Time-variant fragility analysis of the bridge system considering time-varying dependence among typical component seismic demands

This paper presents a copula technique to develop time-variant seismic fragility curves for corroded bridges at the system level and considers the realistic time-varying dependence among component seismic demands. Based on material deterioration mechanisms and incremental dynamic analysis, the time-evolving seismic demands of components were obtained in the form of marginal probability distributions. The time-varying dependences among bridge components were then captured with the best fitting copula function, which was selected from the commonly used copula classes by the empirical distribution based analysis method. The system time-variant fragility curves at different damage states were developed and the effects of time-varying dependences among components on the bridge system fragility were investigated. The results indicate the time-varying dependence among components significantly affects the time-variant fragility of the bridge system. The copula technique captures the nonlinear dependence among component seismic demands accurately and easily by separating the marginal distributions and the dependence among them.

Multi-Step Clustering of Smart Meters Time Series:Application to Demand Flexibility Characterization of SME Customers

Customer segmentation according to load-shape profiles using smart meter data is an increasingly important application to vital the planning and operation of energy systems and to enable citizens’participation in the energy transition.This study proposes an innovative multi-step clustering procedure to segment customers based on load-shape patterns at the daily and intra-daily time horizons.Smart meter data is split between daily and hourly normalized time series to assess monthly,weekly,daily,and hourly seasonality patterns separately.The dimensionality reduction implicit in the splitting allows a direct approach to clustering raw daily energy time series data.The intraday clustering procedure sequentially identifies representative hourly day-unit profiles for each customer and the entire population.For the first time,a step function approach is applied to reduce time series dimensionality.Customer attributes embedded in surveys are employed to build external clustering validation metrics using Cramer’s V correlation factors and to identify statistically significant determinants of load-shape in energy usage.In addition,a time series features engineering approach is used to extract 16 relevant demand flexibility indicators that characterize customers and corresponding clusters along four different axes:available Energy(E),Temporal patterns(T),Consistency(C),and Variability(V).The methodology is implemented on a real-world electricity consumption dataset of 325 Small and Medium-sized Enterprise(SME)customers,identifying 4 daily and 6 hourly easy-to-interpret,well-defined clusters.The application of the methodology includes selecting key parameters via grid search and a thorough comparison of clustering distances and methods to ensure the robustness of the results.Further research can test the scalability of the methodology to larger datasets from various customer segments(households and large commercial)and locations with different weather and socioeconomic conditions.

A New Continuous-Production Lot-Size Model with Increasing Time-Varying Demand and Variable Rate of Production Considering Shortages

Here an optimal continuous Production Lot size(PLS) model is developed for deterio rating items with increasing time varying demand over a finite planning horizon.The production rate is dealt with as a decision variable.The deterioration rate is assumed to be a constant fraction of the on hand inventory level.Shortages are permitted in every production cycle and are not backlogged.Some properties for the optimal solution of the proposed model are shown.The solvting procedure is proposed to generate an optimal continuous production schedule. The corresponding models with no deterioration and no shortage are derived as the special cases.Numerical examples for illustrating the solvting procedure are employed for linearly increasing demand.

An Inventory Model for Deteriorating Items with Generalised Exponential Decreasing Demand, Constant Holding Cost and Time-Varying Deterioration Rate

In this present paper, an inventory model with a generalised exponential decreasing demand is considered. A numerical example is used to illustrate the application of the model. Sensitivity analysis of the optimal solution with respect to various parameters is carried out to see the effect of parameter changes on the solution.

Optimization method of urban rail train operational plan based on O-D time-varying demand

Purpose–Under the constraints of given passenger service level and coupling travel demand with train departure time,this study optimizes the train operational plan in an urban rail corridor to minimize the numbers of train trips and rolling stocks considering the time-varying demand of urban rail passenger flow.Design/methodology/approach–The authors optimize the train operational plan in a special network layout,i.e.an urban rail corridor with dead-end terminal yard,by decomposing it into two sub-problems:train timetable optimization and rolling stock circulation optimization.As for train timetable optimization,the authors propose a schedule-based passenger flow assignment method,construct the corresponding timetabling optimization model and design the bi-directional coordinated sequential optimization algorithm.For the optimization of rolling stock circulation,the authors construct the corresponding optimization assignment model and adopt the Hungary algorithm for solving the model.Findings–The case study shows that the train operational plan developed by the study’s approach meets requirements on the passenger service quality and reduces the operational cost to the maximum by minimizing the numbers of train trips and rolling stocks.Originality/value–The example verifies the efficiency of the model and algorithm.

Combined heuristics for determining order quantity under time-varying demands

The time-varying demands for a certain period are often assumed to be less than the basic economic order quantity （EOQ） so that total replenishment quantity rather than economic order quantity is normally considered by most of the heuristics. This acticle focuses on a combined heuristics method for determining order quantity under generalized time-varying demands. The independent policy （IP）, abnormal independent policy （AIP） and dependent policies are studied and compared. Using the concepts of normal/abnormal periods and the properties of dependent policies, a dependent policy-based heuristics （DPH） is proposed for solving the order quantity problems with a kind of time-varying demands pattern under which the first period is normal. By merging the Silver-Meal （S-M） heuristics and the dependent policy-based heuristics （DPH）, a combined heuristics （DPH/S-M） is developed for solving order quantity problems with generalized time-varying demands. The experimentation shows that （1） for the problem with one normal period, no matter which position the normal period stands, the DPH/S-M could not guarantee better than the S-M heuristics, however it is superior to the S-M heuristics in the case that the demands in the abnormal periods are in descending order, and （2） The DPH/S-M is superior to the S-M heuristics for problems with more than one normal period, and the more the number of normal periods, the greater the improvements.

An Inventory Model for Deteriorating Items with Exponential Declining Demand and Time-Varying Holding Cost

In the present paper, a total optimal cost of an inventory model with exponential declining demand and constant deterioration is considered. The time-varying holding cost is a linear function of time. Shortages are not allowed. The items (like food grains, fashion apparels and electronic equipments) have fixed shelf-life which decreases with time during the end of the season. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the model and the sensitivity analysis of various parameters is carried out.

Finite-time Prescribed Performance Time-Varying Formation Control for Second-Order Multi-Agent Systems With Non-Strict Feedback Based on a Neural Network Observer

This paper studies the problem of time-varying formation control with finite-time prescribed performance for nonstrict feedback second-order multi-agent systems with unmeasured states and unknown nonlinearities.To eliminate nonlinearities,neural networks are applied to approximate the inherent dynamics of the system.In addition,due to the limitations of the actual working conditions,each follower agent can only obtain the locally measurable partial state information of the leader agent.To address this problem,a neural network state observer based on the leader state information is designed.Then,a finite-time prescribed performance adaptive output feedback control strategy is proposed by restricting the sliding mode surface to a prescribed region,which ensures that the closed-loop system has practical finite-time stability and that formation errors of the multi-agent systems converge to the prescribed performance bound in finite time.Finally,a numerical simulation is provided to demonstrate the practicality and effectiveness of the developed algorithm.

Complementary-Label Adversarial Domain Adaptation Fault Diagnosis Network under Time-Varying Rotational Speed and Weakly-Supervised Conditions

Recent research in cross-domain intelligence fault diagnosis of machinery still has some problems,such as relatively ideal speed conditions and sample conditions.In engineering practice,the rotational speed of the machine is often transient and time-varying,which makes the sample annotation increasingly expensive.Meanwhile,the number of samples collected from different health states is often unbalanced.To deal with the above challenges,a complementary-label(CL)adversarial domain adaptation fault diagnosis network(CLADAN)is proposed under time-varying rotational speed and weakly-supervised conditions.In the weakly supervised learning condition,machine prior information is used for sample annotation via cost-friendly complementary label learning.A diagnosticmodel learning strategywith discretized category probabilities is designed to avoidmulti-peak distribution of prediction results.In adversarial training process,we developed virtual adversarial regularization(VAR)strategy,which further enhances the robustness of the model by adding adversarial perturbations in the target domain.Comparative experiments on two case studies validated the superior performance of the proposed method.

Research on Demand Response Potential of Adjustable Loads in Demand Response Scenarios

To address the issues of limited demand response data,low generalization of demand response potential evaluation,and poor demand response effect,the article proposes a demand response potential feature extraction and prediction model based on data mining and a demand response potential assessment model for adjustable loads in demand response scenarios based on subjective and objective weight analysis.Firstly,based on the demand response process and demand response behavior,obtain demand response characteristics that characterize the process and behavior.Secondly,establish a feature extraction and prediction model based on data mining,including similar day clustering,time series decomposition,redundancy processing,and data prediction.The predicted values of each demand response feature on the response day are obtained.Thirdly,the predicted data of various characteristics on the response day are used as demand response potential evaluation indicators to represent different demand response scenarios and adjustable loads,and a demand response potential evaluation model based on subjective and objective weight allocation is established to calculate the demand response potential of different adjustable loads in different demand response scenarios.Finally,the effectiveness of the method proposed in the article is verified through examples,providing a reference for load aggregators to formulate demand response schemes.

On the Application of Mixed Models of Probability and Convex Set for Time-Variant Reliability Analysis

In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems typically involve a complexmultilevel nested optimization problem,which can result in an enormous amount of computation.To this end,this paper studies the time-variant reliability evaluation of structures with stochastic and bounded uncertainties using a mixed probability and convex set model.In this method,the stochastic process of a limit-state function with mixed uncertain parameters is first discretized and then converted into a timeindependent reliability problem.Further,to solve the double nested optimization problem in hybrid reliability calculation,an efficient iterative scheme is designed in standard uncertainty space to determine the most probable point(MPP).The limit state function is linearized at these points,and an innovative random variable is defined to solve the equivalent static reliability analysis model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by two benchmark numerical examples and a practical engineering problem.

Semi-supervised learning based hybrid beamforming under time-varying propagation environments

Hybrid precoding is considered as a promising low-cost technique for millimeter wave(mm-wave)massive Multi-Input Multi-Output(MIMO)systems.In this work,referring to the time-varying propagation circumstances,with semi-supervised Incremental Learning(IL),we propose an online hybrid beamforming scheme.Firstly,given the constraint of constant modulus on analog beamformer and combiner,we propose a new broadnetwork-based structure for the design model of hybrid beamforming.Compared with the existing network structure,the proposed network structure can achieve better transmission performance and lower complexity.Moreover,to enhance the efficiency of IL further,by combining the semi-supervised graph with IL,we propose a hybrid beamforming scheme based on chunk-by-chunk semi-supervised learning,where only few transmissions are required to calculate the label and all other unlabelled transmissions would also be put into a training data chunk.Unlike the existing single-by-single approach where transmissions during the model update are not taken into the consideration of model update,all transmissions,even the ones during the model update,would make contributions to model update in the proposed method.During the model update,the amount of unlabelled transmissions is very large and they also carry some information,the prediction performance can be enhanced to some extent by these unlabelled channel data.Simulation results demonstrate the spectral efficiency of the proposed method outperforms that of the existing single-by-single approach.Besides,we prove the general complexity of the proposed method is lower than that of the existing approach and give the condition under which its absolute complexity outperforms that of the existing approach.

A Combination Prediction Model for Short Term Travel Demand of Urban Taxi

This study proposes a prediction model considering external weather and holiday factors to address the issue of accurately predicting urban taxi travel demand caused by complex data and numerous influencing factors.The model integrates the Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise(CEEMDAN)and Convolutional Long Short Term Memory Neural Network(ConvLSTM)to predict short-term taxi travel demand.The CEEMDAN decomposition method effectively decomposes time series data into a set of modal components,capturing sequence characteristics at different time scales and frequencies.Based on the sample entropy value of components,secondary processing of more complex sequence components after decomposition is employed to reduce the cumulative prediction error of component sequences and improve prediction efficiency.On this basis,considering the correlation between the spatiotemporal trends of short-term taxi traffic,a ConvLSTM neural network model with Long Short Term Memory(LSTM)time series processing ability and Convolutional Neural Networks(CNN)spatial feature processing ability is constructed to predict the travel demand for urban taxis.The combined prediction model is tested on a taxi travel demand dataset in a certain area of Beijing.The results show that the CEEMDAN-ConvLSTM prediction model outperforms the LSTM,Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model(ARIMA),CNN,and ConvLSTM benchmark models in terms of Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error(SMAPE),Root Mean Square Error(RMSE),Mean Absolute Error(MAE),and R2 metrics.Notably,the SMAPE metric exhibits a remarkable decline of 21.03%with the utilization of our proposed model.These results confirm that our study provides a highly accurate and valid model for taxi travel demand forecasting.

Singular spectrum analysis for the time-variable seasonal signals from GPS in Yunnan Province

Studying the seasonal deformation in GPS time series is important to interpreting geophysical contributors and identifying unmodeled and mismodeled seasonal signals.Traditional seasonal signal extraction used the least squares method,which models seasonal deformation as a constant seasonal amplitude and phase.However,the seasonal variations are not constant from year to year,and the seasonal amplitude and phase are time-variable.In order to obtain the time-variable seasonal signal in the GPS station coordinate time series,singular spectrum analysis(SSA)is conducted in this study.We firstly applied the SSA on simulated seasonal signals with different frequencies 1.00 cycle per year(cpy),1.04 cpy and with time-variable amplitude are superimposed.It was found that SSA can successfully obtain the seasonal variations with different frequencies and with time-variable amplitude superimposed.Then,SSA is carried out on the GPS observations in Yunnan Province.The results show that the time-variable amplitude seasonal signals are ubiquitous in Yunnan Province,and the timevariable amplitude change in 2019 in the region is extracted,which is further explained by the soil moisture mass loading and atmospheric pressure loading.After removing the two loading effects,the SSA obtained modulated seasonal signals which contain the obvious seasonal variations at frequency of 1.046 cpy,it is close with the GPS draconitic year,1.040 cpy.Hence,the time-variable amplitude changes in 2019 and the seasonal GPS draconitic year in the region could be discriminated successfully by SSA in Yunnan Province.

Time-dependent model for two-phase flow in ultra-high water-cut reservoirs:Time-varying permeability and relative permeability

For the ultra-high water-cut reservoirs,after long-term water injection exploitation,the physical properties of the reservoir change and the heterogeneity of the reservoir becomes increasingly severe,which further aggravates the spatial difference of the flow field.In this study,the displacement experiments were employed to investigate the variations in core permeability,porosity,and relative permeability after a large amount of water injection.A relative permeability endpoint model was proposed by utilizing the alternating conditional expectation(ACE)transformation to describe the variation in relative permeability based on the experimental data.Based on the time dependent models for permeability and relative permeability,the traditional oil-water two-phase model was improved and discretized using the mimetic finite difference method(MFD).The two cases were launched to confirm the validation of the proposed model.The impact of time-varying physical features on reservoir production performance was studied in a real water flooding reservoir.The experimental results indicate that the overall relative permeability curve shifts to the right as water injection increases.This shift corresponds to a transition towards a more hydrophilic wettability and a decrease in residual oil saturation.The endpoint model demonstrates excellent accuracy and can be applied to time-varying simulations of reservoir physics.The impact of variations in permeability and relative permeability on the reservoir production performance yields two distinct outcomes.The time-varying permeability of the reservoir results in intensified water channeling and poor development effects.On the other hand,the time-varying relative permeability enhances the oil phase seepage capacity,facilitating oil displacement.The comprehensive time-varying behavior is the result of the combined influence of these two parameters,which closely resemble the actual conditions observed in oil field exploitation.The time-varying simulation technique of reservoir physical properties proposed in this paper can continuously and stably characterize the dynamic changes of reservoir physical properties during water drive development.This approach ensures the reliability of the simulation results regarding residual oil distribution.

Nuclear magnetic resonance experiments on the time-varying law of oil viscosity and wettability in high-multiple waterflooding sandstone cores

A simulated oil viscosity prediction model is established according to the relationship between simulated oil viscosity and geometric mean value of T2spectrum,and the time-varying law of simulated oil viscosity in porous media is quantitatively characterized by nuclear magnetic resonance(NMR)experiments of high multiple waterflooding.A new NMR wettability index formula is derived based on NMR relaxation theory to quantitatively characterize the time-varying law of rock wettability during waterflooding combined with high-multiple waterflooding experiment in sandstone cores.The remaining oil viscosity in the core is positively correlated with the displacing water multiple.The remaining oil viscosity increases rapidly when the displacing water multiple is low,and increases slowly when the displacing water multiple is high.The variation of remaining oil viscosity is related to the reservoir heterogeneity.The stronger the reservoir homogeneity,the higher the content of heavy components in the remaining oil and the higher the viscosity.The reservoir wettability changes after water injection:the oil-wet reservoir changes into water-wet reservoir,while the water-wet reservoir becomes more hydrophilic;the degree of change enhances with the increase of displacing water multiple.There is a high correlation between the time-varying oil viscosity and the time-varying wettability,and the change of oil viscosity cannot be ignored.The NMR wettability index calculated by considering the change of oil viscosity is more consistent with the tested Amott(spontaneous imbibition)wettability index,which agrees more with the time-varying law of reservoir wettability.

General Lyapunov Stability and Its Application to Time-Varying Convex Optimization

In this article, a general Lyapunov stability theory of nonlinear systems is put forward and it contains asymptotic/finite-time/fast finite-time/fixed-time stability. Especially, a more accurate estimate of the settling-time function is exhibited for fixedtime stability, and it is still extraneous to the initial conditions.This can be applied to obtain less conservative convergence time of the practical systems without the information of the initial conditions. As an application, the given fixed-time stability theorem is used to resolve time-varying(TV) convex optimization problem.By the Newton's method, two classes of new dynamical systems are constructed to guarantee that the solution of the dynamic system can track to the optimal trajectory of the unconstrained and equality constrained TV convex optimization problems in fixed time, respectively. Without the exact knowledge of the time derivative of the cost function gradient, a fixed-time dynamical non-smooth system is established to overcome the issue of robust TV convex optimization. Two examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed TV convex optimization algorithms. Subsequently, the fixed-time stability theory is extended to the theories of predefined-time/practical predefined-time stability whose bound of convergence time can be arbitrarily given in advance, without tuning the system parameters. Under which, TV convex optimization problem is solved. The previous two examples are used to demonstrate the validity of the predefined-time TV convex optimization algorithms.

Optimal dispatching strategy for residential demand response considering load participation

To facilitate the coordinated and large-scale participation of residential flexible loads in demand response(DR),a load aggregator(LA)can integrate these loads for scheduling.In this study,a residential DR optimization scheduling strategy was formulated considering the participation of flexible loads in DR.First,based on the operational characteristics of flexible loads such as electric vehicles,air conditioners,and dishwashers,their DR participation,the base to calculate the compensation price to users,was determined by considering these loads as virtual energy storage.It was quantified based on the state of virtual energy storage during each time slot.Second,flexible loads were clustered using the K-means algorithm,considering the typical operational and behavioral characteristics as the cluster centroid.Finally,the LA scheduling strategy was implemented by introducing a DR mechanism based on the directrix load.The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed DR approach can effectively reduce peak loads and fill valleys,thereby improving the load management performance.

Stochastic programming based coordinated expansion planning of generation,transmission,demand side resources,and energy storage considering the DC transmission system

With the increasing penetration of wind and solar energies,the accompanying uncertainty that propagates in the system places higher requirements on the expansion planning of power systems.A source-grid-load-storage coordinated expansion planning model based on stochastic programming was proposed to suppress the impact of wind and solar energy fluctuations.Multiple types of system components,including demand response service entities,converter stations,DC transmission systems,cascade hydropower stations,and other traditional components,have been extensively modeled.Moreover,energy storage systems are considered to improve the accommodation level of renewable energy and alleviate the influence of intermittence.Demand-response service entities from the load side are used to reduce and move the demand during peak load periods.The uncertainties in wind,solar energy,and loads were simulated using stochastic programming.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed model is verified through numerical simulations.

Numerical Simulation of Slurry Diffusion in Fractured Rocks Considering a Time-Varying Viscosity

To analyze the effects of a time-varying viscosity on the penetration length of grouting,in this study cement slur-ries with varying water-cement ratios have been investigated using the Bingham’sfluidflow equation and a dis-crete element method.Afluid-solid coupling numerical model has been introduced accordingly,and its accuracy has been validated through comparison of theoretical and numerical solutions.For different fracture forms(a single fracture,a branch fracture,and a fracture network),the influence of the time-varying viscosity on the slurry length range has been investigated,considering the change in the fracture aperture.The results show that under different fracture forms and the same grouting process conditions,the influence of the time-varying viscosity on the seepage length is 0.350 m.