Operation safety risk analysis method of hydropower project considering time-dependent effect

In order to consider the time-dependent characteristic of risk factors of hydropower project,the method of stochastic process simulating structure resistance and load effect is adopted.On the basis of analyzing the structure characteristics and mode of operation,the operation safety risk rate assessment model of hydropower project is established on the comprehensive application of the improved analytic hierarchy process,the time-dependent reliability theory and the risk rate threshold.A scheme to demonstrate the time-dependent risk rate assessment method for an example of the earth-rock dam is particularly implemented by the proposed approach.The example shows that operation safety risk rate is closely related to both the service period and design standard;considering the effect of time-dependent,the risk rate increases with time and the intersection of them reflects the technical service life of structures.It could provide scientific basis for the operation safety and risk decision of the hydropower project by predicting the trend of risk rate via this model.

Long-term deformation analysis of Shuibuya concrete face rockfill dam based on response surface method and improved genetic algorithm

Due to the size effects of rockfill materials, the settlement difference between numerical simulation and in situ monitoring of rockfill dams is a topic of general concern.The constitutive model parameters obtained from laboratory triaxial tests often underestimate the deformation of high rockfill dams.Therefore, constitutive model parameters obtained by back analysis were used to calculate and predict the long-term deformation of rockfill dams.Instead of using artificial neural networks (ANNs), the response surface method (RSM) was employed to replace the finite element simulation used in the optimization iteration.Only 27 training samples were required for RSM, improving computational efficiency compared with ANN, which required 300 training samples.RSM can be used to describe the relationship between the constitutive model parameters and dam settlements.The inversion results of the Shuibuya concrete face rockfill dam (CFRD) show that the calculated settlements agree with the measured data, indicating the accuracy and efficiency of RSM.

Prediction of land subsidence caused by groundwater exploitation in Hanoi, Vietnam, using multifactorial correlation analysis

Multifactorial correlation analysis is a new method used to predict the land subsidence caused by groundwater exploitation This article introduces and applies the method to establish the function of the surface settlement rate （Vs） and the function of the time-dependent surface settlement （St） caused by groundwater exploitation, based on data acquired at three land subsidence monitoring stations in the Hanoi area of Vietnam. Comparison with actual monitoring data indicates that the prediction results are relatively close to the monitoring data. From this, we conclude that multifactorial correlation analysis is a reliable method and can be used to predict future land subsidence caused by groundwater exploitation in Hanoi.

Kriging-based reliability analysis of the long-term stability of a deep driftconstructed in the Callovo-Oxfordian claystone

Callovo-Oxfordian(COx)claystone has been considered as a potential host rock for geological radioactive waste disposal in France(Cigéo project).During the exploitation phase(100 years),the stability of drifts(e.g.galleries/alveoli)within the disposal is assured by the liner,which includes two layers:concrete arch segment and compressible material.The latter exhibits a significant deformation capacity(about 50%)under low stress(<3 MPa).Although the response of these underground structures can be governed by complex thermo-hydro-mechanical coupling,the creep behavior of COx claystone has been considered as the main factor controlling the increase of stress state in the concrete liner and hence the long-term stability of drifts.Therefore,by focusing only on the purely mechanical behavior,this study aims at investigating the uncertainty effect of the COx claystone time-dependent properties on the stability of an alveolus of Cigéo during the exploitation period.To describe the creep behavior of COx claystone,we use Lemaitre’s viscoplastic model with three parameters whose uncertainties are identified from laboratory creep tests.For the reliability analysis,an extension of a well-known Kriging metamodeling technique is proposed to assess the exceedance probability of acceptable stress in the concrete liner of the alveolus.The open-source code Code_Aster is chosen for the direct numerical evaluations of the performance function.The Kriging-based reliability analysis elucidates the effect of the uncertainty of COx claystone on the long-term stability of the concrete liner.Moreover,the role of the compressible material layer between the concrete liner and the host rock is also highlighted.

Comparison of Cox proportional hazards model,Cox proportional hazards with time-varying coefficients model,and lognormal accelerated failure time model:Application in time to event analysis of melioidosis patients

Objective:To compare the prognostic factors of mortality among melioidosis patients between lognormal accelerated failure time(AFT),Cox proportional hazards(PH),and Cox PH with time-varying coefficient(TVC)models.Methods:A retrospective study was conducted from 2014 to 2019 among 453 patients who were admitted to Hospital Sultanah Bahiyah,Kedah and Hospital Tuanku Fauziah,Perlis in Northern Malaysia due to confirmed-cultured melioidosis.The prognostic factors of mortality from melioidosis were obtained from AFT survival analysis,and Cox’s models and the findings were compared by using the goodness of fit methods.The analyses were done by using Stata SE version 14.0.Results:A total of 242 patients(53.4%)survived.In this study,the median survival time of melioidosis patients was 30.0 days(95%CI 0.0-60.9).Six significant prognostic factors were identified in the Cox PH model and Cox PH-TVC model.In AFT survival analysis,a total of seven significant prognostic factors were identified.The results were found to be only a slight difference between the identified prognostic factors among the models.AFT survival showed better results compared to Cox's models,with the lowest Akaike information criteria and best fitted Cox-snell residuals.Conclusions:AFT survival analysis provides more reliable results and can be used as an alternative statistical analysis for determining the prognostic factors of mortality in melioidosis patients in certain situations.

Expansion of Linear Analysis of Rayleigh-Taylor Interface Instability of Metal Materials

The linear analysis of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in metal material is extended from the perfect plastic constitutive model to the Johnson-Cook and Steinberg-Guinan constitutive model, and from the constant loading to a time-dependent loading. The analysis is applied to two Rayleigh-Taylor instability experiments in aluminum and vanadium with peak pressures of 20 GPa and 90 GPa, and strain rates of 6 × 106 s&minus;1 and 3 × 107 s&minus;1 respectively. When the time-dependent loading and the Steinberg-Guinan constitutive model are used in the linear analysis, the analytic results are in close agreement with experiments quantitatively, which indicates that the method in this paper is applicable to the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in aluminum and vanadium metal materials under high pressure and high strain rate. From these linear analyses, we find that the constitutive models and the loading process are of crucial importance in the linear analysis of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in metal material, and a better understanding of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in metals is gained. These results will serve as important references for evolving high-pressure, high-strain-rate experiments and numerical simulations.

Numerical analysis of electromagnetic force field through the use of two examples

In modern processing of conducting materials, such as steel,the time-varying electromagnetic field plays a key role in obtaining the desired microstructure or eliminating solidification defects such as porosity and segregation in cast billets. Up to now,few studies on the induced electromagnetic force （also called the Lorentz force） field in liquid metal have been reported. Compared with the magnetic field, the induced force field is the real and only direct cause for flow control. The electromagnetic force is comprised of two components. One is time-independent and the other is time- dependent. The time-dependent component varies with time in both amplitude and direction. When it reaches the extreme value,it can be one dozen times larger than the time-independent component. In this paper, a new method to quantitatively describe the induced electromagnetic force in liquid metal under a harmonic electromagnetic field,including both its time- independent and dependent components, was proposed based on the formula derivation from the data of amplitude and phase angle. Through this method ,the features of the time-dependent component were discussed, including the directions of rotation and the long axis. As a result, the force pattern was described. With two example calculations, the method was explained in detail. The results of both examples show that the force field in liquid metal can be divided into several regions with different force features. Example 1 shows the effect of coil position on the evolution of the force field pattern in liquid metal. Example 2 is a kind of stirring by the travelling magnetic field ,whose results present the sub-structures in metal and show that most of them have almost the same rotating direction.

Establishing time-dependent model of deformation modulus caused by bedrock excavation rebound by inverse analysis method

Rock rebound relaxation deformation,or even rock burst,caused by the excavation of dam base and abutment or high rock slope affects their stability and results in the fall of mechanical properties of the rock.So an inverse analysis method was proposed in this paper to establish the time-dependent model of deformation modulus caused by excavation rebound.The basic principle is based on the combination of observed data of the excavation rebound deformation of dam abutment or rock slope,and the calculated rebound deformation by FEM under ground stress at the corresponding time in the excavation process.The norm of the residuals of observed data and calculated data are taken as the objective function.Accordingly,the time-dependent model of bedrock deformation modulus can be established.The method displays its significance in the design of excavation,construction and operation management of dam base and high slope.

Safety lifetime analysis method for multi-mode time-dependent structural system

It is important to determine the safety lifetime of Multi-mode Time-Dependent Structural System(MTDSS). However, there is still a lack of corresponding analysis methods.Therefore, this paper establishes MTDSS safety lifetime model firstly, and then proposes a Kriging surrogate model based method to estimate safety lifetime. The first step of proposed method is to construct the Kriging model of MTDSS performance function by using extremum learning function. By identifying possible extremum mode of MTDSS, the performance function of MTDSS can be equivalently transformed into the one of Single-mode Time-Dependent Structure(STDS).The second step is to use the Advanced First Failure Instant Learning Function(AFFILF) to train the Kriging model constructed in the first step, so that the convergent Kriging model can identify the possible First Failure Instant(FFI) of STDS. Then safety lifetime can be searched quickly by dichotomy search. By using AFFILF, the minimum instant that the state is not accurately identified by the current Kriging model is selected as the training point, which avoids the unnecessary calculation which may be introduced into the existing First Failure Instant Learning Function(FFILF).In addition, the Candidate Sample Pool(CSP) reduction strategy is also adopted. By adaptively deleting the random candidate sample points whose FFI have been accurately identified by the current Kriging model, the training efficiency is further improved. Three cases show that the proposed method is accurate and efficient.

D^0-~0 mixing sensitivity estimation at Belle II in wrong-sign decays D^0→K^+π^-π~0 via time-dependent amplitude analysis

The sensitivity of the D^0-D^-0 mixing parameters x and y is estimated in the wrong-sign decay D^0→K^＋π^-π^0 by time-dependent amplitude analysis. The resolution of the D^0 lifetime is essential in time-dependent Dalitz analyses. The Belle II detector, which aims to collect a total integrated luminosity of 50 ab^-1 of data, has σ = 140 fs in Monte Carlo studies, a factor of two improvement over that of Belle and Ba Bar, so the produced Dalitz signal Monte Carlo samples are smeared with this resolution. Then a time-dependent Dalitz plot fitting is performed on these smeared samples, and the sensitivity of D^0-D^-0 mixing parameters are σx = 0.057% and σy = 0.049%. These are about an order of magnitude improvement on current experimental results, without considering background effects.

Interpretation of Adiabatic and Diabatic Populations from Trajectories of Branching Corrected Surface Hopping

The branching corrected surface hopping(BCSH)has been demonstrated as a robust approach to improve the performance of the traditional fewest switches surface hopping(FSSH)for nonadiabatic dynamics simulations of standard scattering problems[J.Chem.Phys.150,164101(2019)].Here,we study how reliable populations of both adiabatic and diabatic states can be interpreted from BCSH trajectories.Using exact quantum solutions and FSSH results as references,we investigate a series of one-dimensional two-level scattering models and illustrate that excellent timedependent populations can be obtained by BCSH.Especially,we show that different trajectory analysis strategies produce noticeable differences in different representations.Namely,the method based on active states performs better to get populations of adiabatic states,while the method based on wavefunctions produces more reliable results for populations of diabatic states.

Estimation of the Piecewise Exponential Model by Bayesian P-Splines via Gibbs Sampling: Robustness and Reliability of Posterior Estimates

In the investigation of disease dynamics, the effect of covariates on the hazard function is a major topic. Some recent smoothed estimation methods have been proposed, both frequentist and Bayesian, based on the relationship between penalized splines and mixed models theory. These approaches are also motivated by the possibility of using automatic procedures for determining the optimal amount of smoothing. However, estimation algorithms involve an analytically intractable hazard function, and thus require ad-hoc software routines. We propose a more user-friendly alternative, consisting in regularized estimation of piecewise exponential models by Bayesian P-splines. A further facilitation is that widespread Bayesian software, such as WinBUGS, can be used. The aim is assessing the robustness of this approach with respect to different prior functions and penalties. A large dataset from breast cancer patients, where results from validated clinical studies are available, is used as a benchmark to evaluate the reliability of the estimates. A second dataset from a small case series of sarcoma patients is used for evaluating the performances of the PE model as a tool for exploratory analysis. Concerning breast cancer data, the estimates are robust with respect to priors and penalties, and consistent with clinical knowledge. Concerning soft tissue sarcoma data, the estimates of the hazard function are sensitive with respect to the prior for the smoothing parameter, whereas the estimates of regression coefficients are robust. In conclusion, Gibbs sampling results an efficient computational strategy. The issue of the sensitivity with respect to the priors concerns only the estimates of the hazard function, and seems more likely to occur when non-large case series are investigated, calling for tailored solutions.

Subjective well-being and mortality among the older people in China

The present study investigates the effects of subjective well-being(SWB)on mortality risk using a large sample from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Study conducted in 1998,2000,2002,2005,2008,2011 and 2014.SWB is measured by life satisfaction,positive affect and negative affect.We found that positive affect,negative affect,life satisfaction and the change of life satisfaction significantly have predicted mortality risks of the older people with control of social demographic characteristics,physical health,social support,cognitive ability,and social participation.The higher the positive affect,the lower the negative affect,the improvement the life satisfaction,the lower the mortality risk.Marital status plays a decisive role in the influence of life satisfaction on the mortality risk.The married persons have lower mortality risk even if they rate their life bad.In further analyses,we found that the effects of SWB on mortality risk were underestimated in short-term study compared with those in long-term study.SWB is essentially a time-dependent variable and changes with age,so treating SWB as time-independent variable underestimated its impact on mortality risk.