Time-varying parameters estimation with adaptive neural network EKF for missile-dual control system

In this paper, a filtering method is presented to estimate time-varying parameters of a missile dual control system with tail fins and reaction jets as control variables. In this method, the long-short-term memory(LSTM) neural network is nested into the extended Kalman filter(EKF) to modify the Kalman gain such that the filtering performance is improved in the presence of large model uncertainties. To avoid the unstable network output caused by the abrupt changes of system states,an adaptive correction factor is introduced to correct the network output online. In the process of training the network, a multi-gradient descent learning mode is proposed to better fit the internal state of the system, and a rolling training is used to implement an online prediction logic. Based on the Lyapunov second method, we discuss the stability of the system, the result shows that when the training error of neural network is sufficiently small, the system is asymptotically stable. With its application to the estimation of time-varying parameters of a missile dual control system, the LSTM-EKF shows better filtering performance than the EKF and adaptive EKF(AEKF) when there exist large uncertainties in the system model.

IDENTIFICATION OF TIME-VARYING MODAL PARAMETERS USING LINEAR TIME-FREQUENCY REPRESENTATION

A new method of parameter identification based on linear time-frequencyrepresentation and Hubert transform is proposed to identity modal parameters of linear time-varyingsystems from measured vibration responses. Using Gabor expansion and synthesis theory, measuredresponses are represented in the time-frequency domain and modal components are reconstructed bytime-frequency filtering. The Hilbert transform is applied to obtain time histories of the amplitudeand phase angle of each modal component, from which time-varying frequencies and damping ratios areidentified. The proposed method has been demonstrated with a numerical example in which a lineartime-varying system of two degrees of freedom is used to validate the identification scheme based ontime-frequency representation. Simulation results have indicated that time-frequency representationpresents an effective tool for modal parameter identification of time-varying systems.

Adaptive Containment Control for Fractional-Order Nonlinear Multi-Agent Systems With Time-Varying Parameters

This paper investigates adaptive containment control for a class of fractional-order multi-agent systems(FOMASs)with time-varying parameters and disturbances.By using the bounded estimation method,the difficulty generated by the timevarying parameters and disturbances is overcome.The command filter is introduced to solve the complexity problem inherent in adaptive backstepping control.Meanwhile,in order to eliminate the effect of filter errors,a novel distributed error compensating scheme is constructed,in which only the local information from the neighbor agents is utilized.Then,a distributed adaptive containment control scheme for FOMASs is developed based on backstepping to guarantee that the outputs of all the followers are steered to the convex hull spanned by the leaders.Based on the extension of Barbalat's lemma to fractional-order integrals,it can be proven that the containment errors and the compensating signals have asymptotic convergence.Finally,three simulation examples are given to show the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed control method.

Identification of Time-Varying Modal Parameters for Thermo-Elastic Structure Subject to Unsteady Heating

A time-varying modal parameter identification method combined with Bayesian information criterion(BIC)and grey correlation analysis(GCA)is presented for a kind of thermo-elastic structures with sparse natural frequencies and subject to an unsteady temperature field.To demonstrate the method,the thermo-elastic structure to be identified is taken as a simply-supported beam with an axially movable boundary and subject to both random excitation and an unsteady temperature field,and the dynamic outputs of the beam are first simulated as the measured data for the identification.Then,an improved time-varying autoregressive(TVAR)model is generated from the simulated input and output of the system.The time-varying coefficients of the TVAR model are expanded as a finite set of time basis functions that facilitate the time-varying coefficients to be time-invariant.According to the BIC for preliminarily determining the scope of the order number,the grey system theory is introduced to determine the order of TVAR and the dimension of the basis functions simultaneously via the absolute grey correlation degree(AGCD).Finally,the time-varying instantaneous frequencies of the system are estimated by using the recursive least squares method.The identified results are capable of tracking the slow time-varying natural frequencies with high accuracy no matter for noise-free or noisy estimation.

Optimal Parameter Estimation of Transmission Line Using Chaotic Initialized Time-Varying PSO Algorithm

Transmission line is a vital part of the power system that connects two major points,the generation,and the distribution.For an efficient design,stable control,and steady operation of the power system,adequate knowledge of the transmission line parameters resistance,inductance,capacitance,and conductance is of great importance.These parameters are essential for transmission network expansion planning in which a new parallel line is needed to be installed due to increased load demand or the overhead line is replaced with an underground cable.This paper presents a method to optimally estimate the parameters using the input-output quantities i.e.,voltages,currents,and power factor of the transmission line.The equivalentπ-network model is used and the terminal data i.e.,sending-end and receiving-end quantities are assumed as available measured data.The parameter estimation problem is converted to an optimization problem by formulating an error-minimizing objective function.An improved particle swarm optimization(PSO)in terms of time-varying control parameters and chaos-based initialization is used to optimally estimate the line parameters.Two cases are considered for parameter estimation,the first case is when the line conductance is neglected and in the second case,the conductance is considered into account.The results obtained by the improved algorithm are compared with the standard version of the algorithm,firefly algorithm and artificial bee colony algorithm for 30 number of trials.It is concluded that the improved algorithm is tremendously sufficient in estimating the line parameters in both cases validated by low error values and statistical analysis,comparatively.

TECHNICAL STABILITY OF NONLINEAR TIME-VARYING SYSTEMS WITH SMALL PARAMETERS

Technical stability:allowing quantitative estimation of trajectory behavior of a dynamical system over a given time interval was considered. Based on a differential comparison principle and a basic monotonicity condition, technical stability relative to certain prescribed state constraint sets of a class of nonlinear time-varying systems with small parameters was analyzed by means of vector Liapunov function method. Explicit criteria of technical stability are established in terms of coefficients of the system under consideration. Conditions under which the technical stability of the system can be derived from its reduced linear time-varying (LTV) system were further examined, as well as a condition for linearization approach to technical stability of general nonlinear systems. Also, a simple algebraic condition of exponential asymptotic stability of LTV systems is presented. Two illustrative examples are given to demonstrate the availability of the presently proposed method.

Effects of NaCl Stress on Chlorophyll Fluorescence Parameters in Cinnamomum japonicum var. chenii

[ Objective ] Study on the changes of chlorophyll fluorescence parameters in Cinnamomumjaponicum var. chenii under NaCl stress. [ Method ] The seedling growth increment, chlorophyll content and chlorophyll fluorescence parameters in leaves of 1-year old Cinnamomum japonicum var. chenii were investigated in field experiment. [ Result] Under NaC1 stress, seedling growth increment reduced and the chlorophyll content decreased to a stable value ; changes of Fv/Fm and Fv/Fo showed identical increasing trend and double peak type. With the aggravation of salt stress, most variations were observed in Fo, correlations among chlorophyll fluorescence parameters presented ＂rise-drop＂ trend （in.the treatment of 7 g/L NaCl）. [ Conclusion] Cirmamomum japonicum vat. chenii is endowed with strong salt resistance and wide adaptability.

“双支柱”政策调控与企业金融资产配置时变关系研究:基于TVP-SV-VAR模型的实证检验

金融科技发展和市场制度变革给传统金融体系带来的巨大冲击,使得“双支柱”政策调控的有效性面临严峻考验。借助TVP-SV-VAR模型,实证检验“双支柱”政策调控对企业金融资产配置的动态脉冲效应。研究表明,货币政策和宏观审慎政策的调控效果呈现出阶段性的演化特征,二者的协同效应能够有效抑制企业金融资产的过度配置。相比制度环境冲击,“双支柱”政策调控在面对金融环境冲击时表现出更强的作用效果和力度。进一步研究发现,“双支柱”政策通过资本流动管理、资产价格稳定和金融风险缓释途径影响企业金融资产配置,且对流动性与非流动性金融资产配置的作用效果存在显著差异。研究结论为理解实体企业金融化和完善金融市场制度提供了新的理论视角,也为政府相关部门依据金融环境和制度环境进行“双支柱”政策调控的动态调整提供决策依据。

Precision motion control for electro-hydraulic axis systems under unknown time-variant parameters and disturbances

This article focuses on asymptotic precision motion control for electro-hydraulic axis systems under unknown time-variant parameters,mismatched and matched disturbances.Different from the traditional adaptive results that are applied to dispose of unknown constant parameters only,the unique feature is that an adaptive-gain nonlinear term is introduced into the control design to handle unknown time-variant parameters.Concurrently both mismatched and matched disturbances existing in electro-hydraulic axis systems can also be addressed in this way.With skillful integration of the backstepping technique and the adaptive control,a synthesized controller framework is successfully developed for electro-hydraulic axis systems,in which the coupled interaction between parameter estimation and disturbance estimation is avoided.Accordingly,this designed controller has the capacity of low-computation costs and simpler parameter tuning when compared to the other ones that integrate the adaptive control and observer/estimator-based technique to dividually handle parameter uncertainties and disturbances.Also,a nonlinear filter is designed to eliminate the“explosion of complexity”issue existing in the classical back-stepping technique.The stability analysis uncovers that all the closed-loop signals are bounded and the asymptotic tracking performance is also assured.Finally,contrastive experiment results validate the superiority of the developed method as well.

A Bayesian model calibration framework for stochastic compartmental models with both time-varying and timeinvariant parameters

We consider state and parameter estimation for compartmental models having both timevarying and time-invariant parameters.In this manuscript,we first detail a general Bayesian computational framework as a continuation of our previous work.Subsequently,this framework is specifically tailored to the susceptible-infectious-removed(SIR)model which describes a basic mechanism for the spread of infectious diseases through a system of coupled nonlinear differential equations.The SIR model consists of three states,namely,the susceptible,infectious,and removed compartments.The coupling among these states is controlled by two parameters,the infection rate and the recovery rate.The simplicity of the SIR model and similar compartmental models make them applicable to many classes of infectious diseases.However,the combined assumption of a deterministic model and time-invariance among the model parameters are two significant impediments which critically limit their use for long-term predictions.The tendency of certain model parameters to vary in time due to seasonal trends,non-pharmaceutical interventions,and other random effects necessitates a model that structurally permits the incorporation of such time-varying effects.Complementary to this,is the need for a robust mechanism for the estimation of the parameters of the resulting model from data.To this end,we consider an augmented state vector,which appends the time-varying parameters to the original system states whereby the time evolution of the time-varying parameters are driven by an artificial noise process in a standard manner.Distinguishing between time-varying and time-invariant parameters in this fashion limits the introduction of artificial dynamics into the system,and provides a robust,fully Bayesian approach for estimating the timeinvariant system parameters as well as the elements of the process noise covariance matrix.This computational framework is implemented by leveraging the robustness of the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm permits the estimation of time-invariant parameters while nested nonlinear filters concurrently perform the joint estimation of the system states and time-varying parameters.We demonstrate performance of the framework by first considering a series of examples using synthetic data,followed by an exposition on public health data collected in the province of Ontario.

基于MeltFlow-VAR的Ti2AlNb合金铸锭熔炼工艺研究

在Ti2AlNb合金的熔炼过程中,成分均匀性受稳弧电流及周期、熔炼电流的影响波动范围较大,本文采用MeltFlow-VAR模拟软件对Ti2AlNb合金的熔炼流程进行了精确的模拟分析。在此基础上,我们确立了合理的熔炼电流、稳弧电流以及周期等关键工艺参数,以指导实际生产操作,显著提升了生产过程的可控性。所生产Ti2AlNb合金铸锭中Nb元素的分布呈现出均匀状态,且其化学成分的波动范围保持在较低水平。

铁矿石价格、国际航运与中国股票市场间的时变溢出效应——来自TVP-VAR-DY模型的证据

采用时频参数向量自回归(TVP-VAR)连通性方法,使用2017年1月4日至2023年3月6日的日度数据探讨铁矿石价格、国际航运与中国股票市场间的时变溢出效应。实证结果表明:国际航运是最强烈的溢出效应;中国股票市场是溢出效应的传导因素;铁矿石价格是主要的接收者。整个溢出效应是时变的,在危机时期溢出效应显著增强,在特殊时期溢出与接收关系会发生短暂的改变。

Identifi cation of model structure parameters via combination of AFMM and ARX from seismic response data

To identify the model structure parameters in shaking table tests from seismic response, especially from time- varying response records, this paper presents a new methodology by combining the online recursive Adaptive Forgetting through Multiple Models （AFMM） and offtine Auto-Regression with eXogenous variables （ARX） model. First, the AFMM is employed to detect whether the response of model structure is time-invariant or time-varying when subjected to strong motions. Second, if the response is time-invariant, the modal parameters are identified from the entire response record, such as the acceleration time-history using the ARX model. If the response is time-varying, the acceleration record is divided into three segments according to the accurate time-varying points detected by AFMM, and parameters are identified by only using the tail segment data, which is time-invariant and suited for analysis by the ARX model. Finally, the changes in dynamic properties due to various strong motions are obtained using the presented methodology. The feasibility and advantages of the method are demonstrated by identifying the modal parameters of a 12-story reinforced concrete （RC） frame structure in a shaking table test.

Synchronization-based approach for parameter identification in delayed chaotic network

This paper introduces an adaptive procedure for the problem of synchronization and parameter identification for chaotic networks with time-varying delay by combining adaptive control and linear feedback. In particular, we consider that the equations xi（t） （for i = r＋ 1, r＋2,... ,n） can be expressed by the former xi（t） （for i=1,2,...,r）, which is not the same as the previous equation. This approach is also able to track changes in the operating parameters of chaotic networks rapidly and the speed of synchronization and parameter estimation can be adjusted. In addition, this method is quite robust against the effect of slight noise and the estimated value of a parameter fluctuates around the correct value.

Markov-Switching Time-Varying Copula Modeling of Dependence Structure between Oil and GCC Stock Markets

This paper proposes a Markov-switching copula model to examine the presence of regime change in the time-varying dependence structure between oil price changes and stock market returns in six GCC countries. The marginal distributions are assumed to follow a long-memory model while the copula parameters are supposed to evolve according to the Markov-switching process. Furthermore, we estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) based on the proposed approach. The empirical results provide evidence of three regime changes, representing precrisis, financial crisis and post-crisis, in the dependence structure between energy and GCC stock markets. In particular, in the pre- and post-crisis regimes, there is no dependence, while in the crisis regime, there is significant tail dependence. For OPEC countries, we find lower tail dependence whereas in non-OPEC countries, we see upper tail dependence. VaR experiments show that the Markov-switching time- varying copula model performs better than the time-varying copula model.

Improved delay-dependent globally asymptotic stability of delayed uncertain recurrent neural networks with Markovian jumping parameters

In this paper, we have improved delay-dependent stability criteria for recurrent neural networks with a delay varying over a range and Markovian jumping parameters. The criteria improve over some previous ones in that they have fewer matrix variables yet less conservatism. In addition, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the applicability of the result using the linear matrix inequality toolbox in MATLAB.

Fixed-Time Adaptive Time-Varying Matrix Projective Synchronization of Time-Delayed Chaotic Systems with Different Dimensions

This paper deals with the fixed-time adaptive time-varying matrix projective synchronization(ATVMPS)of different dimensional chaotic systems(DDCSs)with time delays and unknown parameters.Firstly,to estimate the unknown parameters,adaptive parameter updated laws are designed.Secondly,to realize the fixed-time ATVMPS of the time-delayed DDCSs,an adaptive delay-unrelated controller is designed,where time delays of chaotic systems are known or unknown.Thirdly,some simple fixed-time ATVMPS criteria are deduced,and the rigorous proof is provided by employing the inequality technique and Lyapunov theory.Furthermore,the settling time of fixed-time synchronization(Fix-TS)is obtained,which depends only on controller parameters and system parameters and is independent of the system’s initial states.Finally,simulation examples are presented to validate the theoretical analysis.

Impact of Composts Maturity on Growth and Agronomic Parameters of Maize (<i>Zea mays</i>)

Several methods have been developed in the literature which allow the maturity of composts to be assessed before it is used in agriculture. The objective of this study is to assess the maturity of the composts produced at the platform of the NGO ENPRO in Lomé on the growth and agronomic parameters of maize (Zea mays L., var. IKENE). To do so, three types of compost (gargabe, fruit waste, animal litter) were made for at least 3 months. The chemical analysis, phytotoxicity and agronomic tests carried out made it possible to assess the maturity of these composts. Indeed, the evolution of the C/N ratio, of the electrical conductivity, the phytotoxicity tests and the growth parameters of the composts show that the composts N°1 and N°2 are mature at the end of the 3rd month of composting while the compost N°3 can only be considered mature at the end of the 5th month of composting. But, with a yield of 2.39 ± 0.28 t/ha and a mass of 1000 grains of 346 ± 4 g, the treatment at 5 t/ha of compost N°3, has the best agronomic parameters compared to other types of compost and treatment without organic amendment. These results also show that compost with a high electrical conductivity has an inhibitory effect on the growth of corn plants (Zea mays L., var. IKENE). Basic chemical analysis, phytotoxicity tests and height growth of maize (Zea mays L., var. IKENE) are relatively efficient methods for evaluating the maturity of composts.

Correction of Time-varying PMU Phase Angle Deviation with Unknown Transmission Line Parameters

Phasor measurement units(PMUs)provide useful data for real-time monitoring of the smart grid.However,there may be time-varying deviation in phase angle differences(PADs)between both ends of the transmission line(TL),which may deteriorate application performance based on PMUs.To address that,this paper proposes two robust methods of correcting time-varying PAD deviation with unknown parameters of TL(ParTL).First,the phenomena of time-varying PAD deviation observed from field PMU data are presented.Two general formulations for PAD estimation are then established.To simplify the formulations,estimation of PADs is converted into the optimal problem with a single ParTL as the variable,yielding a linear estimation of PADs.The latter is used by second-order Taylor series expansion to estimate PADs accurately.To reduce the impact of possible abnormal amplitude data in field data,the IGG(Institute of Geodesy&Geophysics,Chinese Academy of Sciences)weighting function is adopted.Results using both simulated and field data verify the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed methods.

Adaptive Time-Frequency Distribution Based on Time-Varying Autoregressive and Its Application to Machine Fault Diagnosis

The time-varying autoregressive （TVAR） modeling of a non-stationary signal is studied. In the proposed method, time-varying parametric identification of a non-stationary signal can be translated into a linear time-invariant problem by introducing a set of basic functions. Then, the parameters are estimated by using a recursive least square algorithm with a forgetting factor and an adaptive time-frequency distribution is achieved. The simulation results show that the proposed approach is superior to the short-time Fourier transform and Wigner distribution. And finally, the proposed method is applied to the fault diagnosis of a bearing , and the experiment result shows that the proposed method is effective in feature extraction.