Effect of Uncertainty of the Pre-Exponential Factor on Kinetic Parameters of Hydrocarbon Generation from Organic Matter and its Geological Applications

The source rock sample of the Shahejie Formation （upper Es4） in Jiyang Sag was pyrolyzed under open system with the Rock-Eval-lI apparatus, and then kinetic model parameters were calibrated for investigating the effect of uncertainty of pre-exponential factors on kinetic parameters and geological applications, where the parallel first-order reaction rate model with an average pre- exponential factor and discrete distribution activity energies was used. The results indicate that when the pre-exponential factor changes from low to high, an extreme value for residual errors occurs. And with the increasing pre-exponential factor, the distribution shape of activation energies are nearly the same, but the values of activation energies move higher integrally, and the average activation energy increases about 12 kJ/mol for every 10-fold of the pre-exponential factors. Extrapolating the geological heating rate of 3.3 ~C/Ma, the results show that with the increases in pre-exponential factor, the geological temperature corresponding to TRo.5 （transforming ratio of hydrocarbon generation is 50%） increases gradually, and the additional temperature gradually decreases. Combined with geochemical data of source rock, the kinetic parameters with different pre-exponentia[ factors are used to calculate the transformation ratio of hydrocarbon generation, and the result indicates that kinetic parameters corresponding to the better optimized pre-exponential factor are more suitable. It is suggested that the risk assessment of hydrocarbon generation kinetic parameters should be enhanced when using the kinetic method to appraise the oil-gas resources. Meantime, the application result of different kinetic parameters should be verified with geological and geochemical data of source rock in the target area; therefore, the most suitable kinetic parameters for target can be obtained.

Identification of time-varying system and energy-based optimization of adaptive control in seismically excited structure

The combination of structural health monitoring and vibration control is of great importance to provide components of smart structures.While synthetic algorithms have been proposed,adaptive control that is compatible with changing conditions still needs to be used,and time-varying systems are required to be simultaneously estimated with the application of adaptive control.In this research,the identification of structural time-varying dynamic characteristics and optimized simple adaptive control are integrated.First,reduced variations of physical parameters are estimated online using the multiple forgetting factor recursive least squares(MFRLS)method.Then,the energy from the structural vibration is simultaneously specified to optimize the control force with the identified parameters to be operational.Optimization is also performed based on the probability density function of the energy under the seismic excitation at any time.Finally,the optimal control force is obtained by the simple adaptive control(SAC)algorithm and energy coefficient.A numerical example and benchmark structure are employed to investigate the efficiency of the proposed approach.The simulation results revealed the effectiveness of the integrated online identification and optimal adaptive control in systems.

Non-uniform thermal behavior of single-layer spherical reticulated shell structures considering time-variant environmental factors: analysis and design

Contrary to conventional design methods that assume uniform and slow temperature changes tied to atmospheric conditions,single-layer spherical reticulated shells undergo significant non-uniform and time-variant temperature variations due to dynamic environmental coupling.These differences can affect structural performance and pose safety risks.Here,a systematic numerical method was developed and applied to simulate long-term temperature variations in such a structure under real environmental conditions,revealing its non-uniform distribution characteristics and time-variant regularity.A simplified design method for non-uniform thermal loads,accounting for time-variant environmental factors,was theoretically derived and validated through experiments and simulations.The maximum deviation and mean error rate between calculated and tested results were 6.1℃ and 3.7%,respectively.Calculated temperature fields aligned with simulated ones,with deviations under 6.0℃.Using the design method,non-uniform thermal effects of the structure are analyzed.Maximum member stress and nodal displacement under non-uniform thermal loads reached 119.3 MPa and 19.7 mm,representing increases of 167.5%and 169.9%,respectively,compared to uniform thermal loads.The impacts of healing construction time on non-uniform thermal effects were evaluated,resulting in construction recommendations.The methodologies and conclusions presented here can serve as valuable references for the thermal design,construction,and control of single-layer spherical reticulated shells or similar structures.

Robust Parameter Identification Method of Adhesion Model for Heavy Haul Trains

A robust parameter identification method based on Kiencke model was proposed to solve the problem of the parameter identification accuracy being affected by the rail environment change and noise interference for heavy-duty trains. Firstly, a Kiencke stick-creep identification model was constructed, and the parameter identification task was transformed into a quadratic programming problem. Secondly, an iterative algorithm was constructed to solve the problem, into which a time-varying forgetting factor was added to track the change of the rail environment, and to solve the uncertainty problem of the wheel-rail environment. The Granger causality test was adopted to detect the interference, and then the weights of the current data were redistributed to solve the problem of noise interference in parameter identification. Finally, simulations were carried out and the results showed that the proposed method could track the change of the track environment in time, reduce the noise interference in the identification process, and effectively identify the adhesion performance parameters.

Dynamic Characteristics of Double-Helical Planetary Gear Sets Under Time-Varying Mesh Stiffness

Internal and external meshes are two of primary excitation sources which induce vibration while double-helical planetary gear sets are in transmission. Based on the analysis of tooth movement principle,three cases of mesh stiffness are derived via investigating the length of action lines,and catalogued in terms of β < β0,β = β0and β > β_0. The simulation demonstrates mesh stiffness between gear pairs performs as a trapezoid waveform( TW) and changes along with the line of action simultaneously,total mesh stiffness comes from the superposition of each engaged gear. While governing equations of motion contained 16 DOFs( degree of freedom) are constructed and effectively solved through the combination of numerical approaches. Comparing with sinusoidal waveform mesh stiffness( SW),the results show that dynamical factors and perturbation under the excitation of TW( β < β_0) are greater and remarkable than that from SW,with respect to the mean dynamic factors about 1. 51 and 1. 28,respectively. The fluctuation response between ring- planet( R- P) is stronger than sun-planet( S-P) which is also validated by both approach studies,frequency spectra analyses identifies larger distinct rotational resonance and more frequencies under TW excitation.

Non-isothermal thermal decomposition kinetics of high iron gibbsite ore based on Popescu method

The thermal decomposition kinetics of high iron gibbsite ore was investigated under non-isothermal conditions.Popescu method was applied to analyzing the thermal decomposition mechanism.The results show that the most probable thermal decomposition mechanism is the three-dimensional diffusion model of Jander equation,and the mechanism code is D3.The activation energy and pre-exponential factor for thermal decomposition of high iron gibbsite ore calculated by the Popescu method are 75.36 kJ/mol and 1.51×10-5 s-（-1）,respectively.The correctness of the obtained mechanism function is validated by the activation energy acquired by the iso-conversional method.Popescu method is a rational and reliable method for the analysis of the thermal decomposition mechanism of high iron gibbsite ore.

Kinetic Implication from Temperature Effect on Hydrogen Evolution Reaction at Ag Electrode

Hydrogen evolution reaction （HER） at polycrystalline silver electrode in 0.1 mol/L HClO4 solution is investigated by cyclic voltammetry in the temperature range of 278-333 K. We found that at electrode potential φa,app decreases with φ, while pre-exponential factor A remains nearly unchanged,which conforms well the prediction from Butler-Volmer equation. In contrast, with φ nega-tive shifts from the onset potential for HER to the potential of zero charge （PZC≈-0.4 V）, both Ea,app and A for HER increase （e.g., Ea,app increases from 24 kJ/mol to 32 kJ/mol）. The increase in Ea,app and A with negative shift in φ from -0.25 V to PZC is explained by the increases of both internal energy change and entropy change from reactants to the transition states, which is correlated with the change in the hydrogen bond network during HER. The positive entropy effects overcompensate the adverse effect from the increase in the activation energy, which leads to a net increase in HER current with the activation energy negative shift from the onset potential of HER to PZC. It is pointed out that entropy change may contribute greatly to the kinetics for electrode reaction which involves the transfer of electron and proton, such as HER.

Restraining effect of nitrogen on coal oxidation in different stages:Non-isothermal TG-DSC and EPR research

Nitrogen is widely used to prevent the spontaneous combustion of coal in underground coal mines. A spontaneous combustion-prone coal seam was studied to investigate the restraining effect of nitrogen on coal oxidation in different oxidation stages, based on non-isothermal thermogravimetry-differential scanning calorimetry(TG-DSC) and electron paramagnetic resonance(EPR) experiments. We found that the key feature temperatures grow steadily with increasing nitrogen in the oxidation environment,resulting in longer oxidation stages. The most significant finding is that there is a stagnation of the inhibitory effect of nitrogen on coal oxidation in the range of 85.0–95.0% nitrogen in the slow and the rapid oxidation stages, owing to the competitive adsorption of coal by nitrogen and oxygen. However, the restraining effect cannot be reflected by the kinetic parameters of the coal before it reaches the thermal decomposition and combustion stage. Nitrogen can also affect free radical types and free radical concentrations during coal oxidation: the higher the concentration of nitrogen in the oxidation environment, the greater the number of free radical types and the lower the free radical concentration. This experimental study improves the understanding of the restraining effect of nitrogen on coal oxidation in different oxidation stages and provides an important reference for coal fire prevention in spontaneous combustionprone coal seams.

Stability analysis of particle swarm optimization without Lipschitz constraint

There are some adjustable parameters which directly influence the performance and stability of Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm. In this paper, stabilities of PSO with constant parameters and time-varying parameters are analyzed without Lipschitz constraint. Necessary and sufficient stability conditions for acceleration factor P and inertia weight w are presented. Experiments on benchmark functions show the good performance of PSO satisfying the stability condition, even without Lipschitz constraint. And the inertia weight ω value is enhanced to (-1,1). Keywords Lipschitz constraint - Time-varying discrete system - Adaptive acceleration factor - Stability

Adaptive Subspace Predictive Control with Time-varying Forgetting Factor

Aiming at the time-varying characteristics of industrial process, this paper introduces an adaptive subspace predictive control(ASPC) strategy with time-varying forgetting factor based on the original subspace predictive control algorithm(SPC). The new method uses model matching error to calculate the variable forgetting factor, and applies it to constructing Hankel data matrix.This makes the data represent the changes of system information better. For eliminating the steady state error, the derivation of the incremental control is made. Simulation results on a rotary kiln show that this control strategy has achieved a good control effect.

Numerical study on the propagation characteristics of forward smoldering in a cellulosic packed bed

Based on a three-step kinetic mechanism, a one-dimensional, time dependent, numerical model is presented for the smoldering propagation in a horizontally packed bed of cellulosic material. The kinetic processes include pyrolysis and oxidation degradation of fuel and oxidation of char. Heat transfer between solid and gas is taken into account, and the diffusion coefficient varies with the temperature. Radiative heat transfer is included by using the diffusion approximation. The effects of airflow velocity and oxygen concentration are simulated on the smoldering velocity and the averaged maximum temperature of smoldering fuel. The results indicate that the spread rate varies linearly with increasing airflow velocity, and the inlet air velocity has little effect on the maximum temperature. The evolutions of gas species and solid compositions are predicted. The effects of frequency factors （A1, A2 and A3） are analyzed. Simulations show that the smoldering spread rate increases with increasing A2 （fuel oxidation）, but decreases with A1 （fuel pyrolysis） and A3 （char oxidation）.

Excitation Prediction by Dynamic Transmission Error under Sliding Friction in Helical Gear System

Monte Carlo method was adopted to calculate the meshing error considering the manufacture error and assembly error of the meshing point along the time-varying contact line for helical gear pair. The flexural-torsion-axis dynamic model coupled was established under the tooth friction force and solved by the perturbation method to compute real dynamic tooth load. The change laws of the friction force and friction torque were obtained in a meshing period. The transmission error formulation was analyzed to introduce meshing excitations. The maximum dynamic transmission error, the maximum meshing force and the maximum dynamic factor were calculated under different speeds, external loads and damping factors. The conclusions can provide theoretical basis for the gear design especially in tooth profile correction.

A Model-based Phenomenological Investigation of Char Combustion Kinetics through Thermogravimetry

Five coal char samples were burnt in thermobalance with ramp heating rate of 30 K/min. The pore structure of these char samples was studied through mercury intrusion method. Combined with the kinetic theory of gases, the data of surface area was used in fitting the results. As a result, the kinetic triplet was given. The analysis showed that five char samples share almost the same intrinsic activation energy of the overall reaction. The phenomenological implication of the derived combustion rate equation was given.

Carbon productivity convergence club and its initial conditions: China's construction industry

A three-stage method is proposed to study the convergence clubs for the dynamic total factor carbon productivity (DCP) and the initial conditions. The first stage is to measure the DCP that reflects the initial difference. The second stage is to identify the convergence club of DCP. The last stage is to examine the initial factors that may affect the formation of the convergence club. Construction industry data from 30 provinces in China's Mainland from 2005 to 2016 were adopted to conduct an empirical study. The empirical results showed that (1) the arithmetic mean value of China’s provincial DCP showed an upward trend and the standard deviation showed an expanding trend.(2) There are five convergence clubs, but 13 provinces failed to converge to any club.(3) The higher the degree of construction industry marketization in 2005, the greater the probability that the provinces belong to a club with higher DCP. To improve the DCP, the effective diffusion of low-carbon construction technologies and the market-oriented reform of state-owned construction companies should be promoted. The three-stage method can also be applied to study different industries in different countries or regions.

Minimum Attenuation of Physiologically-Patterned, 1 µTesla Magnetic Fields through Simulated Skull and Cerebral Space

To answer the queries concerning penetrability of ~1 μT, physiologically patterned, time-varying magnetic fields through the cranium, the proportions of attenuation through thicknesses and densities of ~3 times that of the human skull were measured directly. There was no reduction in the intensity of the magnetic field when two 2 cm thick dried pine boards (4.3 × 103 kg·m-3) were placed between the pairs of solenoids separated by the approximate width of the skull. Although volumes of water containing intracellular concentrations of ions did not attenuate the field intensity, placement of 290 cm2 of 2 mm sheets of duct metal reduced the amplitude by 25%. Spectra comparisons showed a clear congruence in profiles between direct measurement of the applied field and the original computer-generated pattern. These results indicate there is little validity to claims that weak, time-varying magnetic fields applied in this manner are eliminated or significantly attenuated by the human skull.

Realized volatility forecast of financial futures using timevarying HAR latent factor models

We forecast realized volatilities by developing a time-varying heterogeneous autoregressive(HAR)latent factor model with dynamic model average(DMA)and dynamic model selection(DMS)approaches.The number of latent factors is determined using Chan and Grant's(2016)deviation information criteria.The predictors in our model include lagged daily,weekly,and monthly volatility variables,the corresponding volatility factors,and a speculation variable.In addition,the time-varying properties of the best-performing DMA(DMS)-HAR-2FX models,including size,inclusion probabilities,and coefficients,are examined.We find that the proposed DMA(DMS)-HAR-2FX model outperforms the competing models for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts.Furthermore,the speculation variable displays strong predictability for forecasting the realized volatility of financial futures in China.

Reaction kinetics of CaC2 formation from powder and compressed feeds

The production of CaC2 from coke/lime powders and compressed powder pellets are low cost and fast processes. A number of studies have reported the reaction kinetics of these reactions but they are still not well understood and the proposed kinetic models are not comparable due to differences in the reaction conditions. Therefore the reaction behavior of CaO/C powders （0.074 mm） and cubes （5 mm × 5 mm × （4.6-5.1） mm） compressed from a mixture of powders have been studied using thermal gravimetric analysis （TGA） at 1700- 1850 ℃. Kinetic models were obtained from the TGA data using isoconversional and model-fitting methods. The reaction rates for the compressed feeds were lower than those for the powder feeds. This is due to the reduced surface area of the compressed samples which inhibits heat transfer from the surrounding environment （or the heating source） to the sample. The compression pressure had little influence on the reaction rate. The reaction kinetics of both the powder and the compressed feeds can be described by the contracting volume modelf（α） = 3（1 -α）^2/3, where a is the conversion rate of reactant. The apparent activation energy and pre-exponential factor of the powder feed were estimated to 346-354 kJ·mol^-1 and 5.9 x 10^7 min^-1, respectively, whereas those of the compressed feed were 305-327 kJ·mol^-1 and 3.6 ×10^6 min^-1, respectively.

A method to extract instantaneous features of low frequency oscillation based on trajectory section eigenvalues

Affected by the nonlinear time-varying factors due to fault scenarios,protection relaying,and control measures,the dynamic behaviors of a power system may be significantly different from the results of previous methods.In order to analyze the oscillation characteristics of complex power systems more accurately and suppress the low frequency oscillation more effectively,this paper improves the trajectory section eigenvalue method.Firstly,the time response of a system is obtained by numerical simulation in a given fault scenario.Secondly,the algebraic variables are substituted to the differential equations along the trajectory.Thus,the original time-varying differential-algebraic equations are approximated by a set of linear ordinary differential equations,which can be updated along the trajectory.On this basis,this paper proposes a method to extract instantaneous features of the oscillation from the micro perspective.The non-equilibrium points with strong nonlinearity or critical eigenmodes are identified by the proposed method.The simulation test results of the IEEE 3-machine 9-bus system and the New England system illustrate the validity of the proposed method.