Modeling urban redevelopment:A novel approach using time-series remote sensing data and machine learning

Accurate mapping and timely monitoring of urban redevelopment are pivotal for urban studies and decisionmakers to foster sustainable urban development.Traditional mapping methods heavily depend on field surveys and subjective questionnaires,yielding less objective,reliable,and timely data.Recent advancements in Geographic Information Systems(GIS)and remote-sensing technologies have improved the identification and mapping of urban redevelopment through quantitative analysis using satellite-based observations.Nonetheless,challenges persist,particularly concerning accuracy and significant temporal delays.This study introduces a novel approach to modeling urban redevelopment,leveraging machine learning algorithms and remote-sensing data.This methodology can facilitate the accurate and timely identification of urban redevelopment activities.The study’s machine learning model can analyze time-series remote-sensing data to identify spatio-temporal and spectral patterns related to urban redevelopment.The model is thoroughly evaluated,and the results indicate that it can accurately capture the time-series patterns of urban redevelopment.This research’s findings are useful for evaluating urban demographic and economic changes,informing policymaking and urban planning,and contributing to sustainable urban development.The model can also serve as a foundation for future research on early-stage urban redevelopment detection and evaluation of the causes and impacts of urban redevelopment.

Hierarchical multihead self-attention for time-series-based fault diagnosis

Fault diagnosis is important for maintaining the safety and effectiveness of chemical process.Considering the multivariate,nonlinear,and dynamic characteristic of chemical process,many time-series-based data-driven fault diagnosis methods have been developed in recent years.However,the existing methods have the problem of long-term dependency and are difficult to train due to the sequential way of training.To overcome these problems,a novel fault diagnosis method based on time-series and the hierarchical multihead self-attention(HMSAN)is proposed for chemical process.First,a sliding window strategy is adopted to construct the normalized time-series dataset.Second,the HMSAN is developed to extract the time-relevant features from the time-series process data.It improves the basic self-attention model in both width and depth.With the multihead structure,the HMSAN can pay attention to different aspects of the complicated chemical process and obtain the global dynamic features.However,the multiple heads in parallel lead to redundant information,which cannot improve the diagnosis performance.With the hierarchical structure,the redundant information is reduced and the deep local time-related features are further extracted.Besides,a novel many-to-one training strategy is introduced for HMSAN to simplify the training procedure and capture the long-term dependency.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by two chemical cases.The experimental results show that the proposed method achieves a great performance on time-series industrial data and outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches.

Missing Value Imputation for Radar-Derived Time-Series Tracks of Aerial Targets Based on Improved Self-Attention-Based Network

The frequent missing values in radar-derived time-series tracks of aerial targets(RTT-AT)lead to significant challenges in subsequent data-driven tasks.However,the majority of imputation research focuses on random missing(RM)that differs significantly from common missing patterns of RTT-AT.The method for solving the RM may experience performance degradation or failure when applied to RTT-AT imputation.Conventional autoregressive deep learning methods are prone to error accumulation and long-term dependency loss.In this paper,a non-autoregressive imputation model that addresses the issue of missing value imputation for two common missing patterns in RTT-AT is proposed.Our model consists of two probabilistic sparse diagonal masking self-attention(PSDMSA)units and a weight fusion unit.It learns missing values by combining the representations outputted by the two units,aiming to minimize the difference between the missing values and their actual values.The PSDMSA units effectively capture temporal dependencies and attribute correlations between time steps,improving imputation quality.The weight fusion unit automatically updates the weights of the output representations from the two units to obtain a more accurate final representation.The experimental results indicate that,despite varying missing rates in the two missing patterns,our model consistently outperforms other methods in imputation performance and exhibits a low frequency of deviations in estimates for specific missing entries.Compared to the state-of-the-art autoregressive deep learning imputation model Bidirectional Recurrent Imputation for Time Series(BRITS),our proposed model reduces mean absolute error(MAE)by 31%~50%.Additionally,the model attains a training speed that is 4 to 8 times faster when compared to both BRITS and a standard Transformer model when trained on the same dataset.Finally,the findings from the ablation experiments demonstrate that the PSDMSA,the weight fusion unit,cascade network design,and imputation loss enhance imputation performance and confirm the efficacy of our design.

Deep Reinforcement Learning-Based Task Offloading and Service Migrating Policies in Service Caching-Assisted Mobile Edge Computing

Emerging mobile edge computing(MEC)is considered a feasible solution for offloading the computation-intensive request tasks generated from mobile wireless equipment(MWE)with limited computational resources and energy.Due to the homogeneity of request tasks from one MWE during a longterm time period,it is vital to predeploy the particular service cachings required by the request tasks at the MEC server.In this paper,we model a service caching-assisted MEC framework that takes into account the constraint on the number of service cachings hosted by each edge server and the migration of request tasks from the current edge server to another edge server with service caching required by tasks.Furthermore,we propose a multiagent deep reinforcement learning-based computation offloading and task migrating decision-making scheme(MBOMS)to minimize the long-term average weighted cost.The proposed MBOMS can learn the near-optimal offloading and migrating decision-making policy by centralized training and decentralized execution.Systematic and comprehensive simulation results reveal that our proposed MBOMS can converge well after training and outperforms the other five baseline algorithms.

Detection of Real-Time Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) Attacks on Internet of Things (IoT) Networks Using Machine Learning Algorithms

The primary concern of modern technology is cyber attacks targeting the Internet of Things.As it is one of the most widely used networks today and vulnerable to attacks.Real-time threats pose with modern cyber attacks that pose a great danger to the Internet of Things(IoT)networks,as devices can be monitored or service isolated from them and affect users in one way or another.Securing Internet of Things networks is an important matter,as it requires the use of modern technologies and methods,and real and up-to-date data to design and train systems to keep pace with the modernity that attackers use to confront these attacks.One of the most common types of attacks against IoT devices is Distributed Denial-of-Service(DDoS)attacks.Our paper makes a unique contribution that differs from existing studies,in that we use recent data that contains real traffic and real attacks on IoT networks.And a hybrid method for selecting relevant features,And also how to choose highly efficient algorithms.What gives the model a high ability to detect distributed denial-of-service attacks.the model proposed is based on a two-stage process:selecting essential features and constructing a detection model using the K-neighbors algorithm with two classifier algorithms logistic regression and Stochastic Gradient Descent classifier(SGD),combining these classifiers through ensemble machine learning(stacking),and optimizing parameters through Grid Search-CV to enhance system accuracy.Experiments were conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed model using the CIC-IoT2023 and CIC-DDoS2019 datasets.Performance evaluation demonstrated the potential of our model in robust intrusion detection in IoT networks,achieving an accuracy of 99.965%and a detection time of 0.20 s for the CIC-IoT2023 dataset,and 99.968%accuracy with a detection time of 0.23 s for the CIC-DDoS 2019 dataset.Furthermore,a comparative analysis with recent related works highlighted the superiority of our methodology in intrusion detection,showing improvements in accuracy,recall,and detection time.

Assessment of International GNSS Service Global Ionosphere Map products over China region based on measurements from the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China

The global ionosphere maps(GIM)provided by the International GNSS Service(IGS)are extensively utilized for ionospheric morphology monitoring,scientific research,and practical application.Assessing the credibility of GIM products in data-sparse regions is of paramount importance.In this study,measurements from the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China(CMONOC)are leveraged to evaluate the suitability of IGS-GIM products over China region in 2013-2014.The indices of mean error(ME),root mean square error(RMSE),and normalized RMSE(NRMSE)are then utilized to quantify the accuracy of IGS-GIM products.Results revealed distinct local time and latitudinal dependencies in IGS-GIM errors,with substantially high errors at nighttime(NRMSE:39%)and above 40°latitude(NRMSE:49%).Seasonal differences also emerged,with larger equinoctial deviations(NRMSE:33.5%)compared with summer(20%).A preliminary analysis implied that the irregular assimilation of sparse IGS observations,compounded by China’s distinct geomagnetic topology,may manifest as error variations.These results suggest that modeling based solely on IGS-GIM observations engenders inadequate representations across China and that a thorough examination would proffer the necessary foundation for advancing regional total electron content(TEC)constructions.

Healthcare Services Interoperability in Kenya: Challenges and Opportunities

In an attempt to assess the Kenyan healthcare system, this study looks at the current efforts that are already in place, what challenges they face, and what strategies can be put into practice to foster interoperability. By reviewing a variety of literature and using statistics, the paper ascertains notable impediments such as the absence of standard protocols, lack of adequate technological infrastructure, and weak regulatory frameworks. Resultant effects from these challenges regarding health provision target enhanced data sharing and merging for better patient outcomes and allocation of resources. It also highlights several opportunities that include the adoption of emerging technologies, and the establishment of public-private partnerships to strengthen the healthcare framework among others. In this regard, the article provides recommendations based on stakeholder views and global best practices addressed to policymakers, medical practitioners, and IT specialists concerned with achieving effective interoperability within Kenya’s health system. This research is relevant because it adds knowledge to the existing literature on how healthcare quality can be improved to make it more patient-centered especially in Kenya.

Exact Tail Asymptotics for a Queueing System with a Retrial Orbit and Batch Service

This paper discusses a queueing system with a retrial orbit and batch service, in which the quantity of customers’ rooms in the queue is finite and the space of retrial orbit is infinite. When the server starts serving, it serves all customers in the queue in a single batch, which is the so-called batch service. If a new customer or a retrial customer finds all the customers’ rooms are occupied, he will decide whether or not to join the retrial orbit. By using the censoring technique and the matrix analysis method, we first obtain the decay function of the stationary distribution for the quantity of customers in the retrial orbit and the quantity of customers in the queue. Then based on the form of decay rate function and the Karamata Tauberian theorem, we finally get the exact tail asymptotics of the stationary distribution.

Spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem services and their trade-offs and synergies against the background of the gully control and land consolidation project on the Loess Plateau,China

Studying the spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem services and their interrelationships on the Loess Plateau against the background of the gully control and land consolidation(GCLC)project has significant implications for ecological protection and quality development of the Yellow River Basin.Therefore,in this study,we took Yan'an City,Shaanxi Province of China,as the study area,selected four typical ecosystem services,including soil conservation service,water yield service,carbon storage service,and habitat quality service,and quantitatively evaluated the spatiotemporal variation characteristics and trade-offs and synergies of ecosystem services from 2010 to 2018 using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST)model.We also analysed the relationship between the GCLC project and regional ecosystem service changes in various regions(including 1 city,2 districts,and 10 counties)of Yan'an City and proposed a coordinated development strategy between the GCLC project and the ecological environment.The results showed that,from 2010 to 2018,soil conservation service decreased by 7.76%,while the other three ecosystem services changed relatively little,with water yield service increasing by 0.56% and carbon storage service and habitat quality service decreasing by 0.16% and 0.14%,respectively.The ecological environment of Yan'an City developed in a balanced way between 2010 and 2018,and the four ecosystem services showed synergistic relationships,among which the synergistic relationships between soil conservation service and water yield service and between carbon storage service and habitat quality service were significant.The GCLC project had a negative impact on the ecosystem services of Yan'an City,and the impact on carbon storage service was more significant.This study provides a theoretical basis for the scientific evaluation of the ecological benefits of the GCLC project and the realization of a win-win situation between food security and ecological security.

Exploring the Spatiotemporal Changes and Driving Forces of Ecosystem Services of Zhejiang Coasts,China,Under Sustainable Development Goals

Ecosystem services(ESs)refer to the continuous provisioning of ecosystem goods and services that benefit human beings.Over recent decades,rapid urbanization has exerted significant pressure on coastal ecosystems,resulting in biodiversity and habitat loss,environmental pollution,and the depletion of natural resources.In response to these environmental challenges,the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)were proposed.Given the pressing need to address these issues,understanding the changes in ESs under the SDGs is crucial for formulating specific ecological strategies.In this study,we first analyzed land use and cover change in the Zhejiang coasts of China during 2000–2020.Then,we investigated the spatiotemporal configuration of ESs by integrating carbon storage(CS),soil retention(SR),habitat quality(HQ)and water yield(WY)using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model.The driving mechanisms of ESs,which varied by space and time,were also explored using the Geo-detector method.The results revealed that,over the past two decades:1)the Zhejiang coasts have experienced a significant increase of 2783.72 km^(2) in built-up land areas and a continuous decrease in farmland areas due to rapid urbanization;2)owing to higher precipitation,extensive vegetation cover,and reduced anthropogenic disturbances,forests emerge as a crucial land use type for maintaining ecosystem services such as HQ,CS,WY,and SR;3)ESs have generally declined across the entire Zhejiang coasts,with a significant decrease observed in the northern areas and an increase in the southern areas spatially;4)the expansion of built-up land areas emerged as the primary factor affecting ecosystem services,while the vegetation factor has been increasingly significant and is expected to become predominant in the near future.Our study provides insights of understanding of ecosystem service theory and emphasizing the importance of preserving biodiversity for long-term sustainable development,and valuable scientific references to support the ecological management decision-making for local governments.

Cloud Datacenter Selection Using Service Broker Policies:A Survey

Amid the landscape of Cloud Computing(CC),the Cloud Datacenter(DC)stands as a conglomerate of physical servers,whose performance can be hindered by bottlenecks within the realm of proliferating CC services.A linchpin in CC’s performance,the Cloud Service Broker(CSB),orchestrates DC selection.Failure to adroitly route user requests with suitable DCs transforms the CSB into a bottleneck,endangering service quality.To tackle this,deploying an efficient CSB policy becomes imperative,optimizing DC selection to meet stringent Qualityof-Service(QoS)demands.Amidst numerous CSB policies,their implementation grapples with challenges like costs and availability.This article undertakes a holistic review of diverse CSB policies,concurrently surveying the predicaments confronted by current policies.The foremost objective is to pinpoint research gaps and remedies to invigorate future policy development.Additionally,it extensively clarifies various DC selection methodologies employed in CC,enriching practitioners and researchers alike.Employing synthetic analysis,the article systematically assesses and compares myriad DC selection techniques.These analytical insights equip decision-makers with a pragmatic framework to discern the apt technique for their needs.In summation,this discourse resoundingly underscores the paramount importance of adept CSB policies in DC selection,highlighting the imperative role of efficient CSB policies in optimizing CC performance.By emphasizing the significance of these policies and their modeling implications,the article contributes to both the general modeling discourse and its practical applications in the CC domain.

Growing Market Demand for After-Sales Service Management

With the background of the current economic globalization and informatization,how to improve the quality of after-sales services and meet the diversified needs of consumers has become an important issue that the industry has had to face and solve.Recently,the“report on 2022-2028 after-sales service management industry market competition analysis and development strategic planning assessment forecast”(hereinafter referred to as the“Report”)released by CICC Consulting pointed out that the high penetration rate of electronic information products.

Regional Digital Financial Services Security Clinic for Asia Pacific Region

April 24-25, Seoul, Republic of Korea The International Telecommunication Union(ITU) is organizing the Regional Digital Financial Services Security Clinic for Asia Pacific Region on April 24-25, 2024 in Seoul, Republic of Korea. The event is being jointly held with FNSV Korea and the Korean Fintech Center.

A Hybrid Machine Learning Approach for Improvised QoE in Video Services over 5G Wireless Networks

Video streaming applications have grown considerably in recent years.As a result,this becomes one of the most significant contributors to global internet traffic.According to recent studies,the telecommunications industry loses millions of dollars due to poor video Quality of Experience(QoE)for users.Among the standard proposals for standardizing the quality of video streaming over internet service providers(ISPs)is the Mean Opinion Score(MOS).However,the accurate finding of QoE by MOS is subjective and laborious,and it varies depending on the user.A fully automated data analytics framework is required to reduce the inter-operator variability characteristic in QoE assessment.This work addresses this concern by suggesting a novel hybrid XGBStackQoE analytical model using a two-level layering technique.Level one combines multiple Machine Learning(ML)models via a layer one Hybrid XGBStackQoE-model.Individual ML models at level one are trained using the entire training data set.The level two Hybrid XGBStackQoE-Model is fitted using the outputs(meta-features)of the layer one ML models.The proposed model outperformed the conventional models,with an accuracy improvement of 4 to 5 percent,which is still higher than the current traditional models.The proposed framework could significantly improve video QoE accuracy.

Mapping Climate Services for Disaster Risk Management: A Systematic Review and Research Gaps from a Policy Process Perspective

Climate services (CS) are crucial for mitigating and managing the impacts and risks associated with climate-induced disasters. While evidence over the past decade underscores their effectiveness across various domains, particularly agriculture, to maximize their potential, it is crucial to identify emerging priority areas and existing research gaps for future research agendas. As a contribution to this effort, this paper employs the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology to review the state-of-the-art in the field of climate services for disaster risk management. A comprehensive search across five literature databases combined with a snowball search method using ResearchRabbit was conducted and yielded 242 peer-reviewed articles, book sections, and reports over 2013-2023 after the screening process. The analysis revealed flood, drought, and food insecurity as major climate-related disasters addressed in the reviewed literature. Major climate services addressed included early warning systems, (sub)seasonal forecasts and impact-based warnings. Grounded in the policy processes’ theoretical perspective, the main focus identified and discussed three prevailing policy-oriented priority areas: 1) development of climate services, 2) use-adoption-uptake, and 3) evaluation of climate services. In response to the limitations of the prevalent supply-driven and top-down approach to climate services promotion, co-production emerges as a cross-cutting critical aspect of the identified priority areas. Despite the extensive research in the field, more attention is needed, particularly pronounced in the science-policy interface perspective, which in practice bridges scientific knowledge and policy decisions for effective policy processes. This perspective offers a valuable analytical lens as an entry point for further investigation. Hence, future research agendas would generate insightful evidence by scrutinizing this critical aspect given its importance to institutions and climate services capacity, to better understand intricate facets of the development and the integration of climate services into disaster risk management.

Privacy-Preserving Healthcare and Medical Data Collaboration Service System Based on Blockchain and Federated Learning

As the volume of healthcare and medical data increases from diverse sources,real-world scenarios involving data sharing and collaboration have certain challenges,including the risk of privacy leakage,difficulty in data fusion,low reliability of data storage,low effectiveness of data sharing,etc.To guarantee the service quality of data collaboration,this paper presents a privacy-preserving Healthcare and Medical Data Collaboration Service System combining Blockchain with Federated Learning,termed FL-HMChain.This system is composed of three layers:Data extraction and storage,data management,and data application.Focusing on healthcare and medical data,a healthcare and medical blockchain is constructed to realize data storage,transfer,processing,and access with security,real-time,reliability,and integrity.An improved master node selection consensus mechanism is presented to detect and prevent dishonest behavior,ensuring the overall reliability and trustworthiness of the collaborative model training process.Furthermore,healthcare and medical data collaboration services in real-world scenarios have been discussed and developed.To further validate the performance of FL-HMChain,a Convolutional Neural Network-based Federated Learning(FL-CNN-HMChain)model is investigated for medical image identification.This model achieves better performance compared to the baseline Convolutional Neural Network(CNN),having an average improvement of 4.7%on Area Under Curve(AUC)and 7%on Accuracy(ACC),respectively.Furthermore,the probability of privacy leakage can be effectively reduced by the blockchain-based parameter transfer mechanism in federated learning between local and global models.

Spatio-temporal evolution and topographic gradient effect of land use and ecosystem service value in the Lhasa River Basin

The Lhasa River Basin forms an essential human settlement area in the southern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.This study employed ecosystem service value(ESV)evaluation model,terrain gradient grading,and Geodetector to analyze land use and ESV in the Lhasa River Basin from 1985 to 2020.The findings reveal that:(1)From 1985 to 2020,grassland was the dominant land use.There was a trend of grassland reduction and the expansion of other land types.(2)ESV has increased over the research period(with a total increase of 0.84%),with higher values in the southeast and lower values in the northwest.Grassland contributed the most to ESV,and climate regulation and hydrological regulation were the ecosystem services that contribute the most to ESV.(3)Natural factors like NDVI and altitude,as well as economic factors like population density and distance from roads,influenced the spatial differentiation of ESV,the explanatory power of NDVI reached up to 0.47.The interaction between factors had a greater impact than individual factors.These research results can provide theoretical support for national spatial planning and ecological environment protection in the Lhasa River Basin and other similar areas.

Coupling Coordination Analysis of Cropland Intensification and Agroecosystem Services:Evidence from Loess Plateau in Shaanxi Province,China

One of the greatest challenges in the agroecosystem is to improve cropland intensification while preserving agroecosystem services.While many studies have investigated the effect of cropland intensification on agroecosystem service,the interactive coupling and coordination among these factors remain largely unexplored.In view of this,this study performed a case study of the Loess Plateau in Shaanxi Province,China and constructed comprehensive evaluation models to quantify the cropland intensification and agroecosystem service in this area.Balance analysis and the coupling coordination degree model were used to evaluate the interactive relationship between cropland intensification and agroecosystem service,and statistical analysis and spatial autocorrelation were used to analyze the spatial characteristics and potential mechanism of the coupling coordination.Results show that both the cropland intensification and agroecosystem service in the study area were relatively low yet gradually increased from 2000 to 2020.Agroecosystem service lag was identified as the dominant unbalanced development type.Improving the supply capacity of agroecosystem services plays a key role in the balanced development of cropland in the Loess Plateau.The coupling coordination degree between cropland intensification and agroecosystem service ranges from basic coordination to serious incoordination.Therefore,cropland intensification practices in the area should be optimized to enhance this coordination degree.An upward trend was also observed in the coupling coordination degree from2000 to 2020.The withdrawal of marginal cropland in the Grain for Green program is one of the most important reasons for this trend,especially for the northern region.Around 83.6%of the high-high clusters are concentrated in the southern region of the Loess Plateau,whereas 70.5%of the low-low clusters are distributed in the northern region.These clustering characteristics are mainly attributed to the environmental suitability of these areas for agriculture and their degree of economic development.

Effectiveness of Short Message Service Support on Adherence to Chemotherapy Treatment among Patients Attending Cancer Treatment Facilities in Kenya

Introduction: Cancer is a chronic debilitating disease that unnerves patients, communities, and nations. At some point in cancer patient’s disease experience, chemotherapy is used, and the patient is expected to adhere to treatment to improve survival and quality of life. Methods: This multisite Cluster Randomized Trial (CRT) evaluated the effectiveness of mobile phone Short Message Service (SMS) support on the adherence to treatment schedules among adult cancer patients in Kenya. Data was collected using questionnaires. Ethical approvals were obtained from relevant Ethical Review Boards (ERBs). Results: The mean adherence was 83%. There was a significant difference between treatment arms in relation to the adherence. The intervention arm had a higher mean adherence difference, M = 3.913, 95% CI 2.632-5.193, t (402) = 6.006, p ≤ 0.001), with Cohen’s d = 0.60. Although not significant, (χ2dd = 0.151, df = 1, p = 2.064), more women were perfect adheres than males. Perfect adherers were satisfied with SMS support (χ2dd = 7.620, df = 1, p = 0.06), were in the intervention arm (χ2dd = 22.942, df = 1, p ≤ 0.001), and had trust in the care provider (χ2dd = 10.591 p ≤ 0.001). SMS support was not significant in the multivariate analysis but had an estimated effect size of 0.958 (z = 1.424, p = 0.154, CI = 0.242-3.781), indicating that mean adherence was slightly better in the presence of the intervention. Conclusions: SMS-support intervention has demonstrated superiority in influencing adherence. Further, health system-related factors have a significant influence on the adherence to chemotherapy treatment. Interventions to re-design health systems that are responsive to unmet care needs of cancer patients must be explored. .

The coordinated evolution of ecological environment,public service,and tourism economy along the Silk Road Economic Belt,using the Dual-Carbon Targets

Carbon peak and carbon neutrality(dual-carbon)are important targets for the international response to climate change.The Silk Road Economic Belt is a strategic resource region and is important for future ecological environment and tourism development.Based on the“dual-carbon”targets,the Single index quantification,Multiple index synthesis,and Poly-criteria integration evaluation model were used in this study to measure the coordinated development index of the ecological environment,public service,and tourism economy along the Silk Road Economic Belt and to analyze its spatial and temporal evolution.Further,it explores the dynamic evolution and development trend of the three systems using the Kernel Density and Grey Markov Prediction Model.The results show that the coordinated development index along this region needs to be improved during the study period.Furthermore,the coordinated development index of the Southwest region is relatively higher than that of the Northwest region.From the development trend of the three systems,all of them develop in a stable manner;however,the tourism economy system is easily affected by external disturbances.The coordinated development index of the three systems changes dynamically and tends to be in a good state of coordination.There is a certain spatial and temporal heterogeneity.The gravity center of the coordinated development index has been in the Southwest region.During the forecast period,the coordinated development index along this region will improve significantly,while insufficient and unbalanced development will continue.