The contribution of this work is twofold： （1） a multimodality prediction method of chaotic time series with the Gaussian process mixture （GPM） model is proposed, which employs a divide and conquer strategy. It au...The contribution of this work is twofold： （1） a multimodality prediction method of chaotic time series with the Gaussian process mixture （GPM） model is proposed, which employs a divide and conquer strategy. It automatically divides the chaotic time series into multiple modalities with different extrinsic patterns and intrinsic characteristics, and thus can more precisely fit the chaotic time series. （2） An effective sparse hard-cut expec- tation maximization （SHC-EM） learning algorithm for the GPM model is proposed to improve the prediction performance. SHO-EM replaces a large learning sample set with fewer pseudo inputs, accelerating model learning based on these pseudo inputs. Experiments on Lorenz and Chua time series demonstrate that the proposed method yields not only accurate multimodality prediction, but also the prediction confidence interval SHC-EM outperforms the traditional variational 1earning in terms of both prediction accuracy and speed. In addition, SHC-EM is more robust and insusceptible to noise than variational learning.展开更多
High quality, concentrated sugar syrup crystal is produced in a critical step in cane sugar production： the clarification process. It is characterized by two variables： the color of the produced sugar and its clarit...High quality, concentrated sugar syrup crystal is produced in a critical step in cane sugar production： the clarification process. It is characterized by two variables： the color of the produced sugar and its clarity degree. We show that the temporal variations of these variables follow power-law distributions and can be well modeled by multiplicative cascade multifractal processes. These interesting properties suggest that the degradation in color and clarity degree has a systemwide cause. In particular, the cascade multifractal model suggests that the degradation in color and clarity degree can be equivalently accounted for by the initial ＂impurities＂ in the sugarcane. Hence, more effective cleaning of the sugarcane before the clarification stage may lead to substantial improvement in the effect of clarification.展开更多
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No 60972106the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation under Grant No 2014M561053+1 种基金the Humanity and Social Science Foundation of Ministry of Education of China under Grant No 15YJA630108the Hebei Province Natural Science Foundation under Grant No E2016202341
文摘The contribution of this work is twofold： （1） a multimodality prediction method of chaotic time series with the Gaussian process mixture （GPM） model is proposed, which employs a divide and conquer strategy. It automatically divides the chaotic time series into multiple modalities with different extrinsic patterns and intrinsic characteristics, and thus can more precisely fit the chaotic time series. （2） An effective sparse hard-cut expec- tation maximization （SHC-EM） learning algorithm for the GPM model is proposed to improve the prediction performance. SHO-EM replaces a large learning sample set with fewer pseudo inputs, accelerating model learning based on these pseudo inputs. Experiments on Lorenz and Chua time series demonstrate that the proposed method yields not only accurate multimodality prediction, but also the prediction confidence interval SHC-EM outperforms the traditional variational 1earning in terms of both prediction accuracy and speed. In addition, SHC-EM is more robust and insusceptible to noise than variational learning.
文摘High quality, concentrated sugar syrup crystal is produced in a critical step in cane sugar production： the clarification process. It is characterized by two variables： the color of the produced sugar and its clarity degree. We show that the temporal variations of these variables follow power-law distributions and can be well modeled by multiplicative cascade multifractal processes. These interesting properties suggest that the degradation in color and clarity degree has a systemwide cause. In particular, the cascade multifractal model suggests that the degradation in color and clarity degree can be equivalently accounted for by the initial ＂impurities＂ in the sugarcane. Hence, more effective cleaning of the sugarcane before the clarification stage may lead to substantial improvement in the effect of clarification.
