BACKGROUND Total knee arthroplasty(TKA)can improve pain,quality of life,and functional outcomes.Although uncommon,postoperative complications are extremely consequential and thus must be carefully tracked and communic...BACKGROUND Total knee arthroplasty(TKA)can improve pain,quality of life,and functional outcomes.Although uncommon,postoperative complications are extremely consequential and thus must be carefully tracked and communicated to patients to assist their decision-making before surgery.Identification of the risk factors for complications and readmissions after TKA,taking into account common causes,temporal trends,and risk variables that can be changed or left unmodified,will benefit this process.AIM To assess readmission rates,early complications and their causes after TKA at 30 days and 90 days post-surgery.METHODS This was a prospective and retrospective study of 633 patients who underwent TKA at our hospital between January 1,2017,and February 28,2022.Of the 633 patients,28 were not contactable,leaving 609 who met the inclusion criteria.Both inpatient and outpatient hospital records were retrieved,and observations were noted in the data collection forms.RESULTS Following TKA,the 30-day and 90-day readmission rates were determined to be 1.1%(n=7)and 1.8%(n=11),respectively.The unplanned visit rate at 30 days following TKA was 2.6%(n=16)and at 90 days was 4.6%(n=28).At 90 days,the unplanned readmission rate was 1.4%(n=9).Reasons for readmissions included medical(27.2%,n=3)and surgical(72.7%,n=8).Unplanned readmissions and visits within 90 days of follow-up did not substantially differ by age group(P=0.922),body mass index(BMI)(P=0.633),unilateral vs bilateral TKA(P=0.696),or patient comorbidity status(30-day P=0.171 and 90-day P=0.813).Reoperation rates after TKA were 0.66%(n=4)at 30 days and 1.15%(n=8)at 90 days.The average length of stay was 6.53 days.CONCLUSION In this study,there was a low readmission rate following TKA.There was no significant correlation between readmission rate and patient factors such as age,BMI,and co-morbidity status.展开更多
BACKGROUND Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography(ERCP)is an accurate diagnostic method for choledocholithiasis and treatment option for stone removal.Additionally,ursodeoxycholic acid(UDCA)can dissolve choles...BACKGROUND Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography(ERCP)is an accurate diagnostic method for choledocholithiasis and treatment option for stone removal.Additionally,ursodeoxycholic acid(UDCA)can dissolve cholesterol stones and prevent their development and reappearance by lowering the cholesterol concen-tration in bile.Despite these treatment options,there are still patients who experience stone recurrence.The clinical data of 100 patients with choledochal stones who were hospitalized at the Yixing People’s Hospital and underwent ERCP for successful stone extraction between June 2020 and December 2022 were retrospectively collected.According to the post-ERCP treatment plan,100 patients were classified into UDCA(n=47)and control(n=53)groups.We aimed to assess the clinical efficacy and rate of relapse in the two patient populations.We then collected information(basic demographic data,clinical characteristics,and serum biochemical indicators)and determined the factors contributing to relapse using logistic regression analysis.Our secondary goal was to determine the effects of UDCA on liver function after ERCP.Compared to the control group,the UDCA group demonstrated a higher clinical effectiveness rate of 92.45%vs 78.72%(P<0.05).No significant differences were observed in liver function indices,including total bilirubin,direct bilirubin,gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase,alanine aminotransferase,alkaline phosphatase,and aspartate aminotransferase,between the two groups before treatment.After treatment,all liver function indices were significantly reduced.Comparing the control vs UDCA groups,the UDCA group exhibited significantly lower levels of all indices(55.39±6.53 vs 77.31±8.52,32.10±4.62 vs 45.39±5.69,142.32±14.21 vs 189.63±16.87,112.52±14.25 vs 149.36±15.36,122.61±16.00 vs 171.33±22.09,96.98±10.44 vs 121.35±11.57,respectively,all P<0.05).The stone recurrence rate was lower in the UDCA group(13.21%)in contrast with the control group(44.68%).Periampullary diverticula(OR:6.00,95%CI:1.69-21.30),maximum stone diameter(OR:1.69,95%CI:1.01-2.85),stone quantity>3(OR:4.23,95%CI:1.17-15.26),and positive bile culture(OR:7.61,95%CI:2.07-27.91)were independent factors that influenced the relapse of common bile duct stones after ERCP(P<0.05).Furthermore,postoperative UDCA was identified as a preventive factor(OR:0.07;95%CI:0.08-0.09).CONCLUSION The intervention effect of UDCA after ERCP for common bile duct stones is adequate,providing new research directions and references for the prevention and treatment of stone recurrence.展开更多
Using the International Country Risk Guide(ICRG)index to represent countries’political risk,the time-varying effect of political risk on copper prices was examined based on the time-varying parameter structural vecto...Using the International Country Risk Guide(ICRG)index to represent countries’political risk,the time-varying effect of political risk on copper prices was examined based on the time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression with stochastic volatility(TVP-SVAR-SV)model.The empirical results show that the impact of political risk on copper prices is time-varying and has tended to increase gradually in recent years.There are significant country-level differences in the impact of political risk on copper prices.Political risk has a stronger and longer-lasting impact on copper prices in exporting countries.In terms of risk sources,external and internal conflicts contribute most to international copper price fluctuations in the sample period.The impact of political risk on copper prices reaches an extreme level during the international financial crisis,the European debt crisis,and the election of Donald Trump.展开更多
This study attempts to investigate the effect of financial and political risk on Chinese outward FDI activities in 56 emerging economies for a period from 2003 to 2013. Exchange rate is taken as a main indicator of fi...This study attempts to investigate the effect of financial and political risk on Chinese outward FDI activities in 56 emerging economies for a period from 2003 to 2013. Exchange rate is taken as a main indicator of financial risks and political risks are evaluated using ICRG (International Country Risk Guide) index. Generalized method of moments with panel data of Chinese outward FDI (foreign direct investment) in new emerging economies is used to find how Chinese finns intend to invest abroad with respect to exchange rate level, volatility, and expectation. The major findings show that RMB appreciation proved to have a positive effect on Chinese outward FDI in emerging economies. But Chinese OFDI (outward foreign direct investment) seems not to respond to exchange rate volatility. The expectation of RMB's appreciation has positive effect on Chinese OFDI in emerging economies. Results also show that more political risk leads to more Chinese OFDI in emerging economies.展开更多
To solve a real problem:how to calculate the reliability of a system with time-varying failure rates in industry systems,this paper studies a model for the load-sharing parallel system with time-varying failure rates,...To solve a real problem:how to calculate the reliability of a system with time-varying failure rates in industry systems,this paper studies a model for the load-sharing parallel system with time-varying failure rates,and obtains calculating formulas of reliability and availability of the system by solving differential equations.In this paper,the failure rates are expressed in polynomial configuration.The constant,linear and Weibull failure rate are in their special form.The polynomial failure rates provide flexibility in modeling the practical time-varying failure rates.展开更多
Analyses different interest rate risks, presents a new model for assessment of interest rates and thereby establishes the framework for control of interest
BACKGROUND Colon cancer is a common malignant tumor in the gastrointestinal tract that is typically treated surgically.However,postradical surgery is prone to complic-ations such as anastomotic fistulas.AIM To investi...BACKGROUND Colon cancer is a common malignant tumor in the gastrointestinal tract that is typically treated surgically.However,postradical surgery is prone to complic-ations such as anastomotic fistulas.AIM To investigate the risk factors for postoperative anastomotic fistulas and their impact on the prognosis of patients with colon cancer.METHODS We conducted a retrospective analysis of 488 patients with colon cancer who underwent radical surgery.This study was performed between April 2016 and April 2019 at a tertiary hospital in Wuxi,Jiangsu Province,China.A t-test was used to compare laboratory indicators between patients with and those without postoperative anastomotic fistulas.Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors for postoperative anastomotic fistulas.The Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Colorectal Cancer was also used to assess postoperative recovery.RESULTS Binary logistic regression analysis revealed that age[odds ratio(OR)=1.043,P=0.015],tumor,node,metastasis stage(OR=2.337,P=0.041),and surgical procedure were independent risk factors for postoperative anastomotic fistulas.Multiple linear regression analysis showed that the development of postoperative anastomotic fistula(P=0.000),advanced age(P=0.003),and the presence of diabetes mellitus(P=0.015),among other factors,independently affected CONCLUSION Postoperative anastomotic fistulas significantly affect prognosis and survival rates.Therefore,focusing on the clinical characteristics and risk factors and immediately implementing individualized preventive measures are important to minimize their occurrence.展开更多
Background: Treatment of Cervical cancer includes a combination of external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) with intracavitary brachytherapy (ICBT). ICBT helps to boost radiation dose to primary disease. Organs like rectum, ...Background: Treatment of Cervical cancer includes a combination of external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) with intracavitary brachytherapy (ICBT). ICBT helps to boost radiation dose to primary disease. Organs like rectum, bladder, sigmoid and small bowel lie close to the cervix region and these organs receive dose from EBRT as well as ICBT and we want to know the dose to these organ at risk (OAR). Materials & Methods: Dosimetric details of 174 ICBT applications done in 58 patients were retrospectively analysed. All patients received EBRT dose of 50.4 Gy in 28 fractions. All patients had ICBT, three sessions with 7 Gy prescribed to point A. Dosimetric data including dose to right and left point A and dose to OARs were recorded from Oncentra Planning System. Results: Mean dose to point A on right side was 6.89 Gy and left side was 6.91 Gy. Mean D2cc dose to rectum, bladder, sigmoid and small bowel was 3.5 Gy, 5.25 Gy, 4.75 Gy and 4.2 Gy respectively. Mean EQD2 dose combining EBRT and ICBT in point A was 78.7 Gy on right side and 79 Gy on left side. Mean EQD2 doses to D2cc of rectum, bladder, sigmoid and small bowel was 62 Gy, 74.4 Gy, 70.5 Gy and 66.5 Gy respectively. Conclusion: From the results of this dosimetric study it is evident that OARs like rectum, sigmoid, bladder & bowel are receiving only acceptable doses of radiation using point A prescribed CT based ICBT planning. Hence with regards to OAR doses, CT based ICBT planning with dose prescribed to point A is a feasible option.展开更多
In this paper, we examine further annuity-due risk model presented by Cai (Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences, 16(2002), 309-324). We consider the computation for the distribution of duratio...In this paper, we examine further annuity-due risk model presented by Cai (Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences, 16(2002), 309-324). We consider the computation for the distribution of duration of first negative surplus and the algorithm is shown for calculating probability that ruin occurs and the duration of first negative surplus takes any nonnegative integers values. Numerical illustration for the main result is given.展开更多
International shipping market is a risky market associated with a variety of risks which shipping companies have to cope with. International shipping has been seriously hit by the financial crisis in 2008. Since then,...International shipping market is a risky market associated with a variety of risks which shipping companies have to cope with. International shipping has been seriously hit by the financial crisis in 2008. Since then, this industry has experienced market downturn for a long period which was considered to be the longest period of depression in the history. This paper mainly focuses on the key market risks in international shipping including cyclical fluctuation risk, cost risk, freight rate volatility risk, and competition risk. It analyses the source of these market risks, and identifies some strategies to cope with these market risks. In the meantime, Maersk and China Ocean Shipping Group (COSCO), the world leading international shipping companies, are taken as two cases. Their strategies in market risk management are analyzed, which enable the reader to learn from their success and failure. Based on the international experience in market risk management in shipping industry as well as the real practice of Maersk and COSCO, this paper provides useful guidance for shipping companies to reduce market risks, overcome market downturn, and improve competitiveness.展开更多
Interest rate risk represents one of the key forms of financial risk faced by banks. It has given rise to an extensive body of research, .mainly focused on the estimation of sensitivity of bank stock returns to change...Interest rate risk represents one of the key forms of financial risk faced by banks. It has given rise to an extensive body of research, .mainly focused on the estimation of sensitivity of bank stock returns to changes in interest rates. However, the analysis of the sources of bank interest rate risk has received much less attention in the literature. It is essential that banks have to monitor, maintain, and manage their assets and liabilities portfolios in a systematic manner taking into account the various risks involved in these areas. Balance sheet risk of a bank can be categorized into two major types of significant risks, which are liquidity risk and interest rate risk (IRR). IRR is the risk to earning of capital arising from movement of interest rates. The need to manage IRR in Indian banks arises from movement of interest rates. The areas not much considered in the earlier research work are to manage IRR which influences critically the overall profitability of banks. The study was taken with an objective of analyzing the determinants of IRR and examining the strategy to manage such exposures testing the banks long run sustainability. The study had chosen 45 banks and collected secondary data for the financial year 2007 to 2012 to do the analysis of IRR management. The findings of the study were to suggest the ways to minimize the IRR and control its effect on the banks profit. The other findings were to test impact of IRR on the sustainability of the bank.展开更多
As the core economic variable in the process of the integration of world economy,the change of the exchange rate has an important impact on the import and export,foreign exchange reserves,interest rates,capital flows ...As the core economic variable in the process of the integration of world economy,the change of the exchange rate has an important impact on the import and export,foreign exchange reserves,interest rates,capital flows and other macro and microeconomic factors.This paper first analyzes the status quo of RMB exchange rate risk and the advanced experience of exchange rate management of other countries.Then,the empirical method is used to analyze the characteristics of RMB exchange rate fluctuation based on the day-frequency data of USD/RMB,GBP/RMB,EUR/RMB and JPY/RMB from December 2011 to December 2016.This paper also respectively uses the GARCH,TARCH,EGARCH and PARCH model to fit four representative foreign currencies against RMB,and selects the optimal model to calculate VaR value.Finally,validity of the data is verified through the Chi-square distribution test.The empirical results show that the four sequences are non-normal and first-order monotonic sequences.Besides,there is a significantly high-order ARCH effect,and the GARCH family model has a better fitting effect.JPY/RMB is with lower exchange rate risk,while the fluctuation of EUR/RMB is significantly greater than other currencies.According to the international situation of financial market,the status quo of RMB exchange rate and the conclusion of empirical research,this paper puts forward that the marketization and internationalization of RMB exchange rate should be based on improving the financial system and environment.It is also suggested that the government should properly intervene in the foreign exchange market and make good use of the risk measurement model and commercial banks should further develop the financial derivatives to hedge the foreign exchange risk.展开更多
In the paper the problem on the assignment of the bounds of decreasing rate for a time-varying linear control system is discussed. The sufficient and necessary condition for bounds of decreasing rate of a time-varying...In the paper the problem on the assignment of the bounds of decreasing rate for a time-varying linear control system is discussed. The sufficient and necessary condition for bounds of decreasing rate of a time-varying linear system to be assigned arbitrarily is presented. It is pointed out that for any given real number m, M, m<M, there exists a linear state feedback with time-varying gain matrix which makes the corresponding closed-loop system possess M and m as its upper bound and lower bound of the decreasing rate respectively. For the purposes of its application to system design the concept of the asymptotic assignment of the bounds of decreasing rate is also proposed. The method dealing with the asymptotic assignment is given too.展开更多
Economy globalization inevitably requires financial globalization. The interest rate (IR) is decided by the market, which will bring about IR risks to commercial banks (CBs). This paper discusses the inevitability...Economy globalization inevitably requires financial globalization. The interest rate (IR) is decided by the market, which will bring about IR risks to commercial banks (CBs). This paper discusses the inevitability of fulfilling market IR in China and what IR risks Chinese CBs have to burden. It also analyzes the formation causes of IR risks from the exterior and the interior aspects.展开更多
Objective To study the risk factors of surgical wound infection among the patients in department of abodominal surgery. Methods The factors on surgical wound infection were investigated by retrospective study. The dia...Objective To study the risk factors of surgical wound infection among the patients in department of abodominal surgery. Methods The factors on surgical wound infection were investigated by retrospective study. The diagnosis standard was based on Diagnosis Standard of Hospital Infection published by Ministry of Health.展开更多
文摘BACKGROUND Total knee arthroplasty(TKA)can improve pain,quality of life,and functional outcomes.Although uncommon,postoperative complications are extremely consequential and thus must be carefully tracked and communicated to patients to assist their decision-making before surgery.Identification of the risk factors for complications and readmissions after TKA,taking into account common causes,temporal trends,and risk variables that can be changed or left unmodified,will benefit this process.AIM To assess readmission rates,early complications and their causes after TKA at 30 days and 90 days post-surgery.METHODS This was a prospective and retrospective study of 633 patients who underwent TKA at our hospital between January 1,2017,and February 28,2022.Of the 633 patients,28 were not contactable,leaving 609 who met the inclusion criteria.Both inpatient and outpatient hospital records were retrieved,and observations were noted in the data collection forms.RESULTS Following TKA,the 30-day and 90-day readmission rates were determined to be 1.1%(n=7)and 1.8%(n=11),respectively.The unplanned visit rate at 30 days following TKA was 2.6%(n=16)and at 90 days was 4.6%(n=28).At 90 days,the unplanned readmission rate was 1.4%(n=9).Reasons for readmissions included medical(27.2%,n=3)and surgical(72.7%,n=8).Unplanned readmissions and visits within 90 days of follow-up did not substantially differ by age group(P=0.922),body mass index(BMI)(P=0.633),unilateral vs bilateral TKA(P=0.696),or patient comorbidity status(30-day P=0.171 and 90-day P=0.813).Reoperation rates after TKA were 0.66%(n=4)at 30 days and 1.15%(n=8)at 90 days.The average length of stay was 6.53 days.CONCLUSION In this study,there was a low readmission rate following TKA.There was no significant correlation between readmission rate and patient factors such as age,BMI,and co-morbidity status.
文摘BACKGROUND Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography(ERCP)is an accurate diagnostic method for choledocholithiasis and treatment option for stone removal.Additionally,ursodeoxycholic acid(UDCA)can dissolve cholesterol stones and prevent their development and reappearance by lowering the cholesterol concen-tration in bile.Despite these treatment options,there are still patients who experience stone recurrence.The clinical data of 100 patients with choledochal stones who were hospitalized at the Yixing People’s Hospital and underwent ERCP for successful stone extraction between June 2020 and December 2022 were retrospectively collected.According to the post-ERCP treatment plan,100 patients were classified into UDCA(n=47)and control(n=53)groups.We aimed to assess the clinical efficacy and rate of relapse in the two patient populations.We then collected information(basic demographic data,clinical characteristics,and serum biochemical indicators)and determined the factors contributing to relapse using logistic regression analysis.Our secondary goal was to determine the effects of UDCA on liver function after ERCP.Compared to the control group,the UDCA group demonstrated a higher clinical effectiveness rate of 92.45%vs 78.72%(P<0.05).No significant differences were observed in liver function indices,including total bilirubin,direct bilirubin,gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase,alanine aminotransferase,alkaline phosphatase,and aspartate aminotransferase,between the two groups before treatment.After treatment,all liver function indices were significantly reduced.Comparing the control vs UDCA groups,the UDCA group exhibited significantly lower levels of all indices(55.39±6.53 vs 77.31±8.52,32.10±4.62 vs 45.39±5.69,142.32±14.21 vs 189.63±16.87,112.52±14.25 vs 149.36±15.36,122.61±16.00 vs 171.33±22.09,96.98±10.44 vs 121.35±11.57,respectively,all P<0.05).The stone recurrence rate was lower in the UDCA group(13.21%)in contrast with the control group(44.68%).Periampullary diverticula(OR:6.00,95%CI:1.69-21.30),maximum stone diameter(OR:1.69,95%CI:1.01-2.85),stone quantity>3(OR:4.23,95%CI:1.17-15.26),and positive bile culture(OR:7.61,95%CI:2.07-27.91)were independent factors that influenced the relapse of common bile duct stones after ERCP(P<0.05).Furthermore,postoperative UDCA was identified as a preventive factor(OR:0.07;95%CI:0.08-0.09).CONCLUSION The intervention effect of UDCA after ERCP for common bile duct stones is adequate,providing new research directions and references for the prevention and treatment of stone recurrence.
基金financial supports from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.71633006,71874210,71874207,71974208)the Natural Science Founda-tion of Hunan Province,China(No.2020JJ5784)the Innovation-Driven Foundation of Central South University,China(No.2020CX049)。
文摘Using the International Country Risk Guide(ICRG)index to represent countries’political risk,the time-varying effect of political risk on copper prices was examined based on the time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression with stochastic volatility(TVP-SVAR-SV)model.The empirical results show that the impact of political risk on copper prices is time-varying and has tended to increase gradually in recent years.There are significant country-level differences in the impact of political risk on copper prices.Political risk has a stronger and longer-lasting impact on copper prices in exporting countries.In terms of risk sources,external and internal conflicts contribute most to international copper price fluctuations in the sample period.The impact of political risk on copper prices reaches an extreme level during the international financial crisis,the European debt crisis,and the election of Donald Trump.
基金Acknowledgements: This paper is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71072066, 71302183), the Social Science Fund of China's Education Department (14YJC790053), the Distinguished Young Scholars Fund of Sichuan University (SKJC201007, SKYB201402), and the Sichuan Provincial Social Science Fund (SC14C054). The usual disclaimer applies.
文摘This study attempts to investigate the effect of financial and political risk on Chinese outward FDI activities in 56 emerging economies for a period from 2003 to 2013. Exchange rate is taken as a main indicator of financial risks and political risks are evaluated using ICRG (International Country Risk Guide) index. Generalized method of moments with panel data of Chinese outward FDI (foreign direct investment) in new emerging economies is used to find how Chinese finns intend to invest abroad with respect to exchange rate level, volatility, and expectation. The major findings show that RMB appreciation proved to have a positive effect on Chinese outward FDI in emerging economies. But Chinese OFDI (outward foreign direct investment) seems not to respond to exchange rate volatility. The expectation of RMB's appreciation has positive effect on Chinese OFDI in emerging economies. Results also show that more political risk leads to more Chinese OFDI in emerging economies.
文摘To solve a real problem:how to calculate the reliability of a system with time-varying failure rates in industry systems,this paper studies a model for the load-sharing parallel system with time-varying failure rates,and obtains calculating formulas of reliability and availability of the system by solving differential equations.In this paper,the failure rates are expressed in polynomial configuration.The constant,linear and Weibull failure rate are in their special form.The polynomial failure rates provide flexibility in modeling the practical time-varying failure rates.
文摘Analyses different interest rate risks, presents a new model for assessment of interest rates and thereby establishes the framework for control of interest
文摘BACKGROUND Colon cancer is a common malignant tumor in the gastrointestinal tract that is typically treated surgically.However,postradical surgery is prone to complic-ations such as anastomotic fistulas.AIM To investigate the risk factors for postoperative anastomotic fistulas and their impact on the prognosis of patients with colon cancer.METHODS We conducted a retrospective analysis of 488 patients with colon cancer who underwent radical surgery.This study was performed between April 2016 and April 2019 at a tertiary hospital in Wuxi,Jiangsu Province,China.A t-test was used to compare laboratory indicators between patients with and those without postoperative anastomotic fistulas.Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors for postoperative anastomotic fistulas.The Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Colorectal Cancer was also used to assess postoperative recovery.RESULTS Binary logistic regression analysis revealed that age[odds ratio(OR)=1.043,P=0.015],tumor,node,metastasis stage(OR=2.337,P=0.041),and surgical procedure were independent risk factors for postoperative anastomotic fistulas.Multiple linear regression analysis showed that the development of postoperative anastomotic fistula(P=0.000),advanced age(P=0.003),and the presence of diabetes mellitus(P=0.015),among other factors,independently affected CONCLUSION Postoperative anastomotic fistulas significantly affect prognosis and survival rates.Therefore,focusing on the clinical characteristics and risk factors and immediately implementing individualized preventive measures are important to minimize their occurrence.
文摘Background: Treatment of Cervical cancer includes a combination of external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) with intracavitary brachytherapy (ICBT). ICBT helps to boost radiation dose to primary disease. Organs like rectum, bladder, sigmoid and small bowel lie close to the cervix region and these organs receive dose from EBRT as well as ICBT and we want to know the dose to these organ at risk (OAR). Materials & Methods: Dosimetric details of 174 ICBT applications done in 58 patients were retrospectively analysed. All patients received EBRT dose of 50.4 Gy in 28 fractions. All patients had ICBT, three sessions with 7 Gy prescribed to point A. Dosimetric data including dose to right and left point A and dose to OARs were recorded from Oncentra Planning System. Results: Mean dose to point A on right side was 6.89 Gy and left side was 6.91 Gy. Mean D2cc dose to rectum, bladder, sigmoid and small bowel was 3.5 Gy, 5.25 Gy, 4.75 Gy and 4.2 Gy respectively. Mean EQD2 dose combining EBRT and ICBT in point A was 78.7 Gy on right side and 79 Gy on left side. Mean EQD2 doses to D2cc of rectum, bladder, sigmoid and small bowel was 62 Gy, 74.4 Gy, 70.5 Gy and 66.5 Gy respectively. Conclusion: From the results of this dosimetric study it is evident that OARs like rectum, sigmoid, bladder & bowel are receiving only acceptable doses of radiation using point A prescribed CT based ICBT planning. Hence with regards to OAR doses, CT based ICBT planning with dose prescribed to point A is a feasible option.
基金The NNSF (10671072) of China"Shu Guang" project (04SG27) of Shanghai Municipal Education CommissionShanghai Education Development Foundation
文摘In this paper, we examine further annuity-due risk model presented by Cai (Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences, 16(2002), 309-324). We consider the computation for the distribution of duration of first negative surplus and the algorithm is shown for calculating probability that ruin occurs and the duration of first negative surplus takes any nonnegative integers values. Numerical illustration for the main result is given.
文摘International shipping market is a risky market associated with a variety of risks which shipping companies have to cope with. International shipping has been seriously hit by the financial crisis in 2008. Since then, this industry has experienced market downturn for a long period which was considered to be the longest period of depression in the history. This paper mainly focuses on the key market risks in international shipping including cyclical fluctuation risk, cost risk, freight rate volatility risk, and competition risk. It analyses the source of these market risks, and identifies some strategies to cope with these market risks. In the meantime, Maersk and China Ocean Shipping Group (COSCO), the world leading international shipping companies, are taken as two cases. Their strategies in market risk management are analyzed, which enable the reader to learn from their success and failure. Based on the international experience in market risk management in shipping industry as well as the real practice of Maersk and COSCO, this paper provides useful guidance for shipping companies to reduce market risks, overcome market downturn, and improve competitiveness.
文摘Interest rate risk represents one of the key forms of financial risk faced by banks. It has given rise to an extensive body of research, .mainly focused on the estimation of sensitivity of bank stock returns to changes in interest rates. However, the analysis of the sources of bank interest rate risk has received much less attention in the literature. It is essential that banks have to monitor, maintain, and manage their assets and liabilities portfolios in a systematic manner taking into account the various risks involved in these areas. Balance sheet risk of a bank can be categorized into two major types of significant risks, which are liquidity risk and interest rate risk (IRR). IRR is the risk to earning of capital arising from movement of interest rates. The need to manage IRR in Indian banks arises from movement of interest rates. The areas not much considered in the earlier research work are to manage IRR which influences critically the overall profitability of banks. The study was taken with an objective of analyzing the determinants of IRR and examining the strategy to manage such exposures testing the banks long run sustainability. The study had chosen 45 banks and collected secondary data for the financial year 2007 to 2012 to do the analysis of IRR management. The findings of the study were to suggest the ways to minimize the IRR and control its effect on the banks profit. The other findings were to test impact of IRR on the sustainability of the bank.
文摘As the core economic variable in the process of the integration of world economy,the change of the exchange rate has an important impact on the import and export,foreign exchange reserves,interest rates,capital flows and other macro and microeconomic factors.This paper first analyzes the status quo of RMB exchange rate risk and the advanced experience of exchange rate management of other countries.Then,the empirical method is used to analyze the characteristics of RMB exchange rate fluctuation based on the day-frequency data of USD/RMB,GBP/RMB,EUR/RMB and JPY/RMB from December 2011 to December 2016.This paper also respectively uses the GARCH,TARCH,EGARCH and PARCH model to fit four representative foreign currencies against RMB,and selects the optimal model to calculate VaR value.Finally,validity of the data is verified through the Chi-square distribution test.The empirical results show that the four sequences are non-normal and first-order monotonic sequences.Besides,there is a significantly high-order ARCH effect,and the GARCH family model has a better fitting effect.JPY/RMB is with lower exchange rate risk,while the fluctuation of EUR/RMB is significantly greater than other currencies.According to the international situation of financial market,the status quo of RMB exchange rate and the conclusion of empirical research,this paper puts forward that the marketization and internationalization of RMB exchange rate should be based on improving the financial system and environment.It is also suggested that the government should properly intervene in the foreign exchange market and make good use of the risk measurement model and commercial banks should further develop the financial derivatives to hedge the foreign exchange risk.
文摘In the paper the problem on the assignment of the bounds of decreasing rate for a time-varying linear control system is discussed. The sufficient and necessary condition for bounds of decreasing rate of a time-varying linear system to be assigned arbitrarily is presented. It is pointed out that for any given real number m, M, m<M, there exists a linear state feedback with time-varying gain matrix which makes the corresponding closed-loop system possess M and m as its upper bound and lower bound of the decreasing rate respectively. For the purposes of its application to system design the concept of the asymptotic assignment of the bounds of decreasing rate is also proposed. The method dealing with the asymptotic assignment is given too.
文摘Economy globalization inevitably requires financial globalization. The interest rate (IR) is decided by the market, which will bring about IR risks to commercial banks (CBs). This paper discusses the inevitability of fulfilling market IR in China and what IR risks Chinese CBs have to burden. It also analyzes the formation causes of IR risks from the exterior and the interior aspects.
文摘Objective To study the risk factors of surgical wound infection among the patients in department of abodominal surgery. Methods The factors on surgical wound infection were investigated by retrospective study. The diagnosis standard was based on Diagnosis Standard of Hospital Infection published by Ministry of Health.