On the Application of Mixed Models of Probability and Convex Set for Time-Variant Reliability Analysis

In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems typically involve a complexmultilevel nested optimization problem,which can result in an enormous amount of computation.To this end,this paper studies the time-variant reliability evaluation of structures with stochastic and bounded uncertainties using a mixed probability and convex set model.In this method,the stochastic process of a limit-state function with mixed uncertain parameters is first discretized and then converted into a timeindependent reliability problem.Further,to solve the double nested optimization problem in hybrid reliability calculation,an efficient iterative scheme is designed in standard uncertainty space to determine the most probable point(MPP).The limit state function is linearized at these points,and an innovative random variable is defined to solve the equivalent static reliability analysis model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by two benchmark numerical examples and a practical engineering problem.

The Impact of Model Based Offset Scaling Technique on the Amplitude Variation with Offset Responses from 3D Seismic Data Acquired from the Tano Basin, Offshore Ghana

Amplitudes have been found to be a function of incident angle and offset. Hence data required to test for amplitude variation with angle or offset needs to have its amplitudes for all offsets preserved and not stacked. Amplitude Variation with Offset (AVO)/Amplitude Variation with Angle (AVA) is necessary to account for information in the offset/angle parameter (mode converted S-wave and P-wave velocities). Since amplitudes are a function of the converted S- and P-waves, it is important to investigate the dependence of amplitudes on the elastic (P- and S-waves) parameters from the seismic data. By modelling these effects for different reservoir fluids via fluid substitution, various AVO geobody classes present along the well and in the entire seismic cube can be observed. AVO analysis was performed on one test well (Well_1) and 3D pre-stack angle gathers from the Tano Basin. The analysis involves creating a synthetic model to infer the effect of offset scaling techniques on amplitude responses in the Tano basin as compared to the effect of unscaled seismic data. The spectral balance process was performed to match the amplitude spectra of all angle stacks to that of the mid (26°) stack on the test lines. The process had an effect primarily on the far (34° - 40°) stacks. The frequency content of these stacks slightly increased to match that of the near and mid stacks. In offset scaling process, the root mean square (RMS) amplitude comparison between the synthetic and seismic suggests that the amplitude of the far traces should be reduced relative to the nears by up to 16%. However, the exact scaler values depend on the time window considered. This suggests that the amplitude scaling with offset delivered from seismic processing is only approximately correct and needs to be checked with well synthetics and adjusted accordingly prior to use for AVO studies. The AVO attribute volumes generated were better at resolving anomalies on spectrally balanced and offset scaled data than data delivered from conventional processing. A typical class II AVO anomaly is seen along the test well from the cross-plot analysis and AVO attribute cube which indicates an oil filled reservoir.

基于SBAS-InSAR与Offset-Tracking的色东普流域灾前形变探究

利用SAR偏移量追踪(offset-tracking)技术获取冰川形变作为SBAS-InSAR的补充,采用2种技术计算2018-01~10色东普流域灾前形变,联合分析灾前形变特征及影响因素。结果表明,色东普流域冰川与沟道在2018-10-17冰崩灾害发生前已出现形变;冰川主要形变区形变趋势表现为加速-平缓-加速,7~9月形变量达到-7.69 m;沟道内堆积物长期呈下滑趋势,7月后与冰川均加速形变;气温升高是冰崩碎屑流灾害发生的主导因素。联合SBAS-InSAR与offset-tracking技术能够满足不同形变量级的监测需求,可用于冰崩灾害的早期识别与形变反演,为青藏高原地区冰崩灾害防治提供参考。

Permanent Magnet Temperature Estimation for PMSMs Using Virtual Position-offset Injection

This paper proposes a virtual position-offset injection based permanent magnet temperature estimation approach for permanent magnet synchronous machines(PMSMs). The concept of virtual position-offset injection is mathematically transforming the machine model to a virtual frame with a position-offset. The virtual frame temperature estimation model is derived to calculate the permanent magnet temperature(PMT) directly from the measurements with computation efficiency. The estimation model involves a combined inductance term, which can simplify the establishment of saturation compensation model with less measurements. Moreover, resistance and inverter distorted terms are cancelled in the estimation model, which can improve the robustness to the winding temperature rise and inverter distortion. The proposed approach can achieve simplified computation in temperature estimation and reduced memory usage in saturation compensation. While existing model-based approaches could be affected by either the need of resistance and inverter information or complex saturation compensation. Experiments are conducted on the test machine to verify the proposed approach under various operating conditions.

Analytical Determination of Size and Location of Roadside Horizontal Sightline Offsets for Compound Curves

AASHTO’s guideline for geometric design of highways and similar guidelines require that roadside areas on the inside of horizontal curves be cleared of high objects to provide stopping sight distance. The guidelines have analytical models for determining the extent of clearance, known as the horizontal sightline offset or clearance offset, for simple curves. Researchers in the past have developed analytical models for clearance offsets for spiraled and reverse curves. Very few researchers developed analytical models for available sight distances for compound curves. Still missing are models for horizontal sightline offsets and locations of the offsets for compound curves. The objective of this paper is to present development of analytical models and charts for determining horizontal sightline offsets and their locations for compound curves. The paper considers curves whose component arcs are individually shorter than stopping sight distance. The resulting models and the charts have been verified with accurate values determined using graphical methods. The models and the charts will find application in geometric design of highway compound curves.

Offset restoration in total hip arthroplasty:Important:A current review

Normal vertical and horizontal offset is essential for hip biomechanics,muscle functioning and gait pattern.Total hip arthroplasty(THA)should aim to restore normal offset with implantation of femoral and acetabular components.This would be possible with proper preoperative planning,templating and ensuring implant options are available for offset restoration.Templating is essential for understanding the vertical and horizontal offset change,especially in hip arthritis presenting late with significant limb length discrepancy at THA.Planning should include appropriate soft tissue releases and the use of ideal implants to achieve restoration of horizontal and vertical offset.Under correction of horizontal offset at THA for fracture neck of femur could result in abductor fatigue,limp and increased wear.Restoration of horizontal offset is imperative at THA for a fractured neck of the femur to achieve optimal abductor function.Horizontal offset is necessary for optimal abductor muscle tension and function.Revision THA for acetabular bone loss would require hip center restoration with the acetabular and femoral offset correction to achieve limb length correction and abductor length.The inability to achieve vertical and horizontal offset correction could lead to dislocation or signs of abductor fatigue.Careful vertical and horizontal femur offset restoration is required for normal hip biomechanics,decreased wear and increased longevity.

Near resonance vibration isolation on a levered-dual response(LEDAR)Coulomb-damped system by differential preloads/offsets in linear springs

The levered-dual response(LEDAR)Coulomb-damped system attains near resonant vibration isolation by differential preloads/offsets in linear springs.It takes the advantages of both the preloads/offsets in linear springs and the guiderail friction for realizing different levels of vibration isolation.The isolation capacities are investigated on the strategies with both the horizontal and vertical guiderails,with the horizontal rail only,and without guiderails.The compressive preloads generally result in the consumption of most of the initial excitation energy so as to overcome the potential threshold.The isolation onsets at the frequency ratio of 1∓0.095 on the left-hand side(LHS)and the right-hand side(RHS)of the lever are relative to the load plate connector.The observed near resonant isolation thus makes the LEDAR system a candidate for the isolation of the mechanical systems about resonance while opening a path for simultaneous harvesterisolation functions and passive functions at extreme frequencies.

The Effect of Lateral Offset Distance on the Aerodynamics and Fuel Economy of Vehicle Queues

The vehicle industry is always in search of breakthrough energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies.In recent years,vehicle intelligence has progressed considerably,and researchers are currently trying to take advantage of these developments.Here we consider the case of many vehicles forming a queue,i.e.,vehicles traveling at a predetermined speed and distance apart.While the majority of existing studies on this subject have focused on the influence of the longitudinal vehicle spacing,vehicle speed,and the number of vehicles on aerodynamic drag and fuel economy,this study considers the lateral offset distance of the vehicle queue.The group fuel consumption savings rate is calculated and analyzed.As also demonstrated by experimental results,some aerodynamic benefits exist.Moreover,the fuel consumption saving rate of the vehicle queue decreases as the lateral offset distance increases.

A Residual Frequency Offset Estimation Method Based on Range Migration Fitting

Recently,researchers have proposed an emitter localization method based on passive synthetic aperture.However,the unknown residual frequency offset(RFO)between the transmit-ter and the receiver causes the received Doppler signal to shift,which affects the localization accu-racy.To solve this issue,this paper proposes a RFO estimation method based on range migration fitting.Due to the high frequency modulation slope of the linear frequency modulation(LFM)-mod-ulation radar signal,it is not affected by RFO in range compression.Therefore,the azimuth time can be estimated by fitting the peak value position of the pulse compression in range direction.Then,the matched filters are designed under different RFOs.When the zero-Doppler time obtained by the matched filters is consistent with the estimated azimuth time,the given RFO is the real RFO between the transceivers.The simulation results show that the estimation error of azimuth distance does not exceed 20 m when the received signal duration is not less than 3 s,the pulse repe-tition frequency(PRF)of the transmitter radar signal is not less than 1 kHz,the range detection is not larger than 1000 km,and the signal noise ratio(SNR)is not less than-5 dB.

Simulation of spatially coupling dynamic response of train-track time-variant system

There exist three problems in the calculation of lateral vibration of the train-track time-variant system athome and abroad and the method to solve them is presented. Spatially coupling vibration analysis model of train-track time-variant system is put forward. Each vehicle is modeled as a multi-body system with 26 degrees of freedomand the action of coupler is also considered. The track structure is modeled as an assembly of track elements with 30degrees of freedom, then the spatially coupling vibration matrix equation of the train-track time-variant system is es-tablished on the basis of the principle of total potential energy with stationary value and the "set-in-right-position"rule. The track vertical geometric irregularity is considered as the excitation source of the vertical vibration of thesystem, and the hunting wave of car bogie frame is taken as the excitation source of lateral vibration of the system.The spatially coupling vibration matrix equation of the system is solved by Wilson-θ direct integration method. Theapproximation of the calculated results to the spot test results demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of thepresented analysis method. Finally, some other vibration responses of the system are also obtained.

Time-variant fragility analysis of the bridge system considering time-varying dependence among typical component seismic demands

This paper presents a copula technique to develop time-variant seismic fragility curves for corroded bridges at the system level and considers the realistic time-varying dependence among component seismic demands. Based on material deterioration mechanisms and incremental dynamic analysis, the time-evolving seismic demands of components were obtained in the form of marginal probability distributions. The time-varying dependences among bridge components were then captured with the best fitting copula function, which was selected from the commonly used copula classes by the empirical distribution based analysis method. The system time-variant fragility curves at different damage states were developed and the effects of time-varying dependences among components on the bridge system fragility were investigated. The results indicate the time-varying dependence among components significantly affects the time-variant fragility of the bridge system. The copula technique captures the nonlinear dependence among component seismic demands accurately and easily by separating the marginal distributions and the dependence among them.

Time-Variant Reliability-Based Multi-Objective Fuzzy Design Optimization for Anti-Roll Torsion Bar of EMU

Although various types of anti-roll torsion bars have been developed to inhibit excessive roll angle of the electric multiple unit(EMU)car body,it is critical to ensure the reliability of structural design due to the complexity of the problems involving time and uncertainties.To address this issue,amulti-objective fuzzy design optimization model is constructed considering time-variant stiffness and strength reliability constraints for the anti-roll torsion bar.A hybrid optimization strategy combining the design of experiment(DoE)sampling and non-linear programming by quadratic lagrangian(NLPQL)is presented to deal with the design optimization model.To characterize the effect of time on the structural performance of the torsion bar,the continuous-time model combined with Ito lemma is proposed to establish the time-variant stiffness and strength reliability constraints.Fuzzy mathematics is employed to conduct uncertainty quantification for the design parameters of the torsion bar.A physical programming approach is used to improve the designer’s preference and to make the optimization results more consistent with engineering practices.Moreover,the effectiveness of the proposed method has been validated by comparing with current methods in a practical engineering case.

Time-variant reliability analysis of three-dimensional slopes based on Support Vector Machine method

In the reliability analysis of slope, the performance functions derived from the most available stability analysis procedures of slopes are usually implicit and cannot be solved by first-order second-moment approach. A new reliability analysis approach was presented based on three-dimensional Morgenstem-Price method to investigate three-dimensional effect of landslide in stability analyses. To obtain the reliability index, Support Vector Machine （SVM） was applied to approximate the performance function. The time-consuming of this approach is only 0.028% of that using Monte-Carlo method at the same computation accuracy. Also, the influence of time effect of shearing strength parameters of slope soils on the long-term reliability of three-dimensional slopes was investigated by this new approach. It is found that the reliability index of the slope would decrease by 52.54% and the failure probability would increase from 0.000 705% to 1.966%. In the end, the impact of variation coefficients of c andfon reliability index of slopes was taken into discussion and the changing trend was observed.

Time-Variant Reliability Analysis of FPSO Hull Girder Considering Corrosion Based on Statistics

FPSO is a kind of important exploitation platform used in ocean oil and gas industry, which has the unique character of mooring at outsea for a long time. Since it can not be inspected and maintained thoronghly at dock like other kinds of ships, the reliability of FPSO hull girder during the whole service should be focused. Based on latest corrosion database and rational corrosion model, the ultimate strength of one FPSO is calculated under the conditions of slight, moderate and severe corrosion. The results not only provide the reliabihty under different corrosion conditions, but also do well for further inspection and maintenance research. The results provide necessary foundation for deciding inspection intervals and maintenance measure, which has practical sense to improve the general safety level of ocean engineering.

Modulation Recognition with Frequency Offset and Phase Offset over Multipath Channels

Modulation recognition becomes unreliable at low signal-to-noise ratio(SNR)over fading channel.A novel method is proposed to recognize the digital modulated signals with frequency and phase offsets over multi-path fading channels in this paper.This method can overcome the effects of phase offset,Gaussian noise and multi-path fading.To achieve this,firstly,the characteristic parameters search is constructed based on the cyclostationarity of received signals,to overcome the phase offset,Gaussian white noise,and influence caused by multi-path fading.Then,the carrier frequency of the received signal is estimated,and the maximum characteristic parameter is searched around the integer multiple carriers and their vicinities.Finally,the modulation types of the received signal with frequency and phase offsets are classified using decision thresholds.Simulation results demonstrate that the performance of the proposed method is better than the traditional methods when SNR is over 5dB,and that the proposed method is robust to frequency and phase offsets over multipath channels.

GRACE time-variable gravity and its application to geoscience:Quantitative analysis of relevant literature

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE)is the most important gravity satellite to date in human history.Since its launch in 2002,GRACE time-varying gravity has had an unprecedented impact on earth science and has generated revolutionary changes.Because of natural phenomena such as climate warming,glacial melting,sea level rise,and earthquakes,earth science research has become an increasingly popular discipline in recent years.This article summarizes the importance of GRACE time-varying gravity,its application to geoscience,and its development.We analyzed the historical development and current status of GRACE time-varying gravity as well as research hotspots by searching the literature in the core collection databases of the China National Knowledge Infrastructure and the Web of Science over the past 20 years.The CiteSpace and VOSviewer software packages were applied with reference to the principle of literature metrology.Our investigation and analysis of characteristic indexes,such as the numbers of publications,co-occurrence of keywords,and co-citation of documents,uncovered the wide application and promotion of gravity satellites,especially GRACE time-varying gravity,in earth science.The results showed that the number of publications addressing GRACE data and time-varying gravity theory is increasing annually and that the USA,China,and Germany are the main producers.The Chinese Academy of Sciences,the National Aeronautics and Space Administration of the United States,and the Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres rank among the top three institutions in the world in terms of producing the most publications on this topic.We found that GRACE time-varying gravity plays unique roles in measuring changes in terrestrial water storage changes,ice and snow melting and sea level changes,and(co)seismic gravity changes,as well as in promoting other disciplines.

Complex Modal Analysis for the Time-Variant Dynamical Problem of Rotating Pipe Conveying Fluid

A semi-analytical form of complex modal analysis is proposed for the time-variant dynamical problem of rotating pipe conveying fluid system.The complex mode superposition method is introduced for the dynamic analysis in the time and frequency domains,in which appropriate orthogonality conditions are constructed to decouple the time-variant equation of motion.Consequently,complex frequencies and modes of vibration are analytically formulated and the variations of frequencies and damping of the system are evaluated.Numerical time-variant example of rotating pipe conveying fluid illustrates the effectiveness and accuracy of this method.Furthermore,the proposed solution scheme is also applicable to other similar time-variant dynamical problems.

A new method for coseismic offset detection from GPS coordinate time series

Currently,the extraction of coseismic offset signals primarily relies on earthquake catalog data to determine the occurrence time of earthquakes.This is followed by the process of differencing the average GPS coordinate time series data,with a time interval of 3 to 5 days before and after the earthquake.In the face of the huge amount of GPS coordinate time series data today,the conventional approach of relying on earthquake catalog data to assist in obtaining coseismic offset signals has become increasingly burdensome.To address this problem,we propose a new method for automatically detecting coseismic offset signals in GPS coordinate time series without an extra earthquake catalog for reference.Firstly,we pre-process the GPS coordinate time series data for filtering out stations with significant observations missing and detecting and removing outliers.Secondly,we eliminate other signals and errors in the GPS coordinate time series,such as trend and seasonal signals,leaving the coseismic offset signals as the primary signal.The resulting coordinate time series is then modeled using the first-order difference and data stacking method.The modeling method enables automatic detection of the coseismic offset signals in the GPS coordinate time series.The aforementioned method is applied to automatically detect coseismic offset signals using simulated data and the Searles Valley GPS data in California,USA.The results demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed method,successfully detecting coseismic offsets from vast amounts of GPS coordinate time series data.

Reconstructing in vivo spatially offset Raman spectroscopy of human skin tissue using a GPU-accelerated Monte Carlo platform

As one type of spatially offset Raman spectroscopy(SORS), inverse SORS is particularly suited to in vivo biomedical measurements due to its ring-shaped illumination scheme. To explain inhomogeneous Raman scattering during in vivo inverse SORS measurements, the light–tissue interactions when excitation and regenerated Raman photons propagate in skin tissue were studied using Monte Carlo simulation. An eight-layered skin model was first built based on the latest transmission parameters. Then, an open-source platform, Monte Carlo e Xtreme(MCX), was adapted to study the distribution of 785 nm excitation photons inside the model with an inverse spatially shifted annular beam. The excitation photons were converted to emission photons by an inverse distribution method based on excitation flux with spatial offsets Δs of 1 mm, 2 mm, 3 mm and 5 mm. The intrinsic Raman spectra from separated skin layers were measured by continuous linear scanning to improve the simulation accuracy. The obtained results explain why the spectral detection depth gradually increases with increasing spatial offset, and address how the intrinsic Raman spectrum from deep skin layers is distorted by the reabsorption and scattering of the superficial tissue constituents. Meanwhile, it is demonstrated that the spectral contribution from subcutaneous fat will be improved when the offset increases to 5 mm, and the highest detection efficiency for dermal layer spectral detection could be achieved when Δs = 2 mm. Reasonably good matching between the calculated spectrum and the measured in vivo inverse SORS was achieved, thus demonstrating great utility of our modeling method and an approach to help understand the clinical measurements.

Assessment of the ballistic response of honeycomb sandwich structures subjected to offset and normal impact

In the present study,experimental and numerical investigations were carried out to examine the behavior of sandwich panels with honeycomb cores.The high velocity impact tests were carried out using a compressed air gun.A sharp conical nosed projectile was impacted normally and with some offset distance(20 mm and 40 mm).The deformation,failure mode and energy dissipation characteristics were obtained for both kinds of loading.Moreover,the explicit solver was run in Abaqus to create the finite element model.The numerically obtained test results were compared with the experimental to check the accuracy of the modelling.The numerical result was further employed to obtain strain energy dissipation in each element by externally running user-defined code in Abaqus.Furthermore,the influence of inscribe circle diameter and cell wall and face sheet thickness on the energy dissipation,deformation and failure mode was examined.The result found that ballistic resistance and deformation were higher against offset impact compared to the normal impact loading.Sandwich panel impacted at 40 mm offset distance required 3 m/s and 1.9 m/s more velocity than 0 and 20 mm offset distance.Also,increasing the face sheet and wall thickness had a positive impact on the ballistic resistance in terms of a higher ballistic limit and energy absorption.However,inscribe circle diameter had a negative influence on the ballistic resistance.Also,the geometrical parameters of the sandwich structure had a significant influence on the energy dissipation in the different deformation directions.The energy dissipation in plastic work was highest for circumferential direction,regardless of impact condition followed by tangential,radial and axial directions.