Determination of time-dependent strengths of salt pillars based on strain energy principle

The objective of this study is to determine the time-dependent strengths of salt mine pillars in the Maha Sarakham formation, northeast of Thailand. Strain rate-controlled triaxial compression tests have been performed on salt specimens under confining pressures from 0 MPa to 12 MPa. The strain rates are from 10^(-7) s^(-1) to 10^(-4) s^(-1). The axial stresses and lateral strains are monitored through the strain-softening region. The results indicate that the strengths and elastic moduli increase exponentially with the strain rates. The power creep law parameters are calibrated with the test results, and hence allows constructing series of strain-time curves for the salt pillars under different depths and extraction ratios. The strain energy density principle is applied to develop a strength criterion for the salt pillars. Combining this criterion with the series of the strain-time curves the time-dependent strengths of the salt pillars for different extraction ratios can be predicted.

An Ordering Policy for Deteriorating Items with Time-Dependent Quadratic Demand and Salvage Value under Permissible Delay in Payment

The article deals with an economic order quantity (EOQ) inventory model for deteriorating items in which the supplier provides the purchaser a permissible delay in payment. This is so when deterioration of units in the inventory is subject to constant deterioration rate, demand rate is quadratic function of time and salvage value is associated with the deteriorated units. Shortages in the system are not allowed to occur. A mathematical formulation is developed when the supplier offers a permissible delay period to the customers under two circumstances: 1) when delay period is less than the cycle of time;and 2) when delay period is greater than the cycle of time. The method is suitable for the items like state-of-the-art aircrafts, super computers, laptops, android mobiles, seasonal items and machines and their spare parts. A solution procedure algorithm is given for finding the optimal order quantity which minimizes the total cost of an inventory system. The article includes numerical examples to support the effectiveness of the developed model. Finally, sensitivity analysis on some parameters on optimal solution is provided.

基于GNSS的西秦岭北缘断裂带现今活动特征研究

基于1999~2007年、2009~2013年、2013~2017年和2017~2021年共4期GNSS地壳运动速度场构建GNSS速度剖面,分析西秦岭北缘断裂带各次级断裂现今地壳差异运动特征,并进一步建立负位错模型反演获取各次级断裂现今闭锁程度与滑动亏损速率。结果表明:1)西秦岭北缘断裂带现今整体呈现出以左旋走滑为主、兼逆冲挤压的活动特征。2)1999~2007年,锅麻滩段和天水-宝鸡段整体处于强闭锁状态,漳县段和鸳凤段仅部分区段闭锁且闭锁程度较低,闭锁深度也较浅;2009~2013年,西秦岭北缘断裂带中段闭锁程度有所减弱,鸳凤段东部与天水-宝鸡段东部由较强闭锁转变为蠕滑状态,锅麻滩段和天水-宝鸡段中西部依然呈强闭锁状态;2013~2017年,西秦岭北缘断裂带整体处于较强闭锁状态,仅天水-宝鸡段东部呈蠕滑状态;2017~2021年,锅麻滩段中西部、漳县段、鸳凤段东部和天水-宝鸡段中部处于较强闭锁状态,鸳凤段中西部与天水-宝鸡段西部则呈蠕滑状态。3)各次级断裂滑动亏损速率整体分布特征与断裂闭锁程度基本一致。西秦岭北缘断裂带锅麻滩段和天水-宝鸡段中部现今处于较强闭锁状态,具有较强的应变能累积背景。

南海北部涠洲岛边缘珊瑚礁的生物侵蚀实验研究

在全球变化背景下,边缘珊瑚礁面临着来自自然与人类的双重压力。海水富营养化引起的生物侵蚀加剧,虽然较为隐蔽,但却会对珊瑚群落的发育以及礁格架的稳定性产生不良影响,是边缘珊瑚礁潜在的危害之一。本研究在南海北部涠洲岛三个典型的边缘珊瑚礁开展了近一年的原位侵蚀实验,定量分析了珊瑚礁的生物侵蚀强度与侵蚀速率,并结合卫星遥感监测的水体环境参数,探究了珊瑚礁侵蚀与海水环境的关系。研究发现,内部大型侵蚀生物的侵蚀速率相比侵蚀强度更能够指示海水富营养盐与高浊度环境,而侵蚀强度能够体现侵蚀生物的群落演替阶段。此外,将涠洲岛生物侵蚀速率数据与全球其他典型珊瑚礁区域进行对比,发现涠洲岛生物侵蚀速率处于全球中等水平(以内部大型侵蚀生物为主导),但在其所属的“人为边缘礁”类型中为较低水平。结合气候变化、城市化发展、礁体健康状况等趋势以及本研究结果,推测涠洲岛的生物侵蚀可能会继续加强,达到“人为边缘礁”的高侵蚀水平,并进一步加剧珊瑚礁的退化。

短种植体的临床应用研究进展

种植修复时常面临可用骨高度不足的问题,使用短种植体可解决骨增量手术之需。短种植体作为骨增量手术的替代治疗方案,在临床上已取得较好的短期效果,但短种植体的远期存留率还偏低,仍需临床进一步验证。本文就短种植体的定义、结构特点、临床应用、临床效果及展望等相关进行综述。

计及线路-源-储灵活性的电力系统分层优化调度方法

当前关于系统灵活性提升的优化调度研究主要聚焦于量化灵活性需求或挖掘源-荷-储灵活资源供给,而未考虑通过线路提供传输支撑能力满足灵活性需求,提出计及线路-源-储灵活性的电力系统分层优化调度方法。基于线路动态增容技术计算线路动态传输容量,提出线路灵活性动态传输裕量,以量化线路传输灵活性;对火电、抽水蓄能和电化学储能的灵活性及调峰特性进行分析;构建以线路灵活性动态传输裕量及源-储灵活供给为机会约束条件的分层优化调度模型,优化机组出力并选择需要配置动态增容装置的线路。改进的IEEE39节点系统仿真结果表明,所提方法能够提高线路传输能力以及系统灵活性。

间接空冷翅片管束临界防冻特性及防冻裕量研究

间接空冷翅片管束目前缺乏全面的冬季防冻运行参数。为此,首先凝练了管束防冻模型,包括热平衡方程、水侧和空气侧输运准则方程、防冻约束条件;其次依托典型顺逆流式空冷翅片管束,分析了2类管束临界防冻特性和防冻裕量;最后探究了中间型、左侧型、侧面型进水方式管束的临界值特点。结果表明:环境温度和入口水温降低、风速增加,管束防冻流量增加,且入口水温越低,风速影响更突出;逆流式管束防冻性能劣于顺流式管束,随风速增加或入口水温降低,二者差异扩大;入口水温抬升对防冻裕量影响分为3个梯次,为显著增加区间(0℃, 10℃]、变化缓慢区间(10℃, 20℃]、基本不变区间(20℃, 40℃],不可一直增加入口水温来防冻;中间型管束防冻性能优于左侧型和侧面型,空冷燃煤火电或核电机组应优先选用。研究结果可为我国空冷机组冬季防冻运行提供指导。

Prognostic factors in resectable cholangiocarcinoma patients: Carcinoembryonic antigen, lymph node, surgical margin and chemotherapy

AIM: To evaluate outcomes in resectable cholangiocarcinoma patients and to determine prognostic factors. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted among newly-diagnosed cholangiocarcinoma patients from January 2009 to December 2011 who underwent curative resection in Srinakarind Hospital (a 1000-bed university hospital). Two hundred and sixty-three cholangiocarcinoma patients with good performance were enrolled. These patients had pathological reports with clear margins or microscopic margins. Prognostic factors which included clinical factors, serum liver function test as well as serum tumor makers at presentation,tumor data, and receiving adjuvant chemotherapy were determined by uniand multivariate analysis. RESULTS: The median overall survival time was 17 mo (95%CI: 13.2-20.7); and 1-, 2-, and 3year survival rates were 65.5%, 45.2% and 35.4%. Serum albumin levels, serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels, staging classifications by American Joint Committee on cancer, pathological tumor staging, lymph node metastases, tumor grading, surgical margin status, and if adjuvant chemotherapy was administered, were shown to be significant prognostic factors of resectable cholangiocarcinoma by univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis, however, established that only abnormal serum CEA [hazard ratio (HR) 1.68; P = 0.027] and lymph node metastases (HR 2.27; P = 0.007) were significantly associated with a decrease in overall survival, while adjuvant chemotherapy (HR 0.71; P = 0.067) and surgical margin negative (HR 0.72; P = 0.094) tended to improve survival time. CONCLUSION: Serum CEA and lymph node metastases which were associated with advanced stage tumors become strong negative prognostic factors in cholangiocarcinoma.

The stability margin on EAST tokamak

The experimental advanced superconducting tokamak （EAST） is the first full superconducting tokamak with a D-shaped cross-sectional plasma presently in operation. Its poloidal coils are relatively far from the plasma due to the necessary thermal isolation from the superconducting magnets, which leads to relatively weaker coupling between plasma and poloidal field. This may cause more difficulties in controlling the vertical instability by using the poloidal coils. The measured growth rates of vertical stability are compared with theoretical calculations, based on a rigid plasma model. Poloidal beta and internal inductance are varied to investigate their effects on the stability margin by changing the values of parameters αn and γn（Howl et al 1992 Phys. Fluids B 4 1724）, with plasma shape fixed to be a configuration with k = 1.9 and 5 = 0.5. A number of ways of studying the stability margin are investigated. Among them, changing the values of parameters κ and li is shown to be the most effective way to increase the stability margin. Finally, a guideline of stability margin Ms（ki, li, A） to a new discharge scenario showing whether plasmas can be stabilized is also presented in this paper.

Paleoseismological Study of the Late Quaternary Slip-rate along the South Barkol Basin Fault and Its Tectonic Implications,Eastern Tian Shan,Xinjiang

The easternmost Tian Shan lies in eastern Xinjiang, Central Asia. The South Barkol basin fault（SBF） in the northern part of the easternmost Tian Shan is a major tectonic structure in this orogenic region. The late Quaternary activity, paleoseismology, and deformation characteristics of the fault provide important clues for understanding the tectonic process of the eastern Tian Shan orogen and implementing seismic mitigation. Through interpretation of high-resolution satellite images, unmanned aerial vehicle measurements, and detailed geological and geomorphic investigations, we suggest that the fault exhibits clear left-lateral slip along its western segment. Paleoseismic trenches dug near Xiongkuer reveal evidence of six large paleoearthquakes. The four latest paleoearthquakes were dated： the oldest event occurred at 4663 BC–3839 BC. Data on the horizontal offsets along the probable 1842 Barkol earthquake coseismic rupture suggest clear multiple relationships between cumulative offsets and possible ~4 m of coseismic left-lateral slip per event. From the cumulative offsets and 14 C sample ages, we suggest an average Holocene left-lateral slip rate of 2.4–2.8 mm/a on the SBF, accounting for ~80% of lateral deformation within the entire eastern Tian Shan fault system. This result is comparable with the shortening rate of 2–4 mm/a in the whole eastern Tian Shan, indicating an equal role of strike-slip tectonics and compressional tectonics in this orogen, and that the SBF may accommodate substantial lateral tectonic deformation.

The Research of the Activity of the Piedmont Fault on the Tangshankou Segment of the Yuguang Basin Southern Marginal Fault

The Yuguang basin is a half-graben basin in the basin-range tectonic zone in northwest Beijing,located at the northern end of the Shanxi graben system,and the Yuguang basin southern marginal fault( YBSMF) controls the formation of this basin. A linear fault escarpment has formed in the proluvial fan on the piedmont fault zone of the Tangshankou segment of YBSMF. A trench across this escarpment reveals three paleo-earthquake events on two active faults. One fault ruptured at about 9 ka for the first time,and then faulted again at about 7. 3 ka,causing the formation and synchronous activity of another fault.Finally,they faulted for the third time,but we cannot determine the faulting time due to the lack of relevant surface deposition. The accumulative vertical displacement of these three events is about 8. 1 m. We estimate that the average recurrence period of the piedmont fault is about 1. 7 ka,and the average slip rate of the piedmont fault is about1. 6 mm/a. We also estimate the reference magnitude of each event according to the empirical formula.

Research on Sales Strategy Based on Supermarket Pipeline Data

“Low profit and high sales” is a strategy to increase sales volume by reducing the profit of unit goods, so that businesses can gain more profits. For flexible goods, price reduction can increase the total revenue, but when the goods are lack of flexibility, price reduction will reduce the total revenue. In this paper, according to the sales data provided by a supermarket, we preprocess the data, establish appropriate indicators to measure the daily discount strength of the mall, and establish a mathematical model between the discount strength, sales and profit margin. Through these models, we found that meager profits do bring up sales, but too low discounts can also hurt total profits. In addition, when shopping malls implement discount promotions, they will also bring some negative effects, and we give some suggestions for this.

基于衰减速率算法模型的压力容器裂纹缺陷剩余寿命与安全裕度

疲劳裂纹是引发压力容器安全失效的主要原因,然而传统压力容器安全评定方法未考虑裂纹缺陷安全衰减过程的时变性,因此对裂纹缺陷的安全裕度表征方式存在缺陷。为此,本文通过力学公式推导、裂纹实验仿真与裂纹疲劳扩展实验相结合的方式研究了压力容器表面裂纹缺陷在疲劳断裂过程中的深长尺寸扩展规律,探索了裂纹缺陷在疲劳载荷作用下的安全衰减过程,结合安全衰减路径理论的基本思想,利用裂纹缺陷在失效过程中沿安全衰减时变路径的变化趋势来定义裂纹缺陷的疲劳失效速率,通过建立安全衰减时变路径与安全衰减速率之间的瞬态数学关系式,得到了裂纹缺陷安全衰减速率表征模型,并据此构建了曲线积分形式的裂纹缺陷剩余寿命计算模型与安全裕度表征模型。实验结果表明,本文所提寿命预测模型计算结果与裂纹缺陷的实际剩余寿命十分接近。裂纹缺陷的剩余寿命维持在总寿命的50%以上时,所提方法的安全裕度下降速率较为缓慢;而当裂纹缺陷的剩余寿命处于总寿命的50%以下时,安全裕度的下降速率会迅速增加。这种安全裕度表征方式不仅与裂纹缺陷的疲劳扩展规律一致,而且比传统方法更加符合裂纹缺陷的实际安全衰减过程、更有利于安全检测人员对临近失效裂纹缺陷进行识别与检测。

Gravity evidence of underplating in the northeastern margin area of Qinghai-Tibet plateau

Based on leveling data in 1972 -2011 and relative-gravity data in 1993 -2011, we obtained a longterm vertical crustal-deformation rate of 1.62mm/a and a relative-gravity variation rate of 0.62 × 10^-8 ms^-2a^-1 for the northeastern margin area of Qinghai-Tibet plateau. After removing the contributions from the observed vertical movement and inferred surface denudation, we obtain a gravity-variation rate of 0.73 × 10^-8 ms^-2a^-1 attributable to the mass changes beneath the crust. This positive change suggests that the total mass under the observation stations was gradually increasing. We consider this result to be the gravitational evidence of underplating beneath the study area, and propose that the underplating was caused by collision betwen the Indian plate and Tibetan plateau and by gravitation-potential induced deviatoric stress.

基于倾向性评分匹配法的改良前列腺尖部分离技术联合腹腔镜前列腺癌根治术临床疗效观察

目的基于倾向性评分匹配法(PSM)分析改良的前列腺尖部分离技术联合腹腔镜前列腺癌根治术治疗前列腺癌的效果。方法选择2019年1月—2022年12月于安阳市第三人民医院泌尿外科行改良前列腺尖部分离技术联合腹腔镜前列腺癌根治术治疗的74例前列腺癌患者纳入联合组,另选取同期入院行腹腔镜前列腺癌根治术治疗的63例前列腺癌患者纳入对照组。经PSM匹配后,每组58例患者。比较匹配后两组患者的围术期指标、并发症发生率、术前及术后1个月控尿功能和性功能。结果匹配后两组各项基础资料的差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。相较于术前,两组术后1个月国际尿失禁问卷简表(ICIQ-SF)、国际勃起功能问卷量表(IIEF-5)评分均降低(P<0.05),扩展前列腺癌复合指数量表(EPIC-UIN)、国际前列腺症状(IPSS)评分升高(P<0.05);且联合组ICIQ-SF[(9.02±1.98)分vs.(11.38±2.04)分]、IPSS[(19.67±4.19)分vs.(21.68±4.23)分]评分低于对照组,EPIC-UIN[(70.49±6.82)分vs.(63.34±6.48)分]、IIEF-5[(18.17±1.73)分vs.(16.72±1.58)分]评分高于对照组(P<0.05)。相较于对照组,联合组导管留置时间[(7.38±1.97)d vs.(5.11±1.82)d]、住院时间[(13.18±2.23)d vs.(11.74±2.09)d]更短,并发症发生率(22.41%vs.6.90%)更低,尖端切缘阳性率(8.62%vs.20.69%)更高(P<0.05)。结论PSM法可平衡组间差异,前列腺癌采用改良前列腺尖部分离技术联合腹腔镜前列腺癌根治术治疗可改善控尿功能,对性功能的影响小,术后并发症少,但尖部肿瘤切缘阳性风险较高,需进一步改良术式,以达到最佳疗效。

小江断裂带巧家段晚第四纪走滑速率研究

鲜水河-小江左旋走滑断裂系是调节青藏高原东南部物质向东南挤出的大型边界断裂。云南巧家断裂作为小江断裂带北段,其晚第四纪走滑速率是认识川滇地块东部边界应变调节方式的关键。本文利用无人机航摄和地面激光扫描技术,获取了该断裂段穿过金沙江河谷区红路和蒙姑两处的高分辨率地形数据,恢复出断层错动T2和T3两期阶地陡坎上缘的左旋位错量分别为120±5~128±1 m和193±1~202±1 m。根据T3中次生碳酸盐的AMS-14C法测年结果,结合已有的类似阶地年龄数据,并经气候曲线校正后认为,区域上T2和T3被废弃应分别发生在冰后期和末次盛冰期末期,时间为8.5~11.2 ka BP和18.6~21.4 ka BP。据此估算,小江断裂带巧家段的晚第四纪平均走滑速率为10~13 mm/a。进一步统计分析小江断裂带的晚第四纪走滑速率,发现巧家至宜良以北的段落,总体保持着10~15 mm/a的高走滑速率。但从宜良向南,断裂走滑速率出现了分段递减的特征,至建水以南快速减小到中-北段的近十分之一。小江断裂带中-北段的高走滑速率以及向南的分段式递减现象,反映在宜良以北,小江断裂带的走滑剪切作用是调节川滇地块向东南旋转-挤出运动的主要方式,但向南伴随变形分解作用,调节方式转变为了伸展、旋转和逆冲等多种方式共存的复杂形式。因此,进一步精细化定量限定川滇地块东部边界断裂的应变分解作用,是深入认识青藏高原物质挤出方式及其机制的关键。

基于累积贡献率和可解释人工智能的静态电压稳定裕度估计特征量筛选方法

利用海量量测数据估计大规模互联电网静态电压稳定裕度时,合理地选择输入量测信号和裕度估计算法是实现高质量裕度估计的基础。提出了一种基于累积贡献率和可解释人工智能的关键特征量筛选方法。给出了基于沙普利值加性解释理论可解释模型的输入特征贡献值量化方法,并依据贡献值大小对特征降序排列;采用基于累积贡献率增量的循环优化过程剔除冗余特征,形成关键特征子集;在系统关键特征优选的基础上,采用轻量梯度提升机算法实现静态电压稳定裕度在线估计。所提方法在保证估计精度的同时,大幅降低初始样本维度,解决特征过拟合问题,有效提升静态电压稳定裕度估计在线性能。基于WECC 3机9节点系统、IEEE 10机39节点系统以及IEEE 300节点系统的仿真分析验证了所提关键特征量筛选方法在电力系统静态电压稳定裕度估计中的有效性。

在后牙区应用4 mm超短种植体临床效果的Meta分析

目的 通过系统评价及Meta分析的方法评估在后牙区骨量不足植入4 mm超短种植体(ESI)的安全性和效用。方法 电子检索2010年1月1日—2022年8月31日PubMed、Embase、Cochrane Library、Web of Science、CNKI、万方数据库有关ESI与标准种植体(SI)(≥8 mm)的随机对照试验或临床对照试验,并进行引文检索。应用RevMan 5.4版软件进行Meta分析。结果 共11篇研究符合纳入标准,其中随机对照试验6篇,临床对照试验5篇。Meta分析结果:在后牙区种植时,ESI与SI的存留率差异无统计学意义[RR=1.23,95%CI(0.66,2.27),P=0.52];ESI表现出更稳定的边缘骨水平[MD=-0.16,95%CI (-0.25,-0.07),P=0.000 7],更少的生物并发症[RR=0.34,95%CI (0.19,0.62),P=0.000 4],然而机械并发症更多[RR=2.89,95%CI (1.05,7.92),P=0.04]。结论 基于有限的证据,在后牙牙槽嵴高度低于5 mm时应用ESI可以获得媲美SI的临床效果,且具备技术敏感性低、术后生物并发症少等优势。由于ESI长期随访证据不足、样本量有限,仍需要更多临床试验评估ESI的长期效用。