Stability Prediction in Smart Grid Using PSO Optimized XGBoost Algorithm with Dynamic Inertia Weight Updation

Prediction of stability in SG(Smart Grid)is essential in maintaining consistency and reliability of power supply in grid infrastructure.Analyzing the fluctuations in power generation and consumption patterns of smart cities assists in effectively managing continuous power supply in the grid.It also possesses a better impact on averting overloading and permitting effective energy storage.Even though many traditional techniques have predicted the consumption rate for preserving stability,enhancement is required in prediction measures with minimized loss.To overcome the complications in existing studies,this paper intends to predict stability from the smart grid stability prediction dataset using machine learning algorithms.To accomplish this,pre-processing is performed initially to handle missing values since it develops biased models when missing values are mishandled and performs feature scaling to normalize independent data features.Then,the pre-processed data are taken for training and testing.Following that,the regression process is performed using Modified PSO(Particle Swarm Optimization)optimized XGBoost Technique with dynamic inertia weight update,which analyses variables like gamma(G),reaction time(tau1–tau4),and power balance(p1–p4)for providing effective future stability in SG.Since PSO attains optimal solution by adjusting position through dynamic inertial weights,it is integrated with XGBoost due to its scalability and faster computational speed characteristics.The hyperparameters of XGBoost are fine-tuned in the training process for achieving promising outcomes on prediction.Regression results are measured through evaluation metrics such as MSE(Mean Square Error)of 0.011312781,MAE(Mean Absolute Error)of 0.008596322,and RMSE(Root Mean Square Error)of 0.010636156 and MAPE(Mean Absolute Percentage Error)value of 0.0052 which determine the efficacy of the system.

Modeling and simulation of a time-varying inertia aircraft in aerial refueling

Studied in this paper is dynamic modeling and simulation application of the receiver aircraft with the time-varying mass and inertia property in an integrated simulation environment which includes two other significant factors, i.e., a hose-drogue assembly dynamic model with the variable-length property and the wind effect due to the tanker＇s trailing vortices. By extending equations of motion of a fixed weight aircraft derived by Lewis et al., a new set of equations of motion for a receiver in aerial refueling is derived. The equations include the time-varying mass and inertia property due to fuel transfer and the fuel consumption by engines, and the fuel tanks have a rectangle shape rather than a mass point. They are derived in terms of the translational and rotational position and velocity of the receiver with respect to an inertial reference frame. A linear quadratic regulator （LQR） controller is designed based on a group of linearized equations under the initial receiver mass condition. The equations of motion of the receiver with a LQR con- troller are implemented in the integrated simulation environment for autonomous approaching and station-keeping of the receiver in simulations.

Time-variant fragility analysis of the bridge system considering time-varying dependence among typical component seismic demands

This paper presents a copula technique to develop time-variant seismic fragility curves for corroded bridges at the system level and considers the realistic time-varying dependence among component seismic demands. Based on material deterioration mechanisms and incremental dynamic analysis, the time-evolving seismic demands of components were obtained in the form of marginal probability distributions. The time-varying dependences among bridge components were then captured with the best fitting copula function, which was selected from the commonly used copula classes by the empirical distribution based analysis method. The system time-variant fragility curves at different damage states were developed and the effects of time-varying dependences among components on the bridge system fragility were investigated. The results indicate the time-varying dependence among components significantly affects the time-variant fragility of the bridge system. The copula technique captures the nonlinear dependence among component seismic demands accurately and easily by separating the marginal distributions and the dependence among them.

Finite-time Prescribed Performance Time-Varying Formation Control for Second-Order Multi-Agent Systems With Non-Strict Feedback Based on a Neural Network Observer

This paper studies the problem of time-varying formation control with finite-time prescribed performance for nonstrict feedback second-order multi-agent systems with unmeasured states and unknown nonlinearities.To eliminate nonlinearities,neural networks are applied to approximate the inherent dynamics of the system.In addition,due to the limitations of the actual working conditions,each follower agent can only obtain the locally measurable partial state information of the leader agent.To address this problem,a neural network state observer based on the leader state information is designed.Then,a finite-time prescribed performance adaptive output feedback control strategy is proposed by restricting the sliding mode surface to a prescribed region,which ensures that the closed-loop system has practical finite-time stability and that formation errors of the multi-agent systems converge to the prescribed performance bound in finite time.Finally,a numerical simulation is provided to demonstrate the practicality and effectiveness of the developed algorithm.

Complementary-Label Adversarial Domain Adaptation Fault Diagnosis Network under Time-Varying Rotational Speed and Weakly-Supervised Conditions

Recent research in cross-domain intelligence fault diagnosis of machinery still has some problems,such as relatively ideal speed conditions and sample conditions.In engineering practice,the rotational speed of the machine is often transient and time-varying,which makes the sample annotation increasingly expensive.Meanwhile,the number of samples collected from different health states is often unbalanced.To deal with the above challenges,a complementary-label(CL)adversarial domain adaptation fault diagnosis network(CLADAN)is proposed under time-varying rotational speed and weakly-supervised conditions.In the weakly supervised learning condition,machine prior information is used for sample annotation via cost-friendly complementary label learning.A diagnosticmodel learning strategywith discretized category probabilities is designed to avoidmulti-peak distribution of prediction results.In adversarial training process,we developed virtual adversarial regularization(VAR)strategy,which further enhances the robustness of the model by adding adversarial perturbations in the target domain.Comparative experiments on two case studies validated the superior performance of the proposed method.

The Nature of Inertia Explained Using the Field Theory

Analysis of free fall and acceleration of the mass on the Earth shows that using abstract entities such as absolute space or inertial space to explain mass dynamics leads to the violation of the principle of action and reaction. Many scientists including Newton, Mach, and Einstein recognized that inertial force has no reaction that originates on mass. Einstein calls the lack of reaction to the inertial force a serious criticism of the space-time continuum concept. Presented is the hypothesis that the inertial force develops in an interaction of two masses via the force field. The inertial force created by such a field has reaction force. The dynamic gravitational field predicted is strong enough to be detected in the laboratory. This article describes the laboratory experiment which can prove or disprove the hypothesis of the dynamic gravitational field. The inertial force, calculated using the equation for the dynamic gravitational field, agrees with the behavior of inertial force observed in the experiments on the Earth. The movement of the planets in our solar system calculated using that equation is the same as that calculated using Newton’s method. The space properties calculated by the candidate equation explain the aberration of light and the results of light propagation experiments. The dynamic gravitational field can explain the discrepancy between the observed velocity of stars in the galaxy and those predicted by Newton’s theory of gravitation without the need for the dark matter hypothesis.

On the Application of Mixed Models of Probability and Convex Set for Time-Variant Reliability Analysis

In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems typically involve a complexmultilevel nested optimization problem,which can result in an enormous amount of computation.To this end,this paper studies the time-variant reliability evaluation of structures with stochastic and bounded uncertainties using a mixed probability and convex set model.In this method,the stochastic process of a limit-state function with mixed uncertain parameters is first discretized and then converted into a timeindependent reliability problem.Further,to solve the double nested optimization problem in hybrid reliability calculation,an efficient iterative scheme is designed in standard uncertainty space to determine the most probable point(MPP).The limit state function is linearized at these points,and an innovative random variable is defined to solve the equivalent static reliability analysis model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by two benchmark numerical examples and a practical engineering problem.

Inertial Entropy and External Validation of Clusterings

Axiomatization of Shannon entropy is a subject that has received lots of attention in the information theory literature.While Shannon entropy is defined on probability distribution,we define a new type of entropy on the set of partitions of finite subsets of metric spaces,which has a rich algebraic structure as a partially ordered set.We propose an axiomatization of an entropy-like measure of partitions of sets of objects located in metric spaces,and we derive an analytic expression of this new type of entropy referred to as inertial entropy.This approach starts with the notion of inertia of a partition and includes a study of the behavior of the sum of square errors of a partition.In this context,we characterize the chain of partitions produced by the Ward hierarchical clustering method.Starting from inertial entropies of partitions,we introduce conditional entropies which,in turn,generate metrics on partitions of finite sets.These metrics are used as external validation tools for clusterings of labeled data sets.The metric generated by inertial entropy can be used to validate data clustering for labeled data sets.This type of validation aims to determine to what extend labeling of the data coincides with the clustering obtained algorithmically,and we obtain a high degree of consistency of the data labeling with the results of several hierarchical clusterings.

Modeling and analysis of an inextensible beam with inertial and geometric nonlinearities

The present study focuses on an inextensible beam and its relevant inertia nonlinearity,which are essentially distinct from the commonly treated extensible beam that is dominated by the geometric nonlinearity.Explicitly,by considering a weakly constrained or free end(in the longitudinal direction),the inextensibility assumption and inertial nonlinearity(with and without an initial curvature)are introduced.For a straight beam,a multi-scale analysis of hardening/softening dynamics reveals the effects of the end stiffness/mass.Extending the straight scenario,a refined inextensible curved beam model is further proposed,accounting for both its inertial nonlinearity and geometric nonlinearity induced by the initial curvature.The numerical results for the frequency responses are also presented to illustrate the dynamic effects of the initial curvature and axial constraint,i.e.,the end mass and end stiffness.

Singular spectrum analysis for the time-variable seasonal signals from GPS in Yunnan Province

Studying the seasonal deformation in GPS time series is important to interpreting geophysical contributors and identifying unmodeled and mismodeled seasonal signals.Traditional seasonal signal extraction used the least squares method,which models seasonal deformation as a constant seasonal amplitude and phase.However,the seasonal variations are not constant from year to year,and the seasonal amplitude and phase are time-variable.In order to obtain the time-variable seasonal signal in the GPS station coordinate time series,singular spectrum analysis(SSA)is conducted in this study.We firstly applied the SSA on simulated seasonal signals with different frequencies 1.00 cycle per year(cpy),1.04 cpy and with time-variable amplitude are superimposed.It was found that SSA can successfully obtain the seasonal variations with different frequencies and with time-variable amplitude superimposed.Then,SSA is carried out on the GPS observations in Yunnan Province.The results show that the time-variable amplitude seasonal signals are ubiquitous in Yunnan Province,and the timevariable amplitude change in 2019 in the region is extracted,which is further explained by the soil moisture mass loading and atmospheric pressure loading.After removing the two loading effects,the SSA obtained modulated seasonal signals which contain the obvious seasonal variations at frequency of 1.046 cpy,it is close with the GPS draconitic year,1.040 cpy.Hence,the time-variable amplitude changes in 2019 and the seasonal GPS draconitic year in the region could be discriminated successfully by SSA in Yunnan Province.

Time-dependent model for two-phase flow in ultra-high water-cut reservoirs:Time-varying permeability and relative permeability

For the ultra-high water-cut reservoirs,after long-term water injection exploitation,the physical properties of the reservoir change and the heterogeneity of the reservoir becomes increasingly severe,which further aggravates the spatial difference of the flow field.In this study,the displacement experiments were employed to investigate the variations in core permeability,porosity,and relative permeability after a large amount of water injection.A relative permeability endpoint model was proposed by utilizing the alternating conditional expectation(ACE)transformation to describe the variation in relative permeability based on the experimental data.Based on the time dependent models for permeability and relative permeability,the traditional oil-water two-phase model was improved and discretized using the mimetic finite difference method(MFD).The two cases were launched to confirm the validation of the proposed model.The impact of time-varying physical features on reservoir production performance was studied in a real water flooding reservoir.The experimental results indicate that the overall relative permeability curve shifts to the right as water injection increases.This shift corresponds to a transition towards a more hydrophilic wettability and a decrease in residual oil saturation.The endpoint model demonstrates excellent accuracy and can be applied to time-varying simulations of reservoir physics.The impact of variations in permeability and relative permeability on the reservoir production performance yields two distinct outcomes.The time-varying permeability of the reservoir results in intensified water channeling and poor development effects.On the other hand,the time-varying relative permeability enhances the oil phase seepage capacity,facilitating oil displacement.The comprehensive time-varying behavior is the result of the combined influence of these two parameters,which closely resemble the actual conditions observed in oil field exploitation.The time-varying simulation technique of reservoir physical properties proposed in this paper can continuously and stably characterize the dynamic changes of reservoir physical properties during water drive development.This approach ensures the reliability of the simulation results regarding residual oil distribution.

Nuclear magnetic resonance experiments on the time-varying law of oil viscosity and wettability in high-multiple waterflooding sandstone cores

A simulated oil viscosity prediction model is established according to the relationship between simulated oil viscosity and geometric mean value of T2spectrum,and the time-varying law of simulated oil viscosity in porous media is quantitatively characterized by nuclear magnetic resonance(NMR)experiments of high multiple waterflooding.A new NMR wettability index formula is derived based on NMR relaxation theory to quantitatively characterize the time-varying law of rock wettability during waterflooding combined with high-multiple waterflooding experiment in sandstone cores.The remaining oil viscosity in the core is positively correlated with the displacing water multiple.The remaining oil viscosity increases rapidly when the displacing water multiple is low,and increases slowly when the displacing water multiple is high.The variation of remaining oil viscosity is related to the reservoir heterogeneity.The stronger the reservoir homogeneity,the higher the content of heavy components in the remaining oil and the higher the viscosity.The reservoir wettability changes after water injection:the oil-wet reservoir changes into water-wet reservoir,while the water-wet reservoir becomes more hydrophilic;the degree of change enhances with the increase of displacing water multiple.There is a high correlation between the time-varying oil viscosity and the time-varying wettability,and the change of oil viscosity cannot be ignored.The NMR wettability index calculated by considering the change of oil viscosity is more consistent with the tested Amott(spontaneous imbibition)wettability index,which agrees more with the time-varying law of reservoir wettability.

General Lyapunov Stability and Its Application to Time-Varying Convex Optimization

In this article, a general Lyapunov stability theory of nonlinear systems is put forward and it contains asymptotic/finite-time/fast finite-time/fixed-time stability. Especially, a more accurate estimate of the settling-time function is exhibited for fixedtime stability, and it is still extraneous to the initial conditions.This can be applied to obtain less conservative convergence time of the practical systems without the information of the initial conditions. As an application, the given fixed-time stability theorem is used to resolve time-varying(TV) convex optimization problem.By the Newton's method, two classes of new dynamical systems are constructed to guarantee that the solution of the dynamic system can track to the optimal trajectory of the unconstrained and equality constrained TV convex optimization problems in fixed time, respectively. Without the exact knowledge of the time derivative of the cost function gradient, a fixed-time dynamical non-smooth system is established to overcome the issue of robust TV convex optimization. Two examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed TV convex optimization algorithms. Subsequently, the fixed-time stability theory is extended to the theories of predefined-time/practical predefined-time stability whose bound of convergence time can be arbitrarily given in advance, without tuning the system parameters. Under which, TV convex optimization problem is solved. The previous two examples are used to demonstrate the validity of the predefined-time TV convex optimization algorithms.

Numerical Simulation of Slurry Diffusion in Fractured Rocks Considering a Time-Varying Viscosity

To analyze the effects of a time-varying viscosity on the penetration length of grouting,in this study cement slur-ries with varying water-cement ratios have been investigated using the Bingham’sfluidflow equation and a dis-crete element method.Afluid-solid coupling numerical model has been introduced accordingly,and its accuracy has been validated through comparison of theoretical and numerical solutions.For different fracture forms(a single fracture,a branch fracture,and a fracture network),the influence of the time-varying viscosity on the slurry length range has been investigated,considering the change in the fracture aperture.The results show that under different fracture forms and the same grouting process conditions,the influence of the time-varying viscosity on the seepage length is 0.350 m.

Adaptive Event-Triggered Time-Varying Output Group Formation Containment Control of Heterogeneous Multiagent Systems

In this paper,a class of time-varying output group formation containment control problem of general linear hetero-geneous multiagent systems(MASs)is investigated under directed topology.The MAS is composed of a number of tracking leaders,formation leaders and followers,where two different types of leaders are used to provide reference trajectories for movement and to achieve certain formations,respectively.Firstly,compen-sators are designed whose states are estimations of tracking lead-ers,based on which,a controller is developed for each formation leader to accomplish the expected formation.Secondly,two event-triggered compensators are proposed for each follower to evalu-ate the state and formation information of the formation leaders in the same group,respectively.Subsequently,a control protocol is designed for each follower,utilizing the output information,to guide the output towards the convex hull generated by the forma-tion leaders within the group.Next,the triggering sequence in this paper is decomposed into two sequences,and the inter-event intervals of these two triggering conditions are provided to rule out the Zeno behavior.Finally,a numerical simulation is intro-duced to confirm the validity of the proposed results.

Moments of inertia of triaxial nuclei in covariant density functional theory

The covariant density functional theory(CDFT)and five-dimensional collective Hamiltonian(5DCH)are used to analyze the experimental deformation parameters and moments of inertia(MoIs)of 12 triaxial nuclei as extracted by Allmond and Wood[J.M.Allmond and J.L.Wood,Phys.Lett.B 767,226(2017)].We find that the CDFT MoIs are generally smaller than the experimental values but exhibit qualitative consistency with the irrotational flow and experimental data for the relative MoIs,indicating that the intermediate axis exhibites the largest MoI.Additionally,it is found that the pairing interaction collapse could result in nuclei behaving as a rigid-body flow,as exhibited in the^(186-192)Os case.Furthermore,by incorporating enhanced CDFT MoIs(factor of f≈1.55)into the 5DCH,the experimental low-lying energy spectra and deformation parameters are reproduced successfully.Compared with both CDFT and the triaxial rotor model,the 5DCH demonstrates superior agreement with the experimental deformation parameters and low-lying energy spectra,respectively,emphasizing the importance of considering shape fluctuations.

Set-Membership Filtering Approach to Dynamic Event-Triggered Fault Estimation for a Class of Nonlinear Time-Varying Complex Networks

The present study addresses the problem of fault estimation for a specific class of nonlinear time-varying complex networks,utilizing an unknown-input-observer approach within the framework of dynamic event-triggered mechanism(DETM).In order to optimize communication resource utilization,the DETM is employed to determine whether the current measurement data should be transmitted to the estimator or not.To guarantee a satisfactory estimation performance for the fault signal,an unknown-input-observer-based estimator is constructed to decouple the estimation error dynamics from the influence of fault signals.The aim of this paper is to find the suitable estimator parameters under the effects of DETM such that both the state estimates and fault estimates are confined within two sets of closed ellipsoid domains.The techniques of recursive matrix inequality are applied to derive sufficient conditions for the existence of the desired estimator,ensuring that the specified performance requirements are met under certain conditions.Then,the estimator gains are derived by minimizing the ellipsoid domain in the sense of trace and a recursive estimator parameter design algorithm is then provided.Finally,a numerical example is conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the designed estimator.

Privacy Preserving Distributed Bandit Residual Feedback Online Optimization Over Time-Varying Unbalanced Graphs

This paper considers the distributed online optimization(DOO) problem over time-varying unbalanced networks, where gradient information is explicitly unknown. To address this issue, a privacy-preserving distributed online one-point residual feedback(OPRF) optimization algorithm is proposed. This algorithm updates decision variables by leveraging one-point residual feedback to estimate the true gradient information. It can achieve the same performance as the two-point feedback scheme while only requiring a single function value query per iteration. Additionally, it effectively eliminates the effect of time-varying unbalanced graphs by dynamically constructing row stochastic matrices. Furthermore, compared to other distributed optimization algorithms that only consider explicitly unknown cost functions, this paper also addresses the issue of privacy information leakage of nodes. Theoretical analysis demonstrate that the method attains sublinear regret while protecting the privacy information of agents. Finally, numerical experiments on distributed collaborative localization problem and federated learning confirm the effectiveness of the algorithm.

Identification of time-varying system and energy-based optimization of adaptive control in seismically excited structure

The combination of structural health monitoring and vibration control is of great importance to provide components of smart structures.While synthetic algorithms have been proposed,adaptive control that is compatible with changing conditions still needs to be used,and time-varying systems are required to be simultaneously estimated with the application of adaptive control.In this research,the identification of structural time-varying dynamic characteristics and optimized simple adaptive control are integrated.First,reduced variations of physical parameters are estimated online using the multiple forgetting factor recursive least squares(MFRLS)method.Then,the energy from the structural vibration is simultaneously specified to optimize the control force with the identified parameters to be operational.Optimization is also performed based on the probability density function of the energy under the seismic excitation at any time.Finally,the optimal control force is obtained by the simple adaptive control(SAC)algorithm and energy coefficient.A numerical example and benchmark structure are employed to investigate the efficiency of the proposed approach.The simulation results revealed the effectiveness of the integrated online identification and optimal adaptive control in systems.

Mach’s Principle Revised: Is the Inertia, and also Gravitational Interaction of Bodies, Determined by Their Long-Range Gravitational Interaction with Distant Matter in the Universe?

The work analyzes the basic assumption in Mach’s principle, namely that the inertia of material bodies is determined by their gravitational interaction with distant masses in the universe. However, while Mach’s principle is based on the so-called “long-range gravitational interaction” characterized by an infinitely large propagation velocity, our study is based on a “modified” long-range principle, assuming a very large but finite propagation velocity of the gravitational interaction between local material objects and distant matter. Thus, it is postulated that there are two types of gravitational interaction—short-range gravitational interaction between local objects and long-range gravitational interaction between local objects and distant matter in the universe, which are characterized by different propagation speeds, but with the same gravitational constant. On the basis of the modified long-range principle, a model of distant matter is built in the form of a hollow spherical layer with negligible thickness. The phenomenological assumption is made that the movement with acceleration of the local reference frame (RF) is related to a change in the spherically symmetric distribution of the lines of gravitational interaction of this RF with distant matter, which is expressed in a corresponding asymmetric distribution of the effective mass density on the hollow sphere. A simplified (idealized) model of the effective change of the hollow sphere of distant matter by cutting off separate segments of the sphere is proposed. On the basis of the model, the possibility of representing the inertial effects in three simplest types of reference frames through a corresponding gravitational interaction is considered: 1) inertial RF;2) RF moving in a straight line with constant acceleration;3) RF rotating with constant angular velocity. Expressions were obtained for the gravitational accelerations acting on the test body located inside the hollow sphere with a corresponding change (“cutting”). It is concluded that these accelerations can in a first approximation represent the inertial accelerations of the main types noted above. It is shown that in order to obtain reasonable values of the truncation parameters of the hollow sphere, it is necessary to assume that the gravitational interaction inside this sphere is not of the Newtonian type, i.e. the same depends on the distance not according to the law 1/r2, but according to modified law with a non-integer (fractional) exponent. This law corresponds to a fractal structure of the source of attraction inside the truncated sphere of distant matter. The issue of the possibility of the supposed modified long-range interaction is briefly discussed on the basis of a comparison of the finding a connection with the lines of force of the same with the “cosmic strings” assumed by a number of researchers, along which corresponding excitations (waves, particles) moving at super-light speed. The work advances the idea of the presence of unity and at the same time oppositeness of the inertia of material objects and the known gravitational interaction between them, which are generated by the properties of symmetry of the long-range gravitational interaction. Moreover, while the inertia of the bodies is due to the violation of this symmetry caused by their movement with acceleration, the gravitational interaction between the bodies is due to the aspiration to restore the symmetry of a far-reaching gravitational interaction, which is disturbed by the presence of local material bodies. In the conclusion of the work, the important physico-philosophical significance of Mach’s principle is emphasized, expressed in the understanding that not only the world of microscopic objects (“micro-world”), but also the world of huge cosmic objects (“mega-world”) can have a corresponding impact on our “macroscopic” world.