Federated Learning Model for Auto Insurance Rate Setting Based on Tweedie Distribution

In the assessment of car insurance claims,the claim rate for car insurance presents a highly skewed probability distribution,which is typically modeled using Tweedie distribution.The traditional approach to obtaining the Tweedie regression model involves training on a centralized dataset,when the data is provided by multiple parties,training a privacy-preserving Tweedie regression model without exchanging raw data becomes a challenge.To address this issue,this study introduces a novel vertical federated learning-based Tweedie regression algorithm for multi-party auto insurance rate setting in data silos.The algorithm can keep sensitive data locally and uses privacy-preserving techniques to achieve intersection operations between the two parties holding the data.After determining which entities are shared,the participants train the model locally using the shared entity data to obtain the local generalized linear model intermediate parameters.The homomorphic encryption algorithms are introduced to interact with and update the model intermediate parameters to collaboratively complete the joint training of the car insurance rate-setting model.Performance tests on two publicly available datasets show that the proposed federated Tweedie regression algorithm can effectively generate Tweedie regression models that leverage the value of data fromboth partieswithout exchanging data.The assessment results of the scheme approach those of the Tweedie regressionmodel learned fromcentralized data,and outperformthe Tweedie regressionmodel learned independently by a single party.

Predicting the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property based on microscale rock mechanical experiments and accurate grain-based modeling

The exploration of Mars would heavily rely on Martian rocks mechanics and engineering technology.As the mechanical property of Martian rocks is uncertain,it is of utmost importance to predict the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property for the success of Mars exploration.In this paper,a fast and accurate probability distribution method for predicting the macroscale elastic modulus of Martian rocks was proposed by integrating the microscale rock mechanical experiments(micro-RME),accurate grain-based modeling(AGBM)and upscaling methods based on reliability principles.Firstly,the microstructure of NWA12564 Martian sample and elastic modulus of each mineral were obtained by micro-RME with TESCAN integrated mineral analyzer(TIMA)and nanoindentation.The best probability distribution function of the minerals was determined by Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S)test.Secondly,based on best distribution function of each mineral,the Monte Carlo simulations(MCS)and upscaling methods were implemented to obtain the probability distribution of upscaled elastic modulus.Thirdly,the correlation between the upscaled elastic modulus and macroscale elastic modulus obtained by AGBM was established.The accurate probability distribution of the macroscale elastic modulus was obtained by this correlation relationship.The proposed method can predict the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property with any size and shape samples.

Modeling load distribution for rural photovoltaic grid areas using image recognition

Expanding photovoltaic(PV)resources in rural-grid areas is an essential means to augment the share of solar energy in the energy landscape,aligning with the“carbon peaking and carbon neutrality”objectives.However,rural power grids often lack digitalization;thus,the load distribution within these areas is not fully known.This hinders the calculation of the available PV capacity and deduction of node voltages.This study proposes a load-distribution modeling approach based on remote-sensing image recognition in pursuit of a scientific framework for developing distributed PV resources in rural grid areas.First,houses in remote-sensing images are accurately recognized using deep-learning techniques based on the YOLOv5 model.The distribution of the houses is then used to estimate the load distribution in the grid area.Next,equally spaced and clustered distribution models are used to adaptively determine the location of the nodes and load power in the distribution lines.Finally,by calculating the connectivity matrix of the nodes,a minimum spanning tree is extracted,the topology of the network is constructed,and the node parameters of the load-distribution model are calculated.The proposed scheme is implemented in a software package and its efficacy is demonstrated by analyzing typical remote-sensing images of rural grid areas.The results underscore the ability of the proposed approach to effectively discern the distribution-line structure and compute the node parameters,thereby offering vital support for determining PV access capability.

Finer topographic data improves distribution modeling of Picea crassifolia in the northern Qilian Mountains

The Qilian Mountains, a national key ecological function zone in Western China, play a pivotal role in ecosystem services. However, the distribution of its dominant tree species, Picea crassifolia (Qinghai spruce), has decreased dramatically in the past decades due to climate change and human activity, which may have influenced its ecological functions. To restore its ecological functions, reasonable reforestation is the key measure. Many previous efforts have predicted the potential distribution of Picea crassifolia, which provides guidance on regional reforestation policy. However, all of them were performed at low spatial resolution, thus ignoring the natural characteristics of the patchy distribution of Picea crassifolia. Here, we modeled the distribution of Picea crassifolia with species distribution models at high spatial resolutions. For many models, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) is larger than 0.9, suggesting their excellent precision. The AUC of models at 30 m is higher than that of models at 90 m, and the current potential distribution of Picea crassifolia is more closely aligned with its actual distribution at 30 m, demonstrating that finer data resolution improves model performance. Besides, for models at 90 m resolution, annual precipitation (Bio12) played the paramount influence on the distribution of Picea crassifolia, while the aspect became the most important one at 30 m, indicating the crucial role of finer topographic data in modeling species with patchy distribution. The current distribution of Picea crassifolia was concentrated in the northern and central parts of the study area, and this pattern will be maintained under future scenarios, although some habitat loss in the central parts and gain in the eastern regions is expected owing to increasing temperatures and precipitation. Our findings can guide protective and restoration strategies for the Qilian Mountains, which would benefit regional ecological balance.

Application of a 2 Parameter Weibull Distribution in Modeling of State Holding Time in HIV/AIDS Transition Dynamics

This study investigates the application of the two-parameter Weibull distribution in modeling state holding times within HIV/AIDS progression dynamics. By comparing the performance of the Weibull-based Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model, Cox Proportional Hazards model, and Survival model, we assess the effectiveness of these models in capturing survival rates across varying gender, age groups, and treatment categories. Simulated data was used to fit the models, with model identification criteria (AIC, BIC, and R2) applied for evaluation. Results indicate that the AFT model is particularly sensitive to interaction terms, showing significant effects for older age groups (50 - 60 years) and treatment interaction, while the Cox model provides a more stable fit across all age groups. The Survival model displayed variability, with its performance diminishing when interaction terms were introduced, particularly in older age groups. Overall, while the AFT model captures the complexities of interactions in the data, the Cox model’s stability suggests it may be better suited for general analyses without strong interaction effects. The findings highlight the importance of model selection in survival analysis, especially in complex disease progression scenarios like HIV/AIDS.

Autonomous Vehicle Platoons In Urban Road Networks:A Joint Distributed Reinforcement Learning and Model Predictive Control Approach

In this paper, platoons of autonomous vehicles operating in urban road networks are considered. From a methodological point of view, the problem of interest consists of formally characterizing vehicle state trajectory tubes by means of routing decisions complying with traffic congestion criteria. To this end, a novel distributed control architecture is conceived by taking advantage of two methodologies: deep reinforcement learning and model predictive control. On one hand, the routing decisions are obtained by using a distributed reinforcement learning algorithm that exploits available traffic data at each road junction. On the other hand, a bank of model predictive controllers is in charge of computing the more adequate control action for each involved vehicle. Such tasks are here combined into a single framework:the deep reinforcement learning output(action) is translated into a set-point to be tracked by the model predictive controller;conversely, the current vehicle position, resulting from the application of the control move, is exploited by the deep reinforcement learning unit for improving its reliability. The main novelty of the proposed solution lies in its hybrid nature: on one hand it fully exploits deep reinforcement learning capabilities for decisionmaking purposes;on the other hand, time-varying hard constraints are always satisfied during the dynamical platoon evolution imposed by the computed routing decisions. To efficiently evaluate the performance of the proposed control architecture, a co-design procedure, involving the SUMO and MATLAB platforms, is implemented so that complex operating environments can be used, and the information coming from road maps(links,junctions, obstacles, semaphores, etc.) and vehicle state trajectories can be shared and exchanged. Finally by considering as operating scenario a real entire city block and a platoon of eleven vehicles described by double-integrator models, several simulations have been performed with the aim to put in light the main f eatures of the proposed approach. Moreover, it is important to underline that in different operating scenarios the proposed reinforcement learning scheme is capable of significantly reducing traffic congestion phenomena when compared with well-reputed competitors.

Probability Distribution Characteristics of Strong Nonlinear Waves Under Typhoon Conditions in the Northern South China Sea

The generation and propagation mechanism of strong nonlinear waves in the South China Sea is an essential research area. In this study, the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH Ⅲ is employed to simulate wave fields under extreme sea states. The model, integrating the ST6 source term, is validated against observed data, demonstrating its credibility. The spatial distribution of the occurrence probability of strong nonlinear waves during typhoons is shown, and the waves in the straits and the northeastern part of the South China Sea show strong nonlinear characteristics. The high-order spectral model HOS-ocean is employed to simulate the random wave surface series beneath five different platform areas. The waves during the typhoon exhibit strong nonlinear characteristics, and freak waves exist. The space-varying probability model is established to describe the short-term probability distribution of nonlinear wave series. The exceedance probability distributions of the wave surface beneath different platform areas are compared and analyzed. The results show that with an increase in the platform area, the probability of a strong nonlinear wave beneath the platform increases.

Data-driven Wasserstein distributionally robust chance-constrained optimization for crude oil scheduling under uncertainty

Crude oil scheduling optimization is an effective method to enhance the economic benefits of oil refining.But uncertainties,including uncertain demands of crude distillation units(CDUs),might make the production plans made by the traditional deterministic optimization models infeasible.A data-driven Wasserstein distributionally robust chance-constrained(WDRCC)optimization approach is proposed in this paper to deal with demand uncertainty in crude oil scheduling.First,a new deterministic crude oil scheduling optimization model is developed as the basis of this approach.The Wasserstein distance is then used to build ambiguity sets from historical data to describe the possible realizations of probability distributions of uncertain demands.A cross-validation method is advanced to choose suitable radii for these ambiguity sets.The deterministic model is reformulated as a WDRCC optimization model for crude oil scheduling to guarantee the demand constraints hold with a desired high probability even in the worst situation in ambiguity sets.The proposed WDRCC model is transferred into an equivalent conditional value-at-risk representation and further derived as a mixed-integer nonlinear programming counterpart.Industrial case studies from a real-world refinery are conducted to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.Out-of-sample tests demonstrate that the solution of the WDRCC model is more robust than those of the deterministic model and the chance-constrained model.

Slip distribution inversion of seismic sub-fault dip iteration using gradient based optimizer algorithm

This paper considers setting different dips for different sub-faults to fit the actual rupture situation based on the fault rupture of the 2013 Lushan M_(S)7.0 earthquake.Meanwhile,combined with the coseismic GNSS data of the Lushan earthquake,the source parameters and sliding distribution of the Lushan earthquake fault are inversed.Firstly,we use the gradient based optimizer(GBO)in nonlinear inversion to obtain the source parameters of this seismic fault.The inversion results indicate that the strike of the fault is 206.52°,the dip is 44.10°,the length is 21.92 km,and the depth is 12.79 km.To refine the sliding distribution of the seismic fault,the seismic fault is divided into 3×3 sub-faults.Then,we fix the central sub-fault dip of 44.10°;the dip of other sub-faults is obtained by iteration.After that,the model is further divided into a fault layer model composed of 23×19 sub fault slices,and using the Matlab fitting function is used to fit the dip of the 23×19 sub faults.Finally,the Lushan seismic fault plane is established as a shovel structure with steep upper and gentle lower,steep south and gentle north.The slip distribution inversion results indicate that the depth of the slip peak is 13 km,the corresponding maximum slip momentum is 0.67 m,the seismic moment is 1.10×10^(19)N·m and the corresponding moment magnitude is MW6.66.The results above are consistent with the research results of seismology.

A possible probe to neutron-skin thickness by fragment parallel momentum distribution in projectile fragmentation reactions

Neutron-skin thickness is a key parameter for a neutron-rich nucleus;however,it is difficult to determine.In the framework of the Lanzhou Quantum Molecular Dynamics(LQMD)model,a possible probe for the neutron-skin thickness(δ_(np))of neutron-rich ^(48)Ca was studied in the 140A MeV ^(48)Ca+^(9)Be projectile fragmentation reaction based on the parallel momentum distribution(p∥)of the residual fragments.A Fermi-type density distribution was employed to initiate the neutron density distributions in the LQMD simulations.A combined Gaussian function with different width parameters for the left side(Γ_(L))and the right side(Γ_(R))in the distribution was used to describe the p∥of the residual fragments.Taking neutron-rich sulfur isotopes as examples,Γ_(L) shows a sensitive correlation withδ_(np) of ^(48)Ca,and is proposed as a probe for determining the neutron skin thickness of the projectile nucleus.

Photoelectron momentum distributions of triatomic CO_(2)molecules by circularly polarized attosecond pulses

Molecular-frame photoelectron momentum distributions(MF-PMDs)have been studied for imaging molecular structures.We investigate the MF-PMDs of CO_(2)molecules exposed to circularly polarized(CP)attosecond laser pulses bysolving the time-dependent Schrodinger equations based on the single-active-electron approximation frames.Results showthat high-frequency photons lead to photoelectron diffraction patterns,indicating molecular orbitals.These diffractionpatterns can be illustrated by the ultrafast photoionization models.However,for the driving pulses with 30 nm,a deviationbetween MF-PMDs and theoretically predicted results of the ultrafast photoionization models is produced because theCoulomb effect strongly influences the molecular photoionization.Meanwhile,the MF-PMDs rotate in the same directionas the helicity of driving laser pulses.Our results also demonstrate that the MF-PMDs in a CP laser pulse are the superpositionof those in the parallel and perpendicular linearly polarized cases.The simulations efficiently visualize molecularorbital geometries and structures by ultrafast photoelectron imaging.Furthermore,we determine the contribution of HOMOand HOMO-1 orbitals to ionization by varying the relative phase and the ratio of these two orbitals.

Analysis of Snow Distribution and Displacement in the Bogie Region of a High-Speed Train

Snow interacting with a high-speed train can cause the formation of ice in the train bogie region and affect its safety.In this study,a wind-snow multiphase numerical approach is introduced for high-speed train bogies on the basis of the Euler-Lagrange discrete phase model.A particle-wall impact criterion is implemented to account for the presence of snow particles on the surface.Subsequently,numerical simulations are conducted,considering various snow particle diameter distributions and densities.The research results indicate that when the particle diameter is relatively small,the distribution of snow particles in the bogie cavity is relatively uniform.However,as the particle diameter increases,the snow particles in the bogie cavity are mainly located in the rear wheel pairs of the bogie.When the more realistic Rosin-Rammler diameter distribution is applied to snow particles,the positions of snow particles with different diameters vary in the bogie cavity.More precisely,smaller diameter particles are primarily located in the front and upper parts of the bogie cavity,while larger diameter snow particles accumulate at the rear and in the lower parts of the bogie cavity.

Potential global distribution of the guava root-knot nematode Meloidogyne enterolobii under different climate change scenarios using MaxEnt ecological niche modeling

In recent years,Meloidogyne enterolobii has emerged as a major parasitic nematode infesting many plants in tropical or subtropical areas.However,the regions of potential distribution and the main contributing environmental variables for this nematode are unclear.Under the current climate scenario,we predicted the potential geographic distributions of M.enterolobii worldwide and in China using a Maximum Entropy(MaxEnt)model with the occurrence data of this species.Furthermore,the potential distributions of M.enterolobii were projected under three future climate scenarios(BCC-CSM2-MR,CanESM5 and CNRM-CM6-1)for the periods 2050s and 2090s.Changes in the potential distribution were also predicted under different climate conditions.The results showed that highly suitable regions for M.enterolobii were concentrated in Africa,South America,Asia,and North America between latitudes 30°S to 30°N.Bio16(precipitation of the wettest quarter),bio10(mean temperature of the warmest quarter),and bio11(mean temperature of the coldest quarter)were the variables contributing most in predicting potential distributions of M.enterolobii.In addition,the potential suitable areas for M.enterolobii will shift toward higher latitudes under future climate scenarios.This study provides a theoretical basis for controlling and managing this nematode.

Control of the Dust Vertical Distribution over Western Africa by Convection and Scavenging

Saharan dust represents more than 50%of the total desert dust emitted around the globe and its radiative effect significantly affects the atmospheric circulation at a continental scale.Previous studies on dust vertical distribution and the Saharan Air Layer(SAL)showed some shortcomings that could be attributed to imperfect representation of the effects of deep convection and scavenging.The authors investigate here the role of deep convective transport and scavenging on the vertical distribution of mineral dust over Western Africa.Using multi-year(2006-2010)simulations performed with the variable-resolution(zoomed)version of the LMDZ climate model.Simulations are compared with aerosol amounts recorded by the Aerosol Robotic Network(AERONET)and with vertical profiles of the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization(CALIOP)measurements.LMDZ allows a thorough examination of the respective roles of deep convective transport,convective and stratiform scavenging,boundary layer transport,and advection processes on the vertical mineral dust distribution over Western Africa.The comparison of simulated dust Aerosol Optical Depth(AOD)and distribution with measurements suggest that scavenging in deep convection and subsequent re-evaporation of dusty rainfall in the lower troposphere are critical processes for explaining the vertical distribution of desert dust.These processes play a key role in maintaining a well-defined dust layer with a sharp transition at the top of the SAL and in establishing the seasonal cycle of dust distribution.This vertical distribution is further reshaped offshore in the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ)over the Atlantic Ocean by marine boundary layer turbulent and convective transport and wet deposition at the surface.

Numerical Analysis on Temperature Distribution in a Single Cell of PEFC Operated at Higher Temperature by1D Heat Transfer Model and 3D Multi-Physics Simulation Model

This study is to understand the impact of operating conditions, especially initial operation temperature (Tini) which is set in a high temperature range, on the temperature profile of the interface between the polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) and the catalyst layer at the cathode (i.e., the reaction surface) in a single cell of polymer electrolyte fuel cell (PEFC). A 1D multi-plate heat transfer model based on the temperature data of the separator measured using the thermograph in a power generation experiment was developed to evaluate the reaction surface temperature (Treact). In addition, to validate the proposed heat transfer model, Treact obtained from the model was compared with that from the 3D numerical simulation using CFD software COMSOL Multiphysics which solves the continuity equation, Brinkman equation, Maxwell-Stefan equation, Butler-Volmer equation as well as heat transfer equation. As a result, the temperature gap between the results obtained by 1D heat transfer model and those obtained by 3D numerical simulation is below approximately 0.5 K. The simulation results show the change in the molar concentration of O2 and H2O from the inlet to the outlet is more even with the increase in Tini due to the lower performance of O2 reduction reaction. The change in the current density from the inlet to the outlet is more even with the increase in Tini and the value of current density is smaller with the increase in Tini due to the increase in ohmic over-potential and concentration over-potential. It is revealed that the change in Treact from the inlet to the outlet is more even with the increase in Tini irrespective of heat transfer model. This is because the generated heat from the power generation is lower with the increase in Tini due to the lower performance of O2 reduction reaction.

Modelling the nesting-habitat of threatened vulture species in the caucasus:An ecosystem approach to formalising environmental factors in species distribution models

Abiotic factors play an important role in species localisation,but biotic and anthropogenic predictors must also be considered in distribution modelling for models to be biologically meaningful.In this study,we formalised the biotic predictors of nesting sites for four threatened Caucasian vultures by including species distribution models(wild ungulates,nesting tree species)as biotic layers in the vulture Maxent models.Maxent was applied in the R dismo package and the best set of the model parameters were defined in the R ENMeval package.Performance metrics were continuous Boyce index,Akaike's information criterion,the area under receiver operating curve and true skill statistics.We also calculated and evaluated the null models.Kernel density estimation method was applied to assess the overlap of vulture ecological niches in the environmental space.The accessibility of anthropogenic food resources was estimated using the Path Distance measure that considers elevation gradient.The availability of pine forests(Scots Pine)and wild ungulates(Alpine Chamois and Caucasian Goat)contributed the most(29.6%and 34.3%)to Cinereous Vulture(Aegypius monachus)nesting site model.Wild ungulate distribution also contributed significantly(about 46%)to the Bearded Vulture(Gypaetus barbatus)model.This scavenger nests in the highlands of the Caucasus at a minimum distance of 5–10 km from anthropogenic facilities.In contrast,livestock as a food source was most important in colony distribution of Griffon Vulture(Gyps fulvus).The contribution of distances to settlements and agricultural facilities to the model was 45%.The optimal distance from Egyptian Vulture(Neophron percnopterus)nesting sites to settlements was only 3–10 km,to livestock facilities no more than 15 km with the factor contribution of about 57%.Excluding the wild ungulate availability,the ecological niches of studied vultures overlapped significantly.Despite similar foraging and nesting requirements,Caucasian vultures are not pronounced nesting and trophic competitors due to the abundance of nesting sites,anthropogenic food sources and successful niche sharing.

Stiffness and Shear Stress Distribution of Glulam Beams in Elastic-Plastic Stage:Theory,Experiments and Numerical Modelling

Traditional methods focus on the ultimate bending moment of glulam beams and the fracture failure of materials with defects,which usually depends on empirical parameters.There is no systematic theoretical method to predict the stiffness and shear distribution of glulam beams in elastic-plastic stage,and consequently,the failure of such glulam beams cannot be predicted effectively.To address these issues,an analytical method considering material nonlinearity was proposed for glulam beams,and the calculating equations of deflection and shear stress distribution for different failure modes were established.The proposed method was verified by experiments and numerical models under the corresponding conditions.Results showed that the theoretical calculations were in good agreement with experimental and numerical results,indicating that the equations proposed in this paper were reliable and accurate for such glulam beams with wood material in the elastic-plastic stage ignoring the influence of mechanic properties in radial and tangential directions of wood.Furthermore,the experimental results reported by the previous studies indicated that the method was applicable and could be used as a theoretical reference for predicting the failure of glulam beams.

Micro sliding friction model considering periodic variation stress distribution of contact surface and experimental verification

Micro sliding phenomenon widely exists in the operation process of mechanical systems,and the micro sliding friction mechanism is always a research hotspot.In this work,based on the total reflection method,a measuring device for interface contact behavior under two-dimensional(2D)vibration is built.The stress distribution is characterized by the light intensity distribution of the contact image,and the interface contact behavior in the 2D vibration process is studied.It is found that the vibration angle of the normal direction of the contact surface and its fluctuation affect the interface friction coefficient,the tangential stiffness,and the fluctuation amplitude of the stress distribution.Then they will affect the change of friction state and energy dissipation in the process of micro sliding.Further,an improved micro sliding friction model is proposed based on the experimental analysis,with the nonlinear change of contact parameters caused by the normal contact stress distribution fluctuation taken into account.This model considers the interface tangential stiffness fluctuation,friction coefficient hysteresis,and stress distribution fluctuation,whose simulation results are consistent well with the experimental results.It is found that considering the nonlinear effect of a certain contact parameter alone may bring a greater error to the prediction of friction behavior.Only by integrating multiple contact parameters can the accuracy of friction prediction is improved.

Analytical model of non-uniform charge distribution within the gated region of GaN HEMTs

A physics-based analytical expression that predicts the charge,electrical field and potential distributions along the gated region of the GaN HEMT channel has been developed.Unlike the gradual channel approximation(GCA),the proposed model considers the non-uniform variation of the concentration under the gated region as a function of terminal applied volt-ages.In addition,the model can capture the influence of mobility and channel temperature on the charge distribution trend.The comparison with the hydrodynamic(HD)numerical simulation showed a high agreement of the proposed model with numerical data for different bias conditions considering the self-heating and quantization of the electron concentration.The ana-lytical nature of the model allows us to reduce the computational and time cost of the simulation.Also,it can be used as a core expression to develop a complete physics-based transistorⅣmodel without GCA limitation.

Common Species Distribution Models in Biodiversity Analysis and Their Challenges and Prospects in Application

Species distribution models have been widely used to explore suitable habitats of species,the impact of climate change on the distribution of suitable habitats of species,and the construction of ecological reserves.This paper introduced species distribution models commonly used in biodiversity analysis,as well as model performance evaluation indexes,challenges in the application of species distribution models,and finally prospected the development trend of research on species distribution models.