Time-varying parameters estimation with adaptive neural network EKF for missile-dual control system

In this paper, a filtering method is presented to estimate time-varying parameters of a missile dual control system with tail fins and reaction jets as control variables. In this method, the long-short-term memory(LSTM) neural network is nested into the extended Kalman filter(EKF) to modify the Kalman gain such that the filtering performance is improved in the presence of large model uncertainties. To avoid the unstable network output caused by the abrupt changes of system states,an adaptive correction factor is introduced to correct the network output online. In the process of training the network, a multi-gradient descent learning mode is proposed to better fit the internal state of the system, and a rolling training is used to implement an online prediction logic. Based on the Lyapunov second method, we discuss the stability of the system, the result shows that when the training error of neural network is sufficiently small, the system is asymptotically stable. With its application to the estimation of time-varying parameters of a missile dual control system, the LSTM-EKF shows better filtering performance than the EKF and adaptive EKF(AEKF) when there exist large uncertainties in the system model.

基于Nested Logit与Random Parameters Logit模型的摩托车事故伤害估计与对比

为了给我国的摩托车事故伤害分析提供指导与依据,通过抽取美国印第安纳州2013—2015年的1947起摩托车单车事故,分别建立Nested Logit与Random Parameters Logit模型,分析摩托车事故伤害程度的影响因素,模型参数分别采用全信息最大似然估计法与蒙特卡洛模拟方法进行估计.两个模型的估计结果均表明:女性、年龄、使用头盔、酒驾、甩出车外、超速、冲出道路、载人、车龄>10年、路面潮湿、曲线坡度、交叉口、限速>80 km/h、4月份、7月份、夜间无灯光、郊区、事故碰撞物(防护栏、树、墙、路缘、电线杆、涵洞)等与摩托车事故伤害程度显著相关.通过对比Nested Logit与Random Parameters Logit模型的AIC与BIC准则值,发现Random Parameters Logit模型对事故数据的拟合优度更高,能够得到更好的参数估计结果.

Reliability analysis of structure with random parameters based on multivariate power polynomial expansion

A new method for calculating the failure probabilityof structures with random parameters is proposed based onmultivariate power polynomial expansion, in which te uncertain quantities include material properties, structuralgeometric characteristics and static loads. The structuralresponse is first expressed as a multivariable power polynomialexpansion, of which the coefficients ae then determined by utilizing the higher-order perturbation technique and Galerkinprojection scheme. Then, the final performance function ofthe structure is determined. Due to the explicitness of theperformance function, a multifold integral of the structuralfailure probability can be calculated directly by the Monte Carlo simulation, which only requires a smal amount ofcomputation time. Two numerical examples ae presented toillustate te accuracy ad efficiency of te proposed metiod. It is shown that compaed with the widely used first-orderreliability method （ FORM） and second-order reliabilitymethod （ SORM）, te results of the proposed method are closer to that of the direct Monte Carlo metiod,and it requires much less computational time.

IDENTIFICATION OF TIME-VARYING MODAL PARAMETERS USING LINEAR TIME-FREQUENCY REPRESENTATION

A new method of parameter identification based on linear time-frequencyrepresentation and Hubert transform is proposed to identity modal parameters of linear time-varyingsystems from measured vibration responses. Using Gabor expansion and synthesis theory, measuredresponses are represented in the time-frequency domain and modal components are reconstructed bytime-frequency filtering. The Hilbert transform is applied to obtain time histories of the amplitudeand phase angle of each modal component, from which time-varying frequencies and damping ratios areidentified. The proposed method has been demonstrated with a numerical example in which a lineartime-varying system of two degrees of freedom is used to validate the identification scheme based ontime-frequency representation. Simulation results have indicated that time-frequency representationpresents an effective tool for modal parameter identification of time-varying systems.

Improved cat swarm optimization for parameter estimation of mixed additive and multiplicative random error model

To estimate the parameters of the mixed additive and multiplicative(MAM)random error model using the weighted least squares iterative algorithm that requires derivation of the complex weight array,we introduce a derivative-free cat swarm optimization for parameter estimation.We embed the Powell method,which uses conjugate direction acceleration and does not need to derive the objective function,into the original cat swarm optimization to accelerate its convergence speed and search accuracy.We use the ordinary least squares,weighted least squares,original cat swarm optimization,particle swarm algorithm and improved cat swarm optimization to estimate the parameters of the straight-line fitting MAM model with lower nonlinearity and the DEM MAM model with higher nonlinearity,respectively.The experimental results show that the improved cat swarm optimization has faster convergence speed,higher search accuracy,and better stability than the original cat swarm optimization and the particle swarm algorithm.At the same time,the improved cat swarm optimization can obtain results consistent with the weighted least squares method based on the objective function only while avoiding multiple complex weight array derivations.The method in this paper provides a new idea for theoretical research on parameter estimation of MAM error models.

Adaptive Containment Control for Fractional-Order Nonlinear Multi-Agent Systems With Time-Varying Parameters

This paper investigates adaptive containment control for a class of fractional-order multi-agent systems(FOMASs)with time-varying parameters and disturbances.By using the bounded estimation method,the difficulty generated by the timevarying parameters and disturbances is overcome.The command filter is introduced to solve the complexity problem inherent in adaptive backstepping control.Meanwhile,in order to eliminate the effect of filter errors,a novel distributed error compensating scheme is constructed,in which only the local information from the neighbor agents is utilized.Then,a distributed adaptive containment control scheme for FOMASs is developed based on backstepping to guarantee that the outputs of all the followers are steered to the convex hull spanned by the leaders.Based on the extension of Barbalat's lemma to fractional-order integrals,it can be proven that the containment errors and the compensating signals have asymptotic convergence.Finally,three simulation examples are given to show the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed control method.

Analysis of bicyclist-vehicle crash at intersection area considering behavior prior to crash:A random parameter ordinal probit approach

In order to analyze the risky factors that affect vehicle-cyclist crash injury severity at the intersection area,especially the factors relating to the road users behaviors,an empirical study was conducted by collecting accident records from 2011 to 2015 from the General Estimates System.After preliminary screening,the variables were classified into 5 main categories including cyclists characteristic and behavior,drivers characteristic and behavior,vehicle characteristic,intersection condition,and time.The random parameter ordinal probit(RPOP)was used to study the significant influencing factors and corresponding heterogeneity.The results show that failing to obey traffic signals,failing to yield to right-of-way,dash and drinking before cycling can increase the injury severity for cyclists,and the corresponding fatal injury likelihoods increase by 53.2%,40.0%,86.3%,and 211.5%,respectively.Moreover,drivers inattention,speeding,going straight and left turning increase the risk of crashing for cyclists.The corresponding fatal injury likelihoods increase by 134.5%,186.5%,69.3%,and 22.7%,respectively.Other indicators such as age,gender,vehicle type,traffic signal and intersection type can also affect injury severity.

THE DECISION OF THE OPTIMAL PARAMETERS IN MARKOV RANDOM FIELDS OF IMAGES BY GENETIC ALGORITHM

This paper introduces the principle of genetic algorithm and the basic method of solving Markov random field parameters.Focusing on the shortcomings in present methods,a new method based on genetic algorithms is proposed to solve the parameters in the Markov random field.The detailed procedure is discussed.On the basis of the parameters solved by genetic algorithms,some experiments on classification of aerial images are given.Experimental results show that the proposed method is effective and the classification results are satisfactory.

Stochastic period-doubling bifurcation analysis of a Rssler system with a bounded random parameter

This paper aims to study the stochastic period-doubling bifurcation of the three-dimensional Rossler system with an arch-like bounded random parameter. First, we transform the stochastic RSssler system into its equivalent deterministic one in the sense of minimal residual error by the Chebyshev polynomial approximation method. Then, we explore the dynamical behaviour of the stochastic RSssler system through its equivalent deterministic system by numerical simulations. The numerical results show that some stochastic period-doubling bifurcation, akin to the conventional one in the deterministic case, may also appear in the stochastic Rossler system. In addition, we also examine the influence of the random parameter intensity on bifurcation phenomena in the stochastic Rossler system.

Stochastic period-doubling bifurcation in biharmonic driven Duffing system with random parameter

Stochastic period-doubling bifurcation is explored in a forced Duffing system with a bounded random parameter as an additional weak harmonic perturbation added to the system. Firstly, the biharmonic driven Duffing system with a random parameter is reduced to its equivalent deterministic one, and then the responses of the stochastic system can be obtained by available effective numerical methods. Finally, numerical simulations show that the phase of the additional weak harmonic perturbation has great influence on the stochastic period-doubling bifurcation in the biharmonic driven Duffing system. It is emphasized that, different from the deterministic biharmonic driven Duffing system, the intensity of random parameter in the Duffing system can also be taken as a bifurcation parameter, which can lead to the stochastic period-doubling bifurcations.

Use of Random Regression Test-Day Model to Estimate Genetic Parameters of Milk Yield in Holstein Cows

(Co) variance components and genetic parameters were estimated for milk yield of Iranian Holstein cows. A total number of 68,945 milk test-day records of first, second and third lactations of 8515 animals from 100 sires and 7743 dams originated from 34 herds collected during 2007 to 2009 by Iranian animal breeding center were used. The ASReml computer program was used to analyze the milk test-day records using the random regression procedure. Herd test date (HTD), milking times per day (milking frequency), number of lactations, year of birth, year of calving, age of animal at calving and days in milk (DIM) considered as fixed effects and additive genetic effects and animal permanent environmental effects were considered as the random effects. Additive genetic variance, animal permanent environment variance, residual variance, phenotypic variance, heritability and repeatability were estimated during different months of lactation between 5.7 - 19.6, 15.3 - 27.1, 31.4 - 17.2, 45.8 - 64.83, 0.1 - 0.32 and 0.4 - 0.6, respectively. Genetic correlation and phenotypic correlation were also estimated between months of lactation in range of -0.35 - 0.98 and 0.03 - 0.67, respectively. Genetic correlation and phenotypic correlation both showed the same changing pattern and they decreased as the interval between months of lactation increased.

Identification of Time-Varying Modal Parameters for Thermo-Elastic Structure Subject to Unsteady Heating

A time-varying modal parameter identification method combined with Bayesian information criterion(BIC)and grey correlation analysis(GCA)is presented for a kind of thermo-elastic structures with sparse natural frequencies and subject to an unsteady temperature field.To demonstrate the method,the thermo-elastic structure to be identified is taken as a simply-supported beam with an axially movable boundary and subject to both random excitation and an unsteady temperature field,and the dynamic outputs of the beam are first simulated as the measured data for the identification.Then,an improved time-varying autoregressive(TVAR)model is generated from the simulated input and output of the system.The time-varying coefficients of the TVAR model are expanded as a finite set of time basis functions that facilitate the time-varying coefficients to be time-invariant.According to the BIC for preliminarily determining the scope of the order number,the grey system theory is introduced to determine the order of TVAR and the dimension of the basis functions simultaneously via the absolute grey correlation degree(AGCD).Finally,the time-varying instantaneous frequencies of the system are estimated by using the recursive least squares method.The identified results are capable of tracking the slow time-varying natural frequencies with high accuracy no matter for noise-free or noisy estimation.

Optimal Parameter Estimation of Transmission Line Using Chaotic Initialized Time-Varying PSO Algorithm

Transmission line is a vital part of the power system that connects two major points,the generation,and the distribution.For an efficient design,stable control,and steady operation of the power system,adequate knowledge of the transmission line parameters resistance,inductance,capacitance,and conductance is of great importance.These parameters are essential for transmission network expansion planning in which a new parallel line is needed to be installed due to increased load demand or the overhead line is replaced with an underground cable.This paper presents a method to optimally estimate the parameters using the input-output quantities i.e.,voltages,currents,and power factor of the transmission line.The equivalentπ-network model is used and the terminal data i.e.,sending-end and receiving-end quantities are assumed as available measured data.The parameter estimation problem is converted to an optimization problem by formulating an error-minimizing objective function.An improved particle swarm optimization(PSO)in terms of time-varying control parameters and chaos-based initialization is used to optimally estimate the line parameters.Two cases are considered for parameter estimation,the first case is when the line conductance is neglected and in the second case,the conductance is considered into account.The results obtained by the improved algorithm are compared with the standard version of the algorithm,firefly algorithm and artificial bee colony algorithm for 30 number of trials.It is concluded that the improved algorithm is tremendously sufficient in estimating the line parameters in both cases validated by low error values and statistical analysis,comparatively.

TECHNICAL STABILITY OF NONLINEAR TIME-VARYING SYSTEMS WITH SMALL PARAMETERS

Technical stability:allowing quantitative estimation of trajectory behavior of a dynamical system over a given time interval was considered. Based on a differential comparison principle and a basic monotonicity condition, technical stability relative to certain prescribed state constraint sets of a class of nonlinear time-varying systems with small parameters was analyzed by means of vector Liapunov function method. Explicit criteria of technical stability are established in terms of coefficients of the system under consideration. Conditions under which the technical stability of the system can be derived from its reduced linear time-varying (LTV) system were further examined, as well as a condition for linearization approach to technical stability of general nonlinear systems. Also, a simple algebraic condition of exponential asymptotic stability of LTV systems is presented. Two illustrative examples are given to demonstrate the availability of the presently proposed method.

Randomized Algorithm for Determining Stabilizing Parameter Regions for General Delay Control Systems

This paper proposes a method for determining the stabilizing parameter regions for general delay control systems based on randomized sampling. A delay control system is converted into a unified state-space form. The numerical stability condition is developed and checked for sample points in the parameter space. These points are separated into stable and unstable regions by the decision function obtained from some learning method. The proposed method is very general and applied to a much wider range of systems than the existing methods in the literature. The proposed method is illustrated with examples.

Shrinkage Estimation in the Random Parameters Logit Model

In this paper, we explore the properties of a positive-part Stein-like estimator which is a stochastically weighted convex combination of a fully correlated parameter model estimator and uncorrelated parameter model estimator in the Random Parameters Logit (RPL) model. The results of our Monte Carlo experiments show that the positive-part Stein-like estimator provides smaller MSE than the pretest estimator in the fully correlated RPL model. Both of them outperform the fully correlated RPL model estimator and provide more accurate information on the share of population putting a positive or negative value on the alternative attributes than the fully correlated RPL model estimates. The Monte Carlo mean estimates of direct elasticity with pretest and positive-part Stein-like estimators are closer to the true value and have smaller standard errors than those with fully correlated RPL model estimator.

Random but System-Wide Unique Unlinkable Parameters

When initializing cryptographic systems or running cryptographic protocols, the randomness of critical parameters, like keys or key components, is one of the most crucial aspects. But, randomly chosen parameters come with the intrinsic chance of duplicates, which finally may cause cryptographic systems including RSA, ElGamal and Zero-Knowledge proofs to become insecure. When concerning digital identifiers, we need uniqueness in order to correctly identify a specific action or object. Unfortunately we also need randomness here. Without randomness, actions become linkable to each other or to their initiator’s digital identity. So ideally the employed (cryptographic) parameters should fulfill two potentially conflicting requirements simultaneously: randomness and uniqueness. This article proposes an efficient mechanism to provide both attributes at the same time without highly constraining the first one and never violating the second one. After defining five requirements on random number generators and discussing related work, we will describe the core concept of the generation mechanism. Subsequently we will prove the postulated properties (security, randomness, uniqueness, efficiency and privacy protection) and present some application scenarios including system-wide unique parameters, cryptographic keys and components, identifiers and digital pseudonyms.

Flight Flutter Modal Parameters Identification with Atmospheric Turbulence Excitation Based on Wavelet Transformation

In view of the feature of flight flutter test data with atmospheric turbulence excitation, a method which combines wavelet transformation with random decrement technique for identifying flight flutter modal parameters is presented. This approach firstly uses random decrement technique to gain free decays corresponding to the acceleration response of the structure to some non-zero initial conditions. Then the continuous Morlet wavelet transformation of the free decays is performed; and the Parseval formula and residue theorem are used to simplify the transformation. The maximal wavelet transformation coefficients in different scales are searched out by means of band-filtering characteristic of Morlet wavelet, and then the modal parameters are identified according to the relationships with maximal modulus and angle of the wavelet transform. In addition, the condition of modal uncoupling is discussed according to variation trend of flight flutter modal parameters in the flight flutter state. The analysis results of simulation and flight flutter test data show that this approach is not only simple, effective and feasible, but also having good noise immunity.

Structural modal parameter identifi cation and damage diagnosis based on Hilbert-Huang transform

Traditional modal parameter identifi cation methods have many disadvantages,especially when used for processing nonlinear and non-stationary signals.In addition,they are usually not able to accurately identify the damping ratio and damage.In this study,methods based on the Hilbert-Huang transform(HHT) are investigated for structural modal parameter identifi cation and damage diagnosis.First,mirror extension and prediction via a radial basis function(RBF) neural network are used to restrain the troublesome end-effect issue in empirical mode decomposition(EMD),which is a crucial part of HHT.Then,the approaches based on HHT combined with other techniques,such as the random decrement technique(RDT),natural excitation technique(NExT) and stochastic subspace identifi cation(SSI),are proposed to identify modal parameters of structures.Furthermore,a damage diagnosis method based on the HHT is also proposed.Time-varying instantaneous frequency and instantaneous energy are used to identify the damage evolution of the structure.The relative amplitude of the Hilbert marginal spectrum is used to identify the damage location of the structure.Finally,acceleration records at gauge points from shaking table testing of a 12-story reinforced concrete frame model are taken to validate the proposed approaches.The results show that the proposed approaches based on HHT for modal parameter identifi cation and damage diagnosis are reliable and practical.

SLIDING MODE CONTROL OF A CLASS OF ITO TYPE DISTRIBUTED PARAMETER SYSTEMS WITH DELAY

Sliding mode control problem of a class of Ito^ type partial differential equations with delay is probed. The variable structure controller is designed. The existence of motion of sliding mode is shown. And the character of invariance of sliding control system about uncertainty on the sliding switching surface and stability are analyzed.