On the Application of Mixed Models of Probability and Convex Set for Time-Variant Reliability Analysis

In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems typically involve a complexmultilevel nested optimization problem,which can result in an enormous amount of computation.To this end,this paper studies the time-variant reliability evaluation of structures with stochastic and bounded uncertainties using a mixed probability and convex set model.In this method,the stochastic process of a limit-state function with mixed uncertain parameters is first discretized and then converted into a timeindependent reliability problem.Further,to solve the double nested optimization problem in hybrid reliability calculation,an efficient iterative scheme is designed in standard uncertainty space to determine the most probable point(MPP).The limit state function is linearized at these points,and an innovative random variable is defined to solve the equivalent static reliability analysis model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by two benchmark numerical examples and a practical engineering problem.

Robust Parameter Identification Method of Adhesion Model for Heavy Haul Trains

A robust parameter identification method based on Kiencke model was proposed to solve the problem of the parameter identification accuracy being affected by the rail environment change and noise interference for heavy-duty trains. Firstly, a Kiencke stick-creep identification model was constructed, and the parameter identification task was transformed into a quadratic programming problem. Secondly, an iterative algorithm was constructed to solve the problem, into which a time-varying forgetting factor was added to track the change of the rail environment, and to solve the uncertainty problem of the wheel-rail environment. The Granger causality test was adopted to detect the interference, and then the weights of the current data were redistributed to solve the problem of noise interference in parameter identification. Finally, simulations were carried out and the results showed that the proposed method could track the change of the track environment in time, reduce the noise interference in the identification process, and effectively identify the adhesion performance parameters.

Analytical Modeling and Mechanism Analysis of Time-Varying Excitation for Surface Defects in Rolling Element Bearings

Surface defects,including dents,spalls,and cracks,for rolling element bearings are the most common faults in rotating machinery.The accurate model for the time-varying excitation is the basis for the vibration mechanism analysis and fault feature extraction.However,in conventional investigations,this issue is not well and fully addressed from the perspective of theoretical analysis and physical derivation.In this study,an improved analytical model for time-varying displacement excitations(TVDEs)caused by surface defects is theoretically formulated.First and foremost,the physical mechanism for the effect of defect sizes on the physical process of rolling element-defect interaction is revealed.According to the physical interaction mechanism between the rolling element and different types of defects,the relationship between time-varying displacement pulse and defect sizes is further analytically derived.With the obtained time-varying displacement pulse,the dynamic model for the deep groove bearings considering the internal excitation caused by the surface defect is established.The nonlinear vibration responses and fault features induced by surface defects are analyzed using the proposed TVDE model.The results suggest that the presence of surface defects may result in the occurrence of the dual-impulse phenomenon,which can serve as indexes for surface-defect fault diagnosis.

Time-varying gravity field model of Sichuan-Yunnan region based on the equivalent mass source model

High-precision time-varying gravity field is an effective way to study the internal mass movement and understanding the spatio-temporal evolution process of the geodynamic system.Compared to the satellite gravity measurement,the repeated terrestrial gravity observation can provide a more high-order signal related to the shallow crust and subsurface.However,the suitable and unified method for gravity model estimation is a key problem for further applications.In this study,we introduce the spherical hexahedron element to simulate the field source mass and forward model the change of gravity field located at the Sichuan-Yunnan region(99—104°E,23—29°N)in the four epochs from 2015 to 2017.Compared to the experimental results based on Slepian or spherical harmonics frequency domain method,this alternative approach is suitable for constructing the equivalent mass source model of regional-scale gravity data,by introducing the first-order smooth prior condition of gravity time-varying signal to suppress the high-frequency component of the signal.The results can provide a higher spatial resolution reference for regional gravity field modeling in the Sichuan-Yunnan region.

Epidemic threshold influenced by non-pharmaceutical interventions in residential university environments

The control of highly contagious disease spreading in campuses is a critical challenge.In residential universities,students attend classes according to a curriculum schedule,and mainly pack into classrooms,dining halls and dorms.They move from one place to another.To simulate such environments,we propose an agent-based susceptible–infected–recovered model with time-varying heterogeneous contact networks.In close environments,maintaining physical distancing is the most widely recommended and encouraged non-pharmaceutical intervention.It can be easily realized by using larger classrooms,adopting staggered dining hours,decreasing the number of students per dorm and so on.Their real-world influence remains uncertain.With numerical simulations,we obtain epidemic thresholds.The effect of such countermeasures on reducing the number of disease cases is also quantitatively evaluated.

基于时变ARVX模型的结构参数识别

详述了线性多自由度结构的ARVX模型实现,通过一个输入输出完整情况下的实例分析,验证了时变ARVX模型用于结构时变参数识别的可行性,并对识别结果进行了分析.

Neural Network and GBSM Based Time-Varying and Stochastic Channel Modeling for 5G Millimeter Wave Communications

In this work,a frame work for time-varying channel modeling and simulation is proposed by using neural network(NN)to overcome the shortcomings in geometry based stochastic model(GBSM)and simulation approach.Two NN models are developed for modeling of path loss together with shadow fading(SF)and joint small scale channel parameters.The NN models can predict path loss plus SF and small scale channel parameters accurately compared with measurement at 26 GHz performed in an outdoor microcell.The time-varying path loss and small scale channel parameters generated by the NN models are proposed to replace the empirical path loss and channel parameter random numbers in GBSM-based framework to playback the measured channel and match with its environment.Moreover,the sparse feature of clusters,delay and angular spread,channel capacity are investigated by a virtual array measurement at 28 GHz in a large waiting hall.

Optimal Iterative Learning Control for Batch Processes Based on Linear Time-varying Perturbation Model

A batch-to-batch optimal iterative learning control （ILC） strategy for the tracking control of product quality in batch processes is presented. The linear time-varying perturbation （LTVP） model is built for product quality around the nominal trajectories. To address problems of model-plant mismatches, model prediction errors in the previous batch run are added to the model predictions for the current batch run. Then tracking error transition models can be built, and the ILC law with direct error feedback is explicitly obtained, A rigorous theorem is proposed, to prove the convergence of tracking error under ILC, The proposed methodology is illustrated on a typical batch reactor and the results show that the performance of trajectory tracking is gradually improved by the ILC.

Spatial distribution characteristics and mechanism of nonhydrological time-variable gravity in China's Mainland

The purpose of this study is to explore nonhydrological mass transfer in China's Mainland.For this purpose,gravity recovery and climate experiment(GRACE)data were obtained to study the spatial distribution of time variant gravity signals in China's Mainland.Then,from auxiliary hydrological data processed according to the current hydrological model,a new more comprehensive hydrological model of China's Mainland was constructed.Finally,the time variant signals of this new hydrological model were removed from the time variant gravity field computed from GRACE data,thus obtaining a description of the nonhydrological mass transfer of China's Mainland.The physical sources and mechanisms of the resulting mass transfer are then discussed.The improved,more realistic,hydrological model used here was created by selecting the hydrological components with the best correlations in existing hydrological models,by use of correlation calculation,analysis,and comparison.This improved model includes water in soils and deeper strata,in the vegetation canopy,in lakes,snow,and glaciers,and in other water components(mainly reservoir storage,swamps,and rivers).The spatial distribution of the transfer signals due to nonhydrological mass in China's Mainland was obtained by subtracting the combined hydrological model from the GRACE time-variable gravity field.The results show that the nonhydrological signals in China's Mainland collected in GRACE data were mainly positive signals,and were distributed in the Bohai Rim and the northern and eastern parts of the Tibetan Plateau.The above nonhydrological mass transfer signals have been studied further and are discussed.The results show that the nonhydrological mass migration signals in the Bohai Rim region originate primarily from sea level change and marine sediment accumulation.The mass accumulation from Indian plate collision in the Tibetan Plateau appears to be the main reason for the increase in the residual gravity field in that region.

Identifi cation of model structure parameters via combination of AFMM and ARX from seismic response data

To identify the model structure parameters in shaking table tests from seismic response, especially from time- varying response records, this paper presents a new methodology by combining the online recursive Adaptive Forgetting through Multiple Models （AFMM） and offtine Auto-Regression with eXogenous variables （ARX） model. First, the AFMM is employed to detect whether the response of model structure is time-invariant or time-varying when subjected to strong motions. Second, if the response is time-invariant, the modal parameters are identified from the entire response record, such as the acceleration time-history using the ARX model. If the response is time-varying, the acceleration record is divided into three segments according to the accurate time-varying points detected by AFMM, and parameters are identified by only using the tail segment data, which is time-invariant and suited for analysis by the ARX model. Finally, the changes in dynamic properties due to various strong motions are obtained using the presented methodology. The feasibility and advantages of the method are demonstrated by identifying the modal parameters of a 12-story reinforced concrete （RC） frame structure in a shaking table test.

Parameter Estimation of Time-Varying ARMA Model

The auto-regressive moving-average (ARMA) model with time-varying parameters is analyzed. The time-varying parameters are assumed to be a linear combination of a set of basis time-varying functions, and the feedback linear estimation algorithm is used to estimate the time-varying parameters of the ARMA model. This algorithm includes 2 linear least squares estimations and a linear filter. The influence of the order of basis time-(varying) functions on parameters estimation is analyzed. The method has the advantage of simple, saving computation time and storage space. Theoretical analysis and experimental results show the validity of this method.

Translational - torsional coupled model based nonlinear dynamic analysis of an NGW planetary gear train

This paper aims to investigate the nonlinear dynamic behaviors of an NGW planetary gear train with multi-clearances and manufacturing/assembling errors. For this purpose, an analytical translational- torsional coupled dynamic model is developed considering the effects of time-varying stiffness, gear backlashes and component errors. Based on the proposed model, the nonlinear differential equations of motion are derived and solved iteratively by the Runge-Kutta method. An NGW planetary gear reducer with three planets is taken as an example to analyze the effects of nonlinear factors. The results indicate that the backlashes induce complicated nonlinear dynamic behaviors in the gear train. With the increment of the backlashes, the gear system has experienced periodic responses, quasi-periodic response and chaos responses in sequence. When the planetary gear system is in a chaotic motion state, the vibration amplitude increases sharply, causing severe vibration and noise. The present study provides a fundamental basis for design and parameter optimization of NGW planetary gear trains.

Comparison of Cox proportional hazards model,Cox proportional hazards with time-varying coefficients model,and lognormal accelerated failure time model:Application in time to event analysis of melioidosis patients

Objective:To compare the prognostic factors of mortality among melioidosis patients between lognormal accelerated failure time(AFT),Cox proportional hazards(PH),and Cox PH with time-varying coefficient(TVC)models.Methods:A retrospective study was conducted from 2014 to 2019 among 453 patients who were admitted to Hospital Sultanah Bahiyah,Kedah and Hospital Tuanku Fauziah,Perlis in Northern Malaysia due to confirmed-cultured melioidosis.The prognostic factors of mortality from melioidosis were obtained from AFT survival analysis,and Cox’s models and the findings were compared by using the goodness of fit methods.The analyses were done by using Stata SE version 14.0.Results:A total of 242 patients(53.4%)survived.In this study,the median survival time of melioidosis patients was 30.0 days(95%CI 0.0-60.9).Six significant prognostic factors were identified in the Cox PH model and Cox PH-TVC model.In AFT survival analysis,a total of seven significant prognostic factors were identified.The results were found to be only a slight difference between the identified prognostic factors among the models.AFT survival showed better results compared to Cox's models,with the lowest Akaike information criteria and best fitted Cox-snell residuals.Conclusions:AFT survival analysis provides more reliable results and can be used as an alternative statistical analysis for determining the prognostic factors of mortality in melioidosis patients in certain situations.

Deep learning-based time-varying channel estimation with basis expansion model for MIMO-OFDM system

For high-speed mobile MIMO-OFDM system,a low-complexity deep learning(DL) based timevarying channel estimation scheme is proposed.To reduce the number of estimated parameters,the basis expansion model(BEM) is employed to model the time-varying channel,which converts the channel estimation into the estimation of the basis coefficient.Specifically,the initial basis coefficients are firstly used to train the neural network in an offline manner,and then the high-precision channel estimation can be obtained by small number of inputs.Moreover,the linear minimum mean square error(LMMSE) estimated channel is considered for the loss function in training phase,which makes the proposed method more practical.Simulation results show that the proposed method has a better performance and lower computational complexity compared with the available schemes,and it is robust to the fast time-varying channel in the high-speed mobile scenarios.

Wavelet-Based Nonstationary Wind Speed Model in Dongting Lake Cable-Stayed Bridge

The wind-rain induced vibration phenomena in the Dongting Lake Bridge (DLB) can be observed every year, and the field measurements of wind speed data of the bridge are usually nonstationary. Nonstationary wind speed can be decomposed into a deterministic time-varying mean wind speed and a zero-mean stationary fluctuating wind speed component. By using wavelet transform (WT), the time-varying mean wind speed is extracted and a nonstationary wind speed model is proposed in this paper. The wind characteristics of turbulence intensity, integral scale and probability distribution of the bridge are calculated from the typical wind samples recorded by the two anemometers installed on the DLB using the proposed nonstationary wind speed model based on WT. The calculated results are compared with those calculated by the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and traditional approaches. The compared results indicate that the wavelet-based nonstationary wind speed model is more reasonable and appropriate than the EMD-based nonstationary and traditional stationary models for characterizing wind speed in analysis of wind-rain-induced vibration of cables.

Markov-Switching Time-Varying Copula Modeling of Dependence Structure between Oil and GCC Stock Markets

This paper proposes a Markov-switching copula model to examine the presence of regime change in the time-varying dependence structure between oil price changes and stock market returns in six GCC countries. The marginal distributions are assumed to follow a long-memory model while the copula parameters are supposed to evolve according to the Markov-switching process. Furthermore, we estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) based on the proposed approach. The empirical results provide evidence of three regime changes, representing precrisis, financial crisis and post-crisis, in the dependence structure between energy and GCC stock markets. In particular, in the pre- and post-crisis regimes, there is no dependence, while in the crisis regime, there is significant tail dependence. For OPEC countries, we find lower tail dependence whereas in non-OPEC countries, we see upper tail dependence. VaR experiments show that the Markov-switching time- varying copula model performs better than the time-varying copula model.

5D World-Universe Model. Neutrinos. The World

In this manuscript we discuss mass-varying neutrinos and propose their energy density to exceed that of baryonic and dark matter. We introduce cosmic Large Grains whose mass is about Planck mass, and their temperature is around 29 K. Large Grains are in fact Bose-Einstein condensates of proposed dineutrinos, and are responsible for the cosmic Far-Infrared Background (FIRB) radiation. The distribution of the energy density of all components of the World (protons, electrons, photons, neutrinos, and dark matter particles) is considered. We present an overview of the World- Universe Model (WUM) and pay particular attention to the self-consistent set of time-varying values of basic parameters of the World: the age and critical energy density;Newtonian parameter of gravitation and Hubble’s parameter;temperatures of the cosmic Microwave Background radiation and the peak of the cosmic FIRB radiation;Fermi coupling parameter and coupling parameters of the proposed Super-Weak and Extremely-Weak interactions. Additionally, WUM forecasts the masses of dark matter particles, axions, and neutrinos;proposes two fundamental parameters of the World: fine-structure constant α and the quantity Q which is the dimensionless value of the fifth coordinate, and three fundamental physical units: basic unit of momentum, energy density, and energy flux density. WUM suggests that all time-dependent parameters of the World are inter- connected and in fact dependent on Q. We recommend adding the quantity Q to the list of the CODATA-recommended values.

World-Universe Model Predictions

In 2013, World-Universe Model (WUM) proposed a principally different way to solve the problem of Newtonian Constant of Gravitation measurement precision. WUM revealed a self-consistent set of time-varying values of Primary Cosmological parameters of the World: Gravitation parameter, Hubble’s parameter, Age of the World, Temperature of the Microwave Background Radiation, and the concentration of Intergalactic plasma. Based on the inter-connectivity of these parameters, WUM solved the Missing Baryon problem and predicted the values of the following Cosmological parameters: gravitation G, concentration of Intergalactic plasma, relative energy density of protons in the Medium, and the minimum energy of photons, which were experimentally confirmed in 2015-2018. Between 2013 and 2018, the relative standard uncertainty of G measurements decreased x6. The set of values obtained by WUM was recommended for consideration in CODATA Recommended Values of the Fundamental Physical Constants 2014.

An Improved Dynamic Modelling for Exploring Ball Bearing Vibrations from Time-Varying Oil Film

Bearings are key components in rotating machinery,which is widely used in many fields,such as CNC machines,wind turbines and induction machines.The increasingly harsh operation environment can lead to wear and tear on raceways and reduce the precision and reliability of bearing or even machinery.Lubrication could relieve the wear to some degree,which is benefit to prolong the bearing’s life.Thus,investigation on the vibration responses under the influence of oil film is of great significance.However,for mechanism analysis,how to include the oil film into the bearing dynamic model affects the result and efficiency of solution.To address this problem,this study proposed a fast algorithm through load distribution and interpolation when calculating oil film stiffness and thickness during the solution of bearing vibration model.Analysis of oil film on vibration is carried out and a bearing test rig is designed to verify the proposed model.Numerical simulation result shows that rotational speed and load have vital effect on oil film and vibration.The experimental result is consistent with the simulation,which shows that the proposed model has a better performance on modeling bearing vibration and the method of considering oil film is reasonable.

Gear Rattle Analysis of Manual Transmission Based on a Branched Model

A branched model was established to reproduce the vehicle creeping status and illustrate the mechanism for severe rattle phenomena of a 5-speed manual transmission in this paper.Firstly,a quasi-transient engine model was founded and the effective output torque with the crankshaft angle changing was achieved.Then,the time-varying stiffness of loaded gear pairs was obtained,which was calculated by both bending and shearing deformation stiffnesses through finite element result regression analysis and the contact deformation stiffness through the empirical formula.Finally,the branched model of powertrain system considering LuG re tire property and differential characteristics was established to predict the vehicle creeping status and rattle phenomenon of unloaded gear pairs in consideration of detailed drag torque model,and it would make a solid theoretical basis for further research on gear rattle mechanism and vehicle experiments.