error are obtained at the output layer. Experimental evaluation is carried out with different quantitative metrics such as accuracy, precision, recall, F-measure, and time complexity. The analyzed results demonstrate the superior performance of our proposed SQADEN technique with maximum accuracy, sensitivity and specificity by 3%, 3%, 2% and 3% and minimum time and space by 13% and 15% when compared with the two state-of-the-art methods.

基于TWOA-BP的矿井冲击地压分级预测研究

为提高煤矿开采工作的安全性,准确预测煤矿冲击地压灾害发生,提出冲击地压分级预测的TWOA-BP模型。先通过灰色关联分析法(GRA)筛选冲击地压的影响因素作为TWOA-BP预测模型的输入层,最终确定8项影响因素后,采用鲸鱼算法(WOA)对BP神经网络的权值和阈值进行优化,随后利用Tent混沌映射初始化鲸鱼种群以增加种群多样性,最终解决了BP模型收敛速度慢和易陷入局部极小的问题。研究结果表明:与其他预测模型相比,TWOA-BP方法具有收敛速度快、预测精度高、操作简便等特点。