A bearing fault diagnosis method based on the Markov transitionfield(MTF)and SEnet(SE)-IShufflenetV2 model is proposed in this paper due to the problems of complex working conditions,low fault diagnosis accuracy,and poo...A bearing fault diagnosis method based on the Markov transitionfield(MTF)and SEnet(SE)-IShufflenetV2 model is proposed in this paper due to the problems of complex working conditions,low fault diagnosis accuracy,and poor generalization of rolling bearing.Firstly,MTF is used to encode one-dimensional time series vibration sig-nals and convert them into time-dependent and unique two-dimensional feature images.Then,the generated two-dimensional dataset is fed into the SE-IShufflenetV2 model for training to achieve fault feature extraction and classification.This paper selects the bearing fault datasets from Case Western Reserve University and Paderborn University to experimentally verify the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method.The generalization performance of the proposed method is tested under the variable load condition and different signal-to-noise ratios(SNRs).The experimental results show that the average accuracy of the proposed method under different working conditions is 99.2%without adding noise.The accuracy under different working conditions from 0 to 1 HP is 100%.When the SNR is 0 dB,the average accuracy of the proposed method can still reach 98.7%under varying working conditions.Therefore,the bearing fault diagnosis method proposed in this paper is characterized by high accuracy,strong anti-noise ability,and generalization.Moreover,the proposed method can also overcome the influence of variable working conditions on diagnosis accuracy,providing method support for the accurate diagnosis of bearing faults under strong noise and variable working conditions.展开更多
This research paper addresses a topic of interest to many researchers and engineers due to its effective applications in various industrial areas.It focuses on the thermoelastic laminated beam model with nonlinear str...This research paper addresses a topic of interest to many researchers and engineers due to its effective applications in various industrial areas.It focuses on the thermoelastic laminated beam model with nonlinear structural damping,nonlinear time-varying delay,and microtemperature effects.Our primary goal is to establish the stability of the solution.To achieve this,and under suitable hypotheses,we demonstrate energy decay and construct a Lyapunov functional that leads to our results.展开更多
目的基于Markov模型评价肺结节低剂量螺旋CT(LDCT)筛查的卫生经济学。方法利用2021年—2023年北京市某三甲医院的肺结节LDCT筛查数据和部分国外临床研究数据,采用成本效用分析方法,通过增量成本效用比(ICUR)确定优势筛查策略;使用R语言...目的基于Markov模型评价肺结节低剂量螺旋CT(LDCT)筛查的卫生经济学。方法利用2021年—2023年北京市某三甲医院的肺结节LDCT筛查数据和部分国外临床研究数据,采用成本效用分析方法,通过增量成本效用比(ICUR)确定优势筛查策略;使用R语言获得转移概率参数,利用TreeAge Pro 2011软件构建Markov模型。假设以我国10万名55岁及以上人群为肺结节筛查对象,模拟其疾病发展情况,并通过敏感性分析评价该模型的稳定性。结果成本效用分析显示,该模型经20次循环后,LDCT筛查策略的总成本为3543088618元,相较于不筛查策略的总成本增加了784130651元,额外获得了7996个质量调整生命年(QALY),每获得一个QALY需多花费98059.77元。采用WHO卫生经济学评价标准,LDCT筛查策略的ICUR大于1倍人均国内生产总值(GDP)但小于3倍人均GDP,为优势策略。敏感性分析显示,各变量在其敏感性分析范围内无论如何变化,都不会对ICUR产生较大影响,表明该模型具有较好的稳定性。结论在55岁及以上人群中开展每年一次肺结节LDCT筛查的ICUR小于3倍人均GDP,具有一定的经济学效用,该筛查策略有利于肺癌的“早发现、早诊断、早治疗”。展开更多
This paper presents a copula technique to develop time-variant seismic fragility curves for corroded bridges at the system level and considers the realistic time-varying dependence among component seismic demands. Bas...This paper presents a copula technique to develop time-variant seismic fragility curves for corroded bridges at the system level and considers the realistic time-varying dependence among component seismic demands. Based on material deterioration mechanisms and incremental dynamic analysis, the time-evolving seismic demands of components were obtained in the form of marginal probability distributions. The time-varying dependences among bridge components were then captured with the best fitting copula function, which was selected from the commonly used copula classes by the empirical distribution based analysis method. The system time-variant fragility curves at different damage states were developed and the effects of time-varying dependences among components on the bridge system fragility were investigated. The results indicate the time-varying dependence among components significantly affects the time-variant fragility of the bridge system. The copula technique captures the nonlinear dependence among component seismic demands accurately and easily by separating the marginal distributions and the dependence among them.展开更多
In this paper, the problem of exponential synchronization of complex dynamical networks with Markovian jumping parameters using sampled-data and Mode-dependent probabilistic time-varying coupling delays is investigate...In this paper, the problem of exponential synchronization of complex dynamical networks with Markovian jumping parameters using sampled-data and Mode-dependent probabilistic time-varying coupling delays is investigated. The sam- pling period is assumed to be time-varying and bounded. The information of probability distribution of the time-varying delay is considered and transformed into parameter matrices of the transferred complex dynamical network model. Based on the condition, the design method of the desired sampled data controller is proposed. By constructing a new Lyapunov functional with triple integral terms, delay-distribution-dependent exponential synchronization criteria are derived in the form of linear matrix inequalities. Finally, two numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.展开更多
This paper proposes a Markov-switching copula model to examine the presence of regime change in the time-varying dependence structure between oil price changes and stock market returns in six GCC countries. The margin...This paper proposes a Markov-switching copula model to examine the presence of regime change in the time-varying dependence structure between oil price changes and stock market returns in six GCC countries. The marginal distributions are assumed to follow a long-memory model while the copula parameters are supposed to evolve according to the Markov-switching process. Furthermore, we estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) based on the proposed approach. The empirical results provide evidence of three regime changes, representing precrisis, financial crisis and post-crisis, in the dependence structure between energy and GCC stock markets. In particular, in the pre- and post-crisis regimes, there is no dependence, while in the crisis regime, there is significant tail dependence. For OPEC countries, we find lower tail dependence whereas in non-OPEC countries, we see upper tail dependence. VaR experiments show that the Markov-switching time- varying copula model performs better than the time-varying copula model.展开更多
基金supported by Hebei Natural Science Foundation under Grant No.E2024402079Key Laboratory of Intelligent Industrial Equipment Technology of Hebei Province(Hebei University of Engineering)under Grant No.202206.
文摘A bearing fault diagnosis method based on the Markov transitionfield(MTF)and SEnet(SE)-IShufflenetV2 model is proposed in this paper due to the problems of complex working conditions,low fault diagnosis accuracy,and poor generalization of rolling bearing.Firstly,MTF is used to encode one-dimensional time series vibration sig-nals and convert them into time-dependent and unique two-dimensional feature images.Then,the generated two-dimensional dataset is fed into the SE-IShufflenetV2 model for training to achieve fault feature extraction and classification.This paper selects the bearing fault datasets from Case Western Reserve University and Paderborn University to experimentally verify the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method.The generalization performance of the proposed method is tested under the variable load condition and different signal-to-noise ratios(SNRs).The experimental results show that the average accuracy of the proposed method under different working conditions is 99.2%without adding noise.The accuracy under different working conditions from 0 to 1 HP is 100%.When the SNR is 0 dB,the average accuracy of the proposed method can still reach 98.7%under varying working conditions.Therefore,the bearing fault diagnosis method proposed in this paper is characterized by high accuracy,strong anti-noise ability,and generalization.Moreover,the proposed method can also overcome the influence of variable working conditions on diagnosis accuracy,providing method support for the accurate diagnosis of bearing faults under strong noise and variable working conditions.
文摘This research paper addresses a topic of interest to many researchers and engineers due to its effective applications in various industrial areas.It focuses on the thermoelastic laminated beam model with nonlinear structural damping,nonlinear time-varying delay,and microtemperature effects.Our primary goal is to establish the stability of the solution.To achieve this,and under suitable hypotheses,we demonstrate energy decay and construct a Lyapunov functional that leads to our results.
文摘目的基于Markov模型评价肺结节低剂量螺旋CT(LDCT)筛查的卫生经济学。方法利用2021年—2023年北京市某三甲医院的肺结节LDCT筛查数据和部分国外临床研究数据,采用成本效用分析方法,通过增量成本效用比(ICUR)确定优势筛查策略;使用R语言获得转移概率参数,利用TreeAge Pro 2011软件构建Markov模型。假设以我国10万名55岁及以上人群为肺结节筛查对象,模拟其疾病发展情况,并通过敏感性分析评价该模型的稳定性。结果成本效用分析显示,该模型经20次循环后,LDCT筛查策略的总成本为3543088618元,相较于不筛查策略的总成本增加了784130651元,额外获得了7996个质量调整生命年(QALY),每获得一个QALY需多花费98059.77元。采用WHO卫生经济学评价标准,LDCT筛查策略的ICUR大于1倍人均国内生产总值(GDP)但小于3倍人均GDP,为优势策略。敏感性分析显示,各变量在其敏感性分析范围内无论如何变化,都不会对ICUR产生较大影响,表明该模型具有较好的稳定性。结论在55岁及以上人群中开展每年一次肺结节LDCT筛查的ICUR小于3倍人均GDP,具有一定的经济学效用,该筛查策略有利于肺癌的“早发现、早诊断、早治疗”。
基金Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.51808376
文摘This paper presents a copula technique to develop time-variant seismic fragility curves for corroded bridges at the system level and considers the realistic time-varying dependence among component seismic demands. Based on material deterioration mechanisms and incremental dynamic analysis, the time-evolving seismic demands of components were obtained in the form of marginal probability distributions. The time-varying dependences among bridge components were then captured with the best fitting copula function, which was selected from the commonly used copula classes by the empirical distribution based analysis method. The system time-variant fragility curves at different damage states were developed and the effects of time-varying dependences among components on the bridge system fragility were investigated. The results indicate the time-varying dependence among components significantly affects the time-variant fragility of the bridge system. The copula technique captures the nonlinear dependence among component seismic demands accurately and easily by separating the marginal distributions and the dependence among them.
基金Project supported by the NBHM Research Project (Grant Nos.2/48(7)/2012/NBHM(R.P.)/R and D II/12669)
文摘In this paper, the problem of exponential synchronization of complex dynamical networks with Markovian jumping parameters using sampled-data and Mode-dependent probabilistic time-varying coupling delays is investigated. The sam- pling period is assumed to be time-varying and bounded. The information of probability distribution of the time-varying delay is considered and transformed into parameter matrices of the transferred complex dynamical network model. Based on the condition, the design method of the desired sampled data controller is proposed. By constructing a new Lyapunov functional with triple integral terms, delay-distribution-dependent exponential synchronization criteria are derived in the form of linear matrix inequalities. Finally, two numerical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.
文摘This paper proposes a Markov-switching copula model to examine the presence of regime change in the time-varying dependence structure between oil price changes and stock market returns in six GCC countries. The marginal distributions are assumed to follow a long-memory model while the copula parameters are supposed to evolve according to the Markov-switching process. Furthermore, we estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) based on the proposed approach. The empirical results provide evidence of three regime changes, representing precrisis, financial crisis and post-crisis, in the dependence structure between energy and GCC stock markets. In particular, in the pre- and post-crisis regimes, there is no dependence, while in the crisis regime, there is significant tail dependence. For OPEC countries, we find lower tail dependence whereas in non-OPEC countries, we see upper tail dependence. VaR experiments show that the Markov-switching time- varying copula model performs better than the time-varying copula model.
