Time series prediction of reservoir bank landslide failure probability considering the spatial variability of soil properties

Historically,landslides have been the primary type of geological disaster worldwide.Generally,the stability of reservoir banks is primarily affected by rainfall and reservoir water level fluctuations.Moreover,the stability of reservoir banks changes with the long-term dynamics of external disastercausing factors.Thus,assessing the time-varying reliability of reservoir landslides remains a challenge.In this paper,a machine learning(ML)based approach is proposed to analyze the long-term reliability of reservoir bank landslides in spatially variable soils through time series prediction.This study systematically investigated the prediction performances of three ML algorithms,i.e.multilayer perceptron(MLP),convolutional neural network(CNN),and long short-term memory(LSTM).Additionally,the effects of the data quantity and data ratio on the predictive power of deep learning models are considered.The results show that all three ML models can accurately depict the changes in the time-varying failure probability of reservoir landslides.The CNN model outperforms both the MLP and LSTM models in predicting the failure probability.Furthermore,selecting the right data ratio can improve the prediction accuracy of the failure probability obtained by ML models.

Association of daily sitting time and leisure-time physical activity with body fat among U.S.adults

Background:Prolonged sitting and reduced physical activity lead to low energy expenditures.However,little is known about the joint impact of daily sitting time and physical activity on body fat distribution.We investigated the independent and joint associations of daily sitting time and physical activity with body fat among adults.Methods:This was a cross-sectional analysis of U.S.nationally representative data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey2011-2018 among adults aged 20 years or older.Daily sitting time and leisure-time physical activity(LTPA)were self-reported using the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire.Body fat(total and trunk fat percentage)was determined via dual X-ray absorptiometry.Results:Among 10,808 adults,about 54.6%spent 6 h/day or more sitting;more than one-half reported no LTPA(inactive)or less than 150 min/week LTPA(insufficiently active)with only 43.3%reported 150 min/week or more LTPA(active)in the past week.After fully adjusting for sociodemographic data,lifestyle behaviors,and chronic conditions,prolonged sitting time and low levels of LTPA were associated with higher total and trunk fat percentages in both sexes.When stratifying by LTPA,the association between daily sitting time and body fat appeared to be stronger in those who were inactive/insuufficiently active.In the joint analyses,inactive/insuufficiently active adults who reported sitting more than 8 h/day had the highest total(female:3.99%(95%confidence interval(95%CI):3.09%-4.88%);male:3.79%(95%CI:2.75%-4.82%))and trunk body fat percentages(female:4.21%(95%CI:3.09%-5.32%);male:4.07%(95%CI:2.95%-5.19%))when compared with those who were active and sitting less than 4 h/day.Conclusion:Prolonged daily sitting time was associated with increased body fat among U.S.adults.The higher body fat associated with 6 h/day sitting may not be offset by achieving recommended levels of physical activity.

Prescribed Performance Tracking Control of Time-Delay Nonlinear Systems With Output Constraints

The problem of prescribed performance tracking control for unknown time-delay nonlinear systems subject to output constraints is dealt with in this paper. In contrast with related works, only the most fundamental requirements, i.e., boundedness and the local Lipschitz condition, are assumed for the allowable time delays. Moreover, we focus on the case where the reference is unknown beforehand, which renders the standard prescribed performance control designs under output constraints infeasible. To conquer these challenges, a novel robust prescribed performance control approach is put forward in this paper.Herein, a reverse tuning function is skillfully constructed and automatically generates a performance envelop for the tracking error. In addition, a unified performance analysis framework based on proof by contradiction and the barrier function is established to reveal the inherent robustness of the control system against the time delays. It turns out that the system output tracks the reference with a preassigned settling time and good accuracy,without constraint violations. A comparative simulation on a two-stage chemical reactor is carried out to illustrate the above theoretical findings.

Hybrid model for BOF oxygen blowing time prediction based on oxygen balance mechanism and deep neural network

The amount of oxygen blown into the converter is one of the key parameters for the control of the converter blowing process,which directly affects the tap-to-tap time of converter. In this study, a hybrid model based on oxygen balance mechanism (OBM) and deep neural network (DNN) was established for predicting oxygen blowing time in converter. A three-step method was utilized in the hybrid model. First, the oxygen consumption volume was predicted by the OBM model and DNN model, respectively. Second, a more accurate oxygen consumption volume was obtained by integrating the OBM model and DNN model. Finally, the converter oxygen blowing time was calculated according to the oxygen consumption volume and the oxygen supply intensity of each heat. The proposed hybrid model was verified using the actual data collected from an integrated steel plant in China, and compared with multiple linear regression model, OBM model, and neural network model including extreme learning machine, back propagation neural network, and DNN. The test results indicate that the hybrid model with a network structure of 3 hidden layer layers, 32-16-8 neurons per hidden layer, and 0.1 learning rate has the best prediction accuracy and stronger generalization ability compared with other models. The predicted hit ratio of oxygen consumption volume within the error±300 m^(3)is 96.67%;determination coefficient (R^(2)) and root mean square error (RMSE) are0.6984 and 150.03 m^(3), respectively. The oxygen blow time prediction hit ratio within the error±0.6 min is 89.50%;R2and RMSE are0.9486 and 0.3592 min, respectively. As a result, the proposed model can effectively predict the oxygen consumption volume and oxygen blowing time in the converter.

Geochemical and Isotopic Techniques Constraints on the Origin,Evolution,and Residence Time of Low-enthalpy Geothermal Water in Western Wugongshan,SE China

Geothermal resources are increasingly gaining attention as a competitive,clean energy source to address the energy crisis and mitigate climate change.The Wugongshan area,situated in the southeast coast geothermal belt of China,is a typical geothermal anomaly and contains abundant medium-and low-temperature geothermal resources.This study employed hydrogeochemical and isotopic techniques to explore the cyclic evolution of geothermal water in the western Wugongshan region,encompassing the recharge origin,water-rock interaction mechanisms,and residence time.The results show that the geothermal water in the western region of Wugongshan is weakly alkaline,with low enthalpy and mineralization levels.The hydrochemistry of geothermal waters is dominated by Na-HCO_(3)and Na-SO_(4),while the hydrochemistry types of cold springs are all Na-HCO_(3).The hydrochemistry types of surface waters and rain waters are NaHCO_(3)or Ca-HCO_(3).The δD and δ^(18)O values reveal that the geothermal waters are recharged by atmospheric precipitation at an altitude between 550.0 and 1218.6 m.Molar ratios of maj or solutes and isotopic compositions of^(87)Sr/^(86)Sr underscore the significant role of silicate weathering,dissolution,and cation exchange in controlling geothermal water chemistry.Additionally,geothermal waters experienced varying degrees of mixing with cold water during their ascent.Theδ^(13)C values suggest that the primary sources of carbon in the geothermal waters were biogenic and organic.Theδ^(34)S value suggests that the sulfates in geothermal water originate from sulfide minerals in the surrounding rock.Age dating using 3H and^(14)C isotopes suggests that geothermal waters have a residence time exceeding 1 kaBP and undergo a long-distance cycling process.

Origin of tradeoff between movement velocity and attachment duration of kinesin motor on a microtubule

Kinesin-1 motor protein is a homodimer containing two identical motor domains connected by a common long coiledcoil stalk via two flexible neck linkers. The motor can step on a microtubule with a velocity of about 1 μm·s-1and an attachment duration of about 1 s under physiological conditions. The available experimental data indicate a tradeoff between velocity and attachment duration under various experimental conditions, such as variation of the solution temperature,variation of the strain between the two motor domains, and so on. However, the underlying mechanism of the tradeoff is unknown. Here, the mechanism is explained by a theoretical study of the dynamics of the motor under various experimental conditions, reproducing quantitatively the available experimental data and providing additional predictions. How the various experimental conditions lead to different decreasing rates of attachment duration versus velocity is also explained.

Effect of sintering temperature and holding time on structure and properties of Li_(1.5)Ga_(0.5)Ti_(1.5)(PO_4)_(3)electrolyte with fast ionic conductivity

Li_(1.5)Ga_(0.5)Ti_(1.5)PO_(4))_(3)(LGTP)is recognized as a promising solid electrolyte material for lithium ions.In this work,LGTP solid electrolyte materials were prepared under different process conditions to explore the effects of sintering temperature and holding time on relative density,phase composition,microstructure,bulk conductivity,and total conductivity.In the impedance test under frequency of 1-10^(6) Hz,the bulk conductivity of the samples increased with increasing sintering temperature,and the total conductivity first increased and then decreased.SEM results showed that the average grain size in the ceramics was controlled by the sintering temperature,which increased from(0.54±0.01)μm to(1.21±0.01)μm when the temperature changed from 750 to 950°C.The relative density of the ceramics increased and then decreased with increasing temperature as the porosity increased.The holding time had little effect on the grain size growth or sample density,but an extended holding time resulted in crack generation that served to reduce the conductivity of the solid electrolyte.

Effect of aspect ratio of elliptical stirred vessel on mixing time and flow field characteristics in the absence of baffles

Elliptical tanks were used as an alternative to circular tanks in order to improve mixing efficiency and reduce mixing time in unbaffled stirred tanks(USTs). Five different aspect ratios of elliptical vessels were designed to compare their mixing time and flow field. Computational fluid dynamics(CFD) simulations were performed using the k–ε model to calculate the mixing time and simulate turbulent flow field features, such as streamline shape, velocity distribution, vortex core region distribution, and turbulent kinetic energy(TKE) transfer. Visualization was also carried out to track the tinctorial evolution of the liquid phase. Results reveal that elliptical stirred tanks can significantly improve mixing performance in USTs. Specifically, the mixing time at an aspect ratio of 2.00 is only 45.3% of the one of a circular stirred tank. Furthermore, the secondary flow is strengthened and the vortex core region increases with the increase of aspect ratio. The axial velocity is more sensitive to the aspect ratio than the circumferential and radial velocity. Additionally, the TKE transfer in elliptical vessels is altered. These findings suggest that elliptical vessels offer a promising alternative to circular vessels for enhancing mixing performance in USTs.

ESTIMATION OF AVERAGE DIFFERENTIAL ENTROPY FOR A STATIONARY ERGODIC SPACE-TIME RANDOM FIELD ON A BOUNDED AREA

In this paper,we mainly discuss a discrete estimation of the average differential entropy for a continuous time-stationary ergodic space-time random field.By estimating the probability value of a time-stationary random field in a small range,we give an entropy estimation and obtain the average entropy estimation formula in a certain bounded space region.It can be proven that the estimation of the average differential entropy converges to the theoretical value with a probability of 1.In addition,we also conducted numerical experiments for different parameters to verify the convergence result obtained in the theoretical proofs.

Dynamical distribution of continuous service time model involving non-Maxwellian collision kernel and value functions

The distribution of continuous service time in call centers is investigated.A non-Maxwellian collision kernel combining two different value functions in the interaction rule are used to describe the evolution of continuous service time,respectively.Using the statistical mechanical and asymptotic limit methods,Fokker–Planck equations are derived from the corresponding Boltzmann-type equations with non-Maxwellian collision kernels.The steady-state solutions of the Fokker–Planck equation are obtained in exact form.Numerical experiments are provided to support our results under different parameters.

Electrothermal Model Based Remaining Charging Time Prediction of Lithium-Ion Batteries against Wide Temperature Range

Battery remaining charging time(RCT)prediction can facilitate charging management and alleviate mileage anxiety for electric vehicles(EVs).Also,it is of great significance to improve EV users’experience.However,the RCT for a lithiumion battery pack in EVs changes with temperature and other battery parameters.This study proposes an electrothermal model-based method to accurately predict battery RCT.Firstly,a characteristic battery cell is adopted to represent the battery pack,thus an equivalent circuit model(ECM)of the characteristic battery cell is established to describe the electrical behaviors of a battery pack.Secondly,an equivalent thermal model(ETM)of the battery pack is developed by considering the influence of ambient temperature,thermal management,and battery connectors in the battery pack to calculate the temperature which is then fed back to the ECM to realize electrothermal coupling.Finally,the RCT prediction method is proposed based on the electrothermal model and validated in the wide temperature range from-20℃to 45℃.The experimental results show that the prediction error of the RCT in the whole temperature range is less than 1.5%.

Periodic signal extraction of GNSS height time series based on adaptive singular spectrum analysis

Singular spectrum analysis is widely used in geodetic time series analysis.However,when extracting time-varying periodic signals from a large number of Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)time series,the selection of appropriate embedding window size and principal components makes this method cumbersome and inefficient.To improve the efficiency and accuracy of singular spectrum analysis,this paper proposes an adaptive singular spectrum analysis method by combining spectrum analysis with a new trace matrix.The running time and correlation analysis indicate that the proposed method can adaptively set the embedding window size to extract the time-varying periodic signals from GNSS time series,and the extraction efficiency of a single time series is six times that of singular spectrum analysis.The method is also accurate and more suitable for time-varying periodic signal analysis of global GNSS sites.

Molecular mechanism of flowering time regulation in Brassica rapa:similarities and differences with Arabidopsis

Properly regulated flowering time is pivotal for successful plant reproduction.The floral transition from vegetative growth to reproductive growth is regulated by a complex gene regulatory network that integrates environmental signals and internal conditions to ensure that flowering takes place under favorable conditions.Brassica rapa is a diploid Cruciferae species that includes several varieties that are cultivated as vegetable or oil crops.Flowering time is one of the most important agricultural traits of B.rapa crops because of its influence on yield and quality.The transition to flowering in B.rapa is regulated by several environmental and developmental cues,which are perceived by several signaling pathways,including the vernalization pathway,the autonomous pathway,the circadian clock,the thermosensory pathway,and gibberellin(GA)signaling.These signals are integrated to control the expression of floral integrators BrFTs and BrSOC1s to regulate flowering.In this review,we summarized current research advances on the molecular mechanisms that govern flowering time regulation in B.rapa and compare this to what is known in Arabidopsis.

A Time-Domain Numerical Simulation for Free Motion Responses of Two Ships Advancing in Head Waves

The constant panel method within the framework of potential flow theory in the time domain is developed for solving the hydrodynamic interactions between two parallel ships with forward speed.When solving problems within a time domain framework,the free water surface needs to simultaneously satisfy both the kinematic and dynamic boundary conditions of the free water surface.This provides conditions for adding artificial damping layers.Using the Runge−Kutta method to solve equations related to time.An upwind differential scheme is used in the present method to deal with the convection terms on the free surface to prevent waves upstream.Through the comparison with the available experimental data and other numerical methods,the present method is proved to have good mesh convergence,and satisfactory results can be obtained.The constant panel method is applied to calculate the hydrodynamic interaction responses of two parallel ships advancing in head waves.Numerical simulations are conducted on the effects of forward speed,different longitudinal and lateral distances on the motion response of two modified Wigley ships in head waves.Then further investigations are conducted on the effects of different ship types on the motion response.

Seasonal Characteristics of Forecasting Uncertainties in Surface PM_(2.5)Concentration Associated with Forecast Lead Time over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Forecasting uncertainties among meteorological fields have long been recognized as the main limitation on the accuracy and predictability of air quality forecasts.However,the particular impact of meteorological forecasting uncertainties on air quality forecasts specific to different seasons is still not well known.In this study,a series of forecasts with different forecast lead times for January,April,July,and October of 2018 are conducted over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region and the impacts of meteorological forecasting uncertainties on surface PM_(2.5)concentration forecasts with each lead time are investigated.With increased lead time,the forecasted PM_(2.5)concentrations significantly change and demonstrate obvious seasonal variations.In general,the forecasting uncertainties in monthly mean surface PM_(2.5)concentrations in the BTH region due to lead time are the largest(80%)in spring,followed by autumn(~50%),summer(~40%),and winter(20%).In winter,the forecasting uncertainties in total surface PM_(2.5)mass due to lead time are mainly due to the uncertainties in PBL heights and hence the PBL mixing of anthropogenic primary particles.In spring,the forecasting uncertainties are mainly from the impacts of lead time on lower-tropospheric northwesterly winds,thereby further enhancing the condensation production of anthropogenic secondary particles by the long-range transport of natural dust.In summer,the forecasting uncertainties result mainly from the decrease in dry and wet deposition rates,which are associated with the reduction of near-surface wind speed and precipitation rate.In autumn,the forecasting uncertainties arise mainly from the change in the transport of remote natural dust and anthropogenic particles,which is associated with changes in the large-scale circulation.

Bifurcation and Stability Analysis of Time-Delayed Wheelset System under White Noise Excitation

Considering the impact of time delay in the lateral stiffness of the primary suspension and stochastic disturbances of equivalent conicity on the wheelset system, a stochastic time-delayed wheelset system is established. The wheelset system is transformed into a onedimensional Ito stochastic differential equation using central manifold and stochastic averaging methods. The analysis of the system's stochastic stability is conducted through the maximum Lyapunov exponent and singular boundary theory. The combination of the stationary probability density method and numerical simulation is employed to discuss the types and conditions of stochastic P-bifurcation in the wheelset system. The results indicate that changes in speed and time delay induce stochastic P-bifurcations in the wheelset system, while changes in noise intensity do not lead to stochastic P-bifurcations. Both time delay and equivalent conicity affect the critical speed of the wheelset system, and the critical speed gradually increases with the decrease of time delay and equivalent conicity.

Effect of slake durability on time dependent swelling behavior of red-bed siltstone in Sichuan Basin

The swelling behavior of red-bed rocks is a significant factor in the abnormal uplift of subgrades for high-speed railways constructed on the red stratum in the Sichuan Basin,China.The prime objective of this paper is to investigate the impact of mineralogical composition,moisture content,and overburden load on the time-dependent unconfined and oedometric swelling behavior of red-bed siltstone in the context of differences in the slake durability.Twenty samples were prepared for the swelling test,with eleven used for the unconfined swelling and slake index tests and nine for the oedometric swelling test.The temporal dependency of swelling is characterized by the viscosity coefficient of water absorption in a proposed swelling model.Results indicate that the swelling deformation of red-bed rocks is due to a combination of hydration swelling within the rock matrix and crack expansion caused by air breakage.In the unconfined swelling test,the final axial swelling strain of red-bed rocks decreases linearly with increasing slake index,while the viscosity coefficient increases exponentially with the slake index.In the oedometric swelling test,red-bed rocks with lower slake durability show greater sensitivity to lateral constraint and overburden load compared to those with higher slake durability.

Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Detection Based on Spatial-Temporal Network and Transformer in Industrial Internet of Things

In the Industrial Internet of Things(IIoT),sensors generate time series data to reflect the working state.When the systems are attacked,timely identification of outliers in time series is critical to ensure security.Although many anomaly detection methods have been proposed,the temporal correlation of the time series over the same sensor and the state(spatial)correlation between different sensors are rarely considered simultaneously in these methods.Owing to the superior capability of Transformer in learning time series features.This paper proposes a time series anomaly detection method based on a spatial-temporal network and an improved Transformer.Additionally,the methods based on graph neural networks typically include a graph structure learning module and an anomaly detection module,which are interdependent.However,in the initial phase of training,since neither of the modules has reached an optimal state,their performance may influence each other.This scenario makes the end-to-end training approach hard to effectively direct the learning trajectory of each module.This interdependence between the modules,coupled with the initial instability,may cause the model to find it hard to find the optimal solution during the training process,resulting in unsatisfactory results.We introduce an adaptive graph structure learning method to obtain the optimal model parameters and graph structure.Experiments on two publicly available datasets demonstrate that the proposed method attains higher anomaly detection results than other methods.

Age of Information for Short-Packet Covert Communication with Time Modulated Retrodirective Array

In this paper,the covert age of information(CAoI),which characterizes the timeliness and covertness performance of communication,is first investigated in the short-packet covert communication with time modulated retrodirective array(TMRDA).Specifically,the TMRDA is designed to maximize the antenna gain in the target direction while the side lobe is sufficiently suppressed.On this basis,the covertness constraint and CAoI are derived in closed form.To facilitate the covert transmission design,the transmit power and block-length are jointly optimized to minimize the CAoI,which demonstrates the trade-off between covertness and timelessness.Our results illustrate that there exists an optimal block-length that yields the minimum CAoI,and the presented optimization results can achieve enhanced performance compared with the fixed block-length case.Additionally,we observe that smaller beam pointing error at Bob leads to improvements in CAoI.

Flight Time Minimization of UAV for Cooperative Data Collection in Probabilistic LoS Channel

This paper investigates the data collection in an unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)-aided Internet of Things(IoT) network, where a UAV is dispatched to collect data from ground sensors in a practical and accurate probabilistic line-of-sight(LoS) channel. Especially, access points(APs) are introduced to collect data from some sensors in the unlicensed band to improve data collection efficiency. We formulate a mixed-integer non-convex optimization problem to minimize the UAV flight time by jointly designing the UAV 3D trajectory and sensors’ scheduling, while ensuring the required amount of data can be collected under the limited UAV energy. To solve this nonconvex problem, we recast the objective problem into a tractable form. Then, the problem is further divided into several sub-problems to solve iteratively, and the successive convex approximation(SCA) scheme is applied to solve each non-convex subproblem. Finally,the bisection search is adopted to speed up the searching for the minimum UAV flight time. Simulation results verify that the UAV flight time can be shortened by the proposed method effectively.