Ocean temperature is an important physical variable in marine ecosystems,and ocean temperature prediction is an important research objective in ocean-related fields.Currently,one of the commonly used methods for ocean...Ocean temperature is an important physical variable in marine ecosystems,and ocean temperature prediction is an important research objective in ocean-related fields.Currently,one of the commonly used methods for ocean temperature prediction is based on data-driven,but research on this method is mostly limited to the sea surface,with few studies on the prediction of internal ocean temperature.Existing graph neural network-based methods usually use predefined graphs or learned static graphs,which cannot capture the dynamic associations among data.In this study,we propose a novel dynamic spatiotemporal graph neural network(DSTGN)to predict threedimensional ocean temperature(3D-OT),which combines static graph learning and dynamic graph learning to automatically mine two unknown dependencies between sequences based on the original 3D-OT data without prior knowledge.Temporal and spatial dependencies in the time series were then captured using temporal and graph convolutions.We also integrated dynamic graph learning,static graph learning,graph convolution,and temporal convolution into an end-to-end framework for 3D-OT prediction using time-series grid data.In this study,we conducted prediction experiments using high-resolution 3D-OT from the Copernicus global ocean physical reanalysis,with data covering the vertical variation of temperature from the sea surface to 1000 m below the sea surface.We compared five mainstream models that are commonly used for ocean temperature prediction,and the results showed that the method achieved the best prediction results at all prediction scales.展开更多
Natural slopes usually display complicated exposed rock surfaces that are characterized by complex and substantial terrain undulation and ubiquitous undesirable phenomena such as vegetation cover and rockfalls.This st...Natural slopes usually display complicated exposed rock surfaces that are characterized by complex and substantial terrain undulation and ubiquitous undesirable phenomena such as vegetation cover and rockfalls.This study presents a systematic outcrop research of fracture pattern variations in a complicated rock slope,and the qualitative and quantitative study of the complex phenomena impact on threedimensional(3D)discrete fracture network(DFN)modeling.As the studies of the outcrop fracture pattern have been so far focused on local variations,thus,we put forward a statistical analysis of global variations.The entire outcrop is partitioned into several subzones,and the subzone-scale variability of fracture geometric properties is analyzed(including the orientation,the density,and the trace length).The results reveal significant variations in fracture characteristics(such as the concentrative degree,the average orientation,the density,and the trace length)among different subzones.Moreover,the density of fracture sets,which is approximately parallel to the slope surface,exhibits a notably higher value compared to other fracture sets across all subzones.To improve the accuracy of the DFN modeling,the effects of three common phenomena resulting from vegetation and rockfalls are qualitatively analyzed and the corresponding quantitative data processing solutions are proposed.Subsequently,the 3D fracture geometric parameters are determined for different areas of the high-steep rock slope in terms of the subzone dimensions.The results show significant variations in the same set of 3D fracture parameters across different regions with density differing by up to tenfold and mean trace length exhibiting differences of 3e4 times.The study results present precise geological structural information,improve modeling accuracy,and provide practical solutions for addressing complex outcrop issues.展开更多
Numerical weather prediction of wind speed requires statistical postprocessing of systematic errors to obtain reliable and accurate forecasts.However,use of postprocessing models is often undesirable for extreme weath...Numerical weather prediction of wind speed requires statistical postprocessing of systematic errors to obtain reliable and accurate forecasts.However,use of postprocessing models is often undesirable for extreme weather events such as gales.Here,we propose a postprocessing algorithm based on a gale-aware deep attention network to simultaneously improve wind speed forecasts and gale area warnings.Specifically,the algorithm includes both a galeaware loss function that focuses the model on potential gale areas,and an observation station supervision strategy that alleviates the problem of missing extreme values caused by data gridding.The effectiveness of the proposed model was verified by using data from 235 wind speed observation stations.Experimental results show that our model can produce wind speed forecasts with a root-mean-square error of 1.1547 m s^(-1),and a Hanssen–Kuipers discriminant score of 0.517,performance that is superior to that of the other postprocessing algorithms considered.展开更多
基金The National Key R&D Program of China under contract No.2021YFC3101603.
文摘Ocean temperature is an important physical variable in marine ecosystems,and ocean temperature prediction is an important research objective in ocean-related fields.Currently,one of the commonly used methods for ocean temperature prediction is based on data-driven,but research on this method is mostly limited to the sea surface,with few studies on the prediction of internal ocean temperature.Existing graph neural network-based methods usually use predefined graphs or learned static graphs,which cannot capture the dynamic associations among data.In this study,we propose a novel dynamic spatiotemporal graph neural network(DSTGN)to predict threedimensional ocean temperature(3D-OT),which combines static graph learning and dynamic graph learning to automatically mine two unknown dependencies between sequences based on the original 3D-OT data without prior knowledge.Temporal and spatial dependencies in the time series were then captured using temporal and graph convolutions.We also integrated dynamic graph learning,static graph learning,graph convolution,and temporal convolution into an end-to-end framework for 3D-OT prediction using time-series grid data.In this study,we conducted prediction experiments using high-resolution 3D-OT from the Copernicus global ocean physical reanalysis,with data covering the vertical variation of temperature from the sea surface to 1000 m below the sea surface.We compared five mainstream models that are commonly used for ocean temperature prediction,and the results showed that the method achieved the best prediction results at all prediction scales.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2022YFC3080200)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42022053)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2023M731264).
文摘Natural slopes usually display complicated exposed rock surfaces that are characterized by complex and substantial terrain undulation and ubiquitous undesirable phenomena such as vegetation cover and rockfalls.This study presents a systematic outcrop research of fracture pattern variations in a complicated rock slope,and the qualitative and quantitative study of the complex phenomena impact on threedimensional(3D)discrete fracture network(DFN)modeling.As the studies of the outcrop fracture pattern have been so far focused on local variations,thus,we put forward a statistical analysis of global variations.The entire outcrop is partitioned into several subzones,and the subzone-scale variability of fracture geometric properties is analyzed(including the orientation,the density,and the trace length).The results reveal significant variations in fracture characteristics(such as the concentrative degree,the average orientation,the density,and the trace length)among different subzones.Moreover,the density of fracture sets,which is approximately parallel to the slope surface,exhibits a notably higher value compared to other fracture sets across all subzones.To improve the accuracy of the DFN modeling,the effects of three common phenomena resulting from vegetation and rockfalls are qualitatively analyzed and the corresponding quantitative data processing solutions are proposed.Subsequently,the 3D fracture geometric parameters are determined for different areas of the high-steep rock slope in terms of the subzone dimensions.The results show significant variations in the same set of 3D fracture parameters across different regions with density differing by up to tenfold and mean trace length exhibiting differences of 3e4 times.The study results present precise geological structural information,improve modeling accuracy,and provide practical solutions for addressing complex outcrop issues.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (62106169)。
文摘Numerical weather prediction of wind speed requires statistical postprocessing of systematic errors to obtain reliable and accurate forecasts.However,use of postprocessing models is often undesirable for extreme weather events such as gales.Here,we propose a postprocessing algorithm based on a gale-aware deep attention network to simultaneously improve wind speed forecasts and gale area warnings.Specifically,the algorithm includes both a galeaware loss function that focuses the model on potential gale areas,and an observation station supervision strategy that alleviates the problem of missing extreme values caused by data gridding.The effectiveness of the proposed model was verified by using data from 235 wind speed observation stations.Experimental results show that our model can produce wind speed forecasts with a root-mean-square error of 1.1547 m s^(-1),and a Hanssen–Kuipers discriminant score of 0.517,performance that is superior to that of the other postprocessing algorithms considered.
