Practical operation and theoretical basis of difference-in-difference regression in science of science:The comparative trial on the scientific performance of Nobel laureates versus their coauthors

Purpose:In recent decades,with the availability of large-scale scientific corpus datasets,difference-in-difference(DID)is increasingly used in the science of science and bibliometrics studies.DID method outputs the unbiased estimation on condition that several hypotheses hold,especially the common trend assumption.In this paper,we gave a systematic demonstration of DID in the science of science,and the potential ways to improve the accuracy of DID method.Design/methodology/approach:At first,we reviewed the statistical assumptions,the model specification,and the application procedures of DID method.Second,to improve the necessary assumptions before conducting DID regression and the accuracy of estimation,we introduced some matching techniques serving as the pre-selecting step for DID design by matching control individuals who are equivalent to those treated ones on observational variables before the intervention.Lastly,we performed a case study to estimate the effects of prizewinning on the scientific performance of Nobel laureates,by comparing the yearly citation impact after the prizewinning year between Nobel laureates and their prizewinning-work coauthors.Findings:We introduced the procedures to conduct a DID estimation and demonstrated the effectiveness to use matching method to improve the results.As a case study,we found that there are no significant increases in citations for Nobel laureates compared to their prizewinning coauthors.Research limitations:This study ignored the rigorous mathematical deduction parts of DID,while focused on the practical parts.Practical implications:This work gives experimental practice and potential guidelines to use DID method in science of science and bibliometrics studies.Originality/value:This study gains insights into the usage of econometric tools in science of science.

On the Application of Mixed Models of Probability and Convex Set for Time-Variant Reliability Analysis

In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems typically involve a complexmultilevel nested optimization problem,which can result in an enormous amount of computation.To this end,this paper studies the time-variant reliability evaluation of structures with stochastic and bounded uncertainties using a mixed probability and convex set model.In this method,the stochastic process of a limit-state function with mixed uncertain parameters is first discretized and then converted into a timeindependent reliability problem.Further,to solve the double nested optimization problem in hybrid reliability calculation,an efficient iterative scheme is designed in standard uncertainty space to determine the most probable point(MPP).The limit state function is linearized at these points,and an innovative random variable is defined to solve the equivalent static reliability analysis model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by two benchmark numerical examples and a practical engineering problem.

Complementary-Label Adversarial Domain Adaptation Fault Diagnosis Network under Time-Varying Rotational Speed andWeakly-Supervised Conditions

Recent research in cross-domain intelligence fault diagnosis of machinery still has some problems,such as relatively ideal speed conditions and sample conditions.In engineering practice,the rotational speed of the machine is often transient and time-varying,which makes the sample annotation increasingly expensive.Meanwhile,the number of samples collected from different health states is often unbalanced.To deal with the above challenges,a complementary-label(CL)adversarial domain adaptation fault diagnosis network(CLADAN)is proposed under time-varying rotational speed and weakly-supervised conditions.In the weakly supervised learning condition,machine prior information is used for sample annotation via cost-friendly complementary label learning.A diagnosticmodel learning strategywith discretized category probabilities is designed to avoidmulti-peak distribution of prediction results.In adversarial training process,we developed virtual adversarial regularization(VAR)strategy,which further enhances the robustness of the model by adding adversarial perturbations in the target domain.Comparative experiments on two case studies validated the superior performance of the proposed method.

Finite-time Prescribed Performance Time-Varying Formation Control for Second-Order Multi-Agent Systems With Non-Strict Feedback Based on a Neural Network Observer

This paper studies the problem of time-varying formation control with finite-time prescribed performance for nonstrict feedback second-order multi-agent systems with unmeasured states and unknown nonlinearities.To eliminate nonlinearities,neural networks are applied to approximate the inherent dynamics of the system.In addition,due to the limitations of the actual working conditions,each follower agent can only obtain the locally measurable partial state information of the leader agent.To address this problem,a neural network state observer based on the leader state information is designed.Then,a finite-time prescribed performance adaptive output feedback control strategy is proposed by restricting the sliding mode surface to a prescribed region,which ensures that the closed-loop system has practical finite-time stability and that formation errors of the multi-agent systems converge to the prescribed performance bound in finite time.Finally,a numerical simulation is provided to demonstrate the practicality and effectiveness of the developed algorithm.

Numerical Simulation of Slurry Diffusion in Fractured Rocks Considering a Time-Varying Viscosity

To analyze the effects of a time-varying viscosity on the penetration length of grouting,in this study cement slur-ries with varying water-cement ratios have been investigated using the Bingham’sfluidflow equation and a dis-crete element method.Afluid-solid coupling numerical model has been introduced accordingly,and its accuracy has been validated through comparison of theoretical and numerical solutions.For different fracture forms(a single fracture,a branch fracture,and a fracture network),the influence of the time-varying viscosity on the slurry length range has been investigated,considering the change in the fracture aperture.The results show that under different fracture forms and the same grouting process conditions,the influence of the time-varying viscosity on the seepage length is 0.350 m.

Set-Membership Filtering Approach to Dynamic Event-Triggered Fault Estimation for a Class of Nonlinear Time-Varying Complex Networks

The present study addresses the problem of fault estimation for a specific class of nonlinear time-varying complex networks,utilizing an unknown-input-observer approach within the framework of dynamic event-triggered mechanism(DETM).In order to optimize communication resource utilization,the DETM is employed to determine whether the current measurement data should be transmitted to the estimator or not.To guarantee a satisfactory estimation performance for the fault signal,an unknown-input-observer-based estimator is constructed to decouple the estimation error dynamics from the influence of fault signals.The aim of this paper is to find the suitable estimator parameters under the effects of DETM such that both the state estimates and fault estimates are confined within two sets of closed ellipsoid domains.The techniques of recursive matrix inequality are applied to derive sufficient conditions for the existence of the desired estimator,ensuring that the specified performance requirements are met under certain conditions.Then,the estimator gains are derived by minimizing the ellipsoid domain in the sense of trace and a recursive estimator parameter design algorithm is then provided.Finally,a numerical example is conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the designed estimator.

Identification of time-varying system and energy-based optimization of adaptive control in seismically excited structure

The combination of structural health monitoring and vibration control is of great importance to provide components of smart structures.While synthetic algorithms have been proposed,adaptive control that is compatible with changing conditions still needs to be used,and time-varying systems are required to be simultaneously estimated with the application of adaptive control.In this research,the identification of structural time-varying dynamic characteristics and optimized simple adaptive control are integrated.First,reduced variations of physical parameters are estimated online using the multiple forgetting factor recursive least squares(MFRLS)method.Then,the energy from the structural vibration is simultaneously specified to optimize the control force with the identified parameters to be operational.Optimization is also performed based on the probability density function of the energy under the seismic excitation at any time.Finally,the optimal control force is obtained by the simple adaptive control(SAC)algorithm and energy coefficient.A numerical example and benchmark structure are employed to investigate the efficiency of the proposed approach.The simulation results revealed the effectiveness of the integrated online identification and optimal adaptive control in systems.

Time-varying parameters estimation with adaptive neural network EKF for missile-dual control system

In this paper, a filtering method is presented to estimate time-varying parameters of a missile dual control system with tail fins and reaction jets as control variables. In this method, the long-short-term memory(LSTM) neural network is nested into the extended Kalman filter(EKF) to modify the Kalman gain such that the filtering performance is improved in the presence of large model uncertainties. To avoid the unstable network output caused by the abrupt changes of system states,an adaptive correction factor is introduced to correct the network output online. In the process of training the network, a multi-gradient descent learning mode is proposed to better fit the internal state of the system, and a rolling training is used to implement an online prediction logic. Based on the Lyapunov second method, we discuss the stability of the system, the result shows that when the training error of neural network is sufficiently small, the system is asymptotically stable. With its application to the estimation of time-varying parameters of a missile dual control system, the LSTM-EKF shows better filtering performance than the EKF and adaptive EKF(AEKF) when there exist large uncertainties in the system model.

Time-variant fragility analysis of the bridge system considering time-varying dependence among typical component seismic demands

This paper presents a copula technique to develop time-variant seismic fragility curves for corroded bridges at the system level and considers the realistic time-varying dependence among component seismic demands. Based on material deterioration mechanisms and incremental dynamic analysis, the time-evolving seismic demands of components were obtained in the form of marginal probability distributions. The time-varying dependences among bridge components were then captured with the best fitting copula function, which was selected from the commonly used copula classes by the empirical distribution based analysis method. The system time-variant fragility curves at different damage states were developed and the effects of time-varying dependences among components on the bridge system fragility were investigated. The results indicate the time-varying dependence among components significantly affects the time-variant fragility of the bridge system. The copula technique captures the nonlinear dependence among component seismic demands accurately and easily by separating the marginal distributions and the dependence among them.

Resilient Time-Varying Formation-Tracking of Multi-UAV Systems Against Composite Attacks: A Two-Layered Framework

This paper studies the countermeasure design problems of distributed resilient time-varying formation-tracking control for multi-UAV systems with single-way communications against composite attacks,including denial-of-services(DoS)attacks,false-data injection attacks,camouflage attacks,and actuation attacks(AAs).Inspired by the concept of digital twin,a new two-layered protocol equipped with a safe and private twin layer(TL)is proposed,which decouples the above problems into the defense scheme against DoS attacks on the TL and the defense scheme against AAs on the cyber-physical layer.First,a topologyrepairing strategy against frequency-constrained DoS attacks is implemented via a Zeno-free event-triggered estimation scheme,which saves communication resources considerably.The upper bound of the reaction time needed to launch the repaired topology after the occurrence of DoS attacks is calculated.Second,a decentralized adaptive and chattering-relief controller against potentially unbounded AAs is designed.Moreover,this novel adaptive controller can achieve uniformly ultimately bounded convergence,whose error bound can be given explicitly.The practicability and validity of this new two-layered protocol are shown via a simulation example and a UAV swarm experiment equipped with both Ultra-WideBand and WiFi communication channels.

Adversarial Training-Aided Time-Varying Channel Prediction for TDD/FDD Systems

In this paper, a time-varying channel prediction method based on conditional generative adversarial network(CPcGAN) is proposed for time division duplexing/frequency division duplexing(TDD/FDD) systems. CPc GAN utilizes a discriminator to calculate the divergence between the predicted downlink channel state information(CSI) and the real sample distributions under a conditional constraint that is previous uplink CSI. The generator of CPcGAN learns the function relationship between the conditional constraint and the predicted downlink CSI and reduces the divergence between predicted CSI and real CSI.The capability of CPcGAN fitting data distribution can capture the time-varying and multipath characteristics of the channel well. Considering the propagation characteristics of real channel, we further develop a channel prediction error indicator to determine whether the generator reaches the best state. Simulations show that the CPcGAN can obtain higher prediction accuracy and lower system bit error rate than the existing methods under the same user speeds.

Robust Beamforming Under Channel Prediction Errors for Time-Varying MIMO System

The accuracy of acquired channel state information(CSI)for beamforming design is essential for achievable performance in multiple-input multiple-output(MIMO)systems.However,in a high-speed moving scene with time-division duplex(TDD)mode,the acquired CSI depending on the channel reciprocity is inevitably outdated,leading to outdated beamforming design and then performance degradation.In this paper,a robust beamforming design under channel prediction errors is proposed for a time-varying MIMO system to combat the degradation further,based on the channel prediction technique.Specifically,the statistical characteristics of historical channel prediction errors are exploited and modeled.Moreover,to deal with random error terms,deterministic equivalents are adopted to further explore potential beamforming gain through the statistical information and ultimately derive the robust design aiming at maximizing weighted sum-rate performance.Simulation results show that the proposed beamforming design can maintain outperformance during the downlink transmission time even when channels vary fast,compared with the traditional beamforming design.

GRACE time-variable gravity and its application to geoscience:Quantitative analysis of relevant literature

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment(GRACE)is the most important gravity satellite to date in human history.Since its launch in 2002,GRACE time-varying gravity has had an unprecedented impact on earth science and has generated revolutionary changes.Because of natural phenomena such as climate warming,glacial melting,sea level rise,and earthquakes,earth science research has become an increasingly popular discipline in recent years.This article summarizes the importance of GRACE time-varying gravity,its application to geoscience,and its development.We analyzed the historical development and current status of GRACE time-varying gravity as well as research hotspots by searching the literature in the core collection databases of the China National Knowledge Infrastructure and the Web of Science over the past 20 years.The CiteSpace and VOSviewer software packages were applied with reference to the principle of literature metrology.Our investigation and analysis of characteristic indexes,such as the numbers of publications,co-occurrence of keywords,and co-citation of documents,uncovered the wide application and promotion of gravity satellites,especially GRACE time-varying gravity,in earth science.The results showed that the number of publications addressing GRACE data and time-varying gravity theory is increasing annually and that the USA,China,and Germany are the main producers.The Chinese Academy of Sciences,the National Aeronautics and Space Administration of the United States,and the Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres rank among the top three institutions in the world in terms of producing the most publications on this topic.We found that GRACE time-varying gravity plays unique roles in measuring changes in terrestrial water storage changes,ice and snow melting and sea level changes,and(co)seismic gravity changes,as well as in promoting other disciplines.

Analytical Modeling and Mechanism Analysis of Time-Varying Excitation for Surface Defects in Rolling Element Bearings

Surface defects,including dents,spalls,and cracks,for rolling element bearings are the most common faults in rotating machinery.The accurate model for the time-varying excitation is the basis for the vibration mechanism analysis and fault feature extraction.However,in conventional investigations,this issue is not well and fully addressed from the perspective of theoretical analysis and physical derivation.In this study,an improved analytical model for time-varying displacement excitations(TVDEs)caused by surface defects is theoretically formulated.First and foremost,the physical mechanism for the effect of defect sizes on the physical process of rolling element-defect interaction is revealed.According to the physical interaction mechanism between the rolling element and different types of defects,the relationship between time-varying displacement pulse and defect sizes is further analytically derived.With the obtained time-varying displacement pulse,the dynamic model for the deep groove bearings considering the internal excitation caused by the surface defect is established.The nonlinear vibration responses and fault features induced by surface defects are analyzed using the proposed TVDE model.The results suggest that the presence of surface defects may result in the occurrence of the dual-impulse phenomenon,which can serve as indexes for surface-defect fault diagnosis.

Position Measurement Based Slave Torque Feedback Control for Teleoperation Systems With Time-Varying Communication Delays

Bilateral teleoperation system is referred to as a promising technology to extend human actions and intelligence to manipulating objects remotely.For the tracking control of teleoperation systems,velocity measurements are necessary to provide feedback information.However,due to hardware technology and cost constraints,the velocity measurements are not always available.In addition,the time-varying communication delay makes it challenging to achieve tracking task.This paper provides a solution to the issue of real-time tracking for teleoperation systems,subjected to unavailable velocity signals and time-varying communication delays.In order to estimate the velocity information,immersion and invariance(I&I)technique is employed to develop an exponential stability velocity observer.For the proposed velocity observer,a linear relationship between position and observation state is constructed,through which the need of solving partial differential and certain integral equations can be avoided.Meanwhile,the mean value theorem is exploited to separate the observation error terms,and hence,all functions in our observer can be analytically expressed.With the estimated velocity information,a slave-torque feedback control law is presented.A novel Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional is constructed to establish asymptotic tracking conditions.In particular,the relationship between the controller design parameters and the allowable maximum delay values is provided.Finally,simulation and experimental results reveal that the proposed velocity observer and controller can guarantee that the observation errors and tracking error converge to zero.

Time-varying seismic fragility analysis of durability damage of high-tensile reinforcement ECC bridge pier

The deterioration of the performance of offshore bridges is particularly prominent due to the complex natural environment,including the coupling effects of earthquake and seawater erosion.In particular,bridge piers are the main energy-consuming and load-bearing components,so that excellent seismic capacity of bridge piers is the key to avoiding bridge damage.Although earthquake resistant behavior of ordinary reinforced concrete bridge piers(ordinary pier)can be improved by increasing the section size and reinforcement ratio of piers,the improvement of the earthquake resistant behavior is limited.To further improve the earthquake resistant behavior of bridge piers,high-tensile reinforcement engineered cementitious composite(ECC)bridge piers are utilized and time-varying seismic fragility analysis are conducted in this study.The refined model of a bridge pier is built by OpenSees.First,the influence of ECC replacement height on pier curvature is analyzed to determine the reasonable ECC height.Then,the time-varying fragility analysis of high-tensile reinforcement ECC piers(ECC composite piers)with durability damage are evaluated considering the time-varying law of materials.Four damage states,slight damage,moderate damage,extensive damage and complete collapse,are utilized in the study.These fragility curves indicate the durability damage can debase the earthquake resistant behavior of piers continually,the exceedance probability of the same state of destruction increases with the increase of peak ground acceleration(PGA)and service time of pier.The results also indicate that the corrosion level of chloride ion to pier is small during the early service period,and the bridge pier vulnerable curve is similar to that of the new bridge pier.As the level of chlorine ion corrosion deepens,transcendental probability is increased.Compared with the ordinary pier,the exceedance probability in each limit state of ECC composite piers is significantly reduced.The proposed ECC composite pies leads to better realistic time-varying earthquake resistant behavior.

Time-varying gravity field model of Sichuan-Yunnan region based on the equivalent mass source model

High-precision time-varying gravity field is an effective way to study the internal mass movement and understanding the spatio-temporal evolution process of the geodynamic system.Compared to the satellite gravity measurement,the repeated terrestrial gravity observation can provide a more high-order signal related to the shallow crust and subsurface.However,the suitable and unified method for gravity model estimation is a key problem for further applications.In this study,we introduce the spherical hexahedron element to simulate the field source mass and forward model the change of gravity field located at the Sichuan-Yunnan region(99—104°E,23—29°N)in the four epochs from 2015 to 2017.Compared to the experimental results based on Slepian or spherical harmonics frequency domain method,this alternative approach is suitable for constructing the equivalent mass source model of regional-scale gravity data,by introducing the first-order smooth prior condition of gravity time-varying signal to suppress the high-frequency component of the signal.The results can provide a higher spatial resolution reference for regional gravity field modeling in the Sichuan-Yunnan region.

Simultaneous resonance of an axially moving ferromagnetic thin plate under a line load in a time-varying magnetic field

In this paper,the simultaneous resonance of a ferromagnetic thin plate in a time-varying magnetic field,having axial speed and being subjected to a periodic line load,is studied.Based on the large deflection theory of thin plates and electromagnetic field theory,the nonlinear vibration differential equation of the plate is obtained by using the Hamilton′s principle and the Galerkin method.Then the boundary condition in which the longer opposite sides are clamped and hinged is considered.The dimensionless nonlinear differential equations are solved by using the method of multiple scales,and the analytical solution is given.In addition,the stability analysis is also carried out by using Lyapunov stability theory.Through numerical analysis,the variation curves of system resonance amplitude with frequency tuning parameter,magnetic field strength and external excitation amplitude are obtained.Different parameters that have significant effects on the response of the system,such as the thickness,the axial velocity,the magnetic field intensity,the position,and the frequency of external excitation,are considered and analyzed.The results show that the system has multiple solution regions and obvious nonlinear coupled characteristics.

Numerical and experimental studies on the effectiveness of time-varying electromagnetic fields in reducing electron density

When an aircraft or a hypersonic vehicle re-enters the atmosphere,the plasma sheath generated can severely attenuate electromagnetic wave signals,causing the problem of communication blackout.A new method based on time-varying E×B fields is proposed to improve on the existing static E×B fields and mitigate the radio blackout problem.The use of the existing method is limited by the invalid electron density reduction resulting from current density j=0 A m^(-2)in plasma beyond the Debye radius.The most remarkable feature is the introduction of a time-varying electric field to increase the current density in the plasma to overcome the Debye shielding effect on static electric field.Meanwhile,a magnetic field with the same frequency and phase as the electric field is applied to ensure that the electromagnetic force is always acting on the plasma in one direction.In order to investigate the effect of time-varying E×B fields on the plasma electron density distribution,two directions of voltage application are considered in numerical simulation.The simulation results indicate that different voltage application methods generate electromagnetic forces in different directions in the plasma,resulting in repulsion and vortex effects in the plasma.A comparison of the vortex effect and repulsion effect reveals that the vortex effect is better at reducing the electron density.The local plasma electron density can be reduced by more than 80%through the vortex effect,and the dimensions of the area of reduced electron density reach approximately 6 cm×4 cm,meeting the requirements of electromagnetic wave propagation.Besides,the vortex effect of reducing the electron density in RAM-C(radio attenuation measurements for the study of communication blackout)reentry at an altitude of 40 km is analyzed.On the basis of the simulation results,an experiment based on a rectangular-window discharge device is proposed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the vortex effect.Experimental results show that time-varying E×B fields can reduce the electron density in plasma of 3 cm thickness by 80%at B=0.07 T and U_(0)=1000 V.The investigations confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method in terms of reducing the required strength of the magnetic field and overcoming the Debye shielding effect.Additionally,the method is expected to provide a new way to apply a magnetic window in engineering applications.

Policy Iteration for Optimal Control of Discrete-Time Time-Varying Nonlinear Systems

Aimed at infinite horizon optimal control problems of discrete time-varying nonlinear systems,in this paper,a new iterative adaptive dynamic programming algorithm,which is the discrete-time time-varying policy iteration(DTTV)algorithm,is developed.The iterative control law is designed to update the iterative value function which approximates the index function of optimal performance.The admissibility of the iterative control law is analyzed.The results show that the iterative value function is non-increasingly convergent to the Bellman-equation optimal solution.To implement the algorithm,neural networks are employed and a new implementation structure is established,which avoids solving the generalized Bellman equation in each iteration.Finally,the optimal control laws for torsional pendulum and inverted pendulum systems are obtained by using the DTTV policy iteration algorithm,where the mass and pendulum bar length are permitted to be time-varying parameters.The effectiveness of the developed method is illustrated by numerical results and comparisons.